Duncan '11 vs Duncan '12

[Spurs7794]

Even though his numbers are similar for these two years, I've felt like Tim Duncan 2012 is MUCH better than the 2011 version. According to basketball reference, in '11, he only had a max streak of 5 double digit games. This year, he has scored double digits in 22 out of the last 23 games with the only 8 point game being that back to back against Toronto in which he played 19 minutes.

Besides that, his jumper has been more money this year and his post moves have been better. Last year, it felt like he could be counted on to throw up atleast one garbage shot per game (one where he flails wildly and it is an airball or hits off a weird spot on the backboard). This year, that happens a lot less. He just seems like he's in a rhythm this year whereas last year, he never looked comfortable.

Basically, i wanted to start this thread because I don't think alot of people realize how much better he's played this year because his numbers are so similar. When I was watching 2011 Duncan, I felt like "who the hell is this guy?? What happened to Tim Duncan?" He was woefully inconsistant. This years version, I feel like is more of what I would expect from an aging Tim Duncan (less dominant but still consistent and effective.)

[Russo21]

Agree with pretty much all of that. He's been playing great consistant basketball. Nothing like 2002 Duncan of course, but he's been balling in 2012. I feel confident something good will happen everytime he touches the ball. Passing great, shooting from the outside nicely with good inside moves and rebounding and playing D well. He's doing very well in my oppinion. No complaints about 2012 Duncan from me. He's a quiet Legend.

[timvp]

Tough to say. Subjectively, he looks better. He started off slow but he's been pretty damn good for a while now.

Advanced stats, though, are mixed. Plus/minus stats and WP48 say this is by far the worst year of his career. WS/48 is also at a career low. But PER says Duncan is as good as last year.

His reliance on outside shooting has definitely changed him as a player. I'm not sure if it's for the better or the worse. Logically, he's probably worse since he's a year older but after seeing him curbstomp Kevin Love like that it's difficult to say that's a worse Duncan that the one who had trouble with Gasol's brother in the playoffs.

[Spurs7794]

Tough to say. Subjectively, he looks better. He started off slow but he's been pretty damn good for a while now.

Advanced stats, though, are mixed. Plus/minus stats and WP48 say this is by far the worst year of his career. WS/48 is also at a career low. But PER says Duncan is as good as last year.

His reliance on outside shooting has definitely changed him as a player. I'm not sure if it's for the better or the worse. Logically, he's probably worse since he's a year older but after seeing him curbstomp Kevin Love like that it's difficult to say that's a worse Duncan that the one who had trouble with Gasol's brother in the playoffs.

Yeah I know that the advanced stats say that stuff (I saw the player pairs you did which shows that he's had a negative effect on most of the other Spurs on offense). I'm just going by visually especially since the Minnesota game where that troll showed up calling him a TOSB. Last year seemed like a different player completely where I didn't trust him when he was being guarded 1 on 1. This year, he just seems like a downgraded prime Tim Duncan which is all we can expect at 35 years old.

[Cane]

Duncan was injured after the midway point of the 2011 season (Spurs overall started to slide afterwards) and then reaggravated it early in the Grizz series.

2012 Duncan looks like he's taking more jumpers off the dribble and he's also got more energy in his legs, he's been dunking more in the past few games. Tbh I think missing the All Star Game for the first time in his career has given Duncan some extra motivation in addition to the infamous first round exit. Hopefully he doesn't wear himself out in the regular season

[Bruno]

I remember timvp having a thread starting stating how Duncan's production dropped after the ASB in 08-09 and 09-10.
In 10-11, he had a relatively constant regular season but at a relatively low level. He struggled in the playoffs.
This year, he seems to be better with the year advancing.

[iManu]

Last year, at times, I felt like this was his last push at utility.

It's like he took a nap and now there's no doubt in my mind that he's still an All Star (and should be for a few more years.)

[Spurfect21]

There is no question that Timmy is playing all around better basketball this year. It almost looks like he is angry at himself for what happened with the first round exit last year. He is quicker and controls games defensively like we're all used to. And don't forget that this is a contract year for Tim. Not to say he's playing better for money but he wants to prove that the 12 to 13 million he will get next year from the FO is not just because of what he's done in the past and the name on his jersey. He is worth every cent and he's just showing it a bit more it looks like

[Stalin]

Yeah I know that the advanced stats say that stuff (I saw the player pairs you did which shows that he's had a negative effect on most of the other Spurs on offense). I'm just going by visually especially since the Minnesota game where that troll showed up calling him a TOSB. Last year seemed like a different player completely where I didn't trust him when he was being guarded 1 on 1. This year, he just seems like a downgraded prime Tim Duncan which is all we can expect at 35 years old.


:lol

[100%duncan]

Too tough to decide since each year he gets older, and slower.

[TDMVPDPOY]

when his motivated he looks good man, last the last game, he move so easily against scrubs

[siraulo23]

I remember timvp having a thread starting stating how Duncan's production dropped after the ASB in 08-09 and 09-10.
In 10-11, he had a relatively constant regular season but at a relatively low level. He struggled in the playoffs.
This year, he seems to be better with the year advancing.

I was about to say this

hopefully, its the opposite this season, and his production keeps up till the end of their playoff run

Remember earlier this year when duncan couldnt pull off any moves in the low block? We're starting to see duncan execute an array of moves in the past couple of weeks.

Hopefully he can keep it up

[Spursfanfromafar]

I think the best way to evaluate Tim Duncan is to look at match-ups and schedule. The latter is easy.. in back-to-backs or games in the end of a gruelling schedule, Duncan seems to struggle, as he is expected to, in his age.

Without looking closely at the record, I think, in matchups where Duncan is defended by sturdy bigs who also have decent PFs as partners, Duncan has had to do too much offensively and defensively and he hasn't come out too well.

Perhaps this warrants a closer look.

In other words, it is not so much an up-down performance as much as it is a match up issue. And the latter will be important when the playoffs come.

[therealtruth]

Tough to say. Subjectively, he looks better. He started off slow but he's been pretty damn good for a while now.

Advanced stats, though, are mixed. Plus/minus stats and WP48 say this is by far the worst year of his career. WS/48 is also at a career low. But PER says Duncan is as good as last year.

His reliance on outside shooting has definitely changed him as a player. I'm not sure if it's for the better or the worse. Logically, he's probably worse since he's a year older but after seeing him curbstomp Kevin Love like that it's difficult to say that's a worse Duncan that the one who had trouble with Gasol's brother in the playoffs.

His outside jumper might have helped him more against M. Gasol in the playoffs. Kevin Love isn't 7'1 260 so I don't know if we can draw too many conclusions from that. Right now if I am the opposing coach I put my 7 foot center on Duncan and see if he can beat him of the dribble.

Really if TD can get 20+ and 12+ in the playoffs the Spurs have a good chance. I just hope Bonner/Blair don't hurt us too much.

[therealtruth]

I think the best way to evaluate Tim Duncan is to look at match-ups and schedule. The latter is easy.. in back-to-backs or games in the end of a gruelling schedule, Duncan seems to struggle, as he is expected to, in his age.

Without looking closely at the record, I think, in matchups where Duncan is defended by sturdy bigs who also have decent PFs as partners, Duncan has had to do too much offensively and defensively and he hasn't come out too well.

Perhaps this warrants a closer look.

In other words, it is not so much an up-down performance as much as it is a match up issue. And the latter will be important when the playoffs come.

Exactly if Duncan goes against an allstar frontcourt combo like the Grizzlies or Lakers he's going to need help. I think that help will need to be Splitter. Splitter's is our only hope for being able to defend one on one against allstar bigman combos.

[Spursfan092120]

Not a bad article

Psst….Tim Duncan is quietly getting better

In the words of Spurs coach Gregg Popovich, Minnesota Timberwolves power forward Kevin Love is “a really strange dude.”
“He’s a great player, but he is strange,” Popovich said. “When you combine his skills with his body, he looks like he should be doing different things. And even when he does those things, he looks different than anybody I’ve ever seen doing them.”
Love has also been, arguably, the best power forward in the NBA this season. A unique combination of Dirk Nowitzki’s shooting range, Dennis Rodman’s rebounding, and a not quite Chris Webber-ish feel for the game on the offensive end.
Last night the (current) best power forward of this generation was reminded by the greatest power forward of any generation that he still has a ways to go to carry the mantle.
While the year began with reporters questioning Tim Duncan’s basketball mortality—questions he answered with as much frustration and incredulity as his stone-faced façade would allow—the San Antonio Spurs franchise player has quietly been getting stronger as the season has gone along.
Duncan’s per game averages have increased across the board with each passing month, lifting his points per game average from nine to 16.8, and his rebounding from six to 10.7. More importantly, his efficiency is improving. Duncan is once again approaching the 50 percent shooting mark for March and getting to the free throw line roughly six times a night since the All-Star break.
When granted rest, Duncan is even able to provide a reasonable facsimile of his former self, putting up 19.5 ppg and 12.5 rebounds on three days rest (two games), 17 ppg and 10.4 rebounds on two days rest (seven games), and 14.5 ppg and 9.3 rebounds on one day of rest.
“Tim’s been really fresh all year long,” Popovich said. “I’m really enthused about his health and his body. He’s got quickness and he’s got more agility than he’s had in a while. He’s had it for the whole season, so it’s been fun to watch.”
Before the game Popovich praised the weight loss of Kevin Love, noting the significant differences it’s made in his game.
“It helped him a great deal,” Popovich said. “He moves better, he’s more efficient. Everything he does is quicker.”
While Love has received credit for the work done on his body, a svelte Duncan has received little attention. But everything Popovich said about Love pertains to Duncan as well, and that rediscovered agility was on full display last night when Duncan (21 points, 15 rebounds) gave Love the quick hint of a fake and went right past him for a layup.
There are some that will point out that the lost bulk has made dimmed some of Duncan’s ability to hold position in the post, and perhaps they are right. But for a player with not insignificant knee problems, the sacrifice in the name of mobility and durability are well worth it.
According to Hoopdata, Duncan is getting the rim nearly six times a night over the past 10 games (and they’ve improved steadily each month) and shooting 65.5 percent once he gets there. The return of Duncan’s dunks are not merely a mirage, they’re a visual representation of the improved mobility at his disposal.
Watching the game last night, our own Andrew McNeil came up with an interesting theory. The rate of decline in Duncan’s knees may have, for the time being, leveled off. It might be reasonable to expect Duncan to carry on at this level past this season, and there are a few reasons to believe this might hold true.
Thus far, Duncan is moving better than he had at any point last season. And difference between last year’s playoffs, and the year before that (when Duncan moved around with a noticeably pained gait) are night and day.
If Duncan’s knees bottomed out during the second round loss to Phoenix, and the two-year regimen of weight loss and reduced minutes have stabilized things, we might have one strong Duncan post season run after all.
“This is the Tim I have always known, he is moving great,” now and former Spur Stephen Jackson said. “From watching him last year to now, he definitely looks like the old Tim Duncan. To get where we want to be, we are going to need him to play like that.”
While Duncan is long past the player Jackson once played with, for now that speaks more to how dominant Duncan was in his prime than it does his effectiveness now. For now it’s enough to hold off talks of retirement, and Kevin Love, for just a little bit longer.


Read more: http://www.48minutesofhell.com/psst-tim-duncan-is-quietly-getting-better#ixzz1puVpGTqv

[Leetonidas]

Fuck man, Pop needs to pull his head out of his ass and start Splitter. If LA can pair two Cs together and make it work, I don't see see how Tim and Splitter can't work. We have a good frontline it's just Pop is a dumbass and won't play them together. Timmy has a great midrange game and Splitter has showed quickness guarding the perimeter and switching off on smaller players. No other coach in the NBA wouldn't be starting these two alongside each other :pctoss

Duncan is quietly having a nice resurgence. The stats may not show it but he is definitely more spry than he was last season. He looks loose out there, even young some days. We've seen a lot more vintage performances and moves this season than last season

[xellos88330]

The Spurs bought one of those freezer things that substitutes the ice bath. Heard Tim has taking a liking to it. That is the only explanation that I can offer about his seemingly younger legs.

[Obstructed_View]

He's lighter, and he's got actual defenders to help him so he's not getting beat down doing all the work. That probably makes the biggest difference. This year's Duncan looks capable of playing 42 minutes a night in the playoffs, which is what will need to happen if the Spurs want ring number 5.

[therealtruth]

Fuck man, Pop needs to pull his head out of his ass and start Splitter. If LA can pair two Cs together and make it work, I don't see see how Tim and Splitter can't work. We have a good frontline it's just Pop is a dumbass and won't play them together. Timmy has a great midrange game and Splitter has showed quickness guarding the perimeter and switching off on smaller players. No other coach in the NBA wouldn't be starting these two alongside each other :pctoss

Duncan is quietly having a nice resurgence. The stats may not show it but he is definitely more spry than he was last season. He looks loose out there, even young some days. We've seen a lot more vintage performances and moves this season than last season

Pop has said he was playing Splitter as many minutes as possible. There are a number of arguments why that may be the case. One is that it would force Bonner and Blair to play together. If we get Diaw and they still don't play together we'll know that's not the reason. Others said Pop was trying to keep Splitter's minutes low because he's injury prone. Other's have said the offense doesn't work well with them.

[mercos]

No idea what the stats say, but Duncan has looked noticeably better this year. His jumper is the most obvious improvement as it has been money all year. His post moves are still not what we are accustomed to seeing, but they are even looking better this year as compared to last year. His defense has been excellent. This is why it kills me that Pop won't play him with Splitter. Tiago could take over the low post where he has played well this year, and Duncan could slide out and take over the Antonio McDyess roll. That is where he has excelled this year anyway. With those two patrolling the paint on defense, we would be tough to beat.

[cheguevara]

good thread. I was gonna mention something about this.

Duncan seems to be going for the dunk a lot more and running the floor. also making quick decisions vs. holding the ball previous years.

hopefully his body will hold up

[100%duncan]

^One thing I like more about TD this year is that he doesn't settle for soft finishes anymore or at least he lessened them. He also improved that jumper but it still scares me when he shoots that long 2

[manufan10]

I agree. He's even dunked a lot more this year compared to last year.

According to 82games.com in the 2010-2011 season 6% of Duncan's shots were dunks. So far this season 10% of Duncan's shots have been dunks.

[TheChillFactor]

I just feel a throwback type playoff effort from TD coming on. We've got a good team and the West is wide open - just get him a shot at it and his instincts as a top 10 player of all time will take over.

[Giuseppe]

Duncan is still an old shit bag. Just not quite as tired obviously.

[timvp]

Ever since Duncan's lowpoint this season -- that pair of games when Duncan got outplayed by Pekovic and then sat out while the bench almost came back to beat the Mavs -- his stats have really improved. His PER before the lowpoint was 18.3. Since the lowpoint, his PER is 23.9.

While 23.9 isn't at the level of championship year Duncans, it's better than he was in 2006 and just about equal to his 2008 level.