FuzzyLumpkins
02-25-2012, 03:22 AM
FOR the moment, Henrique Capriles has reason to be confident. The governor of Miranda state is the front-runner in the Democratic Unity (MUD) coalition’s primary, due on February 12th. According to Datanálisis, a pollster, he leads Pablo Pérez, his closest rival, by 62% to 16%, though the margin of error is high and turnout could have a big effect on the results.
Assuming Mr Capriles (pictured) wins, however, he will not get such an easy run from his next rival, Hugo Chávez, seeking a third six-year term as Venezuela’s president. Mr Chávez underwent surgery for cancer last June. But he says he is “cured” and has already nominated himself as the candidate of his United Socialist Party (PSUV). “I wish him a long life,” Mr Capriles said recently, “because I want him to see the changes in Venezuela with his own eyes.”
In 2006, the previous time Mr Chávez ran for re-election, the opposition was in disarray. Its bevy of anti-Chávez parties was still tainted by association with a coup attempt in 2002. They could agree on little save their distaste for the government, and had unwisely boycotted the 2005 legislative elections, leaving them with no lawmakers. Moreover, the opposition parties were dominated by media, business and trade-union leaders and by pressure groups, rather than by politicians. They chose their presidential candidate, Manuel Rosales, via back-room consensus instead of a primary. Mr Chávez trounced him.
They have learned from their mistakes. In 2008 a dozen opposition parties formed the MUD, an alliance modelled on the Concertación coalition that ousted Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship in Chile. Two years later they fielded a joint slate of legislative candidates, which narrowly won the popular vote and took 67 of 165 congressional seats in mid-term elections. The forthcoming MUD primary is open to all Venezuelans registered to vote. “There’s a new generation of leaders,” says Alonso Moleiro, a political analyst. “They are totally committed to the electoral road to power, and to co-existing with chavismo.”
By publishing a detailed platform, the MUD has also insulated itself from the charge that it stands only for removing Mr Chávez. Its plan aims to reverse the president’s blurring of the distinctions between the executive, the PSUV and the state as a whole. It would restore the central bank’s autonomy; relieve the state oil company, PDVSA, of its role as a welfare agency; abolish the president’s personal militia; move control of social-welfare schemes to the ministries; and put the army at the service of the state instead of Mr Chávez’s “socialist revolution”. However, it takes a gradualist approach to restoring confiscated property, undoing currency controls and abolishing unconstitutional laws.
Five of the six of the original primary contenders supported the platform. The two early front-runners were Mr Pérez, the governor of Zulia state, and Mr Capriles. Although both have won the support of parties with diverse ideologies, Mr Pérez is broadly seen as representing the centre-left and Mr Capriles the centre-right.
Mr Pérez says his social-democratic views will appeal to disgruntled former chavistas. His darker skin may help persuade them that he is a man of the people. But despite a wealthy background, Mr Capriles has also run as a moderate, focusing on education and social issues. And he has implicitly accused Mr Pérez, who is backed by the two dominant parties of the pre-Chávez era, of representing the machine politics that alienated voters and made Mr Chávez’s rise possible. Mr Capriles all but secured the nomination when the third-placed Leopoldo López withdrew from the race last month to run his campaign.
Mr Capriles has reason to be optimistic about his chances in the October general election. At 39, he has already been a mayor, a governor and the vice-president of congress. And Mr Chávez has never looked so weak, politically or physically. Venezuela has South America’s highest rates of both inflation and murder. Basic goods and housing are scarce. His illness will probably hinder his campaign, undermining his image of invincibility.
Yet the challenger will still face an uphill battle. Mr Capriles cannot match the charisma of Mr Chávez, who remains Venezuela’s most popular politician. The president has freely spent public money in past campaigns, and has packed the electoral authority with supporters, letting him flout campaign rules and perhaps even tweak the result. “If you don’t have witnesses [at polling stations],” Mr Capriles warns, “you can be absolutely sure your votes will be stolen.” Mr Capriles has just a few days left before the hard part begins.
http://www.economist.com/node/21547296
Assuming Mr Capriles (pictured) wins, however, he will not get such an easy run from his next rival, Hugo Chávez, seeking a third six-year term as Venezuela’s president. Mr Chávez underwent surgery for cancer last June. But he says he is “cured” and has already nominated himself as the candidate of his United Socialist Party (PSUV). “I wish him a long life,” Mr Capriles said recently, “because I want him to see the changes in Venezuela with his own eyes.”
In 2006, the previous time Mr Chávez ran for re-election, the opposition was in disarray. Its bevy of anti-Chávez parties was still tainted by association with a coup attempt in 2002. They could agree on little save their distaste for the government, and had unwisely boycotted the 2005 legislative elections, leaving them with no lawmakers. Moreover, the opposition parties were dominated by media, business and trade-union leaders and by pressure groups, rather than by politicians. They chose their presidential candidate, Manuel Rosales, via back-room consensus instead of a primary. Mr Chávez trounced him.
They have learned from their mistakes. In 2008 a dozen opposition parties formed the MUD, an alliance modelled on the Concertación coalition that ousted Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship in Chile. Two years later they fielded a joint slate of legislative candidates, which narrowly won the popular vote and took 67 of 165 congressional seats in mid-term elections. The forthcoming MUD primary is open to all Venezuelans registered to vote. “There’s a new generation of leaders,” says Alonso Moleiro, a political analyst. “They are totally committed to the electoral road to power, and to co-existing with chavismo.”
By publishing a detailed platform, the MUD has also insulated itself from the charge that it stands only for removing Mr Chávez. Its plan aims to reverse the president’s blurring of the distinctions between the executive, the PSUV and the state as a whole. It would restore the central bank’s autonomy; relieve the state oil company, PDVSA, of its role as a welfare agency; abolish the president’s personal militia; move control of social-welfare schemes to the ministries; and put the army at the service of the state instead of Mr Chávez’s “socialist revolution”. However, it takes a gradualist approach to restoring confiscated property, undoing currency controls and abolishing unconstitutional laws.
Five of the six of the original primary contenders supported the platform. The two early front-runners were Mr Pérez, the governor of Zulia state, and Mr Capriles. Although both have won the support of parties with diverse ideologies, Mr Pérez is broadly seen as representing the centre-left and Mr Capriles the centre-right.
Mr Pérez says his social-democratic views will appeal to disgruntled former chavistas. His darker skin may help persuade them that he is a man of the people. But despite a wealthy background, Mr Capriles has also run as a moderate, focusing on education and social issues. And he has implicitly accused Mr Pérez, who is backed by the two dominant parties of the pre-Chávez era, of representing the machine politics that alienated voters and made Mr Chávez’s rise possible. Mr Capriles all but secured the nomination when the third-placed Leopoldo López withdrew from the race last month to run his campaign.
Mr Capriles has reason to be optimistic about his chances in the October general election. At 39, he has already been a mayor, a governor and the vice-president of congress. And Mr Chávez has never looked so weak, politically or physically. Venezuela has South America’s highest rates of both inflation and murder. Basic goods and housing are scarce. His illness will probably hinder his campaign, undermining his image of invincibility.
Yet the challenger will still face an uphill battle. Mr Capriles cannot match the charisma of Mr Chávez, who remains Venezuela’s most popular politician. The president has freely spent public money in past campaigns, and has packed the electoral authority with supporters, letting him flout campaign rules and perhaps even tweak the result. “If you don’t have witnesses [at polling stations],” Mr Capriles warns, “you can be absolutely sure your votes will be stolen.” Mr Capriles has just a few days left before the hard part begins.
http://www.economist.com/node/21547296