The real reason why wardrums are beating on Iran

[cheguevara]

:wow we are fucked

Will Iran Kill the Petrodollar?

To explain this situation properly, we have to start in 1973. That's when President Nixon asked King Faisal of Saudi Arabia to accept only US dollars as payment for oil and to invest any excess profits in US Treasury bonds, notes, and bills. In exchange, Nixon pledged to protect Saudi Arabian oil fields from the Soviet Union and other interested nations, such as Iran and Iraq. It was the start of something great for the US, even if the outcome was as artificial as the US real-estate bubble and yet constitutes the foundation for the valuation of the US dollar.


But in late 2000, France and a few other EU members convinced Saddam Hussein to defy the petrodollar process and sell Iraq's oil for food in euros, not dollars. In the time between then and the March 2003 American invasion of Iraq, several other nations hinted at their interest in non-US dollar oil trading, including Russia, Iran, Indonesia, and even Venezuela. In April 2002, Iranian OPEC representative Javad Yarjani was invited to Spain by the EU to deliver a detailed analysis of how OPEC might at some point sell its oil to the EU for euros, not dollars.

This movement, founded in Iraq, was starting to threaten the dominance of the US dollar as the global reserve currency and petro currency. In March 2003, the US invaded Iraq, ending the oil-for-food program and its euro payment program.

Then there's China. Iran's energy resources are a matter of national security for China, as Iran already supplies no less than 15% of China's oil and natural gas. That makes Iran more important to China than Saudi Arabia is to the United States. Don't expect China to heed the US and EU sanctions much – China will find a way around the sanctions in order to protect two-way trade between the nations, which currently stands at $30 billion and is expected to hit $50 billion in 2015. In fact, China will probably gain from the US and EU sanctions on Iran, as it will be able to buy oil and gas from Iran at depressed prices.

So Iran will continue to have friends, and those friends will continue to buy its oil. More importantly, you can bet they won't be paying for that oil with US dollars. Rumors are swirling that India and Iran are at the negotiating table right now, hammering out a deal to trade oil for gold, supported by a few rupees and some yen. Iran is already dumping the dollar in its trade with Russia in favor of rials and rubles. India is already using the yuan with China; China and Russia have been trading in rubles and yuan for more than a year; Japan and China are moving towards transactions in yen and yuan.

And all those energy trades between Iran and China? That will be settled in gold, yuan, and rial. With the Europeans out of the mix, in short order none of Iran's 2.4 million barrels of oil a day will be traded in petrodollars.

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/casey_research/archive/2012/02/03/will-iran-kill-the-petrodollar.aspx

[cheguevara]

There is another consideration to keep in mind, one that is very important when it comes to making some investment decisions based on this situation: Russia, India, and China – three members of the rising economic powerhouse group known as the BRICs (which also includes Brazil) – are allied with Iran and are major gold producers. If petrodollars go out of vogue and trading in other currencies gets too complicated, they will tap their gold storehouses to keep the crude flowing. Gold always has and always will be the fallback currency and, as mentioned before, when currency relationships start to change and valuations become hard to predict, trading in gold is a tried and true failsafe.

2012 might end up being most famous as the year in which the world defected from the US dollar as the global currency of choice. Imagine the rest of the world doing the math and, little by little, beginning to do business in their own currencies and investing ever less of their surpluses in US Treasuries. It constitutes nothing less than a slow but sure decimation of the dollar.


And motherfuckers call Ron Paul crazy for trying to go back to the gold standard. we dropped the gold standard and pegged our money to oil.

:lmao

looks like Ron Paul will be right again. :wow

[TDMVPDPOY]

well if america doesnt like what china is doing, you can always hendge/pegged the fkn yuan...

[ChumpDumper]

Better written then most conspiracy theories. I'll grant that.

[RandomGuy]

However, this calculation of Iran’s possible actions could just as well be one of many reasons why China might eventually soften its objections to sanctions. If Iran is emboldened by the support it believes it has from China and others to resist Western pressure over its nuclear programme, then that, too, could lead to conflict. Israel, for instance, might take matters into its own hands, with a pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.

It is fair to assume that Chinese leaders are sincere when they say they do not want a nuclear-armed Iran. Wen Jiabao, China’s prime minister, was unusually explicit about this on January 20th. China, he said, “adamantly opposes Iran developing and possessing nuclear weapons.” China may resent the hypocrisy of Western leaders, who tolerate nuclear programmes in India and Israel, but it seems to accept that Iran’s acquisition of the bomb would be bad for regional stability.

Mr Wen was speaking in Qatar during a tour that took in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia—but not Iran. This carried a reminder to Iran that, big though its oil exports to China are, they come to only about half of Saudi Arabia’s. Not only would China want to be sure it had other sources of supply if Iranian oil dries up. It would also be wary of antagonising Saudi Arabia, a strong supporter of the American and European embargoes. And in fact Chinese purchases of Iranian oil have fallen sharply in January, supposedly because of a commercial dispute.

http://www.economist.com/node/21543567

[cheguevara]

Better written then most conspiracy theories. I'll grant that.

thanks! :tu

now go on keep believing we want to attack Iran because they are aquiring the BOMB. Because they will use it against as soon as they get their hands on one.


now which conspiracy theory is more nutty?

:lmao :lmao

[RandomGuy]

Better written then most conspiracy theories. I'll grant that.


There are many other historic examples of the US stepping in to halt a movement away from the petrodollar system, often in covert ways. In February 2011, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), called for a new world currency to challenge the dominance of the US dollar. Three months later a maid at the Sofitel New York Hotel alleged that Strauss-Kahn sexually assaulted her. Strauss-Kahn was forced out of his role at the IMF within weeks; he has since been cleared of any wrongdoing.

:rolleyes

Entertaining. Simplistic, and only really mildly informative.

Nothing like being able to say shit without evidence.

Oh the places you can go without that little thing.

Too bad most of those places don't tend to reflect reality.


Smart investors realize oil, like gold, is destined to rise dramatically and that investing in the right energy companies now will be like getting into the yellow metal 10 years ago.

:lol

While I cannot dismiss the OP simply based on the fact that it was written by a crank, I can decide to take his statements with a great deal of skepticism.

(chuckles)

"Gold is going to rise dramatically."

Gold is quite due for its plummet back to historical norms. Overdue, IMO.

I can only hope a lot of gold bugs keep buying into the gold bubble, so that when it crashes, at is surely must, they will have no one to blame for their stupidity but themselves.

[cheguevara]

gold might plummet back eventually. But first the dollar will plummet further down and faster.

What gets chuckles from me is to think that the dollar bubble will outlive the gold bubble.

but let's go ahead and keep believing Irani boogiemen will push the big red button as soon as it is installed in their console. :rolleyes

[ChumpDumper]

thanks! :tu

now go on keep believing we want to attack Iran because they are aquiring the BOMB. Because they will use it against as soon as they get their hands on one.


now which conspiracy theory is more nutty?

:lmao :lmaoWe don't want to attack Iran.

[cheguevara]

you and your living partner might not. But the guys who control the country do.

:lmao :lmao :lmao

[boutons_deux]

other countries will make cocktail of currencies for international exchange as alternative the US$ before they will go to a gold-only standard.

[Winehole23]

the guys who control the country dowho's that?

[ChumpDumper]

you and your living partner might not.What do you mean by that?


But the guys who control the country do.

:lmao :lmao :lmaoYes, please be specific here.

[The Reckoning]

jews, duh.

[Winehole23]

of course

[hater]

8y06NSBBRtY

[hater]

nYk_hgnsgo0

[cheguevara]

:lmao the Shah makes Ahmadinejad look like Snooki

[Winehole23]

There is an Israel lobby; it does have influence. There is also a military-industrial- congressional complex. It has considerable influence too.

Are these the only two relevant influences in government and decisions to go to war?

[boutons_deux]

the US/UK oilcos want to get back into Iran's oil, just like they were the impetus for invading Iran.

[cheguevara]

There is an Israel lobby; it does have influence. There is also a military-industrial- congressional complex. It has considerable influence too.

Are these the only two relevant influences in government and decisions to go to war?

Those are 2 good examples. I'd add the Oil Industry into the mix for sure.

[Winehole23]

what else is in the mix? who else controls our government?

[cheguevara]

what else is in the mix? who else controls our government?

very valid and penetrating questions. Let's go ahead and do the research and reconvene with the results. :toast

[Winehole23]

You're the one referred to "guys who control the country." Your reluctance to say what you meant is understandable.

[cheguevara]

You're the one referred to "guys who control the country." Your reluctance to say what you meant is understandable.

what are you a paparazzi? I answered your connundrums, read my posts and move on.

El Che has a full schedule, maybe boutons can help you out in your search for EVERY single influence in the US government...

[SA210]

xhZk8ronces

[Winehole23]

what are you a paparazzi? I answered your connundrums, read my posts and move on.

El Che has a full schedule, maybe boutons can help you out in your search for EVERY single influence in the US government...You answered nothing. Not in your own words, anyway. By implied assent to the characterizations of others, perhaps...

Your continued refusal to clarify your own comments in your own words or even to add any relevant examples of what you meant by "guys who run our government," is underscored by your phony asked and answered routine.

Are you rationing keystrokes, El Che? What's with the busy man routine? Are you ripping pages from WC's notebook?

[SA210]

zrUavLPgLqY

[Wild Cobra]

Are you rationing keystrokes, El Che? What's with the busy man routine? Are you ripping pages from WC's notebook?
Huh?

[Winehole23]

pretending to be too busy and important to unpack his own comments

[cheguevara]

You answered nothing. Not in your own words, anyway. By implied assent to the characterizations of others, perhaps...

Your continued refusal to clarify your own comments in your own words or even to add any relevant examples of what you meant by "guys who run our government," is underscored by your phony asked and answered routine.

Are you rationing keystrokes, El Che? What's with the busy man routine? Are you ripping pages from WC's notebook?


Those are 2 good examples. I'd add the Oil Industry into the mix for sure.

:bang

[Winehole23]

which you're a big champion of here, if you hadn't noticed

[Winehole23]

:banglimiting yourself to one? ok.

[cheguevara]

:lol wow

[Winehole23]

no position taken wrt to Israel, the Jewish lobby, the MIC, etc..?

[Winehole23]

or are we to take all that for granted?

[Wild Cobra]

pretending to be too busy and important to unpack his own comments
I usually elaborate when asked.

[Winehole23]

hmm. sometimes.

I'd say you usually writhe like a snake under close questioning.

[mavs>spurs]

If the dollar is ever removed from it's spot as the world reserve currency and people start paying for things in other currencies, it'll be the end of the dollar. The only thing that keeps it valuable throughout all the print and spend is the fact that there is still such a high demand for it in the world markets because everyone needs dollars to conduct business. The day that changes, game over.

[cheguevara]

If the dollar is ever removed from it's spot as the world reserve currency and people start paying for things in other currencies, it'll be the end of the dollar. The only thing that keeps it valuable throughout all the print and spend is the fact that there is still such a high demand for it in the world markets because everyone needs dollars to conduct business. The day that changes, game over.

thus why it is a bubble.

and all bubbles burst.

J5KZJebKJg4

[cheguevara]

:lmao Ben Bernanke

0AB_9m0eNso


Grayson: All right. We actually looked at one of the arrangements and one of the arrangements is 9 billion dollars for New Zealand. That works out to $3000 for every single person who lives in New Zealand. Seriously, wouldn’t it have been better to extend that kind of credit to Americans than New Zealanders?

Bernake: It’s not costing Americans anything, we’re getting interest back and it comes back, not at the cost of any Amercian credit. We are extending credit to Americans, too.

Grayson: Well, wouldn’t it necessarily affect the credit markets if you extend half a trillon dollars in credit to anybody?

Bernake: We are lending to all US financial institutions in exactly the same way.

Alan Grayson: Well, look at the next page, the very next page has the US dollar nominal exchange rate which shows a 20% increase in the US nominal exchange rate at exactly the same time that you were handing out a half a trillion dollars. You think that’s a coincidence?

Bernake: Yes.

Alan Grayson (Breaks out laughing at the sheer absurdity of Bernanke’s calculated refusal to acknoweldge the obvious no matter how obvious it is…).

[mavs>spurs]

yep, at this point over-reliance on the dollar is having the same effect irrational exuberance has in creating a bubble. this "demand" for the dollar at this point is unnatural and due to distortion of the market. countries are already looking for alternatives and starting to "ween" themselves off of the dollar. i saw that someone recently purchased oil from iran in gold, can't remember who it was. more countries will start using other currencies and methods of payment as the dollar weakens. Just look at the futures markets right now for currency. the 1mo, 3mo, and 6mo forward rates all have the dollar depreciating against nearly every currency.

[Winehole23]

nm

[cheguevara]

60 grand :wow

http://www.usgoldbureau.com/products/1-kilo-gold-bars

http://www.usgoldbureau.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/product_180/product-image/gold-bar-1-kilo.png

Each bar contains 1 kilo (32.15 oz) of pure 24 karat gold.
Kilo bars are an exceptionally convenient way of storing gold bullion. A 1 kilo bar is roughly the same size as an iPhone. If you're serious about owning raw gold, there's no better way to do it.

[RandomGuy]

gold might plummet back eventually. But first the dollar will plummet further down and faster.

What gets chuckles from me is to think that the dollar bubble will outlive the gold bubble.

but let's go ahead and keep believing Irani boogiemen will push the big red button as soon as it is installed in their console. :rolleyes

A solid prediction. A dollar collapse before a gold collapse. Noted, logged, and thread subscribed to for later review. :)

Maybe you can tell me all about how hyperinflation is arriving, and help out poor Parker?

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=164863

Maybe you could flesh out the specifics of the "dollar bubble"?

If gold collapses before the dollar does, what will you say? "They" wanted it to happen that way?


As for the Iranian boogeyman, do you have any statements by any senior U.S. government official that we should go to war because of Iranian petrodollar policy?

Or, for that matter, any senior U.S. official at all that is actively urging war with Iran for any reason?


Big claims require more proof than some internet blogger say-so.

Pony up, conspiracy boy.

[RandomGuy]

[b]Then there's China. Iran's energy resources are a matter of national security for China, as Iran already supplies no less than 15% of China's oil and natural gas. That makes Iran more important to China than Saudi Arabia is to the United States.

Missing from this analysis is that Saudi Arabia provides more oil to China than Iran does.
http://www.economist.com/node/21543567

Iranian actions to close the Straights of Hormuz are a rather blunt tool. Chinese shipments of oil from S.A. will be affected too.

Does the author note this fact? If not why not?

I would be willing to bet that the author was unaware of this fact. He also seems to be unaware of the fungibility of oil markets and the implication this has on the balance of global supply and demand.

This begs the question then, what else is missing from his analysis? Aside from any proof that Kahn was the target of a frame job because of this "petrodollar" stance, among others.

I find it highly amusing that political stability in the M.E. is now also China's problem. Welcome to the world stage, now help us solve the problem of the religious nutjobs running Iran.

[cheguevara]

A solid prediction. A dollar collapse before a gold collapse. Noted, logged, and thread subscribed to for later review. :)

Maybe you can tell me all about how hyperinflation is arriving, and help out poor Parker?

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=164863

Maybe you could flesh out the specifics of the "dollar bubble"?

If gold collapses before the dollar does, what will you say? "They" wanted it to happen that way?

How many times in the history of the world has gold collapsed?

on the other hand, how many times in the history of the world have currencies collapsed?



As for the Iranian boogeyman, do you have any statements by any senior U.S. government official that we should go to war because of Iranian petrodollar policy?

Or, for that matter, any senior U.S. official at all that is actively urging war with Iran for any reason?


Big claims require more proof than some internet blogger say-so.

Pony up, conspiracy boy.

Last time we went to Iraq, ALL the senior U.S. government officials told us that Iraq had WMDs. well that was bullshit. Why would anything they say be taken as truth??

[cheguevara]

Missing from this analysis is that Saudi Arabia provides more oil to China than Iran does.
http://www.economist.com/node/21543567

Iranian actions to close the Straights of Hormuz are a rather blunt tool. Chinese shipments of oil from S.A. will be affected too.

Does the author note this fact? If not why not?

I would be willing to bet that the author was unaware of this fact. He also seems to be unaware of the fungibility of oil markets and the implication this has on the balance of global supply and demand.

This begs the question then, what else is missing from his analysis? Aside from any proof that Kahn was the target of a frame job because of this "petrodollar" stance, among others.

I find it highly amusing that political stability in the M.E. is now also China's problem. Welcome to the world stage, now help us solve the problem of the religious nutjobs running Iran.

:lmao Iran won't close the straight. Don't believe the hype

The religious nutjobs being in Iran is thanks in BIG part to USA and Britain fucking with their democracy in the 50s, then USA helped Saddam kill millions of Iranians. The people in Iran were driven to the extremes. We fucked up, for the last 60 years and you want me to solve the problem in 1 thread :lol

[RandomGuy]

I didn't ask that you "solve" the problem.

I simply asked that you demonstrate a modicum of critical thinking and answer a rather relevant question about the quality of the analysis presented.

You also seem to state rather flatly that Iran won't close the Straights of Hormuz.

What leads to you think that this course of action will be avoided by the Iranian government? I would like to see some evidence supporting this.

We have rather direct statements to that affect from senior military officials, military excercises aimed at precisely that, and specific development and/or purchase of anti-ship missles that would effect that goal.

I think that, at present, most of this is simple bluster, but this regime has consistantly proven itself capable of serious miscalculations, as well as being insulated from reality to some extent about a great many things.

Do you find it impossible that they might provoke a military response of some sort, for the sole purpose of providing their restless population a convenient foil and exterior enemy so that their people will be more willing to ignore the sheer incompetence and tyrannical nature of the Iranian government?

[RandomGuy]

How many times in the history of the world has gold collapsed?

on the other hand, how many times in the history of the world have currencies collapsed?



Last time we went to Iraq, ALL the senior U.S. government officials told us that Iraq had WMDs. well that was bullshit. Why would anything they say be taken as truth??

So, you don't really have any evidence that any senior U.S. official is pushing for war with Iran because of their petrodollars policy.


You could have simply said no, it would have been much quicker.

[cheguevara]

Welcome to the world stage, now help us solve the problem of the religious nutjobs running Iran.

this is what you asked. And my answer is look at what the US and Western world has done to them in the past 60+ years first. My answer is it would take years of healing process for the Iranians to open up again. And keep closing them out and sanctioning them just gives the nutjobs a lot more power for the next few decades.


I think that, at present, most of this is simple bluster, but this regime has consistantly proven itself capable of serious miscalculations, as well as being insulated from reality to some extent about a great many things.

are you talking about the Iranian regime or US regime? Cause your sentence applies to both equally in recent years.


Do you find it impossible that they might provoke a military response of some sort, for the sole purpose of providing their restless population a convenient foil and exterior enemy so that their people will be more willing to ignore the sheer incompetence and tyrannical nature of the Iranian government?

about as possible as US attacking a country on bullshit pretenses

[RandomGuy]

As for gold/fiat collapses:

I don't know the definite answer to either question.

I do know the underlying premise you are trying to get at is illogical. Been there, seen it.

Go ahead and make the assertion though. You know you want to. BUWAHAHAHAHA.

When you do, and I point it out as being illogical, will you discard it, or simply ignore the fact that I have shown the reasoning faulty, and try some other copy/paste or dimly recalled saw?

[RandomGuy]

this is what you asked. And my answer is look at what the US and Western world has done to them in the past 60+ years first. My answer is it would take years of healing process for the Iranians to open up again. And keep closing them out and sanctioning them just gives the nutjobs a lot more power for the next few decades.



Actually I was referring to China.

They get to be a rising power with all the good/bad that comes with it.


I agree that giving in to demonizing the Iranian regime to some extent reinforces its legitimacy.

That is one of the reasons I think normalizing relations with Cuba is a good idea, and why reaching out to Iran is a good way to f*** with the people in power over there.

At the same time, the Iranian regime leaders *are* religious nutjobs.

[cheguevara]

As for gold/fiat collapses:

I don't know the definite answer to either question.

I do know the underlying premise you are trying to get at is illogical. Been there, seen it.

Go ahead and make the assertion though. You know you want to. BUWAHAHAHAHA.

When you do, and I point it out as being illogical, will you discard it, or simply ignore the fact that I have shown the reasoning faulty, and try some other copy/paste or dimly recalled saw?

What is illogical and laughable is to think that you can keep printing money out of thin air and believe the bubble will not burst eventually. What is funnier is not see the writing on the walls regarding the petrodollar.

But oh well. Go ahead and eat up everything the "senior officials" are telling you. Even after Iraq people don't learn. Good luck to you my friend. :tu

[RandomGuy]

What is illogical and laughable is to think that you can keep printing money out of thin air and believe the bubble will not burst eventually.


What is illogical and laughable is to think that human beings can ever fly. I mean people have been trying forever to do it and no one has done it yet. To think it might happen, and that we have advanced our understanding of flight to the point where heavier than air flight is possible is preposterous.

You keep believing that is possible, while those of us who know better get on with our lives.

[RandomGuy]

piVnArp9ZE0

Told you it was illogical, and essentially a trap.

Simply because some currencies have failed does not mean that the people managing our currency haven't advanced their understanding of such things to the point that we can avoid it.

Past peformance is no guarantee of future results. ;)

[RandomGuy]

X is a bad idea because X has failed the past.



If this is a logical statement, we should be able to reasonably fill in X, and expect it to generally hold true.

If one starts finding things that prove this to be counter to experience, then one can assume that things failing on the past don't directly imply automatic failure.



Not to say it can't happen, or never will, but if you want a logical basis to think it will, you must look elsewhere.

[RandomGuy]

But oh well. Go ahead and eat up everything the "senior officials" are telling you. Even after Iraq people don't learn. Good luck to you my friend. :tu

I apply the same sort of skeptical questioning to "senior officials", thank you very much.

*Your* problem is that you don't apply any skeptical questioning to things you already agree with, a hallmark of conspiracy theorists of all stripes.

You seem to be fairly bright and able to ask good questions. You should apply that to things you already believe as well. You will be surprised at the results, and how that improves your reasoning.

When you do, and you come to realize how shitty some of the theories and ideas you are presenting here really are, you have my condolences. Everybody believes stupid shit at some point, so don't beat yourself up too much.

[cheguevara]

:lol sorry to get you riled up comrade.

let's enjoy the game tonite! :tu

[ChumpDumper]

I'm trying to figure out why China would want to "destroy" or allow the "destruction" of the US dollar.

Perhaps che could explain their motives to me in detail.

[cheguevara]

where in this thread have I claimed China wants to destroy the dollar?

[ChumpDumper]

where in this thread have I claimed China wants to destroy the dollar?You have implied their complicity or acquiescence.

If you think they don't want it to happen, then in all likelihood it won't happen. That pretty much renders the thread moot.

[cheguevara]

You have implied their complicity or acquiescence.

If you think they don't want it to happen, then in all likelihood it won't happen. That pretty much renders the thread moot.

You don't think countries want independence from the allmighty dollar? Good for you. I unfortunately do, thus the point of the thread.

[ChumpDumper]

You don't think countries want independence from the allmighty dollar? Good for you. I unfortunately do, thus the point of the thread.So you do think China wants this to happen?

Yes or no.