Ten Reasons Why Ginobili and Leonard Should Start

[timvp]

With Manu Ginobili set to the return the lineup on Saturday against the Nets, it will be interesting to see how Pop decides to integrate him back into the rotation. Thankfully with Ginobili, he has proven he can thrive in just about any role imaginable. When he's on the court, no matter the 'how', 'when' or 'why', the Argentine produces.

While there are a number of rotations that make some sense, including Ginobili coming off the bench, what I think is best is to start Ginobili at shooting guard and Kawhi Leonard at small forward. In this scenario, Richard Jefferson would be sent to the bench.

(Note: Though I think Tiago Splitter should also start, this scenario will keep DeJuan Blair in the starting lineup since Pop has shown no indication that he's even considering that switch.)

Here are ten reasons I think the starting lineup should include Ginobili and Leonard at the wing positions:

1. The Current Starting Lineup is Broken
In practically every game as of late, there's been a similar pattern: the offense stalls with the starting lineup on the court, the Spurs fall behind, the bench comes into the game, the Spurs make a run. It's been like clockwork.

On the season, the lineup that started most of the games with Ginobili out (Parker, Leonard, Jefferson, Blair, Duncan) has played 184 minutes but has only outscored the opponents by a grand total of five points. While that lineup is good defensively, it's really weak offensively. On the season, the Spurs are averaging 106.02 points per 100 possessions. That lineup averages 97.73 points per 100 possessions.

Inserting Ginobili into the starting lineup will solve any offensive issues. This season, the Spurs are averaging 115.25 points per 100 possessions that Ginobili plays. Even if you want to discount his stats from this year due to the small sample size, Ginobili has a long history of putting up similar numbers (112.09 in 2009, 113.53 in 2010 and 114.37 last season).

2. The Bench is Rolling
While the starting lineup is dysfunctional right now, the bench has been on fire. With Tiago Splitter dominating the paint and a gaggle of outside shooters surrounding him, it's not uncommon for the Spurs to blitz their opponents with lineups mostly comprised of reserves.

On the season, the bench is averaging 36.5 points per game, which is the fifth highest mark in the NBA. The bench is also fourth in assists per game (7.9), sixth in field goal percentage (45.3%) and first in three-pointers made (108). The five-man unit with the highest plus/minus on the season features five bench players: Gary Neal, James Anderson, Danny Green, Matt Bonner and Splitter.

Jefferson's skillset will mesh perfectly with the reserves. His shooting can spread the floor for Splitter. And since the bench plays the game at a faster pace, Jefferson will get more chances to get out and run.

3. Leonard's Defense is Most Useful at the Beginning of Games
Leonard is already the team's best one-on-one perimeter defender. To set the tone defensively, he needs to start so he can keep the other team's top perimeter player from catching fire. We saw an example of this in the most recent game against the Grizzlies. Leonard began the game harassing Rudy Gay and Gay was never able to find his rhythm, which allowed the Spurs to later use lesser defenders against him when they needed an offensive punch.

If brought off the bench, Leonard's defense will be much less valuable. Most reserves in the league don't require a defender of Leonard's caliber. And even if he's used as a specialist to cool off hot perimeter scorers, that'd be asking a whole lot of Leonard; once stars are on fire, it's usually too late.

4. Jefferson is no Longer a Capable Defender
It's no secret that Jefferson has lost a step this season. On offense, it's evident by how he never drives to the rim any longer. Those dunks of yesteryear? All but extinct.

While it's more difficult to see his defensive decline, that too is undeniable. Since Leonard was moved into the starting lineup, Jefferson has mostly been asked to guard the other team's weakest perimeter player. But even though little is being asked of him, players are still blowing by RJ at an alarming rate.

If Pop starts Ginobili and Jefferson, that alignment would require Jefferson to attempt to defend opposing small forwards -- even if that player is a superstar. If that happens, there is absolutely no way this team will be elite on the defensive end.

5. Allowing Ginobili to Roam
While Ginobili isn't a very good one-on-one defender, he's fantastic when he's allowed to roam. But for him to be able to roam without hurting the team's defense, Ginobili has to be matched up against the opponent's worst perimeter scorer. If Leonard starts, that would be the case; it'd be a return of the Bruce Bowen days in that regard.

If Jefferson starts, Ginobili would face much more difficult matchups and his ability to roam will be limited. Additionally, Ginobili would be forced to spend a lot more energy on the defensive end, which would either limit how hard he can go on the offensive end or limit the maximum amount of minutes he can play at a high level.

6. Hiding Leonard's Offensive Shortcomings
For as well as Leonard plays on the defensive end, he's unquestionably the team's biggest offensive liability. Since his outside shot is iffy, he doesn't spread the floor much. And Leonard thus far hasn't developed the ability to create for himself going to the rim in halfcourt sets, which forces him to basically live off of backdoor cuts and offensive rebounds.

Those limitations obviously don't make Leonard the optimal player to start next to the Big 3, but the starting lineup would have the offensive talent to offset his weaknesses. Even with Leonard, I expect the starting lineup to be an elite scoring unit. And who knows, playing next to Ginobili could greatly improve Leonard's ability to score. We've seen that happen countless times in the past.

7. Increase Role Player Competition
Jefferson, at this point in his career, is a declining role player. Even if you still think he's playing at an acceptable level today, that may change next week or next month. By putting him on the bench, Pop will avoid giving him charity minutes each game that he may no longer warrant.

However, by bringing Jefferson off the bench, you make him compete for his spot in the rotation. It also gives other players, namely Green, Neal and Anderson, room to carve out consistent playing time. For example, if Ginobili and Leonard are starting and averaging 56 minutes combined, that still leaves 40 minutes on the table for others to fight over.

8. Rebounding Needed in the Starting Lineup
One reason why the starting lineup has struggled is an inability to control the defensive glass. Replacing Leonard in the starting lineup would be a step in the wrong direction and would force Duncan to shoulder even more of the rebounding load.

But by replacing Jefferson with Ginobili, defensive rebounding should no longer be an issue for the starting five. Ginobili is much better than Jefferson at grabbing long, contested boards.

9. Speeding Up Leonard's Growth
If the Spurs are going to be a championship contender this season, they need Leonard to be ready to defend the best of the best come the postseason. While the rookie might not be a vital cog when it comes to racking up regular season wins, he'll play a very important role in the playoffs.

It's asking a lot for a 20-year-old rookie to produce in the playoffs. That said, throwing Leonard into the fire and giving him consistent minutes and a consistent role each night will maximize the chances of it happening.

If Leonard becomes a bench player, it will be all but assured that he'll be a spectator in May.

10. Adjustable When Needed
Recently, Pop has taken Leonard out of the starting lineup against teams that don't feature a star perimeter scorer. While more than 80% of NBA teams feature such a player, starting Leonard gives Pop flexibility to adjust to certain teams.

Trying to do the other way wouldn't really work. If Pop starts Ginobili and Jefferson, he'd be committed to that lineup night in and night out.

[Dex]

Nice write-up. All very good reasons. Now the real question is....what do you think are the odds that Pop actually follows suit and sends RJ to the bench?

It seems like the sensible thing to do, but then again, so does giving Splitter more minutes.

[SpursRock20]

Print this out. Fold it up. Put it in a envelope. Send it to Pop.

[mystargtr34]

3. Leonard's Defense is Most Useful at the Beginning of Games
Leonard is already the team's best one-on-one perimeter defender. To set the tone defensively, he needs to start so he can keep the other team's top perimeter player from catching fire. We saw an example of this in the most recent game against the Grizzlies. Leonard began the game harassing Rudy Gay and Gay was never able to find his rhythm, which allowed the Spurs to later use lesser defenders against him when they needed an offensive punch.

If brought off the bench, Leonard's defense will be much less valuable. Most reserves in the league don't require a defender of Leonard's caliber. And even if he's used as a specialist to cool off hot perimeter scorers, that'd be asking a whole lot of Leonard; once stars are on fire, it's usually too late.


Great write up. This is an under rated point imo.. bringing Leonard off the bench is wasting the talents he brings.. since he's the only guy on the roster with that particular skill set.. its needs to be optimised by starting him against the best perimeter players in the league.

And as you mentioned, most 'scorers' that come off the bench are under sized chuckers. Guys that wont hurt you anywhere near as much as the team's best perimeter scorer.

[ElNono]

Wishful thinking, LJ :lol

[timvp]

Now the real question is....what do you think are the odds that Pop actually follows suit and sends RJ to the bench?

It seems like the sensible thing to do, but then again, so does giving Splitter more minutes.

I have no idea what Pop is going to do. He's probably the only coach in the league who wouldn't be starting Splitter right now so there's no telling how he'll handle this situation.

Tbh, I'll be more upset if Pop doesn't start Ginobili and Leonard together than I am about the Splitter fiasco. With Splitter, at least there are some halfway valid concerns regarding why he comes off the bench. But starting Ginobili/Jefferson or Leonard /Jefferson or Green/Jefferson or even Ginobili/Green doesn't make nearly as much sense as starting Ginobili/Leonard.

[GSH]

I'm a huge believer in being able to change the pace of a game, which is why Manu was always so valuable off the bench. But I think this second unit can offer that on their own. I would love to see Pop put both Manu and Kawhi in to start the game. That leaves RJ to play against the opponents' subs, where he would be fine - he might even get a chance to play more of his old style game. The only problem I see is that Manu is by far our best backup PG right now. There's something to be said to having either him or Tony on the floor at all times, at least until Ford comes back.

What I'd really love to see is a starting five of Tim, Tiago, Leonard, Manu, and Tony. Even if the Tim/Tiago combo ended after 6-7 minutes, to be able to open the game with a dominating lineup, and setting the tone for the game... that could save a lot of grief in the latter stages. I really think that starting five could make things tough on just about any other team in the league.

[Seventyniner]

9. Speeding Up Leonard's Growth
If the Spurs are going to be a championship contender this season, they need Leonard to be ready to defend the best of the best come the postseason. While the rookie might not be a vital cog when it comes to racking up regular season wins, he'll play a very important role in the playoffs.

It's asking a lot for a 20-year-old rookie to produce in the playoffs. That said, throwing Leonard into the fire and giving him consistent minutes and a consistent role each night will maximize the chances of it happening.

If Leonard becomes a bench player, it will be all but assured that he'll be a spectator in May.

If Pop actually gave a crap about something like this, wouldn't he have played Splitter more last season and this one?

[Robz4000]

Agree 100%. Bringing Jefferson off the bench may very well resurrect his game. Also would make the starting lineup fairly elite while taking nothing away from the bench we've come to love.

[jjktkk]

Sadly, RJ and Blair probably wouldn't produce coming off the bench.

[phxspurfan]

I like the arguments but there's no way Pop is going to bench RJ. Holt would have a fit with Pop benching a $9,300,000.00 player.

[ElNono]

One Reason Why Ginobili and Jefferson Will Start

:pop:

[024]

very good points but you will have to nail this to pop's front door.

[maverick1948]

About part 6, Hiding Leonards offensive shortcomings. You do realize even with RJ in the lineup, Kawhi is the 5 option. That means he gets very few plays called for him. As a result he has fewer attempts from the floor than anyother starter. Bringing in Ginobili will only make it harder for him to get shots during the game.

I think we should continue rotating the team as Pop is doing. We have a constant run of fresh players all playing at a higher level than the opponents can play. I think Blair, Duncan, Leonard, Green and Parker makes a good starting lineup. With Splitter, Bonner, Jefferson, Ginobili and Neal as the second unit. Our biggest problem is finding how to keep Blair motivated. By moving Green into the starting lineup, he will help TP handle the ball and has a great passing ability. Manu can handle the 2nd unit and if you look it makes Splitter the ONLY post player on the court. Running PnR with Manu will inflate his stats big time. If RJ Bonner and Neal knock down a couple of quick 3's this unit could compete with a lot of starting lineups on bad team.

[Leetonidas]

I think this is a great idea, the only problem is who do we pair with Duncan? Splitter is our main weapon off the bench, and Blair/Bonner both suck ass but Bonner as of late has been playing much better and is hitting his threes while Blair does, well, nothing. I suppose Manu being in the starting lineup may make him more useful out there and the Splitter/Bonner combo seems surprisingly effective. Damn I wish McDyess hadn't retired, he would still be better next to Timmy than Blair.

[therealtruth]

If Leonard's shot was consistent I would say there's no doubt he starts. I like what Pop was doing before and subbing Jefferson out early and bringing KL in. That allowed Jefferson to come back in and play with the second unit. I remember him playing pretty well in that role with the second unit.

Right now I say Pop should at least start Splitter. Adding a defensive presence in the paint can somewhat help to make up for lack of perimeter defense. The perimeter defenders can dig in and force the offense towards TD and TS. Also the starters gain chemistry playing with each other and the bench can learn to try and maintain leads. Relying on being able to fight back into a game isn't a great strategy. People forget the reason Ginobili came of the bench in the past wasn't for a change of pace. It was because Finley was useless of the bench.

[The Truth #6]

Benching RJ...that makes too much sense.

[timtonymanu]

Great thread, timvp.

I am hoping for this too. Jefferson is no longer a serviceable starter, at least for this team. He brings nothing other than 3 point shooting at this point of his career. Put RJ with Neal, Green, and Splitter and it makes our bench much more of a threat than it already is.

Putting Leonard into the Bowen role puts our team closer to a championship team. Enough with starting the dead-weights, Blair and RJ at the same time. Send one of them to the bench, which makes more sense with RJ.

[SA210]

Print this out. Fold it up. Put it in a envelope. Send it to Pop.

And to all media outlets, everyday

[Fireball]

TIMVP ... best reason to come to Spurstalk!

[roycrikside]

If I had to take a guess, I'd say that Pop will have Manu come off the bench at the beginning, until he gets his conditioning up and can play more than 20 mins a game.

The exciting thing about Ginobili coming back is that we won't have to worry about Neal or Joseph holding the fort when Tony's on the bench (and hopefully he can rest more now, we've been riding him hard) and also we'll have at least one wing we can rely on for points inside and outside, when Green and Leonard have both been ice cold of late and Jefferson continues to be strictly an outside shooter.

The part that really has me drooling though is the Ginobili-Splitter pick-and-roll connection. Obviously Splitter has really developed that part of his game and the guards on the team have gotten very comfortable passing it to him. If Tony can get Splitter two or three easy buckets a game, imagine what Manu and Tiago can do together.

[Darkwaters]

Tbh, I'll be more upset if Pop doesn't start Ginobili and Leonard together than I am about the Splitter fiasco. With Splitter, at least there are some halfway valid concerns regarding why he comes off the bench. But starting Ginobili/Jefferson or Leonard /Jefferson or Green/Jefferson or even Ginobili/Green doesn't make nearly as much sense as starting Ginobili/Leonard.

Darkhorse move: Spurs resign Michael Finley and start Finley/Jefferson

[jestersmash]

Great write up as usual timvp :tu


If I had to take a guess, I'd say that Pop will have Manu come off the bench at the beginning, until he gets his conditioning up and can play more than 20 mins a game.

The exciting thing about Ginobili coming back is that we won't have to worry about Neal or Joseph holding the fort when Tony's on the bench (and hopefully he can rest more now, we've been riding him hard) and also we'll have at least one wing we can rely on for points inside and outside, when Green and Leonard have both been ice cold of late and Jefferson continues to be strictly an outside shooter.

The part that really has me drooling though is the Ginobili-Splitter pick-and-roll connection. Obviously Splitter has really developed that part of his game and the guards on the team have gotten very comfortable passing it to him. If Tony can get Splitter two or three easy buckets a game, imagine what Manu and Tiago can do together.

No guesswork is required. Pop has already explicitly stated that he's going to ease Ginobili off the bench initially.

[jesterbobman]

I think that's the best 5 to start with. Kawhi is our weakest offensive player, but rebounding is a big thing, and he's phenomenal at it. With Manu coming back, you probably want to ease him into it a bit, so probably 5 minutes at the start of the half, 4 minutes and the end of 1st/start of second(acts as de facto PG) and 5 minutes near the end of the half. have him in during TP's rest when TJ is out so you have another creator on the floor, then when TJ is back there's less pressure on playing Manu with that Unit, and he can play with the starters more.

I would guess we'll see Manu/RJ though

[Bruno]

There is one big factor that is missing in the OP: TJ Ford's injury.

For the moment, Spurs biggest issue is that Parker is playing too much minutes. Since TJ's injury, Parker is playing over 36mpg. That's way too much with this compressed schedule. Parker will end up injured or dead tired if he continues to play as much. Manu's return should first be used to limit Parker's minutes and the best way to do it is to have Manu coming from the bench helping the second unit.

Once Ford is back, the situation will be a lot different and I fully wholly agree with the idea of starting Ginobili with Leonard.

[benefactor]

Agreed on all points......
























































































































Wishful thinking, LJ :lol

[Brazil]

There is one big factor that is missing in the OP: TJ Ford's injury.

For the moment, Spurs biggest issue is that Parker is playing too much minutes. Since TJ's injury, Parker is playing over 36mpg. That's way too much with this compressed schedule. Parker will end up injured or dead tired if he continues to play as much. Manu's return should first be used to limit Parker's minutes and the best way to do it is to have Manu coming from the bench helping the second unit.

Once Ford is back, the situation will be a lot different and I fully wholly agree with the idea of starting Ginobili with Leonard.

:tu

[SpurNation]

Great write up. Can't argue with stats or facts.

That said...I'd like to see them try a starting unit of Parker, Duncan, Blair, Neal and Leonard. Primary second tier of Ginobili, Jefferson, Splitter, Bonner and Green. When TJ returns...reduce Green's minutes and/or adjust Green and Jefferson depending on matchups.

And I'm not saying this to be a permanent rotation or in disagreement with Timvp but using the same reasons in the op with different players.

With regards to (1), Neal starting elevates the teams' lack of scoring punch and, as pointed out in (5), Neal is a better defender when allowed to roam more so than one on one. Case regarding number (8) is also addressed since Neal is a better than average rebounder in the guard position. Plus...Neal is becoming better as a facilitator and gives the Spurs an added attack the basket element. Paired with Parker and Kawhi on the perimeter might not be AS potent as Ginobili but would still be better than being presented at the time.

Common factor I believe is Jefferson more so than anybody else in this. Jefferson has always performed better being paired with Ginobili. Jefferson off the bench with Ginobili allows Spurs second unit to have (for what it's worth) two starters in that unit. Ginobili, Green, Jefferson, Splitter and Bonner present a formidable rotation that should hold true with the comment... "Jefferson's skillset will mesh perfectly with the reserves. His shooting can spread the floor for Splitter. And since the bench plays the game at a faster pace, Jefferson will get more chances to get out and run." Again...R.J. paired with Ginobili has always produced an effective combination. With Parker and Duncan (for a lack of a better phrase) out of the way...Manu and Jefferson may produce optimum results.

Anyway...not meant to be argumentative...just a different perspective.

[silverblackfan]

It is a dream lineup for a Spurs fan, but unlikely at this point. Due to Tony's need for rest, Manu's need for conditioning, I can see Manu coming off the bench for a bit. As others have noted, until TJ is back or Neal/Green become reliable ball distributers, the second unit needs Manu.
As for benching RJ for KL, that would be awesome to see. I don't think Pop wants to put that much pressure on KL or defend the $9Million bench guy.

[TMTTRIO]

I'm not comfortable with Manu coming back and having to fill in as backup pg. I know we're excited about Manu coming back but I still wonder how effective he's going to be coming back from surgery on his dominate hand so he's still a big question to me. Until TJ comes back Tony's just going to have to hang in there.

[bklynspursfan]

I think it will come down to matchups. Like vs Philly, Leonard came off the bench for the Lou Williams assignment I believe. I'd love to have Leonard start every game, but I can't see Pop doing it. As much as it pains me. If Splitter doesn't start, I can't see Leonard starting.

[ManuTastic]

There is one big factor that is missing in the OP: TJ Ford's injury.

For the moment, Spurs biggest issue is that Parker is playing too much minutes. Since TJ's injury, Parker is playing over 36mpg. That's way too much with this compressed schedule. Parker will end up injured or dead tired if he continues to play as much. Manu's return should first be used to limit Parker's minutes and the best way to do it is to have Manu coming from the bench helping the second unit.

Once Ford is back, the situation will be a lot different and I fully wholly agree with the idea of starting Ginobili with Leonard.

Hear, Hear. While I too love LJ's new lineup idea (Pop won't do it, sigh), I've said before that with TJ out Manu will be needed to backup Tony at playmaker. Otherwise, I agree JEfferson needs to sit, and Leonard needs to start due to his defense and awesome rebounding.

But... we talkin' 'bout Pop. He won't play Tiago more, and he plays RJ and Blair too much... WTF?

[timvp]

I like the arguments but there's no way Pop is going to bench RJ. Holt would have a fit with Pop benching a $9,300,000.00 player.

Remember though Pop benched RJ back in 2010 ... and that year he was making $14,200,000. The only reason RJ went back into the starting lineup was because Parker broke his hand.

There's history of Pop benching a much better version of the current RJ, however I'm not exactly going to hold my breath this year given Pop's questionable rotations so far this season.

[timvp]

There is one big factor that is missing in the OP: TJ Ford's injury.

For the moment, Spurs biggest issue is that Parker is playing too much minutes. Since TJ's injury, Parker is playing over 36mpg. That's way too much with this compressed schedule. Parker will end up injured or dead tired if he continues to play as much. Manu's return should first be used to limit Parker's minutes and the best way to do it is to have Manu coming from the bench helping the second unit.

Once Ford is back, the situation will be a lot different and I fully wholly agree with the idea of starting Ginobili with Leonard.

While I'm fine with Manu coming off the bench until he gets back into shape (Pop has already said that will happen, in fact), I respectfully disagree with the notion that the use of Manu should be tied with TJ Ford's status.

1. In a recent telecast, Elliott said that Ford is still limping. If that's the case, it could be a while before Ford is ready to return. This season is going by too quickly to wait around while not using the best possible rotation.

2. Ford is so injury prone that even when he does return, it's pretty likely that something else on his body will pop or break or get strained. If you pigeonhole Manu into a specific role based on the health of Ford, that's a slippery slope.

3. Manu has quarterbacked the second unit most of his career -- no matter if he's a starter or coming off the bench.

Once Manu is back in shape, in close games my preference is to have Parker play 34 minutes and Manu 29 minutes. That way, once you account for blowouts, Parker will average around 32 minutes per game and Manu will average around 27 minutes. (Right now, Parker is averaging around 38-39 minutes in close games, which is obviously too much.)

You can start both players and still hit their optimal close-game minute levels:

FIRST QUARTER
Ginobili exits at 7:00
Parker exits at 2:00
Ginobili enters at 2:00

SECOND QUARTER
Ginobili exits at 6:00
Parker enters at 6:00

THIRD QUARTER
Ginobili exits at 7:00
Parker exits at 4:00
Ginobili enters at 4:00

FOURTH QUARTER
Ginobili exits at 10:00
Parker enters at 10:00
Ginobili enters at 5:00

[Bruno]

You can start both players and still hit their optimal close-game minute levels:

FIRST QUARTER
Ginobili exits at 7:00
Parker exits at 2:00
Ginobili enters at 2:00

SECOND QUARTER
Ginobili exits at 6:00
Parker enters at 6:00

THIRD QUARTER
Ginobili exits at 7:00
Parker exits at 4:00
Ginobili enters at 4:00

FOURTH QUARTER
Ginobili exits at 10:00
Parker enters at 10:00
Ginobili enters at 5:00

Starting Manu with that minutes distribution is almost the same than bringing him of the bench. He will basically play some minutes at the start of the first and third quarters instead of playing these minutes in the middle of the first and third quarters if he was a bench player. Match-up wise, it's a wash since the other team usually doesn't sub its best players before late in the first and third quarters.


While I'm fine with Manu coming off the bench until he gets back into shape (Pop has already said that will happen, in fact), I respectfully disagree with the notion that the use of Manu should be tied with TJ Ford's status.

I find that Ford is an interesting part of the equation.

If Ford comes back in 8 or 10 games, that is to say in 3 or 4 weeks, do you keep a rotation with Manu starting or coming from the bench that keep at least one of Parker and Manu on the court during the whole game?

Ford isn't the best fit possible with Manu and I think a lineup like Ford/Green/RJ/Bonner/Splitter could do well offensively.

[SenorSpur]

Excellent writeup LJ. Loved reading every word. All the reasons listed are both viable and plausible.

Allow me to add another reason why Ginobili and Leonard should start, or rather, a more compelling reason as to why RJ should be benched - his piss-poor, cowardly performances in this past year's playoff series versus the Grizzlies. In fact, RJ played so poorly and so uninspired in that series-clinching Game 6, that Pop could no longer stomach it. We all remember that it became so bad that Pop resorted to inserting 6'2" George Hill as a replacement SF for the failing RJ, in an effort to get more production out of that position. Of course, that didn't help either. Yet, it really spoke to Pop's desparation. It also spoke to why the Spurs felt compelled on nabbing a player of Leonard's ilk in this past summer's NBA draft.

Of course, RJ's suckiness wasn't the sole reason the Spurs lost that series, but his ostrich-like play surely didn't help. If there were ever a single flashpoint revelation to all, as to why RJ should be benched, that game, and that series, should be it. If Pop isn't still angered by this, he should be.

Thus far this season, we've seen very little evidence that RJ has improved, changed or evolved since last spring. While he's had a few bright moments, he still cannot be trusted to be an important contributor come playoff time. He simply has no history of such.

Fast forwarding to the present, keeping Leonard in the lineup with Manu simply makes the most sense. While Leonard isn't the outside shooter RJ is, the fact that he's disruptive on defense, is a phenomenal rebounder and can score around the basket, should all be more than enough reasons for Pop to elect to keep him in starting lineup. Of course, ramping up Splitter's playing also makes the most sense too, but...I digress.

[SpurNation]

Starting Manu with that minutes distribution is almost the same than bringing him of the bench. He will basically play some minutes at the start of the first and third quarters instead of playing these minutes in the middle of the first and third quarters if he was a bench player. Match-up wise, it's a wash since the other team usually doesn't sub its best players before late in the first and third quarters.

I find that Ford is an interesting part of the equation.

If Ford comes back in 8 or 10 games, that is to say in 3 or 4 weeks, do you keep a rotation with Manu starting or coming from the bench that keep at least one of Parker and Manu on the court during the whole game?

Ford isn't the best fit possible with Manu and I think a lineup like Ford/Green/RJ/Bonner/Splitter could do well offensively.

Excuse the chime in. I can see Timvp's point. In all honesty it makes perfect sense to get the best players on the court in the beginning of every game.

However I think it is also warranted in your pov to bring Manu off the bench.

I believe the minutes equation is correct on your part that it is essentially the same a if Manu were coming off the bench. Also it appears to be too frequent of an intervention of player rotation to accomplish a rhythm.

From what I've seen thus far (sans Ginobili) in the starting lineup is a building of rhythm with Parker and Duncan while the cast of extras being secondary forces in planned execution. To Timvp's point...a better supporting cast with Parker/Duncan does need to be established. However, I feel Ginobili with Jefferson as 2nd tier will afford the same effect as Timvp suggested while allowing Parker/Duncan (Neal, Kawhi and Blair rounding out the starters) to still achieve the goal of improving the starters AND allow the second unit to continue with great execution.

[CGD]

Ford isn't the best fit possible with Manu and I think a lineup like Ford/Green/RJ/Bonner/Splitter could do well offensively.

That is a very potent bench indeed, not to mention Neal needs to be worked in there somehow. I like the idea of lighting a fire under RJ's ass by putting him on the bench, and making him compete.

Upon, Manu's return and integration I wouldn't be surprised if Pop does a situation-based starting line-up starting either RJ or Lenard depending on defensive need. He's been doing it already.

[ElNono]

Maybe once Manu is fit we can bring Tony from the bench... :stirpot:

[Beanzamillion21]

Please bench RJ Pop.
It may even light a fire under his ass to get him motivated.

[The Truth #6]

Timvp, once Ford returns, and let's assume he doesn't re-injure himself, whose minutes do you think will get reduced to allow Ford to back up Parker? Green? Neal? I'd like to see RJ's minutes go down even further but that's probably asking too much.

(On a side note about rotations, since Green has been struggling somewhat as of late, I think giving JA some more minutes would be have been a great idea to see where he's at, but with Manu set to return, JA's future with the Spurs might be permanently over because I can't see him getting any more playing time now with a more crowded back court, even more so when TJ eventually returns.)

[shraediggz]

I'm more curious what the minute break down will be?

RJ's netting 25mpg in Feb, with Neal and Green leading the way in the back-court, if that trend continues, I wonder how that will play out when Manu comes back... you've got 96 minutes to split between 5 guys (assuming Anderson is cut from the rotation). That's not a lot of PT.

To close out games, I hope to see Manu with a combo of Green or Neal (whoever is hot) or Kawhi (if we need a stop).

I'd be happy with RJ starting, so long as his minutes are lower than Green and Neal's. I could live with RJ being the 4th Wing in our rotation... I'd be happier if he was the 5th.

[Old School 44]

Nice post. All reasons are excellent.

I agree most with 1 and 2. Manu will easily inject some life in the first unit and I think he'll make Leonard offensively better.

And yes, the second unit is playing great, but with Manu's return, I'm sure his and Tony's time will overlap with this unit. I think you just need to ride the hot hand from game to game. Of course, the odd men out are Joseph, Anderson, and maybe Green, especially if he continues to shoot as poorly as he has in recent games. I know Green provides other things beside scoring, I just hope he doesn't end up in Pop's doghouse. Also, with Manu's return, I hope these bench guys don't defer too much to him.

[jestersmash]

Nice post. All reasons are excellent.

I agree most with 1 and 2. Manu will easily inject some life in the first unit and I think he'll make Leonard offensively better.

And yes, the second unit is playing great, but with Manu's return, I'm sure his and Tony's time will overlap with this unit. I think you just need to ride the hot hand from game to game. Of course, the odd men out are Joseph, Anderson, and maybe Green, especially if he continues to shoot as poorly as he has in recent games. I know Green provides other things beside scoring, I just hope he doesn't end up in Pop's doghouse. Also, with Manu's return, I hope these bench guys don't defer too much to him.

I'm curious, how exactly will Manu make Leonard better offensively when by all accounts Leonard's jump shot (mid-range and 3 point) is virtually non-existent?

So far, Leonard's a guy who can score with offensive put-backs or cutting to the rim off the ball and scoring near the basket.

Manu can P&R with Splitter/Blair/Tim, pick and pop with Bonner, drive and kick with Neal/RJ. You have to be able to shoot or be a good roll man as a big to be amenable to help from someone like Manu.

And just to be clear, I'm not blaming Leonard. I think he brings a lot to the table (defensively), but I doubt he'll improve offensively with Manu's insertion. I think his shortcomings as an offensive liability can be mitigated with the insertion of Manu (i.e. with Manu's insertion, the entire lineup can absorb the brunt of Leonard's offensive woes), but I don't think Leonard himself will end up scoring more.

[Old School 44]

So far, Leonard's a guy who can score with offensive put-backs or cutting to the rim off the ball and scoring near the basket.

Manu makes everyone's offense better, just by standing on the floor. He garners that much attention. Combine that with a hot TP and resurgent TD, I can see an increase in Leonard's offense with just the things you mention.

[manu the best]

agree with all the reasons .. plus this line up will be really good for the playoffs .. hopefully some how pop decides to play this line up..

[Solid D]

Excellent piece, timvp. If Manu and Kawhi end up on the floor together along with Timmy, Blair and TP, Kawhi will need to become more efficient on his marksmanship from the arc. Although Leonard has a nice .449 floor percentage, his .333 from 3-pt land needs work.
With TP and Manu creating, that only leaves one other perimeter shooter.

With that said, it's the 4th quarter lineups that intrigue me the most. In tight games, I really look forward to an end-of-game lineup of Tiago, Timmy, Cow-eye, Manu and Tony.

[Obstructed_View]

6. Hiding Leonard's Offensive Shortcomings
For as well as Leonard plays on the defensive end, he's unquestionably the team's biggest offensive liability. Since his outside shot is iffy, he doesn't spread the floor much. And Leonard thus far hasn't developed the ability to create for himself going to the rim in halfcourt sets, which forces him to basically live off of backdoor cuts and offensive rebounds.

Those limitations obviously don't make Leonard the optimal player to start next to the Big 3, but the starting lineup would have the offensive talent to offset his weaknesses. Even with Leonard, I expect the starting lineup to be an elite scoring unit. And who knows, playing next to Ginobili could greatly improve Leonard's ability to score. We've seen that happen countless times in the past.



Having three of the best passers on the floor with him will really help him score. In addition, where Manu can roam on defense, you can let Leonard roam on offense. His long arms and nose for the ball make him the perfect garbage man for the starting unit.

[ducks]

timvp and bruno nice debat

[lurker23]

Excellent piece, timvp. If Manu and Kawhi end up on the floor together along with Timmy, Blair and TP, Kawhi will need to become more efficient on his marksmanship from the arc. Although Leonard has a nice .449 floor percentage, his .333 from 3-pt land needs work.
With TP and Manu creating, that only leaves one other perimeter shooter.

With that said, it's the 4th quarter lineups that intrigue me the most. In tight games, I really look forward to an end-of-game lineup of Tiago, Timmy, Cow-eye, Manu and Tony.

Agreed. I'll just quote myself from earlier today, when talking about Tony/Manu/Duncan/Splitter:


I agree, in the long run it's really hard to imagine that 4-man combo being anything but effective on both ends, and (barring a trade) I expect that to be the crunch-time lineup come April.

The only problem is that Manu is the only 3-point shooter among those 4, and even he has been shaky behind the arc since his career year in '07-08. Ideally you'd like Kawhi to be the 5th player in that lineup, but unless he can learn the corner three post-haste, you probably have to go with Neal or Jefferson.

[shorttotry]

I'm a huge believer in being able to change the pace of a game, which is why Manu was always so valuable off the bench. But I think this second unit can offer that on their own. I would love to see Pop put both Manu and Kawhi in to start the game. That leaves RJ to play against the opponents' subs, where he would be fine - he might even get a chance to play more of his old style game. The only problem I see is that Manu is by far our best backup PG right now. There's something to be said to having either him or Tony on the floor at all times, at least until Ford comes back.

What I'd really love to see is a starting five of Tim, Tiago, Leonard, Manu, and Tony. Even if the Tim/Tiago combo ended after 6-7 minutes, to be able to open the game with a dominating lineup, and setting the tone for the game... that could save a lot of grief in the latter stages. I really think that starting five could make things tough on just about any other team in the league.

Absolutely a +1! When Manu first went down with his injury, I would never have agreed with this, but in the past several games, the second unit has played with more intensity and at times much more effectively than our starters. We need to do exactly what TMVP suggests... Start TP, Manu, Leonard, Duncan, and (unfortunately) Blair. When TJ returns, a second unit of TJ, Neal/ Green, RJ/ Anderson, Bonner, and Tiago is likely the best second unit in the NBA!

Of course we need to play Tim and Tiago together much more in preparation for the playoffs, but this general lineup is what needs to be the basic game plan for Pop to start games. I am gaining more and more confidence in Leonard defensively day by day, and TIMVP summed it up perfectly... But while I don't totally agree that he's a better perimeter defender than Manu as of now, he's definitely at least our second best perimeter defender. And he relieves a lot of energy for our best offensive playmaker, which of course is Ginobili.

Great writeup!

[Vic Petro]

I think Pop should go

Parker
Green
Leonard
Blair
Duncan

I think Ford's playing time is in jeopardy no matter when he comes back. He was playing well and Pop loves veterans but Pop also has a history of banishing new guys for early season injuries. Manu and Neal can handle the back court when Parker isn't in the game. Jefferson, Bonner, Splitter also off the bench.

Bringing Manu off the bench also allows TP to be the focal point of the offense for longer stretches, and I think he plays better when he doesn't have to worry as much about spreading the ball around. Tony is at his best when he is in attack mode at all times

[TJastal]

I think Pop should go

Parker
Green
Leonard
Blair
Duncan

I think Ford's playing time is in jeopardy no matter when he comes back. He was playing well and Pop loves veterans but Pop also has a history of banishing new guys for early season injuries. Manu and Neal can handle the back court when Parker isn't in the game. Jefferson, Bonner, Splitter also off the bench.

Bringing Manu off the bench also allows TP to be the focal point of the offense for longer stretches, and I think he plays better when he doesn't have to worry as much about spreading the ball around. Tony is at his best when he is in attack mode at all times

+1 Great posting Vic Petro!

This makes perfect sense to me. Ironically it was Timvp's "advanced big man stats" that showed exactly why, too. Dejuan Blair is such a complete and total liability on defense that its almost imperative you have two of your best defensive wings on the court with him. The other alternative is to use
Splitter in his place but that would have required Pop make the switch either last year or at the very least the beginning of this year so him and Duncan could learn how to co-exist together on the court. Since we're already heading into the all-star break and Duncan & Splitter have barely logged more than a handful of minutes together in two years it appears the best solution now is to leave the big rotation as is and find a different way to augment Blair's gaping black holes on defense. And this is the best solution I've seen so far.

Also right now with the way Tony Parker is playing, why tinker with that? Give him the keys and let him run the first unit and then hand em off to Manu for the two 10-12 minute stretches between the 1st and 2nd periods and also 3rd and 4th. And then of course if needed to close out the game. That way, the spurs can best maximize their two best playmakers.

And I could really give a care less if Blair's production is hampered by not having Manu out on the court with him. Having to rework the entire lineup and rotation is enough horsing around for one guy. I think not only will Tiago be made that much more effective (than Blair would) but as a fan I'd personally much rather see Splitter become the prime benefactor of Manu's passing at this point since he has been the one to sacrifice the most so Blair could keep his starting job and continue being the lazy fat slob he is.

[TJastal]

Oh, and I should qualify the above opinion by keeping my fingers crossed that Tim Duncan will hopefully make it through the rest of the season and entire playoffs lugging Blair's fat lazy ass in tow... because premature fatigue or injury could easily throw a monkeywrench into that whole plan!

[SpurNation]

Also right now with the way Tony Parker is playing, why tinker with that? Give him the keys and let him run the first unit and then hand em off to Manu for the two 10-12 minute stretches between the 1st and 2nd periods and also 3rd and 4th. And then of course if needed to close out the game. That way, the spurs can best maximize their two best playmakers.

And I could really give a care less if Blair's production is hampered by not having Manu out on the court with him. Having to rework the entire lineup and rotation is enough horsing around for one guy.

Seems to be the logical formulation if the team wants to get the best out of its two best players. (As well as it's supporting members)

And I would like to add...from here on out Blair's only goal on this team should be that of his known strengths and NOT trying to involve him as anything else. Set Screens...Box Out...Board. His only points in the game should come off what he earns from dirty work and not as a called play to get him involved.

[therealtruth]

The thing is Tiago needs more minutes. He makes everyone else better. Bonner, Neal, TP, and Manu can really benefit from playing with him. He seems to have that same kind of Manu effect of making others better. I think a big part of it is the way he sets picks. First he's big enough to make the pick effective and then you have to defend him on the roll.

[timtonymanu]

Watching Dick getting owned by Tayshaun Prince makes me wish we see Manu-Leonard even more.

[DAF86]

If Leonard starts hitting that three with regularity he becomes a vital piece.

[jjktkk]

If Leonard starts hitting that three with regularity he becomes a vital piece.

Hes already a vital piece, just with his defense and rebounding alone. Whatever he contributes on offense is icing on the cake imo.

[crc21209]

I don't understand starting the combo of RJ and Green tbh.....

[SpurNation]

I don't understand starting the combo of RJ and Green tbh.....

Kanundrum. Neal being the best option at the 2 but has to play b/u point. Ginobili coming off injury. Leonard not as good as Green at the 2 spot leaves Green as your only option at this time.