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timvp
04-03-2012, 04:28 PM
Fifty games into the 2011-12 season, the San Antonio Spurs are 36-14 and sit in second place in the Western Conference. In their last 29 games, the Spurs are 24-5. Here's a look at the grades for each player based on expectations coming into the season.

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Tim Duncan B+

The Good: Since Feb. 1, Tim Duncan is averaging 17.1 points and 10.2 rebounds with a PER of 24.2. To put that in perspective, those numbers put him back at the level he played at from 2008 through 2010. Subjectively, Duncan is moving and running really well -- a massive improvement from the first few weeks of the regular season. On offense, he has played closer to the basket in the last two months and his post-up game is still capable of supplying the Spurs with key baskets in big moments. Playing closer to the hoop has also resulted in Duncan going to the line 6.2 times per 36 minutes in February and March, a rate he achieved only once since the last championship (6.4 in 2009). Defensively, his individual post defense has been great and Duncan is still one of the best bigs in the league at defending the rim. Rebounding-wise, Duncan is pulling down defensive boards at a career-high rate.

The Bad: On the season, Duncan is shooting a career-low 47.1% from the field. Even during his hot stretch of the last two months, it's still only 47.8%. His offensive rebounding and blocks are also at or near career-low rates. On offense, he can no longer consistently create quality shots for himself in the paint; Duncan can still do it from time to time but it's far from automatic. He also relies on his outside jumper more than ever. Defensively, his pick-and-roll defense hasn't been good and his age has robbed him of any quickness on the perimeter. And it shouldn't be totally forgotten that Duncan looked old and tired in December and January.

The Question: Can Tim Duncan keep it up? Since Feb. 1, he has been able to turn back the clock. It wouldn't be outrageous to say he hasn't played better since the 2007 championship run. But in each of the last four seasons, Duncan has peaked during the regular season. This year, if the Spurs have any hope at getting a fifth ring, the team needs Duncan to keep playing at this level for the next two and a half months.

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Manu Ginobili B+

The Good: Manu Ginobili has been absolutely magical on the offensive end of the court. The Spurs are averaging 120 points per 100 possessions he has been on the court this season. That's by far the highest mark of any player in the NBA (James Harden is second at 116.58). His field goal percentage (52.4%), three-point percentage (44.3%) and assists per 36 minutes (7.1) are all career highs. Ginobili's PER (23.5) is his highest since 2008 and has remained consistently high throughout his injury woes.

The Bad: Defensively, Ginobili has yet to find his legs. The Spurs allow 109 points per 100 possessions he's on the court, the worst mark of any player outside of Cory Joseph. His closeouts on shooters have been a step slow and he hasn't been able to consistently stay in front of his man. Offensively, even though his shooting percentages are through the roof, Ginobili is scoring only 19.4 points per 36 minutes -- his lowest mark since his second year in the NBA. He's also relying on three-pointers more than ever, with 48% of his attempts coming from beyond the three-point arc.

The Question: Can Manu Ginobili stay healthy? He hasn't had a healthy playoff run since 2007. This season, his frequent trips to the injury report haven't done anything to quell those fears. If he's healthy, Ginobili is undoubtedly a huge asset -- especially on offense. But, unfortunately, it's far from certain.

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Tony Parker A

The Good: Tony Parker has been the team's best player this season. After a relatively slow start to the season, Parker has a PER of 22.9 since Jan. 11. On the season, Parker is averaging a career-high in all of the assists related stats including assist-to-turnover ratio (3-to-1). He's also averaging his most points since 2009 and has posted a career-high free throw percentage of 79.4%. Offensively, as the stats suggest, Parker has been facilitating better than ever. He has mastered the art of when to pass and when to shoot. Parker also shows much more patience, smarts and leadership on the offensive end this season. When it comes to scoring, the Frenchman is best in the fourth quarter when he averages 25.4 points per 36 minutes on 50.3% shooting from the field and 86.8% shooting from the line. On the season, he's also getting to the free throw line more than ever (5.5 free throw attempts per 36 minutes). Defensively, Parker is having a fine season. Opponents are averaging only 101 points per 100 possessions with Parker on the court, the best mark on the team. While he doesn't always stop his man from producing or always play with the appropriate amount of energy on D, Parker's defense is usually near perfect in terms of following the gameplan.

The Bad: Parker's field goal percentage of 47.4% is his lowest since 2004. And though he's shooting more three-pointers than any season since 2005, his percentage (26.4%) is very poor. While he has only missed three games this season, Parker has already dealt with a number of minor injuries. The fact that he has played 34 minutes per game in this shortened season has to be considered a negative.

The Question: Is Tony Parker ready to be The Man? Whether he wants to admit it or not, these Spurs are built around him more than any team in franchise history. Parker needs to be selfish enough to realize that fact and brave enough to embrace it. The Spurs won't go anywhere in the playoffs unless Parker is great. So far, there are some worrisome signs. For example, when Parker is on the court with Ginobili, while his assists go up his scoring goes down 2.7 points per 36 minutes and his field goal percentage drops to 41%.

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Kawhi Leonard A

The Good: Kawhi Leonard's very good play this season has undoubtedly been the biggest surprise of the season thus far. While there is a lot of good regarding Leonard, his recent play has to be the most encouraging news of all. In the past 17 games, he has a PER of 21.7 to go along with averages of 11.3 points and 6.4 rebounds in 27.5 minutes per game, while shooting 56.8% from the floor, 43.9% on three-pointers and 84.6% from the line. Offensively, he has found a niche as a player who runs the court, slashes into the lane through the backdoor and takes spot-up three-pointers. As the season has progressed, we have seen Leonard become increasingly more aggressive and confident on offense. Defensively, he's dedicated to the craft and he doesn't back down against top competition. On the boards, he's an elite rebounding swingman on both ends of the court. Overall, he's just a very productive player who makes very few mistakes.

The Bad: While the effort is usually there on defense, his success on that end of the court has been mixed. For the season, the Spurs actually give up 2.46 more points per 100 possessions with Leonard on the court. Offensively, he has stretches of passive play in which he's satisfied to blend into the background. He's also not someone who can create his own offense or make plays with court vision. While he has above average handles for a small forward, he needs to be on the receiving end of passes to have success.

The Question: Can Kawhi Leonard avoid hitting the rookie wall? Last season at San Diego State, he played 1,172 minutes. This year, he has already played 1,216 minutes. Since he has already become a key cog in San Antonio's machine, the Spurs can't afford for him to run out of gas before the finish line.

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Danny Green B+

The Good: He entered the season as an afterthought but Danny Green has started 22 games this season, including the last ten contests. Offensively, he's a streaky three-point shooter who hits for a very solid overall percentage (38.7%). For a shooting guard, he passes reasonably well and limits mistakes. He's not a great ball-handler but he's good enough to play point guard in a pinch. Green is willing to attack the basket and has authored a few memorable moments in the clutch. Defensively, the third year guard has been an asset. His length and tenacity make him a good one-on-one defender. Green is also a surprisingly good shotblocker who rebounds very well for his position. With more polish, he has a chance to become a high-end perimeter defender.

The Bad: Green had a weak stretch of game in the middle of the season but he seems to have recovered as of late. On offense, he's not a good finisher; his floater is especially weak. His shot selection could also improve. On the defensive end, he has one glaring flaw: an inability to maneuver around screens. It's bad enough that if Green doesn't figure it out, it could end up being his undoing as an NBA player. Overall, he's not a fluid basketball player and isn't blessed with a ton of natural ability.

The Question: Can Danny Green keep his spot in the rotation? For now, he's the starter at shooting guard. However, his streakiness combined with the quality of players behind him on the bench could eventually lead the coaches to make a move. Then again, if he can keep knocking down three-pointers and become reliable on the defensive end, Green could end up playing a lot of minutes down the stretch of the season.

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Gary Neal C+

The Good: Gary Neal has been forced to play a lot more point guard this season and he has done well on the offensive end. He increased his assists by 57.1% over last season while keeping his turnovers steady. While his three-point percentage is down from last year, his 39.2% shooting from deep is still very good. Neal has shown more and more of an ability to create shots from himself and others. He's effective in pick-and-roll sets and is deceptively quick when going to the basket. In money time, Neal has no problem stepping up and shooting jumpers with confidence. Defensively, Neal's fouling is down 31.3%.

The Bad: Neal's biggest problem is on the defensive end. No matter how you judge him, he's just a really bad defensive player. At point guard, he's too slow to stay in front of most players. At shooting guard, he's too short to contest jumpers. He also lacks good instincts on that end, especially when the defense is scrambling. Offensively, while he shot 48.1% on two-pointers last season, he's shooting only 42.7% on two-pointers this year. His free throw percentage is also down (80.8% to 73.5%), plus he's getting to the line less often. When at PG, Neal is a below average ball-handler, with below average court vision and below average shot selection. It should be mentioned that Neal got off to a slow start this season due at least partly to a preseason appendectomy.

The Question: Can Gary Neal keep his backup point guard job? Despite the fact that he doesn't appear to be a point guard, the numbers show that he has done a really good job on the offensive end when running the show. He needs to keep that up while also figuring out how to play defense against point guards. Right now, he's such a liability on the defensive end that the coaches may be forced to remove him from the rotation at some point.

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DeJuan Blair C-

The Good: On offense, DeJuan Blair does a lot well. He's really good at scoring in the paint. His hands are good and he's a far above average passer for a bigman. His field goal percentage of 53% is very good and Blair is difficult to keep off of the offensive glass. Perhaps his best asset of all is the amount of chemistry he has playing next to Duncan on the offensive end.

The Bad: Defense. All of it. Blair is simply a very bad defender in all aspects. He can't defend on the perimeter. He's not good down low. He can't defend pick-and-rolls. His defensive rebounding ability has plummeted to the point where he's a liability on the boards. Blair being short and not overly quick dooms him on defense. Add in bad defensive instincts and you have the recipe that has created one of the worst defensive bigmen in the NBA. On offense, Blair tends to be out of control too often. His shot selection is iffy and he just doesn't play a smart brand of basketball. Blair's lack of a jumper also really hurts the spacing on the court.

The Question: Is DeJuan Blair willing to come off the bench? Though he has started every game this season, Blair is simply not a starting quality bigman in the NBA. His lack of height is too exploitable as a starter, as is his lack of defense. Unfortunately, Blair sulked last season after being benched near the end of the season. The coaching staff might think twice about going down that road even if they believe it's the right move for the team because they don't want to totally remove his production. Hopefully one day Blair realizes that his main value in this league will be as bench big who can physically overwhelm the opposing reserves.

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Matt Bonner B+

The Good: Matt Bonner is still shooting lights out. His 44.7% shooting on threes is fantastic. He has mastered a dribble move that allows him to counter defenders who are closing out hard. Bonner's turnovers are at a microscopic level and he's just a very low mistake player in general. On defense, he's solid in most areas. He can defend pick-and-rolls, move quick enough to go out on the perimeter, guard the low block and his defensive rebounding is actually the best it's been since 2009. Overall, his ability to be a competent defender on one end and spread the court on the other end makes Bonner a really valuable player is San Antonio's system.

The Bad: To tackle the elephant in the room first, let's just say that Bonner hasn't done anything during clutch-time this season to dispel the worries that he will once again shrink in the postseason. Offensively, Bonner is getting increasingly one-dimensional. This season, 72.6% of his shots have been three-pointers -- by far a career-high -- while his free throw attempts are down 36.4% from last season. Defensively, Bonner is of little use when he's attempting to guard a high quality player.

The Question: Can Matt Bonner perform well in the playoffs? If Bonner once again disappoints in the playoffs, his time in San Antonio could come to an end.

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Tiago Splitter A-

The Good: In nearly every area, Tiago Splitter has had a very productive sophomore season. His averages of 9.2 points and 5.1 rebounds in 19.8 minutes per game are extremely impressive. His PER (19.8) and field goal percentage (60.2%) have been great. Splitter has shown very good improvements in free throw percentage (up 23.8%), assists (up 69.2%) and blocks (up 87.5%). Offensively, he's one of the very best in the world at running pick-and-rolls. His screens are strong and his rolls to the hoop are perfectly executed. Splitter also shows talent on the low block. Not only can he score around the basket, he's also a very good inside-out passer. Defensively, Splitter defends well on the block, protects the rim and has enough quickness to survive out on the perimeter when it's needed.

The Bad: First of all, Splitter has missed time due to nagging injuries. He had durability issues prior to joining the NBA so these latest injuries are at least noteworthy. Splitter's turnovers are up 81.3% this season and he's getting to the line 25% less -- not exactly what you want to see out of developing bigman. Offensively, he tends to require a lot of involvement when he's on the court. While that's not necessarily a bad thing, it'd be better if Splitter could sometimes switch gears and succeed off the ball. Defensively, Splitter is sometimes slow to rotate and he can get bumped out of position if he's not expecting the contact.

The Question: Can Tiago Splitter carve out a bigger role? It's very difficult to argue against Splitter being one of the top five players on this team. He's just too skilled, too productive and has too high of a ceiling to ignore. But right now, it appears the only minutes he will receive are minutes behind Duncan. If he's going to impact the playoffs in a meaningful way, Splitter is going to have to find a way to earn more minutes.

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James Anderson D

The Good: James Anderson has been much more aggressive and confident since the trade deadline. His rebounding has also improved dramatically as the season has progressed. Defensively, Anderson doesn't hurt the team at all. In fact, he's one of the very best at staying in front of his man.

The Bad: He came into the league as a shooter but suddenly Anderson can't shoot the ball. He's hitting just 25% of his three-pointers this season and 37.1% of his shots overall. His lack of accuracy has basically reduced his role to an end of the bench player who can sometimes provide a burst of energy.

The Question: What happened to James Anderson's three-point shot? That thing was gorgeous in his rookie season before he broke his foot.

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Stephen Jackson Inc.

The Good: Billed as a low efficiency gunner, Stephen Jackson has returned to San Antonio and is playing a different brand of basketball than he played at any point in his career. On offense, he doesn't force the issue at all. Instead, he takes good shots, makes smart passes and is dedicated to running the offense. Defensively, he's tough, good in isolations and attentive to his help defense responsibilities. Overall, Jackson brings a level of swagger that was needed on this team and so far his fit has been virtually flawless.

The Bad: Since he's been away, Jackson's shooting percentages have been consistently low and his turnover rate has been consistently high. At some point, he's going to go through a shooting slump or pile up a lot of turnovers. I think.

The Question: Will Stephen Jackson snap? Through seven games, he has been willing to come off the bench and play a limited role. It's somewhat difficult to believe he'll be satisfied with this role for the rest of the season, especially since he was asking for a contract extension prior to being traded to the Spurs. At some point, you'd think Stephen Jackson will have a Stephen Jackson moment.

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Boris Diaw Inc.

The Good: Even though he's only played 89 minutes as a Spur, it's already obvious that Boris Diaw is a very good passer who can also make plays off the dribble -- a rare trait for a bigman. His screens are excellent and he knows how to find open spaces. On defense, he's a quality defender on the low block and his mobility allows him to be an asset against pick-and-rolls. In all areas, his high basketball IQ comes in handy.

The Bad: On offense, he rarely looks to score anymore. His outside shot has abandoned him -- he hasn't hit a three-pointer yet for the Spurs after hitting just 26.7% on threes with the Bobcats this season. Defensively, he's not a player who can protect the rim or rebound at even an average level for a bigman.

The Question: Is Boris Diaw ready to contribute? He'll get his chances over the next few weeks. His job will be to play so well that the coaches can't help but include him in the rotation. Since he was bad for the Bobcats this year, it's unknown whether he can instantly flip the switch and produce well enough for the coaching staff to make a change.

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Patty Mills Inc.

The Good: Patty Mills is a willing shooter with a fearlessness about him. He's not a playmaking point guard but he's a capable ballhandler who can utilize his speed to collapse a defense. On the other end of the court, he uses his quickness to pressure opposing dribblers.

The Bad: He's not blessed with much point guard ability; Mills mostly plays the position because he's short and fast. He has never been a high percentage shooter and he's susceptible to length on both ends. Defensively, his lack of strength can get him in trouble against bigger point guards.

The Question: Can Patty Mills stay ready? At some points -- it might not happen until the playoffs -- Mills will likely be called upon in an emergency. That will be his time to shine.

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jjktkk
04-03-2012, 04:35 PM
Thanks for the grades Tim. :tu

Obstructed_View
04-03-2012, 04:38 PM
Not much of a test tonight, but it would be nice to see some indications of what they have planned going into the rest of the season.

YODA
04-03-2012, 04:44 PM
I know gone now, but how about RJ?

Mel_13
04-03-2012, 04:46 PM
Thanks for the work you do here, LJ. This place has been an important part of my Spurs fan experience since the 2005 playoffs.





Tony Parker A


All statistics aside, this has been Tony's best season as a Spur. With an aging Duncan, an injured Manu, and several new/young players to integrate, Tony has become the undisputed leader of the team. Without his outstanding performance, I'm certain that the Spurs would be in that scrum between 6th and 10th in the conference standings.

Texas_Ranger
04-03-2012, 04:49 PM
Thanx, great read.... you could also grade Pop.

Splits
04-03-2012, 04:53 PM
Greg Popovich -- A

TimmehC
04-03-2012, 04:54 PM
You forgot one:

Richard Jefferson A+

The Good: He's gone.

The Bad: Who cares? He's Golden State's problem now.

The Question: See above

Kuestmaster
04-03-2012, 04:55 PM
Gread read as always timvp.
Seems like Manu is slowly recovering his best self, we will need him and the current Timmy and Tony to go deep in the playoffs

therealtruth
04-03-2012, 04:57 PM
Greg Popovich -- A

As good as a job he's done Pop's really got to figure out a way to get Splitter more minutes. Everyone agrees he needs to play more but Pop can't figure it out.

mudyez
04-03-2012, 05:36 PM
while its not really shocking news, I like the foursome of Neal, Green, Blair and Bonner:

3Pt-Specialists | streaky efficiant
--------------------------------
def. Liability | defensivly good with some flaws

Blair
Bonner
Neal
Green

$pursDynasty
04-03-2012, 05:46 PM
How does Blair get a C- and Splitter get an A- really? this board has a very pronounced Splitter bias. Do I want Splitter to succeed? Yes! Does Blair have defensive issues against quality bigs? Absolutely! But it is not like Splitter is locking them down like Bill Russell. Splitter has missed a lot of games, has played soft and I can't recall, though I haven't seen every game, where Splitter was the best Spur of the game. Blair despite his inadequacies has been the best Spur player in a couple of games recently. Does Splitter have higher upside? Definitely, BUT on pure production this year there is NO WAY Splitter has performed two letter grades higher and contribued more to the Spurs this year than Blair. Now if the grade is on a sliding scale, more is required from Blair being a starter as opposed to Splitter coming off the bench then maybe, just maybe.

Splits
04-03-2012, 05:49 PM
How does Blair get a C- and Splitter get an A- really? this board has a very pronounced Splitter bias. Do I want Splitter to succeed? Yes! Does Blair have defensive issues against quality bigs? Absolutely! But it is not like Splitter is locking them down like Bill Russell. Splitter has missed a lot of games, has played soft and I can't recall, though I haven't seen every game, where Splitter was the best Spur of the game. Blair despite his inadequacies has been the best Spur player in a couple of games recently. Does Splitter have higher upside? Definitely, BUT on pure production this year there is NO WAY Splitter has performed two letter grades higher and contribued more to the Spurs this year than Blair. Now if the grade is on a sliding scale, more is required from Blair being a starter as opposed to Splitter coming off the bench then maybe, just maybe.

Thou shalt not speak ill of the Golden God on SpursTalk.

GSH
04-03-2012, 05:56 PM
Excellent write-up. The only thing I would even blink it is Tim. Considering where he is in his career, and the expectations we had, it's tough for me to to see a little more there for him. But B+ ain't bad.

The grades are a great addition to ST. I had to miss the last game, and I really looked forward to reading them.

chazley
04-03-2012, 05:58 PM
How does Blair get a C- and Splitter get an A- really? this board has a very pronounced Splitter bias. Do I want Splitter to succeed? Yes! Does Blair have defensive issues against quality bigs? Absolutely! But it is not like Splitter is locking them down like Bill Russell. Splitter has missed a lot of games, has played soft and I can't recall, though I haven't seen every game, where Splitter was the best Spur of the game. Blair despite his inadequacies has been the best Spur player in a couple of games recently. Does Splitter have higher upside? Definitely, BUT on pure production this year there is NO WAY Splitter has performed two letter grades higher and contribued more to the Spurs this year than Blair. Now if the grade is on a sliding scale, more is required from Blair being a starter as opposed to Splitter coming off the bench then maybe, just maybe.

Spurs are outscored by 0.3/100 possessions when Blair is on the court, compared to the Spurs outscoring opponents by 10.6 points/100 possessions when's he's on the bench.

Spurs outscore opponents by 6 points/100 possessions more when Splitter is on the court compared to when he's off it.

Blair has been absolutely atrocious this year.

TheSkeptic
04-03-2012, 05:59 PM
Thanks Timvp. Great read as always.

Spurs Brazil
04-03-2012, 06:07 PM
Thanks timvp

iManu
04-03-2012, 06:09 PM
Richard Jefferson NEGATIVE F

The Good: He's gone.

The Bad: Not Applicable.

The Ugly:

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/slides/photos/001/008/574/72453494_display_image.jpg?1307851639

:wakeup

DesignatedT
04-03-2012, 06:22 PM
Duncan and Manu with the same grade? Tiago with a better grade than Duncan? :lol

Cry Havoc
04-03-2012, 07:13 PM
Greg Popovich -- A

The only reason he doesn't get an A+ is because he didn't play Tiago enough.

TMTTRIO
04-03-2012, 07:13 PM
. He's also relying on three-pointers more than ever, with 48% of his attempts coming from beyond the three-point arc.
Well with Manu's improvement in 3point shooting I don't mind him taking them. Besides he's not getting any calls driving the lane anymore and the less he has to drive keeps him from getting another injury.


For example, when Parker is on the court with Ginobili, while his assists go up his scoring goes down 2.7 points per 36 minutes and his field goal percentage drops to 41%.
So what do you think the solution is? Manu already is coming off the bench so that he has plenty of time to score. There going to have to be on the court together.

loveforthegame
04-03-2012, 07:36 PM
Thanks for the grades. It's always a pleasure to read them. A lot to be happy about and hopeful for going into the playoffs and future.

Cant_Be_Faded
04-03-2012, 10:03 PM
Holy crap,.did not realize Parkers minutes and shooting were where they are.

This means he most likely will be the spurs token playoff injury this year

100%duncan
04-03-2012, 10:36 PM
Great write-up once again. Thanks LJ

vander
04-03-2012, 11:00 PM
staying healthy is part of the game, should be part of the grades

Manufan909
04-03-2012, 11:06 PM
Great write-up LJ!!! Props as always bro.:toast Now I'll stall by reading the Cavs game thread and maybe watch some of the 1st game of the Cavs-Spurs Finals (I've watched all the other Finals 2 or 3 times except for that one). and maybe even play some San Andreas so I only refresh ST once before seeing your grades.:downspin:

ducks
04-03-2012, 11:10 PM
more players are hurt this season due to the schedule

ducks
04-03-2012, 11:12 PM
when parker is playing with manu he is trying to make manu get ready for the playoffs

lurker23
04-04-2012, 03:31 AM
Other than health, the biggest question seems to be this: can Diaw play well enough to supplant Blair in the starting lineup? As you said, it might be all or nothing for Blair- starter, or end of the big rotation. (I guess the other alternative might be starter who gets 10 mpg.)

It's doubtful that Pop will consistently play all 5 bigs through the postseason. Duncan will obviously get a lot of minutes, Splitter is too good to be left out of the rotation, and until (unless) Bonner seriously regresses in the playoffs, he's played too well this season to justify taking him out of the mix.

That leaves Blair and Diaw to fight for the 4th spot, with the starting lineup being the best spot for either of them. As much as he has improved defensively, starting Bonner is still a nonstarter against teams with strong offensive bigmen. The idea of starting Splitter next to TD was thrown out by Pop long ago. It will be worth watching to see if Pop tests out Diaw with Duncan a lot throughout the games, and what happens to the starting lineup if he decides to give Blair a night off.

As a final note, small ball will also play a role in this. The other night, Pop closed out a game with a lineup of Parker/Ginobili/Jackson/Leonard/Duncan, which very well could be the crunch time lineup in the playoffs. In that case, the 96 big man minutes could be distributed like this:

Duncan: 35
Splitter: 19 (is 6 minutes of overlap with Duncan too much to expect per game?)
Bonner: 19
Blair/Diaw: 15
Small ball: 8

TheSkeptic
04-04-2012, 04:05 AM
Other than health, the biggest question seems to be this: can Diaw play well enough to supplant Blair in the starting lineup? As you said, it might be all or nothing for Blair- starter, or end of the big rotation. (I guess the other alternative might be starter who gets 10 mpg.)

It's doubtful that Pop will consistently play all 5 bigs through the postseason. Duncan will obviously get a lot of minutes, Splitter is too good to be left out of the rotation, and until (unless) Bonner seriously regresses in the playoffs, he's played too well this season to justify taking him out of the mix.

That leaves Blair and Diaw to fight for the 4th spot, with the starting lineup being the best spot for either of them. As much as he has improved defensively, starting Bonner is still a nonstarter against teams with strong offensive bigmen. The idea of starting Splitter next to TD was thrown out by Pop long ago. It will be worth watching to see if Pop tests out Diaw with Duncan a lot throughout the games, and what happens to the starting lineup if he decides to give Blair a night off.

As a final note, small ball will also play a role in this. The other night, Pop closed out a game with a lineup of Parker/Ginobili/Jackson/Leonard/Duncan, which very well could be the crunch time lineup in the playoffs. In that case, the 96 big man minutes could be distributed like this:

Duncan: 35
Splitter: 19 (is 6 minutes of overlap with Duncan too much to expect per game?)
Bonner: 19
Blair/Diaw: 15
Small ball: 8

Great points.

While I do understand the logic behind the small ball crunch time lineup, I'd be lying if I said I was comfortable with it. Except against specific teams, I don't think Leonard or Jackson should be guarding the 4. Especially not in the playoffs (although Jax is fine on Dirk).

I like Bonner but he should be getting something within the range of 10 minutes unless he's hot.

Splitter should take about half of Bonner's excess minutes and play at least 25-30 minutes.

Diaw should take all of Blair's minutes and about half the small ball ones.

Maybe something like

Duncan: 36
Splitter: 25
Diaw: 19
Bonner: 10 (or less if the usual fall-off happens)

With the remaining minutes given to either small ball or split between Tiago and Boris.

That's the kind of distribution that I'd be willing to count on with the season on the line.

As for Blair, the playoffs are for people who can play defense, execute, and not check out when the going gets tough. He needs to be out of the rotation except for garbage time.

If the Spurs get knocked out early, the big rotation will be the reason why. That said, I think they've got a legit shot at taking it all if they can sort that out.

Since it's coming to the end without any significant moves, though, I'm getting nervous.

lurker23
04-04-2012, 04:56 AM
I like Bonner but he should be getting something within the range of 10 minutes unless he's hot.

Splitter should take about half of Bonner's excess minutes and play at least 25-30 minutes.

Diaw should take all of Blair's minutes and about half the small ball ones.


I don't think you'd find many to argue with you on this site. I guess I was trying to to balance desires with realism. For example, for both Duncan and Splitter to get 25+ mpg, they have to be on the court together a lot, and it's really hard to see Pop going with that drastic a change at this point.

elemento
04-04-2012, 06:15 AM
Honestly, Blair deserves more than a C-, maybe a B-.

And Splitter doesn't deserve an A-. A B+ at most.

pgardn
04-04-2012, 06:52 AM
Thanks for the work you do here, LJ. This place has been an important part of my Spurs fan experience since the 2005 playoffs.





All statistics aside, this has been Tony's best season as a Spur. With an aging Duncan, an injured Manu, and several new/young players to integrate, Tony has become the undisputed leader of the team. Without his outstanding performance, I'm certain that the Spurs would be in that scrum between 6th and 10th in the conference standings.

Yes indeed.

Parker is not only finishing and hitting the jumper, he sets up the entire offense with his now selective probing. He is making wonderful decisions on what to do with the ball. His mastery of feeling the offensive flow of the game is a huge step up. He now has an instinct to attact when the opponent is tired or lazy, and when the D is well set up and alert, he works the opponents D around screens moves the ball to the right spot and frankly helps wear them down. The maturity of his game must give Popovich a huge sense of satisfaction based on the way he was hounded in his early years.

TheSkeptic
04-04-2012, 07:00 AM
I don't think you'd find many to argue with you on this site. I guess I was trying to to balance desires with realism. For example, for both Duncan and Splitter to get 25+ mpg, they have to be on the court together a lot, and it's really hard to see Pop going with that drastic a change at this point.

I agree with you honestly.

It's just hard to accept because this is what the team's playoff success hinges on.

The Spurs won't be able to beat the better teams in the West if our big rotation stays as is and I'm not 100% sure that the setup you proposed is going to be enough because of Blair and Bonner both playing too much.

In terms of reality it does look about right though.

will_spurs
04-04-2012, 07:16 AM
Duncan and Manu with the same grade? Tiago with a better grade than Duncan? :lol

Still based on expectations. You sound like you joined ST yesterday.

Bruno
04-04-2012, 07:25 AM
Thanks a lot for the grades. :tu

Regarding Blair, the killing stat is +/- :
Spurs with Blair (1104 minutes) : -27
Spurs without Blair (1364 minutes) : +309

lurker23
04-04-2012, 07:33 AM
Thanks a lot for the grades. :tu

Regarding Blair, the killing stat is +/- :
Spurs with Blair (1104 minutes) : -27
Spurs without Blair (1364 minutes) : +309

So I guess that makes Blair the anti-Bonner when it comes to plus/minus?

Bruno
04-04-2012, 07:58 AM
So I guess that makes Blair the anti-Bonner when it comes to plus/minus?

Pretty much.

Spurs with Bonner (1037 minutes) : +269
Spurs without Bonner (1431 minutes) : +13

Blair and Bonner basically split the PF spot, it's kinda logical that if one is very good at +/-, the other sucks.

Amuseddaysleeper
04-04-2012, 08:48 AM
With only 15 games left or so, when will Blair be removed from the starting lineup? Is Pop waiting till the final week to figure out his playoff rotation?

TJastal
04-04-2012, 08:57 AM
Yes indeed.

Parker is not only finishing and hitting the jumper, he sets up the entire offense with his now selective probing. He is making wonderful decisions on what to do with the ball. His mastery of feeling the offensive flow of the game is a huge step up. He now has an instinct to attact when the opponent is tired or lazy, and when the D is well set up and alert, he works the opponents D around screens moves the ball to the right spot and frankly helps wear them down. The maturity of his game must give Popovich a huge sense of satisfaction based on the way he was hounded in his early years.

My respect for Tony Parker continues to grow day by day. He's leading this spurs' squad by example and directing a starting lineup that features two rookies and making it all look effortless. I love how his game has finally matured in so many ways. He's taken his game to a whole new level as far as leadership and decision making. As a more mature point guard he has also been improved at getting other guys involved in the offense which not only helps the team more but makes his own offense more efficient and potent.

To a lesser extent it appears Manu is going through some of the same changes (and has been quoted saying so), that he also has come to the realization that the playmaking aspect of his (and Tony's) respective games can be the most potent part of their games. Of course you need weapons around you in order to do this and Pop has taken care this year to put those in place.

I always said, you can pencil in an automatic spurs W if Parker and Ginobili log 15+ assists.

TJastal
04-04-2012, 09:04 AM
Pretty much.

Spurs with Bonner (1037 minutes) : +269
Spurs without Bonner (1431 minutes) : +13

Blair and Bonner basically split the PF spot, it's kinda logical that if one is very good at +/-, the other sucks.

Bruno I have a question that you might be qualified to answer. Can Diaw replicate Blair's scoring in and around the rim? The great hands, etc? We all have seen the passing expertise inherent of Boris. And supposedly Diaw can also shoot the basketball though we haven't seen that yet.

That's one of my concerns about Diaw starting, is that Blair works with Parker pretty well as far as being in the right place at the right time for Tony's dump offs and P&R outlets.

He seems to be comfortable being in the paint (for post moves, etc) and the consensus is that he would play better P&R defense and protect the rim better. So I am guessing he could replicate Blair's positives to some extent.

sinok
04-04-2012, 09:31 AM
Boris won't have trouble to understand Tony's play, and the same for the other way....

They've been playing with each other since they were teenagers...

Blake
04-04-2012, 09:38 AM
Not picking up James Anderson's option doesn't seem so bad any more

Fabbs
04-04-2012, 09:58 AM
Pretty much.

Spurs with Bonner (1037 minutes) : +269
Spurs without Bonner (1431 minutes) : +13

Blair and Bonner basically split the PF spot, it's kinda logical that if one is very good at +/-, the other sucks.
Could we see this in past playoff terms?

TJastal
04-04-2012, 09:59 AM
Boris won't have trouble to understand Tony's play, and the same for the other way....

They've been playing with each other since they were teenagers...

Didn't even think of that, good one. The chemistry should be good from the get-go from all their years of playing on the french team.

All the more reason for Pop to take the plunge and try it out. The chance of Diaw being an upgrade has to be very high. And the way I look at it, If Blair is bound to sulk and give up on wanting to contribute to the team anymore, his selfish play is going to bite the spurs in the butt most likely anyway. And is it really going to affect the spurs one way or another for him to sulk on the bench? I think not. Pop still will have 4 solid bigs + a number of small ball options now.

DesignatedT
04-04-2012, 10:25 AM
Still based on expectations. You sound like you joined ST yesterday.

Still disagree.

Mugen
04-04-2012, 10:27 AM
Still disagree.

Tiago with a higher grade than Bonner too...

U Mad T?

DesignatedT
04-04-2012, 10:51 AM
Tiago with a higher grade than Bonner too...

U Mad T?

Fuck Bonner......

$pursDynasty
04-04-2012, 11:16 AM
Honestly, Blair deserves more than a C-, maybe a B-.

And Splitter doesn't deserve an A-. A B+ at most.

This is a much more realistic grade all things considered. I long for the day that Splitters production equals his potential and the accolades he gets on this board. Bird, McHale and Parrish better be glad that Splitter wasn't on that Celtics roster or they wouldn't get any minutes. Or that Splitter didn't join the team the year after Timmy got to the Spurs or his spot as the greatest PF of all time would be in jeopardy. Because of Tiago's potential and his +/- numbers. I am just being sarcastic and am NOT a Tiago hater and everyone is entitled to their favorite player. I am a TP guy, but when he does badly I will make excuses but I won't blindly maintain he had the best player on the court. For all of Blair's defensive liabilities he HAS contributed to this teams success this year, offensively on the boards and more than anything else by being there on the floor, that is better than a C-. Tiago for all his potential, and his in game contributions, he has been injured, seemingly played some games soft. I don't think that gets you an A- this year either. :nope

Mugen
04-04-2012, 11:28 AM
Fuck Bonner......

:lol :toast

jag
04-04-2012, 12:36 PM
Thanks for the post, LJ. :tu





Tiago Splitter A-

The Question: Can Tiago Splitter carve out a bigger role? It's very difficult to argue against Splitter being one of the top five players on this team. He's just too skilled, too productive and has too high of a ceiling to ignore. But right now, it appears the only minutes he will receive are minutes behind Duncan. If he's going to impact the playoffs in a meaningful way, Splitter is going to have to find a way to earn more minutes.



I think Splitter has already "earned" more minutes. From mid-late January he showed what he was capable of when given a larger role in the offense. At this point I don't really think it's about "earning" anything. Pop knows what he's capable of.

It seems as though untimely injuries have reinforced Pop's belief that Tiago isn't durable enough to handle a larger role. That's more or less the best reason I've seen anyone come up with as to why Splitter isn't seeing more minutes. If Pop is saving Tiago for the playoffs then so be it. If Pop's postseason plan is to use Tiago as nothing more than 15mpg filler for Duncan's bench minutes, then I think he's lost his mind. Either way, Tiago's performance from now until the end of the season will more than likely make no difference in Pop's postseason plans. He probably already knows what Tiago's role will be.

The Spurs are winning games right now so his limited role isn't much of an issue. I can only hope Pop is saving him for the postseason and trying to prevent any unnecessary injures. And if that's the case, I can't help but feel Tiago's development has been stunted. He needs reps to work on his post-up game. He needs minutes to work on his rebound positioning, defensive rotations and offensive chemistry with certain lineups. He's simply not getting those things in his current role.

You'd rather have a healthy Tiago than no Tiago at all, but limiting his minutes to below 20 per game doesn't ensure anything. You end up taking a guy into the playoffs who isn't as comfortable or productive on either end of the floor as he has the potential to be. And that's unfortunate for a team that has spent the past decade looking for a quality center.

Blake
04-04-2012, 12:37 PM
.

Horse
04-04-2012, 12:38 PM
I could see Mills being what Claxton was for us in '03.

timvp
04-04-2012, 01:48 PM
The only thing I would even blink it is Tim. Considering where he is in his career, and the expectations we had, it's tough for me to to see a little more there for him. But B+ ain't bad.Yeah, TD was difficult. If I was grading just Feb. and March, he would have gotten an A or A+. But I had to factor in Dec/Jan.


So what do you think the solution is? Manu already is coming off the bench so that he has plenty of time to score. There going to have to be on the court together.TP just has to keep playing the same way no matter who is on the court. Manu doesn't really have any blame in the matter, tbh.

timvp
04-04-2012, 02:21 PM
Thanks a lot for the grades. :tu

Regarding Blair, the killing stat is +/- :
Spurs with Blair (1104 minutes) : -27
Spurs without Blair (1364 minutes) : +309Yeah, plus/minus stats don't always have much meaning ... but a starter having a negative number 50 games into the season tells you something is wrong with said player.


And Splitter doesn't deserve an A-. A B+ at most.The only players in the league that can match Splitter's production in points, rebounds, assists and blocks are Josh Smith, Al Jefferson and Tim Duncan. I don't think anyone was expecting Splitter to join that type of elite company heading into the season.


I think Splitter has already "earned" more minutes.I agree that he's earned more minutes, especially since his competition are limited players in Bonner and Blair.

It'd be great if he played so damn great that even Pop couldn't ignore him anymore. But then again, given Splitter's minutes, how much better could he really play? His per-minute production is already elite ... so not sure what else he could do.

And would it even matter?

:smchode:


You'd rather have a healthy Tiago than no Tiago at all, but limiting his minutes to below 20 per game doesn't ensure anything. You end up taking a guy into the playoffs who isn't as comfortable or productive on either end of the floor as he has the potential to be. And that's unfortunate for a team that has spent the past decade looking for a quality center.Amen.

As well as Pop has coached this season, not building up any chemistry between Splitter and Duncan is such a glaring mistake that it overshadows a lot of the good he's done.

It's an exaggerated comparison but the only thing I could compare it to is if Pop suddenly thought it'd be smart to only play TP and Manu separately in order to maximize their per-minute production. While, yeah, it would maximize their production, it's also unbelievably stupid since those two would need to play together in the postseason.

therealtruth
04-04-2012, 02:21 PM
Thanks for the post, LJ. :tu





I think Splitter has already "earned" more minutes. From mid-late January he showed what he was capable of when given a larger role in the offense. At this point I don't really think it's about "earning" anything. Pop knows what he's capable of.

It seems as though untimely injuries have reinforced Pop's belief that Tiago isn't durable enough to handle a larger role. That's more or less the best reason I've seen anyone come up with as to why Splitter isn't seeing more minutes. If Pop is saving Tiago for the playoffs then so be it. If Pop's postseason plan is to use Tiago as nothing more than 15mpg filler for Duncan's bench minutes, then I think he's lost his mind. Either way, Tiago's performance from now until the end of the season will more than likely make no difference in Pop's postseason plans. He probably already knows what Tiago's role will be.

The Spurs are winning games right now so his limited role isn't much of an issue. I can only hope Pop is saving him for the postseason and trying to prevent any unnecessary injures. And if that's the case, I can't help but feel Tiago's development has been stunted. He needs reps to work on his post-up game. He needs minutes to work on his rebound positioning, defensive rotations and offensive chemistry with certain lineups. He's simply not getting those things in his current role.

You'd rather have a healthy Tiago than no Tiago at all, but limiting his minutes to below 20 per game doesn't ensure anything. You end up taking a guy into the playoffs who isn't as comfortable or productive on either end of the floor as he has the potential to be. And that's unfortunate for a team that has spent the past decade looking for a quality center.

Hopefully we can get a team in the first round that has a strong frontcourt to the see if Pop has lost it.

Mugen
04-04-2012, 02:27 PM
As well as Pop has coached this season, not building up any chemistry between Splitter and Duncan is such a glaring mistake that it overshadows a lot of the good he's done.


Exactly.


Hopefully we can get a team in the first round that has a strong frontcourt to the see if Pop has lost it.

Not sure if this was supposed to be sarcasm. But the Memphis series last year already showed Pop (and PoPfan) that he fucked up major by not getting Tiago time. If he still hasn't learned from that series then he's already lost it when it comes to Tiago.

Obstructed_View
04-04-2012, 02:34 PM
I could see Mills being what Claxton was for us in '03.

So you're expecting an injury then?

EVAY
04-04-2012, 02:40 PM
Yeah, TD was difficult. If I was grading just Feb. and March, he would have gotten an A or A+. But I had to factor in Dec/Jan.

TP just has to keep playing the same way no matter who is on the court. Manu doesn't really have any blame in the matter, tbh.

I agree that Manu has no blame, but I disagree that the difference when they are both on the floor is a problem.

I think that telling TP to play the same no matter who is on the court is to ignore his job. It seems to me that it is precisely his job to get the best offense out of whoever is on the court at one time. When that includes Manu, Manu's job has ALWAYS been to create plays for himself or others. In that respect, he and TP both play similar point guard functions, so TP's point guard stats are going to go down. But the team is better off, so he is doing the right thing.

If Tony had the same stats when Manu was on the floor as when he is not, more than a few folks around here would be decrying his 'selfishness' by not giving the ball to Manu more.

N'est-ce pas?

timvp
04-04-2012, 03:04 PM
^My issue is Parker shooting 41% when Manu is on the court. I'd be fine with his scoring going down as long as his efficiency also doesn't go down.

Paranoid Pop
04-04-2012, 03:11 PM
^My issue is Parker shooting 41% when Manu is on the court. I'd be fine with his scoring going down as long as his efficiency also doesn't go down.

Doesn't Parker take more corner 3s with Manu on the floor? My eyeball test would say so, but probably only accounts partially for the difference.

jjktkk
04-04-2012, 03:13 PM
Exactly.



Not sure if this was supposed to be sarcasm. But the Memphis series last year already showed Pop (and PoPfan) that he fucked up major by not getting Tiago time. If he still hasn't learned from that series then he's already lost it when it comes to Tiago.

Pop did screw up in not having Tiago ready, but all of the ffrontline of the Spurs got pwned, as well as the guards. So your not a Pop fan? Who would you have as coach of the Spurs?

TheSkeptic
04-04-2012, 03:50 PM
Pop did screw up in not having Tiago ready, but all of the ffrontline of the Spurs got pwned, as well as the guards. So your not a Pop fan? Who would you have as coach of the Spurs?

Speaking for myself, I'm not a Pop hater. In fact, if he'd realize that he's mismanaging our bigs and make adjustments accordingly I wouldn't have any problems with him. That's saying a lot in terms of all the good things he's doing this season.

Like you said, he screwed up not having Tiago ready last time. Now that we've discovered that he's better than advertised, he's screwing up again by stunting his development.

The wings are fine. The guard situation is fine. It's the bigs that will be a problem in the playoffs.

Coaches I'd trade Pop for:

Thibs
-He's young(er)
-He maximizes the talent on his team
-His defensive system is beautiful
-He prepares his team

Other coaches I like:

Van Gundy
Paul Silas
Rick Adelman
Jerry Sloan
Dwayne Casey's also been very very good this year

I wouldn't necessarily trade Pop for the guys in the second list but I wouldn't be freaking out if they replaced him after he retired or something.

Like I said, sort out the bigs and the Spurs could be celebrating their fifth championship in June. Other than that, Pop is doing a lot of things right.

Mugen
04-04-2012, 03:54 PM
Pop did screw up in not having Tiago ready, but all of the ffrontline of the Spurs got pwned, as well as the guards. So your not a Pop fan? Who would you have as coach of the Spurs?

No one. Pop is the best coach in the league by far but that's saying more about how sad the state of coaching is in the league right now.

Like timvp said, I agree that Pop has done a wonderful coaching job this season with all the injuries and the juggling of rotations. But the fact that he has underused Tiago and the Tiago/Tim combo for the last two years is absolutely inexcusable and just downright stupid.

I'm a Pop fan but not to the point where im slurpin his every move like others on this board (hi TPark).

therealtruth
04-04-2012, 04:08 PM
No one. Pop is the best coach in the league by far but that's saying more about how sad the state of coaching is in the league right now.

Like timvp said, I agree that Pop has done a wonderful coaching job this season with all the injuries and the juggling of rotations. But the fact that he has underused Tiago and the Tiago/Tim combo for the last two years is absolutely inexcusable and just downright stupid.

I'm a Pop fan but not to the point where im slurpin his every move like others on this board (hi TPark).

Carslile and Thibs are rising up the ranks. Thibs was the fastest to 100 victories. Carslile did an excellent coaching job in the Finals. In '10 he was too stubborn to give Beaubois time even though he could have made a difference. In '11 he was able to adjust on the fly by moving Peja out of the rotation and putting Barea in the starting lineup. Without those moves I don't think the Mavs win.

jjktkk
04-04-2012, 04:11 PM
No one. Pop is the best coach in the league by far but that's saying more about how sad the state of coaching is in the league right now.

Like timvp said, I agree that Pop has done a wonderful coaching job this season with all the injuries and the juggling of rotations. But the fact that he has underused Tiago and the Tiago/Tim combo for the last two years is absolutely inexcusable and just downright stupid.

I'm a Pop fan but not to the point where im slurpin his every move like others on this board (hi TPark).

:tu

TheSkeptic
04-04-2012, 04:14 PM
Carslile and Thibs are rising up the ranks. Thibs was the fastest to 100 victories. Carslile did an excellent coaching job in the Finals. In '10 he was too stubborn to give Beaubois time even though he could have made a difference. In '11 he was able to adjust on the fly by moving Peja out of the rotation and putting Barea in the starting lineup. Without those moves I don't think the Mavs win.

Yeah. Carlisle.

I knew I was forgetting someone. The thing I like about Carlisle is that he learns from his mistakes. I think losing in '10 has helped him grow as a coach.

Whenever I see a Dallas game it seems like he's always quick to make adjustments and to me it looks like he really coaches his players during games.

That flexibility is a large part of the reason why I don't think Dallas will be an easy oust. Of course a repeat is out of the question.

Fabbs
04-04-2012, 06:51 PM
Pop did screw up in not having Tiago ready,
small progress Slurpy, but progress nonetheless. :toast

EVAY
04-04-2012, 07:23 PM
^My issue is Parker shooting 41% when Manu is on the court. I'd be fine with his scoring going down as long as his efficiency also doesn't go down.

But isn't some of that decrease in fg% a function of Tony going to the three point line to open up the middle for Ginobili to create for himself? And Tony is not that good from three.