Necessary changes for Bonner and Blair

[angelbelow]

It's no secret that I've been a fan of Blair since we drafted him. A few games into the season, I started a thread noting Blair's possible improvement. At the time, I was hopeful that he could remain consistent throughout the season (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=188652). At this point, it's clear that he's unable to bring strong effort and smart play on a consistent basis. For the remainder of the regular season, I think some changes should be made.

Dejuan is probably better served as a 4th/5th big off the bench. While very few would argue otherwise, deciding between the two roles isn't as straight foward. Some have noted that Blair is most effective when teamed with the big 3, therefore it's difficult to expect him to be productive (and mature enough based on last year) if he's reduced to a bench role. Blair also does his damage early in games while fading out as the game progresses. Therefore, by taking him out of the startling line up and you risk losing any contribution he makes (not necessarily a bad thing if Diaw replaces him.) Furthermore, it's obvious that Blair is capable of doing some nice things and definitely has some potential as a player. When it comes to PER, Blair's 16.4 is only behind Manu, Tony, Timmy, Tiago and Kawhi. However, there is evidence that he's actually getting worse in areas like rebounding: his TRB% (stat that measures the estimated % of available rebounds that the player grabs) has dropped from 20.6 his rookie year to 15.6 and

Another complication is the inconsistency of Matt Bonner. Historically, Matt plays well in the regular season before crumbling to the pressures of playoff basketball. However, if you break down his regular season performances, you'll notice a potential foreshadowing to his playoff struggles. On the season, Bonner averages 45% from 3pt range and attempts 4.1 per game. Against some of the top defensive teams like Chicago, Philly, and Miami, Bonner had trouble getting looks, averaging 2.3 3PA and only 1 3PM. Overall, Bonner still has some nice games against playoff caliber teams (like today) but is inconsistent. Prior to today's game against Dallas and not counting Minnesota, Bonner was in a 6 game (5 of those against playoff teams) mini slump averaging just 3.8 pts and 3.5 rebounds. His best game during that stretch came against the lowly Wizards.

The good news is that the Spurs recently added Boris Diaw to the mix and theoretically slides Bonner and Blair to 4th and 5th in the depth chart. IMO Bonner's skill set is more valuable to the current make up of our team. Therefore, I would like to see Blair as the odd man out. However, I don't think it's as cut and dry as bench Blair and play Bonner - Pop's going to have to figure out who's playing better at the moment and take advantage match ups.

[TDMVPDPOY]

they need to be shown the door

[mystargtr34]

Good post.. for me though its pretty straight forward in that once Boris gets some familiarity he will take Blair's spot in the starting lineup and Tiago and Bonner will continue to come off the bench. If Bonner shits the bed come playoff time Blair may get an opportunity.. but at this point i prefer Bonner.

Im still torn on whether i would start Jackson or Leonard. With Diaw starting you have some more versatility on offense and so you can have the luxury of starting Leonard and Green. Personally, i would probably go with Jackson. But thats a discussion for another thread.

[jiggy_55]

I still like that energy Blair brings in the beginning of games, as he usually gets a couple of easy buckets and makes some good passes for easy scores. Most of his scoring and assists come in the 1st quarter, so why take him out unless Diaw shows he can provide the same energy and consistency at the start of games?

[buttsR4rebounding]

I think your analysis is dead on. Blair is a 5th big on the current squad. It may be due to his immaturity, however, that he needs to play his minutes as a 5th big at the start of the game to be effective. Diaw needs to get the majority of his minutes from Blair. Ideally, I think Diaw ends up starting with Tim. A starting five of Parker, Ginobili, Leonard, Duncan and Diaw could be pretty tough with Neal, Green, Splitter, Bonner and SJax as a second unit with JA and Blair picking up any slack...damn, we staaaaccckkkked!

[therealtruth]

I don't see why Tiago can't start now. With Diaw coming of the bench we don't have to worry about Bonner/Blair on the court at the same time. Diaw used to play center for the Suns. He can get the second unit good shots and has a some post game. That brings the first unit's defense as close to championship level as possible.

[100%duncan]

Just want bonner to be consistent and we'll be lethal. Don't count on it though, it's really unlikely to happen especially come playoffs time

[TDMVPDPOY]

I don't see why Tiago can't start now. With Diaw coming of the bench we don't have to worry about Bonner/Blair on the court at the same time. Diaw used to play center for the Suns. He can get the second unit good shots and has a some post game. That brings the first unit's defense as close to championship level as possible.

prefer splitter to play with the bench with ginoboli

duncan
scrub
KL
green
parker

splitter
diaw
jackson
ginoboli
neal

the first and 2nd unit gives us at leasts 3 guys on the court who can play uptempo lockdown defense without any rest...we are too deep with wing players where we should be exploiting them to play hard nose defense all game that will jurt other teams thinkn they can hang with the starters or the bench,

2nd unit better ball movement will allow players to get open looks and protecting any lead....at least the 2nd unit will force teams to earn every basket...i prefer ginoboli to be the point to create plays and shit, i still dont like neal at point, he even has trouble defending pgs

[my2sons]

What a great problem to have and a discussion I thought would never happen, but this team is so versatile, that Bonner has a chance to be used the way he should be used. Pop can pull him if he's not hitting and ride him if he's hot. He will no longer be covered by starters but bench players and there are so many options on the floor now, question is who gets double teamed and the floor will be spaced all over the place with so many inside outside possibilities

[Keepin' it real]

Therefore, I would like to see Blair as the odd man out. However, I don't think it's as cut and dry as bench Blair and play Bonner - Pop's going to have to figure out who's playing better at the moment and take advantage match ups.

Benching Blair worked out tremendously for the Spurs last season, so yeah, let's destroy Blair's psyche and the team's chemistry again. :bang

[thispego]

How can anyone that watches the games say that Blair doesn't bring effort? I swear some of you people don't even know what you're looking it. You're like mindless children.

[Arc]

blair is a fifth big. the only reason he's starting is so we can avoid the turd towers. now that we have diaw, if pop doesn't bench this guy once splitter is back and healthy, we're gonna be in big trouble. dirk torched him last night (while everyone else on the team made dirk look like a little kid who just shit the bed), and once the playoffs start, other teams are gonna torch him too. we can't put our best foot forward with the biggest turd on the team starting. you're only as strong as your weakest link.

[cd98]

Bonner is a game changer when he makes the 3. When he misses, he's a low end hussle player and fouler a la Brian Cardinal. Still, he spreads the floor. Play him as long as he makes his 3.

I like Blair. Sure his defense is average to poor, but he has great hands and finishes in traffic. He should play all his minutes with Manu on the court.

[Borosai]

Bonner's gonna tear shit up this year. Billeedat.

[dbestpro]

How can anyone that watches the games say that Blair doesn't bring effort? I swear some of you people don't even know what you're looking it. You're like mindless children.

Then lets change it to productive effort.

[Nathan89]

Bonner's gonna tear shit up this year. Billeedat.

I have a good feeling about Bonner this year. More ball movement and the addition of another player that can take the ball to the hoop(sjax) should lead to more open shots in the playoffs.

[therealtruth]

Benching Blair worked out tremendously for the Spurs last season, so yeah, let's destroy Blair's psyche and the team's chemistry again. :bang

It will work out if you put a better player in his spot. That wasn't the case last season. Dice was on his last legs and couldn't handle a starting spot.

[spursince#99]

Blair doesn't bring effort??? You Fucking clown you.

[TheSkeptic]

^^ Blair will often bring effort but you can never be sure if it'll help the Spurs or the other team.

Bonner really should be a situational player. Or if he *must* have regular minutes he needs a shorter leash. He's been playing about 10-15 too many minutes lately anyway. That extra time needs to be split between Diaw and Tiago tbh.

Blair could play ahead of Bonner but if he's going to sulk like last time I'm fine with Diaw taking all his minutes. Trade him on draft day or something.

[Tyrone Jenkins]

Good analysis.

However, I don't think of Blair, Splitter or Diaw in terms of 3rd, 4th and 5th. I prefer to think of them as starters and reserve. Some games, it's smart to start Blair due to matchup and expected tempo. Other times, someone w/ more defense and better low post scoring options should start.

Bonner is the only niche big player the Spurs have in that he's a 2 guard playing the 4 on defense. Bonner has no low post game so the Spurs essentially run a 1 - 4 offense w/ whoever the big is in the game at the time as the only post player. This arrangement breaks up the norm, gives the other team something to contend with and provides different avenues of scoring.

Everyone seems to keep focusing the lack of defense associated w/ Blair and Bonner. Trust that Pop KNOWS about this and has a plan...

[timvp]

It's a bit of tricky situation because of how usuccessful it was last year when the Spurs benched Blair. Even though benching Blair last season wasn't why they ended up collapsing and even though Blair deserves to be benched, it's not as simple as it probably should be. It doesn't help that Blair ate 30 pounds worth of Whataburger after getting benched last year.

If Pop benches Blair, he has to be prepared to lose him totally. With that in mind, do you make the move now? I say maybe not just because this schedule is so difficult that the Spurs can't afford to have Blair play even worse. Having five bigs who are all playing near the top of their game would be the best way to survive this schedule.

For now, I'm fine with Pop giving Blair his token minutes at the beginning of the halves. He can't really hurt the team too much and it keeps Blair's head in the game.

That said, come the last five or so games, going with Splitter or Diaw as the starter needs to happen. Usually in the postseason, Pop goes with a 3.5 bigman rotation. Duncan, Splitter and Diaw need to be the three, with Bonner or Blair filling in the extra time depending on matchups.

[Bruno]

It's a bit of tricky situation because of how usuccessful it was last year when the Spurs benched Blair. Even though benching Blair last season wasn't why they ended up collapsing and even though Blair deserves to be benched, it's not as simple as it probably should be. It doesn't help that Blair ate 30 pounds worth of Whataburger after getting benched last year.

IIRC, Blair got fat and then was benched.

[therealtruth]

It's a bit of tricky situation because of how usuccessful it was last year when the Spurs benched Blair. Even though benching Blair last season wasn't why they ended up collapsing and even though Blair deserves to be benched, it's not as simple as it probably should be. It doesn't help that Blair ate 30 pounds worth of Whataburger after getting benched last year.

If Pop benches Blair, he has to be prepared to lose him totally. With that in mind, do you make the move now? I say maybe not just because this schedule is so difficult that the Spurs can't afford to have Blair play even worse. Having five bigs who are all playing near the top of their game would be the best way to survive this schedule.

For now, I'm fine with Pop giving Blair his token minutes at the beginning of the halves. He can't really hurt the team too much and it keeps Blair's head in the game.

That said, come the last five or so games, going with Splitter or Diaw as the starter needs to happen. Usually in the postseason, Pop goes with a 3.5 bigman rotation. Duncan, Splitter and Diaw need to be the three, with Bonner or Blair filling in the extra time depending on matchups.

Dice wasn't ready for starting last year and Blair didn't adjust well to the bench. You have to think Blair is more mature now. Especially after getting cut by the Russian team. I think he could really do well in a bench role if he accepts it. He will be going against players that are generally shorter and less skilled.

[angelbelow]

blair is a fifth big. the only reason he's starting is so we can avoid the turd towers. now that we have diaw, if pop doesn't bench this guy once splitter is back and healthy, we're gonna be in big trouble. dirk torched him last night (while everyone else on the team made dirk look like a little kid who just shit the bed), and once the playoffs start, other teams are gonna torch him too. we can't put our best foot forward with the biggest turd on the team starting. you're only as strong as your weakest link.

False, Blair's defense against Dirk was above average last night. Dirk happened to make all his shots on Blair but that was not because Blair gave him freebies. With that said, I would still prefer to see Diaw and Jack on Dirk.

[jjktkk]

The next step in Blair's maturation, is the ability to handle being benched. If he can't handle it this year, theres not alot of hope for him in the future imo.

[therealtruth]

The next step in Blair's maturation, is the ability to handle being benched. If he can't handle it this year, theres not alot of hope for him in the future imo.

He's got to realize he's not a starting big on a championship team maybe lottery teams.

[Stalin]

:lol blair fans

[Proxy]

If Boris works out, then I would think it allows Matt and Blair to be utilized to the specific situations in which their skill set could be utilized as best possible.

I would say to continue to start Dejuan. No point in messing with something that hasn't necessarily hurt us... he's usually energetic, so that's something. Who knows when he goes off like he did against OKC.

[angelbelow]

Blair has really done well for us on the back to back to back. Good to see, and like early on in the season, I hope he can keep this up.

Bonner as well, since his 6 game mini-slump and his back spasm injury, hes played really well. Not just from an offensive standpoint but hes playing really good defense as well.

Diaw, more or less, has been what we expected. Willing passer, crafty defense, capable of making shots from anywhere on the floor, and high b-ball IQ.