Current projected record by Hollinger 41 wins - too low or high

[Rummpd]

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=playoffpredictor-081119 [explains the model]

Based on his simulation model* he has the Spurs at 41 wins [25-16], 94% chance of making the playoffs, and with about a 15% chance of making the finals and in a dogfight with two other teams to grab the 2nd seed in the West.


Factoring in the growth of the team and the better play recently of Duncan, Parker and Splitter minus Manu I think the model is off. I think they will win between 45 - 47 - looking at the schedule and assuming they will begin to do better on the road (and assuming Manu playing a key role after the ASG). Does anyone out there believe these Spurs will not win more than 41 barring another signficant injury?

Spurs have a slightly road heavy schedule going forward, but have also played the toughest SOS of any team in his top ten on his power rankings and that should also begin to even out (although most of the top SOS teams are in the West). They currently sit 7th in his power rankings and have played the 4th toughest schedule: http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings/_/sort/sos
*Somehow his model gives the Blazers with both a higher chance to go the finals and win than the Thunder so take the model for what is work but it is fun to follow this through the year and right now if you are an LAL or Mavs fan this model does not predict much hope.....

[bus driver]

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=playoffpredictor-081119 [explains the model]

Based on his simulation model* he has the Spurs at 41 wins [25-16], 94% chance of making the playoffs, and with about a 15% chance of making the finals and in a dogfight with two other teams to grab the 2nd seed in the West.


Factoring in the growth of the team and the better play recently of Duncan, Parker and Splitter minus Manu I think the model is off. I think they will win between 45 - 47 - looking at the schedule and assuming they will begin to do better on the road (and assuming Manu playing a key role after the ASG). Does anyone out there believe these Spurs will not win more than 41 barring another signficant injury?

Spurs have a slightly road heavy schedule going forward, but have also played the toughest SOS of any team in his top ten on his power rankings and that should also begin to even out (although most of the top SOS teams are in the West). They currently sit 7th in his power rankings and have played the 4th toughest schedule: http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings/_/sort/sos
*Somehow his model gives the Blazers with both a higher chance to go the finals and win than the Thunder so take the model for what is work but it is fun to follow this through the year and right now if you are an LAL or Mavs fan this model does not predict much hope.....


better that nothing, ill take it

:flag:

[Mal]

Not bad. Now it looks too low, but 2 weeks ago I would take it.

[George Gervin's Afro]

I'll take the 15% chance!

[The ADMIRAL 50]

His stuff definitely looks flawed when Philly and Portland have a greater chance of winning it all than Miami.

[cheguevara]

meh the numbers are just 1/2 of the equation.

you can't quantify choking, you can't quantify being a soft bitch like Dick Jefferson. His numbers really mean nothing

[jesterbobman]

Hollingers model is based on Current play, so it leaves out Manu playing more. I'm sure he knows it, and would predict that the Spurs would win more than 41 Games with Manu playing more, but it's unreasonable to model all the injuries, potential changes to rotations, Adjusting for Outliers in play etc.

45 Wins seems about right, though it depends who's minutes Manu takes. If he sabotages Green/Leonard Minutes we'll be a bit better, if it's RJ/Neal Minutes, Oh boy, hello Wins.

[TJastal]

Hollingers model is based on Current play, so it leaves out Manu playing more. I'm sure he knows it, and would predict that the Spurs would win more than 41 Games with Manu playing more, but it's unreasonable to model all the injuries, potential changes to rotations, Adjusting for Outliers in play etc.

45 Wins seems about right, though it depends who's minutes Manu takes. If he sabotages Green/Leonard Minutes we'll be a bit better, if it's RJ/Neal Minutes, Oh boy, hello Wins.

I hope Manu takes RJ's spot/minutes in the rotation but knowing Pop it will be Green's head sitting on the chopping block. Unfortunate as it is.

[Reck]

They'll end up 38-39, maybe 40 wins.

[Paranoid Pop]

Hollingers model is based on Current play, so it leaves out Manu playing more. I'm sure he knows it, and would predict that the Spurs would win more than 41 Games with Manu playing more, but it's unreasonable to model all the injuries, potential changes to rotations, Adjusting for Outliers in play etc.

45 Wins seems about right, though it depends who's minutes Manu takes. If he sabotages Green/Leonard Minutes we'll be a bit better, if it's RJ/Neal Minutes, Oh boy, hello Wins.

The team has has better victory % without Manu and a better road record. He's the Spurs Wade, let's trade him.

[Rummpd]

17 and 9 Spurs will win more than 24 out of their final 40 Mark it Down!

[Obstructed_View]

Healthy and playing well during the playoffs is all that matters. /thread

[Wild Cobra Kai]

41 wins translates into a 51 win season in 82 games. I think we're a bit better than that. He also has no understanding of the RRT. Barring injuries, we always finish strong.

[manufan10]

Too low, imo tbh fwiw

[Jimcs50]

I predict that they win at least 49 games, a chance at 50.

[FvckMavs]

A genius prediction!


I predict that they win at least 49 games, a chance at 50.

[Jimcs50]

A genius prediction!


Hence, my nickname.

[colargol]

:lol:lol:lol
Hence, my nickname.

[cheguevara]

meh the numbers are just 1/2 of the equation.

you can't quantify choking, you can't quantify being a soft bitch like Dick Jefferson. His numbers really mean nothing

:smokin

[Reck]

They'll end up 38-39, maybe 40 wins.

rofl.

Why I am not a betting man. :lol