Offensive Thoughts: Tiago Splitter - Feb. 8, 2012

[timvp]

While there are a lot of bright spots to be found regarding a Spurs team that is 17-9 despite being without Manu Ginobili for all but four and a half games, I think the brightest spot of all is the huge strides Tiago Splitter has made on the offensive end. Early in the season, Splitter was a mess on offense; becoming even as effective as Fabricio Oberto wasn't a sure thing. Today? The sky is the limit for the big Brazilian.

Initially this season, Splitter was having trouble finishing in the paint area. He too often was using finesse moves and was routinely pushed out of position and getting his shots blocked. Even the basics, such as recognizing when he had a mismatch in the low block, were difficult for him.

However, nowadays he's a fantastic finisher who uses a combination of physicality and a good touch to score the vast majority of the time he calls his own number. He doesn't get blocked nearly as often and he's always looking to take advantage of mismatches. Whether it's a post-up opportunity on the low block or a reception following a pick-and-roll set, Splitter has basically been an automatic two points as of late.

The following graph illustrates how Splitter's scoring has exploded over the course of the season. The blue line is his season average for points per 40 minutes, while the red line is his points per 40 minutes in the previous ten games.

http://oi44.tinypic.com/2cf7hhz.jpg

As you can see, there's been a consistent rise in his ability to score. Recently, his red line has been north of 20 points per 40 minutes. Just how elite is that? Here's the complete list of bigmen in the NBA who score that often:

Points Per 40 Minutes
LaMarcus Aldridge - 25.9
Kevin Love - 25.4
Blake Griffin - 23.0
Al Jefferson - 22.5
Dwight Howard - 22.0
Dirk Nowitzki - 21.7
Chris Bosh - 21.5
Amare Stoudemire - 21.2
Paul Millsap - 21.2
Ryan Anderson - 21.0
DeMarcus Cousins - 20.9
David Lee - 20.2
Luis Scola - 20.1
Tim Duncan - 20.1

On the season, Splitter is shooting 62.3% from the field. As you can see in the following graph, his shooting has been amazing after a relatively cold start to the season. Again, the blue line is his shooting percentage on the season, while the red line is his shooting percentage over the previous ten games.

http://oi44.tinypic.com/312wair.jpg

Considering that only one player in the NBA is currently shooting better than 56.4% from the field, Splitter's field goal percentage is phenomenal.

Why is Splitter shooting so well? First of all, he knows his strengths. He's only taken 12 shots all season from outside of ten feet. Secondly, he's shooting a very solid 44.5% on shots between 3 and 9 feet from the basket; the league average from that range this season is 37.3%. And finally, Splitter rarely misses at the rim, shooting a sizzling 74.5% on shots within three feet of the hoop. Only two players in the NBA who shoot at least as often as Splitter does at the rim make a higher percentage of these shots: LeBron James (77.9%) and Andrew Bynum (75.8%).

Another strength for Splitter on the offensive end is his ability to get to the free throw line. His free throw rate, which is calculated by dividing field goal attempts by free throw attempts, of .48 is the best mark on the team and the 25th best in the entire NBA. And Splitter's .708 free throw percentage is impressive considering he shot .543 as a rookie last season.

Though most of Splitter's offensive stats are very encouraging, he does have one major weakness: turnovers. His turnover rate (the percentage of his possessions that end in a turnover) is a team-worst 19.76, which is the 33rd worst mark in the NBA. Over last season, while his assists are up 61.5% per minute, his turnovers are up 87.5% per minute.

Subjectively, a lot of Splitter's turnovers are acceptable because they are due to being too physical -- a positive trait in a bigman. However, he does tend to attempt questionable passes in traffic when he'd be better served looking to score himself. But then again, with as fast as Splitter is improving, he'll probably fix that sooner than later. And it's not like he's the first bigman to have an issue with turnovers. Both Tim Duncan and David Robinson had more turnovers than assists each year until their fourth seasons in the NBA.

We've established that Splitter is showing a lot of offensive promise. But does his presence on the court make it easier for the team to score? The answer to that question shows a fascinating amount of improvement.

In the first 16 games of the season, the Spurs were only averaging 94.8 points per 48 minutes when Splitter was on the court, which was by far the worst rate on the squad. But recently, he has turned that completely around. In that the last ten games, the Spurs are averaging 101.6 points per 48 minutes that Splitter is on the court and 89.4 points per 48 minutes that Splitter is on the bench. That first number is the highest mark on the team, while the second number is the lowest mark on the team. So, in other words, Splitter has gone from being the team's biggest offensive liability to being the team's most deadly offensive weapon.

If you've been watching Spurs games lately, it's clear to see why the offense is running so smoothly when Splitter is in the game. When Splitter posts up, he either scores or, if double-teamed, finds an open man. In pick-and-roll sets, it seems like he always finds open space as he's rolling to the bucket. Overall, the ball movement and player movement ramps up when Splitter is in the game. It also helps that opponents have been paying more attention to him in recent weeks because that has created open shots and clear driving lanes for teammates.

As the season progresses, I'm excited to see what the future holds for Splitter. It's difficult to imagine that his per-minute offensive production could get much better since he's already reached elite status in both scoring and accuracy. Plus his minutes per game will probably increase, which could alter the equation. But if can he continue to average 20 points per 40 minutes while shooting better than 60% from the floor, the Spurs would have a star player on their hands.

[jjktkk]

Nice writeup, thanks for posting.

[Phenomanul]

:tu

It also seems like Splitter has been getting to the line more often (more respect from the officials perhaps along with his increased usage rate).

The good thing for Spurs' fans is that he's also knocking down those freebies at a better clip...

If only he'd get even more playing time...

[Kuestmaster]

Good read as always timvp

We should use Splitter more on offense. More Tiago and less Blair please Pop

[TDMVPDPOY]

most of his points come from scoring against the other teams starters and best big man, cause we all know DUNCAN NEVER takes the big assignments....

SPLITTEr=>duncan

[Phenomanul]

I'm salivating at the thought of seeing "this version of Splitter" playing alongside a pick'n'roll genius like Manu... oooooh the potential...

What tandems take a higher priority though (in terms of usage rate)?

Splitter - Tony
Splitter - Duncan
Splitter - Manu
Blair - Manu
Blair - Duncan

[TDMVPDPOY]

I'm salivating at the thought of seeing "this version of Splitter" playing alongside a pick'n'roll genius like Manu... oooooh the potential...

What tandems take a higher priority though (in terms of usage rate)?

Splitter - Tony
Splitter - Duncan
Splitter - Manu
Blair - Manu
Blair - Duncan

u forgot splitter - ford

as for blair and whatever package you want to play with him...he should be on the bench with JA warming splitters seat...

[Mel_13]

Good stuff.

The numbers support what our eyes are telling us. They also raise some interesting choices for his utilization going forward.

His current success is enhanced by a significant portion of his minutes coming against opposition reserves and not having to share space in the lane with his teammates.

Moving him to a starting line-up that includes the Big 3 will impact both of those current advantages in a negative way. The second unit will certainly miss his production and his defense.

We all want to see what a Tim/Tiago tandem will look like given extended minutes, but I don't see it as a slam dunk that overall team performance improves with that change. At least in the short and medium term.

[Phenomanul]

u forgot splitter - ford

as for blair and whatever package you want to play with him...he should be on the bench with JA warming splitters seat...

to Blair's credit... he was highly effective when paired with Manu... look at advanced metrics for the season and you'll see that Blair has been more effective than Richard Jefferson, Matt Bonner, Danny Green, or even fan-favorite Kawhi Leonard. You don't 'sit and glue' that type of production to the bench, without at least trying to tap into it and ignite a resurgence with your best possible activator (i.e. Manu)...

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2012.html

[TDMVPDPOY]

We all want to see what a Tim/Tiago tandem will look like given extended minutes, but I don't see it as a slam dunk that overall team performance improves with that change. At least in the short and medium term.

timmay is a fkn pussy if he cant play with the splitter

he had no problems playin alongside rasho the goat, free nazr, oberto, elson, dice....its not like splitter is limited where duncan likes to operate

[Mel_13]

timmay is a fkn pussy if he cant play with the splitter

he had no problems playin alongside rasho the goat, free nazr, oberto, elson, dice....its not like splitter is limited where duncan likes to operate

Uhh, thanks for the input...

[Phenomanul]

Good stuff.

The numbers support what our eyes are telling us. They also raise some interesting choices for his utilization going forward.

His current success is enhanced by a significant portion of his minutes coming against opposition reserves and not having to share space in the lane with his teammates.

Moving him to a starting line-up that includes the Big 3 will impact both of those current advantages in a negative way. The second unit will certainly miss his production and his defense.

We all want to see what a Tim/Tiago tandem will look like given extended minutes, but I don't see it as a slam dunk that overall team performance improves with that change. At least in the short and medium term.

Yeah... that's the dilemma of trying to play the best offensive players all at the same time (and why I get slightly annoyed everytime someone here insists on playing them all together "as much as possible")... "there's only one rock to go around"... I'd rather spread the offensive load between the starters and the bench to ensure that Duncan, Manu, Parker and Splitter all have sufficient touches to remain efficient, and content (they're probably the only ones that should have their numbers frequently called)...

For defensive purposes in crunch time I could see a Duncan - Splitter tandem being used (which is really the only reason why those two should probably be used together more often - to build that chemistry)... Offensively however, they do seem to slightly diminish the effectiveness of the other...

[jcrod]

All that is left is for Pop to get his head out of ass and realize it, or if he does to pull the trigger and play him at least 25 mins a game. Bite some loses and have Tim and Splitter get comfortable with each other. Until this happens we won't have a chance come playoff time.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

i told you that you cannot get at a baby hook if you have the dudes shoulder ramming into your chest on the move but you wouldn't believe me.

[TDMVPDPOY]

All that is left is for Pop to get his head out of ass and realize it, or if he does to pull the trigger and play him at least 25 mins a game. Bite some loses and have Tim and Splitter get comfortable with each other. Until this happens we won't have a chance come playoff time.

i think tim doesnt know who is the superior player is.....

[tp2021]

Is there something I'm missing? I don't really follow what the graphs are trying to show me, what are the axes representing?

[therealtruth]

Pop is crazy. He said last summer Splitter was the linchpin for the team's success. Splitter has shown that ability this season but he continues to limit his minutes. Does he not want the team to succeed?

Seriously, Splitter's offensive and defensive ability and smarts give the team a dimension it hasn't had in a while. Yet Pop continues to believe more in Bonner/Blair. Splitter should be eating any minutes outside of Duncan and then Bonner/Blair getting any scraps that are left. If the team needs to get another veteran big to make it happen then they need to do it. Yet wasting his talent because of the need to avoid Bonner/Blair is ridiculous. Pop had no problem playing Blair/Bonner together at the end of last season despite everyone's objections.

[timvp]

We all want to see what a Tim/Tiago tandem will look like given extended minutes, but I don't see it as a slam dunk that overall team performance improves with that change. At least in the short and medium term.

Good point.

Though, obviously, I think it's worth finding out due to the long term potential. But yeah, in the short term, more Duncan and Splitter together would hurt more than help.


look at advanced metrics for the season and you'll see that Blair has been more effective than Richard Jefferson, Matt Bonner, Danny Green, or even fan-favorite Kawhi Leonard.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2012.html

Out of curiosity, which of the advanced metrics are you using to judge Blair in that link?

[therealtruth]

Yeah... that's the dilemma of trying to play the best offensive players all at the same time (and why I get slightly annoyed everytime someone here insists on playing them all together "as much as possible")... "there's only one rock to go around"... I'd rather spread the offensive load between the starters and the bench to ensure that Duncan, Manu, Parker and Splitter all have sufficient touches to remain efficient, and content (they're probably the only ones that should have their numbers frequently called)...

For defensive purposes in crunch time I could see a Duncan - Splitter tandem being used (which is really the only reason why those two should probably be used together more often - to build that chemistry)... Offensively however, they do seem to slightly diminish the effectiveness of the other...

So if you had the big 3 in Miami you would make sure one of them came of the bench to keep the team balanced? The bench doesn't have to be as good as the other team's starting lineup. Just good enough to keep pace with the other team's bench. That's why teams start their best players.

[TDMVPDPOY]

Pop is crazy. He said last summer Splitter was the linchpin for the team's success. Splitter has shown that ability this season but he continues to limit his minutes. Does he not want the team to succeed?

Seriously, Splitter's offensive and defensive ability and smarts give the team a dimension it hasn't had in a while. Yet Pop continues to believe more in Bonner/Blair. Splitter should be eating any minutes outside of Duncan and then Bonner/Blair getting any scraps that are left. If the team needs to get another veteran big to make it happen then they need to do it. Yet wasting his talent because of the need to avoid Bonner/Blair is ridiculous. Pop had no problem playing Blair/Bonner together at the end of last season despite everyone's objections.

the problem is he continues to play his worst players hoping they get out of a funk, but the reality is how many opportunities do you continue to give at the expense of the team winning???

[Mel_13]

Is there something I'm missing? I don't really follow what the graphs are trying to show me, what are the axes representing?

x-axis in both graphs is time expressed in units of games played

y-axis is defined in the text

[Mel_13]

Good point.

Though, obviously, I think it's worth finding out due to the long term potential. But yeah, in the short term, more Duncan and Splitter together would hurt more than help.


Also worth finding out even if they don't move Tiago to the starting line-up. A line-up featuring the Big 3 and Tiago should be a viable, practiced option to use down the stretch of critical games.

[jjktkk]

Yeah... that's the dilemma of trying to play the best offensive players all at the same time (and why I get slightly annoyed everytime someone here insists on playing them all together "as much as possible")... "there's only one rock to go around"... I'd rather spread the offensive load between the starters and the bench to ensure that Duncan, Manu, Parker and Splitter all have sufficient touches to remain efficient, and content (they're probably the only ones that should have their numbers frequently called)...

For defensive purposes in crunch time I could see a Duncan - Splitter tandem being used (which is really the only reason why those two should probably be used together more often - to build that chemistry)... Offensively however, they do seem to slightly diminish the effectiveness of the other...

Definitely can understand your frustration with the all offense players starting at the same time. Whats encouraging imo, is, unlike last year, Pop has some defensive pieces to work with in this year in Splitter, Leonard, and, to a lesser extent, Green.

[therealtruth]

I'll make an argument for Splitter starting based on the stats. Splitter's high freethrow rate means he will help to get the Spurs in the bonus early and draw fouls on the opposing team's starters. The guys in the staring lineup especially Ginobili can take advantage of that. Teams play differently when they start to pick up fouls because they don't want another. This ability is wasted on bench players. His high field goal percentage will benefit from the better playmakers in the starting lineup. His turnovers will decrease because he has better passing options.

[pookenstein]

:tu

It also seems like Splitter has been getting to the line more often (more respect from the officials perhaps along with his increased usage rate).

The good thing for Spurs' fans is that he's also knocking down those freebies at a better clip...

If only he'd get even more playing time...

I think that's a big part of why he's attacking the basket more frequently. IIRC he said that in an interview.

[Obstructed_View]

i think tim doesnt know who is the superior player is.....

It's officially time for you to change your fucking handle because it makes you look even more like a moron than your posts do.

[baseline bum]

Really encouraging analysis on Splitter. :tu

I can't see why anyone wants Kaman when Splitter is playing well.

[SpurNation]

This makes for an interesting situation when Ginobili returns. Pairing Parker with Duncan in the starting line up and Ginobili with Splitter as the main second tier could possibly allow the Spurs to increase their current offense efficiency. Then the use of Leonard as a starter and Green with the second tier should help decrease opponents offensive efficiency making up a solid in and out player rotation. Then end of game situations of Parker, Manu, Splitter, Duncan and either Green or Leonard creating an almost impenetrable defense that can close out games with offensive explosion.

If all stay healthy, by the end of the season, Spurs could be winning games by close to double digit margins.

[SpurNation]

This makes for an interesting situation when Ginobili returns. Pairing Parker with Duncan in the starting line up and Ginobili with Splitter as the main second tier could possibly allow the Spurs to increase their current offense efficiency. Then the use of Leonard as a starter and Green with the second tier should help decrease opponents offensive efficiency making up a solid in and out player rotation. Then end of game situations of Parker, Manu, Splitter, Duncan and either Green or Leonard creating an almost impenetrable defense that can close out games with offensive explosion.

If all stay healthy, by the end of the season, Spurs could be winning games by close to double digit margins.

[DPG21920]

Tiago has been spectacular at both ends, we all knew that and the stats bear that out. Im a huge fan of using advanced metrics but there reaches a point where you need to step back, use logic and simply play your most impactful players the majority of minutes. I'm all for limiting minutes some, especially with regards to Tim & Manu if you can do so and still win; which the Spurs have done. What I am against is not planning for what line ups give you the best shot to win a title. This is about using what knowledge you have, being realistic & not being stubborn.

[Penya]

I've seen/watched Tiago play for more than 10 years and... He just couldn't play more than 25-27mpg with two games a week here in Spain/Europe, because he's a bit of a China doll. Translate that into a 4-games-a-week schedule.

Pop is aware of the importance of Splitter right now, because he's playing at such a high level... And because an injury of one single big man would be fatal.

If only Pop had pulled him to play with Duncan last year... Now they might have developed a chemistry... Damn.

[Obstructed_View]

Definitely can understand your frustration with the all offense players starting at the same time. Whats encouraging imo, is, unlike last year, Pop has some defensive pieces to work with in this year in Splitter, Leonard, and, to a lesser extent, Green.

I'd love to see a mix of what we hope are the best players starting. At some point you have to think Parker, Manu, Leonard, Duncan and Splitter are your starters.

[silverblk mystix]

In other words...

Splitter is the player he has always been and he is now doing this IN SPITE of fuckhead coach's stupidity....

In other words....a few of us here have been saying this shit since last year...but Pop is a genius...uh-huh....

In other words...coach Pop CIA, BLAH-FUCKIN'-BLAH.....popsuckers don't want to hear that Splitter could have helped last year....

His hook shot was ugly, he is injury prone, he is weak, he is.....

Pop knows best, Pop is saving him, Bonner is not that bad, Bonner spreads the floor, Pop will save Splitter for the playoffs....


In other words...Pop needs to go...

[jjktkk]

Tiago has been spectacular at both ends, we all knew that and the stats bear that out. Im a huge fan of using advanced metrics but there reaches a point where you need to step back, use logic and simply play your most impactful players the majority of minutes. I'm all for limiting minutes some, especially with regards to Tim & Manu if you can do so and still win; which the Spurs have done. What I am against is not planning for what line ups give you the best shot to win a title. This is about using what knowledge you have, being realistic & not being stubborn.

Shouldn't this statement be saved pending on this season's outcome? Pop and his staff are expiermenting with lineups, finding out what and what doesn't work, which is planning for what lineups work going forward is it not?

[DPG21920]

Shouldn't this statement be saved pending on this season's outcome? Pop and his staff are expiermenting with lineups, finding out what and what doesn't work, which is planning for what lineups work going forward is it not?

We have all of last year where Pop didn't play Tiago/Tim and we are 26 games into a short season and much the same with limited Tiago/Tim.

[silverblk mystix]

Shouldn't this statement be saved pending on this season's outcome? Pop and his staff are expiermenting with lineups, finding out what and what doesn't work, which is planning for what lineups work going forward is it not?

you mean....like last year....

the team is winning...Pop has 4 rings....Pop is bringing him along slowly....Spurs have the best offense...Spurs are this....

Wait til the playoffs..his minutes will increase....

My name is Sctikkkk and my name is CUMdumpster....

we like watching the same movies over and over but we always expect a different ending....somehow...the movies always end the exact same way every single time....

but NEXT season...we will really hold Pop accountable....:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao :lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao

[DPG21920]

What we know doesn't work: Blair as a starter as evidenced by him being benched just before the playoffs. Bonner in the playoffs yet he still gets solid time.

Pop has done the "ooops, too late" move before numerous times.

[jjktkk]

I'd love to see a mix of what we hope are the best players starting. At some point you have to think Parker, Manu, Leonard, Duncan and Splitter are your starters.

I love your starting lineup. But judging from the regular season so far, it doesn't seem that Splitter will be starting. I also don't see RJ getting benched. IMO, the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs, Manu will be the only change coming to the starting lineup. But I also see Blair and RJ getting a quck hook if there not producing.

[jjktkk]

We have all of last year where Pop didn't play Tiago/Tim and we are 26 games into a short season and much the same with limited Tiago/Tim.

IMO, quite a difference in Tiago playing this year than last year.

[jjktkk]

you mean....like last year....

the team is winning...Pop has 4 rings....Pop is bringing him along slowly....Spurs have the best offense...Spurs are this....

Wait til the playoffs..his minutes will increase....

My name is Sctikkkk and my name is CUMdumpster....

we like watching the same movies over and over but we always expect a different ending....somehow...the movies always end the exact same way every single time....

but NEXT season...we will really hold Pop accountable....:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao :lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao

Please let me know if I'm using too many big words for you. Do you actually think Tiago is not contributing this year?

[DPG21920]

IMO, quite a difference in Tiago playing this year than last year.

My statement you quoted was about not giving your most talented lineup time together which is Tiago/Tim together. That's more of what I was referring to.

[jjktkk]

My statement you quoted was about not giving your most talented lineup time together which is Tiago/Tim together. That's more of what I was referring to.

I like it too, and it would be the best lineup imo as well. My guess why it won't happen, is that Pop does not think he can get anything from Blair if he benches him. So far this season, we have seen small samples of Tim and Tiago closing out games. I'm thinking we will see that going forward into the playoffs. In some ways this is similar imo to Ginoboli starting versers playing the 6th man role in seasons past. Its not who starts, but who finishes. And FWIW if the same ole, same ole, happens in this year's playoffs regarding Pop making bad personnel/coaching decisions, I'll be more than happy to grill up the crow and break out my "pop's an idiot" t-shirt. :toast

[DPG21920]

I just hope it doesn't get to that point, JJ. Due to circumstance there is a lot more on the line this than I imagined with regards to Spurs making a run. They aren't favorites but they have way more of a chance to reach the finals than I anticipated due to the west being so wide open.

IMO, just like last year in the playoffs, you can't just throw Tiago/Tim out there on the fly. That lineup needs consistent and ample time to learn; time they still aren't getting a season later when it was obviously needed.

[romsho]

Really good write-up. The numbers not all that surprising considering how good it looks in game right now.

[polandprzem]

timvp I would really like to read this but again I'm gonna skip this. Damn I think I do not have time for such a big post ....
Or damn maybe I'm lazy or I have not much motivation.

Damn I'm not a good person Im not a total max spurs fan!

[jjktkk]

I just hope it doesn't get to that point, JJ. Due to circumstance there is a lot more on the line this than I imagined with regards to Spurs making a run. They aren't favorites but they have way more of a chance to reach the finals than I anticipated due to the west being so wide open.

IMO, just like last year in the playoffs, you can't just throw Tiago/Tim out there on the fly. That lineup needs consistent and ample time to learn; time they still aren't getting a season later when it was obviously needed.

Agree. I know the Tim/Tiago combo finishing games is slowly evolving, too slow for alot of people. I believe, come playoff time, that Splitter will play a major role, whether starting, or playing significant minutes.

[spurs10]

Great write up, thanks! It's a great thing to see Tiago growing with such strides. With Manu out we sure needed that lift from somewhere..

[DPG21920]

That's all I care about JJ but I just don't see a way around Tiago/Tim in the playoffs barring a trade because Blair or Bonner won't cut it.

[ChumpDumper]

I've seen/watched Tiago play for more than 10 years and... He just couldn't play more than 25-27mpg with two games a week here in Spain/Europe, because he's a bit of a China doll. Translate that into a 4-games-a-week schedule.

Pop is aware of the importance of Splitter right now, because he's playing at such a high level... And because an injury of one single big man would be fatal.

If only Pop had pulled him to play with Duncan last year... Now they might have developed a chemistry... Damn.Fair post.

Others won't pay attention though.

[Obstructed_View]

I love your starting lineup. But judging from the regular season so far, it doesn't seem that Splitter will be starting. I also don't see RJ getting benched. IMO, the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs, Manu will be the only change coming to the starting lineup. But I also see Blair and RJ getting a quck hook if there not producing.

True on all points, but if everyone on the team made the same amount of money, my starting lineup is who everyone would agree on. At some point you've gotta let RJ earn however much of that ridiculous contract as he can with the time that he's given instead of starting him because he's making too much to bench him.

[jjktkk]

That's all I care about JJ but I just don't see a way around Tiago/Tim in the playoffs barring a trade because Blair or Bonner won't cut it.

Barring a miracle trade at the dealine, we're stuck with the Blair/Bonner combo unfortunately.

[Obstructed_View]

you mean....like last year....

the team is winning...Pop has 4 rings....Pop is bringing him along slowly....Spurs have the best offense...Spurs are this....

Wait til the playoffs..his minutes will increase....

My name is Sctikkkk and my name is CUMdumpster....

we like watching the same movies over and over but we always expect a different ending....somehow...the movies always end the exact same way every single time....

but NEXT season...we will really hold Pop accountable....:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao :lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao

I'll tell you the same thing I tell Chump, because you're becoming just like him: We know how you feel, we might even agree with part of it, but it's time to let it go and move on.

[Obstructed_View]

Really encouraging analysis on Splitter. :tu

I can't see why anyone wants Kaman when Splitter is playing well.

I think they want Kaman to take minutes from Bonner and Blair, particularly minutes where they might be victimized by bigger, more skilled players.

[ChumpDumper]

I'll tell you the same thing I tell Chump, because you're becoming just like him: We know how you feel, we might even agree with part of it, but it's time to let it go and move on.When did you tell me that?

I was apparently too busy experting the minor leagues to notice.

[jjktkk]

When did you tell me that?

I was apparently too busy experting the minor leagues to notice.

:lol

[angelbelow]

Thanks again, I mentioned in the Duncan thread that I would like to see a Splitter off. thoughts but it looks like you were a few steps ahead and already prepared one :toast

- Splitter has absolutely blown me away with his offensive display. When we signed him to a contract last season, I thought we were getting another savvy big men who can play defense, can use his size, and do the little things like take charges or alter shots. I had absolutely no expectations for him to become such a beast in the post.

Some more food for thought:
On the season, Splitter is involved with 3 of the top 5 player combinations when it comes to +/-. (Parker with 4, Green with 4, Bonner with 2, TD with 1) This definitely supports the data that Splitter is allowing our offense to flow better.

Hes improving at an incredible rate. A few weeks ago I compared his rookie season and sophomore season Per36 statistics and they were almost identical. Currently just about every category has improved. Timvp pointed out that hes average around 21 pp40mins but his usage from last season has only increased 1.6%. Overall his usage rate is still under 20% which is just a testament to efficiency on offense. His Ast% has improved from 5.3 to 9.7% as well.

Speaking of advanced stats, his win shares per 48 minutes is the highest on the team (beside Manu, but hes been hurt.) And his per is the 4th highest behind the big 3. I think we have a special player on our hands that has shattered all my expectations.. all I can say is that he needs to see a steady increase of minutes asap.

[Obstructed_View]

When did you tell me that?

I was apparently too busy experting the minor leagues to notice.

Fine, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt; maybe I've never told you: Your schtick gets old.

:lol "experting"?

[ChumpDumper]

Fine, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt; maybe I've never told you: Your schtick gets old.So does everyone's over time tbh


:lol "experting"?See, that's new.

[Obstructed_View]

So does everyone's over time tbh
Though I wish you'd learned that about thirty thousand posts ago, better late than never.


See, that's new.
And I thank you for that. I hope we're not still using that word five years from now. :toast

[ChumpDumper]

Though I wish you'd learned that about thirty thousand posts ago, better late than never.I knew that long ago and I didn't say I was going to change for you. You aren't.


And I thank you for that. I hope we're not still using that word five years from now. :toastI'm going to use it on KBP and see how it goes.

[ginobilized]

It really looks like Pop has brought him along at a good pace to succeed. We'd all love to see him play more, and we will, I'm sure. As a coach,Pop's mindset is on steadily developing the talent to find a role within the system. This is clearly happening now with Tiago. I credit Pop as much as Tiago. Many a coach could've bungled this by being greedy for too much too soon. I'm happy to see this working out so well right now.

[Dave_ET]

I like it too, and it would be the best lineup imo as well. My guess why it won't happen, is that Pop does not think he can get anything from Blair if he benches him. So far this season, we have seen small samples of Tim and Tiago closing out games. I'm thinking we will see that going forward into the playoffs. In some ways this is similar imo to Ginoboli starting versers playing the 6th man role in seasons past. Its not who starts, but who finishes. And FWIW if the same ole, same ole, happens in this year's playoffs regarding Pop making bad personnel/coaching decisions, I'll be more than happy to grill up the crow and break out my "pop's an idiot" t-shirt. :toast

Completely agree. Tiago has worked himself into being our #1 option on our second unit, which I much prefer compared to him starting with Tony and Tim, for two reasons:

1) Tiago gets more time to develop his game. Just because he’s scoring 20+ a game lately doesn’t mean he’s anywhere close to maximizing his offensive potential.

2) Tim and Tiago have similar games. Back-to-the-basket, pick and roll, great passing skills, etc. The strategy in the 2000s with Tim was to run the offense through him, and have good tall rebounders such as DRob Rasho Nazr and even Oberto to clean up the garbage while staying out of Tims way. Tiago doesn’t offer great rebounding (yet). And while we don’t run the offense through Tim anymore, we do run it through one of our Big 3, which still applies.

With that being said, Pop needs to FINISH with Tiago and Tim. I miss the days when our offense would keep us in the game for 3 quarters, then our defense would absolutely punish in the 4th when the opposing team is tired – that’s how you win games. Tiago offers a high percentage offense (props to timvp) to keep us in the game when the Big 3 is resting. As of late he’s shown us he can use his length to properly defend and close out games. Pop needs to let him develop those skills in crunch time situations.

[ChumpDumper]

Well, they're going to have to start parking Duncan 18 feet away from the basket if they are going to play together regularly.

[temujin]

I've seen/watched Tiago play for more than 10 years and... He just couldn't play more than 25-27mpg with two games a week here in Spain/Europe, because he's a bit of a China doll. Translate that into a 4-games-a-week schedule.

Pop is aware of the importance of Splitter right now, because he's playing at such a high level... And because an injury of one single big man would be fatal.

If only Pop had pulled him to play with Duncan last year... Now they might have developed a chemistry... Damn.

Excellent post and the real reason of Splitter's "limited" minutes.
I wonder if there ever was a game in which he played 40'.

On the positive side, Splitter was absolutely lethal in PnRs with Marcelinho Huertas.
The two of them absolutely killed the farsa's bigs in 2010 finals.
Marcelinho has a game and passing ability that reminds me of Ginobili.
We have seen some of that last year, there should be way more of it this year, with a more assertive Splitter.

[Phenomanul]

Good point.

Though, obviously, I think it's worth finding out due to the long term potential. But yeah, in the short term, more Duncan and Splitter together would hurt more than help.


to Blair's credit... he was highly effective when paired with Manu... look at advanced metrics for the season and you'll see that Blair has been more effective than Richard Jefferson, Matt Bonner, Danny Green, or even fan-favorite Kawhi Leonard. You don't 'sit and glue' that type of production to the bench, without at least trying to tap into it and ignite a resurgence with your best possible activator (i.e. Manu)...

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2012.html



Out of curiosity, which of the advanced metrics are you using to judge Blair in that link?

I could be reading it wrong but Blair has a higher PER than all four players I listed in my comment... and a higher Win-Share%/48 minutes than all but the Red Rocket...

I figure the second could be slightly biased if it depends of those he plays with the most (and since he's been a starter that would include Tony and Tim). But isn't the PER simply based on his production alone?

[TD 21]

Good stuff.

The numbers support what our eyes are telling us. They also raise some interesting choices for his utilization going forward.

His current success is enhanced by a significant portion of his minutes coming against opposition reserves and not having to share space in the lane with his teammates.

Moving him to a starting line-up that includes the Big 3 will impact both of those current advantages in a negative way. The second unit will certainly miss his production and his defense.

We all want to see what a Tim/Tiago tandem will look like given extended minutes, but I don't see it as a slam dunk that overall team performance improves with that change. At least in the short and medium term.

Probably not. But the long term upside of that tandem is much higher than any other on the Spurs roster or any that they could realistically acquire. That's why it makes sense to utilize it more and allow them and the rest of the starters to get used to it.

Only the Lakers have two center sized bigs who are impact players at both ends. The Spurs would have a significant advantage a lot of games, because teams would have to pick their poison, as far as which to assign their best post defender to. Pop needs to stop worrying about how Splitter would fare defending stretch fours and start thinking about how those players would have to defend him on the other end.

That move alone -- and the subsequent minute increase for Splitter, probably by 6-8 per game -- would vault this team to another level. That's why they need to find a third big that would enable them to start Splitter, while still having rim protection off the bench.

[Phenomanul]

Probably not. But the long term upside of that tandem is much higher than any other on the Spurs roster or any that they could realistically acquire. That's why it makes sense to utilize it more and allow them and the rest of the starters to get used to it.

Only the Lakers have two center sized bigs who are impact players at both ends. The Spurs would have a significant advantage a lot of games, because teams would have to pick their poison, as far as which to assign their best post defender to.

That move alone -- and the subsequent minute increase for Splitter, probably by 6-8 per game -- would vault this team to another level. That's why they need to find a third big that would enable them to start Splitter, while still having rim protection off the bench.

See right there... that's the key... I don't know if there are many capable post defenders who are out there looking for a team...

[jjktkk]

See right there... that's the key... I don't know if there are many capable post defenders who are out there looking for a team...

BINGO!!! if I had a prize to give, I'd mail to yea.

[therealtruth]

It really looks like Pop has brought him along at a good pace to succeed. We'd all love to see him play more, and we will, I'm sure. As a coach,Pop's mindset is on steadily developing the talent to find a role within the system. This is clearly happening now with Tiago. I credit Pop as much as Tiago. Many a coach could've bungled this by being greedy for too much too soon. I'm happy to see this working out so well right now.

Yeah I agree cause if Splitter played any more minutes he would be a scrub.

[therealtruth]

Probably not. But the long term upside of that tandem is much higher than any other on the Spurs roster or any that they could realistically acquire. That's why it makes sense to utilize it more and allow them and the rest of the starters to get used to it.

Only the Lakers have two center sized bigs who are impact players at both ends. The Spurs would have a significant advantage a lot of games, because teams would have to pick their poison, as far as which to assign their best post defender to. Pop needs to stop worrying about how Splitter would fare defending stretch fours and start thinking about how those players would have to defend him on the other end.

That move alone -- and the subsequent minute increase for Splitter, probably by 6-8 per game -- would vault this team to another level. That's why they need to find a third big that would enable them to start Splitter, while still having rim protection off the bench.

Exactly. I agree with TD and TS it would be pretty much pick your poison for the opponent frontcourt. If Splitter had been playing and starting last year he could actually have made Randolph and the Grizzlies work on the defensive end. Randolph is one of their weakest defenders but he didn't have to do anything to guard Dice/Bonner/Blair.

[Mal]

Tiago Manu duo from bench would kill every team second unit

[DPG21920]

Well, they're going to have to start parking Duncan 18 feet away from the basket if they are going to play together regularly.

I agree somewhat, but Blair starts next to Tim and has no outside game.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

For the love of God Spurs, please rebound.

[TDMVPDPOY]

why cant duncan and blair just play off for rebounds, then forcing their own shit...we got splitter for that who does a better job now...

[Capt Bringdown]

I'd be curious to see what Splitter's turnover rate is when paired with Parker. Seems to me Splitter is most frequently on the court with our chuckers. Put him in there with our court general and things might be a lot different IMO.

[BRs.Ganso]

Splitter always played pick and rolls with Huertas in europe

[ChumpDumper]

I agree somewhat, but Blair starts next to Tim and has no outside game.Could be part of the offensive problem with that lineup.

[angelbelow]

Fair post.

Others won't pay attention though.

I don't think its relevant. (unless he really is a soft china doll.) Hes in the NBA, he understands that he needs to condition himself for 82 games a season. And hes not the first player to come from playing 30-60 games a year to a full time NBA schedule.

Ricky Rubio went from playing 40-60 games a year averaging roughly 23 minutes a game to 34.8mpg this season. (38 mpg as a starter, 15 games.)

Blake Griffin went from 33~35 games a year in college to missing an entire year due to knee problems then proceeding to storm out 82 games at 38mpg.

Greg Monroe, 34 games in college with concerns of mental and physical weakness. He ended up playing 80 games at 28 mpg.

Jason Thompson who was also known as a physically weak player was able to muster 82 games at 28mpg.

I'm not trying to compare the players role or their situation to Tiago's, my point is that Tiago's been with the team for a full year. His cardio shouldn't be that bad unless hes just an unprofessional, selfish, china doll of a player. I'm not calling for 40 minutes of Tiago either but the cardio argument is a weak one IMO.

[Manufan909]

It's officially time for you to change your fucking handle because it makes you look even more like a moron than your posts do.

Glad to know I'm not the only one sick of that jackass. He makes about as much sense as ducks.:bang

Also, I don't feel like doing the math, but I know Splitter averaged over 30pts per 40min tonight. How insane is that shit!?!:downspin:

[TDMVPDPOY]

splitter didnt look tired or tired for any game this season, yet still get that stupid rookie treatment, unless pop playin his cards safe since he cant rely anything from his other small bigs on the team.....

splitter>duncan this season....

[ChumpDumper]

I don't think its relevant. (unless he really is a soft china doll.) Hes in the NBA, he understands that he needs to condition himself for 82 games a season. And hes not the first player to come from playing 30-60 games a year to a full time NBA schedule.

Ricky Rubio went from playing 40-60 games a year averaging roughly 23 minutes a game to 34.8mpg this season. (38 mpg as a starter, 15 games.)

Blake Griffin went from 33~35 games a year in college to missing an entire year due to knee problems then proceeding to storm out 82 games at 38mpg.

Greg Monroe, 34 games in college with concerns of mental and physical weakness. He ended up playing 80 games at 28 mpg.

Jason Thompson who was also known as a physically weak player was able to muster 82 games at 28mpg.

I'm not trying to compare the players role or their situation to Tiago's, my point is that Tiago's been with the team for a full year. His cardio shouldn't be that bad unless hes just an unprofessional, selfish, china doll of a player. I'm not calling for 40 minutes of Tiago either but the cardio argument is a weak one IMO.Were they all actually frequently injured as Tiago was?

Some players are just injury prone, you don't have to make it a character judgment.

[angelbelow]

Were they all actually frequently injured as Tiago was?

Some players are just injury prone, you don't have to make it a character judgment.

hmm.. I'm not sure what his injury history pre-NBA looks like tbh. Depending on that resume you could definitely make an argument for him being injury prone. But its not too late to change.. hopefully he remains healthy for the rest of his career.

If he ends up being injury prone then the Spurs are seemingly suffering from 5 years of bad luck.

[ChumpDumper]

hmm.. I'm not sure what his injury history pre-NBA looks like tbh. Depending on that resume you could definitely make an argument for him being injury prone. But its not too late to change.. hopefully he remains healthy for the rest of his career.

If he ends up being injury prone then the Spurs are seemingly suffering from 5 years of bad luck.I will defer to the Spanish/Euro posters, but I remember his being out almost every time I got a chance to see his team play on NBAtv when I was following him.

Pop does seem to be biased against giving big minutes to players with that kind of reputation/history and that can be disappointing, but it looks like Splitter's contributions can't be ignored. It may have to come down to Pop's turning Tim into DRob/Malik/Rasho to get out of Splitter's way if we're going to see them play together -- it could take a lot of convincing for Pop to go for that.

[timvp]

When did TDMVPDPOY turn into a Splitter spam bot?

[TDMVPDPOY]

I will defer to the Spanish/Euro posters, but I remember his being out almost every time I got a chance to see his team play on NBAtv when I was following him.

Pop does seem to be biased against giving big minutes to players with that kind of reputation/history and that can be disappointing, but it looks like Splitter's contributions can't be ignored. It may have to come down to Pop's turning Tim into DRob/Malik/Rasho to get out of Splitter's way if we're going to see them play together -- it could take a lot of convincing for Pop to go for that.

pop can throw his mind games in the bin, splitters NBA numbers are superior to his euro numbers...just look at it

[acoelho1]

Pop will come to his senses in game 3 or 4 in the playoffs after being pounded down low.

[angelbelow]

I will defer to the Spanish/Euro posters, but I remember his being out almost every time I got a chance to see his team play on NBAtv when I was following him.

Pop does seem to be biased against giving big minutes to players with that kind of reputation/history and that can be disappointing, but it looks like Splitter's contributions can't be ignored. It may have to come down to Pop's turning Tim into DRob/Malik/Rasho to get out of Splitter's way if we're going to see them play together -- it could take a lot of convincing for Pop to go for that.

Agreed. Splitter looks to be a special player and I definitely want us to milk the situation. Tim has looked comfortable playing from the high post this season so it could work.

I also don't think this is a Blair/Duncan situation where our offense becomes stagnant (which leads to duncan or parker trying to do too much). Splitter is arguably the best decision making post player right now and going to him usually leads to good results. He can finish consistently (unlike Blair) and he capable of making necessary passes. Hes also way more effective on the PnR (compared to Blair and Duncan) with Parker and that should only improve with Manu back. That makes me optimistic for a Duncan, Splitter, X, Manu and Parker end game.

[Darkwaters]

So when do we officially start calling them the "Big Four"?

[temujin]

I will defer to the Spanish/Euro posters, but I remember his being out almost every time I got a chance to see his team play on NBAtv when I was following him.

Pop does seem to be biased against giving big minutes to players with that kind of reputation/history and that can be disappointing, but it looks like Splitter's contributions can't be ignored. It may have to come down to Pop's turning Tim into DRob/Malik/Rasho to get out of Splitter's way if we're going to see them play together -- it could take a lot of convincing for Pop to go for that.

Splitter does have a solid history of muscle injuries throughout his career, of the types he had last year with the Spurs.
Muscle injuries are a bitch because they tend to relapse. The fact he has gained some weight, apparently, this year could only make things more dangerous.
If you have to risk playing Splitter for 35', it'd better be in key playoffs games, rather than regular season games that could be won by playing Bonner.

I am totally with Popovich on this one.

[therealtruth]

Splitter does have a solid history of muscle injuries throughout his career, of the types he had last year with the Spurs.
Muscle injuries are a bitch because they tend to relapse. The fact he has gained some weight, apparently, this year could only make things more dangerous.
If you have to risk playing Splitter for 35', it'd better be in key playoffs games, rather than regular season games that could be won by playing Bonner.

I am totally with Popovich on this one.

That's a dangerous game because it's hard to change the way you play in the playoffs too much. We saw how disruptive starting Dice was last season.

[Phenomanul]

Good point.

Though, obviously, I think it's worth finding out due to the long term potential. But yeah, in the short term, more Duncan and Splitter together would hurt more than help.


to Blair's credit... he was highly effective when paired with Manu... look at advanced metrics for the season and you'll see that Blair has been more effective than Richard Jefferson, Matt Bonner, Danny Green, or even fan-favorite Kawhi Leonard. You don't 'sit and glue' that type of production to the bench, without at least trying to tap into it and ignite a resurgence with your best possible activator (i.e. Manu)...

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2012.html



Out of curiosity, which of the advanced metrics are you using to judge Blair in that link?

I could be reading it wrong but Blair has a higher PER than all four players I listed in my comment... and a higher Win-Share%/48 minutes than all but the Red Rocket...

I figure the second could be slightly biased if it depends of those he plays with the most (and since he's been a starter that would include Tony and Tim). But isn't the PER simply based on his production alone?


After yesterday's game, Blair continues to have the 5th highest PER on the team...

[temujin]

That's a dangerous game because it's hard to change the way you play in the playoffs too much. We saw how disruptive starting Dice was last season.

Disagree. Dice was the last of Spurs problems in last year's playoffs.
At any rate, it is now a given that Bonner will eclipse in the POs, so you want an healthy Splitter in those games.
No unnecessary risks, unless Spurs are starting to lose games steadily, which doesn't seem to be the case at the moment.

[Obstructed_View]

Splitter does have a solid history of muscle injuries throughout his career, of the types he had last year with the Spurs.
Muscle injuries are a bitch because they tend to relapse. The fact he has gained some weight, apparently, this year could only make things more dangerous.
If you have to risk playing Splitter for 35', it'd better be in key playoffs games, rather than regular season games that could be won by playing Bonner.

I am totally with Popovich on this one.

Splitter's injuries are all from contact, and yes I suppose you could say that injuries from contact tend to relapse in a contact sport. I'm unsure how risk of a sprained ankle is justification for keeping him on the bench last season.

[TJastal]

Disagree. Dice was the last of Spurs problems in last year's playoffs.
At any rate, it is now a given that Bonner will eclipse in the POs, so you want an healthy Splitter in those games.
No unnecessary risks, unless Spurs are starting to lose games steadily, which doesn't seem to be the case at the moment.

So you're thinking Pop's plan is to throw Splitter either into the starting lineup once the playoffs start or increase his minutes two-fold?

Bad idea all around.

[TJastal]

So when do we officially start calling them the "Big Four"?

How about the "big 3 and a half"

Since Splitter is getting < 20 minutes a game

[temujin]

So you're thinking Pop's plan is to throw Splitter either into the starting lineup once the playoffs start or increase his minutes two-fold?

Bad idea all around.

I think he will not come out of the gates in PO, but he will be on the court at the end of close games, which, in my opinion, is the best measure of how much Pop thinks of him.

Right now the machine is turning, no need to change.

And this include the marvel boy soon to come back.

Slow him down

[temujin]

Splitter's injuries are all from contact, and yes I suppose you could say that injuries from contact tend to relapse in a contact sport. I'm unsure how risk of a sprained ankle is justification for keeping him on the bench last season.

A strain to the plantaris muscle, which caused him to miss the TC last year, is not from contact.
I agree, last season he should have played more in those irrelevant games at the end of the RS, and way more in PO.

[The Truth #6]

If Pop doesn't want to play them together, then reduce Duncan's minutes and give some of them to Splitter. The way Splitter is playing I see no obvious downside: Duncan gets rest, Splitter gets more experience. Duncan (and Tony) have been on a good roll, but it's crazy to think they can keep this up for the whole season.