Bigman Combinations: The Raw Stats

[timvp]

In a recent thread, Mel_13 had the following request:
I would be interested in seeing a breakdown of all the possible two-man combinations that can be formed from our four bigs in terms of offensive and defensive performance.It sounded interesting, so I researched the numbers.

I present the results with limited commentary to allow the numbers to speak for themselves. Plus, I'm interested in the conclusions others draw from these numbers.

Here are the bigman combinations in the order of most minutes played together:

Tim Duncan and DeJuan Blair
424.96 minutes
103.46 points per 100 possessions
100.74 points allowed per 100 possessions
91.38 possessions per 48 minutes
94.54 points per 48 minutes
92.17 points allowed per 48 minutes

Tiago Splitter and Matt Bonner
346.93 minutes
113.69 points per 100 possessions
99.07 points allowed per 100 possessions
89.93 possessions per 48 minutes
102.25 points per 48 minutes
88.82 points allowed per 48 minutes

Tim Duncan and Matt Bonner
144.86 minutes
105.07 points per 100 possessions
95.13 points allowed per 100 possessions
91.45 possessions per 48 minutes
96.09 points per 48 minutes
84.16 points allowed per 48 minutes

Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter
98.92 minutes
97.81 points per 100 possessions
103.87 points allowed per 100 possessions
88.80 possessions per 48 minutes
86.86 points per 48 minutes
91.22 points allowed per 48 minutes

Tiago Splitter and DeJuan Blair
64.22 minutes
106.35 points per 100 possessions
104.54 points allowed per 100 possessions
94.18 possessions per 48 minutes
100.16 points per 48 minutes
103.15 points allowed per 48 minutes

Tiago Splitter and Small Ball
51.94 minutes
105.05 points per 100 possessions
102.80 points allowed per 100 possessions
91.49 possessions per 48 minutes
96.11 points per 48 minutes
101.66 points allowed per 48 minutes

DeJuan Blair and Matt Bonner
50.62 minutes
100.00 points per 100 possessions
112.12 points allowed per 100 possessions
91.98 possessions per 48 minutes
91.98 points per 48 minutes
105.25 points allowed per 48 minutes

Tim Duncan and Small Ball
47.84 minutes
97.32 points per 100 possessions
87.78 points allowed per 100 possessions
97.32 possessions per 48 minutes
93.31 points per 48 minutes
79.26 points allowed per 48 minutes

DeJuan Blair and Small Ball
44.71 minutes
106.02 points per 100 possessions
121.43 points allowed per 100 possessions
89.1 possessions per 48 minutes
94.48 points per 48 minutes
109.51 points allowed per 48 minutes




This charts shows the points per 100 possessions the Spurs score when the different bigman combinations are on the court. As a team, the Spurs average 106.0 points per 100 possessions; each combo is color coded based on that number.
http://oi41.tinypic.com/2re0hgl.jpg



This charts shows the points per 100 possessions the Spurs allow when the different bigman combinations are on the court. As a team, the Spurs average 101.3 points allowed per 100 possessions; each combo is color coded based on that number.
http://oi42.tinypic.com/o0pc2g.jpg


This charts shows how many points the Spurs outscore their opponents per 100 possessions when the different bigman combinations are on the court. As a team, the Spurs outscore their opponents by 4.7 points per 100 possessions; each combo is color coded based on that number.
http://oi42.tinypic.com/30ixgdl.jpg



P.S.

Bonus points to whoever can take that data and make a useful graph. Tried a couple ways but wasn't too helpful.

[ElNono]

The 2nd and 3rd chart are the same... wrong link?

[mathbzh]

Bonner-Splitter rules :hat

[Kori Ellis]

The 2nd and 3rd chart are the same... wrong link?

Yeah I think wrong link. He went to go pick up our son from school, I'll tell him to fix it when he gets back.

[z0sa]

Tim Duncan and Matt Bonner averaging -8 PtsAll per 100 compared to Tim Duncan and Splitter.

Additionally, they allow less than 85PPG.

While I actually don't agree with this stat, the Bonner "1-dimensional shitty defender" style haters really need to let that one soak in.

[jesterbobman]

So, Splitter or Duncan(a post up threat at Centre) plus Matt Bonner(Floor spacing efficiency king) is a good combination. Who would've thought that?

Keeping that combination of skill sets out there constantly would have great value, which is why Lorbek(next year) or a trade for another floor spacing big(mountainballer's Ersan Ilyasova suggestion) has so much appeal.

I think most people on this board would put Splitter and Duncan as our 2 best bigs, and they are. But the best combination of bigs is Bonner and one of those guys.

Imagine you're getting takeaways. Splitter an Duncan are both burgers, Bonner is Fries. You prefer each of the burgers, but if you're eating two things, you probably want a burger and fries.

[GSH]

Really, really nice work. And much appreciated. Three words just leap to mind, after looking at that:

DaJuan. Blair's. Defense.

Maybe we have our reason why Splitter isn't starting. It's because pairing DaJuan with Duncan at least hides his defensive deficiencies a little bit. It's pretty obvious he can't be out there with a small lineup.

[Shifty]

2 best big man combinations are TD/Bonner and Tiago/Bonner. That includes defense!

[101A]

Fire Pop

[Spurminator]

Man, Tim Duncan sucks. :lol

[lurker23]

Very interesting stats, thanks for assembling them. There's a lot of nuggets to be unpacked there, and it might take some time. Some quick takeaways:

-Worst defensive pairing: Bonner/Blair (expected)

-Best defensive big: Duncan (no surprise, despite reports of his demise)

-Worst offensive combination (not including small ball): Duncan/Splitter
--This is a pretty interesting one, and probably the reason Pop has limited this combination. The $1,000 question: is this due to a lack of chemistry and playing time together, or are there true problems in style that make this duo bog down the offense?

-While timvp's last link isn't working currently, it appears the best +/- (excluding small ball) are Duncan/Bonner and Splitter/Bonner. We already know Bonner is the king of +/-, so this shouldn't be a huge surprise. However, it does bring up some intriguing arguments about what the best in-game (not necessarily crunch-time) combinations are. Obviously, the current bench that includes Splitter/Bonner (currently along with Green, Neal, and one other) is a viable option. But another one that springs to mind is this:

Starters: Parker/Neal/Leonard/Duncan/Bonner
Bench: (Green or Ford)/Manu/Jefferson/Splitter/Blair

Downside: Bonner guarding starting big men, but is Blair much better? Also, one might question the defensive chemistry of that second unit.

Upside: Bonner/Duncan combo has done well. You keep Leonard in the starting lineup to guard the opposing team's best player. The addition of Neal and Bonner makes up for 3-pointers lost from Jefferson out of the lineup. Also, you make Manu the true floor general of the 2nd unit, and pair him with two players who feed off of him well, Jefferson and Blair.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It would be a huge undertaking but normalizing performance to the opposing defenses average performance would be very insightful.

My first reaction is 'Goddamnit Pop, Free Splitter,' but then I think that Duncan is facing first teams and Splitter is up against backups.

Good stuff nonetheless, sir. I love how sabermetrics is making a push in pro basketball. There are hundreds and hundreds of possessions to create a very large sample size.

[timvp]

Damn, shouldn't have posted and ran.

Fixed now. Apologies.

[ElNono]

Minute distribution

http://i41.tinypic.com/opcwol.png



Points per 100 possessions

http://i39.tinypic.com/sd1su0.png



Points allowed per 100 possessions

http://i44.tinypic.com/f9mejp.png



Possessions per 48 minutes

http://i41.tinypic.com/2qu59ts.png



Points per 48 minutes

http://i43.tinypic.com/2yunjb6.png



Points allowed per 48 minutes

http://i44.tinypic.com/2gsmutv.png

[roycrikside]

I think the Bonner/Splitter stats need to be taken with a grain of salt. They often play against the other team's backups too, so their numbers will look more impressive than they really are.

As for Bonner's defense, the problem isn't necessarily that he's a terrible defender. The problem is people THINK he's a terrible defender, and thus go right at him every game with confidence. At this level what separates the great from the good and the good from the average is often confidence. Every guy who goes against Bonner thinks he's gonna dominate him. Also, Bonner gives up too many offensive rebounds and the refs give him zero respect.

[mercos]

Nice work on assembling all those stats. One thing the stats prove that I think most have come to admit is Bonner is having a pretty good year. He started slow and looked awful at the very beginning but he has really turned it around. The question becomes can he keep up this level of play in the playoffs. We have been burned before.

The Tim-Tiago numbers do not surprise me. It appears to me that Pop has not figured out how to use them together offensively. Their last appearance together looked promising. They alternated between the two of them in the low block and completely shut down the paint on defense. I still believe this is our best lineup if configured correctly. If Tiago is not going to start then Bonner should at least be promoted. Blair is not cutting it.

[MaNu4Tres]

Nice work :tu

I still don't think Duncan and Splitter have played together enough to accurately compute the true data of them two.

Also, to break it down even farther, I'm curious about each combinations points in the paint allowed per 100 possessions/ per 48 minutes.

[roycrikside]

I also think a big reason for the offensive struggles of the Duncan/Splitter combination is not having Manu. Obviously that's the case for every combination, but my point is that if we have him and Tony in there, it would allow us to have a dominant defense inside and still have enough scoring from the guards where not having a floor-spacing big is as much of a weakness.

[maverick1948]

Maybe this explains why Pop keeps Duncan or Splitter on the floor at all times. For Bonner to be so good we have to understand that he does spread the floor and on most nights he must contribute on defense or else we would not have as much difference in the defense of all the combinations. Also, our second unit has seen a lot action against other teams first team. Maybe we have a better set of bigs than people give credit. Hell maybe we are better than even some of the Spurs fans think.

[chazley]

God I must be such an idiot defending Bonner for 2 years straight. He sucks.

[z0sa]

God I must be such an idiot defending Bonner for 2 years straight. He sucks.

yeah, this is just about proof positive that the haters are flat out, indisputably wrong and don't know as much as they think they do about what constitutes good defense.

additionally, this calls into question whether bonner really HAS choked in the playoffs. He may not have shot it well but that doesn't mean his d has been inadequate or he has not continued to spread the floor.

[ElNono]

Some trends stick like a sore thumb... Blair is without a doubt the worst defender of the bunch...

There's some discrepancy on offense between per 100 and per 48, but Splitter is somewhat the constant there. I believe it has to do with the system being built specifically for a true low-post treat surrounded by shooters. Tim has gone away from the low-post game a bit as he has aged, so not surprised to see the effectiveness in scoring increasing with Tiago on that role.

I'll keep peeking and updating the post with any other observations...

[ElNono]

additionally, this calls into question whether bonner really HAS choked in the playoffs. He may not have shot it well but that doesn't mean his d has been inadequate or he has not continued to spread the floor.

You want to post his numbers in the playoffs so we can determine that?

[mathbzh]

Maybe this explains why Pop keeps Duncan or Splitter on the floor at all times. For Bonner to be so good we have to understand that he does spread the floor and on most nights he must contribute on defense or else we would not have as much difference in the defense of all the combinations. Also, our second unit has seen a lot action against other teams first team. Maybe we have a better set of bigs than people give credit. Hell maybe we are better than even some of the Spurs fans think.

As a regular season player, Bonner is really underrated IMHO.
A problem, as clearly illustrated by timvp numbers is that he must be used next to a competent bigman (Tim or Tiago... sorry Dejuan).

He can play some defense but needs a true defensive big next to him. Paired with Blair, he gets exposed and his terrible. On offense he needs a big who can use the space created by Bonner's presence.

Bonner as a starter is problematic. You can't match him with top PF and hope he will not get destroyed.

So I guess playing him with Splitter is the best choice.

My concern with that is about the playoffs time... What happen with toughest defense and shortened rotation. I am not too optimistic there but who knows... maybe the Bonner/Splitter combo will also work in the PO

[z0sa]

You want to post his numbers in the playoffs so we can determine that?

I would rather be familiar with the numbers first. I'm not sure if he has or he hasn't officially choked, at this point.

[timvp]

Maybe we have our reason why Splitter isn't starting. It's because pairing DaJuan with Duncan at least hides his defensive deficiencies a little bit. It's pretty obvious he can't be out there with a small lineup.

I had a similar thought when I saw the numbers. Basically, if you are going to play Blair, you better play him next to Duncan if you have any hope of not getting killed defensively.

[ElNono]

I still don't think Duncan and Splitter have played together enough to accurately compute the true data of them two.

I agree. I also think you have to bring familiarity into the equation too. Tim just isn't going to be as comfortable playing with Tiago out there as he is with Matt or Blair, guys he has played with consistently with for one season or more.

With that said, that we're seeing such high production from Tiago is certainly encouraging...

[timvp]

-Worst defensive pairing: Bonner/Blair (expected)

-Best defensive big: Duncan (no surprise, despite reports of his demise)

-Worst offensive combination (not including small ball): Duncan/SplitterThose would have been my guesses before seeing the numbers. Interesting that the numbers back it up.


--This is a pretty interesting one, and probably the reason Pop has limited this combination. The $1,000 question: is this due to a lack of chemistry and playing time together, or are there true problems in style that make this duo bog down the offense?Yeah, that's the question. I personally think it's a lack of chemistry. But even though I really, really believe that ... it's obviously not something anyone can prove.

[jestersmash]

ElNono I love your posts man but I can't for the life of me figure out what most of those pie charts (beyond minutes played) are supposed to tell us :lol

Looking at points per 100 possessions - what does 100% of the pie chart represent? What do we take away from the fact that Splitter-Bonner = 12.16% in this category?

[ElNono]

I had a similar thought when I saw the numbers. Basically, if you are going to play Blair, you better play him next to Duncan if you have any hope of not getting killed defensively.

And looking at the numbers, I have to agree... for all the (rightful) praise Matt gets for his good work on defense so far, that Blair-Bonner combo numbers just resonate all too well with confirmation bias...

The thing though, if you really want to build some Splitter-Duncan chemistry, now it's the time to do it. You can't wait until the playoffs.

[Old School 44]

I think the Bonner/Splitter stats need to be taken with a grain of salt. They often play against the other team's backups too, so their numbers will look more impressive than they really are.


Yes, the Spurs reserves are playing much better than most other team's reserves. Where as the starter's output is more of a wash compared to the other teams starters.

[timvp]

Nice work with the graphs, ElNono.


As for Bonner's defense, the problem isn't necessarily that he's a terrible defender. The problem is people THINK he's a terrible defender, and thus go right at him every game with confidence.:lol That reminds me of the classic Rasheed Wallace quote: "Pass the god damn ball to whoever Bonner is guarding!"


Also, Bonner gives up too many offensive rebounds

The Spurs are actually best at grabbing defensive rebounds when Bonner is on the court. The top three in that stat are Bonner, Duncan and Leonard.

[timvp]

I also think a big reason for the offensive struggles of the Duncan/Splitter combination is not having Manu.


I still don't think Duncan and Splitter have played together enough to accurately compute the true data of them two.

Agreed on both counts.

But regarding minutes, what do you think is an acceptable sample size? It's probably too small now but it's gotta be getting pretty close . . .

[ElNono]

ElNono I love your posts man but I can't for the life of me figure out what most of those pie charts (beyond minutes played) are supposed to tell us :lol

Sorry, I admit the pie chart might not be as useful (except for the minutes distribution), but I though at least the sorting of the legends ranked by the percentage was helpful.


Looking at points per 100 possessions - what does 100% of the pie chart represent? What do we take away from the fact that Splitter-Bonner = 12.16% in this category?

The legend is sorted by most productive to less productive (in that case). What that tells you is that the Splitter-Bonner combination scores more points per 100 possessions than any of the other combos. It's basically the same list timvp posted, but sorted by that specific criteria, instead of minutes.

[timvp]

additionally, this calls into question whether bonner really HAS choked in the playoffs. He may not have shot it well but that doesn't mean his d has been inadequate or he has not continued to spread the floor.

As much as these stats make Bonner look good, I've calculated the same stats based solely on his work in the playoffs. And let's just say those numbers are even uglier than I thought. I mean ... wow . . .

:smchode:

[ElNono]

With that said, I'd like to get the most useless pie chart award for the Possessions per 48 chart... :lol

[jestersmash]

Tiago-Bonner and Tim-Bonner have the largest positive scoring differentials.

Not only does Tim-Tiago have a negative scoring differential, they don't even rank the best in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions.

Of course, given that all of these stats are correlations anyway, it's possible to rationalize this away by saying "maybe just coincidentally when Tiago and Tim have been on the floor together our perimeter players have dropped the ball with poor defense and the spurs were primarily outscored at the perimeter." This is certainly plausible (but again, unprovable).

My "eyeball test" has shown the Tiago-Tim combination to generally have the best defense around the rim. Interesting stats all around, though.

[DesignatedT]

Maybe we have our reason why Splitter isn't starting. It's because pairing DaJuan with Duncan at least hides his defensive deficiencies a little bit. It's pretty obvious he can't be out there with a small lineup.

This makes sense. Duncan is still by far the Spurs best defender (best big man) and pairing the weakest of the 4 with him only makes sense at this point. It makes 0 sense to start Tim/Tiago when your backups or 2nd unit will consist of Bonner/Blair. Saying that, Blair is still getting too many minutes and Tiago needs to take those. At the end of the day another big man is needed.


On another note, Bonner has played well all year long and the people hating on him will never stop. His defensive #s this year have been fantastic but the haters refuse to acknowledge them. When the Spurs struggle he will always be a scape goat.

[ElNono]

Bonner will only gain redemption in the playoffs... that's the reality of it...

[DesignatedT]

Bonner's drop in 3pt % once the bright lights turn on is indeed frustrating and there's no excuse for it. He does serve a purpose out there in this particular offense though and that is to spread the floor and open up the paint.(hence the offensive #s are up when he's in the game) He does this quite well when he's on the floor at all times, even when his shot isn't falling at 50%. As #s continue to show he isn't as bad defensively as people make him out to be and this fallacy really needs to go away.

All this being said I don't think Bonner is more than a 3rd or 4th big man on a championship team. Certainly not a 2nd. We still need to trade for a big man IMO and eliminate Blair from the equation.

[DPG21920]

This makes sense. Duncan is still by far the Spurs best defender (best big man) and pairing the weakest of the 4 with him only makes sense at this point. It makes 0 sense to start Tim/Tiago when your backups or 2nd unit will consist of Bonner/Blair. Saying that, Blair is still getting too many minutes and Tiago needs to take those. At the end of the day another big man is needed.


On another note, Bonner has played well all year long and the people hating on him will never stop. His defensive #s this year have been fantastic but the haters refuse to acknowledge them. When the Spurs struggle he will always be a scape goat.

Disagree. Most acknowledge him in the regular season. We just see its been fools gold come playoff time to date. Even if he doesn't choke this year, it doesn't change that fact and at this point we have to hope he miraculously changes history.

[DPG21920]

Bonner's drop in 3pt % once the bright lights turn on is indeed frustrating and there's no excuse for it. He does serve a purpose out there in this particular offense though and that is to spread the floor and open up the paint.(hence the offensive #s are up when he's in the game) He does this quite well when he's on the floor at all times, even when his shot isn't falling at 50%. As #s continue to show he isn't as bad defensively as people make him out to be and this fallacy really needs to go away.

All this being said I don't think Bonner is more than a 3rd or 4th big man on a championship team. Certainly not a 2nd. We still need to trade for a big man IMO and eliminate Blair from the equation.

His defense in the playoffs and rebounding has been atrocious. It's not a fallacy.

[DPG21920]

Spurs must do whatever it takes to get another big, a starting caliber big to remove Blair from the equation.

[timvp]

Since the defensive stats this year make Matt Bonner look like the second coming of Hakeem Olajuwon, here's a reminder of how much Bonner's defense has historically fallen off in the playoffs.

In the graph below, the blue line illustrates how many points the Spurs allowed per 100 possessions with Bonner on the court during that year's playoff run, the orange line is how many points per 100 possesions the team allowed as a whole, and the yellow line is how many points per 100 possessions the Spurs allowed when Bonner was on the bench.

http://oi44.tinypic.com/21kms6x.jpg

It's interesting that the defense minus Bonner hasn't gotten that much worse since the championship days. But when Bonner is added in, the Spurs just can't defend in the playoffs.

What's odd is that Bonner's regular season defensive numbers are usually either good or great. Come playoff time, though, those numbers go on the toilet.

What are some possible explanations? Is anyone going to claim small sample size? Does the above graph make Bonner regular season fool's gold?







I didn't mean to derail the thread but I don't think it's worthwhile to get too excited about Bonner's defense unless there's a way to solve his defensive struggles in the postseason . . .

[ElNono]

Hopefully these are a bit more useful

http://i41.tinypic.com/14kxn42.png

http://i43.tinypic.com/55qnvr.png

[jestersmash]

Hopefully these are a bit more useful

http://i41.tinypic.com/14kxn42.png

Nice graph :tu. This one's much easier to read.

[DPG21920]

As an aside, is it me or have the Spurs hidden RC since The Incident? He's been a ghost this year it feels like.

[ElNono]

http://oi44.tinypic.com/21kms6x.jpg


Now you've done it... :pctoss

:lol

[lurker23]

What's odd is that Bonner's regular season defensive numbers are usually either good or great. Come playoff time, though, those numbers go on the toilet.

What are some possible explanations? Is anyone going to claim small sample size? Does the above graph make Bonner regular season fool's gold?


I was claiming small sample size up until about a postseason or two ago. It was easy to claim small sample size when he had played 132 playoff minutes (through '08-09). Not so much now that he has played 429 playoff minutes.

As far as possible explanations, I can think of a few, but none of them are particularly encouraging or solvable. Can't play under pressure? Increased level of competition in the playoffs? Different style of play in the NBA in the playoffs?

The only one I can currently think of that is remotely optimistic is that maybe the Spurs didn't match up with the right teams for Bonner's style of play. While that gives you a little hope that he can contribute in certain series, it doesn't bode well for anything resembling a title run.

[angelbelow]

On another note, Bonner has played well all year long and the people hating on him will never stop. His defensive #s this year have been fantastic but the haters refuse to acknowledge them. When the Spurs struggle he will always be a scape goat.

Hypocritical to say that people don't acknowledge him when you say hes been playing well all year. The first 15 games of the season he looked completely done as a NBA player. Whether he was injured or out of shape, he looked terrible. Bonner looked awesome since then and most have agreed.

Also, his defensive rating is worse than last years and on par with 2 years before that. His offensive rebounding % has been reduced by half since last season (5.0 in 2011, 2.3 this year.) His total rebounding % has dropped since 2006. All things considered, his defense is still below average.

[ElNono]

What are some possible explanations?

Personally, I think it's matchups, matchups, matchups... He is:

A) Not a shot blocker
B) Not a guy to take charges
C) Not a guy that responds well to physicality

Would you go at him or at Duncan on a consistent basis?

Playoffs key a lot more on individual matchups than anything you see in the regular season. They simply have much more value because you're going to be playing the same team over and over. The regular season, on the other hand, is more about getting team play ready for the playoffs.

[angelbelow]

Its easy to see why Tiago and Bonner work so well.

-Tiago has developed into an excellent decision maker in the post. He either gets a high percentage shot or makes a nice pass. Hes been able to find Bonner for a wide open wing 3pt every single game.
-Bonner spreads the floor well for him, and Bonner happens be on absolute fire right now. The combination of sharpshooting from Bonner and inside dominance from Splitter is really effective.

As for a Duncan, Splitter combo, I'm confident that it would work. Especially if Parker and Ginobili are in the back court. Ginobili and Splitter were already clicking but now it looks like Splitter and Parker's chemistry is growing by the minute. I have a hard time believing the offense would be stagnant with 4 of our best scorers/play makers on the court at the same time.

[SA210]

I also think a big reason for the offensive struggles of the Duncan/Splitter combination is not having Manu.

[z0sa]

I knew Bonner has played below his regular season level in the playoffs... but such a vast difference, I just don't understand.

[lurker23]

As for a Duncan, Splitter combo, I'm confident that it would work. Especially if Parker and Ginobili are in the back court. Ginobili and Splitter were already clicking but now it looks like Splitter and Parker's chemistry is growing by the minute. I have a hard time believing the offense would be stagnant with 4 of our best scorers/play makers on the court at the same time.

I agree, in the long run it's really hard to imagine that 4-man combo being anything but effective on both ends, and (barring a trade) I expect that to be the crunch-time lineup come April.

The only problem is that Manu is the only 3-point shooter among those 4, and even he has been shaky behind the arc since his career year in '07-08. Ideally you'd like Kawhi to be the 5th player in that lineup, but unless he can learn the corner three post-haste, you probably have to go with Neal or Jefferson.

[timvp]

In the graph below, the blue line illustrates how many points the Spurs allowed per 100 possessions with Bonner on the court during that year's playoff run, the orange line is how many points per 100 possessions the team allowed as a whole, and the yellow line is how many points per 100 possessions the Spurs allowed when Bonner was on the bench.

http://oi44.tinypic.com/21kms6x.jpg

Same graph but for the regular season:

http://oi40.tinypic.com/28bw9yg.jpg

So in the regular season, Bonner's been an asset defensively three of the last five seasons. And even in the two other seasons, he wasn't too bad.


P.S.

The explanation of Bonner's defense looking good this year because he comes off the bench and thus faces worse players loses some validity because Bonner started for much of the 2009 season and his defensive numbers were good that year too.

[MannyIsGod]

The most useful graph would likely be trend lines on the +/- of each big man combo against time. Are there game by game splits available that show the stats listed in the OP on a game by game basis?

[DPG21920]

Another partial aside: If it could bring back a starting quality big (define that as you will), is it a crucial enough need due to the window the Spurs have at a title shot to give up Kawhi in a deal to secure that player? I think it is.

[Russ]

Same graph but for the regular season:

http://oi40.tinypic.com/28bw9yg.jpg

So in the regular season, Bonner's been an asset defensively three of the last five seasons. And even in the two other seasons, he was too bad.


P.S.

The explanation of Bonner's defense looking good this year because he comes off the bench and thus faces worse players loses some validity because Bonner started for much of the 2009 season and his defensive numbers were good that year too.

Could someone do a similar graph for Bonner's three-point percentage during the reg season vs. playoffs?

I bet the graphs would be mirror images of each other . . .

(And it would be more significant because Bonner's perceived value is supposed to be on offense.)

[DPG21920]

As an aside, is it me or have the Spurs hidden RC since The Incident? He's been a ghost this year it feels like.

Nothing?

[roycrikside]

Since the defensive stats this year make Matt Bonner look like the second coming of Hakeem Olajuwon, here's a reminder of how much Bonner's defense has historically fallen off in the playoffs.

In the graph below, the blue line illustrates how many points the Spurs allowed per 100 possessions with Bonner on the court during that year's playoff run, the orange line is how many points per 100 possesions the team allowed as a whole, and the yellow line is how many points per 100 possessions the Spurs allowed when Bonner was on the bench.

http://oi44.tinypic.com/21kms6x.jpg

It's interesting that the defense minus Bonner hasn't gotten that much worse since the championship days. But when Bonner is added in, the Spurs just can't defend in the playoffs.

What's odd is that Bonner's regular season defensive numbers are usually either good or great. Come playoff time, though, those numbers go on the toilet.

What are some possible explanations? Is anyone going to claim small sample size? Does the above graph make Bonner regular season fool's gold?







I didn't mean to derail the thread but I don't think it's worthwhile to get too excited about Bonner's defense unless there's a way to solve his defensive struggles in the postseason . . .


Obviously I have no proof, but three reasonable guesses are

1) Teams game plan more in the playoffs than the regular season, since they know they're going against a specific opponent for a series of games. Maybe teams look to go at Bonner more in the playoffs and try to wear him down over a series of games since he's not the most physical guy...

2) There's generally more physical, interior play in the playoffs. Teams that may not be as post-oriented try doing it more when it matters, because that's what works in May and June, the inside-out game, instead of the flex offense and driving and kicking.

3) Just some bad matchups. In 2008 we lost to the Lakers. Big team with Gasol, Bynum and Odom. In 2009 we lost to Dallas, who have Dirk. In 2010 it was Dallas again, who we beat, and then Phoenix, with Amare on the pick and roll and Frye shooting threes. Last year it was Memphis with the other Gasol and Z-Bo.

It's depressing to think about, but I think Bonner's stats look good because there are just a lot of crappy teams in the NBA, with a lot of crappy benches. In the playoffs everyone you play is good, especially in the West, where just about any contender has at least one big starter who's a monster and another one off the bench who's a scoring threat. There's 6-8 teams out there out of a 30 team league who will really give Bonner problems, but the fact is we're always going to run into those teams in the playoffs. It's not a coincidence.

All that being said, there has definitely been some "choking" by Bonner in the playoffs. Even with the mismatches, he shouldn't have played as badly as he has, so you would hope (pray? dream?) that he'll eventually be due for a good postseason in 2012. Regardless of how he gets burned on defense, he should still be able to shoot better than he has. One shouldn't affect the other.

But yes, I would very much like to see the mpg for Splitter and Bonner get flipped in the playoffs. 30 mpg for Splitter would be good.

[timvp]

Could someone do a similar graph for Bonner's three-point percentage during the reg season vs. playoffs?

I bet the graphs would be mirror images of each other . . .

(And it would be more significant because Bonner's perceived value is supposed to be on offense.)

Hmmm ... I'll tackle that real quick.


Nothing?

Bro, no offense but that is pretty random aside for the topic at hand.

[lurker23]

Another partial aside: If it could bring back a starting quality big (define that as you will), is it a crucial enough need due to the window the Spurs have at a title shot to give up Kawhi in a deal to secure that player? I think it is.

It's a tough question. In essence, it's a question of present vs. future. With Anderson and Blair having tough years, the only thing Spurs fans can confidently point to 2-3 years from now are Parker, Splitter, and probably Kawhi. As such, he's a very, very tough piece to give up.

However, I think you have to say that, if offered a starting caliber PF/C who you feel gives you a 60% chance or better of winning the Western Conference, you probably have to pull the trigger. (That said, the previous sentence was tough to type.)

[SpurNation]

This is really nice work. A lot of time, effort and labor of love to which helps derive an understanding of the combinations of big man rotations. To which it would be interesting to know who the supporting players during those durations were on the court at the same time to know if their presence also made a difference in these figures.

Some combinations, without having these figures, have been somewhat obvious as to which combinations have worked the best just through visual observation. I find it strange some have not witnessed that Blair needs to be paired with Duncan. And it's why Pop does so. And without the numbers...it was evident that a Blair/Bonner tandem does not work.

But to me what the graphs/charts/figures define the most is it depends on if the Spurs would be playing a game where they would be getting 100 possessions or more OR if they would be playing in a game where their number of possessions would be limited to under 100 in a 48 minute game.

El NoNo's chart illustrates it clear. If the Spurs are playing a faster paced game when the number of possessions would be higher...they have 6 combinations of big man rotations that provide more points scored than allowed than in a slower paced game of less than 100 possessions in a 48 minute period. At least that's what the numbers are showing me in those charts.

But it is interesting to see that a Splitter/Blair combo does better than what I thought. To which...if it be the case that Manu helps Blair perform better...perhaps another reason to have Manu come off the bench and perhaps start Bonner with Duncan since it appears that the team's defense is better when Bonner is on the court as opposed to Blair. Which in turn would also help elevate the starting squads points which also was a concern.

[silverblackfan]

Nice job and lots of great numbers to digest. :toast
I must say that since you have been providing these statistical break downs, the whole site seems to be improving. Fans like to talk about their team without a lot of drama. These posts seem to bring out the great discussions.

[silverblackfan]

Tim Duncan and Small Ball
47.84 minutes
97.32 points per 100 possessions
87.78 points allowed per 100 possessions
97.32 possessions per 48 minutes
93.31 points per 48 minutes
79.26 points allowed per 48 minutes



Seems like one reason Pop runs this line up...

[silverblk mystix]

All of this when you could just open your eyes and watch a Spurs game.

You will see the obvious;

Bonner is just not a good player. Tiago is a good player.
Pop chooses to overplay a shitty player and Pop chooses to underplay a good player.

I didn't even need a graph or a pie chart to tell me that.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I try so so hard to like Bonner. I really do. Seeing his regular season vs playoffs data officially makes it impossible, barring a solid playoff run for the Red Rocket.

[timvp]

Matt Bonner Points Per 36 Minutes
http://oi39.tinypic.com/68wi83.jpg




Matt Bonner Three-Point Percentage
http://oi41.tinypic.com/21o1y.jpg




Matt Bonner Threes Made Per 36 Minutes
http://oi44.tinypic.com/2rw19q8.jpg


So, in the playoffs, Bonner's defense crumbles and his three-point shooting becomes pedestrian ... to put it nicely.

The only somewhat positive I can take away from those three charts is Bonner's increasing points per minute numbers in the playoffs. While that could be a sign that he might be choking less, a closer looks makes it appear to more of a fluke: Last year in the playoffs, he was 8-for-10 at the free throw line in 123 minutes. Considering that this year in the regular season he has shot only 14 total free throws in 547 minutes, we can't exactly count on Bonner's points getting inflated due to him getting to the charity stripe.

IMO, while his three-point percentage in the playoffs is troubling, the fact that he makes much less in the playoffs is even more troubling. Although both probably trail in the "troubling" department when compared to his defense.

The Bonner Conundrum would be comical if it wasn't so sad. He's a damn useful player in the regular season but then becomes useless in the playoffs. Do you take the 5 or 6 bonus wins he gives you in the regular season even though he won't help you in the playoffs? Pop obviously thinks so. Personally, I'd rather take the regular season losses and give minutes to a player who could actually help in the playoffs ... but that's easy to say on the outside looking in.

[silverblk mystix]

Matt Bonner Points Per 36 Minutes
http://oi39.tinypic.com/68wi83.jpg




Matt Bonner Three-Point Percentage
http://oi41.tinypic.com/21o1y.jpg




Matt Bonner Threes Made Per 36 Minutes
http://oi44.tinypic.com/2rw19q8.jpg


So, in the playoffs, Bonner's defense crumbles and his three-point shooting becomes pedestrian ... to put it nicely.

The only somewhat positive I can take away from those three charts is Bonner's increasing points per minute numbers in the playoffs. While that could be a sign that he might be choking less, a closer looks makes it appear to more of a fluke: Last year in the playoffs, he was 8-for-10 at the free throw line in 123 minutes. Considering that this year in the regular season he has shot only 14 total free throws in 547 minutes, we can't exactly count on Bonner's points getting inflated due to him getting to the charity stripe.

IMO, while his three-point percentage in the playoffs is troubling, the fact that he makes much less in the playoffs is even more troubling. Although both probably trail in the "troubling" department when compared to his defense.

The Bonner Conundrum would be comical if it wasn't so sad. He's a damn useful player in the regular season but then becomes useless in the playoffs. Do you take the 5 or 6 bonus wins he gives you in the regular season even though he won't help you in the playoffs? Pop obviously thinks so. Personally, I'd rather take the regular season losses and give minutes to a player who could actually help in the playoffs ... but that's easy to say on the outside looking in.

I commend you for being nice and tactful....

I wish I could be so forgiving...but I can't...

I think Pop sucks.

[ElNono]

:pop: "It wouldn't be fair to the team"

[angelbelow]

Nothing?

Probably, dwi is pretty serious IMO. But unlike my college buddies he should be fine financially so hes probably just hoping this blows over from a media standpoint.


I agree, in the long run it's really hard to imagine that 4-man combo being anything but effective on both ends, and (barring a trade) I expect that to be the crunch-time lineup come April.

The only problem is that Manu is the only 3-point shooter among those 4, and even he has been shaky behind the arc since his career year in '07-08. Ideally you'd like Kawhi to be the 5th player in that lineup, but unless he can learn the corner three post-haste, you probably have to go with Neal or Jefferson.

Good point about the 3pt shooting, is 2005 Bruce available? If James Anderson panned out he could have been really interesting option as the 5th player too. Out of the 3 back up swingmen, James Anderson's play making has impressed me the most but ofcousre, he hasn't had that much playing time so his playmaking could be a flaky.

[Russ]

The Bonner Conundrum would be comical if it wasn't so sad. He's a damn useful player in the regular season but then becomes useless in the playoffs.

I've always said Bonner could be used as an "innings eater" starting pitcher in baseball.

The "innings eater" is the fifth starter who protects your stud pitchers from too many innings until the post-season starts.

Then you put the "innings eater" in the bull pen (long relief). In other words, you never see him again unless the game is a blowout either way.

Bonner could be a great "innings eater" for the Spurs. Why? Because the Spurs need to preserve the few effective bigs (Duncan and Splitter) that they have for the playoffs. Bonner can spell either of them in less important games and hit some threes along the way to buy time for them to rest.

The problem comes when that strategy does not get revised in the playoffs.

[therealtruth]

The Bonner/small ball experiment has run on too long. The last time we won we had 3 quality 6'10" and taller bigs (Oberto, Horry, and Elson) that are better than Bonner/Blair. Right now we only have Tiago but Pop doesn't believe in him because he doesn't spread the floor.

[SpurNation]

The Bonner Conundrum would be comical if it wasn't so sad. He's a damn useful player in the regular season but then becomes useless in the playoffs. Do you take the 5 or 6 bonus wins he gives you in the regular season even though he won't help you in the playoffs? Pop obviously thinks so. Personally, I'd rather take the regular season losses and give minutes to a player who could actually help in the playoffs ... but that's easy to say on the outside looking in.

The only problem is that the Spurs don't have another option to give minutes to. Not unless before the end of the season they can bring in another big or Blair overcomes himself as well.

Again...this year...all we have is hope Bonner will not fade away in the playoffs.

[therealtruth]

I've always said Bonner could be used as an "innings eater" starting pitcher in baseball.

The "innings eater" is the fifth starter who protects your stud pitchers from too many innings until the post-season starts.

Then you put the "innings eater" in the bull pen (long relief). In other words, you never see him again unless the game is a blowout either way.

Bonner could be a great "innings eater" for the Spurs. Why? Because the Spurs need to preserve the few effective bigs (Duncan and Splitter) that they have for the playoffs. Bonner can spell either of them in less important games and hit some threes along the way to buy time for them to rest.

The problem comes when that strategy does not get revised in the playoffs.

It's hard to change your stripes in the playoffs. That's why I don't like relying on Bonner in the regular season. He's a one dimensional player that plays alot of minutes and is rendered useless in the playoffs. If Duncan was younger his post scoring and defense could make up for Bonner's lack of it. But as he's gotten older the team needs more post scoring and defense.

[SpurNation]

Right now we only have Tiago but Pop doesn't believe in him because he doesn't spread the floor.

I don't think that be true. Pop has to...as pointed out in the charts and graphs...manipulate Splitters time to best get the most production he can get from the team as a whole.

[Obstructed_View]

As for Bonner's defense, the problem isn't necessarily that he's a terrible defender. The problem is people THINK he's a terrible defender, and thus go right at him every game with confidence. At this level what separates the great from the good and the good from the average is often confidence. Every guy who goes against Bonner thinks he's gonna dominate him. Also, Bonner gives up too many offensive rebounds and the refs give him zero respect.

It's also the difference between being a really good team defender and being a really good individual defender. Bonner is one and not the other. Once his opponent has the ball against him, they're probably going to score if he can't get them to give up the ball. Getting no respect from the zebras also hurts him because he doesn't have length or jumping ability.

Personally, I'd like to see Bonner figure that he's going to get whistled anyway and just foul when someone gets over on him. Ducking away or just keeping his hands in the air while he looks at the ref isn't doing him any good. One of the best ways to discourage guys from going at you is to make them hurt enough to think about it before they come back.

[therealtruth]

Matt Bonner Points Per 36 Minutes
http://oi39.tinypic.com/68wi83.jpg




Matt Bonner Three-Point Percentage
http://oi41.tinypic.com/21o1y.jpg




Matt Bonner Threes Made Per 36 Minutes
http://oi44.tinypic.com/2rw19q8.jpg


So, in the playoffs, Bonner's defense crumbles and his three-point shooting becomes pedestrian ... to put it nicely.

The only somewhat positive I can take away from those three charts is Bonner's increasing points per minute numbers in the playoffs. While that could be a sign that he might be choking less, a closer looks makes it appear to more of a fluke: Last year in the playoffs, he was 8-for-10 at the free throw line in 123 minutes. Considering that this year in the regular season he has shot only 14 total free throws in 547 minutes, we can't exactly count on Bonner's points getting inflated due to him getting to the charity stripe.

IMO, while his three-point percentage in the playoffs is troubling, the fact that he makes much less in the playoffs is even more troubling. Although both probably trail in the "troubling" department when compared to his defense.

The Bonner Conundrum would be comical if it wasn't so sad. He's a damn useful player in the regular season but then becomes useless in the playoffs. Do you take the 5 or 6 bonus wins he gives you in the regular season even though he won't help you in the playoffs? Pop obviously thinks so. Personally, I'd rather take the regular season losses and give minutes to a player who could actually help in the playoffs ... but that's easy to say on the outside looking in.

I don't know if it's realistic to expect Bonner to be able to match his RS 3pt shooting percentage. Few players do. That's just the reality of playoff basketball. Less attempts that have more meaning. Really the best you can hope is a player hits the shots when it counts.

[Obstructed_View]

I've always said Bonner could be used as an "innings eater" starting pitcher in baseball.

The "innings eater" is the fifth starter who protects your stud pitchers from too many innings until the post-season starts.

Then you put the "innings eater" in the bull pen (long relief). In other words, you never see him again unless the game is a blowout either way.

Bonner could be a great "innings eater" for the Spurs. Why? Because the Spurs need to preserve the few effective bigs (Duncan and Splitter) that they have for the playoffs. Bonner can spell either of them in less important games and hit some threes along the way to buy time for them to rest.

The problem comes when that strategy does not get revised in the playoffs.

I agree with this. This season it looks like he's going to have at least one lineup that excels with him, so I'd like to see him get a try in the postseason with it. Otherwise, there are other guys that can soak up his minutes.

[Obstructed_View]

What are some possible explanations? Is anyone going to claim small sample size? Does the above graph make Bonner regular season fool's gold?

Lottery teams don't typically have bigs that can iso on him because if they have one decent big Duncan takes him. Playoff offenses go inside more and exploit matchups. Since Bonner has been on the team the Spurs have run a lot of their offense outside in instead of inside out, which just kills any chance of Bonner having a chance to shoot.

[therealtruth]

Those would have been my guesses before seeing the numbers. Interesting that the numbers back it up.

Yeah, that's the question. I personally think it's a lack of chemistry. But even though I really, really believe that ... it's obviously not something anyone can prove.

We've seen Duncan play well with Oberto so it can definitely work. Splitter is a more skilled Oberto.

[therealtruth]

I was claiming small sample size up until about a postseason or two ago. It was easy to claim small sample size when he had played 132 playoff minutes (through '08-09). Not so much now that he has played 429 playoff minutes.

As far as possible explanations, I can think of a few, but none of them are particularly encouraging or solvable. Can't play under pressure? Increased level of competition in the playoffs? Different style of play in the NBA in the playoffs?

The only one I can currently think of that is remotely optimistic is that maybe the Spurs didn't match up with the right teams for Bonner's style of play. While that gives you a little hope that he can contribute in certain series, it doesn't bode well for anything resembling a title run.

That's a good point and Pop has to recognize whether Bonner will be useful in a playoff series. Stojakovic killed the Lakers in the playoffs but was much less useful against the Heat. I think Carlisle saved the Mavs by removing him from the rotation.

[Obstructed_View]

We've seen Duncan play well with Oberto so it can definitely work. Splitter is a more skilled Oberto.

Difference is Oberto was 20 feet from the basket and Duncan was on the low block. You've got to convince Duncan that he can function out high when he's in with Splitter. The plate is all set for it, particularly with Duncan's really good outside shooting. Once those two discover the high/low that Duncan and Robinson used to live off, all bets are off.

[timvp]

The most useful graph would likely be trend lines on the +/- of each big man combo against time. Are there game by game splits available that show the stats listed in the OP on a game by game basis?

Looked into it but not really possible without doing a lot of leg work. Although that did give me the idea to look at the same stats from last year and compare them to this year . . .

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah, I figured as much. I'm pretty sure what you would see is a drop off of Blair Duncan and a pretty damn big rise in Splitter Bonner but I doubt many others would change too much. Maybe Bonner Duncan a bit more.

[anonoftheinternets]

Matt Bonner Points Per 36 Minutes
http://oi39.tinypic.com/68wi83.jpg




Matt Bonner Three-Point Percentage
http://oi41.tinypic.com/21o1y.jpg




Matt Bonner Threes Made Per 36 Minutes
http://oi44.tinypic.com/2rw19q8.jpg


So, in the playoffs, Bonner's defense crumbles and his three-point shooting becomes pedestrian ... to put it nicely.

The only somewhat positive I can take away from those three charts is Bonner's increasing points per minute numbers in the playoffs. While that could be a sign that he might be choking less, a closer looks makes it appear to more of a fluke: Last year in the playoffs, he was 8-for-10 at the free throw line in 123 minutes. Considering that this year in the regular season he has shot only 14 total free throws in 547 minutes, we can't exactly count on Bonner's points getting inflated due to him getting to the charity stripe.

IMO, while his three-point percentage in the playoffs is troubling, the fact that he makes much less in the playoffs is even more troubling. Although both probably trail in the "troubling" department when compared to his defense.

The Bonner Conundrum would be comical if it wasn't so sad. He's a damn useful player in the regular season but then becomes useless in the playoffs. Do you take the 5 or 6 bonus wins he gives you in the regular season even though he won't help you in the playoffs? Pop obviously thinks so. Personally, I'd rather take the regular season losses and give minutes to a player who could actually help in the playoffs ... but that's easy to say on the outside looking in.

Well we should obviously compare that to how the rest of the spurs outside manu hit their threes in the last 3 years before coming to that conclusion. Maybe teams stay at home on the three point shooters and dont double parker/duncan more in the PO so the wide open three's are more difficult to come by...

[timvp]

This charts shows the points per 100 possessions the Spurs score when the different bigman combinations are on the court. As a team, the Spurs average 106.0 points per 100 possessions; each combo is color coded based on that number.
http://oi41.tinypic.com/2re0hgl.jpg
This charts shows the points per 100 possessions the Spurs scored last year when the different bigman combinations were on the court. As a team, the Spurs averaged 111.4 points per 100 possessions; each combo is color coded based on that number.
http://oi42.tinypic.com/22n5ti.jpg



This charts shows the points per 100 possessions the Spurs allow when the different bigman combinations are on the court. As a team, the Spurs average 101.3 points allowed per 100 possessions; each combo is color coded based on that number.
http://oi42.tinypic.com/o0pc2g.jpg
This charts shows the points per 100 possessions the Spurs allowed last year when the different bigman combinations were on the court. As a team, the Spurs averaged 105.0 points allowed per 100 possessions; each combo is color coded based on that number.
http://oi41.tinypic.com/snkz05.jpg



This charts shows how many points the Spurs outscore their opponents per 100 possessions when the different bigman combinations are on the court. As a team, the Spurs outscore their opponents by 4.7 points per 100 possessions; each combo is color coded based on that number.
http://oi42.tinypic.com/30ixgdl.jpg
This charts shows how many points the Spurs outscored their opponents last year per 100 possessions when the different bigman combinations were on the court. As a team, the Spurs outscored their opponents by 6.3 points per 100 possessions; each combo is color coded based on that number.
http://s14.postimage.org/sa8uvoecv/biglast4.jpg

[timvp]

Thoughts when comparing last year to this year:

-Duncan was a beast on offense and defense with each pairing. I haven't looked yet but the pairing of Duncan and McDyess must have been pretty bad or else Duncan's plus/minus would have been through the roof.

-Blair needing Duncan next to him to not be a disaster on defense is consistent.

-It's pretty safe to say Pop should never play Blair next to Bonner or Blair with small ball.

-Duncan and Splitter's stats last year look good but the sample size was really small. (I'll post all the details later.)

-Splitter and Bonner being good together is nothing new.

-Small ball works ... as long as Duncan is the big.

-And probably most importantly, if the coaching staff looked at these numbers in the offseason, starting Duncan and Blair and backing them up with Splitter and Bonner was mathematically the way to go ... as long as they wanted to go four bigs deep.

Still don't agree with not starting Duncan and Splitter together but I guess if the goal is to maximize Blair and Bonner, the coaches are using the right alignment.

[underdawg]

y'all are funny - if you think the improvement in defense this year (ranked 12th) has a lot to do with Bonner keep believing. Didn't we see similar stats last year (maybe Timvp just posted them again) about the best bigman combo being Duncan and Bonner? How did that work out?
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say that these stats show that Bonner plays good defense - what do you attribute that to based on Bonner's abilities? Is it purely because of his rotations, is it his post up defense or even defense on bigs outside the paint?
I can't explain the stats and while I won't argue with them, I don't believe Bonner has much to do with the defense improving this year. The biggest factors I see watching the game have been the overall play has improved, but mostly the strong defensive effort from Leonard, Green and Tiago. I understand there might not be stats to show that, but I'll say it now - if Tiago and Leonard are not getting major minutes by the playoffs the Spurs will have a tough time getting out of the first round. The Big 3 are no longer effective enough on offense to beat teams in the playoffs without also having a good defense to help out.

[underdawg]

Thoughts when comparing last year to this year:

-Duncan was a beast on offense and defense with each pairing. I haven't looked yet but the pairing of Duncan and McDyess must have been pretty bad or else Duncan's plus/minus would have been through the roof.

-Blair needing Duncan next to him to not be a disaster on defense is consistent.

-It's pretty safe to say Pop should never play Blair next to Bonner or Blair with small ball.

-Duncan and Splitter's stats last year look good but the sample size was really small. (I'll post all the details later.)

-Splitter and Bonner being good together is nothing new.

-Small ball works ... as long as Duncan is the big.

-And probably most importantly, if the coaching staff looked at these numbers in the offseason, starting Duncan and Blair and backing them up with Splitter and Bonner was mathematically the way to go ... as long as they wanted to go four bigs deep.

Still don't agree with not starting Duncan and Splitter together but I guess if the goal is to maximize Blair and Bonner, the coaches are using the right alignment.

I understand that you're just making observations based on the stats, but can we agree that:
-small ball has not been mostly successful for the Spurs in the playoffs
-large minutes for Bonner in the playoffs has not been successful
-as the Spurs defense has dramtically declined, their performance in the playoffs has declined just as dramtically.
-the Spurs currently have 2 "go to" options and recently in the playoffs if Manu and Tony are shut out of the paint and their shots are not falling, the Spurs could not score.

Playing Bonner large minutes in the season makes no sense (stats aside) if he is incapable of translating his regular season success into the playoffs. Even when he's played well - he doesn't do enough to fill in the holes that are left by 1 or 2 of the big 3 being off or shut down. That's happened more and more over the past few years in the playoffs and at this point, Taigo and Leonard seem to be the only hope to remedy not having a full strength of the big 3 on offense/defense. So basically, these stats don't mean crap when it really counts.

[therealtruth]

y'all are funny - if you think the improvement in defense this year (ranked 12th) has a lot to do with Bonner keep believing. Didn't we see similar stats last year (maybe Timvp just posted them again) about the best bigman combo being Duncan and Bonner? How did that work out?
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say that these stats show that Bonner plays good defense - what do you attribute that to based on Bonner's abilities? Is it purely because of his rotations, is it his post up defense or even defense on bigs outside the paint?
I can't explain the stats and while I won't argue with them, I don't believe Bonner has much to do with the defense improving this year. The biggest factors I see watching the game have been the overall play has improved, but mostly the strong defensive effort from Leonard, Green and Tiago. I understand there might not be stats to show that, but I'll say it now - if Tiago and Leonard are not getting major minutes by the playoffs the Spurs will have a tough time getting out of the first round. The Big 3 are no longer effective enough on offense to beat teams in the playoffs without also having a good defense to help out.

Bonner's defense stats are good because he's surrounded by good defenders.

[Keepin' it real]

Given that Bonner is serviceable in the regular season but flops in the playoffs, that's why i say milk him for reg season wins to get a higher seed, but in the playoffs, change it up: run a couple of plays for him, if he hits his 3s, keep him in ... but if he's typical playoff bonner (shrinking in the moment), bench him till the next game.

We all know the bench gets shorter in the playoffs. Bonner should be the first to spend more time on the bench unless he drains his first couple of 3s in each game.

[Leetonidas]

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7grgbgf

Let's do it

[Borosai]

For the sake of efficiency of distribution, Matty should just start selling his shit as hair gel.

[underdawg]

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7grgbgf

Let's do it

Here you go - Toronto does this deal because of Bonner's defensive prowess:
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=8ymst3y

[ElNono]

One other factor that also needs to be taken into account is that with Kawhi and Green our perimeter defense has also improved somewhat from last season, which puts less of a pressure on our bigs. Those guys (especially Kawhi) have also been rebounding at very good rates.

Which would both partially explain guys like Bonner being more serviceable (Matt has tremendous problems when he's being directly attacked by perimeter guys, the good old backpedal-hands up defense, which hasn't features as much this season so far) and also makes Blair's pathetic effort on D even more inexcusable.

[angelbelow]

Thoughts when comparing last year to this year:

-Duncan was a beast on offense and defense with each pairing. I haven't looked yet but the pairing of Duncan and McDyess must have been pretty bad or else Duncan's plus/minus would have been through the roof.

-Blair needing Duncan next to him to not be a disaster on defense is consistent.

-It's pretty safe to say Pop should never play Blair next to Bonner or Blair with small ball.

-Duncan and Splitter's stats last year look good but the sample size was really small. (I'll post all the details later.)

-Splitter and Bonner being good together is nothing new.

-Small ball works ... as long as Duncan is the big.

-And probably most importantly, if the coaching staff looked at these numbers in the offseason, starting Duncan and Blair and backing them up with Splitter and Bonner was mathematically the way to go ... as long as they wanted to go four bigs deep.

Still don't agree with not starting Duncan and Splitter together but I guess if the goal is to maximize Blair and Bonner, the coaches are using the right alignment.

Damn, nice work.

[100%duncan]

great work timvp. IMO, I'll go with Duncan and Splitter most of the times in big games

[TDMVPDPOY]

duncan needs to accept that dice/robinson role where his just another role player on the court and take a seat back to splitter....

[Spurs Brazil]

I think it shows the Front Office didn't work well in the offseason. Last year playoffs showed TD needed help. With Dice retiring things got even worst.

Bonner is decent for regular season but chokes in playoffs. I have no hope for Blair. Too small and dumb for any impact on D and now he thinks he can create his offense.

In the playoffs Tiago and TD need to play major minutes and we have to pray Bonner or Blair can give something (I don't think they will)

Thanks for the great work timvp

[DrSteffo]

Thanks timvp and all the good posters in this thread.

[Interrohater]

Blair is embarrassing. I need a new sig. Instead of "the Beast", now we just have "the Beef".

[Interrohater]

Bonner's defense stats are good because he's surrounded by good defenders.

There's nothing wrong with this. If he has subpar defense, you're supposed to do this. Let him and Neal chuck all day long, let green and kawhi defend all day long. I'm down. They're role players, it's what they do.

[Mel_13]

In a recent thread, Mel_13 had the following request:It sounded interesting, so I researched the numbers.

Thanks for taking the request.

Excellent analysis and good discussion.

Care to point me to the source for the data?

[Spursfanfromafar]

Thanks for taking the request.

Excellent analysis and good discussion.

Care to point me to the source for the data?

should let Timvp answer that question...

But this is an excellent location for starters.

http://basketballvalue.com/teamunits.php?year=2011-2012&team=SAS

[Mel_13]

should let Timvp answer that question...

But this is an excellent location for starters.

http://basketballvalue.com/teamunits.php?year=2011-2012&team=SAS

Thanks.

Never saw that site before. Bookmarked now.

[rmt]

TD and Splitter need to play more together (now) to figure out their offense. When crunch time comes in the playoffs, I think a line-up of TD, Splitter, Manu, Neal and TP gives us our best chance. Either TD's jumper or Manu's 3pt shot needs to be on (preferably both).

With the pathetic (those playoff charts are horrific) playoff play of Bonner, maybe TD could play 35 mins, Splitter 37 mins. with as little Bonner and as much small ball as possible (since the small ball numbers of both TD and Splitter look good). And no Blair in the playoffs.

[SpurNation]

should let Timvp answer that question...

But this is an excellent location for starters.

http://basketballvalue.com/teamunits.php?year=2011-2012&team=SAS

If anything it showed the reason to start Parker, Neal, Leonard, BONNER, Duncan. Sample = Minutes 14.20. Overall rating 50.00 (highest rated player combination of any playing more than 1 quarter of action as a unit)

[GSH]

Here are the bigman combinations in the order of most minutes played together:

Tim Duncan and DeJuan Blair
424.96 minutes
103.46 points per 100 possessions
100.74 points allowed per 100 possessions
91.38 possessions per 48 minutes
94.54 points per 48 minutes
92.17 points allowed per 48 minutes

Tiago Splitter and Matt Bonner
346.93 minutes
113.69 points per 100 possessions
99.07 points allowed per 100 possessions
89.93 possessions per 48 minutes
102.25 points per 48 minutes
88.82 points allowed per 48 minutes




I was out of town when you posted this, so I didn't comment at the time. But a couple of things sort of stood out:

I was surprised that the duo with the second most minutes together was Tiago/Bonner. I'm sure some will say "it's obvious", but that pairing wouldn't have leaped to mind for me. At the time Timvp posted this, Bonner and Tiago both had almost the same total minutes for the season, which is convenient. Basically, Tiago and Bonner have both spent almost 2/3 of their season on the floor with each other. (By the same measure, about 70% of Blair's minutes have been with Tim, while about 60% of Tim's minutes have been with Blair.)

One thing that was REALLY surprising about the Tiago/Bonner pairing is that the pace of the game is really slow when they are in together. Usually when the pace of a Spurs game is slow, it's a good thing because it means they are playing good defense. It could also mean that they the offense is stagnant and struggling late into every shot clock, but with the team scoring at such a high rate and outscoring the opponents, that doesn't really fit. (Note that when Blair plays with the smalls, the pace also slows to a crawl. The Spurs still score at a decent rate, but their defense is non-existent.) Put all that together and it really looks like the Splitter/Bonner combo isn't a case of misleading stats - they really have been effective. Maybe some of it is a case of playing against the other teams' bench players, but that's fine. It still means that there is a significant portion of games when we consistently kick the other team's ass.

It's obvious that the team scores a lot when Tiago and Bonner are in together. What would be interesting to know is if Tiago and Bonner are doing a significant portion of their scoring when they are in the game together, or if they are doing more to allow the other guys to score? In other words, do they score at a higher or lower rate when they are on the floor with each other, or with Tim? Does Bonner score less when he's on the floor with Tim, due to fewer opportunities - or more because of more wide-open looks? Basically what is it that actually makes the Tiago/Bonner combo tick?

[silverblk mystix]

Data my ass....you want to know the only thing and the best thing that will give the spurs the best chance this season?

Here it is;

Matt Bonner suffering a season-ending injury.

That's it. If this happens everything will fall into place.
Timmy will be timmy, Blair can play without being replaced by Bonner, Tiago can take his spot right next to Timmy....

Everything will be an improvement....

The biggest improvement?


Fuckhead coach can get that Bonner temptation out of his fuckin' hands....he can actually help this team instead of being the biggest detriment that he is right now.

No-one wants the truth though, but this is it.

[Solid D]

Based on timvp's fine set of numbers, here are the point differentials:

Tim Duncan and DeJuan Blair
+2.72 Point Diff./100 possessions
+2.37 Point Diff./48 minutes

Tiago Splitter and Matt Bonner
+14.62 Point Diff./100 possessions
+13.43 Point Diff./48 minutes

Tim Duncan and Matt Bonner
+9.94 Point Diff./100 possessions
+11.93 Point Diff./48 minutes

Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter
-6.06 Point Diff./100 possessions
-4.36 Point Diff./48 minutes

Tiago Splitter and DeJuan Blair
+1.81 Point Diff./100 possessions
-2.99 Point Diff./48 minutes

Tiago Splitter and Small Ball
+2.25 Point Diff./100 possessions
-5.55 Point Diff./48 minutes

DeJuan Blair and Matt Bonner
-12.12 Point Diff./100 possessions
-13.27 Point Diff./48 minutes

Tim Duncan and Small Ball
+9.54 Point Diff./100 possessions
+14.05 Point Diff./48 minutes

DeJuan Blair and Small Ball
-15.41 Point Diff./100 possessions
-15.03 Point Diff./48 minutes

[Solid D]

Splitter, in a Memphis interview, talked about how well he and Matt and Tony have been working together.

Of course, it doesn't take a genius to see these numbers and see what DeJuan does to the combinations. Just awful. Matt Bonner mixed with a legitimate Big, however, should make the haters at least take pause between bashings.

[ChumpDumper]

Data my ass....you want to know the only thing and the best thing that will give the spurs the best chance this season?

Here it is;

Matt Bonner suffering a season-ending injury.

That's it. If this happens everything will fall into place.
Timmy will be timmy, Blair can play without being replaced by Bonner, Tiago can take his spot right nest to Timmy....

Everything will be an improvement....

The biggest improvement?


Fuckhead coach can get that Bonner temptation out of his fuckin' hands....he can actually help this team instead of being the biggest detriment that he is right now.

No-one wants the truth though, but this is it.lol daily meltdown

[DPG21920]

Splitter, in a Memphis interview, talked about how well he and Matt and Tony have been working together.

Of course, it doesn't take a genius to see these numbers and see what DeJuan does to the combinations. Just awful. Matt Bonner mixed with a legitimate Big, however, should make the haters at least take pause between bashings.

Solid, with all due respect, did you see the numbers of Matt in the playoffs? They tell a scary different story and that is with him paired with competent bigs.

Regular season Matt has never been an issue really.

[Solid D]

Basically what is it that actually makes the Tiago/Bonner combo tick?

It's a combination of spreading the floor and the efficiency with which Splitter runs the screen/rolls. Parker and Neal both seem to flourish in the 2-man game with Tiago.

[ChumpDumper]

spreading the floor:nope

[Solid D]

Solid, with all due respect, did you see the numbers of Matt in the playoffs? They tell a scary different story and that is with him paired with competent bigs.

Regular season Matt has never been an issue really.

Yes, I've seen the numbers and I've seen his playoff perfomance with my own eyes. It's disappointing and I've bashed his defense, as well.

That leaves the Spurs with Timmy and small-ball in the playoffs, unless Matt can change his ways in May & June.

[Solid D]

Yeah, I praised spreading the floor and small ball in the same thread. :smokin

[DPG21920]

Why is Tim/Tiago out in your eyes, Solid?

[Solid D]

They haven't worked that much together in games, so you don't have much to judge them on.

[therealtruth]

Data my ass....you want to know the only thing and the best thing that will give the spurs the best chance this season?

Here it is;

Matt Bonner suffering a season-ending injury.

That's it. If this happens everything will fall into place.
Timmy will be timmy, Blair can play without being replaced by Bonner, Tiago can take his spot right nest to Timmy....

Everything will be an improvement....

The biggest improvement?


Fuckhead coach can get that Bonner temptation out of his fuckin' hands....he can actually help this team instead of being the biggest detriment that he is right now.

No-one wants the truth though, but this is it.

I want Bonner to go as much as I wanted Finley gone. Pop will have win with real big man again instead of stretch 4's. Horry's ability to hit the 3 was nice to have but I believe all the other stuff he brought such as his defense, rebounding, and smarts were more important.

[DPG21920]

They haven't worked that much together in games, so you don't have much to judge them on.

So that means you don't give your two best bigs a chance? Or are you only referencing what the numbers tell you to date?

[Solid D]

I think when Tim and Tiago do work together, they need to run the Flex or other motion stuff and not so much 2-man screen/roll (too easy for the opposing Bigs to help in the lane). When playing with Tiago, Tim needs to play high post and out on the floor more. Tiago doesn't shoot well enough from the outside.

[Danny.Zhu]

Bonner-Splitter rules :hat

didn't see that coming...

[Solid D]

Based on timvp's fine set of numbers, here are the point differentials:

Tim Duncan and DeJuan Blair
+2.72 Point Diff./100 possessions
+2.37 Point Diff./48 minutes

Tiago Splitter and Matt Bonner
+14.62 Point Diff./100 possessions
+13.43 Point Diff./48 minutes

Tim Duncan and Matt Bonner
+9.94 Point Diff./100 possessions
+11.93 Point Diff./48 minutes

Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter
-6.06 Point Diff./100 possessions
-4.36 Point Diff./48 minutes

Tiago Splitter and DeJuan Blair
+1.81 Point Diff./100 possessions
-2.99 Point Diff./48 minutes

Tiago Splitter and Small Ball
+2.25 Point Diff./100 possessions
-5.55 Point Diff./48 minutes

DeJuan Blair and Matt Bonner
-12.12 Point Diff./100 possessions
-13.27 Point Diff./48 minutes

Tim Duncan and Small Ball
+9.54 Point Diff./100 possessions
+14.05 Point Diff./48 minutes

DeJuan Blair and Small Ball
-15.41 Point Diff./100 possessions
-15.03 Point Diff./48 minutes

In the Detroit game, we saw a little more time with the Duncan-Splitter combination. We also saw an uncharacteristically bad small ball lineup. Here are the straight-up +/- numbers for the Big-man combinations versus Detroit.

Duncan-Bonner +6
Duncan-Splitter +4
Duncan-Blair Even (0)
Splitter-Bonner Even (0)
Duncan small ball -7

Granted, the Duncan-Bonner combo wasn't effective because of Bonner's shooting. It had more to do with spacing and Tim and Tony stepping up in winning time.

[polandprzem]

It's a combination of spreading the floor and the efficiency with which Splitter runs the screen/rolls. Parker and Neal both seem to flourish in the 2-man game with Tiago.


Plus Splitt and Bonn are playing against other teams bench.


But mainly Bonner on the 3 pt lane and a perfect screens by Tiago makes the offense work. :tu


It's sad to see Blair regressed and after him being benched last year and being pissed about it.

[polandprzem]

Ofcourse Matt stats looks gr8 but we all know about his production in the playoffs .. :(

[timvp]

Working off what Solid D posted:

The Duncan and Splitter combo dominated on defense. They played together for 7:05 and gave up only nine points, which translates to 60.9 points per 48 minutes. However, the offense (88.1 points per 48 minutes) wasn't too hot with that duo on the court.

The offense was much better with Duncan/Bonner (128.6 pp48m) and Splitter/Bonner (103.9). Duncan/Blair's numbers translated out to 90.9 pp48m on offense and 84.9 pp48m on defense.

So basically, nothing too ground breaking. Duncan/Splitter very good on D, still a work in progress on offense. Bonner's presence helps the offense when Duncan or Splitter is on the court.



Tonight against the Raptors, I expect more Duncan/Splitter. They start Aaron Gray and Amir Johnson, so having bulk and length in the game will be important.

[therealtruth]

Working off what Solid D posted:

The Duncan and Splitter combo dominated on defense. They played together for 7:05 and gave up only nine points, which translates to 60.9 points per 48 minutes. However, the offense (88.1 points per 48 minutes) wasn't too hot with that duo on the court.

The offense was much better with Duncan/Bonner (128.6 pp48m) and Splitter/Bonner (103.9). Duncan/Blair's numbers translated out to 90.9 pp48m on offense and 84.9 pp48m on defense.

So basically, nothing too ground breaking. Duncan/Splitter very good on D, still a work in progress on offense. Bonner's presence helps the offense when Duncan or Splitter is on the court.



Tonight against the Raptors, I expect more Duncan/Splitter. They start Aaron Gray and Amir Johnson, so having bulk and length in the game will be important.

You can always work out the offense issues but the defensive improvement is worth it. TD and TS could have been much further along if Pop hadn't used Tiago's injuries against him.

[ChumpDumper]

You can always work out the offense issuesCan you always?

[sabar]

It's obvious that the team scores a lot when Tiago and Bonner are in together. What would be interesting to know is if Tiago and Bonner are doing a significant portion of their scoring when they are in the game together, or if they are doing more to allow the other guys to score? In other words, do they score at a higher or lower rate when they are on the floor with each other, or with Tim? Does Bonner score less when he's on the floor with Tim, due to fewer opportunities - or more because of more wide-open looks? Basically what is it that actually makes the Tiago/Bonner combo tick?

Since stats like that are difficult to get without paying large sums of cash for a database, I'll go with some bball theory to explain it, along with why his defense seems good in that lineup as well.

There are some key points that makes Splitter/Bonner deadly.

The first is that Splitter only does two things. First, be plays in the low post. Because he converts those at a high clip, it forces a help defender to sag off the shooters that we surround Splitter with. Other teams, they have trouble making rotations and end up getting burned or Splitter uses his foot-work for an easy bucket.

The second is that Splitter is excellent at pick-and-rolls. He is consistently getting clear paths to the basket and the ball-handler does a good job of finding him. This is also due to the fact that Parker has been playing extended minutes lately and we see a lot of Splitter+Parker.

A few other things can't be ignored. Splitter and Bonner usually play against bench bigs, and those two players are usually more skilled. Splitter has also been doing well against guard penetration, while Duncan/Blair generally give up more uncontested layups. Blair is also lazy on defense while Bonner at least gets his arms up. Timmy does very well against opposing bigs, but athletic guards or wings are trouble when they are slashing.

Another thing is that the second unit plays the game slower and generally takes better shots. Most possessions revolve around a Splitter post-up (can go for the bucket or make a pass if they send weak side/strong side help), a pick-and-roll, or a lot of off-the-ball screens in a flex-type offense that gets guys like Neal open shots.

So why is Bonner good with Splitter? It is simple, because Bonner is being used in a way that maximizes his game. It is by far the best line-up for someone that takes catch and shoot 3s. Timmy isn't in the low-block every play and he isn't commanding as much help defense as he used to when he does play down low. This allows players to play our shooters tighter and let Tim work.

Bonner isn't as useful with certain players, such as when Leonard is on the floor (he can be sagged off), when Blair is on the court (he plays no defense while Splitter or Duncan can anchor the paint, plus his offensive is very raw), or with Duncan (plays in the high post/key a bit too much to give Bonner room). The first unit calls a more screens that don't work and run more isolation and less motion. RJ also plays the exact role Bonner does. This just all adds up (and a lot of these things are problems with our starting unit, Bonner isn't the only one affected). I think most of it revolves around the ineffectiveness of Blair. He has to be force-fed to be good, and even then, that's only one side of the court.

Basketball is a team game, so an individual with weaknesses can have those weaknesses masked by certain lineups and situations. The reason that Bonner is less effective in the playoffs is because teams can force match-ups in their favor. In the playoffs, you can bet that defenses will close-out on the 3pt line and make better rotations. They will dare Splitter to go 1-on-1 with a post move more. They test your skill and throw lots of different bodies at you until they force your hand.

The problem is that Pop doesn't have any other big-man cards he can play, and one of those cards is a joker. Everyone already knows the solution: we need a big with any kind of respectable perimeter shot. Until then, someone has to cover for Blair's deficiencies and right now it is Timmy. The problem with playing Splitter and Duncan together is that either leaves the bench with no defensive anchor or makes the bench rotation a lot trickier to work (a.k.a, a lot more minutes for everyone not named Blair)

I think Pop is playing his hand right so far.

[therealtruth]

Basketball is a team game, so an individual with weaknesses can have those weaknesses masked by certain lineups and situations. The reason that Bonner is less effective in the playoffs is because teams can force match-ups in their favor. In the playoffs, you can bet that defenses will close-out on the 3pt line and make better rotations. They will dare Splitter to go 1-on-1 with a post move more. They test your skill and throw lots of different bodies at you until they force your hand.


I agree in the playoffs teams force your stars to beat them. And your role players have to make the open shots when the stars get double teamed. Individual talent is much more important in the playoffs.

[Fabbs]

Can you update this?

In a recent thread, Mel_13 had the following request:It sounded interesting, so I researched the numbers.

I present the results with limited commentary to allow the numbers to speak for themselves. Plus, I'm interested in the conclusions others draw from these numbers.

Here are the bigman combinations in the order of most minutes played together: