Offensive Thoughts: Tim Duncan - Feb. 7, 2012

[timvp]

After early season offensive struggles, loud rumblings could be heard telling of the end of Tim Duncan. However, a funny thing happened on his way to the pasture: Duncan's offense returned. While his minutes are at a career-low level, his per-minute production has been better than expected.

Compared to last season, Duncan's per-minute scoring is up 5.9%. Even though he's shooting a career-low 48.1% from the field, his efficiency is virtually the same as it was last year (1.22 points per shot last season, 1.21 points per shot this season) because he's getting to the free throw line 11.8% more often.

In fact, this season is actually more similar to Duncan's stats for the 2005-06 campaign:

Tim Duncan's 2012 vs. 2006
Points per 36 minutes: 18.1 vs. 19.2
FGA per 36 minutes: 15.0 vs. 15.3
Field goal percentage: .481 vs. .484
Assists per 36 minutes: 3.6 vs. 3.3
Turnovers per 36 mins: 2.5 vs. 2.6

Duncan shot more and scored more in 2005-06, but this season he's averaging more assists and less turnovers.

Anyone who has watched Duncan play this year knows that he's going about things differently on the offensive end. Basically, he's relying on jumpers more than ever.

Here's a look at the percentage of Duncan's shots that are within ten feet of the basket, which accounts for everything from finishes at the rim to virtually all his post moves:

http://oi40.tinypic.com/a4u3a1.jpg

As you can see, Duncan has drifted away from the basket at a steady pace. While he was able to slow the decline a bit last season, this season's drop is the most severe of the group. Overall, he's gone from shooting nearly 70% of his shots within ten feet of the basket to shooting more than half of his shots from further than ten feet.

So far this season, Duncan has made himself look smart. Astonishingly, Duncan is shooting better on jumpers from 16 to 23 feet (52%) than he is on shots within three feet of the rim (51.4%).

The bad news: Duncan's perimeter jumper will cool off. In the last five seasons, he's shot 42% each year -- give or take a percentage point. And considering that Dirk Nowitzki, the world's all-time king of shooting long two-pointers, set a career-high mark last season at 51.5% from 16 to 23 feet, there's just no way Duncan stays at 52%.

The good news: Duncan will start shooting better at the rim. Last year, he shot 71.7% within three feet of the basket, so I can't imagine he will fall all the way to 51.4% and lose more than 20 percentage points in one season.

All told, I expect Duncan to continue to shoot around 48% from the field this year. His jumper will probably cool off to about 44-45%, but he'll start hitting closer to 60% at the rim.

However, a closer look at the game logs points to Duncan possibly rethinking where he wants to get his shots. Obviously, if that happens, all bets are off.

Up until about seven games ago, Duncan's stats point to him being content with shooting outside jumpers. But then in the recent games against the T'Wolves and Mavs (both losses), Duncan went a combined 2-for-10 on jumpers from 16 to 23 feet, while not attempting a single shot at the rim during the 56 minutes he played in those two contests.

After that pair of games, Duncan's shot selection changed dramatically. In the last five games (all wins), he has spent a lot more time near the basket, attempting 25 shots at the rim during this time frame.

The results of the change have been positive: 18 points per game on 54.8% shooting from the field. In the first 21 games of the season, he was averaging 3.4 attempts at the rim per 36 minutes and shooting 45.1% on those attempts. In the last five games, he's averaging 6.1 attempts at the rim per 36 minutes and shooting 64%. And while he's shooting his jumper from 16 to 23 feet less often during the last five games (4.4 attempts per 36 minuets versus 5.4 attempts per 36 minutes), his shooting percentage from that range is relatively the same (50% versus 52.4%).

Is this five-game streak a conscious tactical change by Duncan or is his aging body simply cooperating more for the time being? It's definitely something to keep an eye on.

Though it's clear that Duncan is still productive, albeit different, on the offensive end, is he still a positive impact on that end of the floor? The short answer: no, according to the advanced stats.

On the season, the Spurs average 102.44 points per 100 possessions when Duncan is on the court. The only players on the roster who have worse numbers are rookies Cory Joseph (101.87) and Kawhi Leonard (101.12). When Duncan is on the bench, the Spurs average 109.90 points per 100 possessions.

Historically speaking, there's no precedent of the Spurs being better on offense with Duncan on the bench.

http://oi40.tinypic.com/2460w06.jpg

In the graph above, the blue line represents points per 100 possessions with Duncan on the court, while the red line represents points per 100 possessions with Duncan on the bench. While it makes sense that the Spurs have become less reliant on Duncan's offense over the years, the catastrophic drop to the current state is quite odd, to say the least.

What could be causing it? The small sample size could be one explanation, although 26 games isn't exactly miniscule. Another explanation could be Manu Ginobili's injury, however that doesn't explain why the Spurs are able to do so well with Duncan on the bench.

Personally, I think it's a mostly a byproduct of an ill-formed starting lineup. Surrounding Duncan and Tony Parker with the biggest offensive liability on the team (Leonard), a bigman who is struggling mightily on the offensive end of late (DeJuan Blair) and a one-dimension gunner (Richard Jefferson) doesn't a good starting lineup make.

On top of that, I think Duncan shoulders some of the blame because he's been a ball-stopper more than ever this season, which I believe is due to him adjusting to his altered role. Subjectively, the ball and player movement when Duncan on the floor is rarely crisp -- though that should improve as the year goes on as everyone figures out their offensive niche. Oh, and yes, the return of Ginobili will help Duncan and everyone else on the offense end.

Even with Duncan's improved stats recently, the team as a whole isn't responding to him being on the court. In the last ten games, the Spurs are averaging 90.4 points per 48 minutes when Duncan is on the court. When he's on the bench, the Spurs are averaging 101.3 points per 48 minutes. That, obviously, is a gargantuan difference, however three other members of the starting lineup are in the same boat. The Spurs have struggled to score when Jefferson (90.8 points per 48 minutes), Blair (89.5 points) or Leonard (85.4 points) have been on the court in the last ten games. Duncan and those three happen to be the four lowest marks on the team, which adds to my confidence that the issue with the team's scoring with Duncan on the court is directly related to a broken starting lineup.

Going forward, while Duncan is no longer the all-time great offensive player he used to be in his prime years, I have no reason to believe he can't be really helpful on that end for at least the rest of this season. It'll be interesting to see if he continues his recent trend of going inside more often and if he can keep up his hot shooting from the perimeter. And though it's a bit troubling that the team struggles to score so much when Duncan is on the court, I'm not yet prepared to declare Duncan an offensive liability. Time together plus lineup adjustments brought on by the return of Ginobili I believe will be enough to kick the offense into gear.





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[timvp]

I know the residents of SpursTalk aren't the world's biggest fans of advanced stats, so let me know if any of you are interested in a similar breakdown for each player on the team. My plan was to tackle each player over the next week or so since there's finally a few breaks in the action, although now that I see this one, I think I might end up talking to myself by the end of this potentially boring project :lol

[Spur|n|Austin]

Thanks, great write up timvp! And yes, I would definitely be interested in similar breakdowns of other players.

[TDMVPDPOY]

he could score more if he didnt go away from his bank shots

[ElNono]

Thanks for the writeup... I think this season's crunch will make it even more difficult to try to gauge specifics about player's performances. There's seemingly a plethora of unusual circumstances (back to back to backs, 4 games in 5 nights, constant injuries, etc) that really makes it hard to take a stretch of games and draw conclusions from it.

Not that I wouldn't like to read any additional breakdowns, it's always a good read. I'm not so sure the information value is as high as in non-lockout seasons, that's all.

[MannyIsGod]

Those stats completely back up the notion of the 2nd unit having to bail out the starters (or Duncan if you prefer) after they dig holes.

[ChumpDumper]

Could you find the opposing teams' scoring during Duncan's time on and off the court? That would complete the picture for me if I understand these correctly (doubtful).

That might be a reason for playing Splitter without Duncan. If Tim's perimeter shooting is regular season fool's gold™, why bother acting like he can be parked out there during the playoffs while Splitter works down low.

[TDMVPDPOY]

im tellin you fools, timmay is a scrub since 08

[therealtruth]

Since long 2's aren't that efficient why doesn't he take a step back and shoot 3's? It could help spread the floor. The other issue is teams will eventually adjust if they know he can hit that shot consistently. They'll try to force him to put the ball on the floor. Right now he's basically getting open shots.

[Mel_13]

I know the residents of SpursTalk aren't the world's biggest fans of advanced stats, so let me know if any of you are interested in a similar breakdown for each player on the team. My plan was to tackle each player over the next week or so since there's finally a few breaks in the action, although now that I see this one, I think I might end up talking to myself by the end of this potentially boring project :lol

I, for one, love these posts and look forward to more.

As I read ST, there is a phenomena that I've come to call the Collective Wisdom of the Board (CWoB). Once CWoB is established on a subject it becomes a potent force. So advanced stats that support CWoB are embraced, while those that don't are rejected.

I would be interested in seeing a breakdown of all the possible two-man combinations that can be formed from our four bigs in terms of offensive and defensive performance. I'd do it myself if someone could point me to a complete set of the underlying data.

I doubt that CWoB would like the results of that study.

[Mel_13]

Thanks for the writeup... I think this season's crunch will make it even more difficult to try to gauge specifics about player's performances. There's seemingly a plethora of unusual circumstances (back to back to backs, 4 games in 5 nights, constant injuries, etc) that really makes it hard to take a stretch of games and draw conclusions from it.

Not that I wouldn't like to read any additional breakdowns, it's always a good read. I'm not so sure the information value is as high as in non-lockout seasons, that's all.

Good point.

I haven't seen stats to back it up, but I'm certain that effects of rest and home court are much greater this season than any recent season.

[jestersmash]

I'm very encouraged by the increasingly pervasive use of advanced stats on this forum to be honest. They really do make the arguments far more cogent. Great write up :tu. The graphs are a nice touch as well, although I think it might be better to use non-continuous line graphs (where each data point for each year, presumably, is connected by a straight line rather than a line that's artificially smoothed out between points), although this is just a fine point. I think for the purposes of this discussion, the smooth graphs serve their purpose just fine since we're just looking at trends and correlations - not to mention they look nicer as well.

I think it'd also be useful not only to see how Duncan fares near the rim in terms of FG%, but also where he ranks relative to his NBA peers. For example, 48moH (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/48moh-statistical-sleuthing-on-tony-in-the-paint) posted a telling stat 9 games into the season - Duncan's at-rim FG% ranked 137th among all 25 MPG+ players. That's 137 out of an eligible 144 players. Again, these stats are for the first 9 games of the season only. It'd be interesting to see if Duncan has improved in this category relative to his peers since then.

I'm not sure if Aaron McGuire has access to Synergy or if he's getting his stats from a freely available source. If it's the latter - I haven't found it.

[TJastal]

I know the residents of SpursTalk aren't the world's biggest fans of advanced stats, so let me know if any of you are interested in a similar breakdown for each player on the team. My plan was to tackle each player over the next week or so since there's finally a few breaks in the action, although now that I see this one, I think I might end up talking to myself by the end of this potentially boring project :lol

I find it rather fascinating stuff tbh...

[angelbelow]

I know the residents of SpursTalk aren't the world's biggest fans of advanced stats, so let me know if any of you are interested in a similar breakdown for each player on the team. My plan was to tackle each player over the next week or so since there's finally a few breaks in the action, although now that I see this one, I think I might end up talking to myself by the end of this potentially boring project :lol

Thanks for the post, cool read. Would be interested in Splitter's or Green's (more so his defensive impact.)

Duncan and Parker's two man game has been so bad that it often gave me that "ballstopping" feeling. obstructed_view is also not shy about pointing that out.

Duncan pounding the ball against Houston and New Orleans is nice but not a big surprise. Neither have capable defenders (Okafor and Dalembert both got into foul trouble.) Didn't catch the game against the Thunder but why did he end up shooting so poorly? Defense from Perk and Ibaka or just an off night? Also missed the latest Grizzles game but it was really encouraging to read that he did nice work on Gasol.

Didn't realize that Duncan was shooting so well from the perimeter either. I know that prior to the past 5 games - his better offensive games came when his jumper was on. Although 82games.com has his jumpshot efg% at 44%.

What would be your ideal starting lineup? Statistically Duncan, Blair, Jefferson, Neal and Parker has been the most successful, outscoring their opponent by 30 on the season while shooting a eFG of 51%. Defensively they've been pretty good too, holding opponents to 43% securing 51% of the rebounds available. Small sample size though.. this units only played 57 minutes together (but the 2nd most out of all the 5 player combos.)

[Darkwaters]

Excellent write up Timvp! If you wrote more of these I'd definitely read them.

[Bender]

Those stats completely back up the notion of the 2nd unit having to bail out the starters (or Duncan if you prefer) after they dig holes.
that's basically the same thing I was thinking when I read the OP

[benefactor]

Nice work. Would definitely like see more of these.

[SpurNation]

Great write up. Yes. Please keep up with more.


On the season, the Spurs average 102.44 points per 100 possessions when Duncan is on the court. The only players on the roster who have worse numbers are rookies Cory Joseph (101.87) and Kawhi Leonard (101.12). When Duncan is on the bench, the Spurs average 109.90 points per 100 possessions.

Regarding this, I don't think it will be as much a concern if the team can play better defensively and average other teams no more than 95 ppg.

I would be particularly interested in what Kawhi is providing defensively while defending other teams top perimeter players. Seems to me that (lately) he's holding some of the better perimeter players to well below their average. If that be the case...then his lack of offensive production may be acceptable if his defense is preventing others from scoring efficiently.

[timvp]

Could you find the opposing teams' scoring during Duncan's time on and off the court?

I didn't include it because I wanted to keep the focus on the offensive end of the court but, yes, it's useful for context. The Spurs give up 99.46 points per 100 possessions when Duncan is on the court, and 103.53 points per 100 possessions when Duncan is on the bench. While that improvement in defense makes up for some of what is lost on the offensive end, the Spurs actually outscore the opponents by 3.39 more points per 100 possessions when Duncan is on the bench.

As Manny said, the bench has been digging the starters out of holes so far this season ... especially lately.

[timvp]

I think it'd also be useful not only to see how Duncan fares near the rim in terms of FG%, but also where he ranks relative to his NBA peers. For example, 48moH (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/48moh-statistical-sleuthing-on-tony-in-the-paint) posted a telling stat 9 games into the season - Duncan's at-rim FG% ranked 137th among all 25 MPG+ players. That's 137 out of an eligible 144 players.

Good suggestion :tu

For the record, using the same criteria, Duncan's current at-rim FG% of 51.3% is 134th out of 147 players.

[Bruno]

Nice post, timvp.

Stats prove the feeling that vintage Duncan was back lately. He is playing closer to the rim and that's where he is the best. I think this change is because Duncan has decided it and not because his body feels better.

Five games ago, Spurs just lost against Mavs with the starters being awful. Spurs record was 12-9 and they weren't a top 8 team in the west. I guess Duncan realized after that game that he shouldn't coast that much during the regular season because otherwise Spurs won't make the playoffs. It's possible too that his pride was a little hurt by the benching against the "hated" Mavs. The timing of Duncan's surge fit damn well with a champion reaction. And Spurs are 5-0 since that.

Doing the analysis for every Spurs player would be interesting but I think you can drop the last part with points scored on/off the court. You will come ten times at the same conclusion: Spurs bench is scoring better than Spurs starting lineup. This subject deserves it own thread because it goes over one player impact. The starting lineup likely should be changed once Manu and Ford are back.

[DPG21920]

As with anything you have to get what the numbers are saying and understand context. At face value this assessment tells us less Duncan means more success, but we all know that isn't true, especially for playoff winning basketball. Same with Matt and the plus/minus stat. What I get from this is that Duncan is overall less effective in a bubble (obviously) but that it's likely the Spurs need changes in the starting lineup (I say likely because we have to see how Manu impacts that).

People want to use these stats to prop up their own arguments when they really should be used as guidance, not end all's. We know the metrics (for the most part) but we also know history. Tim is fine, the starting lineup without Manu is weak & the bench has really been part that has carried the team.

[ManuTastic]

Great analysis, gives much better info than most places do.
It's sort of basic/obvious, but is it possible the higher scoring when Duncan sits results from the OTHER teams' starters also sitting at that time? I.e., maybe our bench is simply better than other benches, but if our bench started against other teams' starters, they wouldn't score as well as Duncan and the other starters do.
If your stats already account for that, my apologies.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Excellent writeup, I'd also be curious to see a write up on other players. Especially Parker.

Also, in regards to shots at the rim stats, I think while Bonner has only taken a handful of shots at the rim this year (still more than we can say for RJ) I wonder if Bonner should it take it to the rim even more.

I remember Bruce's in-between game being forced to improve as his career wore on and defenders tries to run him off the 3 point line.

Maybe Bonner can continue to develop something similar. I mean it seems like the times he does take it to the rim he catches the defense by surprise that he should probably go for the dunk instead of settling for the awkward 5 foot floater.

Maybe that's a discussion for another thread, but please continue with the write ups, I think the info is fantastic. I know this thread was about Duncan, but the stats got me thinking about that Bonner thing :lol

[will_spurs]

Great analysis. Not sure it's worth doing for each and every player on the roster, though, but I'd really like to see it for Parker. For most of the others there's not enough data anyway, I guess.

[CubanMustGo]

Keep 'em coming. Analyses like this are what sets ST apart from the rest.

[lefty]

Keep 'em coming. Analyses like this are what sets ST apart from the rest.
http://gifs.gifbin.com/sw5022482yu.gif

[5in10]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2012.html

More stats like these for the spurs can be found here. Manu and Splitters offensive and defensive ratings are pretty badass...I cant wait for them to play together.:hat

[Dr Cox]

great stuff!

[DBMethos]

Love writeups like these. Keep 'em coming! :toast

[mingus]

I have felt like Pop has gone away too much from Duncan and structured the offense too much around TP and Manu the last few years. Sure, Duncan has declined some, but I really believe the perception is exaggerated and that Duncan's lower numbers are related to touches. If he's not getting touches, it is just going to feed the perception that he has declined a lot. Spurs need to keep giving him touches.

[TDomination]

I love these stats Timvp, i could read these all day long. Though my boss will be pissed lol

Seeing how the 2nd unit is scoring more, do you think it could be that they are shooting more? Do you have stats on avg. attempts taken when Duncan is on the court, and attempts taken when he is on the bench? Also, the 2nd unit usually consist of Bonner, Green, Neal who like to shoot a lot of 3's which will result in more points. Or how about ft's as well. Does it show that maybe the 2nd unit is getting to the line more?

[dylankerouac]

I love these stats Timvp, i could read these all day long. Though my boss will be pissed lol

Seeing how the 2nd unit is scoring more, do you think it could be that they are shooting more? Do you have stats on avg. attempts taken when Duncan is on the court, and attempts taken when he is on the bench? Also, the 2nd unit usually consist of Bonner, Green, Neal who like to shoot a lot of 3's which will result in more points. Or how about ft's as well. Does it show that maybe the 2nd unit is getting to the line more?

Good questions.

[LongtimeSpursFan]

Those stats completely back up the notion of the 2nd unit having to bail out the starters (or Duncan if you prefer) after they dig holes.

Starting lineup = Duncan, Parker, Jefferson, Leonard and Blair.

Second unit = Splitter, Neal, Green, Bonner, Anderson

Without Manu I would say there are a number of NBA teams that have better starting lineups than Spurs. Especially with Jefferson, Leonard, and Blair so inconsitent. However, when Manu eventually moves back into his starting spot I think the Spurs starting group can hold their own.

That second unit is pretty impressive when you consider how well Splitter, Neal, Green and Bonner have each had games where they produced big time. Splitter alone is one of the best bench guys in the NBA and could be a starter as well all have noted.

All in all when Manu and Ford finally come around this Spurs team is going to be two deep at every position. :lobt:

[spursfaninla]

Understood that this thread is focused on Duncan's impact on the offense.

From 82games.com, the +/- for each player is:

Manu: +20
Bonner +4.4
Green 4.1
Parker 4.0
Splitter 3.6
Jefferson +0.4
Duncan +0.1
Leonard -2.4
Blair -5.3
Neal -5.5

Seeing these numbers, it tells me that Splitter, Bonner, Parker and Green playing together is netting the greatest +/-, which I think accounts for the offensive observations TimVP is making, while also considering defensive impact. Parker is playing a lot of minutes with that second unit too. Interestingly, Neal is the biggest weak link +/- wise in the second unit, but if you look at 5 man units, the best five man unit is Neal in with the starters, and of the best win percentage of the 5 man units with the backups, Neal is in 2 of the 3 (the other is with parker instead).

Neal is really not an efficient shooter, and is a huge dropoff on the assists from Parker, but he benefits from playing with green, bonner and splitter evidently.

When Manu gets back, parker/manu/green/splitter/bonner will be killing it if you think +/- is a predictor of success. The starting unit, with the lion's share of minutes, has a net +/- of -2 on the year, btw.

According to 82games, Duncan is playing all of his time at center, because he is the biggest BIG we have. However, he is spending more than half of his time shooting outside. that SHOULD allow splitter to alternate with him in the post, EXCEPT that Splitter is TERRIBLE outside of the post. So, until Splitter develops a mid-range shot (if ever), he needs an outside shooting post player next to him. That is not a problem, considering he is more efficient than Duncan close, but it is a problem because it makes the offense predictable.

I think a big part of the dropoff in the offense generated with Duncan on the floor is that he is no longer generating easy looks for his teammates. That alone explains a lot.

What do we do? So, if we just insert Manu and Splitter into the starting lineup in place of Leonard and Blair, and make Blair, Green, rj, Leonard, and probably Ford the main alternating role players, does that work? See above, only if Duncan is 90% shooting from the outside instead of on the block, because Splitter is useless from outside the post.

The only other consideration I see that that we don't want Green's minutes to drop too much. RJ is producing more than Leonard, but continuing to develop Leonard, and thus him getting more time than RJ, still makes sense.

[Obstructed_View]

The Parker/Duncan and Manu/Duncan 2 man game has been deadly the last few years, and the Spurs were wise to go back to that well often. Not so much this year. Parker and Duncan have been the place where offense goes to die this season. Either they'll figure it out or they'll do something else. Right now it seems to be the latter and both of their games are benefitting from it.

[TDMVPDPOY]

The Parker/Duncan and Manu/Duncan 2 man game has been deadly the last few years, and the Spurs were wise to go back to that well often. Not so much this year. Parker and Duncan have been the place where offense goes to die this season. Either they'll figure it out or they'll do something else. Right now it seems to be the latter and both of their games are benefitting from it.

im not concern of the big 3s production, its the bench and kawhis production im concerned with....live by the 3pt line, die by he 3pt line....just another classic example of 08 season

[therealtruth]

im not concern of the big 3s production, its the bench and kawhis production im concerned with....live by the 3pt line, die by he 3pt line....just another classic example of 08 season

There's nothing wrong with taking 3 pointers but you want them generated more from the post than drive and kicks which are easier to defend. With Splitter's ability to draw double teams in the post it could really open it up for the three point shooters. That's the way the Spurs championships were won before. Duncan was able to score or draw double teams and kick out for a 3.

[TD 21]

Could you find the opposing teams' scoring during Duncan's time on and off the court? That would complete the picture for me if I understand these correctly (doubtful).

That might be a reason for playing Splitter without Duncan. If Tim's perimeter shooting is regular season fool's gold™, why bother acting like he can be parked out there during the playoffs while Splitter works down low.

It's fool's gold in the sense that him keeping up that percentage is unlikely, but it's not in the sense that he's an improved mid range shooter. He was already a good enough mid range shooter to pair with Splitter on offense anyway, though.

The only reasons for not playing them together often are: 1) No big on the team plays major minutes and because of that, them starting together would lead to plenty of Blair-Bonner together and 2) Pop doesn't view Splitter as someone who can defend stretch four's. I really don't think it's about the offense.

[RodNIc91]

I appreciate the the post Timvp. I do enjoy this analysis specially when they are short, but straight forward and concrete. I'd love to see Tony's progress for the season, as well as a deep analysis on the best catalyst for the defense.

[silverblackfan]

Hey I love the statistics and the break down of each players game by history. Great job and thanks for taking the time to do the analysis.