ArtAngel
02-15-2012, 10:57 AM
http://youtu.be/C-OEFrLYgwE
A couple months ago the concept of a brokered convention was laughable. Only rank amateurs thought the 2012 Republican presidential race would come down to a food fight in Florida.
Things sure have changed after South Carolina.
When I was down there reporting on the primary, I noticed the complete absence of any evidence Mitt Romney was even running. I never met a single Romney supporter in five days knocking around the state. I didn't see a Romney lawn sign till late on Election Day, even though I drove hundreds of miles around the state.
And then Mitt got trounced by Newt. Subsequent trouncings by Rick Santorum led us to the point where even the pros are talking about a brokered convention.
Over at Politickernj.com, Alan Steinberg assesses the prospects:
I am not yet ready to predict a brokered convention, but as frontrunner Mitt Romney continues to struggle to garner a majority of delegates in the early primaries and caucuses, the likelihood of a brokered convention increases. Let me go one step further: If Mitt Romney loses the GOP primary in his native state of Michigan on February 28 to Rick Santorum, his candidacy is finished, and a brokered convention is a certainty.
Steinberg goes on to write:
If Santorum wins Michigan, causing the political demise of Romney, the various center-right and moderate GOP governors will focus on stopping him. Unfortunately for them, they have no center-right alternative candidate. Their best possibilities – Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, Jeb Bush, and Mike Huckabee – have already unequivocally stated that they will not accept a draft. Therefore, the center-right and moderate governors will form favorite son movements to prevent Santorum from winning delegates in their respective states.
As I noted in one of my pieces from South Carolina, Ron Paul anticipated the favorite-son strategy and is running as a sort of favorite son of the young and liberty-oriented voters.
Assuming that scenario plays out, the vote could be split eight or nine ways.
All sorts of coalitions could emerge. And in that event, Ron Paul could have one of the largest voting blocs.
By the way, this is why it is so stupid of those blow-dried talking heads to keep asking Paul if he will run as a third-party candidate.
In other words, he's amassing all these delegates purely for the sake of throwing them away.
Now that's amateurish.
As for the professional view, all I can say is: It sure is fun to imagine the possibilities if Romney continues his slide.
A couple months ago the concept of a brokered convention was laughable. Only rank amateurs thought the 2012 Republican presidential race would come down to a food fight in Florida.
Things sure have changed after South Carolina.
When I was down there reporting on the primary, I noticed the complete absence of any evidence Mitt Romney was even running. I never met a single Romney supporter in five days knocking around the state. I didn't see a Romney lawn sign till late on Election Day, even though I drove hundreds of miles around the state.
And then Mitt got trounced by Newt. Subsequent trouncings by Rick Santorum led us to the point where even the pros are talking about a brokered convention.
Over at Politickernj.com, Alan Steinberg assesses the prospects:
I am not yet ready to predict a brokered convention, but as frontrunner Mitt Romney continues to struggle to garner a majority of delegates in the early primaries and caucuses, the likelihood of a brokered convention increases. Let me go one step further: If Mitt Romney loses the GOP primary in his native state of Michigan on February 28 to Rick Santorum, his candidacy is finished, and a brokered convention is a certainty.
Steinberg goes on to write:
If Santorum wins Michigan, causing the political demise of Romney, the various center-right and moderate GOP governors will focus on stopping him. Unfortunately for them, they have no center-right alternative candidate. Their best possibilities – Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, Jeb Bush, and Mike Huckabee – have already unequivocally stated that they will not accept a draft. Therefore, the center-right and moderate governors will form favorite son movements to prevent Santorum from winning delegates in their respective states.
As I noted in one of my pieces from South Carolina, Ron Paul anticipated the favorite-son strategy and is running as a sort of favorite son of the young and liberty-oriented voters.
Assuming that scenario plays out, the vote could be split eight or nine ways.
All sorts of coalitions could emerge. And in that event, Ron Paul could have one of the largest voting blocs.
By the way, this is why it is so stupid of those blow-dried talking heads to keep asking Paul if he will run as a third-party candidate.
In other words, he's amassing all these delegates purely for the sake of throwing them away.
Now that's amateurish.
As for the professional view, all I can say is: It sure is fun to imagine the possibilities if Romney continues his slide.