Starting lineup and playoff rotation

[Darkwaters]

I know this has been discussed in various other threads on the side, but I wanted to discuss two specific topics: the starting lineup going forward and the playoff rotation.

Starting Lineup

Tim Duncan and Tony Parker are obviously in the lineup. The real discussion centers around the two swingman slots and the other post slot. We'll discuss the two swingman slots first:

In discussing the swingman slots there are five players that may deserve consideration there: Manu Ginobili, Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Jackson, Gary Neal and Danny Green. My assessment is that this list really needs to center only on Ginobili, Leonard and Jackson. Neal will likely be retained as a bench player since his first responsibility is as backup PG and Danny Green will probably be the odd man looking in at the rotation (discussed later). So of those three remaining players I see three combinations:

Manu Ginobili/Stephen Jackson
Pros:
Tons of offensive firepower
Best players starting
Jackson's game is better suited to starting

Cons
Lack of defensive stopper
Enough shots for Ginobili/Jackson/Parker/Duncan?
Harder to allign Ginobili's minutes with Neal's (to help with PG duties)

Conclusions:
While this lineup features the biggest names at their positions, this might not be the best choice. By frontloading all their offensive might into the starting lineup it might be hard for players to find a rhythm early on. Also, without the stopper in the game, it might allow other teams to find that same rhythm.

Manu Ginobili/Kawhi Leonard
Pros:
Defensive stopper on the floor
Ginobili/Leonard combo maximizes Leonard's offense

Cons:
Jackson's game is better suited to starting
Harder to allign Ginobili's minutes with Neal's (to help with PG duties)

Conclusions:
This may be my favorite version, but I'm willing to listen to other options. Leonard really needs to be a starter because of the things he brings to the defense. Just ask Kevin Durant after last night's game. But his lack of offense can seriously bog the whole thing down. This tandem really maximizes his overall game. Gary Neal may just need to rule the backup PG without Gino more than we'd like. But Jackson has some nice playmaking and passing skills. While hes more tailored to starting, he and Neal can really carve out a nice crew with the second unit.

Kawhi Leonard/Stephen Jackson
Pros:
Defensive Stopper on the floor
Jackson's game is better suited to starting
Ginobili can allign minutes with Neal (to help with PG duties)

Cons:
Can Jackson guard 2's if Leonard is on a 3?
Ginobili/Leonard offensive tandem negated

Conclusions:
The main downside of this version is that we don't pair Gino with Leonard. But that may be an overstatement because we don't know how effective a Jackson/Leonard pairing is. While it's doubtful that Jackson will make Leonard as good as Gino does, he could raise his level sufficiently to make this make sense. The other thing is that Jackson will struggle guarding 2's because of his declining footspeed. Not a problem if Leonard is guarding the 2, but when playing teams that feature a premiere SF scorer, Jack will be asked to taker the quicker and smaller off guard. I like this less than Gino/Leonard, but it could work.

At this point I don't think we can really talk too much about who starts in the post next to Timmy. Not knowing who the Spurs will sign after being waived, it's hard to make a claim. If the Spurs get Diaw, I think they should seriously consider starting Duncan/Diaw. Now, in order to be successful in the playoffs, the Splitter/Duncan tandem needs to be refined. But I'm not sure how effective that will be since they're the only two players really capable of playing center (Diaw included in that thought).

All and all, assuming the Spurs sign Diaw, I'd like to see a starting lineup like this:

Tony Parker
Manu Ginobili
Kawhi Leonard
Boris Diaw
Tim Duncan

I'm willing to discuss and reconsider my views. And obviously this depends on Diaw being signed and being succesful. But I think this lineup would be very strong. Especially with a second unit featuring Stephen Jackson, Gary Neal and Tiago Splitter.

Of course, when the playoffs start, I assume this will be blown up and the starting lineup will change sometimes every game based on the chess game Pop plays.

Speaking of the playoffs...

Playoff Rotation

The Spurs have featured a fairly large rotation to date. All of the following players have received consistent minutes when healthy:

Tony Parker
TJ Ford
Manu Ginobili
Kawhi Leonard
Richard Jefferson
Danny Green
Gary Neal
Tim Duncan
Tiago Splitter
Dejuan Blair
Matt Bonner

Now obviously some players have gotten more minutes because of long-term injuries to Ginobili and Ford. But the reality is that the Spurs have consistently sought minutes for these 11 players. Factoring that Jefferson effectively is replaced by Jackson in the rotation, and a Diaw signing would consititute a 12th player....it's just not realistic to think that we'd be able to play nearly that many guys. In the playoffs a team will typically slash its rotation to 8 or 9 guys. Sometimes even as small as 7 - but thats an extreme I'd think. So how do we cut the fat, so to speak?

Point Guard
Tony Parker
Gary Neal

Parker will get the lion's share of the minutes, but Neal will continue as his backup. Unless the Spurs sign an amazing backup off the waiver wire, I don't foresee this changing once the playoffs start. Neal might be able to steal some minutes at the off guard also, but by playing him at the point it allows the team the opportunity to get him on the court.

Swingmen
Manu Ginobili
Stephen Jackson
Kawhi Leonard

That's it. Those three plus some spot minutes from Neal. The big loser here is Danny Green who is likely the odd man out. He just isn't as good as any of those 3 nor does he have Neal's PG "skills". It's always possible that Green could be played situationally because of his ability to be downright disruptive to other team's offenses...but I don't know that he'll be a rotation guy.

Posts
Tim Duncan
Tiago Splitter
Boris Diaw

Firstly, this obviously depends on the Spurs actually signing and playing Diaw. Secondly, the biggest surprise here is Matt Bonner being excluded. And honestly, that might be a bridge too far for Pop and his man-love with Bon Bon. My hope is that Diaw comes in and plays well and alleviates the need for the stretch four by himself. But it's very possible that Bonner will be used situationally and perhaps even as a 9th rotation guy. But, based on past performance in the playoffs, I'd feel better with Bonner glued to the bench. Blair has no business being on the court.

With that, my ideal playoff rotation is these 8 players.

Tony Parker
Gary Neal
Manu Ginobili
Stephen Jackson
Kawhi Leonard
Tim Duncan
Boris Diaw
Tiago Splitter

Thoughts? Recommendations?

[Gagnrath]

Yes keeping Green developing and playing.

Starters Parker, Green, Jackson, Blair, Duncan.

Sub in Manu at around the 5 minute mark for Green, keep the current Splitter - Duncan time splits. Around the 7 minute mark Sub in Neal for Parker and Leonard for Jackson, Spend the rest of the game riding whomever has the hot shooting hands between Neal, Jackson, Green, Manu and Leonard. Blair and Bonner subbing for each other untill another PF is acquired play small ball with Jackson/Leonard as 4 a decent amount. With 4 good sized Tweener small forward/shooting guards you sub in alot and go with the hot hand, defensive energy as needed watching game ebb and flow. Neal needs to be on the floor with either Manu or Green when Parker isn't in the game till Jackson relearns the Spurs offense. Neal needs to be in the offense as much as possible when defensive match-ups aren't stupidly bad against him.

[Gagnrath]

I am personally really curious to see how much a motivated Jackson has left.

[Stalin]

have ginobli come of the bench, he's well suited to it, jackson starting, with green or lenard, doesn't really matter which one
think you need to have jackson start, 10 mill a year, his ego needs it, he's still a great chucking scorer, with good d, huge upgrade over dick jefferson, imo

[MR.SILVER&BLack]

have ginobli come of the bench, he's well suited to it, jackson starting, with green or lenard, doesn't really matter which one
think you need to have jackson start, 10 mill a year, his ego needs it, he's still a great chucking scorer, with good d, huge upgrade over dick jefferson, imo
Yep. when manu starts Parker is not as aggressive and seems to let manu run the offense too much.

[jestersmash]

Is Boris Diaw a virtual lock to sign with San Antonio or something? I've seen a couple of people talk about and include him in hypothetical playoff rotations so nonchalantly that it makes me wonder if I've missed some major news....

[therealtruth]

Pop has said Manu is starting when he gets healthy. The only question is whether KL or SJax starts. I am undecided but with the way KL plays defense I think it might make sense to start him and bring SJax of the bench.

[MR.SILVER&BLack]

Is Boris Diaw a virtual lock to sign with San Antonio or something? I've seen a couple of people talk about and include him in hypothetical playoff rotations so nonchalantly that it makes me wonder if I've missed some major news....
hes already said spurs & Knicks are at the top of his list & TP is one of his good friends.

[TDMVPDPOY]

gino need to b bench, he can score watever with bench

[spectator]

i really think that these players at these positions, for these minutes, could be a part of a championship team:

PG - parker (38); neal (10)
SG - manu (32); neal/green (16)
SF - kawhi (30); jackson (18)
C - duncan (33); splitter (15)

i could only give bonner (10) and blair (8), for a championship team - so the spurs need to find someone to plug the PF hole. they could still make a legit run at it, but they would need 100% healthy players and plenty of luck to make it happen.

at this point in the season, most ppl see the spurs making the 2nd round - where they would probably play the no-lakes fakes or memphis there-are-no-grizzlies-here-but-what-the-heck grizzlies. if they pass that huge test, they match up well with okc. if they get to the finals, the heat would be the worst team they could meet - but they played them well for one half this season. (and no one expects lebron to go bunkers like that for 7 games)

[The Truth #6]

Some version of:

Starting 5:

Parker
Leonard
Jackson
Duncan
Blair

Bench:

Neal
Manu
Green
Bonner
Splitter

Obviously, some minutes will get squeezed. Most likely Blair's minutes will drop even further and Splitter's will increase out of necessity. Neal with also play alongside Parker. And Green's minutes may go down if Jackson plays at least halfway decent.

Our new PG Patty may get some PO time but that's wide open at this point. I imagine he'll have a honeymoon phase in the next few weeks wherein Pop gives him a chance and then for no obvious reason adjusts his playing time.

The backup PG position is basically like the drummer for Spinal Tap. It's constanly rotating, and often afflicted with bad luck, swift changes, and disappearances. Not an enviable position to be in for a player trying to make it in the league. You'd assume Pop would want team first play and passing, but really he just wants confidence. I believe the Beno Disaster against the Pistons in some way scarred Pop in that he can't stomach passive play from the backup PG and he'll take aggressiveness as a substitute for confidence, even if it means getting a player who is a chucker and can't pass. Just my opinion.

[timvp]

Great post, Darkwaters :tu

Once Jackson is in shape, I think he makes most sense as a starter. He just doesn't seem like the kind of player that can have success off the bench. So unless he's absolutely done or shows he's able to play as a reserve over the next week or so, I'd pencil him into the starting lineup.

Ginobili could fit next to Jackson but like you said, that's a lot of firepower in your starting lineup. Leonard brings defense and activity, which is also useful for the starting lineup. Plus, if Blair or Diaw are starting, you need some rebounding help and Leonard can provide that.

Ginobili from off the bench we already knows works well. As for Danny Green, I agree he's probably on the outside of the rotation. However, he fits the change-of-pace swingman role rather well. If things aren't going well, Green's a great option for Pop who can go into the game and turn the tide. Neal at shooting guard is another option when the offense is struggling.

As far as the bigs are concerned, it will depend on whether the Spurs can land Diaw or a comparable player. If not, I really wish Pop would consider starting Duncan and Splitter in the playoffs and then using either Bonner or Blair off the bench ... but I doubt that happens.

As it stands, the playoffs will probably include a lot of Bonner :(







P.S.

The lineup that could possibly limit Bonner's time is Parker, Ginobili, Jackson, Leonard, Duncan. If that fivesome can succeed on a regular basis, I could see it being the closing lineup Pop goes to. And while it's a little small, I'll gladly accept it when Bonner is the alternative.

[TD 21]

I think you've mostly got it right, Darkwaters, other than the exclusion of Bonner. Bonner will be in it and he should be (because they don't have one big to eat up 40 or two to play in the 30's, it makes sense to play 4) . . . only as the fourth big and playing limited minutes. And that may actually happen this time, because Diaw, though nowhere near as good a shooter, is basically a stretch four in his own right. Of course, it'll take Diaw significantly outplaying him for that to happen, but at least the possibility exists this time.

I've maintained since it was clear there was a good chance Diaw would become a Spur, that starting Leonard made the most sense, so as to somewhat make up for Diaw's lack of rebounding. Also, he'd give them a wing defender in the starting lineup for the first time since Bowen was still starting. Harvey has hinted that this is the route they're likely to go.

Minutes wise, it's tough to say. There's too many variables. But it's safe to say Parker will be in the upper thirties and Duncan and Ginobili in the mid thirties. After that, it depends on match-ups, who's playing well, who's not, etc.

[100%duncan]

I agree with much of your thoughts but I found some kinda wrong IMO.
-So with all the starting combos that jackson is in,especially with gino, your saying that we have no stoppers, which means you underestimating jack's D.
-Leonard isn't an offensive liability even if paired with jack because jack is mature and has high bball IQ and will able to make good passes while kawhi cuts to the basket.