Black Jack. Profitable or 100% casino scam?

[Fabbs]

We all saw the movie "21". The MIT kids really did it. Until the scamcinos strong armed them out.

A guy nicknamed "Stanford Wong" also claims to have taken the the casinos down for 1000s, probably millions. He is no longer welcome just as the MIT kids were banned.
Stanford Wong talks about his system -for a price. :rolleyes

However, he also gives a pleasantly large amount of info for free.
So the q to you is, can BlackJack be consistently won? Or is it guaranteed loss?
www.BJ21.com
Tell me what you think about the strategies discussed.

See also
www.TheBearGrowls.com

[Fabbs]

http://www.bj21.com/bj_reference/pages/41143.html

Says avoid 6 to 5, other stuff like the plague.

[TDMVPDPOY]

with gambling ppl love to boast about their winnings but never talk about how much they loss....

[Fabbs]

with gambling ppl love to boast about their winnings but never talk about how much they loss....
yes that's one reason i like what i see so far from both these guys sites. (same guy running both sites?). He clearly states the scamcinos roast 99% + of the people coming thru the doors.

[Slomo]

No.

Basic strategy only guarantees one thing, that you'll lose your money slower than in any other casino game (and that's only if you play 99% reliable basic strategy - it's not difficult to learn, but it requires discipline and a little practice).

Counting cards only works in Las Vegas because everywhere else the rules are so much more in favour of the house that even with counting cards the risk and required bets are just too high.

I played a lot of Blackjack in Las Vegas and usually came out ahead. It means that of the 10+ consecutive years I spent at least two visit of a week or more per year, there was this one trip when I left Las Vegas with roughly 4k$ more in my pocket than when I came into town. All the other trips it was between a small loss (less than a 1000$) or a small profit (a few hundred $). But the trick was that for me it was a vacation and palying perfect basic strategy meant I put enough time at the tables everyday without going broke that I got comped a lot. I got free room, free food, drinks and I've also seen all the major shows for free and generally had a lot of fun while being there.

So if I look at the money I brought into town and how much of it I left there, then compare it to what the same trip would have cost me without blackjack, I actually always made a profit (sort of :) ).

Did I get rich? Can you make a living out of it?

Of course not!

And one last thing it only works in Las Vegas (maybe also in Atlantic city, but I'm not sure), everywhere else (Europe, Carribean, cruise ships...) the rules of Blackjack are heavily adjusted in favour of the house, so even basic strategy doesn't really help you stay in the game long (and without the comp system, why would you want to?).

[Slomo]

I haven't been in Las Vegas for a while now, but I heard from friends that the comp system has gotten a lot tougher in recent years, so that also screws up my "profit".

[DPG21920]

Play poker.

[DeadlyDynasty]

Play Craps. Greatest game in the history of games.

[DMC]

I don't gamble at all. I won't even bet a dollar at a casino. They don't get that big by losing.

[Fabbs]

Did I get rich? Can you make a living out of it?

Of course not!

And one last thing it only works in Las Vegas (maybe also in Atlantic city, but I'm not sure), everywhere else (Europe, Carribean, cruise ships...) the rules of Blackjack are heavily adjusted in favour of the house, so even basic strategy doesn't really help you stay in the game long (and without the comp system, why would you want to?).
Slomo,
I believe everything you wrote. That having been said, could you take a look at the sites and give me your take on what Stanford Wong and The Bear have to say specifically regarding 21?

All the moreso since you have lived it and know it.

[Slomo]

Slomo,
I believe everything you wrote. That having been said, could you take a look at the sites and give me your take on what Stanford Wong and The Bear have to say specifically regarding 21?

All the moreso since you have lived it and know it.

One of the best books I ever read on the subject, opened with the author saying that he's made more money writing the book, than he ever made playing BJ.

Counting cards work, there no doubt about it and the quantity of training to master the skill is significant, but not impossible for most people. But you have to understand how it works.

Now I haven't played BJ seriously for quite a few years so the numbers that I'll mention are probably off, but they are in the correct range. Also the data is from the golden age of BJ in Vegas, where competition forced casinos to compete with each other for customers by offering very "fair" odds.

Basically if you played in a single deck game and were able to follow the basic strategy perfectly the casino's advantage was somewhere around 0,5%. Even in a six deck game the advantage was below 1%. Now this sounds fair, but in reality it guarantees that the Casino will show a profit at the end of the day.

Counting cards tells you to whether the remaining deck is in your favor or the casino's and to what degree. You will still win and lose the same number of hands as when playing only basic strategy - but you will know when to bet more and when to bet less. This variation of the bets is what give you a small financial advantage.

The problem there is the following: Since this is all based on statistics you need to play a LOT of hands for the statistics to catch up with reality and even with counting cards and varying bets accordingly your advantage is in the realm of only a few percents. So you need a LOT of money (and be ready to put it all on the line), play a LOT of time to have a profit of a few percents (that is if a freak statistical aberration doesn't wipe them out in a single hand).

Now add to this that Casino's don't allow card counting and spend serious money chasing people who do off their premises. This means you have to mask your skills and allow a few bad loses and vary the bets much less than you would like to (or should) - this further decrease your profit margin %. Basically you would make the same amount of money much easier with a half decent regular job.

In the end the only way to win some solid money reliably is to cheat - and that's what the MIT crew did and anybody else that claims to have made money consistently off of BlackJack - no exception. While you will get - politely - kicked out of a Casino for card counting, you will see the inside of a jail for cheating.

And all of the above is even more difficult in environments that are not as "BJ friendly" as Vegas is.

My two cents on the subject. You can also look on Amazon, where you will find a ton of good books on the subject that will explain what I said much better and in more details.

[Slomo]

Oh and I thought "21" was a pretty bad movie about an otherwise good story. Too many factual errors and Hollywood spins on the whole thing. Kinda liked Kate Bosworth (sp?) though.

[Fabbs]

One of the best books I ever read on the subject, opened with the author saying that he's made more money writing the book, than he ever made playing BJ.
:lmao hearing you loud and clear.
Like all the books on Hold Em. Nice on paper. Not the real world. Oh a few nuggets here and there, but by and large we see the Hold Em **experts** being exposed more and more. Ie Howard *The Professor* Letterer and Chris Satan Furgeson with their Full Tilt scam.


In the end the only way to win some solid money reliably is to cheat - and that's what the MIT crew did and anybody else that claims to have made money consistently off of BlackJack - no exception.
Slomo how do you figure this Don Johnson did it at not one but three consecutive scamcinos? In addition to having a huge bankroll (as you mentioned was neccessary) do you think he somehow cheated?
http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/breaking/meet-the-blackjack-player-who-beat-the-trop-for-million/article_86f42838-83c8-11e0-92d7-001cc4c03286.html

[mouse]

make 5,000 in less than 30 seconds.

http://i125.photobucket.com/albums/p55/RackTheMouse/Picture005-1.png

[Slomo]

...

Slomo how do you figure this Don Johnson did it at not one but three consecutive scamcinos? In addition to having a huge bankroll (as you mentioned was neccessary) do you think he somehow cheated?
http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/breaking/meet-the-blackjack-player-who-beat-the-trop-for-million/article_86f42838-83c8-11e0-92d7-001cc4c03286.html

Well I can only offer my opinion but a few things jump at me in that article.

Assuming he really won that much two things are inevitable: 1.- He must have had an enormous bankroll, and 2.- I can't see him doing it without counting cards, so I'm guessing he was very careful with it and chose his moment to bet big very carefully.

The biggest thing that makes me suspicious is when the article says he played 12 hours straight in a Casino. In order to come out ahead in such a long stretch without counting you need crazy money (and if you have it why put it on a BJ table?). The longer you play the more the statistical advantage of the Casino will catch up with you.

Second he mentions his winning, but not how much he lost in that stretch - just that he did. So assuming he's telling the truth about not counting and not cheating I would guess the net profit for the trip was nowhere near those figures.

And finally the whole articles reads like an add for the Atlantic city casinos (mentioning how much they are willing to risk it, offering discounts on loses, ...)

He is either the luckiest SOB I heard of or he's not telling us everything.

I had a run once in the Hard Rock Casino in Vegas (and a couple of friends form Slovenia were with me so I have witnesses :) ) where I was showing off a little while explaining basic strategy, so I bet 100$ (I never start this high) on the first hand and hit a blackjack. I let it ride and got 11 against the dealer showing a 5, I doubled down and won so in just two hands I made 650$. I left 400$ on the third hand and got 20 against the dealer's 17 and won again. So I leave 700$ on the table and hit two consecutive blackjacks with a bet of a 1000$ on the second one. I leave 1000$ on the table and split two 8s on the next hand and win one hand while busting on the other. At that point I said something like "you see BJ is that easy" and walked away with 3600$ profit in less than 10 minutes of play.

Now that was great, but I still went home at the end of the trip with a negative balance and the fact that I remember these events so clearly after almost 8 years should be a clear indication of how frequently things like that happen :lol

But yeah the story back home was, Slomo can win 3,6k$ in 10 minutes in Vegas...

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Everyone I know says they make a killing on black jack

[Slomo]

Everyone I know says they make a killing on black jack

1.- Shame. Won't admit to have spent the kids tuition fund in a Casino.

2.- Selective memory. Adds up the winnings, while forgetting the losses.

3.- Every so often somebody actually wins and manage to walk away in time, but it's rarely a substantial amount.

[DMC]

Simple answer: Size of your home vs size of casino

You're gambling, they aren't.

[TDMVPDPOY]

if you want to make a killing, ur better off playing baccarat....bet with the flow of the game, sometimes u can win like 17 straight hands...lol this stupid indian that won 200k in one night and blew it the night after,....

[Girasuck]

A lot of people make fun of video poker, but honestly it's the only game at a casino where you have some say in what happens. Every other game is just blind luck. I've had a lot of success playing video poker wherever I go.

[Heath Ledger]

I used to play softball with a former MIT guy who still plays for a living he also cashed for 240k a few years back in the WSOP main event. But he tells me its tough business because of the casinos having 8 and 10 decks in a shoe and his swings were still pretty enormous and stressful. Casinos have taken many counter measures since the old days.