Countdown to the Playoffs

[Ryan Fitzpatrick]

We are less than a month away from postseason basketball, and it can't come soon enough with this lackluster and condensed regular season.

This is a thread to discuss your teams' remaining games, and key matchups you're looking forward to.

For the Lakers (30-18), they are currently the 3rd seed and have 18 games remaining (10 Home, 8 Away). Oklahoma City is not likely to give up the top spot, and San Antonio has gotten stronger with their recent acquisitions, so they'll keep the pedal down as well. LA has 4 B2B's remaining, including a 6 games in 8 days stretch between March 31st and April 7th.

The games they have left can be separated into 3 categories:

1. Games against vastly inferior opponents that they should definitely win
2. Games against bottom seed/fringe playoff teams
3. Games against the upper-echelon of the conference

Of course, the Lakers last 4 losses have all been unacceptable, so no wins are a given.

In the first cat, they have 7 games: @GSW, NOH, GSW, NJN, @NOH, @GSW, @SAC. No doubt about it, they need to stop fucking around and go 7-0 on these scrubs. Will they? Not likely, but one can wish.

In the next tier, they have 4 games: @LAC, HOU, @PHX, DEN. No worse than 3-1 is acceptable here, if they're serious.

Finally, they have 7 games left against the upper crust: MEM, OKC, @SAS, DAL, SAS, @SAS, OKC. Dallas is playing badly, but they are the defending champs and will be getting guys back from injury by then. The Lakers need to go 5-2 or 4-3 in these games--preferably by beating DAL and MEM, splitting with OKC, and taking 2/3 from SAS.

LAL can (and should) finish 15-3 or 14-4, with a possible shot at the 2nd seed, but who knows what stupid games they'll drop along the way.

[100%duncan]

yeah

[dirkdirkastan]

If by less than a month, you meant a month and two days, then yes, let's talk platyoffs.

[Koolaid_Man]

Big Homie Luva - when u get a chance check your Message

[VBM]

@ New Orleans
vs 76ers
@ Phoenix
@ Sacramento
vs Pacers

@ Cleveland
@ Boston
vs Hornets
vs Jazz
@ Utah

vs L.A. Lakers
vs Grizzlies
vs Suns
@ Golden State
@ L.A. Lakers

@ Sacramento
vs L.A. Lakers
vs Cavaliers
vs Trail Blazers
@ Phoenix
@ Golden State

*sure-fire losses bolded

Throw in 3-5 losses based on bad games/Pop resting players, and I see the Spurs going somewhere around 14-7 the rest of the way to lock in the 2nd seed (unless OKC completely chokes near the end).

[Warlord23]

From SA's perspective, the #1 seed is not realistically attainable, so the key is to stay ahead of LAL for the #2 seed.

In DD's (somewhat optimistic) analysis, he has the Lakers going 15-3 or 14-4 down the stretch. Given that LAL plays .400 basketball on the road and they have 8 road games left, I think 15-3 is almost certainly not happening, 14-4 is possible but not likely. I think they go 13-5 or worse, finishing no better than 43-23 overall.

To stay ahead, SA either needs to finish 44-22, or tie them at 43-23 with the tiebreaker. I'll be a bit pessimistic and agree that SA loses 2 of 3 to the Lakers, so 44-22 is their target. SA has 10 games left at home and 11 on the road. Of the home games, I see them splitting the 2 games with LAL. The remaining 8 home games are: PHI*, IND, NOH, UTA, MEM*, PHO, CLE, POR*. The 3 games marked with an * are the back-end of a back-to-back (or one of the last 2 in a 3-in-a-row stretch). Given that the Spurs have only lost 4 times at home all season, I predict either an 8-2 or 9-1 record at home down the stretch.

On the road, they play at NOH*, PHO, SAC*, CLE, BOS*, UTA*, GS, LAL*, SAC*, PHO, GS*. Not too many top-tier teams, but 6 back-to-back (or 3-in-a-row) scenarios. The recently added depth gives the Spurs a lot of flexibility though. I see the Spurs going at least 6-5 in these 11 road games.

So the Spurs should go 14-7 or 15-6 in these 21 games, giving them either 45-21 or 44-22, which should be enough for the #2 seed. It will be close though, and a couple of letdowns or minor injuries or LA overachieving could see the Lakers taking the 2 seed. Out of these 2 teams, SA needs the home court advantage more, so I expect an evenly balanced series if they meet up with the Spurs having HCA.

[Hoops Czar]

The Spurs defense still leaves a lot to be desired. I could easily see them losing both games in Phoenix and atleast one in Sacramento.

[Mugen]

1. health






2. seeding/matchups

[Giuseppe]

^Yep, unless SpursFan has utopia they toss the towel.

Chickenshits.

[Mugen]

okay grandpa

[pass1st]

I don't think seeding matters in the west.

[Giuseppe]

okay grandpa

Not yet.:lol

[DPG21920]

I really hope LA & DaL play in the frets rest round.

[Ryan Fitzpatrick]

If by less than a month, you meant a month and two days, then yes, let's talk platyoffs.

Oh, hi. Yeah, I took a guess when the playoffs started and was off. The difference is you actually looked it up and got the date wrong.:lol Playoffs start on the 28th.


@ New Orleans
vs 76ers
@ Phoenix
@ Sacramento
vs Pacers

@ Cleveland
@ Boston
vs Hornets
vs Jazz
@ Utah

vs L.A. Lakers
vs Grizzlies
vs Suns
@ Golden State
@ L.A. Lakers

@ Sacramento
vs L.A. Lakers
vs Cavaliers
vs Trail Blazers
@ Phoenix
@ Golden State

*sure-fire losses bolded

Throw in 3-5 losses based on bad games/Pop resting players, and I see the Spurs going somewhere around 14-7 the rest of the way to lock in the 2nd seed (unless OKC completely chokes near the end).

Wow, SA's got a pretty favorable schedule. I think you're being cautiously pessimistic about their remaining games, though...I don't see LA catching them now.


From SA's perspective, the #1 seed is not realistically attainable, so the key is to stay ahead of LAL for the #2 seed.

In DD's (somewhat optimistic) analysis, he has the Lakers going 15-3 or 14-4 down the stretch. Given that LAL plays .400 basketball on the road and they have 8 road games left, I think 15-3 is almost certainly not happening, 14-4 is possible but not likely. I think they go 13-5 or worse, finishing no better than 43-23 overall.

To stay ahead, SA either needs to finish 44-22, or tie them at 43-23 with the tiebreaker. I'll be a bit pessimistic and agree that SA loses 2 of 3 to the Lakers, so 44-22 is their target. SA has 10 games left at home and 11 on the road. Of the home games, I see them splitting the 2 games with LAL. The remaining 8 home games are: PHI*, IND, NOH, UTA, MEM*, PHO, CLE, POR*. The 3 games marked with an * are the back-end of a back-to-back (or one of the last 2 in a 3-in-a-row stretch). Given that the Spurs have only lost 4 times at home all season, I predict either an 8-2 or 9-1 record at home down the stretch.

On the road, they play at NOH*, PHO, SAC*, CLE, BOS*, UTA*, GS, LAL*, SAC*, PHO, GS*. Not too many top-tier teams, but 6 back-to-back (or 3-in-a-row) scenarios. The recently added depth gives the Spurs a lot of flexibility though. I see the Spurs going at least 6-5 in these 11 road games.

So the Spurs should go 14-7 or 15-6 in these 21 games, giving them either 45-21 or 44-22, which should be enough for the #2 seed. It will be close though, and a couple of letdowns or minor injuries or LA overachieving could see the Lakers taking the 2 seed. Out of these 2 teams, SA needs the home court advantage more, so I expect an evenly balanced series if they meet up with the Spurs having HCA.

Fair points all around, and yes--I am being optimistic--but let's look at their 8 roadies left: @GSW(x2), @SAC, @NOH, @LAC(basically a home game), @PHX, @SAS(x2). LAL is good enough at home to finish 9-1 (w/ their only loss to OKC)...they play great at Staples, and have lost 3 games at home all year by a combined 7 pts (should've won all 3).

On the road, it's been a different story, but they've improved since the ASB. Their 3 road losses were all to teams they had sizable 2nd half leads on. I think their only losses out of those 8 will be @PHX and possibly both Spurs road games. I think 14-4 is attainable, but we'll see...


I don't think seeding matters in the west.

Disagree this year. As Warlord said, SA definitely needs the HCA in the 2nd round matchup against LA. W/o it they're fucked. Also, as currently seeded we would dodge our worst possible matchup (OKC) until the WCF--and after Memphis has had a crack at them in the WCSF.

[dirkdirkastan]

Oh, hi. Yeah, I took a guess when the playoffs started and was off. The difference is you actually looked it up and got the date wrong.:lol Playoffs start on the 28th.

My educated guess was better than yours. Now, who actually had to look it up?

[Ryan Fitzpatrick]

My educated guess was better than yours. Now, who actually had to look it up?

Yes, your "educated guess" led you to say "a month and 2 days" just off the top of your head.:lmao

You looked it up and you got it wrong. Lying about it now only makes it worse.

[Mugen]

Disagree this year. As Warlord said, SA definitely needs the HCA in the 2nd round matchup against LA. W/o it they're fucked. Also, as currently seeded we would dodge our worst possible matchup (OKC) until the WCF--and after Memphis has had a crack at them in the WCSF.

HCA is only imperative for the Lakers, DD. the other top teams in the West aren't batting .400 on the road :lol

[Ryan Fitzpatrick]

HCA is only imperative for the Lakers, DD. the other top teams in the West aren't batting .400 on the road :lol

What was the Spurs' road record last year, b? What was Memphis'?:lol

It's all about the style of play in the playoffs, and LAL is built for the playoffs. They're the best rebounding team and one of the best defensive teams. The Spurs are at a disadvantage against LA, so they need every other advantage (HCA) they can get.

[dirkdirkastan]

Yes, your "educated guess" led you to say "a month and 2 days" just off the top of your head.:lmao

You looked it up and you got it wrong. Lying about it now only makes it worse.

You Bill fans are all alike, constantly circling the wagon. :lol one of us looked it up. You had to look it up to prove me wrong, but yet, you couldn't do the right thing and look it up before you started this thread. Go figure.

[Ryan Fitzpatrick]

You Bill fans are all alike, constantly circling the wagon. :lol one of us looked it up. You had to look it up to prove me wrong, but yet, you couldn't do the right thing and look it up before you started this thread. Go figure.

Hey, it's not my fault you don't know how to execute a burn:lol

Here's what you should've said for that super sick burn: "If by less than a month, you meant more than a month, you'd be right."

You see? That's simple (only need to change one word of my sentence), and the burn's delivered. Instead, you actually looked it up to be exact with the date and got it wrong. I'm glad I could be of help to you.:lol

[Mugen]

What was the Spurs' road record last year, b? What was Memphis'?:lol

It's all about the style of play in the playoffs, and LAL is built for the playoffs. They're the best rebounding team and one of the best defensive teams. The Spurs are at a disadvantage against LA, so they need every other advantage (HCA) they can get.


As long as Mike Brown is the coach and Kirby is shooting 25+, i like the Spurs chances against LA. Spurs are just as good at home and a better road team.

Like i said, if the Spurs are healthy, i like their chances against anybody i the West. It's a big IF :lol

[Mugen]

Yeah they are not, but so are the other contending teams

Memphis: 9-13 (.409)
Clippers: 11-13 (.458)
Dallas 9-14 (.391)
Utah 7-16 (.304)
Houston 8-16 (.333)

i was referring to the top teams (OKC, SA).

[Giuseppe]

Like i said, if the Spurs are healthy

Only pussies & assholes play the injury card.

[Giuseppe]

^ Now go back and fuck your mother some more.

[Mugen]

Only pussies & assholes play the injury card.

We got it, grandpa.

[Giuseppe]

We got it, grandpa.

Just checkin' assholes.