Most Difficult Playoff Matchups for the Spurs

[timvp]

The 2012 NBA Playoffs are already around the corner. A month from today, the regular season ends. Which Western Conference teams do I hope the Spurs avoid in the playoffs? IMO, the top five teams below are pretty much set in stone.

1. Los Angeles Lakers
The Spurs struggle with bigmen with length who can score in the paint. The Lakers have a pair of bigs who definitely fit that description. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili depend on finishing in the paint, and that's not easy to do against the Lakers. There's no Bruce Bowen to sic on Kobe Bryant. Ramon Sessions is also a huge upgrade over the corpse of Derek Fisher. And though the Spurs are much deeper than the Lakers, depth becomes much less important in the postseason. Of all the matchups out West, this is by far the most unfavorable for the Spurs.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Despite the fact that the Spurs have played the Thunder well during the regular season recently, the amount of talent on OKC's roster simply cannot be ignored. When the pace slows and the game begins to hinge on one-on-one situations, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will be extremely tough to slow down. Add in James Harden (the closest thing in the NBA to the next Manu Ginobili), the athletic shotblocking nightmare that is Serge Ibaka, and their beaucoup solid role players, it's safe to say the Thunder won't be going down without a fight.

3. Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs have experienced their dry spells this season but I shouldn't have to quote Rudy T to explain why it would be unwise to underestimate Dallas. Dirk Nowitzki hasn't done well against the Spurs this season but come playoff time, he's still the most intimidating offensive force in the West. Defensively, the Mavs are the most well-coached squad in the conference and they'd be able to take the Spurs out of their comfort zones much better than any other team in this half of the bracket.

4. Memphis Grizzlies
With Zach Randolph rounding into shape and Marc Gasol enjoying his first All-Star campaign, it's no secret that duo creates matchup problems for San Antonio. If Rudy Gay can play at the top of his game while complementing their big boys in the middle, the Grizzlies might move all the way up to No. 2 on this list. Fortunately, it doesn't appear as if these Grizzlies have the chemistry of last year's Grizzlies. Then again, there's still another month for Memphis to rediscover that magic.

5. Los Angeles Clippers
They're horrible coached. Their management still doesn't have a clue. Donald Sterling is still Donald Sterling. That said, the duo of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin is potentially as dangerous as any duo in the West. If Vinny Del Negro can accidentally stumble into a winning formula, the Clippers have the necessary talent to surprise any team in the West.

6. Denver Nuggets
Let's be honest: The Spurs are an offensive team this year. They aren't going to be winning anything if they solely depend on their defense to carry the load. With that in mind, the Nuggets are one of the few teams in the West that can claim their offense is better. If the Spurs get in a shootout with these guys, Denver has the weaponry to give San Antonio a run for their playoff lives.

7. Phoenix Suns
A couple weeks ago, it appeared as if the Suns were dead. However, following a 12-19 start, the Suns have won 13 of their previous 18 games heading into Tuesday's showdown in Phoenix. Their offense has really picked it up and the ageless Steve Nash shows few signs of slowing down. And I'm not even going to mention the sweep.

8. Utah Jazz
The Jazz have a ton of bigmen depth -- highlighted by Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson -- plus a pair of guards who have defended Tony Parker well in the past in Devin Harris and Earl Watson. If one of their swingmen emerges as anything resembling a star (watch out for Alec Burks), they could give San Antonio a real test.

9. Houston Rockets
The Rockets and Spurs always play close games. Always. It's not exactly a rivalry but with solid players such as Kyle Lowry, Kevin Martin and that Argentine guy, it wouldn't be an easy series for San Antonio.

10. Minnesota Timberwolves
The loss of Ricky Rubio really hurts the T'Wolves' chances of beating the Spurs in the playoffs. But Kevin Love is a beast, Rick Adelman is a very good coach and there are a handful of players on that roster with All-Star potential. We've already seen what happens when this young, talented bunch gets rolling in Minnesota.

[DBMethos]

That's about how I'd rank them, possibly swapping the Mavs and Grizz depending on how this last month plays out.

[Texas_Ranger]

Houston, Dallas, Oklahoma would be nice.

Lowry is probably out for the season and even if he comes back in the playoffs he won't play on an all-star level cause of his infection.

To me Dallas looks bad, watched a lot of their games and I'm not impressed. I'm scared just of Dirk and Terry on that team, and now with Diaw and Jack even Dirk is not a Superman.

We always play good against OKC. Yes they've got Durant, Westbrook and Harden, but in the playoffs I think they will depend way too much on just the first two guys, and with Wesbrook on their side i like our chances.

Wouldn't mind to get Denver or PHX in the first round. The only team I wouldn't like in the first round is Memphis. I think we can beat them, but it could go 7 games and I don't want to see a 7 game series in the first round. With other teams I say 6 games max.

I just hope our role players like Green, Neal, Leonard and even Bonner will step up in the playoffs and won't play like pussies. I also hope Pop won't play Blair 20 minutes against a team like the Lakers or Memphis, cause then we'll have a big problem.

[Fireball]

Clips/Lakeshow/Thunder

[urunobili]

Alternate question:

What path would we like to see to the finals?

Denver/LAL/OKC/Bulls

[Hoops Czar]

Not sure if OKC belongs ahead of Dallas and Memphis. With OKC, it would be a track meet but with the additions of Jackson and Diaw, I'm pretty sure they can handle them in a 7 game series.

[cheguevara]

1. Memphis - moster frontline, beast perimeter defenders to neutralize our top guns, young, hungry
2. Dallas - they play like absolute animals vs. the spurs
3. Lakers - moster frontline, so-so perimeter defenders, no depth
4. OKC - they don't match up with Spurs too well, but if on a roll, still dangerous

[Mal]

I`d like Houston, Pheonix in 1st round, Clipps in 2nd (but I dont think they win againt LAL or Mem) and OKC in finals.

[Nathan89]

1. Lakers
2. OKC
3. Memphis
4. Dallas-- I don't think Dirk is the "most intimidating offensive force" for us. We have a lot of options for Dirk now. To me Bynum or a healthy Randolph.

[Mugen]

I'd put Memphis #2 right now despite their troubles integrating Z-Bo back in the lineup. Tony Allen is still the best defender in the West and can create a lot of problems for Manu/TP. Their frontline is second only to LA but they have a better coach and better overall depth.

The Lakers still pose the biggest threat to the Spurs because of Bynum/Gasol but i like the Spurs' chances against them for several reasons:
1) No Phil Jackson / Mike Brown: Phil has historically owned Pop the last decade. Pop always seemed to have a mental block when coaching against PJ. That shouldn't be an issue with Mike Brown.
2) No Odom: Odom has always been one of the toughest matchups for the Spurs. He's played horrible this year but the absence of a 2008-2011 Lamar Odom really helps the Spurs.
3) Lack of Outside Shooting: They don't have a reliable 3point threat meaning Pop might be more willing to double the post to neutralize Bynum/Gasol.I don't think the Lakers have anybody that can consistently make opponents pay for doubling their bigs.
4) Depth: As you said, it becomes less of an issue in the playoffs but the Lakers realistically have only 4 or 5 players that are legit NBA players. Their bench is abysmal meaning in a long, drawn out series, it could eventually take its toll on their starters.
5) Defending Kobe: Last year, i didn't think the spurs had a reliable defender they could put on Kobe and not have to help. With Kobe in full on chuck mode this season and the addition of Kawhi/Jack/Green, i think the Spurs are more than fully capable of defending Bryant very well.

I like a healthy Spurs team chances against any of the above teams, tbh. I just don't know if they could go through 2 out of those top 5 teams and still have enough left in the tank to beat Miami or Chicago....

[Bruno]

Unless Lakers start losing a lot of games, Spurs and Lakers will get the 2nd/3rd seed which they will face in the secodn round if they advance.

The key will be to counter their frontcourt of Gasol/Bynum. Spurs could either try to counter that size with Duncan/Splitter or trying to move Gasol to the perimeter to open the paint by using a lot of Diaw/Bonner at the PF spot. I guess Pop will go with the secodn option.

When you consider that:
- Lakers will likely be on Spurs playoffs' road.
- The Bynum/Gasol frontcourt is damn good and tall especially with Bynum being great since the ASB.
- Splitter is having a lot of minor injuries.
It let me think that Spurs could sign as 15th player a random 7 footer with Lakers matchup in sight. Spurs could go with signing a prospect or with signing nobody to save some money but if they go with someone to help them this year, a defensive minded big center is what will help them more.

[Robz4000]

Lets wait and see how the Spurs stack up against the Lakers before declaring them the worst match-up. I'm not convinced Memphis is still a legitimate threat this year, but there is a month and one more game against them to go. As of now I'd put OKC at #1, Dallas at #2, LAL/Memphis at #3, and Houston/Denver at #4. Spurs can and would beat the rest of the playoff contenders in 5 games max.

[DesignatedT]

Disagree on 3. Dallas. I think we match up very well against them. Also, throw in all the different looks we have now to throw on Dirk with Leonard, Jax, and Diaw and I like our chances a lot against that squad.

[will_spurs]

I can't give a specific order but I can group teams in 3 categories :
- teams that are going to be tough to beat: Lakers, Dallas, Memphis
- teams that aren't going to go down easily but that we should be able to manage in a 7-game series: OKC, Clippers, Denver
- teams that don't really stand a chance: all the others

First of all I disagree about the bench (and depth in general) being minimized in the playoffs. Quite to the contrary, a deeper bench contributes in several ways:
- helps get over whichever minor injuries are bound to happen
- helps be fresher, dealing with games in short succession, travel, etc.
- helps with match-ups, giving more flexibility and avoiding being severely outmatched

There's no way one can look at last year's situation and think it wouldn't have been different with the deeper/more experienced bench we have now compared to RJ and Hill.

Lakers have always been tough, but Phil not being there makes a world of difference in my view. In the end the Lakers are a highly dysfunctional team and the tempering forces (Phil, Fisher) are gone, which gives Kobe the leeway he needs to turn the team into the Kobe show... something that never, ever worked. On top of that Mike Brown remembers the last time he face the Spurs. Can't be a pleasant memory, being schooled like that.

Dallas... I think we're roughly 50-50 in terms of playoffs disappointments. Dirk is dangerous. Anybody underestimating them is stupid.

Memphis, I think we all remember last year. Some key components are gone, but as long as Gasol-ZBo can control the paint, we're toast. Hopefully Splitter (and to a lesser extent, Diaw) can help a lot more than last year. Parker isn't the same player either, Manu might well be healthy, Duncan looks younger than ever... this should be enough.

OKC, Denver and the Clippers: they can put up a fight, but I'm confident they can't go the full length.

[freetiago]

would like to see
Phoenix
Memphis
LA

theme of playoffs would be redemption
and L.A just so we could shit on them again

[Mugen]

I'd much rather play Dallas than Memphis or the Thunder, tbh.

[T Park]

Other than Randolph and Gasol, the Spurs can defend the rest of Memphis's team.

Don't get the panic this year.

[MmP]

"that Argentine guy"

:lol

[cheguevara]

Other than Randolph and Gasol, the Spurs can defend the rest of Memphis's team.

Don't get the panic this year.

the problem is Memphis players can defend our entire team. Something OKC, Lakers even Dallas can't

[MmP]

Bring the grizz for 1st round, I want revenge

[Robz4000]

would like to see
Phoenix
Memphis
LA

theme of playoffs would be redemption
and L.A just so we could shit on them again
Instead of LA it should be Dallas to make it a true redemption theme. Also, put it in the order of MEM, PHX, and DAL.

[ElNono]

My ranking:

1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Dallas Mavericks
3. Los Angeles Lakers
4. Memphis Grizzlies

[BillMc]

All very interesting. How do y'all think we would do against either the Heat or Bulls if we were to get out of the West?

I actually fear Chicago more than Miami, though both would be tough.

[cheguevara]

I'd rather see Miami fail early and we face a 1st time finalist Chicago

this year Miami in the finals would be tough,

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Its threads like this that make me sad the regular season is ending. Cuz we most likely are going to get buzzsawed in round one like last year

[will_spurs]

I'd rather face Chicago, if only because I don't see Lebron losing for the 3rd time in his 3rd trip to the Finals. We can laugh at this guy and his sidekicks in Miami all we want, at some point the stars are going to align for Miami and I'd rather not be facing them when it happens. It could get really, really ugly.

[Cry Havoc]

Really surprised to see LA at #1 considering they have no one outside of Bynum and Barnes (when his head is in the game) who's capable of guarding a silk shirt. Manu, Tony, hell even Buckets would have a field day with that defense. Sessions is probably worse at defending than Fisher, he's an offensive PG personified. His help defense and decision making (this goes for offense too at times) are simply atrocious. Tony Parker would go off on him and probably get Gasol or Bynum in foul trouble in 3-5 games out of the series. Manu could average 25 a game if his three is dropping.

This is all to say nothing of the fact that the Lakers bench is averaging, what, ~15 points per game since Sessions came to LAL, if that? The Spurs have one of the deepest teams in the league, maybe even deeper than Chicago. If ONE starter gets hurt or gets in foul trouble, they're probably losing the game by default.

Memphis is the only team out West I could see giving us fits beyond the obvious (OKC).

[bayareaspursfan]

So basically every team on the west besides the kings and the warriors i guess lol

[Rummpd]

Odom was the key difference maker vs the Spurs and while Bynum is better I do not think the loss of Odom and a savy vet in Fisher is made up by Sessons. Spurs would take LAL in a tough series - Memphis is the one team I do not want the Spurs to face again if at all possible. Totally agree with Cry Havoc above as I wrote this without seeing his brilliant post.

[bigfan]

I have to say if we are healthy we can handle any team out there. Add to that we have by far the best coach in the league. Weve got to be healthy though.

[TimmehC]

Memphis is trouble, and I want no part of them. They're long at every position, and play good defense.

The Lakers' starting bigs are trouble, but they have nothing beyond that to really torment us with.

OKC is a nightmare to defend against, but thankfully their own defense is highly suspect, and vulnerable to teams with good ball movement(i.e. Spurs).

[z0sa]

LA Lakers dude? Seriously? I would love for the Spurs to play them. Spurs will have homecourt and PJ is no longer at the helm, Mike Brown is. Not saying any team out west will be a cakewalk, but LAL is one of the team's I'd enjoy Spurs playing. And possibly crushing should Mantits or Pau get in foul trouble while Kobe plays hero.

[jeebus]

With Zach Randolph rounding into shape

I see what you did there.

[DAF86]

Against the Lakers in the playoffs Pop should try to match up Tim and Splitter's minutes with Pau and Bynum's, imo. That means starting Tiago.

[Mugen]

Unless Lakers start losing a lot of games, Spurs and Lakers will get the 2nd/3rd seed which they will face in the secodn round if they advance.

The key will be to counter their frontcourt of Gasol/Bynum. Spurs could either try to counter that size with Duncan/Splitter or trying to move Gasol to the perimeter to open the paint by using a lot of Diaw/Bonner at the PF spot. I guess Pop will go with the secodn option.

When you consider that:
- Lakers will likely be on Spurs playoffs' road.
- The Bynum/Gasol frontcourt is damn good and tall especially with Bynum being great since the ASB.
- Splitter is having a lot of minor injuries.
It let me think that Spurs could sign as 15th player a random 7 footer with Lakers matchup in sight. Spurs could go with signing a prospect or with signing nobody to save some money but if they go with someone to help them this year, a defensive minded big center is what will help them more.

Bruno, how has Boris defended Pau in the past? Have they played a lot?

To me, Pau would be the biggest x-factor in a potential Laker series as he's still the most skilled bigman in the league and is a better overall passer/decision maker than Bynum. I think Tiago would do a pretty good job but Boris has been pretty impressive with his post D so far.

[Seventyniner]

Anyone, anywhere. The Mavs had the toughest 2nd round draw of anyone last year, going up against PJ and the 2-time defending champs. Did they cower in the corner? No, they just went out and swept the Lakers right out of the playoffs.

[Old School 44]

I'd put Lakers 3rd or 4th. Although they have great offensive bigs, I just can't see Kobe defering to Gasol & Bynum in the playoffs. Running Jack, Leonard and Green at Kobe will drive him crazy and he'll take it personal and forget everyone else. He will probably still post big numbers, but with volume shooting at a low percentage.

1. OKC
2. Mavs
3. Lakers/Memphis
4. Memphis/Lakers

[spursince#99]

I can't believe my eyes. Are you serious? This is unconstitutional. Asinine. Egregious. There's NO way the "Denver Nuggets" have more fire power than us first off. If anything, OKC should be fourth considering how well we match up with them, and their 2 big guns could not hold up. Although I think Dallas should be number 3, I don't see us having to go 7 games with them. Our deepest fear should still be the Memphis Grizzlies as they're still capable of taking us out. The Lakers would come second with their lack of depth which I believe is very much needed in the playoffs. If we have to go through both Memphis and L.A we won't make it out of the West. However, that doesn't seem likely as Memphis would have to drop to 7 or 8 seed which is highly unlikely. Both Memphis and L.A are bad match ups but the problem is I don't know which I'd rather us play in a series. I would say L.A because of their insane lack of depth, but they still have arguably the best player in the league as well as the best closer. Then there's Memphis who could arguably take L.A in a 7 game series. Hopefully they wind up playing one another and tearing one another to pieces before one gets to us, while we watch as our series wouldn't go as long. Unless we catch OKC we'd inevitably have to play one, and that's our main problem. It'd be great if they beat each other senseless.

[spursince#99]

I'd put Lakers 3rd or 4th. Although they have great offensive bigs, I just can't see Kobe defering to Gasol & Bynum in the playoffs. Running Jack, Leonard and Green at Kobe will drive him crazy and he'll take it personal and forget everyone else. He will probably still post big numbers, but with volume shooting at a low percentage.

1. OKC
2. Mavs
3. Lakers/Memphis
4. Memphis/Lakers

There's no way OKC is number 1 dude. Then Dallas number 2? Lol

[spursince#99]

memphis is trouble, and i want no part of them. They're long at every position, and play good defense.

The lakers' starting bigs are trouble, but they have nothing beyond that to really torment us with.

Okc is a nightmare to defend against, but thankfully their own defense is highly suspect, and vulnerable to teams with good ball movement(i.e. Spurs).

this!!!!

[spursince#99]

really surprised to see la at #1 considering they have no one outside of bynum and barnes (when his head is in the game) who's capable of guarding a silk shirt. Manu, tony, hell even buckets would have a field day with that defense. Sessions is probably worse at defending than fisher, he's an offensive pg personified. His help defense and decision making (this goes for offense too at times) are simply atrocious. Tony parker would go off on him and probably get gasol or bynum in foul trouble in 3-5 games out of the series. Manu could average 25 a game if his three is dropping.

This is all to say nothing of the fact that the lakers bench is averaging, what, ~15 points per game since sessions came to lal, if that? The spurs have one of the deepest teams in the league, maybe even deeper than chicago. If one starter gets hurt or gets in foul trouble, they're probably losing the game by default.

Memphis is the only team out west i could see giving us fits beyond the obvious (okc).


+1

[timvp]

Lets wait and see how the Spurs stack up against the Lakers before declaring them the worst match-up.Eh, I'm not going to put much stock in regular season games. In the regular season, the Spurs should do well against them due to their much superior depth.


First of all I disagree about the bench (and depth in general) being minimized in the playoffs. Quite to the contrary, a deeper bench contributes in several waysThe 1999 Spurs and the 2005 Spurs could only go about seven players deep, yet both of those teams would sweep the 2012 Spurs.

[spursince#99]

The maximum is 12 deep in the playoffs with up to 3 inactive

[Bruno]

Bruno, how has Boris defended Pau in the past? Have they played a lot?

To me, Pau would be the biggest x-factor in a potential Laker series as he's still the most skilled bigman in the league and is a better overall passer/decision maker than Bynum. I think Tiago would do a pretty good job but Boris has been pretty impressive with his post D so far.

I don't remember Diaw defending Pau with their respective national teams. Against the Gasols, Naoh was on Pau and Diaw was on Marc.

I don't think Diaw will do well against Pau. He is just too skilled and big for him. IMO, Diaw would be better against Bynum than against Gasol.

[temujin]

:clap
Really surprised to see LA at #1 considering they have no one outside of Bynum and Barnes (when his head is in the game) who's capable of guarding a silk shirt. Manu, Tony, hell even Buckets would have a field day with that defense. Sessions is probably worse at defending than Fisher, he's an offensive PG personified. His help defense and decision making (this goes for offense too at times) are simply atrocious. Tony Parker would go off on him and probably get Gasol or Bynum in foul trouble in 3-5 games out of the series. Manu could average 25 a game if his three is dropping.

This is all to say nothing of the fact that the Lakers bench is averaging, what, ~15 points per game since Sessions came to LAL, if that? The Spurs have one of the deepest teams in the league, maybe even deeper than Chicago. If ONE starter gets hurt or gets in foul trouble, they're probably losing the game by default.

Memphis is the only team out West I could see giving us fits beyond the obvious (OKC).
:clap

Memphis to be avoided under ALL circumstances.

To the excellent points raised, I will add that the Paul-to-Clippers-for-nothing trade illustrates very well which is the LA horse Stern is betting on.
The fouls on Bynum/Gasol you mention will still have to called, and I get the feeling that the Lakers will NOT get their usual share of Joey Crawfords in key PO games this year.
Or if they do, he'll be calling a very different type of ball game.

OKC and the Clippers are loaded with talent, but their coaches -yes, that includes Brooks- are more than suspect, in my opinion.
Dallas has a great coach but they are missing important pieces from last year, and their best folks are just one older.

All other teams, seriously, will be just happy to reach the PO, and likely exausted for their late runs in the RS.

[trypldubl]

1. Thunder
2. Lakers
3. Grizz
4. Mavs


I'd rather see Miami fail early and we face a 1st time finalist Chicago

this year Miami in the finals would be tough,


Totally agree but you know if the Spurs face the Bulls then everyone will be rooting for the Bulls. If they played the Heat, then we will have the big ratings that we always seems to miss in the finals and most other cities will be rooting for us to win. Not as much as last year but the Heat hate is still pretty strong.

Anyone else feel like we need to go through the Lakers this playoffs to tie up the loose ends of past playoff eliminations. Not to mention shutting some Laker fans up.

[spursince#99]

I don't remember Diaw defending Pau with their respective national teams. Against the Gasols, Naoh was on Pau and Diaw was on Marc.

I don't think Diaw will do well against Pau. He is just too skilled and big for him. IMO, Diaw would be better against Bynum than against Gasol.

I disagree as Diaw could get physical with Pau and disrupt him. However, that would be ineffective against Bynum.

[timvp]

Really surprised to see LA at #1 considering they have no one outside of Bynum and Barnes (when his head is in the game) who's capable of guarding a silk shirt.Kobe's a good defender ... not All-Defense level like he's gifted each season but he's solid. Gasol would be the second best defender if he was on the Spurs. Artest sucks on offense these days but he can still defend.


Manu, Tony, hell even Buckets would have a field day with that defense. Manu and Tony historically thrive against the smaller frontlines. Getting into the lane and finishes against Bynum and Gasol would not be easy.

And ever since that game Jack hit eight three-pointers against the Lakers in 2003 in the regular season, he's never done much of anything against Kobe and L.A.


Tony Parker would go off on him and probably get Gasol or Bynum in foul trouble in 3-5 games out of the series.I don't remember one game in which Parker has gotten them in foul trouble. Counting on it to happen in 3-5 games out of 7 wouldn't be a viable strategy, tbh.


Manu could average 25 a game if his three is dropping.Even this corpse version of Artest is one of the best Manu stoppers in the league. Last season, Manu averaged nine points on 28% shooting in three games against the Lakers.


This is all to say nothing of the fact that the Lakers bench is averaging, what, ~15 points per game since Sessions came to LAL, if that? The Spurs have one of the deepest teams in the league, maybe even deeper than Chicago.Again, depth hardly matters in the playoffs. The postseason is a battle of the stars. I can't even remember a playoff series the Spurs won in the past due in large part to a depth advantage.

[TD 21]

1. Los Angeles Lakers
The Spurs struggle with bigmen with length who can score in the paint. The Lakers have a pair of bigs who definitely fit that description. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili depend on finishing in the paint, and that's not easy to do against the Lakers. There's no Bruce Bowen to sic on Kobe Bryant. Ramon Sessions is also a huge upgrade over the corpse of Derek Fisher. And though the Spurs are much deeper than the Lakers, depth becomes much less important in the postseason. Of all the matchups out West, this is by far the most unfavorable for the Spurs.

There doesn't need to be, because he's not the same player he was in those days. Between Leonard, Ginobili, Jackson and Green, the Spurs are equipped enough to deal with him. Especially Leonard and Jackson. He won't be able to easily overpower them in the post the way he has many of the Spurs undersized wings over the years. And he's no longer explosive enough to consistently beat them off the dribble.


2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Despite the fact that the Spurs have played the Thunder well during the regular season recently, the amount of talent on OKC's roster simply cannot be ignored. When the pace slows and the game begins to hinge on one-on-one situations, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will be extremely tough to slow down. Add in James Harden (the closest thing in the NBA to the next Manu Ginobili), the athletic shotblocking nightmare that is Serge Ibaka, and their beaucoup solid role players, it's safe to say the Thunder won't be going down without a fight. So will Parker and Ginobili, who are also amongst the best shot creators in the league. The Thunder, despite their considerable physical gifts, are not much better than the Spurs defensively. And considering the defensive upgrades made by the Spurs, they may not even be better period going forward.

I'm tired of everyone anointing this group that's accomplished nothing yet. Because everyone expects them to be multiple champions and perennial contenders, it's as if people have already decided that they are. The Spurs have handled them for a few seasons and if the shoe was on the other foot, no one would act like the Spurs had a chance. Why the Spurs aren't afforded that same respect, I don't know.


3. Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs have experienced their dry spells this season but I shouldn't have to quote Rudy T to explain why it would be unwise to underestimate Dallas. Dirk Nowitzki hasn't done well against the Spurs this season but come playoff time, he's still the most intimidating offensive force in the West. Defensively, the Mavs are the most well-coached squad in the conference and they'd be able to take the Spurs out of their comfort zones much better than any other team in this half of the bracket.It wouldn't be unwise at all. Like the '06 Heat, the Mavs are a team that won a championship, as opposed to a true championship team. Their reign at the top will be short like leprechauns.

Only if you haven't seen Paul in the playoff recently.


6. Denver Nuggets
Let's be honest: The Spurs are an offensive team this year. They aren't going to be winning anything if they solely depend on their defense to carry the load. With that in mind, the Nuggets are one of the few teams in the West that can claim their offense is better. If the Spurs get in a shootout with these guys, Denver has the weaponry to give San Antonio a run for their playoff lives.Not anymore. The Spurs have passed them in offensive efficiency. You could bring up the Nuggets recent injuries, but the Spurs were missing two of their best play makers for the majority of the season. Now, the more important of the two is back and they've added two more to the mix. Plus, their offensive catalysts are legit go-to guys in crunch time. The Nuggets don't have one.


I'd go . . .

1. Lakers
2. Grizzlies
3. Thunder
4. Mavericks
5. Clippers
6. Nuggets
7. Rockets
8. Jazz
9. Timberwolves
10. Suns

[spursince#99]

there doesn't need to be, because he's not the same player he was in those days. Between leonard, ginobili, jackson and green, the spurs are equipped enough to deal with him. Especially leonard and jackson. He won't be able to easily overpower them in the post the way he has many of the spurs undersized wings over the years. And he's no longer explosive enough to consistently beat them off the dribble.

So will parker and ginobili, who are also amongst the best shot creators in the league. The thunder, despite their considerable physical gifts, are not much better than the spurs defensively. And considering the defensive upgrades made by the spurs, they may not even be better period going forward.

I'm tired of everyone anointing this group that's accomplished nothing yet. Because everyone expects them to be multiple champions and perennial contenders, it's as if people have already decided that they are. The spurs have handled them for a few seasons and if the shoe was on the other foot, no one would act like the spurs had a chance. Why the spurs aren't afforded that same respect, i don't know.

It wouldn't be unwise at all. Like the '06 heat, the mavs are a team that won a championship, as opposed to a true championship team. Their reign at the top will be short like leprechauns.

Only if you haven't seen paul in the playoff recently.

Not anymore. The spurs have passed them in offensive efficiency. You could bring up the nuggets recent injuries, but the spurs were missing two of their best play makers for the majority of the season. Now, the more important of the two is back and they've added two more to the mix. Plus, their offensive catalysts are legit go-to guys in crunch time. The nuggets don't have one.


I'd go . . .

1. Lakers
2. Grizzlies
3. Thunder
4. Mavericks
5. Clippers
6. Nuggets
7. Rockets
8. Jazz
9. Timberwolves
10. Suns



+1

[benefactor]

No Phil, no Odom, no Fisher...just a few slow-footed, tall front line players.

Ain't skeered.

I don't agree with the playoffs completely being about stars either. The Lakers don't get big contributions from players like Odom and Fisher and they don't win anything. Phil Jackson is as valuable as a star player to that team.

[JR3]

1. Memphis - moster frontline, beast perimeter defenders to neutralize our top guns, young, hungry
2. Dallas - they play like absolute animals vs. the spurs
3. Lakers - moster frontline, so-so perimeter defenders, no depth
4. OKC - they don't match up with Spurs too well, but if on a roll, still dangerous

This was going to be my list. OKC and the Lakers are interchangable for me.

[Ginobleed20]

I would much rather play the thunder than the grizzlies or the mavs for one simple reason: the thunder simply cannot contain penetration.

In addition, the thunder's lack of a (low-post) post presence really plays right into our hands. Yes, they have offensive firepower, but so do we.

My rankings:
1. lakers
2. grizzlies
3. mavericks
4. thunder

[ElNono]

No Phil, no Odom, no Fisher...just a few slow-footed, tall front line players.

Ain't skeered.

I don't agree with the playoffs completely being about stars either. The Lakers don't get big contributions from players like Odom and Fisher and they don't win anything. Phil Jackson is as valuable as a star player to that team.

This. Plus the starters are simply not going to play 48 mins... and det bench is really, really bad.

[timvp]

1. I shouldn't have posted this during a winning streak. Spurs fans in general are massively overconfident right now. The Spurs have good pieces but there's a LONG way to go before they should be considered the overwhelming favorites most Spurs fans apparently see them as.

2. How can a Spurs fan scoff the Lakers in one breathe and then profess their fear of the Grizzlies in their next breath? Gasol + Bynum >>>>>>>>> Gasol + Randolph. Kobe + Barnes + Artest >>>>>>> Gay + Allen + Mayo. Sessions + Blake = Conley + nothing. It doesn't even make sense. The Lakers are like an upgraded version of the Grizzlies.

3. Spurs fans seem to be underestimating every team outside of Memphis and vastly overrating the Grizzlies. Yeah, the Grizzlies beat the Spurs last season but the 2011 Spurs would have lost to a lot of teams. Ginobili had one arm, Duncan never recovered from his sprained ankle, Parker was playing at like 70% and the role players weren't very good. The Grizzlies, Blazers, Nuggets, Thunder and Lakers would have all beaten the Spurs in the first round. Let's not overrate the Grizzlies just because they were the ones lucky enough to catch a freefalling Spurs squad.

4. What's ironic is the 2011 Spurs were a great match against the Mavs. McDyess was very good against Nowitzki. Hill was very good against Terry. Neither Marion nor Stevenson ever had success defending Ginobili. The Mavs didn't have anyone to defend Parker. I wouldv'e liked S.A.'s chances against Dallas, tbh. Unfortunately, losing McDyess and Hill changes the dynamics of the matchup.

5. The most difficult playoff matchups in the East are:

1. Miami Heat





2. Chicago Bulls




Everyone else

[Cry Havoc]

Kobe's a good defender ... not All-Defense level like he's gifted each season but he's solid. Gasol would be the second best defender if he was on the Spurs. Artest sucks on offense these days but he can still defend.

Reputationally I completely agree with you, but I've watched the Lakers a number of times this season, and they look completely isolated on defense. There is not nearly as much communication as there was in the Phil Jackson era, to say nothing of the fact that they're already experiencing chemistry problems now that Fish has left town.


Manu and Tony historically thrive against the smaller frontlines. Getting into the lane and finishes against Bynum and Gasol would not be easy.


Again in the past that might have been true... but if this guy can do it...

http://trialx.com/curetalk/wp-content/blogs.dir/7/files/2011/07/sports/J_J__Barea-2-small.jpg


And ever since that game Jack hit eight three-pointers against the Lakers in 2003 in the regular season, he's never done much of anything against Kobe and L.A.

I guess we'll figure out which captain jack we get if it comes to that. I'm betting he'll be extra motivated since he just returned to the Spurs, though. Maybe even draw some time on Kobe, who knows.


Even this corpse version of Artest is one of the best Manu stoppers in the league. Last season, Manu averaged nine points on 28% shooting in three games against the Lakers.

All depends on his health. I don't see a 90%+ Manu being stopped by anyone wearing purple and gold.


Again, depth hardly matters in the playoffs. The postseason is a battle of the stars. I can't even remember a playoff series the Spurs won in the past due in large part to a depth advantage.

Traditionally that's the case, but the Mavs were pretty deep last year. Offensively I still mostly agree with that conclusion, but I think being able to put 3-4 guys on Kobe this year (Leonard, Green, Jax, Manu) could give us a lot of defensive versatility. Also don't forget that Kobe is averaging 38+ minutes this year and it looks like it's starting to take a toll on his body and his shooting %. I just feel like there's so much talent on this team that it could override a lot of the prevailing logic in past playoff runs. Even Tim is getting a little hyped up:


When general manager R.C. Buford traded his starting small forward to bring back a prodigal son, signed a promising backup point guard and claimed a slick-passing big man from the free-agent pile — all in an eight-day whirlwind — it sent an unmistakable signal to his locker room.

“We’re trying to win this thing,” team captain Tim Duncan said.

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

I can't see Mike Brown preparing his players for the playoffs as well as PJax did. Also, I wouldn't be shocked if Kobe implodes in the playoffs. Though there is a slight, slight chance he comes to his senses once the regular season ends and he stops worrying about pure scoring and focuses on winning...but that seems like a real long shot at this point.

[benefactor]

Not afraid of the Grizz either tbh. The Spurs are completely different team on the perimeter and can put a quality defensive 7 footer on the floor at all times. If they have a healthy Manu I don't see them dropping more than 2 games against them.

[Cry Havoc]

And agreed. Everyone is overconfident right now. If the team keeps playing this well, we have reason to be, but that means almost nothing come playoff time.


2. How can a Spurs fan scoff the Lakers in one breathe and then profess their fear of the Grizzlies in their next breath? Gasol + Bynum >>>>>>>>> Gasol + Randolph. Kobe + Barnes + Artest >>>>>>> Gay + Allen + Mayo. Sessions + Blake = Conley + nothing. It doesn't even make sense. The Lakers are like an upgraded version of the Grizzlies.

For one reason: No one on the Grizzlies has a usage rate that's approaching 6,000. Exaggeration of course, but Kobe being Kobe is the Lakers biggest weakness. It throws them out of their offense and forces their bigs into passive play. I still don't think at his age Kobe has learned to be patient and trusting with his teammates. If he shifts gears and starts deferring, then by all means the Lakers will be a juggernaut. Until that happens, they're still the Kobe's and still eminently beatable as long as Mike Brown is calling timeouts to set up ISOs for Kobe.

I don't fear the Grizzlies, I just think they play good hard team ball and would be a tough 6 or 7 game out for the Spurs. Probably the same goes for LAL unless they implode again.

[Hoops Czar]

OKC is all flam and no substance. Their entire team revolves around three players on offense and two players on defense. The Spurs are golden behind the arc while OKC is around mid pack defending the three. If OKC cheats, the paint opens up. This style of play is similiar to the nuggets and Suns of the past where they try to wear down the opponent and steal the win at the end. As long as the Spurs don't go in a scoring drought, they should have no problem keeping up with the Thunder.

Edit: I also don't think the Thunder ae a very good half-court offense. And that's what the playoffs are all about.

[therealtruth]

I like the Spurs chances if they use Tiago more and less Bonner/Blair.

[timvp]

Reputationally I completely agree with you, but I've watched the Lakers a number of times this season, and they look completely isolated on defense. There is not nearly as much communication as there was in the Phil Jackson era

I don't enjoy defending the Lakers but last year they were 5th in field goal percentage defense at 43.7%. This year, they're 5th in field goal percentage defense at 42.7%. I don't see much slippage, tbh.

Plus, we Spurs fans have nary room to talk considering how horrible our team's defense has been this year. Fifth at the league at 42.7% looks a whole lot better than 19th in the league at 45.2%.

[NASpurs]

I really hate these threads.

I already can tell it's going to be a mega thread and it's going to be a lot of exchanging between parties and not going anywhere. It's the basketball version of a religion thread. :lol

[mexpurs21]

I would like to see this path: Utah, Dallas, Lakers, Heat

[Cry Havoc]

I don't enjoy defending the Lakers but last year they were 5th in field goal percentage defense at 43.7%. This year, they're 5th in field goal percentage defense at 42.7%. I don't see much slippage, tbh.

Plus, we Spurs fans have nary room to talk considering how horrible our team's defense has been this year. Fifth at the league at 42.7% looks a whole lot better than 19th in the league at 45.2%.

Well said, although you could argue that if the Spurs had been graced with health the entire year the defense would likely be top 10, if not top 5. I think over a 7 game series where Duncan & co. are going to play every night, they are more than capable of playing suffocating defense for a full 48.

[Obstructed_View]

I'm really happy that the Spurs look like they should have the horses to run with anyone they happen to meet. Nice not to have to hope certain teams are banged up or get upset in order to see a path to the title.

[Obstructed_View]

I don't enjoy defending the Lakers but last year they were 5th in field goal percentage defense at 43.7%. This year, they're 5th in field goal percentage defense at 42.7%. I don't see much slippage, tbh.

Plus, we Spurs fans have nary room to talk considering how horrible our team's defense has been this year. Fifth at the league at 42.7% looks a whole lot better than 19th in the league at 45.2%.

Having big gigantic guys with long arms standing in the painted area makes up for a multitude of sins.

[Robz4000]

Eh, I'm not going to put much stock in regular season games. In the regular season, the Spurs should do well against them due to their much superior depth.
It will still give us a measure of how well the Spurs can match up. Last year Memphis gave the SPurs trouble all season, with two close games at home and two blowouts in Memphis. If we'd of paid attention to that we would've known the Spurs were in trouble, especially with Manu hurt.

[T Park]

Not afraid of the Grizz either tbh. The Spurs are completely different team on the perimeter and can put a quality defensive 7 footer on the floor at all times. If they have a healthy Manu I don't see them dropping more than 2 games against them.

This.

That's all I've said :lol

[T Park]

Having big gigantic guys with long arms standing in the painted area makes up for a multitude of sins.

That but the spurs numbers are too heavily weighted with RJ and drek games.
I would like to see from Jackson trade on at the end of the year how it goes.

The lakers front line is tough, but if Tim can be smart and get whoever he's being guarded by in foul trouble, you force them to go to the bench.

[T Park]

Outside of Kobe and their towers, who am I supposed to be scared of? Arrest? Blake?

Their the 2003 Lakers all over again.

[rmt]

1. Lakers - they have a core that's won championships. They have Bynum and Gasol who are skilled post scorers and bigger than everyone on the Spurs. "The (so-called) best coach in the league" still does not play TD and Splitter together and any other big man on the Spurs will get killed by Bynum/Gasol who will be playing 40+/38+ minutes (compared to the paltry 20 mins Pop allows Splitter).

Kobe (if he knows where the big mismatch is, will take a back seat and pound it into the post) - since it won't be the Finals and the Finals MVP won't be on the line, my guess is that this is what he'll do). Since Sessions joined the team, Kobe is shooting less and incorporating Sessions at a fast pace (unlike Pop who is playing around with so many combinations, no combination will be comfortable with each other when crunch time comes).

2. MEM - they will be confident against the Spurs having beaten them last year. They are well balanced and play great defense. The big men situation will be the same as with LA.

3. DAL - always plays well against Spurs - it's like sometimes they can't miss. Odom didn't play the last game. They have championship experience and good coaching. Dirk can get hot.

4. OKC - the best matchup for Spurs - relatively young and inexperienced, questionable coaching, no post scoring so Spurs' weakness (post defense) won't be exploited.

I'm praying LA(3)/MEM(6) in the first round with winner playing OKC (OKC would have to drop to #2) and that OKC comes through to play Spurs and for CHI in the Finals. Spurs cannot beat MIA unless Lebron chokes/Wade get injured.

[T Park]

How the hell would the winner of the lakers Memphis series play OKC?

[Obstructed_View]

That but the spurs numbers are too heavily weighted with RJ and drek games.
I would like to see from Jackson trade on at the end of the year how it goes.

The lakers front line is tough, but if Tim can be smart and get whoever he's being guarded by in foul trouble, you force them to go to the bench.

The Spurs' defensive numbers can go out the window as of about a week ago, I agree. But the Lakers' D is what it is due to those big guys inside.

To your point, Duncan's looked more dominant in the post the last month than he has in at least four years. I'd put this Duncan up against all the Lakers' bigs and expect them to be in foul trouble.

[DPG21920]

Long story short, Spurs fans are over confident right now and have forgotten this team has not won a 2nd round game in a long, long time. People seem to have forgotten that this team is injury prone as well. Yes, the new guys look solid, but there is still ups and downs and not a lot of time to gel or practice.

Fact of the matter is that regardless of whether or not you like a match up or don't, that the gap between the top 5 teams is really nil. It will be about who's healthy and playing well. Match ups will be important, but from a talent and roster holes perspective most teams in the West are pretty even.

Teams with size are bad for the Spurs (Mavs/Lakers/MEM/OKC), Teams with below average talent are good for the Spurs (Hou, UTA, Den, Suns), but in either scenario there are virtually no series where the Spurs are heavily favored or dogs.

I rank the worst match ups as follows, but I say this with the caveat that the Spurs can beat all of these teams if healthy:

1)LA
2)OKC - DAL
3)MEM

The rest would be much more desirable. The absolute best case is the Spurs draw Houston/PHX/UTA/DEN in the first round while LA/DAL end up playing each other in the first as well. In that scenario, they can reach the WCF.

[RodNIc91]

2. How can a Spurs fan scoff the Lakers in one breathe and then profess their fear of the Grizzlies in their next breath? Gasol + Bynum >>>>>>>>> Gasol + Randolph. Kobe + Barnes + Artest >>>>>>> Gay + Allen + Mayo. Sessions + Blake = Conley + nothing. It doesn't even make sense. The Lakers are like an upgraded version of the Grizzlies.




A few thoughts on the laker matchup.
- Jax vs. Barnes/Artest should be a fun matchup
- I think a key matchup should be blake vs. Neal. IMO it can go either way.
- Although Gasol and Bynum are a nightmare, like Elnono said its not like they're gonna play the entire 48 mins the entire series. Besides them their other bigs are scrubs. I can actually envision the bonner-splitter like a great matchup problem for them. And if they go with artest at the 4 our small ball lineups are way better.
- It should be a pretty even matchup so I think the deciding factor should be Pop's adjustments to counter brown's. A couple of strong wins should spark some tussle between him and kobe which should mess their chemistry.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Gasol and Bynum have owned Parker, manu, and Tim in the recent past.

Parkers layups never fall in, Tim gets his post moves stuffed in his face, and when there lakers manage to miss a shot, there's a 70% chance giant Gary Coleman will get an un harassed tip in

[rmt]

That but the spurs numbers are too heavily weighted with RJ and drek games.
I would like to see from Jackson trade on at the end of the year how it goes.

The lakers front line is tough, but if Tim can be smart and get whoever he's being guarded by in foul trouble, you force them to go to the bench.

TD (or Splitter) can also just as easily get into foul trouble and have to go to the bench.

Sorry, edited my post, OKC would have to drop to #2 - possible since SA holds the tie-breaker.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

And I have never really understood why depth can't help in the playoffs.

You have the lakers starters, going against the spurs starters, but shouldn't our bench giving 100% tire the lakers starters going 100% while our starters are resting, ready to come back in and give 100% themselves?

I don't see how an enforcer type shoving the shit outta bynum couldn't help our chances over three course of a series (not that we have an enforcer but hypothetically)

[DPG21920]

Gasol and Bynum have owned Parker, manu, and Tim in the recent past.

Parkers layups never fall in, Tim gets his post moves stuffed in his face, and when there lakers manage to miss a shot, there's a 70% chance giant Gary Coleman will get an un harassed tip in

This is completely true, especially recently. People acting like the Lakers don't have anything beyond the big 3 need to wake up - that doesn't matter when your big 3 is ridiculously good on both ends and can play 42 minutes a game without dying like the Spurs big 3.

There's a reason the Heat went to a final with shit beyond the big 3 - Top tier talent at positions importance is critical.

That isn't to say SA can't beat LA, but do you trust Pop not to play Blair or Bonner really at all? Do the three balls fall against a tough defense? People saying they aren't scared of LA are lying to themselves. There is a reason why even with LA's recent struggles they are the third seed.

[rmt]

A few thoughts on the laker matchup.
- Jax vs. Barnes/Artest should be a fun matchup
- I think a key matchup should be blake vs. Neal. IMO it can go either way.
- Although Gasol and Bynum are a nightmare, like Elnono said its not like they're gonna play the entire 48 mins the entire series. Besides them their other bigs are scrubs. I can actually envision the bonner-splitter like a great matchup problem for them. And if they go with artest at the 4 our small ball lineups are way better.
- It should be a pretty even matchup so I think the deciding factor should be Pop's adjustments to counter brown's. A couple of strong wins should spark some tussle between him and kobe which should mess their chemistry.

Bynum averages 36 mins and Gasol over 37 mins IN THE REGULAR SEASON - they'll probably play close to 40 in the playoffs. The one thing that Pop might try is going with speed (mainly Green and Leonard). Quick athletes give LA problems. Neal probably shouldn't play much vs LA.

[benefactor]

Long story short, Spurs fans are over confident right now and have forgotten this team has not won a 2nd round game in a long, long time. People seem to have forgotten that this team is injury prone as well. Yes, the new guys look solid, but there is still ups and downs and not a lot of time to gel or practice.

Fact of the matter is that regardless of whether or not you like a match up or don't, that the gap between the top 5 teams is really nil. It will be about who's healthy and playing well. Match ups will be important, but from a talent and roster holes perspective most teams in the West are pretty even.

Teams with size are bad for the Spurs (Mavs/Lakers/MEM/OKC), Teams with below average talent are good for the Spurs (Hou, UTA, Den, Suns), but in either scenario there are virtually no series where the Spurs are heavily favored or dogs.

I rank the worst match ups as follows, but I say this with the caveat that the Spurs can beat all of these teams if healthy:

1)LA
2)OKC - DAL
3)MEM

The rest would be much more desirable. The absolute best case is the Spurs draw Houston/PHX/UTA/DEN in the first round while LA/DAL end up playing each other in the first as well. In that scenario, they can reach the WCF.
Good take. I don't think the Spurs will breeze through Memphis/Dallas/LAL or OKC but if healthy, I don't see anything that suggests they can't beat them.

[TD 21]

This is completely true, especially recently. People acting like the Lakers don't have anything beyond the big 3 need to wake up - that doesn't matter when your big 3 is ridiculously good on both ends and can play 42 minutes a game without dying like the Spurs big 3.

There's a reason the Heat went to a final with shit beyond the big 3 - Top tier talent at positions importance is critical.

That isn't to say SA can't beat LA, but do you trust Pop not to play Blair or Bonner really at all? Do the three balls fall against a tough defense? People saying they aren't scared of LA are lying to themselves. There is a reason why even with LA's recent struggles they are the third seed.

The Lakers big three isn't at the same level of the Heat's big three. The Heat have two of the three best players in the league; the Lakers don't have a top six player. And statistically, the Spurs big three is a lot closer to the Lakers big three than they're given credit for. Granted, they play significantly less minutes.

Blair will probably be dropped from the rotation. I agree with Bruno though, that we wouldn't see Duncan and Splitter paired together nearly as much as they should be, which ultimately could be the Spurs undoing in this match-up. Pop will probably go to Bonner and Diaw more, so as to pull Gasol away from the basket and give Parker and Ginobili more space to operate with and less shot blocking to deal with. If he's going to resort to that, I'd rather they just flat out concede the Bynum match-up, which is going to be extremely difficult anyway. Throw Diaw or Bonner on him, provide plenty of help, mix up the coverages and hope that Duncan can keep Gasol in check.

The reason they're the third seed is because, as usual, they've been remarkably healthy. Give the Grizzlies a healthy Randolph and Arthur for an entire season and they're probably the third seed. Give the Clippers a healthy Billups and a legit NBA caliber head coach and they're probably pushing for the third seed.

[therealtruth]

The Spurs' defensive numbers can go out the window as of about a week ago, I agree. But the Lakers' D is what it is due to those big guys inside.

To your point, Duncan's looked more dominant in the post the last month than he has in at least four years. I'd put this Duncan up against all the Lakers' bigs and expect them to be in foul trouble.

The Laker bigs have the luxury of taking turns defending Duncan and then resting on defense with Blair.

[DPG21920]

LA has two top 10 players and a third that is top 15. Their talent is distributed at the most critical positions as well.

[Obstructed_View]

The Laker bigs have the luxury of taking turns defending Duncan and then resting on defense with Blair.

True, though Blair has given them problems when he's moving well in the pick and roll.

[rascal]

1. Lakers Always seem to have the Spurs number and their size advantage gives them a big edge. They are better after their recent acquisitions and take it to a higher level when the playoffs roll around.

2. Mavs These guys have beaten the Spurs before and are the champs. They won't be going down easy. They have enough depth and lenght to cause the Spurs problems.

3. Memphis The Spurs have matchup problems with their size and like the lakers are a big roadblock for the inferior Spur frontline, have a great head coach motivator and the confidence they have beaten the Spurs as recently as last year.

4. OK City Having a great regular season and will come at the Spurs with superior youth and athleticism. Problem is they have never reached the top in the playoffs and the first time climb to the finals is usually the hardest to make.

No one else would beat the Spurs.

[RodNIc91]

Bynum averages 36 mins and Gasol over 37 mins IN THE REGULAR SEASON - they'll probably play close to 40 in the playoffs. The one thing that Pop might try is going with speed (mainly Green and Leonard). Quick athletes give LA problems. Neal probably shouldn't play much vs LA.

Which is why, should we face them, they will probably be considerably tired. And I agree with you, our athleticism and speed can be an advantage but lets not forget how the pace slows down in the playoffs.

[ElNono]

2. How can a Spurs fan scoff the Lakers in one breathe and then profess their fear of the Grizzlies in their next breath? Gasol + Bynum >>>>>>>>> Gasol + Randolph. Kobe + Barnes + Artest >>>>>>> Gay + Allen + Mayo. Sessions + Blake = Conley + nothing. It doesn't even make sense. The Lakers are like an upgraded version of the Grizzlies.

I'm going to disagree here, and before somebody pulls the "winning streak" overconfidence card (ahem), let me tell you this is after seeing both the Spurs and Lakers additions, and mostly how they've been playing all season long.

At this stage, either Gasol is pretty much the same problem. Actually, Pau just hasn't played as well this season, thus the trade rumors.

Bynum is clearly the Laker's best player, but they don't go to him nearly as much as you would think. The reason? He's still a fairly mediocre passer off double-triple teams. He is completely superior to ZBo on both size and strength, but he really isn't as skilled. ZBo has both that mid-range money jumper (which he was draining non-stop last night against Bynum/Pau) and he's a much better passer. So, Bynum definitely has the ability to dominate much more than ZBo, but as far as actually guarding and throwing a double-team their way, I'm not sure ZBo is the easier-to-guard guy. You also would need to add that Drew sometimes gets lazy. Take last night, 4 rebounds in 30+ mins.

The second problem for LA this season is the poor spacing they provide. A lot of teams pack the paint to double-triple Bynum, and largely it pays off. MWP is shooting 26% from downtown for the season (Memphis didn't bother to guard him in the perimeter last night). Kobe? 29% from downtown. Sessions just isn't taking many 3s, instead prefers to drive. Now, Memphis last season wasn't much better (I'm talking Conley, Battier who is now gone and OJ Mayo). But defensively there's just no comparison. Allen is way, way better one on one defender than MWP (MWP is still good roughing up players, but he's terrible running through screen). And Battier was way, way better than Kobe defensively. We're talking large margin here. Kobe these days likes to roam. He will literally leave his guy alone in a corner at the start of the possesion and go try to get a block or steal inside.

The third problem is their bench. As in, they have basically Barnes, who is middle of the road. Blake, Murphy, McRoberts. You can find instances just in the last month where one of the 3 finished with zero points, and the other two didn't even get to double-digits. Memphis just had a much better bench, especially when they had Battier. Their defensive intensity never dwindled.

The fourth problem is their coach. Mike Brown will literally enable Kobe to chuck his way through a game without even looking for his bigs, even though they might be shooting 60%+. The benching last night was an odd development, but since they have no bench, Kobe has to play. They just don't have enough to make up for even his poor shooting.

Their home record is also pretty deceiving. They've won a lot at home, but if you actually watch the games, there are very rarely any blowouts. Every team has a shot at Staples. Outside of Charlotte and Utah very early in the season most games have been within a 10 point margin. And they're a sub .500 team on the road. 10-15 this season.

All in all, I think this Lakers team is actually worse than last season. I think Memphis is also worse. I don't think they'll be a cakewalk or anything, but I think from a matchup perspective, both OKC and Dallas are more difficult foes, despite what the regular season record against us might indicate.

[rmt]

Which is why, should we face them, they will probably be considerably tired. And I agree with you, our athleticism and speed can be an advantage but lets not forget how the pace slows down in the playoffs.

Tired? Bynum's only 24. Lakers' stars are used to playing big minutes. TD averaging only 28 mins. Mark my words, he'll start the playoffs very well and fade as they go on and games are every other day and he has to play 34+ mins/game. Splitter - don't know if Pop thinks he's fragile or something. C'mon a 27 year old can play much more than 20 mins. - what astounds me is that no matter how well Splitter plays (obscene 11-13 or 7-9), Pop plays him so few minutes. And Diaw, Bonner and Blair are going to get abused by Gasol/Bynum.

Pace - even more reason for LA's half court, post offense to be a big mismatch. And Parker ain't scoring vs those 2 big giants. Biggest hope is for the 3pt shooting to be clicking and Green and Leonard to run past Artest and Kobe.

[Latarian Milton]

OKC just a paper tiger tbh niggas always melt down when exposed to more experienced opponents, griz upset em spurs last year but it was a fluke the spurs can beat em any day of the week tbh

[Mugen]

2. How can a Spurs fan scoff the Lakers in one breathe and then profess their fear of the Grizzlies in their next breath? Gasol + Bynum >>>>>>>>> Gasol + Randolph. Kobe + Barnes + Artest >>>>>>> Gay + Allen + Mayo. Sessions + Blake = Conley + nothing. It doesn't even make sense. The Lakers are like an upgraded version of the Grizzlies.



-Blake & "nothing" have been pretty neck and neck all year and I'd probably take Pargo/washed up Arenas over Blake at this point. Sessions has played well but i'd still take Conley over him.

-KB/Artest/Barnes are better defensively but the Spurs would have a much tougher time defending Gay and chasing Mayo around screens then contesting Kobe 20 footers and basically daring Artest to shoot.

i agree with the Lakers still being our toughest matchup but i think you're underrating how terrible their supporting players are outside of their Big 3 and just how much better of a coach Pop is than Mike Brown.

[benefactor]

ElNono...with the fake Lakers goods.

[angelbelow]

This is completely true, especially recently. People acting like the Lakers don't have anything beyond the big 3 need to wake up - that doesn't matter when your big 3 is ridiculously good on both ends and can play 42 minutes a game without dying like the Spurs big 3.

There's a reason the Heat went to a final with shit beyond the big 3 - Top tier talent at positions importance is critical.

That isn't to say SA can't beat LA, but do you trust Pop not to play Blair or Bonner really at all? Do the three balls fall against a tough defense? People saying they aren't scared of LA are lying to themselves. There is a reason why even with LA's recent struggles they are the third seed.

For me, I felt this way about the Lakers all season and have continued to be surprised at their struggles. They have the most versatile and deadly frontcourt and come playoff time, I would rather avoid tackle.

I would prefer to avoid the Mavericks as well but I would be confident if we matched up against them 2nd round. Not having Chandler is a big plus and Nowitski's admitted to having motivation issues. Still, Dirk is deadly and would assume that he gets his despite our recent successes against him.

[pgardn]

I just think about having all these players feeling well and moving well.

1. Ginobili - he still does not have his explosion, shot not confident, a step slow on D

2. Parker- if he cannot penetrate we lose a huge part of our offense. He was definitely faster last night against the sixers than against the Hornets

3. Duncan- the only guy that truly guards the rim on this team. Our only reliable inside scorer.

4. Splitter - absolutely necessary against the bigger teams Mem. and LA

4. Leonard- His knack for grabbing lose balls and scoring, as well as getting his hands on everything. He has obviously stayed the healthiest and must continue

5. Neal - we need his multifaceted ways of scoring when Parker and Gino go dead.

6. Green and or Jackson. We need the longer D and attitude on the perimeter.

7. Blair- I like having the big body to pick up junk baskets.

Past this we dont have to be at full strength. Diaw... I just dont know.

Thats 8 or 9 for the playoffs.

Would like to see Memphis meet the Lakers. OKC meet Dallas. Of course this might be next to impossible, but it my take a lot out of these teams which i see as our toughest.

Biggest worry right now: Ginobili... its just not back.

[reckless05]

1) Lakers- the Twin towers and Sessions is fast enough to defend parker and Kobe always enjoys playing with the Spurs.
2) OKC - Durant. I hope Leonard or Jackson can at least contain him

im not scared of Memphis, i wish they have memphis in the first round. It will be the other way around this time. But I hope everybody i will be healthy when the time comes.

[therealtruth]

Tired? Bynum's only 24. Lakers' stars are used to playing big minutes. TD averaging only 28 mins. Mark my words, he'll start the playoffs very well and fade as they go on and games are every other day and he has to play 34+ mins/game. Splitter - don't know if Pop thinks he's fragile or something. C'mon a 27 year old can play much more than 20 mins. - what astounds me is that no matter how well Splitter plays (obscene 11-13 or 7-9), Pop plays him so few minutes. And Diaw, Bonner and Blair are going to get abused by Gasol/Bynum.

Pace - even more reason for LA's half court, post offense to be a big mismatch. And Parker ain't scoring vs those 2 big giants. Biggest hope is for the 3pt shooting to be clicking and Green and Leonard to run past Artest and Kobe.

I've been waiting to see the benefit of playing less minutes in the regular season. Maybe this is the year it happens.

[100%duncan]

I would like it like this:
1st round-Utah
2nd round- Mavs(with okc and lal beating each other up)
3rd round- OKC, just like last year, OKC will crumble under pressure
Finals- Nobody beats the SPURS in an NBA final

[HarlemHeat37]

1. Health..Spurs have been hit with injuries, all year, and injuries to Ginobili, Duncan or Parker are always realistic possibilities in the playoffs, which would be crippling..

2. Pop's rotations..particularly in the frontcourt..it'll dictate the Spurs success IMO..

3. OKC..Spurs have matched up well against them, but don't underestimate the impact the refs could have for the most protected team in the league..

4. Lakers..Bynum and Gasol are a scary matchup, as most people have already pointed out..

5. Grizzlies..same reasons as last year..

[MmP]

-Still have a long way to see how new guys react to playoffs pressure: Leonard, Green, and full-fledge Splitter.

-Diaw's evolution with team

-SJax finding rythm

-I don't overlook the Laker, ever. Until I see them going back home I'll never underestimate them, they've beaten us badly.

[SpursDynasty85]

I hink Memphis will be the toughest matchup. They will have extreme confidence, BC of last year. Their a team built for the playoffsoffs. Skilled big men. Extremely athletic wings and a proven playoff performer in Tony Allen and Zach Randolph. They are as deep as anyone in the league. Next would be the Lakers. Then OKC. I really do see us neating Dallas. Not having Tyson Chandler will be the real diff for them.

[jesterbobman]

The playoffs, much more than the regular season is about the top 6 players(Starting 5 + 6th man).

http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2010/07/26/a-half-baked-notion-about-the-difference-between-the-regular-season-and-the-playoffs/

I'd look at the top 6 players on opposing teams.
LAL: Bynum, Gasol, Sessions, Kobe, Barnes, (Best of Hill, Murphy, MWP etc)
OKC: Durant, Harden, Ibaka, Westbrook, Perkins, (Sefolosha or Collison)
Dal:Marion, Kidd, Dirk, Terry, Haywood, Carter
Mem: Gasol, Conley, Allen, Randolph, Gay, Mayo
Hou: Lowry, Scola, Dalembert, Parsons, Martin, (Lee or Dragic or...)
DEN: Faried, Lawson, Miller, Afflalo, whoever karl plays at SF, Koufus
PHX: Nash, Gortat, Frye, Dudley, Hill, Morris
LAC: Paul, Jordan, Griffin, Butler, Evans, Mo Williams
Utah: Millsap, Jefferson, Hayward, Howard, harris, Favors
Min: Love, Pek, Ridnour, Barea, Williams, Johnson

Teams that rely on depth get a downgrade relative to the regular season, as the advantage of a better backup is reduced in minutes. (Not saying it's not good to have depth, just that it matters less.)

I'd say, from this super half baked analysis, that the Lakers, thunder, Suns and Grizzlies will be the biggest challenges. The Jazz have an overlap where their best players are, Houston lacks top talent, Denver lacks it a bit(and Karl is useless at playing his best players). Minnesota is down to 2 elite players, and Wes Johnson is playing for them. Dallas missing Chandler is big.

By difficulty,
Lakers and OKC as the hardest teams
Memphis and Phoenix next
Then the field.

[Obstructed_View]

Tired? Bynum's only 24. Lakers' stars are used to playing big minutes. TD averaging only 28 mins. Mark my words, he'll start the playoffs very well and fade as they go on and games are every other day and he has to play 34+ mins/game. Splitter - don't know if Pop thinks he's fragile or something. C'mon a 27 year old can play much more than 20 mins. - what astounds me is that no matter how well Splitter plays (obscene 11-13 or 7-9), Pop plays him so few minutes. And Diaw, Bonner and Blair are going to get abused by Gasol/Bynum.

Pace - even more reason for LA's half court, post offense to be a big mismatch. And Parker ain't scoring vs those 2 big giants. Biggest hope is for the 3pt shooting to be clicking and Green and Leonard to run past Artest and Kobe.

While I don't completely agree, there's something to be said for guys being conditioned to play a lot of minutes. Mike D'Antoni did that with the Suns and they always seemed to run out of gas, so you certainly don't want to beat them completely down. I'd like to see Pop get some of these guys up to around 40 minutes toward the end of the season and then just give them a couple of days off to heal up before the playoffs start. Duncan was rested all season long last year and then seemed completely unable to do anything by the second half of games in the playoffs.

[sehui]

I'm going to be really pissed if Memphis tries to get us again by tanking games. We need to be cautious about the seeding, playing against Utah/Houston or Memphis in the first round is going to be make all the difference.

[therealtruth]

While I don't completely agree, there's something to be said for guys being conditioned to play a lot of minutes. Mike D'Antoni did that with the Suns and they always seemed to run out of gas, so you certainly don't want to beat them completely down. I'd like to see Pop get some of these guys up to around 40 minutes toward the end of the season and then just give them a couple of days off to heal up before the playoffs start. Duncan was rested all season long last year and then seemed completely unable to do anything by the second half of games in the playoffs.

I agree. I don't think you can suddenly go from averaging under 30 minutes to to 35+ without any effect. The other option is Pop won't change minutes much and hope that works. Part of the reason coaches play their starters more minutes in the playoffs is because the other coach is doing the same thing.

[TheSkeptic]

I agree. I don't think you can suddenly go from averaging under 30 minutes to to 35+ without any effect. The other option is Pop won't change minutes much and hope that works. Part of the reason coaches play their starters more minutes in the playoffs is because the other coach is doing the same thing.

So all of these new pick-ups and we're still doomed?

Actually I'll wait a few more games before panicking but if this rotation doesn't change our team doesn't get past the semis short of some miraculous injuries to opponents.

[Rapper]

The only team in the playoffs who is possible beat the spurs is mavs

[100%duncan]

The only team in the playoffs who is possible beat the spurs is mavs

No, mavs would be a favorable 2nd rnd matchup.

[shorttotry]

Instead of LA it should be Dallas to make it a true redemption theme. Also, put it in the order of MEM, PHX, and DAL.

nice.... :flag:

[Splits]

Lakers sure look good in Oakland tonight...

or not. How anyone could fear them, after they proved they're a joke of a team last year getting swept in the most egregious fashion, is beyond me. They'll be lucky to get out of the first round this year.

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

In Spurs basketball, nothing is sweeter than beating the Lakers in the playoffs. Second to winning the Finals itself outright, of course.

[ducks]

I want the thunder in the first round
spurs will destroy their first round team they face

[angelbelow]

No, mavs would be a favorable 2nd rnd matchup.

Favorable is too strong of a word. I would be confident against Dallas but it won't be a easy series. Their depth is lacking this year but they still have some nice pieces that can do some damage.

[Doctor J]

On positive thing I can think of the match-up with the Lakers is Mike Brown.

Phil Jackson could out-psyche Popovich any time.

But Mike Brown can't.

[Man In Black]

It's a different year and even the variables that one used to be able to call CONSTANT, is no longer that.
Bean doesn't look to be able to shoot with high efficiency and while both Bynum and Gasol present length problems, it would seem that their inability to adhere to their NEW coach's principles, is causing everyone to spend time on the bench. That was a crappy 3 pt attempt Bynum. No Derek Fisher means one other block to unleashing the 1 against 5 Bean has been released. If you go into just thinking how Bean played when he didn't have Phil Jackson coaching him, you get the 06 LAL. The same team that lost a 3-1 lead to a Mike D'Antoni coached Suns team.
Yeah, they have some pieces, but they ain't the same team. Why does one have to prop them like the 4-letter does daily?I most certainly don't and really...what have they done to make it appear like they've earned it? To let GSW come back and nearly steal a game from them the way they let Washington and Detroit do them weeks earlier? That Parabolic arc is on the downside and this time, there is no Zen hand or newly obtained talent that will bring them back up. They have to run what they brung and they are a hot rod that keeps misfiring.

[Robz4000]

I'm going to be really pissed if Memphis tries to get us again by tanking games. We need to be cautious about the seeding, playing against Utah/Houston or Memphis in the first round is going to be make all the difference.
Memphis isn't going to tank again this year. They have a shot to get the 4 seed and they're gonna gun for it. Even if they do drop out of the race for it, the Spurs so far are 0-3 against them, with 2 of the wins coming shorthanded in Memphis. Spurs are a good deal tougher than last year and added pieces that make the Grizz not as tough of a match-up.

[HeroSquad]

Here's an interesting (but probably unsurprising) fact about the Lakers: Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol are 2nd and 6th in the league, respectively, in minutes played; Andrew Bynum is 29th. For comparison, the highest Spurs on that list are Tony Parker (46th) and Tim Duncan (102nd). Pau and Kobe aren't young anymore and Bynum still has a history of being injury prone (though he's stayed healthy for the majority of the season). I can't help but think that this could work to our advantage given our depth.

[timvp]

Alright, we can end the debate on whether or not the Lakers deserve to be number one on this list. They obviously do.

Tonight's game should be a great way to gauge how high Memphis should be on the list. I still think 4 is about right even though the Grizzlies have a whole lot of impressive wins lately. The Grizzlies are big but nothing compared to the Lakers. In theory, I think the Spurs should be able to handle their size enough to then exploit some of their advantages.

Shall be interesting tonight.

[timvp]

Tbh, Memphis just doesn't look too scary this year. Zach Randolph is like 75% of what he was last season and there's not much time for him to get healthier between now and the start of the playoffs. That alone is a gigantic difference. Sure, the Spurs caught a break with no Tony Allen tonight but I don't think this is a matchup to be scared about. Certainly not on the level of the Lakers.

It's not impossible for the Grizzlies to beat the Spurs but as long as San Antonio is healthy, they should easily be the favorites in a series.

[elemento]

Honestly i don't fear Memphis at all. They lost key players from the last seriers and we've changed.

My biggest concern going forward is against good rebounding teams. So far this season, there were two teams that completely out-rebounded us. Chicago and LA .And these are the two teams i would like to avoid. If we give these two teams 2nd chances to score all the time like we did when we played against them, i don't see the Spurs winning against them at all in the playoffs.

[Spurtacus]

Most difficult run to the playoffs imo:

1st round: Dallas #7
2nd round: Lakers #3
3rd round: Memphis #4 (upset over #1 Thunder in round 2)

Spurs are 4-0 against Memphis this year but their bigs are always a threat to turn it up a notch. OKC doesn't have offensive bigs that will give the Spurs problems.

[temujin]

Eh, I'm not going to put much stock in regular season games. In the regular season, the Spurs should do well against them due to their much superior depth.

The 1999 Spurs and the 2005 Spurs could only go about seven players deep, yet both of those teams would sweep the 2012 Spurs.

This.

[beachwood]

Looking at a lot of post on this and seeing people disregard the beat down the Lakers gave the Spurs. The Lakers should be #1 on everyone's list. They are the worst possible match up for the Spurs.

The Lakers win was no fluke. The Lakers dominated because they are supremely confident that they can beat the Spurs. Besides health, in the playoffs it is all about confidence.

These past two games against the Lakers and Grizzlies, which were the closest games this season to a playoff level intensity, the Spurs were extremely shaky. And it was all mental. I'm not saying things can change, but as of right now, the Spurs have not demonstrated the intestinal fortitude to deal with a team like the Lakers; a team has recently won back to back championships.

[MaNu4Tres]

The 2012 NBA Playoffs are already around the corner. A month from today, the regular season ends. Which Western Conference teams do I hope the Spurs avoid in the playoffs? IMO, the top five teams below are pretty much set in stone.

1. Los Angeles Lakers
The Spurs struggle with bigmen with length who can score in the paint. The Lakers have a pair of bigs who definitely fit that description. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili depend on finishing in the paint, and that's not easy to do against the Lakers. There's no Bruce Bowen to sic on Kobe Bryant. Ramon Sessions is also a huge upgrade over the corpse of Derek Fisher. And though the Spurs are much deeper than the Lakers, depth becomes much less important in the postseason. Of all the matchups out West, this is by far the most unfavorable for the Spurs.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Despite the fact that the Spurs have played the Thunder well during the regular season recently, the amount of talent on OKC's roster simply cannot be ignored. When the pace slows and the game begins to hinge on one-on-one situations, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will be extremely tough to slow down. Add in James Harden (the closest thing in the NBA to the next Manu Ginobili), the athletic shotblocking nightmare that is Serge Ibaka, and their beaucoup solid role players, it's safe to say the Thunder won't be going down without a fight.

3. Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs have experienced their dry spells this season but I shouldn't have to quote Rudy T to explain why it would be unwise to underestimate Dallas. Dirk Nowitzki hasn't done well against the Spurs this season but come playoff time, he's still the most intimidating offensive force in the West. Defensively, the Mavs are the most well-coached squad in the conference and they'd be able to take the Spurs out of their comfort zones much better than any other team in this half of the bracket.

4. Memphis Grizzlies
With Zach Randolph rounding into shape and Marc Gasol enjoying his first All-Star campaign, it's no secret that duo creates matchup problems for San Antonio. If Rudy Gay can play at the top of his game while complementing their big boys in the middle, the Grizzlies might move all the way up to No. 2 on this list. Fortunately, it doesn't appear as if these Grizzlies have the chemistry of last year's Grizzlies. Then again, there's still another month for Memphis to rediscover that magic.

5. Los Angeles Clippers
They're horrible coached. Their management still doesn't have a clue. Donald Sterling is still Donald Sterling. That said, the duo of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin is potentially as dangerous as any duo in the West. If Vinny Del Negro can accidentally stumble into a winning formula, the Clippers have the necessary talent to surprise any team in the West.

6. Denver Nuggets
Let's be honest: The Spurs are an offensive team this year. They aren't going to be winning anything if they solely depend on their defense to carry the load. With that in mind, the Nuggets are one of the few teams in the West that can claim their offense is better. If the Spurs get in a shootout with these guys, Denver has the weaponry to give San Antonio a run for their playoff lives.

7. Phoenix Suns
A couple weeks ago, it appeared as if the Suns were dead. However, following a 12-19 start, the Suns have won 13 of their previous 18 games heading into Tuesday's showdown in Phoenix. Their offense has really picked it up and the ageless Steve Nash shows few signs of slowing down. And I'm not even going to mention the sweep.

8. Utah Jazz
The Jazz have a ton of bigmen depth -- highlighted by Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson -- plus a pair of guards who have defended Tony Parker well in the past in Devin Harris and Earl Watson. If one of their swingmen emerges as anything resembling a star (watch out for Alec Burks), they could give San Antonio a real test.

9. Houston Rockets
The Rockets and Spurs always play close games. Always. It's not exactly a rivalry but with solid players such as Kyle Lowry, Kevin Martin and that Argentine guy, it wouldn't be an easy series for San Antonio.

10. Minnesota Timberwolves
The loss of Ricky Rubio really hurts the T'Wolves' chances of beating the Spurs in the playoffs. But Kevin Love is a beast, Rick Adelman is a very good coach and there are a handful of players on that roster with All-Star potential. We've already seen what happens when this young, talented bunch gets rolling in Minnesota.

Pop's brain when it comes to rotations and the front-court has to be moved to at least number 2.

[T Park]

Tbh, Memphis just doesn't look too scary this year. Zach Randolph is like 75% of what he was last season and there's not much time for him to get healthier between now and the start of the playoffs. That alone is a gigantic difference. Sure, the Spurs caught a break with no Tony Allen tonight but I don't think this is a matchup to be scared about. Certainly not on the level of the Lakers.

It's not impossible for the Grizzlies to beat the Spurs but as long as San Antonio is healthy, they should easily be the favorites in a series.


I really think losing Battier was the death knell? (spelling)

Him along Arthur and Vasquez won that series and those key pieces are not there. Vasquez still gives them problems. I don't think Speights is the perimeter threat that Arthur is and that's a big difference.

Would I want to face them? No.
If they did in the second round though I'd say Spurs in 6. Also, Randolph had a "year" last year that I don't think he'd match again, along with Gasol.

[T Park]

Ideal ideal scenario? LA falls to 4 or 5, gets Memphis, they go 7 then Rey play OKC.

Spurs play Houston, then the Clippers.

That's ideal, and who knows, it could happen.

[benefactor]

No Phil, no Odom, no Fisher...just a few slow-footed, tall front line players.

Ain't skeered.


:wakeup

[Bruno]

Which Western Conference teams do I hope the Spurs avoid in the playoffs?

1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
3. Dallas Mavericks
4. Memphis Grizzlies
5. Los Angeles Clippers
6. Denver Nuggets
7. Phoenix Suns
8. Utah Jazz
9. Houston Rockets
10. Minnesota Timberwolves


I'm guessing timvp should be happy of how seeding has unfold.

Spurs should face Utah in the first round. The less feared team among all whose are qualified for the playoffs.

The 3 most feared teams will be on the other side of the bracket.

[honestfool84]

i think timvp rigged something. :smokin


it came out too perfect. :lol

[timvp]

Bump.


I'm not sure who I'm rooting for between the Grizzlies and Clippers.

With the Grizzlies, the Spurs would have the ultimate revenge factor ... plus Zach Randolph looks about 75% at best. But they're a very good defensive team that knows exactly how to beat the Spurs. Gasol's brother is a handful, they're well coached and have the defensive pieces (Allen, Conley, etc.) to make life difficult for the Spurs.

The Clippers, on the other hand, have weak coaching, limited depth and limited experience. But then again, beating any Chris Paul team is difficult -- especially because Paul would run pick-and-roll to attack Duncan about 100 times per game. Blake Griffin is obviously capable of being a monster. Their perimeter quickness would be a headache (*cough* Neal *cough*). They have bigs that can defend the rim and the pick-and-roll.


I'm not sure either team is much easier than the other, tbh.

[Mel_13]

Bump.


I'm not sure who I'm rooting for between the Grizzlies and Clippers.

With the Grizzlies, the Spurs would have the ultimate revenge factor ... plus Zach Randolph looks about 75% at best. But they're a very good defensive team that knows exactly how to beat the Spurs. Gasol's brother is a handful, they're well coached and have the defensive pieces (Allen, Conley, etc.) to make life difficult for the Spurs.

The Clippers, on the other hand, have weak coaching, limited depth and limited experience. But then again, beating any Chris Paul team is difficult -- especially because Paul would run pick-and-roll to attack Duncan about 100 times per game. Blake Griffin is obviously capable of being a monster. Their perimeter quickness would be a headache (*cough* Neal *cough*). They have bigs that can defend the rim and the pick-and-roll.


I'm not sure either team is much easier than the other, tbh.

I'm rooting for a 7 game series with a triple OT game 7. Then Game 1 in San Antonio two nights later.

[timvp]

^Only problem with that is seven games would guarantee a back-to-back in the second round. Whoever wins, I hope they do so by winning the next three games, tbh.

[Bruno]

Caron Butler out hurts a lot the Clippers. They are the weakest potential second round opponent but playing against the Grizllies will be more fun. Spurs have some unfinished business with them.

[DPG21920]

I am rooting for LAC no doubt. No Caron, others banged up and their inside guys aren't playoff superstars. CP3 is tough and they can defend at times but they are the more favorable match up.

[024]

the clippers would obviously be the easier opponent. no depth, VDN sucks balls at coaching, and no real low post player to tear up the spurs down low. the clippers obviously need to run to be efficient at scoring the ball. their half court offense is just abysmal even with paul on the floor. they have to depend on their 3 point guards (bledsoe, williams, CP3) to score quickly which will play right into the spurs' hands.

also, griffin is not much of a threat. he is limited offensively and only has one real go to move (the one where he spins very quickly). he has no jump shot to rely on and the spurs don't have to worry about jordan or evans picking apart the low post, just watch the lobs. if worse comes to worse, the spurs can just rely on hacking griffin when he is getting hot offensively. he won't be making many free throws.

[Keepin' it real]

also, griffin is not much of a threat.

I'm really disappointed in Griffin. I thought he would be much better. He looks awesome whenever I watch ESPN highlights.

[justinandimcool]

Nick Young, Mo Williams, Eric Bledsoe, and Bobby Simmons are getting big minutes. No brainer who to root for...

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

I agree. Clippers are a weaker opponent. Paul is better than Mike Connely, but I think Parker would do better against Paul. Also, the Clips seem more likely to lose composure. And they would play a less physical style of game which would benefit the Spurs.

I think Memphis is going to win so I think we should start getting used to that idea. But I agree that Memphis isn't quite as good as last year.

[bklynspursfan]

I want Memphis for a couple reasons:

1. Revenge. I think we will beat them in 6 and really take it to them to get last year out of their mind

2. Travel time. It's been stated that there will be back to backs in the 2nd round. Much easier to get on a plane to Memphis for a b2b than going to LA

3. Any time you're facing a CP3 driven team it will be a slug fest. He keeps things under control and even with their weak coaching he can really dictate the pace of the game and doesn't get flustered.

[Keepin' it real]

Does anyone else feel like throwing up whenever the Grizz throw lucky-ass shots up, and they go in? It happened so often last year, and the first 3 quarters of game 1 Sunday were the same. Their luck better run out by the second round, if they make it that far.

[Jimcs50]

^Only problem with that is seven games would guarantee a back-to-back in the second round. Whoever wins, I hope they do so by winning the next three games, tbh.

True, the Dallas-OkCity and LA series is already ahead of our series, so whoever our second round series will be way behind their series so when our second round series is over, they will be rested. I need Clippers or Memphis to hurry up and win. Spurs do not need rest right now at all, so the quicker we get get to next series, the better it is in long run. Or else, I hope LA series goes 7 games.

[Jimcs50]

This is one year that I do not care who Spurs play in any series. I also do not care who refs are,( remember the days when all of us freaked out about which refs were going to be at our games?) :lol as I feel that this Spurs team will totally demolish any and all comers.

I would not be surprised if they have better playoff record than the 15-2 99 team.

[Keepin' it real]

I would not be surprised if they have better playoff record than the 15-2 99 team.

I would not be surprised to see Spurstalk implode when the Spurs suffer their first playoff loss.

[Jimcs50]

I would not be surprised to see Spurstalk implode when the Spurs suffer their first playoff loss.

Nah, because it will not happen until game 4 of the WCFs.

[T Park]

I was hoping for Steve Javy for game 3 but forgot he retired :(

[Budkin]

We'll beat either one. The Clips barely have any playoff experience and Vinny Del Negro is their coach. Memphis is nowhere near as hot as they were last year and Rudy Gay makes them more of a perimeter oriented team. Also this year's Spurs team is nothing like last year's.

[Whisky Dog]

I remember all the freak out about the refs in years past. Has the officiating gotten better or a little less biased than it used to be? I honestly can't tell. These first two games had a shit load of missed or questionable calls but both teams seemed to get a few breaks.

[Legacy]

Again, I know we're not even truly there yet -- but bring on The Grizz, baby! :hungry:


Karma is such a bitch! :devil

[DAF86]

^Only problem with that is seven games would guarantee a back-to-back in the second round. Whoever wins, I hope they do so by winning the next three games, tbh.

And why would we want to avoid a back to back on the second round? We have the deepest team in the playoffs.

[DAF86]

I also don't know who to root for. Conventional wisdom says we matchup worse against the Grizzlies but we swept them this year and only won the series 2-1 against LAC and one of those wins was in OT after that Neal three assisted by Chris Paul.

The Clippers have the best player (in any of the three teams) and arguably the second best too, a ton of bigs to throw at us (Griffin, Jordan, Martin, Evans) and the thing that scares me the most: a lot of guys that can go off from outside (Paul, Williams, Young, Foye). Butler's injury hurts them a lot though.

[vander]

Miami worries me

I don't think Spurs will be able to keep Wade/Lebron out of the paint very well, or off of the free throw line, Wade is a good actor, he gets fouled every time he thinks about driving to the basket

[Spursmania]

Clips will be more worn down and have less experience overall.
I'd take the clips, but boy do I hate the Grizz!
Revenge would be sweet, but they would take a lot out us and weaken us
physically a lot more than a Clip team would.

Go Clips!!

[DeadlyDynasty]

lolwut?

Yeah, we all know you're rooting for the Clippers--and rightly so.

[Proxy]

Utah has a size advantage like LA and MEM, but their offensive perimeter play isn't good enough to alleviate focus off of Al and Millsap, thus SA's dominance so far. Not to mention Gasol and Randolph/Bynum are better duos than UTA's big men.

Add Gay and Kobe to the mix and things don't become so easy.

[Seventyniner]

If the Clippers beat Memphis, are they really the weaker team?

[TD 21]

lolwut?

Yeah, we all know you're rooting for the Clippers--and rightly so.

Personally, I don't care. On the one hand, I think the Clippers would be easier. On the other hand, I'd like to see the Spurs get revenge on the Grizzlies and dispel this notion that "they can't handle their size" (the Spurs' health and Grizzlies defense were the biggest factors in that series). But it really doesn't matter, because neither is beating the Spurs. In fact, either would do well just to get it to a sixth game.

Barring injury, it's going to take Bynum and/or James consistently playing out of their minds to deny this team a title.

[timvp]

Bump.





So far, can't really complain about the playoff road for the Spurs. As it turned out, getting that first seed has made things a whole lot easier.

Too bad that the Spurs are destined for a huge test next round if they advance. As easy as these first two rounds are on paper, Thunder/Lakers and then Heat is an extremely daunting last two rounds. Only the 2005 run could possibly compare.

[Redshadows]

Bump.





So far, can't really complain about the playoff road for the Spurs. As it turned out, getting that first seed has made things a whole lot easier.

Too bad that the Spurs are destined for a huge test next round if they advance. As easy as these first two rounds are on paper, Thunder/Lakers and then Heat is an extremely daunting last two rounds. Only the 2005 run could possibly compare.

I am waiting for the Ten Reasons The Spurs Could Sweep The Clippers.

:flag:

[Blake]

Only the 2005 run could possibly compare.

2003 can also compare, imo.

[timvp]

2003 can also compare, imo.

Mavs and Nets?

[Jimcs50]

Too bad that the Spurs are destined for a huge test next round if they advance. As easy as these first two rounds are on paper, Thunder/Lakers and then Heat is an extremely daunting last two rounds. Only the 2005 run could possibly compare.


Damn, what do you want, the streets paved in gold on the way to the championship? A team should have to be tested to win it all....hence winning it all translates to being the best team.

[Jimcs50]

I want Thunder, then I want Miami.

This way, not one sports scribe can ever doubt that SA deserved this 5th ring. There will be no doubt who was the best team....no asterisks this time, Phil Jackson.

[Whisky Dog]

Fuck scribes, give me the ring.


Is Bosh in danger of being out for the playoffs?

[timvp]

I'd like the WCF to be canceled after both teams pull a Malice in the Palace Part 2 and then I want the Spurs to play the Sixers in the Finals.

Just tbhing, tbh. I couldn't care less about the size of a mythical asterisk.

[DPG21920]

MIA stumbling is making things interesting. While Boston is solid and savvy, there's no doubt that playing them or Indy makes getting a ring much less daunting.


OKC is beasting though - I might have to change my #1 & #2 with okc now the worst match up and la two. Lakers are just too inconsistent. If they could play disciplined there's not doubt in my mind they are the worst match up.

[DPG21920]

Oh, thank goodness Spurs got the Clips.

[GuillermoDiazFan]

Healthy Clippers.

[benefactor]

Not really. Games are closer but the result is the same.

Thunder is the worst followed by the Lakers.

[DesignatedT]

Yeah playing the Lakers would not be worse than playing the Thunder. Don't see how anyone could see it that way after watching the last month. OKC is a much better team.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Your mom

[DBMethos]

Climbing up the ladder...

[timvp]

As well as the Thunder look, we have to remember they are built perfectly to beat the Lakers. The Lakers can't defend point guards or mid-range shots and the Thunder have a star point guard and are the best mid-range shooting team in the league.

So while the Thunder and going to look really good against the Lakers, that's only natural. I still think that the Lakers are easily the more difficult matchup on paper for the Spurs. That said, the Thunder are entirely capable of beating the Spurs in a series.

[spursfan 73]

Hell they haven't even looked that good against LA

[Manu-20]

People are really overatting the thunder spurs in 5 at most.

[Legacy]

People are really overatting the thunder spurs in 5 at most.


HHhhhmmmmm... I kinda' have to agree. They need more "battle-testing" from The Fakers first, tbh. :lol

[ViceCity86]

I still think Miami is the biggest challenge.I have a feeling Bosh will get healthy.The Heat should win the Leastern conference even without Bosh.Celtics,Pacers and Sixers are all garbage.

Celtics- 6-4 vs Hawks and sixers.Spurs would sweep both teams.They have no depth,size,Allen about done and promising Avery Bradley can't keep his shoulder intact.KG and Pierce playing like 08 and struggling vs subpar competition.

Pacers-Grossly overrated team that struggle at times vs Howardless Magic team.No true closer,Hibbert is still soft.Their bench is highly overrated.Hansbrough and Amundson are scrubs.

Sixers-Worst team in 2012 playoffs.The Jazz are better than this team.A horrific half court offense.They got lucky vs a Bulls team minus Rose and Noah.

1.Thunder
2.Heat- pending on Bosh
3.Lakers-but likely done

The rest are trash.

[DBMethos]

As well as the Thunder look, we have to remember they are built perfectly to beat the Lakers. The Lakers can't defend point guards or mid-range shots and the Thunder have a star point guard and are the best mid-range shooting team in the league.

That's the bit that worries me, tbh. The Spurs have historically had their fair share of trouble against teams that shoot well from mid-range (Dallas immediately springs to mind). Instead of running them off the 3-point line, like they had to do with the Clips, I think they need to really be on guard in that 15-18 foot range and instead encourage the Thunder to take contested 3's. OKC really doesn't have anyone who can routinely make their opponents pay from long range.

[tesseractive]

Sixers-Worst team in 2012 playoffs.The Jazz are better than this team.A horrific half court offense.They got lucky vs a Bulls team minus Rose and Noah.

The Sixers are a terrible offensive team, but a really solid defensive team. I don't think they're a marginal playoff team at all, which is why they've already won 2 against the Cs.

But they're still no threat to us. We'll still be able to get baskets, and our defense can easily outclass their offense.

[timtonymanurich]

Least resistance?

Jazz - Clippers - Thunder = Finals

HEY: What are the next lotto numbers...?

[therealtruth]

As well as the Thunder look, we have to remember they are built perfectly to beat the Lakers. The Lakers can't defend point guards or mid-range shots and the Thunder have a star point guard and are the best mid-range shooting team in the league.

So while the Thunder and going to look really good against the Lakers, that's only natural. I still think that the Lakers are easily the more difficult matchup on paper for the Spurs. That said, the Thunder are entirely capable of beating the Spurs in a series.

The Spurs blew out the Lakers twice. The key was taking Blair out of the rotation.

[Horse]

We have trouble with midrange shooting when there is a post player to worry about. We're the only team left with a post game. So against okc we can stay at home and contest. Add how much they turn the ball over and this may be easier than we think.

[ElNono]

I'm going to disagree here, and before somebody pulls the "winning streak" overconfidence card (ahem), let me tell you this is after seeing both the Spurs and Lakers additions, and mostly how they've been playing all season long.

At this stage, either Gasol is pretty much the same problem. Actually, Pau just hasn't played as well this season, thus the trade rumors.

Bynum is clearly the Laker's best player, but they don't go to him nearly as much as you would think. The reason? He's still a fairly mediocre passer off double-triple teams. He is completely superior to ZBo on both size and strength, but he really isn't as skilled. ZBo has both that mid-range money jumper (which he was draining non-stop last night against Bynum/Pau) and he's a much better passer. So, Bynum definitely has the ability to dominate much more than ZBo, but as far as actually guarding and throwing a double-team their way, I'm not sure ZBo is the easier-to-guard guy. You also would need to add that Drew sometimes gets lazy. Take last night, 4 rebounds in 30+ mins.

The second problem for LA this season is the poor spacing they provide. A lot of teams pack the paint to double-triple Bynum, and largely it pays off. MWP is shooting 26% from downtown for the season (Memphis didn't bother to guard him in the perimeter last night). Kobe? 29% from downtown. Sessions just isn't taking many 3s, instead prefers to drive. Now, Memphis last season wasn't much better (I'm talking Conley, Battier who is now gone and OJ Mayo). But defensively there's just no comparison. Allen is way, way better one on one defender than MWP (MWP is still good roughing up players, but he's terrible running through screen). And Battier was way, way better than Kobe defensively. We're talking large margin here. Kobe these days likes to roam. He will literally leave his guy alone in a corner at the start of the possesion and go try to get a block or steal inside.

The third problem is their bench. As in, they have basically Barnes, who is middle of the road. Blake, Murphy, McRoberts. You can find instances just in the last month where one of the 3 finished with zero points, and the other two didn't even get to double-digits. Memphis just had a much better bench, especially when they had Battier. Their defensive intensity never dwindled.

The fourth problem is their coach. Mike Brown will literally enable Kobe to chuck his way through a game without even looking for his bigs, even though they might be shooting 60%+. The benching last night was an odd development, but since they have no bench, Kobe has to play. They just don't have enough to make up for even his poor shooting.

Their home record is also pretty deceiving. They've won a lot at home, but if you actually watch the games, there are very rarely any blowouts. Every team has a shot at Staples. Outside of Charlotte and Utah very early in the season most games have been within a 10 point margin. And they're a sub .500 team on the road. 10-15 this season.

All in all, I think this Lakers team is actually worse than last season. I think Memphis is also worse. I don't think they'll be a cakewalk or anything, but I think from a matchup perspective, both OKC and Dallas are more difficult foes, despite what the regular season record against us might indicate.

Nonostradamous with the goods, per par, etc (self-pat in the back) :wakeup

[Sisk]

Least resistance?

Jazz - Clippers - Thunder = Finals

:toast

[TD 21]

Bump.

Three questions . . .

1) With the Nash addition, would you rate the Lakers ahead of the Thunder as a more difficult match-up for the Spurs again?

2) Did you have them ahead before the Nash acquisition?

3) Would a Howard addition change your opinion either way?

I had the Lakers as number one last season. I didn't think the Thunder were ready and I thought the Lakers size would be more daunting than anything the Thunder could throw at the Spurs throughout a series. I've now done a 180. Despite the addition of Nash, I'm convinced the Thunder will be more difficult, for three reasons . . .

1) I don't think the Lakers are mobile enough to adequately defend the Spurs pick-and-roll, motion based attack throughout a series. Suffice it to say, Nash and Jamison only further hamper them in this regard.

2) Despite adding arguably the greatest shooter ever, the Lakers still lack outside shooting. Jamison is not as good a three-point shooter as Murphy and Ebanks is an even worse three-point shooter than Barnes.

3) The Spurs are better equipped to defend the Lakers in the post, with the addition of Diaw, Pop realizing he needs to basically play a thee big rotation against them (which means more Splitter, less Bonner) and the fact that Gasol appears to be in decline.

Now having said that, Howard would almost singlehandedly take care of their defensive immobility issues and they could still add outside shooting. If they do those two things, I'd rate them ahead of the Thunder again.

[racm]

Nash is 38. The signing solves two problems (reducing Kobe's usage rate and giving him better looks as well as helping Pau/Bynum get better looks with the PnR), but doesn't solve their athleticism disadvantage.

Dwight would give the Lakers the advantage, however; I doubt Perkins and Ibaka would be able to counter a guy who can work in the post AND pass out of double teams.

[Obstructed_View]

I hope that the Spurs can turn back the clock enough for it to matter another year, when the truth is probably that the window was closed by OKC.

[ElNono]

Too early to tell, IMO... For a wild prognostication, it would go like this:

The Lakeshow are either going to implode mid-season, probably starting with Artest tweeting shit about coach, Phil Jackson rumors, Mike Brown getting his ass fired, etc...

Or the complete opposite: Nash becomes that glue and 3 point guy they really need to space the floor, Gasol comes back inspired after a good Olympics, Bynum realizes he's not going to get this surrounding cast in Cleveland, Kobe learns how to be a semi-role player after getting overshadowed by Lebron in London, Mike Brown learns how to coach, call timeouts when it matters and manage minutes, etc.

As far as OKC, I think they're going to stay the path... WCF two seasons ago... Finals last season... there's no reason to tweak much looking at the progression... Ultimately, barring any major injuries, I do think they're the top team in the West.

[Brazil]

Una cerveza, por favor

si senor