What do we expect from Manu come playoff time?

[jARS mEsH sEt]

Realistically, what are your expectations for Manu come playoff time? Is he going to return to the 20/5/5 all star caliber player that we're used to, or should we expect less?

Does he handle the ball in crunch time or does Tony get the ball now that he's proven he can handle clutch minutes?

If you had to guess, what do you think Manu's avearge line will be at the end of playoff series round 1 (win or lose). Ex. 11 PPG @ 40%, 3 AST, 3 REB, 20 MPG

Points, assists, rebounds, and FG%. What are your expectations?

[Robz4000]

It'll all depend. Is this string of injuries just coincidence? Or is his body beginning to give out? If the former, I can see him generating ~18/5/5 and still being energetic. If the latter it might be more realistic to expect 10/4/3 or less. As for crunch time, it'll depend on whose been playing better; both Tony and Manu can be depended on.

[TMTTRIO]

Honestly I don't expect much out of Manu once he comes back. Even if he finally gets healthy I can't see his confidence being very high. Even he said that this is Tony's team now so I see Tony handling a lot more of the clutch time situations from now on (of course Manu may still do the little plays like a flop or a steal). I think he should come off the bench from now on and play really limited minutes.

[spectator]

i don't think that his body is breaking down like silly putty. he was playing amazing bb at the beginning of the season, when he insisted that he was not in great shape.

i think that he'll be amazing manu, as long as he is healthy. we only need him 100% healthy for the play-offs. let's hope that's not too much to ask.

[ElNono]

Not worried about Manu, tbh... the question is what can we expect off everyone else...

[roycrikside]

He just needs to play six or seven straight games without injury, two weeks basically, to get his stamina back and two or three good games to get his confidence back.

The trickier part will be developing a rhythm and chemistry with his teammates, and Pop and Tony will be involved in ingratiating him into that. From what I saw the last three games, neither was very accommodating in that regard, as Manu was hardly touching the ball or getting many plays called for him, though I don't know how much of that was by his own request.

What Ginobili will need to regain confidence and the confidence of his teammates is to do well in those stretches where Parker is on the bench (even then Neal has kinda been hogging the ball in those situations).

Really, if Pop rested Tony for a couple of games or if Tony suffered some kind of minor injury, like a small ankle sprain or something where he had to sit out a couple games, that would probably help Manu the most. He plays his best when he feels he has to and then gains confidence from those performances.

[ElNono]

It seems like we have 2007 Tony again, TBH he's the only guy not to worry about.

Well, he ain't gonna be seeing Booby Gibson this year. I just hope he doesn't disappear for a game or two like last year. Although, to be frank, I'm not really concerned about the big 3. It's the surrounding cast that has to remain playing at a high level.

[ElNono]

Manu isn't going to forget how to play basketball after missing 25 or so games... he just needs to get back in shape, and you do that by playing... I'll be concerned about Manu if he gets some kind of injury after the All Star game... then it becomes a problem, because you do run out of time...

[Solid D]

I suspect Manu will have some form of injury. Only God knows for sure. Hopefully, he won't be debilitated. I would hope that before then, Manu can get in some some suicide drills or other conditioning work...plus get his muscle memory and confidence back.

[LoneStarState'sPride]

Manu will be fine--I'm worried about the rest (outside of the big 3).

[Bambililos]

Will he play? At this point, I'm worried. When was his last healthy playoff run?

[Barfunk]

He just needs to play six or seven straight games without injury, two weeks basically, to get his stamina back and two or three good games to get his confidence back.

In a nutshell, this. He needs sufficient touches in those games as well. We need Manu to be THAT clutch star 2 guard we all know and love come playoff time because I don't think Tony going crazy by himself every night is going to cut it, playoff wise of course. He needs to be ready to play anywhere from 30-40 mpg in the playoffs and be the 1st or 2nd scoring option, probably the 2nd, since Parker has re-emerged.

[Barfunk]

Will he play? At this point, I'm worried. When was his last healthy playoff run?

It's no coincidence that Manu's last 100% healthy postseason was the 2007 Championship run. He's sat out or played injured in every playoffs since then.

2008 - Ankle (Injured during the 1st round against the Suns, and played through it, but required offseason surgery.)

2009 - Ankle (Missed 1st round against Mavs, think he had surgery...)

2010 - Broken nose (Injured against Mavs, threw off everything IMO. Supposedly needs surgery still...)

2011 - Broken arm (He played the last 5 games against the Grizzlies in the 1st round, but it's a broken arm lol.)

2012 - We can only hope that none of his current or new injuries surface during this year's run.

That's 5 straight years of injuries and 4 straight in the postseason. :wow Lol, PRAY....

[acoelho1]

I expect toughness and leadership when Manu comes back. He was playing very solid prior to the injury and I expect more of the same when he is back in game shape.

[jag]

Not worried about Manu, tbh... the question is what can we expect off everyone else...

What about his bones/muscles/body in general?

[jgome21]

Honestly, I'm not really expecting much from his this season. We're playing well right now without having him all season, and if he try to rush him back the last week of the season then I think it'll be a mistake. If Manu wants to chance in the rotation come playoff time, I think he's going to have to play at least 2-3 weeks IMO. The bench is playing so well right now that it's not worth forcing something.

[timvp]

The chances of Manu not being healthy for the entire playoff run are probably above 50%. Heck, might be above 70%.

But if the Spurs are going to do anything, they need Manu healthy. So basically the Spurs just have to hope they get a bit lucky and that Manu can have a healthy string of games.

If he's healthy, I have no doubts that Manu will be a huge asset. Per-minute, he's shown no reason why he can't be a top two or three shooting guard in the NBA. Even a "rusty" Manu is a player good enough to make a difference in a playoff series.

It all depends on health . . .

[ElNono]

What about his bones/muscles/body in general?

What about them?

[Brazil]

If healthy (I know it's a big IF) but if healthy I agree with nono he is not going to forget how to play ball. Spurs have 0 chance without him anyway so lets pray for the best.


http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_eyZj3LrNbFY/S_wU4HCqA4I/AAAAAAAAApA/n8duDyvqFek/s200/boy-dog-praying2.gif (http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_eyZj3LrNbFY/S_wU4HCqA4I/AAAAAAAAApA/n8duDyvqFek/s1600/boy-dog-praying2.gif)

[hater]

It's not about forgetting how to play. Basketball is 90% confidence.

If Manu's confidence is not there, doesn't matter if he's healthy or not. BTW, chances are he will not be healthy. Just look at the historical data.

That is why I support to trade Manu now, before it's not too late in the season.

[hater]

It's not about forgetting how to play. Basketball is 90% confidence.

If Manu's confidence is not there, doesn't matter if he's healthy or not. BTW, chances are he will not be healthy. Just look at the historical data.

That is why I support to trade Manu now, before it's not too late in the season.

[ElNono]

The other thing to consider is that this is a shortened season. On paper he missed 22 games, but that would probably translate to 12, maybe 14 at worst on a non-compressed season. It's bad, because this is the season we have. But time-wise he didn't miss THAT much time that he's going to forget how to play with everyone else.

[ElNono]

That is why I support to trade Manu now, before it's not too late in the season.

This is what makes no sense. He's got diminished value now. It's probably the worst time for the Spurs to try to trade him.

Plus everybody knows he's not going anywhere.

[Brazil]

Im not worried about Manu's confidence he usually needs 3 or 4 games after an injury to regain confidence. Confidence is not for me an issue at all.
Forget to play with everyone else ? :lol

[GSH]

It pisses me off that Manu won't take a summer off to get healthy. There's no way to prove it, but I don't think he would have had as many injuries if he had allowed some time for his body to recover. (Before anyone jumps in - you can't prove the other way, either.) The human body needs time to recover, and no matter what anyone says Manu is still just human.

That being said, in last year's playoffs, Manu averaged 20.6 PTS, 4.0 RB, and 4.2 AST in 34.9 minutes. In the previous year's playoffs he averaged 19.4 PTS, 3.7 RB, and 6.0 AST in 35.2 minutes. Oh, and he also averaged 2.6 steals per game both years (incredible) . Plus 6.7 and 8.2 FTA per game, respectively. If that's what he plays like injured, give me 2 or 3 more just like him, injuries and all.

The point is, we've never seen anything from Manu to indicate that he won't bring it in the post-season, regardless of whether he is 100% or not. If he's at 70% health, he'll be performing at 80% in the playoffs. And if he somehow manages to be at 100% physically, he'll be performing at 110%. It still pisses me off that he won't rest in the offseason, to have a better chance at being 100% physically. But that has nothing to do with what we get from him.

[Fireball]

What do I expect? That he will not be healthy but still plays with more heart and toughness than most Spurs players ... don't know if this would help the teams this season

[Proxy]

I expect him to get enough confidence and in shape by the playoffs... it'll be Tony leading the offense out the gate. When the defense adjusts, Manu will step up.

Make no mistake about it, this team does nothing in the playoffs without him. We all know how dangerous of a team the Spurs are when they're 100%.

[bus driver]

i expect him to have ice in his veins come play off time.

[timvp]

If Manu's confidence is not there, doesn't matter if he's healthy or not.

:jack

Manu couldn't have had any confidence last year after breaking his arm right before the playoffs ... and he was still fine.

If healthy, Manu will be damn good.

[ElNono]

It pisses me off that Manu won't take a summer off to get healthy.

He did, the summer prior to last one.

There's just nothing you can do to prevent an hyperextended elbow, a broken nose, or even that last fracture. I suppose he could pull an RJ and sleepwalk out there, and I'm sure he would've been much less injured. Then again, that wouldn't be Manu.

[jestersmash]

I posted this in another thread (about Splitter's lack of playing time in lieu of Matt Bonner last playoff season against Memphis) -

Matt Bonner's been given significant playoff time during the previous 3 playoffs. I know most people aren't the biggest fans of PER on these boards, but as very, very rough estimate of overall impact, I think PER can be a passable stat in a pinch.

Playoff PER

Matt Bonner
2008-2009: 3.3
2009-2010: 8.6
2010-2011: 11.8 (playing 20.5 MPG for a total of 6 games and 123 minutes during the Memphis series)

Tiago Splitter
2010-2011: 21.1 (playing 16.7 MPG for a total of 3 games and 50 minutes during the Memphis series)

Note: The league average PER is 15.0

:stirpot:


By the way, here are playoff PER stats for the Big 3 for anyone interested -

Tony Parker
2001-2002: 16.4
2002-2003: 11.9
2003-2004: 18.9
2004-2005: 12.0
2005-2006: 17.5
2006-2007: 18.7 <--- Finals MVP
2007-2008: 19.9
2008-2009: 29.3
2009-2010: 16.7
2010-2011: 17.6
Average = 16.6

Manu Ginobili
2002-2003: 15.0
2003-2004: 22.2
2004-2005: 24.8 <-- Duncan Finals MVP (Duncan PER = 24.9)
2005-2006: 21.5
2006-2007: 21.9 <-- Parker Finals MVP (Parker PER = 18.7)
2007-2008: 17.1
2008-2009: DNP
2009-2010: 21.4
2010-2011: 22.3
Average = 20.6

Tim Duncan
1997-1998: 20.4
1998-1999: 25.1 <-- Finals MVP
2000-2001: 25.4
2001-2002: 31.8
2002-2003: 28.4 <-- Finals MVP
2003-2004: 24.1
2004-2005: 24.9 <-- Finals MVP
2005-2006: 30.4
2006-2007: 27.4 <-- Parker Finals MVP (Parker PER = 18.7)
2007-2008: 21.9
2008-2009: 27.3
2009-2010: 19.7
2010-2011: 15.5
Average = 25.4

:stirpot:

================================

A 20.6 average PER is pretty elite. Usually, a PER of around 21 is good enough to rank you among the top 20 players in the league (in the 15-20 range). Manu's been pretty consistent with a playoff PER of around 20 (save for his very first season here which is understandable and '07-'08 where it dipped a bit).

And Tim Duncan's numbers are just gaudy, especially up through our '07 championship.

Edit: Note, the PER stats are for the entire playoffs. Finding "Finals PER stats" would've been better when comparing Finals MVP candidates, but I'm too lazy to do that and the comparisons were made in jest anyway so I didn't bother :lol

[hater]

:jack

Manu couldn't have had any confidence last year after breaking his arm right before the playoffs ... and he was still fine.

thanks for agreeing with me


If healthy, Manu will be damn good.

that's a huge IF

[gameFACE]

Not sure what to expect. He can contribute at several levels of health. But he has to be in the game. This latest injury is the most cause for concern. From last years Suns game to the recent Clippers that's 17 games, including playoffs and preseason, and he's been hurt three times. With plenty of time in between each injury, too. I'm not sure if that's a total fluke or if his age is caught up to his style of play.

The young guys are playing great but no Manu in the playoffs means no championship. And with the way they have been playing recently, especially the key defense at times, I'm starting to believe thay have a real shot.

[Borosai]

This year will be different. Manu will be healthy. Matty will forcefully spread his ass cheeks and shit on everyone. Duncan will turn back the clock. Neal's game winners won't be wasted. The Spurs will get stops when they need them.

Championship!

[stéphane]

It's all about health as it's been mentionned.

Anyone who questions Manu's talent or ability to play smart ball (even now that he's aging a bit) never saw him play.

He's a unique talent who can change the outcome of the game even if his shot is off.

[GSH]

He did, the summer prior to last one.

There's just nothing you can do to prevent an hyperextended elbow, a broken nose, or even that last fracture. I suppose he could pull an RJ and sleepwalk out there, and I'm sure he would've been much less injured. Then again, that wouldn't be Manu.


Ahhh... I know all that. That's why I posted his playoff numbers. I still wish he'd leave the summer ball to younger guys. And just about every study on workplace injuries suggest that fatigue is a big factor - even the "unavoidable" injuries tend to happen a lot more often to people who are over-extended. Hard to prove on any individual incident, but over time it's pretty hard to ignore.

But you're right - he wouldn't be Manu if he did things differently. I'm not one of the all-or-nothing guys here. The point of all those numbers is that even an injured Manu is better than many, if not most players in the league. I'd rather have him rested, but I'll take him any way we can get him.

[kaji157]

I expect Ginobili to have a great postseason given the ammount of rest he has had.
I am thinking something around 22-4-6.