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View Full Version : A Look Back: Player Pairs from 2007



timvp
02-20-2012, 11:57 AM
When I posted this season's player pairs (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=191529), DBMethos asked to see an example of a championship team's player pairs. So here it is.

Point Differential Per 100 Possessions
http://oi40.tinypic.com/24v3z8n.jpg



Points Scored Per 100 Possessions
http://oi40.tinypic.com/165es4.jpg




Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions
http://oi40.tinypic.com/2i945r5.jpg




Observations:

-Tim Duncan was still a superstar in 2007. He missed a green clean sweep by only one. (Ironically, Duncan+Bonner offense is a huge strength nowadays.) While his per-minute numbers haven't fallen too far since 2007, it's obvious that his impact is much less these days -- especially offensively.

-Manu Ginobili grades out extremely strong in these numbers. His only two reds cells have obvious explanation: Elson set poor screens and could never catch his passes on offense, while being paired with Barry stretched his defensive capabilities too far. In 2007, Ginobili came off the bench and, as you can see, obliterated his competition on a nightly basis.

-Tony Parker has a smattering of red but other than the defense when he was paired with Finley, he was really, really close to keeping up the level of play at all times. For the high standards set by a superstar Duncan and Ginobili destroying bench players, Parker's numbers are about as good as could be expected.

-Damn, I miss Bruce Bowen :cry. Look at those beautiful defensive numbers. The most impressive aspect is probably how he turned Barry into a capable defender. Barry couldn't stop anyone when paired with Finley or Ginobili but was really good next to Bowen. It's kinda cool how these numbers show Bowen's worth ... while more traditional NBA stats make Bowen look like a scrub.

-Speaking of scrubs, I still don't understand what Pop saw in Michael Finley. I knew he was bad at defense at the time ... but I didn't know he was that bad.

-Brent Barry was a useful offensive role player player. He made scoring easier for the Big 3 than any player on the team. (Tip of the hat to whottt.) His numbers then were similar to the numbers posted by Bonner and Neal these days.

-Everyone remembers Robert Horry's big shots but his true value was on the defensive end. If you put him next to a shot blocker, he was a stud defender.

-Fabricio Oberto was signed for his defense, however it turned out to be his offense that made him a worthwhile player.

-Francisco Elson being pretty damn bad is not a surprise. He had his useful spots but was very limited.

-It's pretty surprising that Matt Bonner didn't have instant chemistry with Duncan. It was actually Ginobili that brought the best out of him at the time. Oh, and I guess Bonner wasn't always the king of plus/minus.

-Jacque Vaughn's great season is mostly forgotten these days but the guy was a bulldog defender. When paired with another ace defender, opponents could barely score (that number with Bowen on the court is disgusting.) Offensively, I attribute his strong numbers to Duncan and Ginobili being more than able to carry the offense. While even then it wasn't wise to run Duncan and Ginobili into the ground, on a per-possessions basis, they could put points on the board with anyone in the league.

-Beno Udrih somehow managed to make each member of the Big 3 significantly worse. It's not a surprise that he was let go by the following season.



Comparing to this season, the thing that the Spurs of today are missing is defensive role players. Back in 2007, putting Bowen, Horry and Vaughn around the Big 3 made the Spurs one of the best defensive teams in the league. Today, nearly all the role players are primarily successful due to their offense. Specifically, it's a shame that the current Spurs don't have a defensive role playing big who could be counted on to help shut the other team down.

Like I've said previously, at some point Pop and the front office decided that the Big 3 wasn't capable of carrying the team offensively by themselves (if you want to pinpoint a moment, it appears to have come at the end of the 2008 season). Thus, more emphasis on offensive role players has been witnessed lately. Was Pop and the front office right? Quite possibly ... but personally I wouldn't have been upset trying to win championships with a proven formula.

And, being honest, the Duncan of today just doesn't impact the game like he did back in 2007. It's not for a lack of effort or anything -- time just gets the best of everybody eventually.

stéphane
02-20-2012, 12:16 PM
Talk about validating the data of the other thread.
Nice work there.
That's even stating the obvious at times.
Bowen is god, Finley... not so much.
timvp, have you really forgotten that much about Finley stint?

Snow
02-20-2012, 12:35 PM
If only we had a stretch 4 with Horry's D and Bonner's O... :drool:

GSH
02-20-2012, 01:02 PM
If you keep this up, you're going to use up your mojo. What will you do for an encore next year?

I think there are some anomalies on the charts. The Points Differential Per 100 score for Duncan/Vaughn (+25.77). The Points Scored Per 100 score for Horry/Bonner (127.27). And the Points Allowed Per 100 score for Bowen/Vaughn (83.15). I think those are so far out of the norm that they are probably less about the pairing than the situations.

The easiest one to look at is probably Bowen/Vaughn. I don't know how much time Vaughn actually spent on the floor with Bowen, but he (Vaughn) only played 760 minutes that season and I would guess that his time with Bowen was limited, except when he was in the starting lineup. JV started a couple of games along side Bowen in March, and the Spurs held the Rockets and Clippers to 74 points each. If they really didn't play that many total minutes together, a few games like that will really throw the numbers off.

They started together in a meaningless loss at the end of the season, and the Spurs gave up 100 points. But Bowen only played 3:39 in that game.

I'm not debating that Vaughn played some good defense. But I don't think that having him on the floor with Bowen made the team that much more of a defensive juggernaut. I'm pretty sure that number has more to do with the situations when they played together, and Bruce in general. When two players get a lot of minutes together, they will be under a lot of different circumstances. But if they get limited minutes together, and those mostly when the game well in hand, it's going to skew the pairing numbers.

Awesome charts. If there are some outliers, it's just the way the minutes fell. But comparing things like JV's and Beno's numbers are really revealing. And, yeah, looking at Bruce's numbers, and Tim's numbers in his prime, almost make me sad. We'll likely never see anything like it again.

DBMethos
02-20-2012, 01:27 PM
Very nice, Timvp. Thanks for doing this! :toast

It is amazing to look at Bruce's contributions in this way...I only hope that Kawhi can develop into half the defender that Bowen was (and I think he can). Only problem is, he won't have prime/near-prime Duncan backing him up. :(

Bonner's come a long way! :lol

Oh, and Finley still sucks donkey balls. Look no further than his points allowed chart...red across the board.

ElNono
02-20-2012, 01:39 PM
At first sight, the big 3 that season were Duncan-Manu-Bowen.... :stirpot:

ElNono
02-20-2012, 01:40 PM
Oh, and thanks for putting that together... :tu

Kuestmaster
02-20-2012, 02:00 PM
I miss Bowen and the prime Duncan so much :depressed

therealtruth
02-20-2012, 03:11 PM
Pop pretty much put Finley in the starting lineup to hide his deficiencies. All they really needed since '07 was good fourth scorer in the frontcourt that could defend and rebound. I am sure any combination of role players that could defend could have picked up the rest of the scoring slack. It seems they shifted too much towards offense and are now just trying to come back. They need to replace the worst defenders on the team. There's no need to tolerate somebody's lack of defensive ability unless they can get you 20 points per game.

Cant_Be_Faded
02-20-2012, 03:42 PM
I still remember p throwing Vaughn out towards the end of some games and the team would scratch and to victory. Three decision not to sign a defensive big was stupid this last off season.

spursfaninla
02-20-2012, 05:08 PM
I was wondering about this very question! We had a very strong team back then. Interesting to see the impact of Bowen. It is amazing that these numbers actually show how much he helped.

Man Mountain
02-20-2012, 06:33 PM
The Spurs shouldn't have traded rasho for BONNER

pgardn
02-20-2012, 06:35 PM
It is interesting but might be more useful for looking at roles.

The most beautiful number only occurs in the playoffs:

W

Also like 4th quarter stats with 3 min to go in close games. The cream rises when it matters.

timvp
02-20-2012, 06:37 PM
The most beautiful number only occurs in the playoffs:

W

Sig worthy.

pgardn
02-20-2012, 06:59 PM
Sig worthy.

For people who have played organized basketball it becomes very apparent who you trust when it really matters. What stinks is when the coach cant see when a player is trying to hide offensively or always seems to run into picks or asks to change men on defense.

The same hierarchical roles come clean at high levels of skill and athleticism as well, especially on poorly coached teams. When talented players find a way to get lost or do something really stupid when it matters... those moments are very revealing.

The Truth #6
02-21-2012, 12:36 AM
Great work in putting this together.

Timvp, not to ask you to do more work, but I'm curious if in your research you noticed anything interesting with Bowen's last season. The coaching staff and many fans believed that he was "done". I'm curious if the statistics agree with that...or was he actually still playing well his last year? Just curious...

angelbelow
02-21-2012, 12:49 AM
Duncan and Oberto worked out so beautifully. A closer look at Oberto that year:

58% of his shots came from close shots and 42% came from jumpshots. His jumpshot eFG% was a lowly 38.7% in the regular season. While the situation isn't identical to now, Duncan and Splitter could still be worth a look. (But its also important to keep in mind that Oberto is not an offense threat and was no where near the key when Duncan would ISO.)