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View Full Version : Locked Out of the House - The 2012 RRT Preview



benefactor
02-04-2012, 06:56 PM
As we head into the annual RRT, there is a different feel to this team than any other year. This team...for the first time in Duncan era...is starting to truly feel like a team in transition. It is bittersweet, as no one wants to watch father time catch up to the Spurs core and yet there is still a hint of excitement in the air. This excitement comes from the fact that Pop is doing what most of us have been on our knees begging him to do for years now, and that is embracing the youth movement. Spurs fans have grown weary of the endless carousel of washed up veterans and marginal, limitedly skilled role players that have attempted to shore up the bench and take up the slack while the Big 3 play their hearts out trying to put one more trophy in the case. Those days seem to be gone(Bonner notwithstanding), as Spurs fans watch players like Gary Neal, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard and Tiago Splitter bring energy and breathe new life into a team that has been branded many times as "the same old boring Spurs."

Between having to deal with lockout basketball(no camp) and the injuries, the results have been mixed so far. However, it seems like with every game the youth of the second unit is embracing the forced trial by fire and becoming more and more dependable. Several games here recently where I expected the white flag to wave early the bench mob stepped up and would have none of it. With no Manu and a suprisingly effective T.J. Ford both sidelined with injuries, the Spurs have still managed to put together a respectable 15-9 record and are current 1st in the SW Division...and this is without Parker and Duncan having to carry the team on their backs to try to get them there.

The biggest difference between this years RRT and any other year is the lack of an All-Star break to split up the trip. Pop has been quoted before as saying that he would rather stay out on the road instead of coming home for the ASB and considering the circumstances of the season we are in I am going to have to agree with him. With the bench unit playing as well as they are I think age old "coming together" theory that is associated with the RRT is more applicable than it's ever been. If they are going to get it together and figure out how to start winning on the road the best way to learn is tossing them out in the woods with the wolves and telling them to fight them off and get back home alive. One could easily say that more than any other year, this RRT is the pivitol point in the season. Will they come out of it focused and ready for the final two months of the season? We will soon find out.

Below I will list each team the Spurs play as well as some thoughts about that team and how I feel the match up will play out.

Memphis Grizzlies - 12-11(7-3 at home)

A little less than a week ago, the Spurs went to Memphis and put on an defensive clinic against the Grizzlies holding them to 73 points and 37% shooting. Rest assured that the Grizz will be thinking about that when the Spurs arrive for their first game of the RRT. The only good thing about the timing of this game is that Grizz will have to go to Boston the night before and turn around and come back the next night to play the Spurs. I still think they will be motivated to come out and get this game regardless of the back to back. The Spurs will likely need to go away from their most recent starting lineup that features Gary Neal at SG and go back to Kawhi Leonard to accommodate the match up with Rudy Gay.

Philadelphia 76ers - 16-7(12-3 at home)

Before that debacle last night against the Heat, the Sixers had been playing some pretty good basketball. They had won five of their last six and are sitting atop the Atlantic division. They have taken advantage of their favorable schedule which has given them only 8 games on road all season by posting a 12-3 mark at Wells Fargo Center. They are also playing some of the best defense in the league right now, holding opponents to a league leading 86.5 points per game. They also lead the league in point differential at +10.2 and are near the top of the league in defensive rebounding percentage and assists per game. It will be interesting to see how good they really are, as they have feasted on mostly bad teams during this home heavy first half schedule. The next two games should give us some idea, as they will go to Atlanta then come back home for the Lakers before the Spurs come to town. Regardless, the Spurs will need to play a disciplined game on both ends of the floor to get this game in Philly.

New Jersey Nets - 8-16(3-7 at home)

Saying that the injury bug has bitten the Nets is the understatement of the year. Losing Brook Lopez to start the season was only the beginning. Damien James is out for the year, DeShawn Stevenson is out at least another ten days, Mehmet Okur has been in and out of the lineup with back spasms and now they have lost their solid rookie guard MarShon Brooks(the second leading scorer on the team) to a broken toe that has him out indefinitely. The Nets were only able to dress 8 players against Detroit a few nights ago and had to resurrect Keith Bogans from the dead just to have that many. So that being said, the Spurs have no excuse to lose this game. Hopefully they can finish them off early on and the bench can carry them through while Parker and Duncan get a head start on the two days rest that are ahead.

Detroit Pistons - 5-20(4-8 at home)

Yes, you read that correctly...5-20. How bad are the Pistons? How about only playing 25 games and already having separate six game and seven game losing streaks? How about last in the league in scoring, below average rebounding and almost last in the league in assists. The Pistons are losing games by almost the same point differential that the Sixers are winning them. Beyond promising young big man Greg Monroe and a stacked draft coming up, Pistons fans don't have a whole lot to be excited about. With two days off and on the front end of a back to back, this is the ideal match up for the Spurs. Let's hope they can take advantage of it and not sleepwalk their way through what should be an easy win.

Toronto Raptors - 8-16(3-6 at home)

The Raptors are yet another team with very little good to talk about. They are basically a team of NBA role players with no go to player or veteran leadership. Combine that with a new head coach that had no camp to get his team in the direction he wanted them to go and Bargnani missing a ton of games with a calf injury you get an 8-16 record and a team without much to look forward to right now. Their season was essentially ended when they lost Bargnani and lost 8 games in a row in the process. Even with the back to back, the Spurs don't have much excuse for losing this game. In Raptors most recent two losses they got beat by a combined total of 59 points. No excuses.

Los Angeles Clippers - 13-7(10-3 at home)

After a couple of days off, the Spurs head to Lob City to play the Clippers. On paper the Clippers look like a match up nightmare for any team with their scoring ability and the problems that Paul and Griffin pose, but a closer look says they are very beatable. Though they are a top 5 team in the league in scoring they are also a #7 in the league in points allowed, giving up almost 98 points per game. Despite their athleticism, they are a below average rebounding team. The Spurs go into this game with a good chance at controlling the glass as they are one of the best rebounding teams in the league. If they can do that and keep Griffin from catching countless lobs at the rim then they have a good chance at stealing a win against a team that is very good at home.

Utah Jazz - 12-9(10-4 at home)

The Jazz are a team trying to rebuild after an attempted rebuild. With the Jerry Sloan era over and Deron Williams out the door the Jazz are now left with a mixture of veterans and young talent. Their future core of Hayward, Kanter and Favors has some promise but right now there is very little leadership to show them the way. Much like the Clippers, they are an inconsistent team that can score but give up almost as many points as the put in. It will probably be several season before anything clear is known about this team. They are badly in need of a star level player(namely a PG) to bring it all together and Corbin has big shoes to fill in a city that has seen nothing but Sloan for most of our lifetimes. After starting off hot their inconsistency has shown through as they are 3-5 over their last 8 games. As with the Clippers the Spurs should be able to exploit the Jazz poor defense and use their superior rebounding to get the win...but teams like this with young talent can be unpredictable. I have a gut feeling they lose this game.

Portland Trailblazers - 13-10(10-1 at home)

The Spurs and Blazers have something in common...both are outstanding at home and horrible on the road. This will definitely be a tough out on a back to back so late in the road trip. Thankfully, the Blazers will also have played a game the night before in LA(Lakers) and they are 2-6 on the second night of back to backs. They will also be finishing a span of 5 games in 7 nights so this game really could turn into a battle of wills. The Spurs beat the Blazers earlier this season behind strong efforts from Parker, Blair and Danny Green and Tiago Splitter. The rest of the team will need to step up even more if they expect to gut out a win in Portland.

Denver Nuggets - 15-8(7-4 at home)

The final stop on the road trip is the Denver Nuggets, who are an offensive machine right now. They are leading the league with a blistering 105 points per game and are second in the league in field goal percentage. The surprise player for Denver has been Al Harrington, who is averaging 15/6 and shooting over 50% from the field in only 26 minutes per game. Weary from the road, this will be a great test for the Spurs defense...but like the Blazers they will be catching the Nuggets on the second night of a back to back where Denver was forced to play the Clippers the night before. Earlier this season Denver came to SA and the Spurs put on their own offensive clinic shooting 55% from the field and hanging 121 points on the Nuggets behind a great effort by Danny Green. Hopefully by the end of the this trip they will have figured out how to put up similar numbers on the road.

jjktkk
02-04-2012, 07:03 PM
Nice writeup, thanks for posting.

Robz4000
02-04-2012, 07:10 PM
Solid write-up, and I like your takes on each match-up. However, you stated in the Spurs-Clippers preview that the Spurs were a good rebounding team. How is 22nd in the league good? Moving on, that Utah game honestly feels like one the Spurs should win. Spurs will win in MEM, NYJ, DET, TOR, LAC, and UTA. I expect the PHI game to be a blowout with the DEN and POR games up in the air. Getting Manu back will be the wildcard in most of these games; if he's back early in the trip (maybe for the NYJ, DET, and TOR games to get some rust off) they'll do much better on the latter half of the trip. If he isn't back at all, I see a realistic chance of the Spurs winning only 3-4 games.

benefactor
02-04-2012, 07:30 PM
Solid write-up, and I like your takes on each match-up. However, you stated in the Spurs-Clippers preview that the Spurs were a good rebounding team. How is 22nd in the league good?
Not sure where you got that number. The Spurs are top 10 in total rebounds and 5th in the league in defensive rebounding percentage.

Robz4000
02-04-2012, 07:35 PM
Not sure where you got that number. The Spurs are top 10 in total rebounds and 5th in the league in defensive rebounding percentage.
Just got it off ESPN randomly, tbh. Where are those stats from? I thought they were beginning to get better at rebounding lately, but I didn't think they were that good.

TD 21
02-04-2012, 07:48 PM
The most important stat when it comes to rebounding is percentage. The Spurs are currently sixteenth in the league, corralling 50% on the button. So they're not "one of the best rebounding teams in the league", they're merely average.

There's two reasons why they're not as good a rebounding team as they should be. 1) Duncan is playing further away from the basket more and as a result, his offensive rebounding has plummeted. However, in recent games, he's played in the low post more and has subsequently picked it up in this regard. 2) Blair has inexplicably fallen off the face of the earth when it comes to defensive rebounding. And it's not from playing next to Duncan (who's 5th in defensive rebound rate in the league), because he played next to him last season and was 6.3% better than he is this season. His defensive rebounding is so poor that Bonner is now edging him out.

benefactor
02-04-2012, 08:20 PM
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2012.html

Scroll down and select the stats to sort.

Again...not sure where either of you are getting this. They are not a good offensive rebounding team but they are an excellent defensive rebounding team and a much better rebounding team than the Clippers. So the point stands...they should be able to win on the boards against them

mystargtr34
02-04-2012, 08:24 PM
Not sure where you got that number. The Spurs are top 10 in total rebounds and 5th in the league in defensive rebounding percentage.

The Spurs are 5th in defensive rebounding.. and 25th in offensive rebounding. Perhaps thats where the 'Spurs are a bad rebounding team' came from.

Obviously though DRR > ORR.. although it would be nice for the Spurs to have a few extra offensive possessions.

mystargtr34
02-04-2012, 08:26 PM
And thanks for the writeup, Benfactor :tu good read.

TD 21
02-04-2012, 08:27 PM
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/sort/reboundRate

The Clippers are ranked 20th at 49.5%. With Martin inevitably taking the majority of Evans' minutes, they'll only get worse. So yes, the Spurs should be able to out rebound them. But the point stands: The Spurs are an average rebounding team.

benefactor
02-04-2012, 08:37 PM
I don't really care for that stat. It can be skewed by teams that aren't great on the offensive glass because they concentrate on getting back in transition. Defensive rebounding percentage is probably the best stat overall to show how good a team is at rebounding. It carries more weight because it shows how good a team is at using rebounding to limit the other teams extra possessions.

benefactor
02-05-2012, 01:11 AM
Good win tonight headed into the RRT. Hopefully it's a confidence booster that gets this trip started off on the right foot.

Fireball
02-05-2012, 03:41 AM
good stuff ... thanks benefactor

ElNono
02-05-2012, 04:19 AM
Thanks bene

jesterbobman
02-05-2012, 04:24 AM
Nice Summary. I'd think we should dominate the cupcake portion (Games 2, 3 and 4) and win those. 3-3 in the other games would be a good achievement, 2-4 is probably acceptable with how much everyone has sucked on the road this year, and the fact that the other teams in the RRT are good, and have played well at home.

timvp
02-06-2012, 11:26 AM
Great post, Benny.

I agree that this might be the most telling RRT of all. It'll be a long grind that will give us a good idea of what this team is made out of. The Spurs can afford to go 3-6 or 4-5 and still be in good shape in terms of making the playoffs.

But if the Spurs can put up a winning record on this RRT, then home court advantage in the first round would become the new goal.

MaNu4Tres
02-06-2012, 11:45 AM
Solid write up Bene :tu

manufan10
02-06-2012, 12:17 PM
Great post. Thanks 'factor. :tu

will_spurs
02-06-2012, 12:25 PM
Obviously though DRR > ORR.. although it would be nice for the Spurs to have a few extra offensive possessions.

It's tough to get an offensive rbd when the coach says you have to be in your team's half of the court by the time the ball rebounds on the ground...

TDMVPDPOY
02-06-2012, 12:30 PM
all those games are winnable man....

hopefully has worked out his roster rotations and set it in for the rest of the season instead of playin mind games each game

benefactor
02-06-2012, 12:34 PM
It's tough to get an offensive rbd when the coach says you have to be in your team's half of the court by the time the ball rebounds on the ground...
It's definitely a two edged sword. I used to rant about the horrible offensive rebounding but now I'm more inclined to side with the coach on getting back in transition. If you think about having to face a team like Miami or OKC it becomes pretty important, as the athleticism of both teams allows them to thrive on easy transition baskets. Not allowing easy baskets>potential for offensive rebounding opportunities IMO.

acoelho1
02-06-2012, 02:30 PM
Win or loss, I hope the Spurs bring some toughness on the road. I miss the road warriors of years past and they need to get back to that if a long playoff run is in their future.

The ADMIRAL 50
02-06-2012, 02:37 PM
great write up benefector :tu

definitely took a very optimistic view point, and I like it. The Spurs have every reason to be optimistic; if they can beat Memphis tonight (which I expect) and find a way to beat the Sixers then the next three games should be a cakewalk, setting us up with a 5-0 record and a lot of momentum for the final stretch of the RRT. That Philly game is really gonna be a tough one though.

Mel_13
02-06-2012, 03:05 PM
Great job, bene. I really appreciate the effort to provide such a detailed preview of the RRT. Thanks.



A couple of notes:


This excitement comes from the fact that Pop is doing what most of us have been on our knees begging him to do for years now, and that is embracing the youth movement.

The youth movement has been, too slowly for some, taking hold over the last several seasons. If we start with the 2008 draft of George Hill and look at the percentage of total minutes played by 1st, 2nd, and 3rd year players, we get:

2008-09: 8.7%
2009-10: 22.6%
2010-11: 34.2%
2011-12: 50.1% (would be close to 40% w/o the Manu and TJ injuries)




The biggest difference between this years RRT and any other year is the lack of an All-Star break to split up the trip.

This is the tenth RRT and the sixth time that the All-Star game will take place after the last game of the RRT.

All-Star break during RRT: 2003, 2204, 2009, 2010

After RRT: 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012

dylankerouac
02-06-2012, 03:06 PM
Great write-up. Thanks for sharing, sounds like the good team has a solid chance at getting some W's.

VBM
02-06-2012, 03:09 PM
Too long...still read. :toast Great writeup, facto. The RRT is now the Manu-watch. Looking forward to his return and how the team integrates him with the youngin's that have been playing in the backcourt.

will_spurs
02-06-2012, 03:36 PM
It's definitely a two edged sword. I used to rant about the horrible offensive rebounding but now I'm more inclined to side with the coach on getting back in transition. If you think about having to face a team like Miami or OKC it becomes pretty important, as the athleticism of both teams allows them to thrive on easy transition baskets. Not allowing easy baskets>potential for offensive rebounding opportunities IMO.

Yeah I was mostly commenting on why the OR rate is so low, but I'd rather guys fall back in transition than give easy fastbreak opportunities.

Nice write-up, by the way. I don't necessarily share your optimism but we will see. I see losses @ Philly, Clippers and Denver at least, one loss between Utah and Portland (unlikely we beat them both) and probably a 5th loss against a scrub team, because one of them is due a good shooting night on us, or a brainfart from Pop (e.g. putting Bonner 25 minutes on Monroe and allowing the rookie to score 30+ points).

But even at 4-5 it would still be ok.

Morg1411
02-06-2012, 05:06 PM
IMO, one of the toughest games in the trip will be in Philly. Not only are the 76ers playing well, but the Spurs traditionally get their asses kicked at the Wells Fargo Center. Hopefully the youth movement can help bring that to an end.

Mel_13
02-06-2012, 05:09 PM
IMO, one of the toughest games in the trip will be in Philly. Not only are the 76ers playing well, but the Spurs traditionally get their asses kicked at the Wells Fargo Center. Hopefully the youth movement can help bring that to an end.


http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=game&year_min=2003&year_max=&team_id=SAS&opp_id=PHI&is_playoffs=N&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&game_month=&game_location=R&game_result=&is_overtime=&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=date_game

VBM
02-06-2012, 05:17 PM
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=game&year_min=2003&year_max=&team_id=SAS&opp_id=PHI&is_playoffs=N&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&game_month=&game_location=R&game_result=&is_overtime=&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=date_game

Hmm, last two times SA has won in Philly, they went on to win the title that year. GSG :flag:

manufan10
02-06-2012, 05:21 PM
Hmm, last two times SA has won in Philly, they went on to win the title that year. GSG :flag:

:depressed

If it wasn't an even year, I would be happy.



:lol

benefactor
02-06-2012, 06:08 PM
The youth movement has been, too slowly for some, taking hold over the last several seasons. If we start with the 2008 draft of George Hill and look at the percentage of total minutes played by 1st, 2nd, and 3rd year players, we get:

2008-09: 8.7%
2009-10: 22.6%
2010-11: 34.2%
2011-12: 50.1% (would be close to 40% w/o the Manu and TJ injuries)

Thanks...nice stat work. I guess with the injuries forcing Pop's hand in really feels like this is the first year he has fully trusted such a large group of young players. It actually did start with Hill but we are in full swing now.


This is the tenth RRT and the sixth time that the All-Star game will take place after the last game of the RRT.

All-Star break during RRT: 2003, 2204, 2009, 2010

After RRT: 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012
Yeah...I didn't take the time to look that up. Thanks again. I guess those back to back years of the ASB splitting the road trip made it feel like it happens more often. I know better than to rely on my memory(don't do drugs, kids).

benefactor
02-06-2012, 06:11 PM
Too long...still read. :toast Great writeup, facto. The RRT is now the Manu-watch. Looking forward to his return and how the team integrates him with the youngin's that have been playing in the backcourt.
lol...I tried to keep the write up on each team as short as possible. I knew with nine teams it could get tedious pretty quickly.

Bruno
02-07-2012, 09:22 AM
Nice writeup, benefactor.

The game against Philly will be difficult to win. I expect Pop to quickly give up if Spurs start to be down. After the last two huge wins, losing it won't be a big deal at all.

After that, there are 3 games against bad east teams (Nets, Pistons and Raptors). Spurs should be able to win at least 2 of these 3 games.

The end of the rodeo road trip will be hard but Manu should be back.

Amuseddaysleeper
02-07-2012, 09:35 AM
Nice write up Benny.

After a tough RRT, the Spurs come all the way home to have a tough one against Chicago.

Gee, thanks NBA :lol

The thing with Philly is that they play such great D I think the Spurs will really struggle.

But like Bruno said, the next couple games are against cupcake teams, so those should help get us back on track.

The Clippers game will be interesting, Billups is out (likely for the season) with a torn achilles. Am curious to see how the Spurs fare against an improved Clipper team who are looking much better than when we last faced them.

DPG21920
02-07-2012, 10:16 AM
This was a big win from SA (beating mem). Spurs need to win the next three or at least go all out trying. They have the most rest for these 3 games with a day off before Philly, 2 days off before the nets and another 2 days off before Detroit. Philly is the most difficult but they have a day before and two after so they should fight for the win. Same with their two weakest opponents in NJ & DET.

TJastal
02-07-2012, 10:32 AM
Nice write up Benny.

After a tough RRT, the Spurs come all the way home to have a tough one against Chicago.

Gee, thanks NBA :lol

The thing with Philly is that they play such great D I think the Spurs will really struggle.

But like Bruno said, the next couple games are against cupcake teams, so those should help get us back on track.

The Clippers game will be interesting, Billups is out (likely for the season) with a torn achilles. Am curious to see how the Spurs fare against an improved Clipper team who are looking much better than when we last faced them.

No kidding (about Billups). Guess the clippers just became players in the JR Smith bidding war.

Mel_13
02-07-2012, 12:19 PM
#Sixers Hawes (sore Achilles) and Brand (sprained right thumb) are game-time decisions Wednesday, according to Collins.

http://twitter.com/tmoorepburbs

TDMVPDPOY
02-07-2012, 12:42 PM
how long is ford still out for?

Mel_13
04-24-2012, 09:07 AM
The youth movement has been, too slowly for some, taking hold over the last several seasons. If we start with the 2008 draft of George Hill and look at the percentage of total minutes played by 1st, 2nd, and 3rd year players, we get:

2008-09: 8.7%
2009-10: 22.6%
2010-11: 34.2%
2011-12: 50.1% (would be close to 40% w/o the Manu and TJ injuries)

That post was back on Feb 6th after 25 games.

Even with Manu's return and the addition of Diaw, Pop stuck with the young guys all season long.

Updated percentage for 2011-12 thru 64 games: 49.2%

benefactor
04-24-2012, 09:12 AM
:toast