Ron Paul Secretly Won the Caucuses

[SA210]

Ron Paul Secretly Won the Caucuses

By David Weigel (http://www.slate.com/authors.david_weigel.html)
| Posted Wednesday, Feb. 8, 2012, at 5:53 PM ET



They all laughed at Ron Paul. They all laughed when he took a stage in Minnesota, having come in a solid second place, and reminded the faithful of a "little thing called delegates!"

They were serious about it. Paul's people believe that they understand the delegate process, and that the media does not. There is truth here: The delegate process is confusing, and I assume that Paul supporters have used their four years of organizing and studying in a fruitful manner. In an e-mail to supporters, they try to get granular about what's occurring.



We are confident in gaining a much larger share of delegates than even our impressive showing yesterday indicates. As an example of our campaign’s delegate strength, take a look at what has occurred in Colorado:
- In one precinct in Larimer County, the straw poll vote was 23 for Santorum, 13 for Paul, 5 for Romney, 2 for Gingrich. There were 13 delegate slots, and Ron Paul got ALL 13.

- In a precinct in Delta County the vote was 22 for Santorum, 12 for Romney, 8 for Paul, 7 for Gingrich. There were 5 delegate slots, and ALL 5 went to Ron Paul.

- In a Pueblo County precinct, the vote was 16 for Santorum, 11 for Romney, 3 for Gingrich and 2 for Paul. There were 2 delegate slots filled, and both were filled by Ron Paul supporters.

- We are also seeing the same trends in Minnesota, Nevada, and Iowa, and in Missouri as well. For this to stick, Paul's activists have to show up at the next votes -- small affairs, not much media, happening in March -- and control the delegate process. Then they have to show up at conventions and repeat it. This is actually doable.


http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/02/08/ron_paul_secretly_won_the_caucuses.html

[Wild Cobra]

Wow...

We might have a president Paul!

[SA210]

Deception, Despair and Delegates. The real story of primary season to date.

February 9, 2012


There is little being said about the true status of the candidacies of the four remaining Republicans running for president. There are reasons for this. Much of what the reporters know is meaningless. Much of what they want you to know is at best irrelevant, at worst falsehood. I’ll try to keep my personal assumptions out of this and simply offer three possibilities from which you may choose.


1) Gosh darn it, this election stuff is just too dang difficult for reporters and simple folk like us to get right, so mistakes are bound to happen.

2) The abhorrent behemoth that is the melding of big government and big media has chosen to intentionally mislead us.


3) The average investigative reporter in 2012 generally neither investigates nor reports.


Just as a point of interest, of the 271 delegates comprised of the states who have voted thus far;113 delegates are BOUND at this point, 158 are open to vote for the candidate of their choice. It is entirely possible at this moment that the actual delegate leader is RON PAUL. I will try to give you as comprehensive a breakdown as can be gathered at this point.

IOWA 28 Delegates


Iowa has 28 delegates to send to the Nation Convention. All the hooplah aside, the popular vote held January 3rd was meaningless. NO Iowa delegates have thus far been allocated. The process of determining delegates began that night, but won’t end for some time. Once the final 28 delegates have made it through the paring down process, they will be open to vote for whomever they choose in the initial convention vote and any successive votes if the convention is brokered.(See link for more information on “brokered convention); http://politicaldictionary.com/words/brokered-convention/

NEW HAMPSHIRE 12 Delegates


New Hampshire has 12 delegates which are allocated proportionally according to popular vote. Based on results from the January 10th vote Mitt Romney was awarded 7 delegates, Ron Paul 3 and John Huntsman 2 (2). These are bound delegates, meaning they are required to vote for the person to whom they were allocated. (John Huntsman’s 2 delegates are released from allocation. More on this later.)

SOUTH CAROLINA 25 Delegates


South Carolina has 25 Delegates in 2012.
( Would normally have been 50 prior to RNC imposed penalty for not following new allocation and date guidelines as set by Rule #15b see here); http://www.gop.com/index.php/news/comments/republican_national_committee_approves_2012_presid ential_nominating_process
South Carolina’s delegates are allocated based on statewide and district results. Based on the popular vote results of January 21th, Newt Gingrich receives 23 delegates, Mitt Romney 2.

FLORIDA 50 Delegates


Florida has 50 Delegates in 2012.
(Also a victim of Rule 15b as explained in above link.)
Florida was a Statewide Winner take All primary. All 50 Delegates are bound. Based on the popular vote held on January 31st, Mitt Romney was awarded all 50 delegates.

NEVADA 28 Delegates


Nevada has 28 Delegates. Oddly, our research has led to an as of yet unresolved conflict in reporting. Both ‘The Green Papers” (see link below-a) and a contact working on the ground in Nevada for the state GOP in Clark County affirm that delegates are to be awarded on a percentage basis for the share each candidate receives of the popular vote. The Nevada State GOP website (See link below-b) contradicts this information, however, and states that the delegates are not bound and are open to vote their conscience during the initial and any subsequent votes at the National Convention. For purposes of this article, we will assume these delegates are bound and award 1 delegate per 3.57% of the popular vote, proper apportionment based on 28 total delegates. Based on popular vote from February 4th, Mitt Romney would receive 14, Newt Gingrich 6, Ron Paul 5, Rick Santorum 3.


a) http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/NV-R


b) http://www.nvgopcaucus.com/faqs

MINNESOTA 40 Delegates


Minnesota has 40 Delegates. This is a caucus convention state, like Iowa before and Colorado now, and Missouri next month (info to follow.) No delegates have been determined and none are bound to any candidate based on the popular “Presidential preference poll” held February 7th.

COLORADO 36 Delegates


Colorado has 36 Delegates. Caucus convention, same as Iowa and Minnesota. No delegates have been selected or are bound to any candidate.

MISSOURI 52 Delegates


Missouri has 52 Delegates. I’m sure you’ve heard every pundit this side of the moon use the phrase ‘meaningless beauty contest’ to describe Missouri’s “Presidential preference poll” from February 7th. While it is an accurate statement, it is still misleading. It is no different than Iowa, Minnesota or Colorado in that the polls have NO bearing on which candidates the eventual delegates will vote for at the convention. The only difference is Missouri has two completely separate dates for the processes.


OK, so now I’ve bored you with minutia. Here is the direct breakdown with highlighted bits of information to consider.


ROMNEY



New Hampshire-7. South Carolina-2. Florida-50. Nevada 14*. (Romney also has pledges from 17 Automatic Delegates- see info below.) Romney’s current TOTAL including pledges; 90


GINGRICH
South Carolina 23. Nevada-6*. (3 pledges) TOTAL including pledges; 32


RON PAUL
New Hampshire 3. Nevada- 5*. (1 pledge) TOTAL incl. pledges; 9


SANTORUM
NONE. (1 pledge) TOTAL incl pledges; 1


Ron Paul’s campaign plan all along has been to do well with open or non-binding caucus delegates. As of this writing, our understanding; He will garner more than 1/2 of Iowa’s 25 open, will win the majority of Minnesota’s 40, collect much better than popular vote suggests in Colorado and is poised for terrific numbers in Missouri. When added to word that the Ron Paul camp is doing exceptionally well in the week long Maine caucuses, there is reason for optimism!


(Automatic Delegates, sometimes referred to as “Super Delegates” are 117 total convention voters comprised of 3 delegates for each state and protectorate of the United States, with exceptions noted in the link); http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/4726/republican-superdelegate-endorsement-list


SO- RECAP:
117 “Super Delegates are open, 17 have pledged to Romney, 3 to Newt, 1 each to Ron Paul and Santorum.


271 Delegates from states that have already voted, but only 113 re awarded as follows;



ROMNEY 73, GINGRICH 29, PAUL 8, SANTORUM 3 (2 were awarded to Huntsman but now are open.)

158 have made the news, and are often attributed to candidates but are, in fact, not yet bound. Of these 158 there are many indications Ron Paul likely holds upwards of half.



This race is nowhere NEAR over. As much as the media continues to try to convince us Ron Paul is in trouble, the truth is Santorum and Gingrich are the trailers in the ‘cash register’ where it counts!
http://carldbradley.wordpress.com/2012/02/09/deception-despair-and-delegates-the-real-story-of-primary-season-to-date/

[ChumpDumper]

So actual votes mean nothing in these things?

That makes sense.

[cheguevara]

"It's all about the delegates" - Ron Paul

[Wild Cobra]

The national party leaders get to vote how they want, regardless of the popular vote. Apparently the claim is the Paul has enough of them locked up to be in first place. Some states have non biding delegates as well. Though Sanctum received 18 and 37 delegates in Colorado and Minnesota that are classed as allocated, that is only based on vote count, and both states have non binding policies. In constitutional election law, the electors vote. I believe the delegates are the electors.

You guys don't think we have direct elections do you?

Maybe this will help:

Republican Delegate Count (http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates)

[ChumpDumper]

So actual votes mean nothing in these things?

That makes sense.

[cheguevara]

So actual votes mean nothing in these things?

That makes sense.

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2010/7/1/1278012783269/Al-Gore-006.jpg

[SA210]

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2010/7/1/1278012783269/Al-Gore-006.jpg

I was going to say the same thing :lol

[Jacob1983]

Al Gore was voted more popular than Bush in 2000.

[Wild Cobra]

Al Gore was voted more popular than Bush in 2000.
still, the electoral system was designed so candidates had to campaign in more than just the most populous regions.

[mercos]

I am curious who establishment Republicans despise more at this point: Ron Paul or Barrack Obama?

[cheguevara]

I am curious who establishment Republicans despise more at this point: Ron Paul or Barrack Obama?

If by "establishment republicans" you mean powerhungry neocons, then Paul by a mile.

[Wild Cobra]

If by "establishment republicans" you mean powerhungry neocons, then Paul by a mile.
I think I agree with you.

Though I don't like his foreign policy stance, I have changed my mind from a few years ago. I will gladly vote for Paul. Other republicans I will vote as the lesser of two evils, and I will spoil my vote if Gingrich get the nomination.

[mercos]

Its amazing how much his foreign policy turns most conservatives off. The rest of his policies are so extremely conservative. It really goes to show that the Tea Party has completely fallen from power. Ron Paul is everything they would want in a candidate.

[Wild Cobra]

Its amazing how much his foreign policy turns most conservatives off.
Foreign policy is something history tells us you need to be proactive on. his message is essrntially we will wait until we are attacked. What worries me is he will take a stance like Clinton did when it comes to trashing our foreign intelligence services and emasculating our military.

The rest of his policies are so extremely conservative.
Yes, and libertarian. He is a constitutionalists dream candidate.

It really goes to show that the Tea Party has completely fallen from power.
Please elaborate. I don't see it that way.

Ron Paul is everything they would want in a candidate.

Except his foreign policy, which is a very major role of the presidency.

[mercos]

I agree foreign policy is important, but is it that much more important than domestic policy?

[TheSullyMonster]

See there is something wrong with this though.

In most states, delegates aren't awarded in a primary.

[Wild Cobra]

I agree foreign policy is important, but is it that much more important than domestic policy?
Right now. NO!

[Jacob1983]

What the fuck is wrong with Ron Paul's foreign policy? What's so bad with minding our own business and not bullying other countries to get them to do what we want? Why not just stay the fuck out of other countries shit and try to be friends with countries who want to be our friends?

Why do so many people support this mentality of "you're gonna do it our way or we will fight you until you submit your allegiance to us"?

[Wild Cobra]

What the fuck is wrong with Ron Paul's foreign policy? What's so bad with minding our own business and not bullying other countries to get them to do what we want? Why not just stay the fuck out of other countries shit and try to be friends with countries who want to be our friends?

Why do so many people support this mentality of "you're gonna do it our way or we will fight you until you submit your allegiance to us"?
That's not my position.

[Jacob1983]

Good to hear.

[Borat Sagyidev]

What the fuck is wrong with Ron Paul's foreign policy? What's so bad with minding our own business and not bullying other countries to get them to do what we want? Why not just stay the fuck out of other countries shit and try to be friends with countries who want to be our friends?

Why do so many people support this mentality of "you're gonna do it our way or we will fight you until you submit your allegiance to us"?

Not that I disagree with his policy, people have a different mindset often of subconscious nature in regards to things like that.

The country was built as a imperialist, pillaging economy. It has never been really stable and self sustaining. Take away middle east oil imports, that are usually cheap and a lot of people begin to complain about not getting what they're entitled to.

The whole proactive foreign policy gimmick is about protecting financial interests no matter how unjustified and unethical.

[SA210]

2OkN2npJR-4

[SA210]

f2Bphszhcaw&feature=youtu.be

VpYDHvZasL8

[boutons_deux]

"the electoral system was designed so candidates had to campaign in more than just the most populous regions."

and resulted in heavily campaigning intensively only in battleground/swing states.

[Winehole23]

A number of communities were not included in that poll because they had not held their caucuses in time. Washington County Republicans postponed their caucuses, originally scheduled for Saturday, Feb. 11, because of a pending snowstorm and will now meet this Saturday. Other communities across the states also have caucuses scheduled for this weekend and later this month.


All along, state GOP officials said communities knew that their votes would not be included in the final results if they did not hold their caucus by Feb. 11.


However, a review of the town-by-town results released Saturday (http://www.mainegop.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/me_gop_caucus_results.pdf)by the Maine GOP suggests that some communities that had caucused prior to Feb. 11 were not counted. Nearly all Waldo County towns held caucuses on Feb. 4 but those towns were blank in the results released by the state party. Additionally, Waterville held its caucuses ahead of time but were not included in the results.


Waldo County GOP Chairman Raymond St. Onge said the results were sent to the state party on Tuesday, Feb. 7. He said those results probably would not have changed the outcome but was disheartened the votes were not included.
http://bangordailynews.com/2012/02/14/politics/pressure-mounting-for-gop-caucus-reconsideration/

[Winehole23]

“I spoke with Chairman Webster [Saturday night] to express my strong view that our votes must count and to make the point that they certainly will count in the court of public opinion and in the media,” Senate President Kevin Raye of Perry said Sunday in a post (https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B2GGUTXhI8gQYjA4NTUxZDItMTVhNi00NTZjLWE0Y TktMWZmYTkxOTFiYWE2) on the Facebook page of Dean McGuire, president of Machias Bay Area Chamber of Commerce. “The fact that our local Republican leaders placed the safety and well-being of their friends and neighbors ahead of politics should in no way lessen the importance of our votes in the nonbinding straw poll.same

[SA210]

RP would have won, they fear him. They didn't want the news to be that RP won a state.

[Winehole23]

RP would have wondo you have something -- anything -- to back this up, or is this just a hunch?

[SA210]

do you have something -- anything -- to back this up, or is this just a hunch?

RP has been doubling his vote count and support compared to 4 years ago. I believe he would have won, and if not, the media and others sure thought it was possible, by doing what they did. They just didn't want to risk the possibility.


“In Washington County – where Ron Paul was incredibly strong – the caucus was delayed until next week just so the votes wouldn’t be reported by the national media today,” said John Tate, Paul’s campaign manager, in a statement late Saturday night. Tate dismissed the rationale that the caucus had to be canceled due to snow, saying the weather wasn’t that bad.
“The votes of Washington County would have been enough to put us over the top,” he said....


http://www.pressherald.com/news/Paul-supporters-cry-foul-over-caucus-tally.html

[Winehole23]

Romney won by roughly 200 votes statewide.

In 2008, 113 Republicans caucused in Washington County, MA. 8 of them supported Ron Paul. It's very doubtful Washington County would've put RP over the top.

[SA210]

They sure were scared about it :lol

[Winehole23]

it was a non-binding caucus. not much to be scared of, tbh.

[SA210]

it was a non-binding caucus. not much to be scared of, tbh.

:lol So you are for not letting people vote?

And sure there's much to be scared of, he would have gotten publicity on television for winning which would change the whole race. That matters, which is why they did this.

[SA210]

pqsyzTrWS0g

[Winehole23]

:lol So you are for not letting people vote? I'm all for letting people vote and counting the votes too. What gave you the impression I wasn't?

And sure there's much to be scared of, he would have gotten publicity on television for winning which would change the whole race. That matters, which is why they did this.If ifs and but were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas.

lol "they"

[SA210]

Yea, They

QApII_DbDik&feature=youtu.be

[Winehole23]

you're fussing over window dressing. the real action is at the precincts when they nominate delegates. that hasn't happened yet. I presume you are familiar with the meaning of the word non-binding.

[cheguevara]

cn8UN9taGwo

[Winehole23]

sloppy seconds, El Che

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=5648163&postcount=38

[Winehole23]

The Maine (http://www.politico.com/tag/maine) Republican Party, under fire from Ron Paul (http://www.politico.com/2012-election/ron-paul/index.html)supporters for its mishandling of the state’s recent caucuses, is now re-canvassing counties and municipalities to recount vote totals.


POLITICO obtained an email from the State Republican Party asking local chairmen to send them the vote totals from their local straw polls.
[/URL]
“County Chairman & Town Chairman,” an email written by a state Republican Party staffer reads. “We are reconfirming the totals from the Presidential Preference Straw poll. Can you please EMAIL ME the totals from your towns. For County Chairman if you are emailing the total for your entire county can you please list the towns that are included.”


The letter was forwarded by a longtime Republican activist in Maine.
Read more: [URL]http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/72989.html#ixzz1mezAHuJ0 (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/72989.html#continue)

[Winehole23]

The Maine (http://www.politico.com/tag/maine) Republican Party, under fire from Ron Paul (http://www.politico.com/2012-election/ron-paul/index.html)supporters for its mishandling of the state’s recent caucuses, is now re-canvassing counties and municipalities to recount vote totals.


POLITICO obtained an email from the State Republican Party asking local chairmen to send them the vote totals from their local straw polls.
[/URL]
“County Chairman & Town Chairman,” an email written by a state Republican Party staffer reads. “We are reconfirming the totals from the Presidential Preference Straw poll. Can you please EMAIL ME the totals from your towns. For County Chairman if you are emailing the total for your entire county can you please list the towns that are included.”


The letter was forwarded by a longtime Republican activist in Maine.
Read more: [URL]http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/72989.html#ixzz1mezAHuJ0 (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/72989.html#continue)

[SA210]

Romney won by roughly 200 votes statewide.

In 2008, 113 Republicans caucused in Washington County, MA. 8 of them supported Ron Paul. It's very doubtful Washington County would've put RP over the top.

Now imagine if they let the other counties be counted as well.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57381016/ron-paul-wins-maine-county-caucus/


(AP) Ron Paul has gained 83 votes on Mitt Romney following a Republican presidential caucus in eastern Maine, where voting last week had been postponed due to bad weather. Romney still holds a 156-vote lead over Paul in statewide totals.


Paul received 163 votes in Saturday's Washington County caucus, where Republicans from more than two dozen towns gathered to cast their votes. Romney received 80 votes. Rick Santorum got 57 votes and Newt Gingrich received four votes.


The Maine Republican Party last week declared Romney the winner of the state's GOP caucuses, but Washington County Republicans were angered their votes weren't counted after their caucus was postponed last Saturday because of a snowstorm.


County Chairman Chris Gardner says the state party should include the caucus tally in the final results.


The Republican State Committee will consider the request next month.

[Winehole23]

it's the Iowa caucuses all over again. but even if the putative Maine winner, Romney, turns out to be the loser again, all that was lost (again) was a non-binding caucus, and he received a bump from initially being reported the winner.

it remains to be seen if RP outperforms his own returns at the polls when delegates are nominated, as widely predicted in these pages.

it's politics. unexpected things sometimes happen. Romney is looking more and more like a gigantic turd every minute, and Santorum is rumored to be unelectable...

[SA210]

It is impressive for a candidate who gets no coverage. And when he does they trash him. Versus all the other candidates that are heavily talked about and promoted by the msm. It would be interesting to have seen how it would have been if it were fair. Very interesting, but that's not the world we live in.

[Winehole23]

Maine's republican party announced Friday that it will recount votes cast in the state's non-binding GOP (http://www.chicagotribune.com/topic/politics/parties-movements/republican-party-ORGOV0000004.topic) caucus, which initially showed a 194-vote victory for Mitt Romney (http://www.chicagotribune.com/topic/politics/government/mitt-romney-PEPLT007376.topic).

The state's GOP chairman Charles Webster released a statement Friday announcing the party is working "diligently to contact town chairmen throughout Maine" to independently verify the results from each of the counties' caucuses.

Webster told Politico that the state party made clerical errors during vote tabulation Saturday, and that some E-mailed results filtered into a spam folder. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-201202211045usnewsusnwr201202170217recountfeb21,0, 4219570.story