Uriel
04-03-2012, 03:48 AM
Looking for another Mr. Wright (By John Hollinger)
http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2012/0401/nba_g_bwrightts_576.jpg
Brandan Wright was essentially unwanted a year ago. Included as a throw-in to a Golden State-New Jersey trade, out of the rotation and injured (uhhh-gain), he was near the bottom of most team's lists of free-agent targets.
Now? He's pushing the reigning NBA Finals MVP for the team lead in PER, narrowly trailing a certain German by 22.06 to 21.72. While this comparison flatters Mr. Wright rather generously -- he has to be spotted in zone defenses or against non-scorers because he can't handle anybody even remotely physical, and his 64.9 true shooting percentage is likely to regress earthward -- there's no question that Dallas has found enormous value in a scrap-heap pickup.
The Mavericks are likely to continue receiving value into the future too, as they smartly tagged a team portion for next year onto Wright's minimum-contract deal -- making him far and away the biggest steal from last season's free-agent market.
This wasn't just blind luck, though. Wright had two characteristics that marked him as a potential high-reward free agent: 1) He was thought of highly enough to be a lottery pick in 2007, and 2) his per-minute numbers as an NBA player have always been good; he just kept getting injured and couldn't overcome the Warriors' phenomenal capacity for eating their young.
Which takes us to this coming summer, and the obvious question: Who might this year's Brandan Wright be? Or, more generally, which low-cost potential free agents out there might provide outsized value a year from now?
Skimming through the league's potential free agents, here are a few we've picked out that meet several of the criteria and should be available for the midlevel exception or less. You can call it my "Mr. Wright" Team:
Jason Thompson, Sacramento. The most expensive player on this list, Thompson meets two important criteria: He's a former lottery pick, and his development has been hampered by a bad organization that on two occasions tried to convert the 6-foot-11 board beast into a small forward.
Thompson has shown some strides this season too, posting five straight double-doubles before spraining his ankle two weeks ago, and this wasn't the cheap 11-and-10 stuff -- he had at least 19 and 15 three times and shot an impressive 38-of-58 for the stretch. For the season he sports a career-high PER, and while he's a restricted free agent he may be attainable depending on the Kings' approach to their cap space.
Marreese Speights, Memphis: If you're looking for flaws, Speights has them. He shoots nearly every time he gets the ball, he doesn't defend with much enthusiasm, and he's had trouble with conditioning. He's also seen his PER decline in each of his four pro seasons, and we're not sure what was going through his mind when this picture (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/player/hollinger/_/id/3460/marreese-speights) was taken.
On the other hand ... he rebounds like a 5 (Rebound Rate over 16 each of the past two seasons), he has the size to play the position, and his deadly midrange J can be a huge floor-spacing weapon. Speights is only 24 and had a PER above the league average in each of his first three pro seasons; he's barely under the 15.00 league average at 14.53 this season. It's possible his negatives overwhelm the positives, but as a value signing there's a lot to like here.
Alonzo Gee, Cleveland: Unlike the other guys on this list, Gee wasn't a lottery pick -- in fact he went undrafted. But he's done a lot of work since to make himself into a two-way weapon at the small forward spot, and at 24 he can still get better. He's improved enough as an outside shooter for opponents to respect him, though his 3-point stroke remains a work in progress, plus he's a beastly rebounder for his size and has the strength and athleticism to defend most 3s despite being an inch or two short for the position.
None of that would lead me to shower him with riches, but the potential for improvement and the solid play this season make him another strong value candidate.
Omer Asik, Chicago: Oh, you thought you'd get out of here without some Asik props? Think again. Despite Chef Linguini's propensity for horrible turnovers and maddening inability to make a free throw, he's become even better in several other respects. Asik boasts a dominant 19.8 rebound rate, rejects nearly three shots per 40 minutes, and has a respectable 13.81 PER.
But I love Asik because of his defense. He and Taj Gibson combine to shut down opponents when they come in off the bench. Last season the Bulls gave up 9.85 fewer points per 100 possessions with Asik in the game; this season that figure is 7.70. What makes that number so amazing is that Asik was replacing Joakim Noah, who is a darned good defensive center. But Asik takes things up another notch.
He's a restricted free agent, and historically teams have been reluctant to pay for guys with a career scoring average of 3.0. But he'll be a bargain.
Goran Dragic, Houston: Dragic's talent was clear even while he was regressing for Phoenix last season. And now that Kyle Lowry is out, he's showing it. In 14 games as a starter, he's averaging 17.1 points, 9.1 assists and 1.9 steals and is shooting 52.1 percent from the floor while helping to keep the ragtag Rockets in the Western Conference playoff race. (Quick reminder: Phoenix traded Dragic and a first-rounder to Houston last February for Aaron Brooks).
Dragic can be a bit erratic, and having the best sustained stretch of his career heading into contract time may strike some as a bit suspicious. But he's big and athletic for the position, he's 25, and he's still developing as a shooter. He won't come as cheaply as Wright, but he could pay big dividends.
Jerryd Bayless, Toronto: Bayless is working on his third team and hasn't gained much career traction in his four pro seasons, but he was quietly having a good year in Toronto before a torn oblique muscle ended his season last week. He's averaging a point every two minutes with a solid TS% (56.1), and he's not just jacking either -- he's averaged nearly seven assists per 40 minutes over the past two seasons.
While he'll never be a pure point guard, his knack for getting to the basket and drawing fouls has been complemented this season by a spike to 42.3 percent on 3s. Bayless has "Mr. Wright" potential on other levels too. He was a lottery pick, he's been traded twice, and he is still only 23. The combination of his injury and his playing in Toronto may leave him well under the radar this summer, but as a high-scoring combo guard he's one to keep an eye on.
Brandon Rush, Golden State: He's a little old for this list at 26, but scouts have always been fond of Rush's athleticism. Additionally, the 2008 lottery pick always had solid defensive chops; it was his other numbers that got him in trouble. Rush had a maddening tendency to vanish into thin air -- he was the master of the 40-minute, two-point, one-rebound effort in Indiana -- Rush has concentrated on his 3-point shot in Golden State to great effect.
He's at 44.4 percent from long range this season while taking half his shots from there; he's now at 41.0 percent for his career. A career 41 percent 3-point shooter who defends? I'd say that's a weapon a lot of teams could use as a role-playing wingman, especially if he's also converting more than half his 2-pointers, as he has this season.
Ian Mahinmi, Dallas: It would be somewhat ironic if next year's Brandan Wright is made expendable by this year's Brandan Wright. A developmental pick by the Spurs in 2005, it's hard to believe Mahinmi is still only 25. He's made slow but steady progress when he hasn't been injured, but Wright is crowding him out of minutes in the Mavericks' frontcourt.
Nonetheless, Mahinmi has value as a big man who can finish (TS% above 60 in all four pro seasons), make short jumpers and rebound. While he's a bit between a 4 and a 5 (a problem he shares with Thompson), he's a valuable rotation big man now and may still get better.
Gerald Green, New Jersey: Green had no idea how to play basketball when he came into the league out of high school, which is why he washed out despite superb athleticism after Boston drafted him 18th overall in 2005.
Now that he's 26 and has had some seasoning in the D-League, Green has been electrifying. He's averaging a point every two minutes for the Nets, shooting 37.3 percent on 3s and delivering at least one highlight-reel jam per game. The 6-8 small forward has always had elite athleticism; now that he's combined it with a solid jumper and improved basketball acumen, he's become among the league's most potent bench scorers. He's off the radar in New Jersey, but his elite athleticism makes him a great value candidate this summer.
Anthony Randolph, Minnesota: Probably the closest comp to Wright in terms of body type and history, Randolph ran into trouble after showing initial promise in Golden State and attitude questions have dogged him in stops in New York and Minnesota.
But as a value free agent, he has Mr. Wright potential because of his ability to finish at the basket and block shots -- just like Wright. He's 22, like Wright was a year ago. And like Wright, he's thought lowly of despite never having a PER below the league average. Doesn't mean he'll turn out like Wright, especially if he doesn't go to a strong organization. But the potential is there.
Danny Green, San Antonio: I hadn't understood why Green didn't get more attention before this season; he'd produced everywhere he'd played but didn't show the eye-popping athleticism that gets a player into a scout's notebook. Green has been this year's honorable mention Brandan Wright, starting 22 games for one of the league's best teams and hitting 38.7 percent of his 3s. He's produced at both ends, too, often guarding opponents' top perimeter threats and rebounding far better than most 6-6 guards.
Green is 24 and will be a free agent again this summer; while he may not stay under the radar depending on how the Spurs do in the playoffs, right now he wins the title of most anonymous contributor to an elite team.
Hasheem Thabeet, Portland: OK, let me end this with the most far-out suggestion of all: I still think Thabeet can be a productive NBA big man, and he'll probably be available on a minimum contract this summer. Clearly, picking him second overall three years ago was a bit overenthusiastic, and whatever team gets him will have to nurture some shaken confidence. But he has an overwhelming NBA skill with a career average of 3.3 blocks per 40 minutes, he finishes shots around the basket, and he can make a 10-footer.
When you tick off those skills it doesn't sound too dissimilar from Brandan Wright, actually -- another long, slender big man who was pounded by big centers but found a niche playing in zones. Thabeet's value will be in those alignments as well, and at 7-3 he'll be an imposing figure if he can stay close to the basket.
Honorable mention: John Lucas III, Chicago; Delonte West, Dallas; Donte' Greene, Sacramento; Jordan Hill, L.A. Lakers; Kyrylo Fesenko, Indiana.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/PERDiem-120402/nba-crop-possible-value-free-agents
http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2012/0401/nba_g_bwrightts_576.jpg
Brandan Wright was essentially unwanted a year ago. Included as a throw-in to a Golden State-New Jersey trade, out of the rotation and injured (uhhh-gain), he was near the bottom of most team's lists of free-agent targets.
Now? He's pushing the reigning NBA Finals MVP for the team lead in PER, narrowly trailing a certain German by 22.06 to 21.72. While this comparison flatters Mr. Wright rather generously -- he has to be spotted in zone defenses or against non-scorers because he can't handle anybody even remotely physical, and his 64.9 true shooting percentage is likely to regress earthward -- there's no question that Dallas has found enormous value in a scrap-heap pickup.
The Mavericks are likely to continue receiving value into the future too, as they smartly tagged a team portion for next year onto Wright's minimum-contract deal -- making him far and away the biggest steal from last season's free-agent market.
This wasn't just blind luck, though. Wright had two characteristics that marked him as a potential high-reward free agent: 1) He was thought of highly enough to be a lottery pick in 2007, and 2) his per-minute numbers as an NBA player have always been good; he just kept getting injured and couldn't overcome the Warriors' phenomenal capacity for eating their young.
Which takes us to this coming summer, and the obvious question: Who might this year's Brandan Wright be? Or, more generally, which low-cost potential free agents out there might provide outsized value a year from now?
Skimming through the league's potential free agents, here are a few we've picked out that meet several of the criteria and should be available for the midlevel exception or less. You can call it my "Mr. Wright" Team:
Jason Thompson, Sacramento. The most expensive player on this list, Thompson meets two important criteria: He's a former lottery pick, and his development has been hampered by a bad organization that on two occasions tried to convert the 6-foot-11 board beast into a small forward.
Thompson has shown some strides this season too, posting five straight double-doubles before spraining his ankle two weeks ago, and this wasn't the cheap 11-and-10 stuff -- he had at least 19 and 15 three times and shot an impressive 38-of-58 for the stretch. For the season he sports a career-high PER, and while he's a restricted free agent he may be attainable depending on the Kings' approach to their cap space.
Marreese Speights, Memphis: If you're looking for flaws, Speights has them. He shoots nearly every time he gets the ball, he doesn't defend with much enthusiasm, and he's had trouble with conditioning. He's also seen his PER decline in each of his four pro seasons, and we're not sure what was going through his mind when this picture (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/player/hollinger/_/id/3460/marreese-speights) was taken.
On the other hand ... he rebounds like a 5 (Rebound Rate over 16 each of the past two seasons), he has the size to play the position, and his deadly midrange J can be a huge floor-spacing weapon. Speights is only 24 and had a PER above the league average in each of his first three pro seasons; he's barely under the 15.00 league average at 14.53 this season. It's possible his negatives overwhelm the positives, but as a value signing there's a lot to like here.
Alonzo Gee, Cleveland: Unlike the other guys on this list, Gee wasn't a lottery pick -- in fact he went undrafted. But he's done a lot of work since to make himself into a two-way weapon at the small forward spot, and at 24 he can still get better. He's improved enough as an outside shooter for opponents to respect him, though his 3-point stroke remains a work in progress, plus he's a beastly rebounder for his size and has the strength and athleticism to defend most 3s despite being an inch or two short for the position.
None of that would lead me to shower him with riches, but the potential for improvement and the solid play this season make him another strong value candidate.
Omer Asik, Chicago: Oh, you thought you'd get out of here without some Asik props? Think again. Despite Chef Linguini's propensity for horrible turnovers and maddening inability to make a free throw, he's become even better in several other respects. Asik boasts a dominant 19.8 rebound rate, rejects nearly three shots per 40 minutes, and has a respectable 13.81 PER.
But I love Asik because of his defense. He and Taj Gibson combine to shut down opponents when they come in off the bench. Last season the Bulls gave up 9.85 fewer points per 100 possessions with Asik in the game; this season that figure is 7.70. What makes that number so amazing is that Asik was replacing Joakim Noah, who is a darned good defensive center. But Asik takes things up another notch.
He's a restricted free agent, and historically teams have been reluctant to pay for guys with a career scoring average of 3.0. But he'll be a bargain.
Goran Dragic, Houston: Dragic's talent was clear even while he was regressing for Phoenix last season. And now that Kyle Lowry is out, he's showing it. In 14 games as a starter, he's averaging 17.1 points, 9.1 assists and 1.9 steals and is shooting 52.1 percent from the floor while helping to keep the ragtag Rockets in the Western Conference playoff race. (Quick reminder: Phoenix traded Dragic and a first-rounder to Houston last February for Aaron Brooks).
Dragic can be a bit erratic, and having the best sustained stretch of his career heading into contract time may strike some as a bit suspicious. But he's big and athletic for the position, he's 25, and he's still developing as a shooter. He won't come as cheaply as Wright, but he could pay big dividends.
Jerryd Bayless, Toronto: Bayless is working on his third team and hasn't gained much career traction in his four pro seasons, but he was quietly having a good year in Toronto before a torn oblique muscle ended his season last week. He's averaging a point every two minutes with a solid TS% (56.1), and he's not just jacking either -- he's averaged nearly seven assists per 40 minutes over the past two seasons.
While he'll never be a pure point guard, his knack for getting to the basket and drawing fouls has been complemented this season by a spike to 42.3 percent on 3s. Bayless has "Mr. Wright" potential on other levels too. He was a lottery pick, he's been traded twice, and he is still only 23. The combination of his injury and his playing in Toronto may leave him well under the radar this summer, but as a high-scoring combo guard he's one to keep an eye on.
Brandon Rush, Golden State: He's a little old for this list at 26, but scouts have always been fond of Rush's athleticism. Additionally, the 2008 lottery pick always had solid defensive chops; it was his other numbers that got him in trouble. Rush had a maddening tendency to vanish into thin air -- he was the master of the 40-minute, two-point, one-rebound effort in Indiana -- Rush has concentrated on his 3-point shot in Golden State to great effect.
He's at 44.4 percent from long range this season while taking half his shots from there; he's now at 41.0 percent for his career. A career 41 percent 3-point shooter who defends? I'd say that's a weapon a lot of teams could use as a role-playing wingman, especially if he's also converting more than half his 2-pointers, as he has this season.
Ian Mahinmi, Dallas: It would be somewhat ironic if next year's Brandan Wright is made expendable by this year's Brandan Wright. A developmental pick by the Spurs in 2005, it's hard to believe Mahinmi is still only 25. He's made slow but steady progress when he hasn't been injured, but Wright is crowding him out of minutes in the Mavericks' frontcourt.
Nonetheless, Mahinmi has value as a big man who can finish (TS% above 60 in all four pro seasons), make short jumpers and rebound. While he's a bit between a 4 and a 5 (a problem he shares with Thompson), he's a valuable rotation big man now and may still get better.
Gerald Green, New Jersey: Green had no idea how to play basketball when he came into the league out of high school, which is why he washed out despite superb athleticism after Boston drafted him 18th overall in 2005.
Now that he's 26 and has had some seasoning in the D-League, Green has been electrifying. He's averaging a point every two minutes for the Nets, shooting 37.3 percent on 3s and delivering at least one highlight-reel jam per game. The 6-8 small forward has always had elite athleticism; now that he's combined it with a solid jumper and improved basketball acumen, he's become among the league's most potent bench scorers. He's off the radar in New Jersey, but his elite athleticism makes him a great value candidate this summer.
Anthony Randolph, Minnesota: Probably the closest comp to Wright in terms of body type and history, Randolph ran into trouble after showing initial promise in Golden State and attitude questions have dogged him in stops in New York and Minnesota.
But as a value free agent, he has Mr. Wright potential because of his ability to finish at the basket and block shots -- just like Wright. He's 22, like Wright was a year ago. And like Wright, he's thought lowly of despite never having a PER below the league average. Doesn't mean he'll turn out like Wright, especially if he doesn't go to a strong organization. But the potential is there.
Danny Green, San Antonio: I hadn't understood why Green didn't get more attention before this season; he'd produced everywhere he'd played but didn't show the eye-popping athleticism that gets a player into a scout's notebook. Green has been this year's honorable mention Brandan Wright, starting 22 games for one of the league's best teams and hitting 38.7 percent of his 3s. He's produced at both ends, too, often guarding opponents' top perimeter threats and rebounding far better than most 6-6 guards.
Green is 24 and will be a free agent again this summer; while he may not stay under the radar depending on how the Spurs do in the playoffs, right now he wins the title of most anonymous contributor to an elite team.
Hasheem Thabeet, Portland: OK, let me end this with the most far-out suggestion of all: I still think Thabeet can be a productive NBA big man, and he'll probably be available on a minimum contract this summer. Clearly, picking him second overall three years ago was a bit overenthusiastic, and whatever team gets him will have to nurture some shaken confidence. But he has an overwhelming NBA skill with a career average of 3.3 blocks per 40 minutes, he finishes shots around the basket, and he can make a 10-footer.
When you tick off those skills it doesn't sound too dissimilar from Brandan Wright, actually -- another long, slender big man who was pounded by big centers but found a niche playing in zones. Thabeet's value will be in those alignments as well, and at 7-3 he'll be an imposing figure if he can stay close to the basket.
Honorable mention: John Lucas III, Chicago; Delonte West, Dallas; Donte' Greene, Sacramento; Jordan Hill, L.A. Lakers; Kyrylo Fesenko, Indiana.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/PERDiem-120402/nba-crop-possible-value-free-agents