ESPN Insider: Trades to improve Spurs' title odds

[DJB]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story?id=7554761&_slug_=potential-trades-make-san-antonio-spurs-title-favorites-nba&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba %2fstory%3fid%3d7554761%26_slug_%3dpotential-trades-make-san-antonio-spurs-title-favorites-nba

Please and thank you. :toast

[SenorSpur]

Despite being the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference last season, the aging San Antonio Spurs were left for dead after their first-round loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. Tim Duncan was too old, Manu Ginobili was too injured and the supporting cast was too weak. After a five-game win streak bookended by victories at the Grizzlies, however, it's looking like it's time to rethink things.

Here's how the TeamRankings.com future projections see the season turning out for Gregg Popovich's crew:

Chances of making the playoffs: 98.1 percent
Chances of winning the Southwest: 76.3
Chances of making the NBA Finals: 17.0
Chances of winning the NBA title: 6.0

As things stand, even with Ginobili's injury, the Spurs don't have terrible odds. Last season the Dallas Mavericks went into the playoffs with roughly a 6 percent chance of winning the title; just because a team isn't a big favorite doesn't mean it can't win it all. If Ginobili can return and then stay healthy, he might be enough to make San Antonio a strong contender.

Counting on all three Spurs stars to be 100 percent for the playoffs is risky business, however, and even if they are healthy, there are some holes in San Antonio's lineup. Here is a look at those weaknesses and some trades that would improve the Spurs' title odds.

Weaknesses

Wing scoring -- Richard Jefferson may be hitting 3s, but he's making barely 40 percent of his 2s and has a player efficiency rating well below the league average. Ginobili's return probably will make a difference, but a little more firepower off the bench still wouldn't hurt.

Defense from the 4 -- DeJuan Blair is great on the boards, but he's a bit undersized. Matt Bonner is a great shooter, but he's a little slow. Between the two of them, they are allowing opposing power forwards a PER of 17.6 (from 82games.com), a serious weak point for a team currently 13th in overall defensive rating. In their previous four championships, the Spurs were first, second, third and first in defensive rating, so improvement in this area is necessary.

(In)consistency -- Every season since their last championship in 2007, the Spurs have been in the top 10 in TeamRankings.com's consistency ratings, including being fifth this season. Consistency sounds like a good thing, but for a dark horse contender, it can actually be a detriment to pulling off playoff upsets.

A great example of why this is can be found with VCU in last year's NCAA tournament -- if you're a wannabe Cinderella, the numbers will tell you that your best strategy is to be a streaky team and just pray that you get hot at the right time. (For more of an explanation, click here.) The Spurs could use a hot-or-cold player who has the chance to catch fire and help deliver a key playoff win over the Oklahoma City Thunder or Miami Heat.

Deals

Fortunately for Spurs fans, they have a few tradable assets. Blair, Kawhi Leonard, Daniel Green, James Anderson, Gary Neal and Tiago Splitter are all skilled, young players who are expendable given the right deal. Here's a look at three deals that might help Tim Duncan win one for the thumb.

Bonner, Anderson and a first-round pick to Memphis for O.J. MayoMayo would solve the wing scoring issue for the Spurs, and when Ginobili returns, Mayo would add firepower off the bench. His addition might not help the defense but could turn San Antonio into the league's best offense.

Mayo also provides the variance that could help the Spurs score an upset in the playoffs. His career high in points, for example, is more than Bonner's and Anderson's combined; when he's hot, the guy goes off. He may keep the ball from Tony Parker and Ginobili more than desired, but that's the risk San Antonio may need to take to win it all.

Green and Anderson to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Anthony RandolphRandolph doesn't get much playing time behind Kevin Love and Derrick Williams, but he's only 22 and has had a PER over 16 during all four seasons in the league. He blocks shots, rebounds and finishes at the rim. Even if Popovich has to get him to focus on defense, Randolph could cheaply become the power forward of the present and future for a Spurs team that needs a long and athletic player at the 4.

Bonner, Leonard and Anderson to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Anderson Varejao
If there's a perfect player to address the Spurs' immediate defensive deficiencies, it's Varejao. His mediocre offense is paired with the length, quickness and intelligence needed to check the elite power forwards out West. That list is long, with LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin, Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Zach Randolph, Paul Millsap, and even possibly Love on the horizon as playoff foes. Varejao could be the defensive stopper to follow in Bruce Bowen's footsteps.

Make no mistake: With the West still looking for a group of strong favorites, a seemingly minor addition to the Spurs, when paired with Ginobili's return from injury, could vault them to the top of the conference. It would still take some luck once the Finals rolled around, but the Spurs' title hopes are more than just a distant dream.

[SenorSpur]

As much anticipation as I had when I started to read this passage, the trade scenarios they provided absolutely SUCK!

[SenorSpur]

As much anticipation as I had when I started to read this passage, the trade scenarios they provided absolutely SUCK!

[DJB]

I don't really mind the trade involving Mayo, if we could throw in RJ instead of Bonner...

[stxspurs]

Leonard should not be traded and I'm gonna lump green in there too...I think he will only get better...bonner/Anderson... Buh-bye

[mexicanjunior]

I like the Varejo trade if we can remove Leonard and replace it with a 1st round pick.

[SenorSpur]

Leonard should not be traded and I'm gonna lump serene in there too...I think he will only get better...bonner/Anderson... Buh-bye

That's one of the scenarios I hate the worst. Who, in his or her right mind, would suggest the Spurs trade a the team's most promising player (Leonard) halfway through his first season? This makes absolutely no sense.

[jjktkk]

As much anticipation as I had when I started to read this passage, the trade scenarios they provided absolutely SUCK!

Thanks for posting the insider Senor. And yes their trade scenarios suck. I don't see the wing position as a major problem, rather a manageable weakness. With Leonard, and Green, those two can cover any of RJ's shortcomings. Most of us know that our thin front line is our major problem. We have to hope that the Spurs can somehow get a big by trading Blair and a filler(2nd rounder,cash, etc...), because I don't see the FO using Leonard, or Splitter in any trade.

[chazley]

Love how you guys are willing to give up bottom of the barrel talent, but want excellent talent back in return.

I'd be willing to give up Green/1st round pick (which has extra value cause this draft is stacked), plus some other pieces (Anderson/Bonner/Blair/RJ/Neal) if it meant we got a player, hopefully a big man, who would help us win a championship this year. TBH, I'm pretty shocked that no one mentions the Spurs as a possible Dwight destination, considering we could offer a very enticing package including Tiago/Green/Anderson/Neal/two 1st round picks, and maybe add in RJ and take back Duhon/Hedo.

[jjktkk]

I like the Varejo trade if we can remove Leonard and replace it with a 1st round pick.

Any other year, I would agree, but because this is suppose to be a deep draft, I don't want the Spurs using this year's 1st rounder in a trade.

[SenorSpur]

After some thought and re-reading the scenarios, I do like the thought of the Spurs acquiring Anthony Randolph. Seeing as how he's not playing much for the T-Wolves anyway, that would make a lot of sense and perhaps he could be had.

What doesn't make sense is weakening the strength of the Spurs team (the wing spot) to facilitate such a trade. You don't give up two players, who play the same position. An Anderson and Blair for Randolph scenario would make much more sense for the Spurs.

[DJB]

Thanks for posting the insider Senor. And yes their trade scenarios suck. I don't see the wing position as a major problem, rather a manageable weakness. With Leonard, and Green, those two can cover any of RJ's shortcomings. Most of us know that our thin front line is our major problem. We have to hope that the Spurs can somehow get a big by trading Blair and a filler(2nd rounder,cash, etc...), because I don't see the FO using Leonard, or Splitter in any trade.

Someone made the point of how bringing in another serviceable big via trade will interfere with the development of Splitter and I feel that's a pretty legit point.

I'm starting to think that if we did make a trade for a big, it would be best that it wasn't a starting caliber player who would eat up all of Tiago's minutes. (See Chris Kaman.)

In all honesty I think the Spurs are lacking a 4th scoring option that isn't afraid to step up and take the reins. We all expected this out of RJ but it just simply hasn't worked out. RJ has lacked loads of confidence since becoming a Spur.

[SenorSpur]

Thanks for posting the insider Senor. And yes their trade scenarios suck. I don't see the wing position as a major problem, rather a manageable weakness. With Leonard, and Green, those two can cover any of RJ's shortcomings. Most of us know that our thin front line is our major problem. We have to hope that the Spurs can somehow get a big by trading Blair and a filler(2nd rounder,cash, etc...), because I don't see the FO using Leonard, or Splitter in any trade.

You're welcome, my friend. And YES, you've hit the Spur on the head.

The wing position is a manageable weakeness on offense, but with Green and Leonard hound the perimeter, that provides an advantage on defense. With RJ almost certainly out the door this summer, the Spurs cannot afford to gut that position too much.

I agree with your proposal of Blair and filler for a guy like Randolph.

[mexicanjunior]

Any other year, I would agree, but because this is suppose to be a deep draft, I don't want the Spurs using this year's 1st rounder in a trade.

If Hollinger's forecast remains true, we would be picking in the 20's. I don't see anyone in that portion of the draft that would be better than the acquisition of Varejo. Plus, removing Bonner from the roster would be addition by subtraction since he is completely unreliable in the playoffs, yet Pop will force feed him minutes till the bitter end.

[will_spurs]

Bonner, Leonard and Anderson to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Anderson Varejao
If there's a perfect player to address the Spurs' immediate defensive deficiencies, it's Varejao. His mediocre offense is paired with the length, quickness and intelligence needed to check the elite power forwards out West. That list is long, with LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin, Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Zach Randolph, Paul Millsap, and even possibly Love on the horizon as playoff foes. Varejao could be the defensive stopper to follow in Bruce Bowen's footsteps.

I haven't read something quite that stupid in a looooong time.

Let's trade the guy who is already following in Bowen's steps for a guy who "could".

[jjktkk]

Someone made the point of how bringing in another serviceable big via trade will interfere with the development of Splitter and I feel that's a pretty legit point.

I'm starting to think that if we did make a trade for a big, it would be best that it wasn't a starting caliber player who would eat up all of Tiago's minutes. (See Chris Kaman.)

In all honesty I think the Spurs are lacking a 4th scoring option that isn't afraid to step up and take the reins. We all expected this out of RJ but it just simply hasn't worked out. RJ has lacked loads of confidence since becoming a Spur.

Imo, Neal is a 4th option.

[Obstructed_View]

I'd rather try to keep some of those pieces to trade up later. I wouldn't give up Leonard or a first rounder unless it was for two years from now or something.

[jjktkk]

If Hollinger's forecast remains true, we would be picking in the 20's. I don't see anyone in that portion of the draft that would be better than the acquisition of Varejo. Plus, removing Bonner from the roster would be addition by subtraction since he is completely unreliable in the playoffs, yet Pop will force feed him minutes till the bitter end.

Bonners not going anywhere. Blair would be the guy getting shipped out imo. I like Varejao. He would be the perfect addition, I just don't want the Spurs giving up their 1st rounder for him.

[ChumpDumper]

Those are some funny trades.

[will_spurs]

Players realistically on the block: RJ, Anderson and maybe Blair. I'd be surprised to see the FO trade anybody else.

[jjktkk]

Those are some funny trades.

Smh, and to think they want people to actually pay for it.

[DJB]

Imo, Neal is a 4th option.

Neal's a great shooter, one of the best in the league, IMO - but Neil's not versatile enough to step up and drop 30 if he wanted to. I guess that's my definition of a "scoring option."

[mudyez]

trade1: fair deal for both sides...but we just can't trade big for small and loose our only stretch-4 just to get a player that is somewhat redundant with Manu/Green

trade2: I like it very much, as Randolph gives us many new lineup opportunities...I know, most of us fell in love with Green, but I'd like Randolph more (and Anderson nearly got cut and is a zero value throw in)...not sure MIN really does it

trade3: don't see us trading Leonard...wouldn't even think straight up for Sideshow...Leonard is the lockdownwing, we where searching so badly since Bowens retirement.

overall maybe not great trade ideas, but better than most stupid stuff you can find on several random boards with trade-machine-happy guys.

[ChumpDumper]

The Randolph deal almost makes sense for the Spurs -- not so much the Wolves.

[angelbelow]

Holy shit those are terrible trade proposals.


The Randolph deal almost makes sense for the Spurs -- not so much the Wolves.

Mentioned this is the trade discussion but that's really the problem with trading Blair. We want another big in return for Blair but who the heck is going to give up a taller prospect for a shorter one.

[Robz4000]

None of those trades are any good. Leonard, Green, and Splitter should not be considered alongside the Big 3. Same for Neal, but as much as I love him, if the right deal came along he can be parted with. Everyone else is open to discussion.

[crc21209]

That's one of the scenarios I hate the worst. Who, in his or her right mind, would suggest the Spurs trade a the team's most promising player (Leonard) halfway through his first season? This makes absolutely no sense.

As soon as I saw Leonard's name in there for Varejao....I stopped reading....

[ffadicted]

Bonner, Leonard and Anderson to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Anderson Varejao

I laughed at this

[Em-City]

:lol joke trades

[Wild Cobra Kai]

Players realistically on the block: RJ, Anderson and maybe Blair. I'd be surprised to see the FO trade anybody else.

They won't trade RJ. They don't want his salary, or any other player in his place, on the books next year. If there were no amnesty, he'd be #1 on the list.

[outmap]

Trade 1 http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7pv9hns
Trade 2 http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7hlfdu5

[BanditHiro]

As soon as I saw Leonard's name in there for Varejao....I stopped reading....

well you still ended up reading most of the article...

[Budkin]

Bonner, Leonard and Anderson to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Anderson Varejao

I laughed at this

I was just about to LMAO that... what a joke.

[8FOR!3]

Giving up Kawhi for Varejao would be awful.

Hell, I'd hate giving up Bonner over Jefferson at this point. He's playing the best ball of his career and he's in his physical prime at 30.

I'm a bit unsure about the OJ trade, but it's always nice to have a scorer like him on the team. I think the best trade on here is the Anthony Randolph one. I don't like the idea of losing Green, but if it got back Randolph I'd consider it. He could turn out to be a player.

[spectator]

Trade 1 http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7pv9hns
Trade 2 http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7hlfdu5

unfortunately, you do have to wake up after you've used the trade machine

[spectator]

i would do blair + ja/neal + 1st round pick (not this year) + 2-4 2nd round picks for taj gibson

i know that is a lot, but you have to tempt chicago to break that great team chemistry. the only thing we would be losing this year is a bench wing; and if the FO's mindset is to win now, i'd do this in a hurry.

still not sure chicago would do the deal.

[Brutalis]

Bonner, Leonard and Anderson to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Anderson Varejao


What a fucking joke.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Don't think the Spurs trade for any player who's not on an expiring contract unless it's a proper homerun type of deal.

[outmap]

unfortunately, you do have to wake up after you've used the trade machine

"A man can dream" my friend... :toast

[Darkwaters]

After some thought and re-reading the scenarios, I do like the thought of the Spurs acquiring Anthony Randolph. Seeing as how he's not playing much for the T-Wolves anyway, that would make a lot of sense and perhaps he could be had.

What doesn't make sense is weakening the strength of the Spurs team (the wing spot) to facilitate such a trade. You don't give up two players, who play the same position. An Anderson and Blair for Randolph scenario would make much more sense for the Spurs.

My thoughts precisely: http://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/6019989

[mountainballer]

i won't get crazy about this, as they are right about some issues and they are not totally wrong about what players might help. (outside Mayo, I can't see much sense in trading for him).
the trade proposals are somehow strange, but more realistic than the average ST posters proposals. if you want to bring in Varejao (who is in fact a player, who could make the Spurs a contender), you have to give up something. Varejao is playing a career season and not only LeBron mentions him in ASG talks. of course I wouldn't want Leonard in a trade for Varejao and if it takes Leonard, I would veto it if I had the power.
BUT...the author is right when he identifies him as the only asset that could make a trade attractive for the Cavs. if he thinks it's worth to sacrifice Leonard for Varejao, it's at least a legit position.
but we won't give up Leonard, so we won't land Varejao. end of story.

I like the idea of taking a flyer on Randoph. he might in fact be available, but I still bet Anderson+Blair won't get it done. they will want our 2012 1st rounder and they don't really have a need for Blair. Anderson + 2012 1st will be the price. I would pull the trigger considering Randolph's age, what makes him comapreable to a college senior.

[Waps1980]

Whats the point of the OJ trade Pop will just turn him into a corner 3 point shooter and remove any chance he has to be a slasher. We have to much scoring power with TD, TP and Manu the 4th wheel gets left behind and turned into a 3 point shooter.

[SpurNation]

I like the Varejo trade if we can remove Leonard and replace it with a 1st round pick.

All about getting Varejao. :tu

[Bruno]

Anderson+Blair for Randolph seem like a fine and fair trade. I can see both teams doing it.

[slick'81]

lol none of those deals make any sense for those teams especially the cleveland 1

[Sausage]

I wouldn't mind the OJ Mayo trade at all and I don't see the Spurs giving up that much for an injury prone Varejao.

[SpurNation]

1)Trade ideas almost always never make complete sense for all teams involved.

2) Trades that actually happen most always concur with statement 1.

3) When is the last time Spurs made an in season trade whether it made sense to do so or not?

Out of all the scenarios presented... I would think Varejao (though not approving of the proposal presented in the article) would be the player most needed to round out the Spurs roster with the least amount of "training" to get acclimated enough to help the team push for the finals this year.

[SpurNation]

Big V has always been a spurs fav. He has too big a contract for us to get and sorry Im not giving up KL in a deal. If the spurs could ship RJ and a first with Anderson for him and a second rounder I would jump on it.

I second that as a preference. But would not balk at the Randolph proposal either.

[CGD]

I like the Anthony Randolph deal. This guy is oozing with offensive talent, and has never been on a good team that would push him to that next level. Wolves get a look at some young talent in a package built around JA and if it doesn't work out they get some cap relief after this season. All this for a player that is buried on their bench behind Love, Williams, Pekovic, Miller and Darko.

[Bruno]

All this for a player that is buried on their bench behind Love, Williams, Pekovic, Miller and Darko.

And Tolliver.

Randolph is currently Wolves 7th big and isn't even on the 13 men active roster when everybody is available. I don't see how Wolves could get a first round pick for him.

If Spurs are interested in Randolph, they can just decide to wait this summer. Unless Randolph's situation really changes, Wolves won't make a $4M QO this summer and he will be an UFA.

[mercos]

If the Spurs could get a big by giving up JA, Blair, or Richardson I would pull the trigger. I would not surrender Leonard, Green, or Neal. Bonner is playing fine for a back up big right now. If Pop comes to his senses and starts Splitter come playoff time we will be fine, because everyone knows the starters get extended burn in the playoffs. Pop could juggle the minutes to minimize the time Blair and Bonner are on the floor together. The keys to the Spurs success right now are Pop putting the right lineups on the court and health. I would rather take a crack at the title with the lineup we have than jeopardize the franchise's future by giving away our important young players.

[bus driver]

I like the first trade for Mayo if los Spurs didn't have to give up a 1st round pick. I don't want any trades that involve Leonard and Green.


agree


I don't really mind the trade involving Mayo, if we could throw in RJ instead of Bonner...

i think ur crazy, i would much rather have RJ than bonner......

:pctoss oh fuck i dont know maybe ur right :wakeup

[sehui]

I like that randolph deal. Also, on ESPN it says 5 trades to help the Spurs...is this the same article? and if so, I only see 3 trades on this.

[DAF86]

Anderson+Blair for Randolph seem like a fine and fair trade. I can see both teams doing it.

I like it too, Anderson doesn't play and Randolph for Blair should be at least a lateral move for the Spurs.

Although I don't know if the Wolves would be interested, Blair wouldn't see any time and even though they lack wings Anderson isn't a sure thing. Besides Randolph is an expiring, Blair and Anderson aren't.

[Mr Fundamental]

We dont need Mayo as we have Neal.

We need Taj from Bulls.

[Pocket Hippo]

A huge problem with these trades, and any other trade, is the complete lack of practices these players would get with the shortened season.
We would be picking up pieces that would be too unfamiliar with the system to get any good minutes and when they did get minutes they would blow rotations, be out of position on offense and get benched: The Classic Pop Treatment.
I don't think we will be seeing the end of Blair, Bonner or Jefferson any time soon. The Spurs place a high value on corporate knowledge, I cannot see the FO making any moves unless a top tier big man comes knocking on our door, which is not likely.

[tuncaboylu]

Anderson+Blair for Randolph seem like a fine and fair trade. I can see both teams doing it.

Sending Blair for 7th front-court player of a lottery team?

I honestly don't understand how and why Blair is so underrated in that forum.