Why any Republican will beat Obama

[spursncowboys]

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/it-s-obamacare-stupid_633414.html

[spursncowboys]

The authors looked at cap and trade, the economic “stimulus,” and Obamacare, and concluded that the latter had by far the most adverse effect on Democrats’ fortunes—voters were “approximately 5 points less likely to vote for an incumbent who supported health reform than one who opposed it.”

[spursncowboys]

voters not only oppose Obamacare as policy but view it as a symbol of a commitment to big-government liberalism.

[ChumpDumper]

Do you post this to reassure yourself?

[spursncowboys]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[ChumpDumper]

Did you post that to reassure yourself?

[Cry Havoc]

:lmao

[George Gervin's Afro]

Isn't Obama always getting his ass kicked in Rasmussen polls? And in everyone else's he ahead?

[fraga]

http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/259/093/8af.jpg

[TheProfessor]

Isn't Obama always getting his ass kicked in Rasmussen polls? And in everyone else's he ahead?
Pretty much: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Rassmussen is known for doing conservative commentary in addition to their polling.

I prefer Pew and Gallup myself.

[Jacob1983]

Obama will win in November. He is going to serve Bush's 4th term.

[Proxy]

Obama will win in November. He is going to serve Bush's 4th term.

:rolleyes

[spursncowboys]

It is a great point that Romney getting the nomination would neutralize the Obamacare debate and in that case not only give Obama a pass but also make sure that if the SCOTUS doesn't find it unconstitutional, then it will probably be something we have to learn to live with. That is until it bankrupts us.

[RandomGuy]

It is a great point that Romney getting the nomination would neutralize the Obamacare debate and in that case not only give Obama a pass but also make sure that if the SCOTUS doesn't find it unconstitutional, then it will probably be something we have to learn to live with. That is until it bankrupts us.

You do know the "Obamacare" bill actually lowered the health care costs to the US government, right?

You do know who pays for the uninsured when they can't pay their medical bills?

(hint, it rhymes with "blue do")

Care to guess what the leading cause of personal bankruptcy is?

(hint, it rhymes with "shmedical hills")

[spursncowboys]

You do know the "Obamacare" bill actually lowered the health care costs to the US government, right?

You do know who pays for the uninsured when they can't pay their medical bills?

(hint, it rhymes with "blue do")

Care to guess what the leading cause of personal bankruptcy is?

(hint, it rhymes with "shmedical hills")

:lol I love your smuggness in your inaccuracy. In the future I wouldn't go by Obama's number crunchers.

[spursncowboys]

would love a link of this mythical 2 trillion in ten years, from only six of the ten actually having implemented obamacare.
None of this factors in the military who will move to this to save money from tricare.

[spursncowboys]

During his presentation to Wisconsin officials in August 2011, Gruber revealed that while about 57 percent of those who get their insurance through the individual market will benefit in one way or another from the law’s subsides, an even larger majority of the individual market will end up paying drastically more overall.

“After the application of tax subsidies, 59 percent of the individual market will experience an average premium increase of 31 percent,” Gruber reported.



Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/02/11/obamacare-architect-expect-steep-increase-in-health-care-premiums/#ixzz1oqhU1uWy -Johhnathon Gruber, Co creator of Romneycare and Obamacare.

[ElNono]

Romney has a shot... he can easily move closer to the center. I don't think any of the others do. JMO.

[spursncowboys]

It's about getting people in the swing districts to come out. Romney can't do that. It might be mccain all over again.

[ElNono]

It's about getting people in the swing districts to come out. Romney can't do that. It might be mccain all over again.

Nah... it's about capturing the independent vote... Romney is a guy that can talk more than just gay marriage, abortion, contraceptives, iran, etc.

[boutons_deux]

I repeat:

A few weeks before the 2008 election, Rasmussen had McLiar and pitbull bitch winning in a landslide.

It is apparent that the non-stop lies the Repugs have been repeating about ACA have swayed a lot of ignorant, lazy, facts-dont-matter Human-Americans.

[spursncowboys]

Yall said the same thing about mccain

[ElNono]

Yall said the same thing about mccain

McCain was DOA because he was following Jr... Palin actually did get some people excited, but it faded, and the independent vote never materialized. That's why Barry won by an ample margin. Neither team can win with just their base votes... the center normally decides the election...

[spursncowboys]

karl rove's idea of exciting the core I think works better now a days than trying to move towards the middle. With places like the T in Pennsylvania and Southern Ohio there is going to be a better turn out for conservatives than getting the small amount of real independents.

[ElNono]

karl rove's idea of exciting the core I think works better now a days than trying to move towards the middle. With places like the T in Pennsylvania and Southern Ohio there is going to be a better turn out for conservatives than getting the small amount of real independents.

The "base" is basically a little less of what voted for McCain (I'm sure some independents cast a vote for him too, despite he was carrying dubya's cross). Just not nearly enough to get a guy elected.

[spursncowboys]

No the base didn't show up for mccain.

[ElNono]

No the base didn't show up for mccain.

sure it did. he doesn't win 22 states otherwise. just not enough. Dems have the same problem. that's why all candidates move to the center one way or another after the primaries. you can't win without that vote.

[EVAY]

McCain was DOA because he was following Jr... Palin actually did get some people excited, but it faded, and the independent vote never materialized. That's why Barry won by an ample margin. Neither team can win with just their base votes... the center normally decides the election...

This is totally accurate, and I wonder why it seems to be such a mystery to so many people.

I agree that the only person who has a realistic chance against Obama is Romney, for all the reasons you stated. The others have just gone too far right to come back. Plus, I don't think they really want to come back...they are some real believers, I think.

I think it is Romney vs. Obama.

And I don't know who will win, but I think it is gonna get really dirty...dirtier than ever...and it is the independents who will decide the election.

[spursncowboys]

You have to win in states like Ohio or Penn.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/oh.htm
The graph showed that pretty much the same amount of Ohioans voted for Kerry and Obama but there was a -300000 votes from bush in 04 to mccain in 08. These voters are there but are not the kind of voters who want to pick between a giant douche and a turd sandwich. I'm not saying Romney is that but he might be.

[spursncowboys]

Most people who say Romney is the only candidate to compete with Obama did and probably will vote for *obama again.

[ElNono]

You have to win in states like Ohio or Penn.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/oh.htm
The graph showed that pretty much the same amount of Ohioans voted for Kerry and Obama but there was a -300000 votes from bush in 04 to mccain in 08. These voters are there but are not the kind of voters who want to pick between a giant douche and a turd sandwich. I'm not saying Romney is that but he might be.

That's part of the independents. The base shows up and votes. That's why they're called the base.

[boutons_deux]

independents aren't swing voters, that's a myth

An independent (party-unregistered} who votes Dem/Repug almost always votes the same party.

[spursncowboys]

So ElNono, are you saying that the independents showed up for Bush but not for McCain?

[ElNono]

So ElNono, are you saying that the independents showed up for Bush but not for McCain?

Sure. Frankly, it isn't McCain fault. The TARP happened a month earlier and the economy was already in the shitter. Congress was as apathetic as usual.

tbh, whoever wins the nomination needs to start talking about jobs, getting the economy on track, what they propose to fix healthcare if they plan to do away with Obamacare, etc. They're going to be talking to all America, not just their base.

[spursncowboys]

Great point Elnono.

[Jacob1983]

Bush won because he had more money, more connections, better organization, had Darth Vader as his VP, and was lucky to not have all the votes counted in Florida.
McCain lost because Obama was hip and cool.

[Goran Dragic]

McCain lost because Obama was hip and cool.
And because he picked Sarah Palin as his VP

[Jacob1983]

Yep, that too. LOL

[RandomGuy]

This is totally accurate, and I wonder why it seems to be such a mystery to so many people.

I agree that the only person who has a realistic chance against Obama is Romney, for all the reasons you stated. The others have just gone too far right to come back. Plus, I don't think they really want to come back...they are some real believers, I think.

I think it is Romney vs. Obama.

And I don't know who will win, but I think it is gonna get really dirty...dirtier than ever...and it is the independents who will decide the election.

The long GOP primary battle will give the Obama campaign more than enough fodder to torpedo the eventual nominee as being too far to the right.

The stupid shit being said has further pissed off and galvanized the liberals I know, including myself. We are rather flabberghasted by the things being said during this primary campaign to pander to the extreme right.

It will get dirty.

In the end, I think the independents will go for Obama again. My gut says he will win by a comfortable margin, but less than what he got for his first term.

[RandomGuy]

Bush won because he had more money, more connections, better organization, had Darth Vader as his VP, and was lucky to not have all the votes counted in Florida.
McCain lost because Obama was hip and cool.

McCain lost because he was following GW Bush. That would have been enough to sink him, but then he went and showed the poor judgment to pick Palin as his running mate, AND Obama was black.

Obama's historic candidacy brought out a LOT of new voters, as you pointed out, but it was not the deciding factor ultimately. All it did was further pad his win.

[RandomGuy]

karl rove's idea of exciting the core I think works better now a days than trying to move towards the middle. With places like the T in Pennsylvania and Southern Ohio there is going to be a better turn out for conservatives than getting the small amount of real independents.

"small amount"

Imagine a three person panel chosen to decide things.

A has 49 votes.
B has 49 votes.
C has 2 votes.

C, in this case, has a "small amount" of votes.

Given that A and B almost always vote opposite each other, who makes the decisions in this microcosm?

As a Democrat, I hope your thinking, i.e. "we will win if we just go far enough to the right to make our base happy and excited", represents that of Republicans in general.

I hope you collectively keep thinking that for a long time to come.

[Wild Cobra]

I repeat:

A few weeks before the 2008 election, Rasmussen had McLiar and pitbull bitch winning in a landslide.

It is apparent that the non-stop lies the Repugs have been repeating about ACA have swayed a lot of ignorant, lazy, facts-dont-matter Human-Americans.
Do you recall the unethical tactics used for the October Surprises by liberals?

I don't, but they were there.

[clambake]

Do you recall the unethical tactics used for the October Surprises by liberals?

I don't, but they were there.

wut?

[Winehole23]

"what I can't recall but remain nonetheless certain of, should receive your confidence too."

variant of "everyone knows what I mean". perh. related to "no red-blooded American disagrees"

[101A]

Bush won because he had more money, more connections, better organization, had Darth Vader as his VP, and was lucky to not have all the votes counted in Florida.
McCain lost because Obama was hip and cool.

Bush won reelection, despite being an unpopular president, because his opponent was John Kerry.

Obama will win, despite being an unpopular president, because his opponent will be Mitt Romney.

Not rocket science. Weak (esp from Massachusetts) candidates (See Dukakis, Michael) = Election losses

[RandomGuy]

Bush won reelection, despite being an unpopular president, because his opponent was John Kerry.

Obama will win, despite being an unpopular president, because his opponent will be Mitt Romney.

Not rocket science. Weak (esp from Massachusetts) candidates (See Dukakis, Michael) = Election losses

Hey man! long time, no read.

How are things in the frozen north?

[101A]

Hey man! long time, no read.

How are things in the frozen north?

65 Degrees today; not so frozen this year; in fact NO snow days, or even delays. Again, BIG TIME fan of global warming.

Also, I've been around; just somewhat inconsistent.

[JoeChalupa]

Obama has been the underdog from the beginning and I have consistently stated that it will be very tough for him to win re-election. It won't be easy that is for sure.

[DarrinS]

Bush won reelection, despite being an unpopular president, because his opponent was John Kerry.

Obama will win, despite being an unpopular president, because his opponent will be Mitt Romney.

Not rocket science. Weak (esp from Massachusetts) candidates (See Dukakis, Michael) = Election losses



Spot on

[DarrinS]

Obama has been the underdog from the beginning and I have consistently stated that it will be very tough for him to win re-election. It won't be easy that is for sure.


He SHOULD be an underdog. Unfortunately, the GOP has no better alternatives.

[ChumpDumper]

Do you recall the unethical tactics used for the October Surprises by liberals?

I don't, but they were there.:lmao

[DMC]

Obama will not lose this election. The GOP is just spinning wheels.

[Nbadan]

Not looking like the GOP will take the Senate either at this point...

[ElNono]

Bush won reelection, despite being an unpopular president, because his opponent was John Kerry.

Obama will win, despite being an unpopular president, because his opponent will be Mitt Romney.

Not rocket science. Weak (esp from Massachusetts) candidates (See Dukakis, Michael) = Election losses

I'll agree only partially with this... I thought Bush won because he ran the "don't change commanders mid-stream" and "let me finish this" themes with regards to the wars. Add Kerry being labeled a flip-flopper during a time where allegedly there was no room for indecision, and you have a fairly good reason for people to vote the way they did.

I also think Romney is much more easy to digest to the center and even some disenchanted left voters. If (and this is not small if) he can get the base on the right all together behind him, I can see him challenging Barry.

[Nbadan]

Yeah, I'm not seeing the enthusiasm from wing-nut voters that I am seeing from Obama supporters...the vast majority of Democrats support Obama...without motivating a large segment of its base and also attracting independent voters the GOP has no chance...if they continue this war on women they may lose seats in both houses...

[RandomGuy]

Poll: Obama leads all GOP candidates in head-to-head contests


http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/poll-obama-leads-gop-candidates-head-head-contests-151032764.html


Obama's approval rating rises to 50 percent

Romney's national lead widening among Republican primary voters

Americans think Obama will win a second term

A majority of Americans have an unfavorable view of the Republican candidates after a long primary

Voters don't know that Santorum is Catholic

Republicans struggling with women and minorities

Nation split over federal health care overhaul

[RandomGuy]

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/it-s-obamacare-stupid_633414.html

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=57&pictureid=1665

Stock market tops 13,000.

If this keeps going, it will become harder and harder to make the "look how bad the economy is" argument.

[TeyshaBlue]

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=57&pictureid=1665

Stock market tops 13,000.

If this keeps going, it will become harder and harder to make the "look how bad the economy is" argument.

I don't think the stock market has ever been more disconnected to the economic health of the average American than it is today.

Stock market metrics are almost irrelevant.

[TeyshaBlue]

Srsly. Who gives a fuck if OmniWidgets is up 200pts when they are reporting overseas profits and using a foreign labor force?

[RandomGuy]

Srsly. Who gives a fuck if OmniWidgets is up 200pts when they are reporting overseas profits and using a foreign labor force?

I do think the market is a fair indicator about where the economy will be in a few months. A rule of thumb or rough guide if you will.

I do not think it is the end-all, be-all of indicators about the economy.

Omniwidgets though, will not be a DJIA component, if it is mostly overseas.

All that said, I just liked the picture. It's funny. "Crikey"... (chuckles)

[RandomGuy]

Stock market metrics are almost irrelevant.

Tell that to the people on the cusp of retirement who have had to delay their plans by several years becuase of the financial crisis.

I personally know of three, and from what I read in the personal finance sections, they are not alone in that situation.

Once these people withdraw from the labor force, that will shrink the labor pool, and provide some force towards pushing wages a bit higher.

"almost irrelevant" I don't buy.

"a component, but not the end-all, be all" Seems better. :toast

[TeyshaBlue]

I do think the market is a fair indicator about where the economy will be in a few months. A rule of thumb or rough guide if you will.

I do not think it is the end-all, be-all of indicators about the economy.

Omniwidgets though, will not be a DJIA component, if it is mostly overseas.

All that said, I just liked the picture. It's funny. "Crikey"... (chuckles)

I remember Coca Cola posting a surge in stock prices a few years ago. It was largely on the back of foreign sales by foreign subsidaries. It does make it back to the bottom line...and it didn't add one fucking job.

I think the market is not as fair an indicator as it once was simply due to our shift from manufacturing to service and soft industries.

[TeyshaBlue]

Tell that to the people on the cusp of retirement who have had to delay their plans by several years becuase of the financial crisis.

I personally know of three, and from what I read in the personal finance sections, they are not alone in that situation.

Once these people withdraw from the labor force, that will shrink the labor pool, and provide some force towards pushing wages a bit higher.

"almost irrelevant" I don't buy.

"a component, but not the end-all, be all" Seems better. :toast

It certainly seems all but irrelevant with our unemployment as a backdrop. I could be overstating tho. I'm so very subtle.:lol

[TeyshaBlue]

:toastThat was a great pic, tho.

[RandomGuy]

I remember Coca Cola posting a surge in stock prices a few years ago. It was largely on the back of foreign sales by foreign subsidaries. It does make it back to the bottom line...and it didn't add one fucking job.

I think the market is not as fair an indicator as it once was simply due to our shift from manufacturing to service and soft industries.

It does add jobs in the U.S. actually, generally at the corporate headquarters level.

Further, the earnings are generally passed on to the pension funds and retirees that own Coke stock for the dividends.

[RandomGuy]

It certainly seems all but irrelevant with our unemployment as a backdrop. I could be overstating tho. I'm so very subtle.:lol

Again, a higher stock market allows for baby boomers to retire.

Out with the old, in with the new. No offense CC. :)

It could very well lower the unemployment rate for that reason.

Think about the number of people where you work that are due to retire within 5 years.

I dunno, it would be interesting to quantify.

[Wild Cobra]

Stock market tops 13,000.

If this keeps going, it will become harder and harder to make the "look how bad the economy is" argument.
I think few would agree with you, unless it rebounds to the point of following the long term trend. Without referring to past performance, I will guess that the market would have to top 20,000 to be on trend.

[Wild Cobra]

I don't think the stock market has ever been more disconnected to the economic health of the average American than it is today.

Stock market metrics are almost irrelevant.
Yes, I agree here.

[Winehole23]

(http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=5700431#post5700431)
I don't think the stock market has ever been more disconnected to the economic health of the average American than it is today.

Stock market metrics are almost irrelevant.









Yes, I agree here.


I think few would agree with you, unless it rebounds to the point of following the long term trend. Without referring to past performance, I will guess that the market would have to top 20,000 to be on trend.



The more bailouts, taxes, etc the democrats propose and Obama signs into law, the worse things will get. My 6,000 prediction may be a bit high!http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3159585&postcount=2

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=4248385

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=3570317

[Wild Cobra]

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3159585&postcount=2

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=4248385

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=3570317
Your point?

Would you agree that economics has an effect on the stock market, but that doesn't necessarily mean the stock market has an effect on economics?

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Your point?

Would you agree that economics has an effect on the stock market, but that doesn't necessarily mean the stock market has an effect on economics?

You suck at economics but hes pointing out how you argue both ways depending on where your advocate stands.

What do sophist mean?

[MannyIsGod]

Bookmarking this.

[CosmicCowboy]

Never underestimate the stupidity of the average american voter.

[CosmicCowboy]

I don't care if the stock market is at 15,000, if gas is still over $4 a gallon in November the average voter is going to be seriously pissed off.

[CosmicCowboy]

Not that the market will be at 15,000. My gut feeling is that we are due for a 10-20% correction soon.

[Wild Cobra]

Not that the market will be at 15,000. My gut feeling is that we are due for a 10-20% correction soon.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit since there is little reason for the market to be as high as it is.

[MannyIsGod]

:lol

Financials expert too.

[spursncowboys]

I don't care if the stock market is at 15,000, if gas is still over $4 a gallon in November the average voter is going to be seriously pissed off.

Not to mention food has gone up in price.