Hollinger: Sixers '12 champs more likely than Spurs '12 champs

[cheguevara]

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds/_/sort/champsOdds

thoughts?

[stxspurs]

Dumb

[T Park]

Entitled to his opinion, but I fail to see his logic.

[TheSkeptic]

Are you sure that's not because the 76ers have less competition to get through in the East? I mean, they'd have to pull an upset or two but beyond Chicago/Miami there aren't a lot of top tier playoff teams over there. Things are different out West.

[NASpurs]

It's not even his opinion. It's all computer based.

[TimmehC]

The problem with his formulas is that they fail to compensate for all the "rest nights" by the Spurs' best players.

[DBMethos]

There's a reason he's called LOLinger.

[sharkenleo]

Alls I know is I played the NBA playoff predictor yesterday like 10 times, and got Spurs champions more than any other team. :)

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/predictions

[GSH]

Philly is playing in the East. It's a lot harder to survive the first and second rounds in the West. That alone makes it more likely for them to get to the Finals. If you don't get to the Finals, you can't win it all. I'm not surprised that Hollinger would come up with those numbers. It's Hollinger.

[angelbelow]

I can see why. The Sixers are ranked number 1 in a few defensive categories. They're also very effective at scoring the ball and have good depth to their roster.

I don't think they'll make it out of the east but if hes just basing his prediction on numbers then its easy to see why.

[cd98]

Let's hope it's the Spurs and the Sixers in the finals and then we'll see who has the best chance to win.

[ElNono]

http://i44.tinypic.com/x38scm.jpg

[Cant_Be_Faded]

If that Orlando magic team could make it to the finals a few years back, I can believe anything

[jestersmash]

Bear in mind, the 30 point forfeit to Portland (further magnified by the fact that Portland had a near .550 winning percentage at the time) really hurt our average scoring margin.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings

We're at +4.85 for the season right now. Had we won that game by, say, 10 (which isn't totally unreasonable if we had been at full strength and were desperately trying to win that game alone), our overall margin would be nearly a full point higher (~+5.85).

The (arbitrary) mathematical model doesn't make such distinctions. It doesn't take injuries into account. It doesn't recognize "forfeits" or anything of the sort. As far as the model is concerned, our team at "full strength" was trounced by Portland by 30.

[Robz4000]

Like everyone's said, it's based on numbers. Philly hasn't been impressive since the end of February/early March, but the rate at which they were dominating the teams they played in the beginning of the season is still boosting their stats. If the trend continues as it is now they'll drop to a lower chance than the Spurs (provided the Spurs don't suddenly start sucking). There's also that the competition in the East is shit outside of Miami and Chicago, while the West seeds 1-8 all have a fair chance.

[CitizenDwayne]

Don't see it happening, but a Sixers-Spurs Finals matchup would be awesome to see, from a basketball perspective.

But crushing Lebron's dreams again would be ideal.

[dbestpro]

More tears for fears. The more close the Spurs get the more they are going to cry for fear of the Spurs winning it all.

[gambit1990]

according to that, new york has better odds of winning it all than the reigning champs :lol

[ALVAREZ6]

It's not even his opinion. It's all computer based.

What he said.

It's just the Trollinger formula. The whole point of it is precisely to take opinion/subjectivity out of it. I find it flawed, however, that the Sixers have the 4th highest probability to win it all when the top two teams, at about twice as high a probability to win compared to Sixers, are in the same conference. That alone should be weighed in and bring down their chances.

[Seventyniner]

The Sixers have a better chance of taking down the Heat, Bulls, AND the West champ than the Spurs do of beating one of LAL/DAL/MEM, then OKC, and then the East champ? Both Miami and Chicago are better than the Thunder according to this model, so having to beat 1 of CHI/MIA should be easier than having to beat both.

I guess that early season scoring margin matters that much to LOLlinger.

[8FOR!3]

I think the whole thing is a flawed idea. I see where it's coming from though. The Spurs have a bigger chance of making it to the Finals, because their biggest threat is OKC. Philadelphia has less of a chance to make it, because there's Miami AND Chicago. But if they do make it there, they've got less top teams to worry about. But I still think all 8 of the teams in the West projected to make the playoffs can beat the 76ers.

[DMC]

:lol Arguing against Hollinger

He's Captain Hindsight, because his stats only mean anything at the end of the season.

W/L record and SOS mean a lot, but point diff means nothing when you consider how skewed it can be when teams like the Spurs play the bench when up big or down big in the 4th. Other teams don't, they play their starters until 2 minutes left in the game so they can stat pad.

More people here know the score than Hollinger, I doubt he's watched a game in years.

[DMC]

I think the whole thing is a flawed idea. I see where it's coming from though. The Spurs have a bigger chance of making it to the Finals, because their biggest threat is OKC. Philadelphia has less of a chance to make it, because there's Miami AND Chicago. But if they do make it there, they've got less top teams to worry about. But I still think all 8 of the teams in the West projected to make the playoffs can beat the 76ers.
Half the teams in the West who won't make the playoffs can beat the 76ers.

[Hoops Czar]

Bear in mind, the 30 point forfeit to Portland (further magnified by the fact that Portland had a near .550 winning percentage at the time) really hurt our average scoring margin.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings

We're at +4.85 for the season right now. Had we won that game by, say, 10 (which isn't totally unreasonable if we had been at full strength and were desperately trying to win that game alone), our overall margin would be nearly a full point higher (~+5.85).

The (arbitrary) mathematical model doesn't make such distinctions. It doesn't take injuries into account. It doesn't recognize "forfeits" or anything of the sort. As far as the model is concerned, our team at "full strength" was trounced by Portland by 30.

The East as a whole is weaker than the West. Hollinger puts too much emphasis on margin of victory. Sacramento, sitting 14th in the west would be competing for the 8th seed in the east. Teams on the top of the eastern conference are getting fat off the Charlotte's, Washington's, Toronro's and New Jersey's of the world. Put either Chicago or Miami in the west and their record and margin of victory wouldn't nearly be as impressive.

[therealtruth]

Bear in mind, the 30 point forfeit to Portland (further magnified by the fact that Portland had a near .550 winning percentage at the time) really hurt our average scoring margin.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings

We're at +4.85 for the season right now. Had we won that game by, say, 10 (which isn't totally unreasonable if we had been at full strength and were desperately trying to win that game alone), our overall margin would be nearly a full point higher (~+5.85).

The (arbitrary) mathematical model doesn't make such distinctions. It doesn't take injuries into account. It doesn't recognize "forfeits" or anything of the sort. As far as the model is concerned, our team at "full strength" was trounced by Portland by 30.

That's why you don't forfeit.

[therealtruth]

The Sixers are trying to use the Pistons 2004 model, a team with no stars. Those Pistons had four allstars though.

[Budkin]

Is Hollinger ever right?

[ffadicted]

and basketball games are won on paper

[Bartleby]

That's why you don't forfeit.


You don't forfeit so you can get a higher place in Hollinger's rankings?

:downspin:

[will_spurs]

The Sixers play Charlottes 4 times, so that helps them when it comes to margin of victory.

[Cry Havoc]

It's Hollinger. Anyone who's been paying attention knows that the 6ers have zero shot at a title this year. None. The Celtics probably have a better chance of winning it all.

[timvp]

That's why you don't forfeit.

http://dailyelements.com/popserious.jpg

[housious]

I'm drunk

[slick'81]

well that settles it

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

The Hollinger Regular Season Trophy is slipping away. This is a disaster.

[pgardn]

That's why you don't forfeit.

What?

You dont forfeit to get a higher Hollinger ranking? Does he give a flat basketball trophy for winning in his system?


Oops. Sorry.
I realize this was addressed fully on the 2nd page.
I get flagged for an unnecessary dogpile.

[Wild Cobra Kai]

That's why you don't forfeit.

Why? So you can do better in some Hollinger model and win one meaningless game out of 66 instead of getting needed rest for a thin (at the time) roster?

Putz.

[Wild Cobra Kai]

Models are useful.
Models are wrong.

They lose their effectiveness when their samples are too small or they try to be too specific.

[100%duncan]

Don't care

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Bear in mind, the 30 point forfeit to Portland (further magnified by the fact that Portland had a near .550 winning percentage at the time) really hurt our average scoring margin.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings

We're at +4.85 for the season right now. Had we won that game by, say, 10 (which isn't totally unreasonable if we had been at full strength and were desperately trying to win that game alone), our overall margin would be nearly a full point higher (~+5.85).

The (arbitrary) mathematical model doesn't make such distinctions. It doesn't take injuries into account. It doesn't recognize "forfeits" or anything of the sort. As far as the model is concerned, our team at "full strength" was trounced by Portland by 30.

He tries to model seasons. The problem is this season is not like other seasons so the model sucks.

[Spurtacus]

Damn. We should tank.

[Borosai]

It's time:

http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/9979/sthollingerboardgl9.jpg

[PublicOption]

Here we go again with that shit......I learned to say fuck em and bring on the

:lobt:

[Sean Cagney]

Fuck yo computer stats punk!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Aztecfan03]

according to the odds right now, if the Sixers make finals, they have almost 61% chance of winning.

The spurs have a higher chance of going to the finals than the sixers, but the odds of winning it once they get there are about 40%.

His makes some sense, since the west will have to face miami or chicago in most scenarios.

But i think the spurs chance of making the finals should be a lot higher.

[TampaDude]

If the Spurs make the Finals, they will win it all. They don't lose in the Finals, period.

[Proxy]

I mean, yeah... the odds will be up if the first round is guaranteed victory.

[Agloco]

Bear in mind, the 30 point forfeit to Portland (further magnified by the fact that Portland had a near .550 winning percentage at the time) really hurt our average scoring margin.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings

We're at +4.85 for the season right now. Had we won that game by, say, 10 (which isn't totally unreasonable if we had been at full strength and were desperately trying to win that game alone), our overall margin would be nearly a full point higher (~+5.85).

The (arbitrary) mathematical model doesn't make such distinctions. It doesn't take injuries into account. It doesn't recognize "forfeits" or anything of the sort. As far as the model is concerned, our team at "full strength" was trounced by Portland by 30.

We actually lost by 40, so a buzzer beater would have gotten it done as well.

[703 Spurz]

Right so when Philly loses in the 1st or 2nd round, that automatically eliminates the Spurs.

Makes a whole lot of sense