Neal Odd Man Out?

[roycrikside]

Gary Neal D-
After missing two games due to a foot injury, Gary Neal returned. That's about the end of the positive things I can write about him. On defense, Neal was really bad. He couldn't stay in front of anyone and he was also allowing shooters enough space to shoot right over the top of him. Offensively, his shot selection was poor and it seemed to get worse and worse the more shots he missed. With Patty Mills on board, Neal is going to have to play a lot better if he wants to retain his role as backup point guard.





LJ, do you think there's a chance that in the playoffs as Pop pares down the rotation to 8 or 9 guys that Neal draws the short straw?

I've been paying attention to your ratings and it seems to me you've consistently harped on Neal's defense more than any Spur. With good reason, as he's dead last (http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/plus/plus_minus_finder.cgi?request=1&player_id=&match=single&output=per_poss&year_min=2012&year_max=2012&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&team_id=SAS&opp_id=&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&game_month=&game_location=&game_result=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=ge&c1val=50&c2stat=&c2comp=ge&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=ge&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=ge&c4val=&order_by=opp_pts&order_by_asc=Y) on the team in points allowed per 100 possessions, unless you count Corey Joseph.

Defensively, Neal is too slow to guard most point guards and too short to guard quality twos like Kobe, Wade, Harden, etc. Really I'm struggling to think of anyone he can guard.

Offensively, we're stacked at shooting guard with Manu and Jackson, and guys like Green and Leonard can play there too, and they've got a lot more size than Neal. As far as point guards go, Manu is the primary guy when Tony's out, and Green, Jackson and even Mills can all handle that role as well as far as bringing the ball up the floor and then handing it off to Ginobili to set up the offense.

It seems to me that Neal's assets are less and less needed with Manu's return to health and the acquisition of Jackson. He's the streakiest shooter on the team besides Green as well.

Is it possible that Pop will trim his rotation to the 8 or 9 guys that won't be liabilities on either end of the floor and that Neal will be relegated to a Steve Kerr in 2003 kind of role, where he only plays in an emergency if the team needs a bunch of late 3s or a last-second shot situation?

[angelbelow]

I actually think both Green and Neal are going to used on a situational basis. So I don't see either getting consistent minutes in the playoffs. By default, I'd prefer to see Neal since he is the more capable shooter. I also don't think Green is suited to be a starter. His streakiness works better coming off the bench. On a good day Green is capable of swinging the momentum in our favor and sparking a runs. On a bad day, he simply shouldn't play that much.

Playoff rotation of 7 is more realistic:
Duncan
Splitter
Leonard
Manu
Parker
Jackson
Diaw
8th will go to Bonner/Neal/Green/Blair.

[TheSkeptic]

I actually think both Green and Neal are going to used on a situational basis. So I don't see either getting consistent minutes in the playoffs. By default, I'd prefer to see Neal since he is the more capable shooter. I also don't think Green is suited to be a starter. His streakiness works better coming off the bench. On a good day Green is capable of swinging the momentum in our favor and sparking a runs. On a bad day, he simply shouldn't play that much.

Playoff rotation of 7 is more realistic:
Duncan
Splitter
Leonard
Manu
Parker
Jackson
Diaw
8th will go to Bonner/Neal/Green/Blair.

This looks reasonable to me. Personally, I'm just not convinced that Green is someone who should be a heavy rotation player in the post-season and the same goes with Bonner and Blair.

The more I look at last year and compare it to this year, however, I'm not sure that's how it's going to work out. Aside from giving the big 3 more minutes, it seems like Pop does't really make significant changes to the rotation these days. Which suggests that we need to hope guys play completely over their heads.

I'm trying not to panic but the fact that the season's coming to a close and things *still* haven't really tightened has me feeling like the Spurs won't be getting number 5 this year unless something changes dramatically.

[chazley]

Bonner is a lock to get time in the playoffs. Sorry if that disappoints you.

[Paranoid Pop]

Neal = best pure shooter on the roaster who can now play at his position, wouldn't write him off just yet.

[jiggy_55]

An 8-man rotation seems to be too short, especially considering Pop's tendencies lately to play everyone with this deep team. I would expect to see a minimum of 9 players and since Manu will act as a PG I would rather he starts off the bench:

PG- Parker
SG- Jackson
SF- Leonard
PF- Blair
C- Duncan

Bench:
6- Manu
7- Diaw
8- Splitter/Bonner
9- Green/Neal

However, I might add that I don't think it's smart to have Jackson start at the SG spot, he's not quick enough anymore to play with most 2-guards. Maybe Leonard could be the starting SG and Jackson the starting SF.

[TE]

Bonner is a lock to get time in the playoffs. Sorry if that disappoints you.

You seem like a person who goes to sleep at night happily knowing this to be true in a very sad way.

[100%duncan]

Bonner is a lock to get time in the playoffs. Sorry if that disappoints you.

this tbh

[timtonymanu]

I think Neal's game 5 shot is enough to convince Pop that he should be used in the playoffs. IMO, Green should be the odd man out but Pop starting him this late in the season is a good indicator that he plans to use him as well. It's hard to see who gets left out. I expect Blair to become the 5th big in the playoffs.

[jiggy_55]

I expect Blair to become the 5th big in the playoffs.

What would indicate that? Blair has started every single game this season and it seems Pop likes him at the beginning of games for his aggressiveness and scoring and then benches him later on. I could see that happening in the playoffs as well. If he starts hot, ride him, and if he's cold bench him the rest of the way. Blair usually has very strong scoring starts.

[timtonymanu]

What would indicate that? Blair has started every single game this season and it seems Pop likes him at the beginning of games for his aggressiveness and scoring and then benches him later on. I could see that happening in the playoffs as well. If he starts hot, ride him, and if he's cold bench him the rest of the way. Blair usually has very strong scoring starts.

He did start every game last season as well before Pop eventually gave McDyess his spot. Diaw is showing to be a good fit so I doubt Pop will make him the 5th big. Bonner is just as safe as Duncan, IMO. Splitter could also be the 5th big since he has been injured lately, but I dont think that's a good move and Tim needs a back-up center.

[therealtruth]

This looks reasonable to me. Personally, I'm just not convinced that Green is someone who should be a heavy rotation player in the post-season and the same goes with Bonner and Blair.

The more I look at last year and compare it to this year, however, I'm not sure that's how it's going to work out. Aside from giving the big 3 more minutes, it seems like Pop does't really make significant changes to the rotation these days. Which suggests that we need to hope guys play completely over their heads.

I'm trying not to panic but the fact that the season's coming to a close and things *still* haven't really tightened has me feeling like the Spurs won't be getting number 5 this year unless something changes dramatically.

The problem is if Pop is not going to make any changes now he definitely shouldn't be making them in game 1. If he really believes a 12 man rotation will work he should stick to it since it's what's worked so far. The playoffs is the worst time to try changing things.

[therealtruth]

What would indicate that? Blair has started every single game this season and it seems Pop likes him at the beginning of games for his aggressiveness and scoring and then benches him later on. I could see that happening in the playoffs as well. If he starts hot, ride him, and if he's cold bench him the rest of the way. Blair usually has very strong scoring starts.

Pop has to decide whether Blair's offense is worth the points he gives up defensively. Last year he chose more defense with Dice. This year it's hard to tell if he's going to try rolling with Blair and see if it works.

[jiggy_55]

He did start every game last season as well before Pop eventually gave McDyess his spot. Diaw is showing to be a good fit so I doubt Pop will make him the 5th big. Bonner is just as safe as Duncan, IMO. Splitter could also be the 5th big since he has been injured lately, but I dont think that's a good move and Tim needs a back-up center.

True, but if I recall he moved Dyess to the starting role before the end of the season. We are approaching that stage now and there doesn't seem to be much indication for this. If Blair can keep occasionally having those big 20 point scoring nights which are important for us, I can see him sticking in the lineup.


Pop has to decide whether Blair's offense is worth the points he gives up defensively. Last year he chose more defense with Dice. This year it's hard to tell if he's going to try rolling with Blair and see if it works.

Duncan looks much better this year than he did last year. Also, last year we had Parker struggling in the playoffs, and we had the pussy RJ in our lineup. So it was normal that Dyess was needed for defense or otherwise we would have been much worse.

Now we have Parker rolling on offense and defense, whoever starts at SG will be bringing energy and defense as well, and Leonard is a very good defender and keeps improving. Technically, Blair would be the only weak defender in our starting lineup this season. In comparison to last year when neither Parker or Manu were rolling and RJ still couldn't defend if his life depended on it. I honestly would hope Blair still gets some significant minutes in the playoffs while Mr. Bonner "I cant make a shot in the playoffs" is dropped to a much lesser role. The main bigs would be Duncan, Diaw, and Splitter while Blair gets minutes depending on how he starts and Bonner might get minutes depending on the matchups.

[TheSkeptic]

The problem is if Pop is not going to make any changes now he definitely shouldn't be making them in game 1. If he really believes a 12 man rotation will work he should stick to it since it's what's worked so far. The playoffs is the worst time to try changing things.

Oh I agree. The thing is, I feel like the pieces are all there for a championship but if we're seriously starting Blair and having Bonner as the first big off the bench in the playoffs, then it's not happening short of Bonner lighting it up on both ends and Blair suddenly learning how to play good defence.

Pop will *have* to change things but I don't think he will until it's too late. That's what's bothering me. I hate the thought of the team losing unnecessarily again. Especially since we still don't know which big is getting cut from the rotation.

[TheSkeptic]

True, but if I recall he moved Dyess to the starting role before the end of the season. We are approaching that stage now and there doesn't seem to be much indication for this. If Blair can keep occasionally having those big 20 point scoring nights which are important for us, I can see him sticking in the lineup.



Duncan looks much better this year than he did last year. Also, last year we had Parker struggling in the playoffs, and we had the pussy RJ in our lineup. So it was normal that Dyess was needed for defense or otherwise we would have been much worse.

Now we have Parker rolling on offense and defense, whoever starts at SG will be bringing energy and defense as well, and Leonard is a very good defender and keeps improving. Technically, Blair would be the only weak defender in our starting lineup this season. In comparison to last year when neither Parker or Manu were rolling and RJ still couldn't defend if his life depended on it. I honestly would hope Blair still gets some significant minutes in the playoffs while Mr. Bonner "I cant make a shot in the playoffs" is dropped to a much lesser role. The main bigs would be Duncan, Diaw, and Splitter while Blair gets minutes depending on how he starts and Bonner might get minutes depending on the matchups.

I like Blair. I really do. Love his physicality and the way he plays when he's hustling. If it wasn't for him mentally checking out of last series he'd probably be in my top 5.

That being said...I can't support this. Bring him off the bench.

I saw what happened to Duncan last time when he had to defend by himself pretty much the whole game. I hated watching what happened to Tim in the second halves of games and I still blame Blair and McDyess's inability to defend for that. As well as the coach somewhat. This team won't win it all playing that way.

If Pop won't start Splitter then I would seriously rather see Diaw in the starting line-up come playoff time. He's not what I'd describe as a super good defender but he'd be better than Blair.

[TDMVPDPOY]

defensively his been shit all season man, gets burned by pgs, and lazy as fck cant even defend players his size

his stroke and chucking of stupid shots to get his flow going hurts us more.....he should return back to his main role and be a spot up shooter

[TheSkeptic]

defensively his been shit all season man, gets burned by pgs, and lazy as fck cant even defend players his size

his stroke and chucking of stupid shots to get his flow going hurts us more.....he should return back to his main role and be a spot up shooter

If Patty can work himself into the rotation Neal should be able to go back to shooting.

[will_spurs]

Playoff rotation of 7 is more realistic:

Why?

I checked the last 5 years and Pop always used 12 (or even 13) players, with 10 (or 11) being considered rotation players, and 2 playing very limited minutes.

I see no reason why Pop would suddenly dramatically shorten his playoff rotation, especially in a year where the Spurs have more depth than usual.

Using this as a baseline, I'd expect to see the following:
1. Parker
2. Duncan
3. Ginobili
4. Leonard
5. Bonner
6. Splitter
7. Neal
8. Jackson
9. Diaw
10. Blair

11. Green (depending on match-ups)

12. Mills (limited minutes)
13. Anderson (limited minutes)

[Darkwaters]

An 8-man rotation seems to be too short, especially considering Pop's tendencies lately to play everyone with this deep team. I would expect to see a minimum of 9 players and since Manu will act as a PG I would rather he starts off the bench:

PG- Parker
SG- Jackson
SF- Leonard
PF- Blair
C- Duncan

Bench:
6- Manu
7- Diaw
8- Splitter/Bonner
9- Green/Neal

However, I might add that I don't think it's smart to have Jackson start at the SG spot, he's not quick enough anymore to play with most 2-guards. Maybe Leonard could be the starting SG and Jackson the starting SF.

You seriously think Blair is a lock to play but Splitter will have to beat out Bonner just to get minutes?

[Horse]

This looks reasonable to me. Personally, I'm just not convinced that Green is someone who should be a heavy rotation player in the post-season and the same goes with Bonner and Blair.

The more I look at last year and compare it to this year, however, I'm not sure that's how it's going to work out. Aside from giving the big 3 more minutes, it seems like Pop does't really make significant changes to the rotation these days. Which suggests that we need to hope guys play completely over their heads.

I'm trying not to panic but the fact that the season's coming to a close and things *still* haven't really tightened has me feeling like the Spurs won't be getting number 5 this year unless something changes dramatically.
You're right we've been playing so bad lately, we should probly just giveup the season now.

[Fireball]

I hated watching what happened to Tim in the second halves of games and I still blame Blair and McDyess's inability to defend for that. As well as the coach somewhat. This team won't win it all playing that way.

Agreed. Just remembered the first game in the Memphis series ... Duncan looked like a monster in the first half with 3 huge dunks ... then he disappeared because he could not do it all ...

[Darkwaters]

When looking at the rotation there are two major questions in my mind:

1) Who will play PG when TP is on the bench in the playoffs?
2) Who will start next to Timmy in the post?

The answers to these two questions drive the whole playoff lineup.

Options to question 1 include:
- Patty Mills - Unlikely but possible. We have to see how he meshes.
- Gary Neal - Very possible considering regular season rotations. But not the MOST likely.
- Danny Green - A darkhorse option. Might be successful if paired with Ginobili.
- Manu Ginobili - Another strong possibility.

Ginobili will be a member of the playoff rotation regardless. If he serves as Tony's primary backup then that could shorten the overall rotation. But if a different player takes on that role is effectively adds one spot to the overall rotation.

Possible answers to question 2 include:
- Blair - Possible, but unlikely. Hes one of the worst defensive players in the league. That hurts big time.
- Bonner - Possible, but again, hes not one to show up in the playoffs. Unlikely.
- Splitter - Based on Pop's aversion to playing Duncan and Splitter together this might kill this idea. But certain matchups might mandate this.
- Diaw - My favorite option and one that makes the most sense.

Blair and Bonner are the biggest candidates to see their minutes slashed. Their defensive lapses, and poor playoff play, don't bode well for them. Meanwhile, Diaw stands to continue to collect more minutes as the playoffs approach and is more likely than not the top candidate to start. Splitter is an obvious member of the rotation and will probably start whole series based on matchups.

The other major factor in determining this lineup revolves around how much small ball the Spurs will be forced to play. Jackson and Leonard may find themselves logging minutes at the 4 which will reduce the minutes for posts and may force another wing into the rotation for a series (Green or Neal?).

All that considered, people need to remember that rotations and especially starting lineups will likely vary between game to game and definitely series to series. But a baseline will probably be thus:

Parker
Green/Neal (backup PG minutes - paired with Ginobili)
Ginobili
Jackson
Leonard
Duncan
Splitter
Diaw

Thats an 8 man rotation. Likely starting lineup would be:
Parker
Leonard
Jackson
Diaw
Duncan

[acoelho1]

Neal is one of our most clutch player and someone who has hit big shots in the playoffs. I guarantee you he will be one the first subs into the game. I believe we will have between an 8 to 10 rotation. I expect Blair and possibly Green to be the odd men out. However, if you look at our 1st and 2nd units, its pretty damn impressive.

First Unit

TP
Ginobili
Leonard
Duncan
Diaw

Second Unit

Neal
Green
Jackson
Splitter
Bonner

[Darkwaters]

I don't think it's as simple as 1st team, 2nd team. Teams get away with a 7 man rotation at times in the playoffs. How? They have a spare bigman and a spare wing. One of their wings doubles as a backup PG. The desire is to maximize the playing time for your best players.

Based on this idea, I think an 8-9 rotation is good for a deep team like the Spurs. But with 9 you start to water down the minutes of better players. And with more than 9...well, the dropoff on quality just gets worse.

[Mel_13]

Pop used a nine man rotation in the last two postseasons, with 4 bigs and 5 perimeter players.

Tony, Manu, Leonard, and Jackson are the top 4 perimeter players. Green is the more complete player and most likely candidate for the 5th slot. Neal's best claim on minutes is as backup PG, otherwise he assumes the 2003 Steve Kerr role.

[jiggy_55]

You seriously think Blair is a lock to play but Splitter will have to beat out Bonner just to get minutes?

I was simply implying Splitter and Bonner might share some minutes. To answer your question: no.
But the way Pop has played things seems to show Splitter will only back up Timmy, and Timmy will receive 32+ mpg when it comes to the playoffs which leaves Splitter with very little unfortunately. Bonner sucks, but it seems that Pop will continue to ride him and hope those 3's go down when we need them. Pop has shown no sign of dropping Bonner's minutes, but all season long he hasn't given Splitter the minutes that his play has merited.

[TDMVPDPOY]

im fine with splitter with the backup role, as long he plays in important stretches of the game and yanked out when his not needed, like closing quarters or the game, same with bonner...

hopefully splitter takes up blair/bonners allocated minutes if things are in favor of splitter being on the floor when it comes to matchups

the thing with gary neal and blair, if those first few possessions they aint getting going, they should be yanked out straight away, cant afford to wait for guys to get hot while we continue to waste possessions...

[Keepin' it real]

No, Neal will not be the odd man out. This is not 1999 or 2003, when the Spurs were all about defense. This is 2012, when the Spurs are all about being an offensive juggernaut.

Do you really think a player like Bonner would have received regular minutes on the 1999 or 2003 teams?? Not a chance. But on today's teams, he does, because (theoretically) he's an accurate 3-point shooter who can help the Spurs outscore opponents.

The same applies to Neal, except it's not just theoretical -- that mutha has proven to be an assassin in clutch situations, so no, he's not the odd man out.

[DBMethos]

Fuck, Blair better not fucking start in the playoffs.

Matchups will dictate this. Blair has absolutely no business starting against LAL or Memphis. However, he has proven quite effective against other playoff teams, most notably OKC. Hopefully Pop recognizes this and adjusts as such.

[bigfan]

I think Mills and Anderson will be the only two without a significant role in the playoffs (and even that could change.) Why mess with a good rotation that works?

[Keepin' it real]

Why mess with a good rotation that works?

2011 Coach Pop says hi! Oh, and he's the same guy coaching the team this year, so ...

[Darkwaters]

I think Mills and Anderson will be the only two without a significant role in the playoffs (and even that could change.) Why mess with a good rotation that works?

So you're basically saying you want a 12 man rotation?

Thats not a rotation, thats a free for all. I don't see it happening.

[elemento]

Not gonna happen

Anderson and Mills will play mostly garbage minutes or no minutes at all. The rest will play significant minutes.

[Dr Cox]

Maybe it is me, but I think he is going to keep the same group through the playoffs.

Dumb thought, I know but I could see it happening.

[urunobili]

I think Pop will play 11 players in the playoffs...

[Proxy]

haha, of course Neal will get minutes in the playoffs. Is the question a joke? He's instant offense... best shooter on the team.

[Fireball]

haha, of course Neal will get minutes in the playoffs. Is the question a joke? He's instant offense... best shooter on the team.

well. he had an extremely bad game after returning from a foot injury ... of course this has to be discussed

[Keepin' it real]

well. he had an extremely bad game after returning from a foot injury ... of course this has to be discussed

Yes of course. Neal had a bad game coming back from an injury -- several weeks before the playoffs start -- but let's go ahead and discuss taking him out of the playoff rotation entirely. :sleep:sleep:sleep

And by the way, what's Danny Green's excuse? He was worse than Neal last night, and he's done shit in the playoffs. I love Green's hustle and defense, but his lack of consistent offense is too much to overcome. So if anyone is the odd man out, it should be Green.

[Shifty]

Minutes will be given on a game to game basis. Just like the regular season. Sometimes Pop starts someone and they never return to the floor. Like Blair or sometimes Green (and Leonard until a few weeks ago) they can start but if they are not doing well, someone else gets hot or the matchup calls for a change Pop won't hesitate to make it.

I believe Green, Leonard and Blair will start unless something drastic happens before the playoffs. I also believe Neal will play at least a few minutes a game and stay there if he is hot. Also, no matter if he missed all of his shots, he will be there in crunch time when a shot is needed.

Starters playing 30+ minutes:
Parker
Leonard
Tim

Starters playing 15-25 minutes depending on how they do:
Green
Blair

Off the bench playing starters minutes for sure
Manu

Off the bench playing 20-30 of minutes if hot or because of matchups
Bonner
Splitter

Off the bench playing anything from 5 to 25 minutes depending on a lot of things:
Diaw
Jackson
Neal

DNPs unless something happens:
Mills
Anderson
6th big

Last 3 minutes defensive lineup against big teams:
Green
Leonard
Manu
Splitter
Duncan

Small:
Parker
Manu
Leonard
Jackson
Duncan

Last 3 minutes offensive lineups:
Parker
Neal
Manu
Bonner
Duncan

Last shot:
Parker
Neal
Jackson
Manu
Duncan

...

[DJB]

Neal > Green

[timvp]

Good thread :tu


LJ, do you think there's a chance that in the playoffs as Pop pares down the rotation to 8 or 9 guys that Neal draws the short straw?

I've been paying attention to your ratings and it seems to me you've consistently harped on Neal's defense more than any Spur. With good reason, as he's dead last (http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/plus/plus_minus_finder.cgi?request=1&player_id=&match=single&output=per_poss&year_min=2012&year_max=2012&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&team_id=SAS&opp_id=&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&game_month=&game_location=&game_result=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=ge&c1val=50&c2stat=&c2comp=ge&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=ge&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=ge&c4val=&order_by=opp_pts&order_by_asc=Y) on the team in points allowed per 100 possessions, unless you count Corey Joseph.For Neal to stick in the rotation, I think he's going to have to be the team's backup point guard. If he loses that spot in the rotation to Mills, I don't think he'll be in the everyday playoff rotation. Like you said, shooting guard is just to deep of a position on this team.

Neal is a defensively liability in most matchups but I think he's most useful when allowed to defend backup point guards. There are certain shooting guards he can defend but mostly he's just too short and too slow for that position.

Personally, I think Pop should attempt to keep Neal as the backup point guard if at all possible. Neal's shooting can be a game-changer so it'd be a shame to erase him completely. Mills is an intriguing option but I like him more as a third string point guard.

Actually, how Pop played it last night was perfect: Allow Neal to be the first backup point guard, if he's cold or the other team is taking advantage of his sub par ball-handling, go with Mills.

[Mugen]

Neal's shot would have to completely fall of a cliff for Pop to bench him in favor of Patty

[timvp]

Why?

I checked the last 5 years and Pop always used 12 (or even 13) players, with 10 (or 11) being considered rotation players, and 2 playing very limited minutes.
Last season, Pop used an 8-man rotation in Game 1 and a 9-man rotation the rest of the series. In 2010, he basically went with 8-man rotations. In 2009, it was a 9-man rotation.

This year, it'll probably start as a 9-man rotation but could get cut down to 8-man if any role player is struggling.

[DesignatedT]

Neal/Green is a tough argument though I think I'd rather have Neal. He's proven he can play under the bright lights and his 3 pt shot is ridiculous when on target. Green has struggled with consistency all year and the ability to play good on the road as well. But when Green is on target he is pretty deadly and definitely brings better defense and intangibles compared to Gary.

[T Park]

Pop used a nine man rotation in the last two postseasons, with 4 bigs and 5 perimeter players.

Tony, Manu, Leonard, and Jackson are the top 4 perimeter players. Green is the more complete player and most likely candidate for the 5th slot. Neal's best claim on minutes is as backup PG, otherwise he assumes the 2003 Steve Kerr role.


I 100% support that rotation.

[angelbelow]

Why?

I checked the last 5 years and Pop always used 12 (or even 13) players, with 10 (or 11) being considered rotation players, and 2 playing very limited minutes.

I see no reason why Pop would suddenly dramatically shorten his playoff rotation, especially in a year where the Spurs have more depth than usual.

Using this as a baseline, I'd expect to see the following:
1. Parker
2. Duncan
3. Ginobili
4. Leonard
5. Bonner
6. Splitter
7. Neal
8. Jackson
9. Diaw
10. Blair

11. Green (depending on match-ups)

12. Mills (limited minutes)
13. Anderson (limited minutes)

Are you saying that Pop uses 10+ rotation in the playoffs or regular season? Based on your response I assume you're talking about the regular season but correct me if my assumption is off.

In the regular season, you definitely want to take advantage of your depth. In a condensed season like this one, even James Anderson, the resident 12th is getting playing time every game.

However, the playoffs are a different story. Rosters are reduced to 7 consistent players with the 8th being interchangable. The main reason is that all of our key guys are going to be playing a lot more therefore reducing the minutes available for everyone else.
Some stats from the past 7 post seasons:
-On average, Duncan's minutes go up by about 4 minutes from 32 to 36.
-Our championship 2007 season featured 7 players who played consistently for 20 mpg. Next, we had 3 plays averaging around 10-12 minutes per game. This is what I meant by the "8th" player being situational as I believe that the 8th spot will be a different player depending on match ups, whose hot whose cold, etc etc.
-Our 2005 season was similar, 7 players received over 23+mpg.
-2011: We used closer to an 8 man rotation but our roster was weak and unprepared.
-2010: We used a six players averaging above 25 minutes and 1 Matt Bonner who came in at 17mpg. So roughly 7 players as well.

All in all, playoff rosters are trimmed for a good reason. You want the best on the floor as much as possible. Also, I'm not saying you strictly play 7 players, I'm simply saying that 7 will receive consistent minutes and roles with the 8th/9th/10th getting inconsistent playing time.

[DAF86]

Never, he's our best shooter.

[DAF86]

Last season, Pop used an 8-man rotation in Game 1 and a 9-man rotation the rest of the series. In 2010, he basically went with 8-man rotations. In 2009, it was a 9-man rotation.

This year, it'll probably start as a 9-man rotation but could get cut down to 8-man if any role player is struggling.

Given the circumstances (condensed schedulle, depth) I think Pop will go with a 10 men rotation this playoffs.

[TheSkeptic]

Given the circumstances (condensed schedulle, depth) I think Pop will go with a 10 men rotation this playoffs.

To what benefit though?

I'm as happy about the depth as anyone but in the playoffs you need to play your best players.

The minutes will have to be weighted heavily towards the top 7 with *maybe* your 8 and 9 playing about 10 minutes or so. Too much after that may get the Spurs past the first couple of rounds but it's not going to win number 5.

[the crimson blur]

Minutes in parenthesis PG: Tony (36), Manu (12) SG: Manu (22), Green/Neal (18), Kawhi (8) SF: Kawhi (24), JAX (24) PF: Duncan (24), Bonner/Diaw (18), Splitter (6) C: Blair (30), Splitter (6), Duncan (12) totals (9 man rotation) Tony: 36 Duncan: 36 Manu: 34 Kawhi: 32 Blair: 30 JAX: 24 Green/Neal: 18 Bonner/Diaw: 18 Splitter: 12 is how I tentatively see it. I highly doubt Pop will trust anyone but Manu to run the team for the 12 minutes Tony will be on the bench. Therefore, I don't see any way for Green and Neal to coexist. One will have to make way for the other; to split up the 18 minutes at SG will just wear the talent thin. Pop will most likely choose based on matchups; whether we need shooting (Neal) or defense (Green). I see a similar conflict with Bonner and Diaw. Excluding small ball, the 4 big lineups I expect to see are: Duncan + Blair (24) Bonner/Diaw + Duncan (12) Bonner/Diaw + Splitter (6) Splitter + Blair (6) Splitter+Duncan is way too slow to work, Bonner+Blair is a documented defensive disaster, and I don't think the offensive spacing with Diaw + Blair would be very pretty either. And if we ever run Diaw + Bonner out there, we have bigger problems than minute distribution lol

[TheSkeptic]

Minutes in parenthesis PG: Tony (36), Manu (12) SG: Manu (22), Green/Neal (18), Kawhi (8) SF: Kawhi (24), JAX (24) PF: Duncan (24), Bonner/Diaw (18), Splitter (6) C: Blair (30), Splitter (6), Duncan (12) totals (9 man rotation) Tony: 36 Duncan: 36 Manu: 34 Kawhi: 32 Blair: 30 JAX: 24 Green/Neal: 18 Bonner/Diaw: 18 Splitter: 12 is how I tentatively see it. I highly doubt Pop will trust anyone but Manu to run the team for the 12 minutes Tony will be on the bench. Therefore, I don't see any way for Green and Neal to coexist. One will have to make way for the other; to split up the 18 minutes at SG will just wear the talent thin. Pop will most likely choose based on matchups; whether we need shooting (Neal) or defense (Green). I see a similar conflict with Bonner and Diaw. Excluding small ball, the 4 big lineups I expect to see are: Duncan + Blair (24) Bonner/Diaw + Duncan (12) Bonner/Diaw + Splitter (6) Splitter + Blair (6) Splitter+Duncan is way too slow to work, Bonner+Blair is a documented defensive disaster, and I don't think the offensive spacing with Diaw + Blair would be very pretty either. And if we ever run Diaw + Bonner out there, we have bigger problems than minute distribution lol

I see where you're coming from with this lay-out, but Blair has no business playing 30 minutes/game in the playoffs. Duncan will wear down before the end of the first half and if that happens the Spurs can forget about the Finals.

[DMC]

We cannot win with Bonner, but then we cannot win without Bonner. If we had the defense, we could keep the scores low, but we need Bonner's offense to stay in the game. We use that during the regular season but it doesn't translate to post season wins. Bonner wilts.

[therealtruth]

It's difficult because you want to play your best players the most minutes but you also want to get a boost from your bench.

[cd98]

Hard to say what the playoff rotation is going to look like. Don't forget, we could have injuries or more matchups that require three point shooting. It just depends on situations that we don't know right now.

What we can take solace in is that the Spurs have a lot of options and can match up well with most any team given the diversity of positions we have on the team.

The trick will be to get the new guys familiar enough to trust playing them during key moments in the playoffs.

[TD 21]

It's difficult because you want to play your best players the most minutes but you also want to get a boost from your bench.

The way this team is constructed, don't expect anyone other than Parker to average 35 mpg in the playoffs. I'm thinking 32-34 mpg for Duncan and 30-32 mpg for Ginobili, because of the caliber of backup at center and the overall depth at shooting guard.

Pop is not going to entirely go away from Green; nor should he. Maybe as a round moves along, if he's struggling mightily or their backs are against the wall, you'll see a more condensed rotation. Other than that, he's going to spot him a few minutes here and there. Depending on the match-up and how they're playing, don't be surprised to see him play more than Neal some games. Moving ahead of him in the rotation is unlikely, but not entirely out of the question.

Mills and Anderson, have no chance to crack the rotation. Pop's going to have a difficult enough time playing both Neal and Green as much as he'd probably like to, there's just no way he moves Mills ahead of either. He's strictly around for insurance, in case Parker, Ginobili or Neal, can't go, so that they don't have to count on Joseph.

Really, the only odd man out I see is Blair. If Diaw really struggles, he'll be given a look though. But Green and Blair are quality depth players to have. If this team is going to go four rounds, they're going to need contributions from 11-12 guys. It's not just injuries, some games certain guys are just not going to have energy. You saw it with the Mavs like season, when they had to rely on Mahinmi and Cardinal in Finals games. So to have two rotation caliber players, who are energy type players (particularly when well rested), to go to in that situation, is a luxury.

[DAF86]

To what benefit though?

I'm as happy about the depth as anyone but in the playoffs you need to play your best players.

The minutes will have to be weighted heavily towards the top 7 with *maybe* your 8 and 9 playing about 10 minutes or so. Too much after that may get the Spurs past the first couple of rounds but it's not going to win number 5.

To the benefit of seeing how all the players look at any given night and play more the ones that are performing better in that particular game.

If at the beggining of every game you give the chance to ten players and one or two are underperforming you can cut them from the rotation for the rest of the game and you'll still have an 8 men rotation.

If you go for an 8 men rotation since the begining and one of those players fail to deliver you're fucked 'cause you can't go back to that player that you sent to the doghouse, well you can, but it wouldn't be the same as if he was on a playing rythm.