48 MOH: Splitter not getting big minutes because he's injury-prone

[Juggity]

Link (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/tiago-splitter-spurs-minutes)

Interesting hypothesis put forward by Andrew McNeill that I hadn't considered before.

Is the reason Tiago doesn't get a large amount of playing time because he has a history of nagging injuries and the Spurs rely on him to the extent that they cannot afford to lose him to any injury?

[lefty]

mmmm.........................


http://www.wugr.biz/Benny614tv/Main/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/this-is-gonna-be-good.gif

[TJastal]

Is the goal to win a championship or field a healthy team that will flame out in the 2nd round again?

Roll the dice Pop!!

[The Truth #6]

The injury hypothesis. That argument seems to imply that Pop is saving Tiago, which doesn't seem to be the case. If anything, he should be saving Tim even more for the playoffs considering how he wears down by the playoffs, and therefore playing Tiago more while he's on a roll. That's not happening, and it seems a stretch to think Tiago's role will all of a sudden improve in the playoff...until Pop goes into "panic mode".

[TJastal]

The injury hypothesis. That argument seems to imply that Pop is saving Tiago, which doesn't seem to be the case. If anything, he should be saving Tim even more for the playoffs considering how he wears down by the playoffs, and therefore playing Tiago more while he's on a roll. That's not happening, and it seems a stretch to think Tiago's role will all of a sudden improve in the playoff...until Pop goes into "panic mode".

Good point. How incredibly dumb is it to severely limit Splitter's role and PT because of a worry over whether he might suffer a "nagging injury"? If anything, the way his minutes have been on a yo-yo dating back to last year it's highly more likely he'll get hurt.

Oh, and meanwhile all this does is burn 36 year old Tim Duncan into the ground. For good measure.

:bang

[TJastal]

Do these guys at 48 minutes of hell get paid to kiss Popovich's ass or something?

[ChumpDumper]

Good point. How incredibly dumb is it to severely limit Splitter's role and PT because of a worry over whether he might suffer a "nagging injury"? If anything, the way his minutes have been on a yo-yo dating back to last year it's highly more likely he'll get hurt.

Oh, and meanwhile all this does is burn 36 year old Tim Duncan into the ground. For good measure.

:banglol career low

[Keepin' it real]

"48 MOH: Splitter not getting big minutes because he's injury-prone"

Geez, if that's the case, how many minutes should Manu be getting???

[jjktkk]

Do these guys at 48 minutes of hell get paid to kiss Popovich's ass or something?

Do you ever actually look up stats regarding the Spurs? I know you enjoy talking outta of your ass, but, come on, let google be your friend. :lol

[ChumpDumper]

"48 MOH: Splitter not getting big minutes because he's injury-prone"

Geez, if that's the case, how many minutes should Manu be getting???About 30 mpg. Less if the Spurs can get away with it.

[WeNeedLength]

Didn't read. LOL.

[TJastal]

Do you ever actually look up stats regarding the Spurs? I know you enjoy talking outta of your ass, but, come on, let google be your friend. :lol

schtickk, you should apply for a writing job at 48MOH, once they see your resume here at spurstalk you'll be a shoe-in.

:lol

[acoelho1]

I'm not buying this argument. If was an injury issue, Manu should be playing like 10mins a game :). Secondly, if Pop is saving him for the playoffs, wouldn't it make more sense to develop chemistry between TD and Splitter during the reg season and not in the midst of a tough playoff series. Unfortunately, I don't see Splitter's mins increasing significantly in the playoffs unless we are getting brutalized down low but by then, we will probably be down a couple of games in the series. What's the real reason.. who knows.

[TJastal]

I'm not buying this argument. If was an injury issue, Manu should be playing like 10mins a game :). Secondly, if Pop is saving him for the playoffs, wouldn't it make more sense to develop chemistry between TD and Splitter during the reg season and not in the midst of a tough playoff series. Unfortunately, I don't see Splitter's mins increasing significantly in the playoffs unless we are getting brutalized down low but by then, we will probably be down a couple of games in the series. What's the real reason.. who knows.

Pop's plan is to resume his development of the TD/Splitter chemistry once the playoffs begin, picking up where he left off in last year's playoffs.

:rollin

[jjktkk]

schtickk, you should apply for a writing job at 48MOH, once they see your resume here at spurstalk you'll be a shoe-in.

:lol

I'm actually considering writing a how to manuel on the dos and don'ts in posting on a sports forum and actually was wondering if i could use you to write a forward in my don't section. :lol

[ChumpDumper]

Given that the Tim/Tiago combo performs pretty badly at this point in a small sample size, what do its advocates see improving in it over time?

Just curious. Is it just a matter of Duncan's parking himself on the perimeter and Nealing with it?

[DesignatedT]

Just curious. Is it just a matter of Duncan's parking himself on the perimeter and Nealing with it?

This wouldn't be any good seeing that Duncan is still better in the post than Splitter.

[DPG21920]

Well Chump, on the flip side of that, in the small sample size last year with Tim/Tiago it worked quite well. That's what makes it confusing. But with the level of skill and decision making they both possess it should be able to work. Tim would have to play a little further out (which he's shown he can do decently well), but not exclusively. There are on paper issues with the pairing but no more than Tim/Blair and the upside is obviously significantly better. The issue is we have seen the need in the playoffs to have the ability to play Tim/Tiago together and right now it's a mixed bag on what we have with that line up both on the court and what it does to the bench.

[ChumpDumper]

Well Chump, on the flip side of that, in the small sample size last year with Tim/Tiago it worked quite well. That's what makes it confusing. But with the level of skill and decision making they both possess it should be able to work. Tim would have to play a little further out (which he's shown he can do decently well), but not exclusively. There are on paper issues with the pairing but no more than Tim/Blair and the upside is obviously significantly better. The issue is we have seen the need in the playoffs to have the ability to play Tim/Tiago together and right now it's a mixed bag on what we have with that line up both on the court and what it does to the bench.Do we have the advanced stats on the combos from the last playoffs.

I don't remember seeing them.

[DPG21920]

This wouldn't be any good seeing that Duncan is still better in the post than Splitter.

That's arguable. Also, even if you want to say Tims better there that doesn't make Tiago bad there by default. Tim is solid outside and Tiago is damn good inside. Plus, that's one side of the argument. I feel the need due to defense, not offense.

[TJastal]

Given that the Tim/Tiago combo performs pretty badly at this point in a small sample size, what do its advocates see improving in it over time?

Just curious. Is it just a matter of Duncan's parking himself on the perimeter and Nealing with it?

A torch of sorts needs to be passed from Duncan to Splitter. Given the effectiveness of the Splitter/TP P&R pairing, this would become the main staple of the offense, with the rest of the guys feeding off open looks generated from it. The Dejuan Blair experiment should be mercifully ended. If he's the main option down low the spurs are in big, big trouble.

But so far, Pop's played his hand the wrong way, and now it seems he just keeps doubling down on stupid to save face. Out of desperation he'll be once again forced to play the Tim / TS combo heavy minutes come playoff time and they of course will be out of touch and the likely result will be another playoff ejection.

[ChumpDumper]

A torch of sorts needs to be passed from Duncan to Splitter. Given the effectiveness of the Splitter/TP P&R pairing, this would become the main staple of the offense, with the rest of the guys feeding off open looks generated from it. The Dejuan Blair experiment should be mercifully ended. If he's the main option down low the spurs are in big, big trouble.

But so far, Pop's played his hand the wrong way, and now it seems he just keeps doubling down on stupid to save face. Out of desperation he'll be once again forced to play the Tim / TS combo heavy minutes come playoff time and they of course will be out of touch and the likely result will be another playoff ejection.So that's one vote for parking Tim in the perimeter pasture.

[DPG21920]

Do we have the advanced stats on the combos from the last playoffs.

I don't remember seeing them.

Ya, it's in the Timvp thread.

[ChumpDumper]

Ya, it's in the Timvp thread.OK. Will look.

[ChumpDumper]

Ya, it's in the Timvp thread.I saw one from last season but not the playoffs specifically.

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=5639940&postcount=88

OK, if that includes the playoffs, why is it so much worse now?

[spursfaninla]

So that's one vote for parking Tim in the perimeter pasture.

By the way, this is in agreement with Chump, and as a response to the OP he the above is responding to.

Timvp has elucidated the conundrum, although he still agrees (paradoxically) with those wanting splitter to get more minutes with Duncan. Here is the problem, in case you missed the bigman combinations: the Raw Numbers, here is a summary:

Splitter has no mid-range game. If he is going to play with Duncan, duncan gets no touches in the post during their time together, because Splitter's man will just sag off him knowing Splitter is no threat. Counter-point is that Blair also has no mid-range game.

However, the defensive pairing of Blair/Duncan, coupled with Splitter/Bonner, is the best combination of +/-, considering a 4 bigman rotation.

Tjastal (or whatever) has suggested 27 minutes between Duncan/Splitter/Bonner. That is suicide long-term. Plus for a 3 man rotation, you get 32 minutes each. Regardless, that is going to result is a very high minute 3 man rotation, and no team does that. NONE. Why is that? Because your bigmen are going to get hurt playing that many minutes, unless they are 20 years old.

Keep in mind: the most productive pairing is bonner/Splitter. Second is Duncan/bonner, and third is duncan/small ball. Using those combinations the most makes sense.

When you spew your rants regarding Splitter, who I am a huge fan of and who I want to play more, please consider the above, and raise the level of discussion instead of just thrashing around with no contribution to the collective knowledge.

Thanks.

[DesignatedT]

By the way, this is in agreement with Chump, and as a response to the OP he the above is responding to.

Timvp has elucidated the conundrum, although he still agrees (paradoxically) with those wanting splitter to get more minutes with Duncan. Here is the problem, in case you missed the bigman combinations: the Raw Numbers, here is a summary:

Splitter has no mid-range game. If he is going to play with Duncan, duncan gets no touches in the post during their time together, because Splitter's man will just sag off him knowing Splitter is no threat. Counter-point is that Blair also has no mid-range game.

However, the defensive pairing of Blair/Duncan, coupled with Splitter/Bonner, is the best combination of +/-, considering a 4 bigman rotation.

Tjastal (or whatever) has suggested 27 minutes between Duncan/Splitter/Bonner. That is suicide long-term. That is going to result is a very high minute 3 man rotation, and no team does that. NONE. Why is that? Because your bigmen are going to get hurt playing that many minutes, unless they are 20 years old.

Keep in mind: the most productive pairing is bonner/Splitter. Second is Duncan/bonner, and third is duncan/small ball. Using those combinations the most makes sense.

When you spew your rants regarding Splitter, who I am a huge fan of and who I want to play more, please consider the above, and raise the level of discussion instead of just thrashing around with no contribution to the collective knowledge.

Thanks.


Exactly.

At the end of the day there is really 1 solution to this whole thing and that is to acquire another big who can play.

[ChumpDumper]

Exactly.

At the end of the day there is really 1 solution to this whole thing and that is to acquire another big who can play.Beyond 15 ft.

[DPG21920]

Guy, we all know the advanced stats.

[DPG21920]

I saw one from last season but not the playoffs specifically.

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=5639940&postcount=88

OK, if that includes the playoffs, why is it so much worse now?

I honestly have no idea why. Maybe last years numbers were a fluke? I think the main point is we saw the need, and it appears inevitable again, to play Tim/Tiago together more in the playoffs. Rotations tighten and minutes rise in the playoffs for your best players and I think they need to be prepared.

The only reason that makes sense to me why we see so little of Tim/Tiago is because they feel the benefit of having a better starting 5 isnt offset by the damage to the bench. But in the playoffs it will likely be a 3 man rotation anyways (majority of minutes played). That or maybe they are confident of a trade or signing to pair next to Tim and don't feel the need to address this Tiago issue.

[spursfaninla]

Guy, we all know the advanced stats.

Yeah, well, you would think that. But tjastal, and others, keep posting about how we should be doing something different than what we are doing, when the data actually shows we are maximizing our bigmen personnel given a compressed schedule and an aging duncan.

People WISH there was a better answer, a simple answer, like PLAY SPLITTER MORE MINUTES. I want that answer, too. I am afraid it means less duncan, which might be ok. But basically every minute splitter is out there, so is BONNER.

And I don't know what we use for a trade. We gut this team to get a defensive bigman with an outside jumper.

[DPG21920]

Pop said he was dumb for not playing Oberto with Tim more and that lineup had the same issues. Blair has the same issues. I think the point is that the emphasis on fielding the best defensive team the majority of minutes is possibly being over looked bc everyone is focused on the possibilities of offensive short comings said lineup might create.

[angelbelow]

Beyond 15 ft.

If only we had another big who takes 75% of his shot attempts from the jump shot range other than Bonner.. oh wait..

Pulling off a trade right now would be a both a luxury and a need, not a solution. Need for obvious reasons but a luxury because would have to overpay due to our lack of assets.

[spursfaninla]

I honestly have no idea why. Maybe last years numbers were a fluke? I think the main point is we saw the need, and it appears inevitable again, to play Tim/Tiago together more in the playoffs. Rotations tighten and minutes rise in the playoffs for your best players and I think they need to be prepared.

The only reason that makes sense to me why we see so little of Tim/Tiago is because they feel the benefit of having a better starting 5 isnt offset by the damage to the bench. But in the playoffs it will likely be a 3 man rotation anyways (majority of minutes played). That or maybe they are confident of a trade or signing to pair next to Tim and don't feel the need to address this Tiago issue.

Why is it inevitable to play duncan/splitter in the playoffs? What makes you think that is going to actually work in practice? Because so far, it does not seem to work.

Specifically, I mean, what do you envision being the post-play strategy on offense with this tandem? Isn't it going to make offense predictable to have duncan away from the basket 3/4 of the game, and splitter camped there?

[angelbelow]

Pop said he was dumb for not playing Oberto with Tim more and that lineup had the same issues. Blair has the same issues. I think the point is that the emphasis on fielding the best defensive team the majority of minutes is possibly being over looked bc everyone is focused on the possibilities of offensive short comings said lineup might create.

Additionally, starting Splitter and Duncan would mean that Parker and Ginobili are there too. Impossible for the offense to be stagnant with 4 of our best scorers/playmakers. Splitters pick and roll is growing each and every game with Parker and was already strong with Ginobili. Tiago is also the superior finisher compared to Blair and is statistically less of a black-hole then Blair and to a lesser extent Duncan.

At the end of the day Duncan/Splitter combo isn't guaranteed to work but its damn well worth a shot.

[ChumpDumper]

If only we had another big who takes 75% of his shot attempts from the jump shot range other than Bonner.. oh wait..

Pulling off a trade right now would be a both a luxury and a need, not a solution. Need for obvious reasons but a luxury because would have to overpay due to our lack of assets.If they got the right player, why would it not be a solution?

[ChumpDumper]

I will grant that Manu's presence could change the current shit state of the Tim/Tiago combo, but isn't the bench productive in no small part to Splitter's presence in that lineup?

[temujin]

We were discussing this argument about Splitter last week, right here.

NSSN.

This guy is just a parasite visiting ST and extracting ideas.

[spursfaninla]

Pop said he was dumb for not playing Oberto with Tim more and that lineup had the same issues. Blair has the same issues. I think the point is that the emphasis on fielding the best defensive team the majority of minutes is possibly being over looked bc everyone is focused on the possibilities of offensive short comings said lineup might create.

Ok, that is fair. But, does the data back that up? Consider that blair/bonner, though both poor defenders, are different than duncan or splitter, in that they are more likely to be effective at defending a quicker, smaller power forward who has a mid-range shot.

Summary of points allowed for each combination of players:

Duncan/splitter
103.87 points allowed per 100 possessions

Duncan/bonner
95.13 points allowed per 100 possessions

splitter/bonner
99.07 points allowed per 100 possessions

duncan/blair
100.74 points allowed per 100 possessions

How is splitter/duncan the best defensive combination? I understand from a COMMON SENSE place, where they are the best individual bigmen defenders, that having them together would result in the best team defensive result. However, that is not happening.

Now, explain why you think more minutes together changes the above. I have given my hypothesis about why: power forwards. response?

[TJastal]

By the way, this is in agreement with Chump, and as a response to the OP he the above is responding to.

Timvp has elucidated the conundrum, although he still agrees (paradoxically) with those wanting splitter to get more minutes with Duncan. Here is the problem, in case you missed the bigman combinations: the Raw Numbers, here is a summary:

Splitter has no mid-range game. If he is going to play with Duncan, duncan gets no touches in the post during their time together, because Splitter's man will just sag off him knowing Splitter is no threat. Counter-point is that Blair also has no mid-range game.

However, the defensive pairing of Blair/Duncan, coupled with Splitter/Bonner, is the best combination of +/-, considering a 4 bigman rotation.

Tjastal (or whatever) has suggested 27 minutes between Duncan/Splitter/Bonner. That is suicide long-term. Plus for a 3 man rotation, you get 32 minutes each. Regardless, that is going to result is a very high minute 3 man rotation, and no team does that. NONE. Why is that? Because your bigmen are going to get hurt playing that many minutes, unless they are 20 years old.

Keep in mind: the most productive pairing is bonner/Splitter. Second is Duncan/bonner, and third is duncan/small ball. Using those combinations the most makes sense.

When you spew your rants regarding Splitter, who I am a huge fan of and who I want to play more, please consider the above, and raise the level of discussion instead of just thrashing around with no contribution to the collective knowledge.

Thanks.

27 minutes is suicide? Whaaaat? Really? I guess Mark & Pau Gasol must be the walking dead already, since they log 37 a game. Dirk & Bynum too. And about 50 other bigs that are currently logging 30+ a game.

This is ridiculous to treat our guys like big babies who cannot handle even lower end spectrum minutes.

I got an idea for you however. Go apply with schtickkk down at 48MOH.

[ChumpDumper]

27 minutes is suicide? Whaaaat? Really? I guess Mark & Pau Gasol must be the walking dead already, since they log 37 a game. Dirk & Bynum too. And about 50 other bigs that are currently logging 30+ a game.

This is ridiculous to treat our guys like big babies who cannot handle even lower end spectrum minutes.

I got an idea for you however. Go apply with schtickkk down at 48MOH.You were just complaining about Tim's wearing down.

[TJastal]

Ok, that is fair. But, does the data back that up? Consider that blair/bonner, though both poor defenders, are different than duncan or splitter, in that they are more likely to be effective at defending a quicker, smaller power forward who has a mid-range shot.

Summary of points allowed for each combination of players:

Duncan/splitter
103.87 points allowed per 100 possessions

Duncan/bonner
95.13 points allowed per 100 possessions

splitter/bonner
99.07 points allowed per 100 possessions

duncan/blair
100.74 points allowed per 100 possessions

How is splitter/duncan the best defensive combination? I understand from a COMMON SENSE place, where they are the best individual bigmen defenders, that having them together would result in the best team defensive result. However, that is not happening.

Now, explain why you think more minutes together changes the above. I have given my hypothesis about why: power forwards. response?

Recent history refresher course:

2008: Boston won a title with 6'10" Perkins and 7'1" Garnett.
2009-10: LA won 2 with Bynum & Gasol, a pair of 7 footers.
2011 Mavvies won a title last year starting two 7 footers.

See a pattern here?

[ChumpDumper]

Recent history refresher course:

2008: Boston won a title with 6'10" Perkins and 7'1" Garnett.
2009-10: LA won 2 with Bynum & Gasol, a pair of 7 footers.
2011 Mavvies won a title last year starting two 7 footers.

See a pattern here?Yeah, each of those had a player with a reliable perimeter game.

[spursfaninla]

27 minutes is suicide? Whaaaat? Really? I guess Mark & Pau Gasol must be the walking dead already, since they log 37 a game. Dirk & Bynum too. And about 50 other bigs that are currently logging 30+ a game.

This is ridiculous to treat our guys like big babies who cannot handle even lower end spectrum minutes.

I got an idea for you however. Go apply with schtickkk down at 48MOH.

Duncan is 36. Gasol(s) are 27 and 31. Memphis has an injured big that Marc needs to make up for, and the Lakers are stupidly overplaying Kobe and Gasol.

I think Splitter should be playing more minutes. I just don't know how to make it happen given the DATA.

BTW, the best comparison to duncan in age, among the guys you listed, is DIRK, and he is averaging 32.5 minutes a game. Still does not explain how to make duncan and Splitter coexist in any case.

[angelbelow]

If they got the right player, why would it not be a solution?

Big IF imo. I don't consider the trading route a solution to our problems because its too problematic and idealistic to assume one. How many attainable bigs do you think would fit with our team and be able to take 15-20 minutes right away? We've heard Amir Johnson, but he doesn't shoot from 15, we've heard Ed Davis, but he's not good from 15..


I will grant that Manu's presence could change the current shit state of the Tim/Tiago combo, but isn't the bench productive in no small part to Splitter's presence in that lineup?

Bench production is definitely a concern, however just because Splitter is in the starting line up doesn't hes banned from playing with the bench unit. By presence I assume you mean offensively? Because Neal spent most of the season ignoring Splitter in the post, actually most of the 2nd unit did. His main contribution was on defense. Splitter has been most effective when teamed up with Tony Parker, Green, Neal and Bonner. Next in line when teamed up with RJ, Parker, Bonner and Green. A mixture of starters and bench players.

[spursfaninla]

Recent history refresher course:

2008: Boston won a title with 6'10" Perkins and 7'1" Garnett.
2009-10: LA won 2 with Bynum & Gasol, a pair of 7 footers.
2011 Mavvies won a title last year starting two 7 footers.

See a pattern here?

The pattern is you wish duncan/splitter fit. The data says they perform poorly together. You have nothing else to add other than comparing splitter and duncan to other teams, stating that have the two tallest guys on the floor at the same time = championships. Wow. Everyone tell Timvp that he wasted a bunch of time looking up the numbers.

[ginobilized]

Only one man really knows why Splitter is getting 21 mpg and I don't expect him to tell us anytime soon as to why.

[ChumpDumper]

Big IF imo. I don't consider the trading route a solution to our problems because its too problematic and idealistic to assume one. How many attainable bigs do you think would fit with our team and be able to take 15-20 minutes right away? We've heard Amir Johnson, but he doesn't shoot from 15, we've heard Ed Davis, but he's not good from 15..I know as well as anyone the improbability of trades, but we can dream.



Bench production is definitely a concern, however just because Splitter is in the starting line up doesn't hes banned from playing with the bench unit. By presence I assume you mean offensively? Because Neal spent most of the season ignoring Splitter in the post, actually most of the 2nd unit did. His main contribution was on defense. Splitter has been most effective when teamed up with Tony Parker, Green, Neal and Bonner. Next in line when teamed up with RJ, Parker, Bonner and Green. A mixture of starters and bench players.Yeah, but now you're going off of what is actually working now, which you apparently want to change to something that up to now has not worked this season, in hopes that it will work in the playoffs.

It's confusing.

[TJastal]

Yeah, each of those had a player with a reliable perimeter game.

Uh...

I've never seen Bynum take a jumpshot beyond 5 feet. Perkins has never taken a jumpshot in his lifetime. Tyson Chandler dunks the ball 9/10 times.

You been playing with Daddy's paint cans again?

[ChumpDumper]

Uh...

I've never seen Bynum take a jumpshot beyond 5 feet. Perkins has never taken a jumpshot in his lifetime. Tyson Chandler dunks the ball 9/10 times.

You been playing with Daddy's paint cans again?I'll let you read it again so you can see where you made your mistake.

[TJastal]

The pattern is you wish duncan/splitter fit. The data says they perform poorly together. You have nothing else to add other than comparing splitter and duncan to other teams, stating that have the two tallest guys on the floor at the same time = championships. Wow. Everyone tell Timvp that he wasted a bunch of time looking up the numbers.

OMFG we've seen all of .. what? 30 minutes of Splitter and Duncan together on the court in 2 fucking years?????? Ya, let's use the advanced stats based on that!

:lmao

[TJastal]

I'll let you read it again so you can see where you made your mistake.

You edited that. :p

And last time I checked Timmy has a nice reliable 15-20 footer. Does that not satisfy your requirement?

[Kori Ellis]

We were discussing this argument about Splitter last week, right here.

NSSN.

This guy is just a parasite visiting ST and extracting ideas.

..or he's just someone who posts here.

[ChumpDumper]

You edited that. :pNo, I didn't. You quoted it.


And last time I checked Timmy has a nice reliable 15-20 footer. Does that not satisfy your requirement?I believe it has been proved to be not reliable in the playoffs in one of these stat threads.

[angelbelow]

The pattern is you wish duncan/splitter fit. The data says they perform poorly together. You have nothing else to add other than comparing splitter and duncan to other teams, stating that have the two tallest guys on the floor at the same time = championships. Wow. Everyone tell Timvp that he wasted a bunch of time looking up the numbers.

Lol if you wanna hang on that thread so tightly, Timvp also says he wants Tiago to get more playing time and would like to see the Duncan and Splitter combination.

[ChumpDumper]

We were discussing this argument about Splitter last week, right here.

NSSN.

This guy is just a parasite visiting ST and extracting ideas.I got no problem with someone's putting it all together in a nicely linked blog entry.

[ChumpDumper]

Lol if you wanna hang on that thread so tightly, Timvp also says he wants Tiago to get more playing time and would like to see the Duncan and Splitter combination.Sure. I think we're just wondering how it's supposed to work going forward.

[TJastal]

Sure. I think we're just wondering how it's supposed to work going forward.

Here's how it should work going forward. Pop flips that 100 lb chip off his shoulder and gets down to the business of what is actually going to win playoff games.

[callo1]

Laughable argument. Utter nonsense. I didn't even finish reading the article...it was getting too deep.:sleep

[angelbelow]

I know as well as anyone the improbability of trades, but we can dream.


Yeah, but now you're going off of what is actually working now, which you apparently want to change to something that up to now has not worked this season, in hopes that it will work in the playoffs.

It's confusing.

What I'm saying is that I don't think starting Splitter means hes banned from the bench unit.

I'm not saying that Splitter and Duncan is a perfect solution or a sure-fire home run. I'm just interested in seeing them play more together. And I do realize its easier said then done, given the condensed schedule. But I think that Duncan and Splitter have the potential to be our most effective lineup both offensive and defensive (with Ginobili + Parker) so its worth the extended look.

[jag]

This wouldn't be any good seeing that Duncan is still better in the post than Splitter.

Duncan's post-up FG% this season doesn't agree.

[TD 21]

Big IF imo. I don't consider the trading route a solution to our problems because its too problematic and idealistic to assume one. How many attainable bigs do you think would fit with our team and be able to take 15-20 minutes right away? We've heard Amir Johnson, but he doesn't shoot from 15, we've heard Ed Davis, but he's not good from 15.

You're right, he shoots from 20 . . . occasionally, that is. And he can make it. He's not an elite mid range shooter by any stretch, but he is reliable enough. Davis can make the odd mid range jumper, but he's far from reliable at this point.

I don't know why people are acting as if it's a mystery how Duncan and Splitter would work together. They'd work together the same way Duncan and Robinson used to or the way Gasol and Bynum do. So long as one of the bigs can shoot from mid range, pass and defend power forwards, you can play two centers together.

It's a little more difficult in today's league, because of the amount of mobile, shooting fours, but it's still doable. You can't tell me Splitter doesn't move his feet better than Gasol on defense. If Gasol can consistently defend power forwards, there's no reason Splitter couldn't. That's not to say he wouldn't struggle in certain match-ups, but everyone does. The flip side is, those guys would have to defend him in the lost post and a lot of them wouldn't be able to. If the potential positives outweigh the negatives, you play two centers together. I realize that unless at least one big plays major minutes or unless they can acquire a big who can protect the rim off the bench, they can't do this. But eventually, they have to put them together and let them work out the kinks in advance of the playoffs.

I wouldn't worry about the 2nd unit offense, especially in the playoffs. They'll be so much subbing, mixing and matching and obviously the starters will play more minutes. Even if he started, he'd probably come out 6-7 minutes in and return to play some with the 2nd unit. And if they do end up getting Turiaf as a post deadline buyout, this is what they'll have to do, because playing Turiaf with Bonner for long stretches will lead to them getting bludgeoned on the glass.

[SpurNation]

I've been in agreement with Splitter's limited minutes this year for the EXACT reason presented by the 48MoH article. Now if they can limit Parker's minutes for the rest of the season until playoffs.

[DPG21920]

Why is it inevitable to play duncan/splitter in the playoffs? What makes you think that is going to actually work in practice? Because so far, it does not seem to work.

Specifically, I mean, what do you envision being the post-play strategy on offense with this tandem? Isn't it going to make offense predictable to have duncan away from the basket 3/4 of the game, and splitter camped there?

I think you are looking at this the wrong way. I don't know it will work, but what we do know is that Bonner and Blair in the playoffs do not work. We already know that. The only thing that appears to be unknown is whether or not Tim/Tiago can do well in the playoffs.

I always like to keep things simple so what I am looking at is two things:

1) It's inevitable to play Tim/Tiago in the playoffs because we know, from a large sample size that Bonner/Blair in the playoffs aren't the same players as they are in the regular season. So all the regular season metrics don't apply to those two guys. It's the reason, out of panic, that Pop had to throw Tiago/Tim out there last year and they were woefully unprepared for it.

2) You play your best talent the most majority of the minutes in the playoffs.

There are valid concerns about the spacing with Tiago/Tim, but the fact remains that Tiago is clearly the 2nd best big man on the team and he should be and will need to play more minutes in the playoffs. Whether or not that comes alongside Tim is one thing, but it's hard to imagine it not because Tim will be playing more minutes in the playoffs than this regular season.

You also keep focusing on just offense. There is an entire defensive upside here that is being ignored. The Spurs have yet to prove they can do any real damage in the playoffs with an improved offense when the defense suffers. This Tiago/Tim tandem easily has the potential to be the best defensive unit especially when paired with TP/Manu/Green or Leonard.


Ok, that is fair. But, does the data back that up? Consider that blair/bonner, though both poor defenders, are different than duncan or splitter, in that they are more likely to be effective at defending a quicker, smaller power forward who has a mid-range shot.

Summary of points allowed for each combination of players:

Duncan/splitter
103.87 points allowed per 100 possessions

Duncan/bonner
95.13 points allowed per 100 possessions

splitter/bonner
99.07 points allowed per 100 possessions

duncan/blair
100.74 points allowed per 100 possessions

How is splitter/duncan the best defensive combination? I understand from a COMMON SENSE place, where they are the best individual bigmen defenders, that having them together would result in the best team defensive result. However, that is not happening.

Now, explain why you think more minutes together changes the above. I have given my hypothesis about why: power forwards. response?

Again, if you look at the difference in your numbers in the regular season to post season for Bonner/Blair they tell a dramatically different story and this isn't a small sample we are talking about. Look at Tiago's post season numbers (small sample) last year. It's not an apples to apples argument at this point because of that known factor.

My hypothesis as to why it's not happening now is because they've had so little time together. They are both incredibly skilled & smart so I think with time they would figure it out. I also think that it struggles some because of the inconsistencies in minutes together. If it was the same amount of minutes played together to date, but it divided evenly over the games at similar times, I think you would see some improvement. But with bigs who aren't a perfect fit, when you do things erratically it makes it that much harder especially when going from polar opposites (Tiago playing most minutes with Bonner, then thrust into playing sporadic minutes with Tim).

Time might not solve the issue, but you have to see so you can rule that out because if most of the previous years of playoff shortcomings are an indicator, we know what doesn't work.

I don't know if Tiago/Tim is the best defensive combo, I just know that in the playoffs any combo of Blair/Bonner to date, regardless of who they are paired with is not.

[callo1]

By the way, this is in agreement with Chump, and as a response to the OP he the above is responding to.

Timvp has elucidated the conundrum, although he still agrees (paradoxically) with those wanting splitter to get more minutes with Duncan. Here is the problem, in case you missed the bigman combinations: the Raw Numbers, here is a summary:

Splitter has no mid-range game. If he is going to play with Duncan, duncan gets no touches in the post during their time together, because Splitter's man will just sag off him knowing Splitter is no threat. Counter-point is that Blair also has no mid-range game.

However, the defensive pairing of Blair/Duncan, coupled with Splitter/Bonner, is the best combination of +/-, considering a 4 bigman rotation.

Tjastal (or whatever) has suggested 27 minutes between Duncan/Splitter/Bonner. That is suicide long-term. Plus for a 3 man rotation, you get 32 minutes each. Regardless, that is going to result is a very high minute 3 man rotation, and no team does that. NONE. Why is that? Because your bigmen are going to get hurt playing that many minutes, unless they are 20 years old.

Keep in mind: the most productive pairing is bonner/Splitter. Second is Duncan/bonner, and third is duncan/small ball. Using those combinations the most makes sense.

When you spew your rants regarding Splitter, who I am a huge fan of and who I want to play more, please consider the above, and raise the level of discussion instead of just thrashing around with no contribution to the collective knowledge.

Thanks.


How could Tim and Tiago possibly have developed an ounce of chemistry together when the sample size is beyond sufficient?

So Timmy's increased range this year some how makes it a bad combination?

Tim plays the role of D'Rob and Tiago plays Timmy's old role. With some playing time, that can develop into a wonderful combination. High/low could once again flourish.

Alternatively, Pop can keep making excuses, or have others do it for him, and they never develop a potent combination.

Are we truly going to believe that two gifted passing bigs can't be mutual assets in tandem? Ludicrous. Preposterous. Insane.

[DPG21920]

The pattern is you wish duncan/splitter fit. The data says they perform poorly together. You have nothing else to add other than comparing splitter and duncan to other teams, stating that have the two tallest guys on the floor at the same time = championships. Wow. Everyone tell Timvp that he wasted a bunch of time looking up the numbers.

The data from last year says Tiago/Tim worked well. The data this year conflicts with that. That's the catch 22.

The data consistently shows Bonner & Blair in the playoffs nose dive from their regular season advanced stats.

[Kuestmaster]

..or he's just someone who posts here.

it seems so, he just tweeted that someone said he was a parasite. I usually enjoy his articles, and I'm good if he extracts some ideas from here, there are some quality posters here

[silverblk mystix]

You gotta be fuckin kidding me....

Are you geniuses actually arguing that the TD/Splitter is NOT the spurs best chance?

Here's something really, really simple;

A hall of fame coach starts putting his BEST five players on the court the majority of the minutes of a game....and this hall of fame coach plays the NOT SO GOOD players a lot less minutes of a game....

Then this hall of fame coach gets his ass in gear and coaches these 5 good players to run an offense that works using these 5 best players.

This fuckin' bullshit of DATA says this combo won't work and this DATA says that combo has a higher +/- garbage is just that....garbage.

The hall of fame coach has been gifted a young 7 footer with smarts, quickness, toughness, and a shitload of talent and all this asshole future hall of famer can muster is to play this 7 footer less than Matt Bonner....

and instead of looking at this coach's performance...you morons are looking at DATA that says this team needs to keep playing turds like Bonner and Blair....because the DATA supports this and ......awww fuck it....


you Popsuckers are idiots....Cumdumpster and schtiiikkk....are especially stupid....

[DPG21920]

Also, this is about Blair/Bonner not cutting it and working with what we have. There is no doubt in my mind that if the Spurs brought in someone with the same offensive spacing issues as Blair, but better defensively, the Spurs would be better off and I for one wouldn't be clamoring to play Tiago/Tim together so much.

The offense isn't the problem. It's the defense with Blair starting or Matt in the playoffs. Just get someone who is a better defender to start instead of Blair because the offense can't get much worse than Blair's ability to spread the floor with Tim.

[jag]

As of right now, Duncan operates best out of the PnR and spotting up for the mid-range J. Tiago works best out of the PnR and posting-up. Tiago and Duncan playing together doesn't equate to "Duncan's parking himself on the perimeter and Nealing with it". Both players can run the PnR depending on matchups. Duncan could work from the outside in, while Tiago works the low-post and draws double teams for kickouts to perimeter shooters as well as Duncan.

I almost don't remember what it's like to have two big-men on the floor that can both defend the paint, run the PnR, post-up and do high-low post work. They can certainly play together, but they are going to need more minutes together if they're ever going to build chemistry.

[DesignatedT]

The Spurs need another big man. This is the one thing I continue to gather from all these arguments.

[callo1]

As of right now, Duncan operates best out of the PnR and spotting up for the mid-range J. Tiago works best out of the PnR and posting-up. Tiago and Duncan playing together doesn't equate to "Duncan's parking himself on the perimeter and Nealing with it". Both players can run the PnR depending on matchups. Duncan could work from the outside in, while Tiago works the low-post and draws double teams for kickouts to perimeter shooters as well as Duncan.

I almost don't remember what it's like to have two big-men on the floor that can both defend the paint, run the PnR, post-up and do high-low post work. They can certainly play together, but they are going to need more minutes together if they're ever going to build chemistry.

Well stated. To suggest otherwise is insulting to Tim and Tiago.

[DPG21920]

The Spurs need another big man. This is the one thing I continue to gather from all these arguments.

That, and the fact that for right now since a trade looks exceedingly difficult to come by, you have to work with what you have which is Tiago/Tim.

So unless the Spurs are fairly confident they can trade for or sign a FA big that will replace Blair in the starting line up, not playing Tiago/Tim more minutes together could cause a lot of problems.

[The Truth #6]

If Splitter and Duncan won't get minutes together in the regular season, then Splitter needs to play more (with Bonner) and Tim should get more rest. Tim got low minutes last year and still was nowhere near as good as he was when he started the season. I see no reason not to cut back on a few of Tim's minutes and give them to Tiago. That's the worst alternative.


But as far as those saying the stats don't support playing Tim and Tiago together: what do the stats support? Playing Tim and Bonner? That's a combination that's going to be successful in the playoffs? Stats show Bonner "flips the switch" when the playoffs start, and by flipping the switch, that's to the "off" position.

Anyone using stats now to support not playing Tim and Tiago together is basically saying they should play Tim and Bonner in the playoffs and we know that will be failure. This isn't that complicated. There is no other realistic option. Tim and Tiago have to both play, otherwise the team is just going for the regular season trophy once again.


And besides, in the playoffs the style of play changes. Teams focus on weaknesses. Bonner is fine as a team defender but he's helpless when isolated and that's what teams will do in the playoffs. (In the same regard, teams will force Leonard to make outside jump shots, but that's another discussion.)

Playoffs heavily favor individual play. And Tiago is a better individual player (and he's a fine team player as well.) There aren't enough stats to say Tim and Tiago can't play together in the playoffs.

And, there's no reason Tim can't play the high post. He's doing it already anyway just fine. No one is putting him out to pasture. He's grazing out there on his own.

[TD 21]

The data from last year says Tiago/Tim worked well. The data this year conflicts with that. That's the catch 22.

The data consistently shows Bonner & Blair in the playoffs nose dive from their regular season advanced stats.

I know you're not saying, you're just saying. But I don't give a damn what the data says. The sample size isn't nearly big enough to draw any sort of concrete conclusions.

All this talk about the spacing is nonsense. Duncan's offense was a lot more low post oriented when he played with Mohammed and Oberto -- two very limited shooters -- and the offense worked just fine, efficiency wise. Intelligent players, such as Duncan, Splitter, Ginobili and Parker, will find a way to make it work.

Duncan can basically play the Robinson role on offense, while still being an occasional post up option . . . which is essentially what he does now. And if he's having a turn back the clock game or has an advantageous match-up and they want to relentlessly pound it into him, then in those instances it makes sense to surround him with more shooting.

All the supposed issues ignore the fact that those same issues are prevalent with Blair starting. Only with him, they don't get the quality defense.

[ChumpDumper]

You gotta be fuckin kidding me....

Are you geniuses actually arguing that the TD/Splitter is NOT the spurs best chance?

Here's something really, really simple;

A hall of fame coach starts putting his BEST five players on the court the majority of the minutes of a game....and this hall of fame coach plays the NOT SO GOOD players a lot less minutes of a game....

Then this hall of fame coach gets his ass in gear and coaches these 5 good players to run an offense that works using these 5 best players.

This fuckin' bullshit of DATA says this combo won't work and this DATA says that combo has a higher +/- garbage is just that....garbage.

The hall of fame coach has been gifted a young 7 footer with smarts, quickness, toughness, and a shitload of talent and all this asshole future hall of famer can muster is to play this 7 footer less than Matt Bonner....

and instead of looking at this coach's performance...you morons are looking at DATA that says this team needs to keep playing turds like Bonner and Blair....because the DATA supports this and ......awww fuck it....


you Popsuckers are idiots....Cumdumpster and schtiiikkk....are especially stupid....lol daily meltdown.

[therealtruth]

The only reason Blair/Bonner play is because of the lack of bigs. They're not cracking the rotation on any winning team. Ideally you would have TD and TS start and have a competent big like Dice come of the bench.

[DPG21920]

I know you're not saying, you're just saying. But I don't give a damn what the data says. The sample size isn't nearly big enough to draw any sort of concrete conclusions.

All this talk about the spacing is nonsense. Duncan's offense was a lot more low post oriented when he played with Mohammed and Oberto -- two very limited shooters -- and the offense worked just fine, efficiency wise. Intelligent players, such as Duncan, Splitter, Ginobili and Parker, will find a way to make it work.

Duncan can basically play the Robinson role on offense, while still being an occasional post up option . . . which is essentially what he does now. And if he's having a turn back the clock game or has an advantageous match-up and they want to relentlessly pound it into him, then in those instances it makes sense to surround him with more shooting.

All the supposed issues ignore the fact that those same issues are prevalent with Blair starting. Only with him, they don't get the quality defense.

I agree 100%. I don't even care about the arguments for and against really. The only thing I think is relevant at the moment is this: We have one set of rotations we know for sure (barring a miracle change from what normally happens) does not work in the playoffs. We have another we aren't sure about that while there is some conflicting limited data on how well they perform together, would seem to have upside. Spurs need to figure out with more certainty if that will work.

[SpurNation]

What's the harm in managing player's minutes during the course of this compressed season if the Spurs are still winning AND capitalizing on having less fatigued players when playoffs begin?

[DPG21920]

What's the harm in managing player's minutes during the course of this compressed season if the Spurs are still winning AND capitalizing on having less fatigued players when playoffs begin?

SN, I don't think the limiting of the minutes is the huge issue considering how amazing the Spurs are in doing so while still winning in the regular season. The harm is in not giving certain players enough time together when knowing down the road they will likely have to play together when it counts.

[ChumpDumper]

Didn't they play together better in the playoffs without playing together in the regular season?

[jjktkk]

Also, this is about Blair/Bonner not cutting it and working with what we have.

Pop knows Blair and Bonner don't cut it. But he still has to figure out a way to use them, especially Blair, not to mention Pop monitoring Tim's minutes, and apparantly Splitter's as well.


There is no doubt in my mind that if the Spurs brought in someone with the same offensive spacing issues as Blair, but better defensively, the Spurs would be better off and I for one wouldn't be clamoring to play Tiago/Tim together so much.

Totally agree.


The offense isn't the problem. It's the defense with Blair starting or Matt in the playoffs. Just get someone who is a better defender to start instead of Blair because the offense can't get much worse than Blair's ability to spread the floor with Tim.

Like many have mentioned this season, the Spurs are one bigman away from truly contending.

[ChumpDumper]

Really, from all the stats listed, we should keep Splitter and Duncan apart as much as possible during the regular season and use Bonner as much as possible, then in the playoffs use Bonner as little as possible while playing Splitter and Bonner together as much as possible.

[SpurNation]

The harm is in not giving certain players enough time together when knowing down the road they will likely have to play together when it counts.

I think that is more of a "anticipated" fear than actual occurrence when the time comes.

[MaNu4Tres]

I know you're not saying, you're just saying. But I don't give a damn what the data says. The sample size isn't nearly big enough to draw any sort of concrete conclusions.

All this talk about the spacing is nonsense. Duncan's offense was a lot more low post oriented when he played with Mohammed and Oberto -- two very limited shooters -- and the offense worked just fine, efficiency wise. Intelligent players, such as Duncan, Splitter, Ginobili and Parker, will find a way to make it work.

Duncan can basically play the Robinson role on offense, while still being an occasional post up option . . . which is essentially what he is now. And if he's having a turn back the clock game or has an advantageous match-up and they want to relentlessly pound it into him, then in those instances it makes sense to surround him with more shooting.

All the supposed issues ignore the fact that those same issues are prevalent with Blair starting. Only with him, they don't get the quality defense.

Great post :tu

Agree with everything here.


IMO-- There's two reasons why Splitter isn't seeing as many minutes as he should be getting and it doesn't have to do with him being " injury prone". IMO

(IMO)The first reason why Splitter isn't getting significant minutes right now is because Pop doesn't want to lose a big man in the rotation. Being thin at the position, Pop knows the Spurs can't afford to lose Blair from a spiritual and mental standpoint. To explain, if Pop ships 10-12 minutes of Blair's to Tiago, (which all of us are crying for; including myself), then Pop will inevitably lose Blair because of the fragile make-up of his mentality. This became apparent to me many times before when his minutes have decreased in the past and the relatively recent game in New Orleans clarified my opinion of his mental make-up. If anyone has NBA League Pass Broadband or has the game on DVR please go re-watch the closing minutes and watch Blair's actions at the end of the game whenever Tim and Tiago closed it out (from start of mid-way of 4th til whenever the players congratulate each other at the end). Blair just has a selfish and ego driven mindset (IMO). All in all, Pop knows Spurs can't afford to lose him from a spiritual and mental standpoint.

The second reason is because of the market/trading value of Blair needs to be as high as it possibly can going into the trading deadline. If Pop were to limit Blair to only 10-15 minutes (like he should be doing), Blair's market value drops-- which hurts the Spurs chances at potentially getting better via trade once March rolls around.

[SpurNation]

Really, from all the stats listed, we should keep Splitter and Duncan apart as much as possible during the regular season and use Bonner as much as possible, then in the playoffs use Bonner as little as possible while playing Splitter and Bonner together as much as possible.
I think we have a winner.

[DPG21920]

:lol SN

[jjktkk]

Also, this is about Blair/Bonner not cutting it and working with what we have. There is no doubt in my mind that if the Spurs brought in someone with the same offensive spacing issues as Blair, but better defensively, the Spurs would be better off and I for one wouldn't be clamoring to play Tiago/Tim together so much.

The offense isn't the problem. It's the defense with Blair starting or Matt in the playoffs. Just get someone who is a better defender to start instead of Blair because the offense can't get much worse than Blair's ability to spread the floor with Tim.


Great post :tu

Agree with everything here.


IMO-- There's two reasons why Splitter isn't seeing as many minutes as he should be getting and it doesn't have to do with him being " injury prone". IMO

(IMO)The first reason why Splitter isn't getting significant minutes right now is because Pop doesn't want to lose a big man in the rotation. Being thin at the position, Pop knows the Spurs can't afford to lose Blair from a spiritual and mental standpoint. To explain, if Pop ships 10-12 minutes of Blair's to Tiago, (which all of us are crying for; including myself), then Pop will inevitably lose Blair because of the fragile make-up of his mentality. This became apparent to me many times before when his minutes have decreased in the past and the relatively recent game in New Orleans clarified my opinion of his mental make-up. If anyone has NBA League Pass Broadband or has the game on DVR please go re-watch the closing minutes and watch Blair's actions at the end of the game whenever Tim and Tiago closed it out (from start of mid-way of 4th til whenever the players congratulate each other at the end). Blair just has a selfish and ego driven mindset (IMO). All in all, Pop knows Spurs can't afford to lose him from a spiritual and mental standpoint.

The second reason is because of the market/trading value of Blair needs to be as high as it possibly can going into the trading deadline. If Pop were to limit Blair to only 10-15 minutes (like he should be doing), Blair's market value drops-- which hurts the Spurs chances at potentially getting better via trade once March rolls around.

Great post.

[therealtruth]

The Spurs need another big man. This is the one thing I continue to gather from all these arguments.

Pop himself has said the only reason he plays Bonner/Blair is because those are the only big men he has. Then the front office went off and did nothing.

[therealtruth]

That, and the fact that for right now since a trade looks exceedingly difficult to come by, you have to work with what you have which is Tiago/Tim.

So unless the Spurs are fairly confident they can trade for or sign a FA big that will replace Blair in the starting line up, not playing Tiago/Tim more minutes together could cause a lot of problems.

They don't need a starting quality. Though it might be nice to have it's probably unrealistic. They just need a big that can allow Tiago to start with Tim and to prevent Bonner/Blair combinations.

[therealtruth]

Great post :tu

Agree with everything here.


IMO-- There's two reasons why Splitter isn't seeing as many minutes as he should be getting and it doesn't have to do with him being " injury prone". IMO

(IMO)The first reason why Splitter isn't getting significant minutes right now is because Pop doesn't want to lose a big man in the rotation. Being thin at the position, Pop knows the Spurs can't afford to lose Blair from a spiritual and mental standpoint. To explain, if Pop ships 10-12 minutes of Blair's to Tiago, (which all of us are crying for; including myself), then Pop will inevitably lose Blair because of the fragile make-up of his mentality. This became apparent to me many times before when his minutes have decreased in the past and the relatively recent game in New Orleans clarified my opinion of his mental make-up. If anyone has NBA League Pass Broadband or has the game on DVR please go re-watch the closing minutes and watch Blair's actions at the end of the game whenever Tim and Tiago closed it out (from start of mid-way of 4th til whenever the players congratulate each other at the end). Blair just has a selfish and ego driven mindset (IMO). All in all, Pop knows Spurs can't afford to lose him from a spiritual and mental standpoint.

The second reason is because of the market/trading value of Blair needs to be as high as it possibly can going into the trading deadline. If Pop were to limit Blair to only 10-15 minutes (like he should be doing), Blair's market value drops-- which hurts the Spurs chances at potentially getting better via trade once March rolls around.

That's the same kind of reasoning that prevented Pop from giving Tiago minutes last season. He didn't want to hurt anyone's feelings. It doesn't matter if you're setting yourself up to lose in the playoffs. It would be better to know now if Blair can be a professional than to have him sulk in the playoffs. Blair's got to check his ego at the door and Pop needs to do what's best for the team.

[CGD]

Interesting theory, which I think has some truth to it. To test it, we should track whether Tiago's minutes increase in months leading up to the playoffs.

The reality is that teams have their workhorses for the regular season and their finishers for the playoffs -- each important in there own right. It makes sense for the Blairs of the world hold the fort down during the regular and slowly make way for the Splitters as the seasons progresses.

[Russ]

This is an obvious bump . . .

[timvp]

Tbh, I'm not sure this Splitter injuries proves anything either way. He got injured in his first minute after having his minutes limited all season ... it's not like his body fell apart after Pop started playing him big minutes. One could argue that Splitter's legs would be stronger if he was accustomed to playing a lot of minutes and maybe wouldn't suffer a calf strain.

But yeah, Pop will probably really limit Splitter's minutes going forward since he'll have "proof" . . .

[DesignatedT]

It's startin to look like he is "injury prone". That doesn't mean he shouldn't play though, just that he is fragile and will unlikely make it through a full 82 game season every year. Manu is also "injury prone", as well as many other good players in the league.

[Russ]

It's startin to look like he is "injury prone".

Splitter "looks" about as injury prone as a Sherman tank.

But you're right, it is what it is.

The Spurs need both Splitter and Manu to have any hope post-season.

So we'll just have to hope.:flag:

[Cane]

Splitter is injury prone but IIRC its mostly just minor nagging stuff.

And with Splitter's game predicated on sacrificing himself on both ends of the court in the paint, its not that much of a surprise, even without looking at his international history.:depressed

[MaNu4Tres]

It's startin to look like he is "injury prone". That doesn't mean he shouldn't play though, just that he is fragile and will unlikely make it through a full 82 game season every year. Manu is also "injury prone", as well as many other good players in the league.

Injury prone or not, you can't coach based on the probability or likely-hood of an injury. You coach to win ball games in June! Period!

Of course managing players minutes and all that has something to do with the long-run of the team's overall health--which is important for success. But so does building familiarity with your teams best two post players. That is something Pop has failed to do the past 2 years with Splitter and Duncan. I don't think anyone expects Pop to play Splitter 35 minutes a night in the regular season, but what we do expect is for Pop to take initiative in getting his two best big men acclimated with one another-- by playing them together more. And with the way this roster is constructed, playing them together more means he needs to increase Tiago's minutes from 21 mpg to at least 26-28 mpg because of Bonner and Blair's roles with the team.

All in all, when shit gets real (late April-May), Pop can't afford to play on the safe side and limit Splitter's minutes (because of the probability of an injury) and Pop can't be content with 21 minutes for Tiago because it's what "worked" in the regular season (when teams didn't have 1-2 weeks to prepare for the Spurs). That significant dose of the Bonner/Blair ship has sailed. Pop needs to do whatever he can to give Splitter and Duncan more run together whenever Splitter gets back, which should build more cohesive chemistry between the two on both ends. This Splitter/Duncan predicament is going to be critical for the Spurs overall success this year.

[Blackjack]

Granted, I haven't been able to watch the Spurs at all this year.

But, agree with it or not, I don't think it's hard to see what Pop's rationale is:

Tim and Tiago are both centers, they don't compliment each other offensively, and he doesn't see the upgrade defensively as bein enough to overcome the offense.

Seems to me Pop's been perpetually scarred by '08: the defense was sound, the offense wasn't quite good enough.

I don't believe he feels the Spurs can play the type of D it takes to play the grind-it-out game of yesteryear. It's the only thing that makes sense to me. It has to be his rationale - even if it's terrible rationale.

I'll take my chances with the Spurs' best players, and that includes Tiago.

But Pop ain't savin Tiago from himself. He may be tryin to save Blair from his, maybe jack up his trade-value, but I don't believe he feels Tim and Tiago can co-exist the way we all hope or think he can. I don't believe he feels the Spurs can beat the best of the best in the halfcourt playin Tim and Tiago like Tim and Dave - different time, different players.

No bueno.

[ElNono]

Injury prone or not, you can't coach based on the probability or likely-hood of an injury.

This. Never seen a coach like Phil Jackson do something like that either (including micromanaging minutes). Injuries are just part of the game. Can happen at any time. Luckily, there's no season ending injury in this case. You just move on.

[TD 21]

Granted, I haven't been able to watch the Spurs at all this year.

But, agree with it or not, I don't think it's hard to see what Pop's rationale is:

Tim and Tiago are both centers, they don't compliment each other offensively, and he doesn't see the upgrade defensively as bein enough to overcome the offense.

Seems to me Pop's been perpetually scarred by '08: the defense was sound, the offense wasn't quite good enough.

I don't believe he feels the Spurs can play the type of D it takes to play the grind-it-out game of yesteryear. It's the only thing that makes sense to me. It has to be his rationale - even if it's terrible rationale.

I'll take my chances with the Spurs' best players, and that includes Tiago.

But Pop ain't savin Tiago from himself. He may be tryin to save Blair from his, maybe jack up his trade-value, but I don't believe he feels Tim and Tiago can co-exist the way we all hope or think he can. I don't believe he feels the Spurs can beat the best of the best in the halfcourt playin Tim and Tiago like Tim and Dave - different time, different players.

No bueno.

If he's drawn this conclusion from such a small sample size, then he really is an idiot. They don't compliment each other any worse offensively than Duncan and Robinson did or Gasol and Bynum do. Suffice it to say, both those duos proved to be slightly effective. Two centers can co-exist together if one can defend power forwards, shoot from mid range and pass. Between Duncan and Splitter, they've got all three covered (if Gasol and Nowitzki can consistently defend fours, then Splitter can too), so there's no excuse. And by the off chance is won't work, they've at least got to exhaust that option before prematurely drawing a conclusion. There's no other team in the league that plays their fourth best player barely over 20 mpg and rarely plays it with one of their three best players. It's insanity.

timvp, Pop can't overreact and baby Splitter upon his return, because he's even more concerned with babying Duncan. And after a few weeks where Duncan inevitably plays in excess of 30 mpg, Splitter probably won't even be eased back in to the extent a player usually is on this team.

[Fireball]

this article definitely was a jinx

[therealtruth]

This. Never seen a coach like Phil Jackson do something like that either (including micromanaging minutes). Injuries are just part of the game. Can happen at any time. Luckily, there's no season ending injury in this case. You just move on.

Exactly. Jackson never micromanaged minutes and never really had a problem with injuries. You just play the players and make sure you have sufficient depth if an injury does comes up. Pippen was injured for the first half of '98 but Kukoc stepped up, Pippen came back from injury, and they won the title.

[therealtruth]

Injury prone or not, you can't coach based on the probability or likely-hood of an injury. You coach to win ball games in June! Period!

Of course managing players minutes and all that has something to do with the long-run of the team's overall health--which is important for success. But so does building familiarity with your teams best two post players. That is something Pop has failed to do the past 2 years with Splitter and Duncan. I don't think anyone expects Pop to play Splitter 35 minutes a night in the regular season, but what we do expect is for Pop to take initiative in getting his two best big men acclimated with one another-- by playing them together more. And with the way this roster is constructed, playing them together more means he needs to increase Tiago's minutes from 21 mpg to at least 26-28 mpg because of Bonner and Blair's roles with the team.

All in all, when shit gets real (late April-May), Pop can't afford to play on the safe side and limit Splitter's minutes (because of the probability of an injury) and Pop can't be content with 21 minutes for Tiago because it's what "worked" in the regular season (when teams didn't have 1-2 weeks to prepare for the Spurs). That significant dose of the Bonner/Blair ship has sailed. Pop needs to do whatever he can to give Splitter and Duncan more run together whenever Splitter gets back, which should build more cohesive chemistry between the two on both ends. This Splitter/Duncan predicament is going to be critical for the Spurs overall success this year.

When's the last time the Spurs won a championship since Pop started micromanaging minutes. Pop believes in it but there's no proof it works. That's what we were saying last season. These guys are getting plenty of rest so they will be able to turn it on in the playoffs. You don't turn it on. It has to be on from the start.

[TJastal]

When's the last time the Spurs won a championship since Pop started micromanaging minutes. Pop believes in it but there's no proof it works. That's what we were saying last season. These guys are getting plenty of rest so they will be able to turn it on in the playoffs. You don't turn it on. It has to be on from the start.

It's a good idea in theory. And it would work if applied correctly.

I just think Pop goes way too overboard with the "micromanaging" aspect to the point where guys are getting injured because they're oftentimes stiff or cold from either too much rest on the bench or having their minutes bounce up and down from game to game like a yo-yo.

[Wild Cobra Kai]

Some guys can't play big minutes, Manu being one of them. They just break down.

Splitter may be another in that mold.

[Russ]

I just think Pop goes way too overboard with the "micromanaging" aspect to the point where guys are getting injured because they're oftentimes stiff or cold from either too much rest on the bench or having their minutes bounce up and down from game to game like a yo-yo.

I had the same thought after the early playoff exit last year when Pop complained that late season inuries caused the Spurs to lose their rhythm. Actually, both Tim and Manu were injured right after sitting out games at the end of the year that they normally would have played in . . .


Pop decided that having the team playing at the top of their game wasn't as important as the team resting and staying healthy. Ironically, the plan produced just the opposite result. Keeping players out of games completely toward the end of the season (rather than just limiting minutes) may have backfired.

Both Tim's ankle injury and Manu's arm injury came the first game back after sitting out, and not even dressing for, a game. Maybe that's just coincidence, but it also may be that keeping older players loose and in rhythm (even for only 10-12 minutes/game) is better than sitting them out completely and then bringing them back cold and "out of rhythm."

Not only did both of Tim's and Manu's injuries came in the first game back, they also occured in the first couple of minutes of the return game after sitting the game before.

Perhaps because the players weren't in "rhythm" after sitting out games? Injuries usually don't happen to players who are loose and warmed up, but rather to those who are cold and rusty. And when do those injuries usually happen? Right when the overly-rested player first returns to action after the layoff. . . .

Pop is a great coach, the best the Spurs ever had by a long shot, but this year it looks like he violated many of his own protocols regarding staying hungry and aggressive. Instead, he tried to finesse it going into the war that is the playoffs.

The result? The injuries didn't case a lack of rhythm as Pop implies. Rather, the willingness to abandon that rhythm likely caused the injuries in the first place. And an all too early end to the season. Such irony.


http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=5198689#post5198689

Some baseball observers claim that pitchers actually get more arm injuries now than they did when no one worried about pitch counts or innings limits. Why? Because a lot of work may actually help prevent injuries (or so the theory goes).

Anyway, it seems that Pop is not sitting out players for entire games as much this year. And Duncan seems to be hanging in there pretty well.