Championship Odds

[timvp]

Prior to the season, I went on record as saying the Spurs had only a 3% chance to win a championship. After Manu's early season injury and observing the fact that RJ had lost about four steps during the lockout, I lowered San Antonio's chances to 1%.

Honestly, looking back on it, I think both of those numbers were too high. I was pessimistic but not pessimistic enough. No team that relied on RJ and didn't have anything resembling a fifth bigman was going to win a championship. I guess the homer in me couldn't drop the Spurs all the way down to 0%.

Now, after the midseason makeover, I believe there's reason for optimism. IMO, here are those general reasons in order:

1. The Big 3 appears capable of turning back the clock, at least in spurts.

2. RJ's non-competitiveness no longer eats 30 minutes per night.

3. Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green have blossomed.

4. An extreme competitor has been added in Stephen Jackson.

5. Boris Diaw gives the Spurs another quality bigman option.

6. Their peak appears to be better timed this season.

What are the Spurs' chances to win a fifth NBA championship this season? The first hurdle is obviously health. No matter how well the Spurs are playing now, it will all come crumbling down if one of the Big 3 gets injured. And since all three are more injury prone than ever, that's a legit concern.

In a glass half full scenario, I'll give the Spurs these odds:

Staying healthy for the next two and a half months: 50%
If healthy, advancing past the first round: 90%
If healthy, advancing past the second round: 60%
If healthy, advancing past the WCF: 55%
If healthy, winning the Finals: 50%

I think that is fair for an optimistic look at things. If healthy, this team really shouldn't lose in the first round. It appears as if they'll have HCA in the second round, so they should be favored. If the Spurs make it to the WCF, that means they are playing well ... and that's when their experience would hypothetically kick in. In the Finals, the Spurs would likely be an underdog but, again, if they make it that far, I'd be confident in their experiencing playing a large role.

Add it up and that gives the Spurs a 7.4% of winning a championship this season when viewing things in a glass half full manner. That's not a great percentage but considering I had them at 1% not that long ago, I'll certainly take it.


http://dailypicksandflicks.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/praying-dog10.jpg


Glass half empty odds:

Staying healthy for the next two and a half months: 33%
If healthy, advancing past the first round: 80%
If healthy, advancing past the second round: 55%
If healthy, advancing past the WCF: 45%
If healthy, winning the Finals: 40%

2.6% chance of a championship.

[jjktkk]

Obviously health will always be the key. Props to the Spurs brass for trading for Leonard and acquiring Jack, Diaw, and Mills, which have given this team a much needed boost.

[The_Worlds_finest]

On that note Hollinger has them winning it all, leading the league with 20% of his simulations.

[MmP]

I think you're still being a little homer though I do believe Spurs chances have heighten. Still have to see how the team is after the FR.


observing the fact that RJ had lost about four steps during the lockout,
Amazing but true

[Manu-20]

I think this team is good enough to win it all and is much better equiped this year to handle the physical play in the playoffs. It's probably by design that ginobili and duncan are more out on the perimeter shooting than taking it inside or in duncan case banging down low so they can keep their bodies fresh for the playoffs. Looking at stats you can tell this team is good enough to win it all

Points Per Game-3rd
Rebounds Per Game-10th
Assist Per Game-5th

The only category for concern may be thier D which they rank 17th overall but to me this team has shown they are capable of turning up the D in spurts when needed like in the 4th quater. ALso points in the paint is a plus for us as since the jackson trade as we have outscored our oppents 9 out of the last 10 games just having jackson alone made this team stronger but then adding diaw in my opinion is what made them legit championship contenders.

[TJastal]

If Bonner and Blair continue to eat big minutes I give the spurs about a 3% chance. If Splitter and Diaw instead are given those minutes the figure rises to about 25%.

[timvp]

On that note Hollinger has them winning it all, leading the league with 20% of his simulations.

Tbh, that was the reason why I made this thread. There's no doubt that 20% is way too high right now but somewhere between 3-7% isn't too unreasonable and a huge improvement.

[Spurtacus]

5% if Blair and Bonner get more minutes then Splitter and Diaw.

25% if Splitter and Diaw get more minutes then Blair and Bonner.

This is assuming the team is fully healthy fur the entire run. I'm just pulling numbers out of my ass.

[td4mvp21]

I can't see them getting past the second round if Bonner/Blair are going to get more minutes than Splitter/Diaw, especially if they run into the Lakers.

[cheguevara]

it all depends on matchups.

1/10 are my odds

[Muser]

I was the biggest pessimist on this site before and at the start of this season and the Spurs are forcing me to have hope. They better not fuck this up and flame out again.

[roycrikside]

Tbh, that was the reason why I made this thread. There's no doubt that 20% is way too high right now but somewhere between 3-7% isn't too unreasonable and a huge improvement.

His model doesn't factor in injuries. I think HCA would change the odds in our favor quite a bit, personally, against the likes of OKC and Mia. The Spurs play gutty on the road, at least in the last 18 games or so, but they play with more juice at home.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I just want us to be healthy

That's it. It's been too long since this team has shown us what it can do when healthy.

Before the big three era ends, I want to see these guys get tested at full strength. It would be great, as a fan, to watch any outcome in the playoffs as long as we get the privilege of watching them at full strength.

[Mel_13]

I just want us to be healthy

That's it. It's been too long since this team has shown us what it can do when healthy.

Before the big three era ends, I want to see these guys get tested at full strength. It would be great, as a fan, to watch any outcome in the playoffs as long as we get the privilege of watching them at full strength.

yes

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I'm tired of thinking what if every year. If we are healthy and lose to Memphis or swept by Phoenix I can neal with it very easily if we are fill strength, cuz we know we're an inferior team.

Just one postseason before Duncan retires (looking at you manu) I don't wanna think What If when we get eliminated

[ElNono]

We're better than when the season started, but rotations are going to define how far we go IMO... and by rotations, I mean big men rotations...

[gambit1990]

would you guys rather us face miami or chicago in the finals? i think i'd rather play miami... the bulls play great defense, have the best front court in the league, and their coach is way better than the heat's. rose outplays parker too, but he's the best pg in the game so he'd outplay any other one.

[TheSkeptic]

would you guys rather us face miami or chicago in the finals? i think i'd rather play miami... the bulls play great defense, have the best front court in the league, and their coach is way better than the heat's. rose outplays parker too, but he's the best pg in the game so he'd outplay any other one.

Tough choice. Spo seems to be getting better and better and the talent on their perimeter is undeniable. I'd be more comfortable with Miami if there was some guarantee that the Spurs could use their frontcourt to their advantage.

Chicago has a really good coach. They've beaten Miami without Rose. Their bench is strong and they're balanced. They don't seem to blow teams out though so with some good offensive execution perhaps it could be done.

...I think I'm going to start cheering for Boston or Orlando.

[Mugen]

As I've said before, an injury to Bonner or Blair keeping them out of the playoffs would improve this team's championship odds significantly.

[gambit1990]

Chicago has a really good coach. They've beaten Miami without Rose. Their bench is strong and they're balanced. They don't seem to blow teams out though so with some good offensive execution perhaps it could be done.


yeah, i can't believe they've managed to have the best record in the league to this point in the season with rose missing, what... like a dozen games? impressive.

[Mugen]

would you guys rather us face miami or chicago in the finals? i think i'd rather play miami... the bulls play great defense, have the best front court in the league, and their coach is way better than the heat's. rose outplays parker too, but he's the best pg in the game so he'd outplay any other one.

Assuming SA is lucky enough to get that far, I'd rather play Chicago in a heartbeat.

Too bad, they'll never get past the Heat in the ECF.

[TheSkeptic]

yeah, i can't believe they've managed to have the best record in the league to this point in the season with rose missing, what... like a dozen games? impressive.

Yeah. Deng and Hamilton have also missed games with injuries. The Bulls are legit imo.

[emanueldavidginobili]

Im being very optimistic but I think the Spurs have a solid chance of winning the Championship..I think of it this way, If the Mavericks won a Championship last year the Spurs are definitely good enough to get it done this year..these guys have to be ready to play, they will be determined, TP Manu and Timmy are HUNGRY for a ring.

[silverblk mystix]

As I've said before, an injury to Bonner or Blair keeping them out of the playoffs would improve this team's championship odds significantly.

Lol...

Agreed on the Bonner part only...but when I say this...the popsuckers/homers get their panties in a huge twist...

Better for you to bring it up...

[shorttotry]

would you guys rather us face miami or chicago in the finals? i think i'd rather play miami... the bulls play great defense, have the best front court in the league, and their coach is way better than the heat's. rose outplays parker too, but he's the best pg in the game so he'd outplay any other one.

Miami, no question. The television ratings would be insanely high, and the Spurs would gain even more hatred by defeating the Heat. :hat

[polandprzem]

How did you come up with those numbers?


You made some calculations or you just pick some numbers by your hunch ?

[gambit1990]

Assuming SA is lucky enough to get that far, I'd rather play Chicago in a heartbeat.

Too bad, they'll never get past the Heat in the ECF.

i have to agree with the latter part of your statement. why would you prefer to play chicago though? i would just see it harder for ginobili and parker to score in the paint.

[Mugen]

i have to agree with the latter part of your statement. why would you prefer to play chicago though? i would just see it harder for ginobili and parker to score in the paint.

I just don't think they have a legit 2nd option behind Rose. Rose would undoubtedly beast on us but i figure Pop would just eventually let him get his throughout a 7 game series while making sure nobody else gets hot.

Plus it would be their first time in the Finals and wouldn't have the same hunger that Miami does.

The Heat have two legit #1 options, a solid #2 in Bosh, and a great defense. I just don't see them choking away two championships in a row, tbh.

[maverick1948]

As I've said before, an injury to Bonner or Blair keeping them out of the playoffs would improve this team's championship odds significantly.


Lol...

Agreed on the Bonner part only...but when I say this...the popsuckers/homers get their panties in a huge twist...

Better for you to bring it up...

WOW still wishing an injury on one of our own players. Good Lord. Bonner... Blair.... Who the hell got is to this point? Sure as hell wasnt Diaw. SJax didnt do it. RJ wasnt helping much. Ever thought a lot of our problems on D was Bonner/Blair and the rest of the team having to take care of RJ's crappy D? Damn I want the Spurs to win it all but I dont see Diaw making that much of an impact with the Spurs as yet. That is like 1/2 of you saying "look what Patty Mills did. 20 points and good D." I seen street that had more discipline than the pick up game against Cleveland. One or two games and some are ready to declare the new guys guaranteeing us a championship. If that were true dont you think Pop would be starting them? Bonner gets a double double against Boston and most claim it was meaningless because it was Bonner, but Timmy gets a double double and he is the greatest. When Bonner gets one I think he played his ass off, when Timmy does, I think that is Timmy being Timmy.

Stop wishing bad things on the Spurs. We need all our players.

[TJastal]

WOW still wishing an injury on one of our own players. Good Lord. Bonner... Blair.... Who the hell got is to this point? Sure as hell wasnt Diaw. SJax didnt do it. RJ wasnt helping much. Ever thought a lot of our problems on D was Bonner/Blair and the rest of the team having to take care of RJ's crappy D? Damn I want the Spurs to win it all but I dont see Diaw making that much of an impact with the Spurs as yet. That is like 1/2 of you saying "look what Patty Mills did. 20 points and good D." I seen street that had more discipline than the pick up game against Cleveland. One or two games and some are ready to declare the new guys guaranteeing us a championship. If that were true dont you think Pop would be starting them? Bonner gets a double double against Boston and most claim it was meaningless because it was Bonner, but Timmy gets a double double and he is the greatest. When Bonner gets one I think he played his ass off, when Timmy does, I think that is Timmy being Timmy.

Stop wishing bad things on the Spurs. We need all our players.

10 boards against the league's worst rebounding team is like beating a retard in a game of scrabble.

[The_Worlds_finest]

Tbh, that was the reason why I made this thread. There's no doubt that 20% is way too high right now but somewhere between 3-7% isn't too unreasonable and a huge improvement.

For me I think his stats are starting to reflect post RJ Spurs. I have never recorded the chart prior to playoffs, so nothing to bench mark against. You have something through the years?

[TampaDude]

Just got back from July 4th.

The Spurs are NBA Champions on July 4th.

So, the chances are 100%.

[TD 21]

7.4% is too low. Only four teams have a legit shot at the championship and they're one of them. I'm willing to leave open the slight possibility of a random fifth team pulling it off, but you can't tell me the other three legit contenders have a significantly better shot than the Spurs. And by significantly, I mean 30% for each of the three and 2.6% for a random fifth.

I don't have any formula, this is pure subjectivity . . .

1. Heat: 30%
2. Bulls: 25%
3. Spurs: 22.5%
4. Thunder: 20%
5. Other: 2.5%

[TJastal]

Just got back from July 4th.

The Spurs are NBA Champions on July 4th.

So, the chances are 100%.

Book it?

[TJastal]

7.4% is too low. Only four teams have a legit shot at the championship and they're one of them. I'm willing to leave open the slight possibility of a random fifth team pulling it off, but you can't tell me the other three legit contenders have a significantly better shot than the Spurs. And by significantly, I mean 30% for each of the three and 2.6% for a random fifth.

I don't have any formula, this is pure subjectivity . . .

1. Heat: 30%
2. Bulls: 25%
3. Spurs: 22.5%
4. Thunder: 20%
5. Other: 2.5%

I'll go with:

1. Heat 25%
2. Spurs 20%
3. Bulls 18%
3. Thunder 18%
4. Mavs 8%
5. Lakers 7%
6. Rest 4%

[Paranoid Pop]

7.4% is too low. Only four teams have a legit shot at the championship and they're one of them. I'm willing to leave open the slight possibility of a random fifth team pulling it off, but you can't tell me the other three legit contenders have a significantly better shot than the Spurs. And by significantly, I mean 30% for each of the three and 2.6% for a random fifth.

I don't have any formula, this is pure subjectivity . . .

1. Heat: 30%
2. Bulls: 25%
3. Spurs: 22.5%
4. Thunder: 20%
5. Other: 2.5%

So you have Memphis and LAL at about 1% each :wow??

[TheSkeptic]

So you have Memphis and LAL at about 1% each :wow??

Memphis?

[TampaDude]

Book it?

Yup. FACT.

[TJastal]

Forgot about Memphis. Give them darkhorse status (because of return of Gay). Same with the celtics/pacers in the east. Darkhorse = unknown/unpredictable.

[TheSkeptic]

Darkhorse teams don't win championships. Also, Gay's a ballhog.

Out of all those teams you picked I'd only give the Celtics about half a percentage point of a chance because they've been there before. Teams like the Pacers and Thunder get a zero percent chance in my mind. Too young and inexperienced.

Yeah the Pacers don't stand a chance but I'd give the Thunder more than 0%.

[TheSkeptic]

Zero percent chance for the Thunder this season, but a 50% chance they win one or more championship(s) in the Durant era. They're still at least a couple, if not a few, years away from title contending. As it stands they're a good regular season team just as the young ones go.

That position is reasonable enough.

[TD 21]

So you have Memphis and LAL at about 1% each :wow??

Pretty much. I'd go slightly higher for the Lakers than the Grizzlies, though.

My thoughts on why the Lakers are not a legit contender . . .


I wrote them off before the season began, as far as being a legit contender. There's only four teams capable of winning the championship and they're not one of them. It's not just the obvious personnel issues, it's the lack of chemistry. That team clearly doesn't like each other and clearly doesn't respect their coach. I can't think of a championship team in recent memory that you could say that about. And then there's the simple fact that they can't win easily. It's always a grind. That's another characteristic that you don't find in championship teams.

This team reminds me a lot of the '08 Spurs. They're too old to sustain anything and don't have enough depth or versatility. That team still had three of the best players in the league too, but it was obvious well in advance of the playoffs that their aura and mystique were gone and that they were not going to win the championship. And they didn't lack chemistry or have a problem with their coach. They also defended much better than this Lakers team. That's the thing, the Lakers offense isn't just anemic, but their defense, while fairly good, isn't nearly good enough to compensate for that.

[Cry Havoc]

Zero percent chance for the Thunder this season

:wow

Yeah, I could see how you say that, considering they just took the Heat to the wire and have beaten them badly this season already.

Seriously, wtf? The Thunder are healthy and playing extremely good basketball. I could easily see them making the Finals.

[Keepin' it real]

Spurs chances = 0% if they destroy team chemistry by benching Blair like they did last season. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. (and it ain't broke)

[rascal]

Tbh, that was the reason why I made this thread. There's no doubt that 20% is way too high right now but somewhere between 3-7% isn't too unreasonable and a huge improvement.

3-7% is too low.

There are only 6 teams in the league capable of winning it all.

Miami which should have the highest odds, then Chicago because they play in the weak east one of those two should advance to the finals then the Spurs, OK City, Dallas and The Lakers are the only ones coming out of the west. Split 100% between those 6 teams, the Spurs should have higher odds then less than 10%.

[timvp]

I knew TD 21 would give the Spurs better odds because he thought they should be the favorites in the West even before the RJ trade ... but rascal? Dude has changed lately :wow

[therealtruth]

I think it will come down to whether the Spurs's crunch time defense is enough.

[ViceCity84]

Blair still starting
Bonner still getting significant minutes
1% chance

[TheSkeptic]

Balir still starting
Bonner still getting significant minutes
1% chance

:lmao

How generous.

[angelbelow]

7.4% is too low. Only four teams have a legit shot at the championship and they're one of them. I'm willing to leave open the slight possibility of a random fifth team pulling it off, but you can't tell me the other three legit contenders have a significantly better shot than the Spurs. And by significantly, I mean 30% for each of the three and 2.6% for a random fifth.

I don't have any formula, this is pure subjectivity . . .

1. Heat: 30%
2. Bulls: 25%
3. Spurs: 22.5%
4. Thunder: 20%
5. Other: 2.5%

+1

As far as our championship hope before the season started, 3%/1% was definitely too high. Anyone claiming otherwise is out of their mind.

With Manu's early season injury, my initially feelings were so bad that I wanted to tank for the draft. Finally, I settled on just making the playoffs and racking in some additional arena revenue and merchandise sales.

From initially having such low expectation to now believing that we can compete has made this season a treat to watch. I especially enjoyed Parker's play, the roster makeover, the emergence of Splitter, the return of Jackson, and the development of Kawhi Leonard.

I would still like to see some roster changes to maximize the talent and the b-ball IQ we have on this team.

[timvp]

Tbh, logically you have to have Miami, Chicago and probably OKC with double the Spurs odds because they are at least half as likely to suffer an injury that ruins their playoff run. The Spurs have suffered a killer injury four postseason in a row and this year the Big 3 is teetering on over the hill. Suck but that's reality with an injury prone team.

[Jimcs50]

Betting odds.

On April 1st, I bet $100 to win $400 for Spurs to win the West.

I wagered $100 to win $1000 for them to win the NBA championship.

I think those are fantastic odds.

If Spurs play in playoffs like they have been playing the last month, I think they should be favorites to win West and at worst a 2-1 dog against Chicago or Miami.

[Drz]

Staying healthy for the next two and a half months: 50%
If healthy, advancing past the first round: 90%
If healthy, advancing past the second round: 60%
If healthy, advancing past the WCF: 55%
If healthy, winning the Finals: 50%

Add it up and that gives the Spurs a 7.4% of winning a championship...
Did you mean to give the Spurs a 0% chance to win the championship if they don't stay healthy?

[100%duncan]

7.4% is too low. Only four teams have a legit shot at the championship and they're one of them. I'm willing to leave open the slight possibility of a random fifth team pulling it off, but you can't tell me the other three legit contenders have a significantly better shot than the Spurs. And by significantly, I mean 30% for each of the three and 2.6% for a random fifth.

I don't have any formula, this is pure subjectivity . . .

1. Heat: 30%
2. Bulls: 25%
3. Spurs: 22.5%
4. Thunder: 20%
5. Other: 2.5%

You don't put Chicago at number 2. They won't get past the heat,tbh,imo.

[TJastal]

You don't put Chicago at number 2. They won't get past the heat,tbh,imo.

Heat look very beatable lately actually.

[timvp]

Did you mean to give the Spurs a 0% chance to win the championship if they don't stay healthy?

By "healthy" I mean TD, Manu and TP staying healthy. So yeah, if one of those three go down, I'd say the chances drop to zero ... or a number so small that it's not worth quantifying.

[ducks]

17.9% spurs win it all

[roycrikside]

Tbh, logically you have to have Miami, Chicago and probably OKC with double the Spurs odds because they are at least half as likely to suffer an injury that ruins their playoff run. The Spurs have suffered a killer injury four postseason in a row and this year the Big 3 is teetering on over the hill. Suck but that's reality with an injury prone team.

All true. But, the Spurs will play an easier schedule in the playoffs as far as fatigue goes. They'll have at most a couple of back-to-backs, and even then it'll be in the same gym so jetlag won't be an issue. No back-to-backs after round 2 either.

[GINNNNNNNNNNNNOBILI]

Honestly, the only teams that really scare me are Chicago and Miami, because they are great defensive teams. In my eyes they are the ONLY teams I'd think the Spurs would be dogs against in a series.

Against the Thunder I'd give the Spurs a 60/40 chance if they had home court. And probably a 50/50 chance if OKC had home court.

I'm actually more worried about Memphis and LA Lakers in the playoffs for obvious reasons. Hopefully Diaw takes on a bigger role come playoff time.

[TD 21]

I knew TD 21 would give the Spurs better odds because he thought they should be the favorites in the West even before the RJ trade ... but rascal? Dude has changed lately :wow

No. I specifically said the Thunder should be the favorites, because they need less to go right for them, but that the Spurs were the better team. Suffice it to say, given what I've seen from some of the mainstays, plus the new guys, my belief has only been further solidified.

And 100%duncan, I put anyone, anywhere I want them. I'm the judge and the jury around here.

[timvp]

No. I specifically said the Thunder should be the favorites, because they need less to go right for them, but that the Spurs were the better team.You thought a healthy RJ team should be favorites in the West. That hurts your credibility, tbh. No RJ Spurs team was going to do anything in the playoffs, healthy or not :lol

[Splits]

By "healthy" I mean TD, Manu and TP staying healthy. So yeah, if one of those three go down, I'd say the chances drop to zero ... or a number so small that it's not worth quantifying.

I would say this is true if TD or TP go down, since we can't replace them. Not having Manu would make it more difficult but not impossible, because his role is much easier to fill with our depth on the wings.

[Splits]

Betting odds.

On April 1st, I bet $100 to win $400 for Spurs to win the West.

I wagered $100 to win $1000 for them to win the NBA championship.

I think those are fantastic odds.

If Spurs play in playoffs like they have been playing the last month, I think they should be favorites to win West and at worst a 2-1 dog against Chicago or Miami.

Spurs are now 7-1 to win it all and 3-1 to win the WCF.

On March 25th I put $300 to win $4500 on the chip and $150 to win $900 on the WCF. The odds have plummeted since then, as we haven't lost since March 17.

[therealtruth]

You thought a healthy RJ team should be favorites in the West. That hurts your credibility, tbh. No RJ Spurs team was going to do anything in the playoffs, healthy or not :lol

RJ helped win game 2 in Dallas in '10. I think he also had a pretty good game 2 against the Suns.

[TD 21]

You thought a healthy RJ team should be favorites in the West. That hurts your credibility, tbh. No RJ Spurs team was going to do anything in the playoffs, healthy or not :lol

Wow, you really don't possess an ounce of reading comprehension.

Jefferson didn't change the equation against the Thunder. The Spurs still would have had more scoring depth and the Thunder still wouldn't have been able to exploit the Spurs biggest weakness. And when Jefferson inevitably went fetal, they could have flat out benched him, by going with Leonard and Green at the three.

Saying that the Spurs were the better team all along doesn't hurt my credibility at all. There was plenty of reasons to support that. And let's face it, if the Spurs record vs the Thunder in recent seasons was reversed, no one would be pretending as if the Spurs had a chance. I'm not going that far at all with the Thunder, but they are the inferior team.

[smeagol]

3-7% is too low.

There are only 6 teams in the league capable of winning it all.

Miami which should have the highest odds, then Chicago because they play in the weak east one of those two should advance to the finals then the Spurs, OK City, Dallas and The Lakers are the only ones coming out of the west. Split 100% between those 6 teams, the Spurs should have higher odds then less than 10%.

Who's taken over rascal's computer?

[timvp]

You thought a healthy RJ team should be favorites in the West. That hurts your credibility, tbh. No RJ Spurs team was going to do anything in the playoffs, healthy or not :lol

Wow, you really don't possess an ounce of reading comprehension.

Jefferson didn't change the equation against the Thunder. The Spurs still would have had more scoring depth and the Thunder still wouldn't have been able to exploit the Spurs biggest weakness. And when Jefferson inevitably went fetal, they could have flat out benched him, by going with Leonard and Green at the three.

Saying that the Spurs were the better team all along doesn't hurt my credibility at all. There was plenty of reasons to support that. And let's face it, if the Spurs record vs the Thunder in recent seasons was reversed, no one would be pretending as if the Spurs had a chance. I'm not going that far at all with the Thunder, but they are the inferior team.

Hint: When you claim someone lacks reading comprehension, you shouldn't then reinforce the point they just made.

[Fabbs]

Prior to the season, I went on record as saying the Spurs.....
You also said if Splitter and Duncan were not integrated to playing together the Spurs had no chance.

Do you still feel that way?

[SequSpur]

Spurs jackup too many threes...bonner is still owning POP. Zero chance. First round and out...

Spurs are the new suns...

[rascal]

I knew TD 21 would give the Spurs better odds because he thought they should be the favorites in the West even before the RJ trade ... but rascal? Dude has changed lately :wow

The spurs have a shot if they get lucky. Good matchups and injuries to other teams stars and staying healthy. There is no clear top team in the West this year(don't believe in OK City- chokers) and if they get to the finals they will win. I have always said the Spurs will never lose an NBA finals.

Miami is the clear favorite if they stay healthy. If Miami wins that means the Spurs don't even get to the finals.

[rascal]

Spurs are now 7-1 to win it all and 3-1 to win the WCF.

On March 25th I put $300 to win $4500 on the chip and $150 to win $900 on the WCF. The odds have plummeted since then, as we haven't lost since March 17.

It is starting to be not such a good bet anymore.

[rascal]

All true. But, the Spurs will play an easier schedule in the playoffs as far as fatigue goes. They'll have at most a couple of back-to-backs, and even then it'll be in the same gym so jetlag won't be an issue. No back-to-backs after round 2 either.

There are no back to backs in the playoffs.

[Mel_13]

There are no back to backs in the playoffs.

Playoff Back to Backs: Possible in second round

http://www.nba.com/2011/news/11/27/schedule/index.html

[Fabbs]

^ what the latest on playoff b2bs? That article you posted was in Dec 2011.

[Mel_13]

^ what the latest on playoff b2bs? That article you posted was in Dec 2011.

Why don't you go find out:

google.com

[bluebellmaniac]

Playoff Back to Backs: Possible in second round

http://www.nba.com/2011/news/11/27/schedule/index.html

If the article mentioned playoff b2b games, it would appear it has since been updated with the playoff b2b removed.

?????

[Mel_13]

If the article mentioned playoff b2b games, it would appear it has since been updated with the playoff b2b removed.

?????

I believe you are correct:

http://www.nba.com/news/key-dates/index.html

[Fabbs]

If the article mentioned playoff b2b games, it would appear it has since been updated with the playoff b2b removed.

?????
thank you.
One intelligent courteous post >>>>>>>> an infinite amount of trollPopper posts. :lol :toast

[TD 21]

Hint: When you claim someone lacks reading comprehension, you shouldn't then reinforce the point they just made.

You didn't make any point, though. All you did was make something up.

[objective]

My take is that the Spurs odds to win it all will all hinge greatly on if they can overcome the "POP MOMENT" that looks like it will come early in the playoffs.

The POP MOMENT is first set up by refusing to play those players who give them the best chance to win (or at least couldn't hurt to try) while insisting on playing guys who can't help at all.

The POP MOMENT is when the Spurs backs are against the wall and it finally dawns on Pop that he HAS to do something different, and finally changes his ways to play the proper players.

Previous POP MOMENTs have finally putting in George Hill in as a rookie and finally allowing Splitter to play, or to a smaller degree, putting in Steve Kerr in 03.

One big problem with the POP MOMENT is that it often comes to late to save the season. Even after finally coming to reason, the team is too far in the hole and not talented enough to overcome the position they were put in (like Splitter and Hill). It worked thankfully with the 03 team because the rest of the team was talented enough to use that POP MOMENT as a stepping stone to victory.

One other problem is, "What if the moment never comes?". What if Pop refuses? If Stephen Jackson is inactive for the playoffs while Terry Porter trips all over himself? If Van Exel still gets brutalizing minutes? If guys with heart like Hairston are never allowed to play? What if the moment is ruined because Pop refused to get Splitter in basketball shape or teamed with Duncan?

---

To me, the most important moment will come when Blair becomes the glaring, obvious weak link even to Pop as the starter. It might happen when the Spurs are tied 2-2, or down 3-1. If Blair is still starting in the playoffs, it will happen. Then the POP MOMENT and the right choice will be to start Diaw. The wrong choice would be to start Bonner.

This year, I think the Spurs have enough talent if healthy to claw back a victory in a series after the POP MOMENT of making Diaw the starter over Blair. And from there, after that defining series in round 1 or round 2, is when the Spurs become a legit title contending powerhouse and their odds go up, way up.

And that's how I see the odds working.

Without that moment of clarity and POP MOMENT of making Diaw the starter and bulk minutes player over Blair, their chances are slim, very slim. 1-3%. AFTER the moment, the odds shoot up, way up if they escape the series, say 25-40% in my estimation.

Smaller moments will involve keeping Bonner's minutes to no more than 4th big, the choice of who starts on the wings and who plays back-up point. But the Blair issue is by far the biggest, on par with refusing to play Splitter last year because it "wouldn't be fair to the team".

[Nathan89]

Waiting for the new odds with the new starter(Diaw).:wakeup

50% imhho (In my humble honest opinion)

[TheSkeptic]

Waiting for the new odds with the new starter(Diaw).:wakeup

50% imhho (In my humble honest opinion)

:lol

I have to say I'm liking their chances better now that Blair's not in the line-up.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

I'm massively oversimplifying and using stats incorrectly, but I give us a 25% chance as we are one of the 4 teams I think can win the title (along with OKC, Bulls, Heat). I'm also being very optimistic. ;)

[pgardn]

Miami +135
Chicago +300
OKC +350
San Antonio +900
LA +950
Clips +1050
Mavs +2000
NY +3000

[Splits]

Miami +135
Chicago +300
OKC +350
San Antonio +900
LA +950
Clips +1050
Mavs +2000
NY +3000

Which site is still giving 9-1??? I'll take those odds, rest of Vegas is at 7-1

[timvp]

Bump.

With the playoffs about to start, I'll go ahead and update these numbers. Since more time has past, I'd lower San Antonio's chances of suffering a debilitating injury from 50% to 40%. The Spurs also got a good bracket draw so I'll raise their chances of winning in the first round to 95% and in the second round to 70%.

Staying healthy for the next two months: 60%
If healthy, advancing past the first round: 95%
If healthy, advancing past the second round: 70%
If healthy, advancing past the WCF: 55%
If healthy, winning the Finals: 50%

So, that's basically an 11% chance to win the championship. Long odds but considering how unlikely a championship appeared to be at the beginning of the season, I'll definitely take it.

[Slutter McGee]

I would say we have about a 13% or 14% chance. I like timvp's simplistic formula based on observations. I generally agree with it, but I think you also have to factor in other teams possible health issues. I think the possibility of opposing team's injuries negating ours brings it up a few percentage points.

Sincerely,

Slutter McGee

[honestfool84]

Bump.

With the playoffs about to start, I'll go ahead and update these numbers. Since more time has past, I'd lower San Antonio's chances of suffering a debilitating injury from 50% to 40%. The Spurs also got a good bracket draw so I'll raise their chances of winning in the first round to 95% and in the second round to 70%.

Staying healthy for the next two months: 60%
If healthy, advancing past the first round: 95%
If healthy, advancing past the second round: 70%
If healthy, advancing past the WCF: 55%
If healthy, winning the Finals: 50%

So, that's basically an 11% chance to win the championship. Long odds but considering how unlikely a championship appeared to be at the beginning of the season, I'll definitely take it.

how do you get 11%? i am confused how you are calculating these numbers.


not that i am doubting them, just curious.

[tmtcsc]

Tbh, that was the reason why I made this thread. There's no doubt that 20% is way too high right now but somewhere between 3-7% isn't too unreasonable and a huge improvement.

If we are at 3 - 7 % and have the best record in the league, how in the world does 97-93% get divied up between 15 other teams? What did I miss ?

[timvp]

how do you get 11%? i am confused how you are calculating these numbers.

You just have to multiply all those percentages together to figure out the overall percentage.

.6 X .95 X .7 X .55 X . 5 = .109725 = ~11%





For the record, here are AccuScore's percentages of the Spurs winning each series. AccuScore has been pretty accurate in previous years. They even gave the Mavs a good shot at winning last year before the playoffs began.

Spurs chances to win series
93% vs. Jazz
87% vs. Nuggets
86% vs. Clippers
86% vs. Knicks
84% vs. Mavs
80% vs. Grizzlies
78% vs. Lakers
71% vs. Pacers
53% vs. Heat
51% vs. Bulls
49% vs. Thunder

The only team AccuScore sees the Spurs as an underdog against is the Thunder. Those numbers aren't too out of line with what I think. AccuScore gives the Spurs even better odds against the Grizzlies and thinks the Spurs would be favorites in the Finals.

Not factoring in injuries, AccuScore gives the Spurs an 18.6% chance of winning the championship even if San Antonio travels the hardest possible road.

(To compare, if you don't factor in injuries, I have the Spurs at about 18.3% ... which is pretty darn close.)

[Whisky Dog]

18.3%... Looks like Hollinger had it closer to right with that 20% a few weeks ago.

IMO the only teams who could have a better % chance of winning the title are the Bulls and Heat, but probably should still be a little lower since they theoretically will have to play each other to get there.

The Thunder have injury concerns and have been lackluster the last few weeks which lowers their chances below the Spurs IMO. We really need the Mavs to pull the shocker then we take care of business every round.

[spursfaninla]

Did you account for the other teams being at a higher than normal injury risk, especially considering that the best players from the Bulls and Heat have been injured recently?

Also, I think 40% of injury is way too high. Although Manu has proven to be injury-prone over the years, and has fallen in or around the playoffs consistently in recent years, some of those injuries are flukes (nose.)

Also, I think Manu has adjusted his style of play by taking so many 3pt shots; that has to reduce the chances for injury.

Lastly, because of our depth, we really can continue to manage minutes relatively in the playoffs, and that has to reduce the chance of injury.

Even so, manu missed lots of time this year already, so I understand your high-risk calculation.

I see your assigning such a high chance of injury as "emotional self-protection" hedging.

[Seventyniner]

According to the Accuscore numbers in ESPN's NBA Playoff Predictor, I calculated these probabilities for the Spurs (in parentheses are the implied money lines):

Win 1st round: 93% (-1329)
Win 2nd round: 76.5% (-325)
Win 2nd round given a 1st round win: 82.3%
Win WCF: 46.7% (+114)
Win WCF given 2nd round win: 61.1%
Win title: 28.4% (+252)
Win title given WCF win: 60.8%

I took into account nearly every matchup. The only ones I left out were Spurs vs. ATL/ORL/PHI in the Finals. Those 3 teams only have a 3.6% combined chance of making the Finals anyway, so I assumed the Spurs woud have a 95% chance to beat any of them.

There might be some good bets here...

Remember, kids, these numbers are provided for entertainment purposes only. I do not endorse illegal gambling. :downspin:

[z0sa]

Timvp giving Spurs good odds now? This might just be the cake talking... but let's celebrate.

[roycrikside]

Prior to the season, I went on record as saying the Spurs had only a 3% chance to win a championship. After Manu's early season injury and observing the fact that RJ had lost about four steps during the lockout, I lowered San Antonio's chances to 1%.

Honestly, looking back on it, I think both of those numbers were too high. I was pessimistic but not pessimistic enough. No team that relied on RJ and didn't have anything resembling a fifth bigman was going to win a championship. I guess the homer in me couldn't drop the Spurs all the way down to 0%.

Now, after the midseason makeover, I believe there's reason for optimism. IMO, here are those general reasons in order:

1. The Big 3 appears capable of turning back the clock, at least in spurts.

2. RJ's non-competitiveness no longer eats 30 minutes per night.

3. Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green have blossomed.

4. An extreme competitor has been added in Stephen Jackson.

5. Boris Diaw gives the Spurs another quality bigman option.

6. Their peak appears to be better timed this season.

What are the Spurs' chances to win a fifth NBA championship this season? The first hurdle is obviously health. No matter how well the Spurs are playing now, it will all come crumbling down if one of the Big 3 gets injured. And since all three are more injury prone than ever, that's a legit concern.

In a glass half full scenario, I'll give the Spurs these odds:

Staying healthy for the next two and a half months: 50%
If healthy, advancing past the first round: 90%
If healthy, advancing past the second round: 60%
If healthy, advancing past the WCF: 55%
If healthy, winning the Finals: 50%

I think that is fair for an optimistic look at things. If healthy, this team really shouldn't lose in the first round. It appears as if they'll have HCA in the second round, so they should be favored. If the Spurs make it to the WCF, that means they are playing well ... and that's when their experience would hypothetically kick in. In the Finals, the Spurs would likely be an underdog but, again, if they make it that far, I'd be confident in their experiencing playing a large role.

Add it up and that gives the Spurs a 7.4% of winning a championship this season when viewing things in a glass half full manner. That's not a great percentage but considering I had them at 1% not that long ago, I'll certainly take it.



BUMP.

I think it's time revise the percentages, now that one round is out of the way, everyone's still healthy, and the only team that could've possibly had home court on us, the Bulls are essentially a non-factor because of their injuries.

Staying healthy for the next three series (factoring in the rest we got after the sweep to heal lingering bumps and bruises): 60%

Advancing past the second round (factoring the health/wear-and-tear/quality of our opponents): 80%

If healthy, advancing past the WCF (pretty much the Thunder, you have to think): 60%

If healthy, winning the Finals (Heat, yes?): 55%.


My conservative estimate is that we've pretty much doubled our odds, to 15.8%, pretty much a 1 in 6.3 chance.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

We need to stop being so cocky, the basketball gods don't like spurs bombast

[Nathan89]

BUMP.

I think it's time revise the percentages, now that one round is out of the way, everyone's still healthy, and the only team that could've possibly had home court on us, the Bulls are essentially a non-factor because of their injuries.

Staying healthy for the next three series (factoring in the rest we got after the sweep to heal lingering bumps and bruises): 60%

Advancing past the second round (factoring the health/wear-and-tear/quality of our opponents): 80%

If healthy, advancing past the WCF (pretty much the Thunder, you have to think): 60%

If healthy, winning the Finals (Heat, yes?): 55%.


My conservative estimate is that we've pretty much doubled our odds, to 15.8%, pretty much a 1 in 6.3 chance.

80%, 60%, and 55% is not very conservative imo.

[DMC]

Staying healthy for the next three series (factoring in the rest we got after the sweep to heal lingering bumps and bruises): 40%

Advancing past the second round (factoring the health/wear-and-tear/quality of our opponents): 50%

If healthy, advancing past the WCF (pretty much the Thunder, you have to think): 40%

If healthy, winning the Finals (Heat, yes?): 40%.

If you can actually give odds for that kind of thing, that is.

My gut feeling after watching this team all season is that they get to the WCF at most.

[Splits]

Vegas Odds for the chip:

MIA: +120
SAS: +225
OKC: +400

[Brazil]

Im waiting for a thread saying spurs going to sweep OKC and Miami tbh

Quite surprised to not have seen yet a thread like spurs can sweep everybody

[pgardn]

Which site is still giving 9-1??? I'll take those odds, rest of Vegas is at 7-1

It was an online site from Europe but I cannot remember which one. The nice value was probably due to the fact that you have to start an account which you are charged for.

Anyways its long gone as are the 7-1...

[jestersmash]

Didn't see if this was mentioned yet, but here's another neat little website for you guys to check out -

http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/series/team/san-antonio-spurs

Be sure to click on "Get the Complete Series Details" for additional information.

There are articles (to the left) describing the method and commenting on the historical accuracy of the predictions as well.

[Seventyniner]

Accuscore update (prior to game 6 of LAC/MEM and game 7 of LAL/DEN):

Spurs chance to win 2nd round: 76.92% (-333)
Spurs chance to win WCF: 41.32% (+142)
Spurs chance to win title: 24.90% (+301)

Again, implied money lines are in parentheses. The Spurs WCF/title chances have gone down because the Mavs (spectacularly) failed to knock off the Spurs' toughest competition.

Also, the chances OKC wins the title are 28.28%, for an implied money line of +254. That +400 line tells me that hardly anyone is betting on the Thunder. Conversely, Accurscore pegs Miami's title chances around 32.1%, for an implied money line of +212. There's definitely heavy money on the Heat.

SA beats Miami 53/47, and OKC beats Miami 52/48, but Miami's title chances are better because they'd only have to beat at most one of SA and OKC.

[timvp]

Bump.

With the playoffs about to start, I'll go ahead and update these numbers. Since more time has past, I'd lower San Antonio's chances of suffering a debilitating injury from 50% to 40%. The Spurs also got a good bracket draw so I'll raise their chances of winning in the first round to 95% and in the second round to 70%.

Staying healthy for the next two months: 60%
If healthy, advancing past the first round: 95%
If healthy, advancing past the second round: 70%
If healthy, advancing past the WCF: 55%
If healthy, winning the Finals: 50%

So, that's basically an 11% chance to win the championship. Long odds but considering how unlikely a championship appeared to be at the beginning of the season, I'll definitely take it.

Update:

The Spurs survived one round so their chances of staying healthy improved by 1/4th. I like this draw against the Clippers and give the Spurs a very good chance of advancing. However, the Thunder looked damn good against the Mavs so I'm going to lower their WCF odds slightly.

Staying healthy for the next two months: 70%
If healthy, advancing past the second round: 90%
If healthy, advancing past the WCF: 52%
If healthy, winning the Finals: 50%

That bumps the Spurs odds of winning the championship up to ~16.4%. Not bad.

Hopefully the Spurs can make quick work of the Clippers and stay healthy. Oh, and hopefully the Thunder vs. Lakers is a bloodbath in which both teams expose flaws of the other team.

[therealtruth]

hopefully the Thunder vs. Lakers is a bloodbath in which both teams expose flaws of the other team.

I see the Thunder treating the Lakers like the Mavs.

[TwoHandJam]

BUMP.

I'm interested to see where we stand timvp. Forget about looking after the kids, this is important.

:hat

[Jimcs50]

Betting odds.

On April 1st, I bet $100 to win $400 for Spurs to win the West.

I wagered $100 to win $1000 for them to win the NBA championship.

I think those are fantastic odds.

If Spurs play in playoffs like they have been playing the last month, I think they should be favorites to win West and at worst a 2-1 dog against Chicago or Miami.


I am feeling pretty pretty pretty good about this wager....my bookie is very nervous.

:)

[TwoHandJam]

bump.

I'm interested to see where we stand timvp. Forget about looking after the kids, this is important.

:hat

bump!

[timvp]

Here are some postmortem odds:

Heading into the WCF, I would have given the Spurs a 55% to win that series and probably a 60% chance to win the Finals. Add in the 10% chance of suffering a debilitating injury and the Spurs' chances were 29.7%.

After going up 2-0, the Spurs' chances probably bumped up to about 80%. Historically it's higher but with as well the Thunder rallied in those first two games, it was pretty obvious that they had a chance of rallying. So up 2-0, the Spurs' chances of winning a championship were a season-high 43.2%. :depressed

Heading into Game 5, the chances really started plummeting. The chances of winning the WCF was probably down to about 53% and the chances of winning the Finals was probably the same number (due to the shortened rotation and the increased leaning on the Big 3). As Game 5 tipped off, the odds were at about 25.3%.

On one hand, the Spurs never really had a better than a coinflip shot of winning the championship.

But what makes it so tough to stomach is that their chances were like 1% not that long ago. Hell, when I started this thread, they were less than 10%. To get all the way up to >40% to see it plummet to zero hurts.

Damn :depressed

[therealtruth]

But what makes it so tough to stomach is that their chances were like 1% not that long ago. Hell, when I started this thread, they were less than 10%. To get all the way up to >40% to see it plummet to zero hurts.


What's frustrating for me is the Spurs stopped believing in the pass and playing as a team. It's ironic that was the perception of OKC. OKC eventually learned from watching us play in games 1 and 2 and played Spurs ball while the Spurs started playing individual ball and relying more on the individual strengths of the big 3. You can claim the role players shrunk but they should know in the playoffs they need to be able to counter that by taking a few dribbles and hitting a jumpshot. That maintains the offensive rhythm and keeps the defense honest.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

I still think the $100@15-1, and [email protected] bets I made late in March were the best bets I've ever placed.

If Ibaka/Perkins/Collison hadn't hit 22/25, I'm pretty sure we would've won in 5, but it wasn't to be. :depressed

[therealtruth]

I still think the $100@15-1, and [email protected] bets I made late in March were the best bets I've ever placed.

If Ibaka/Perkins/Collison hadn't hit 22/25, I'm pretty sure we would've won in 5, but it wasn't to be. :depressed

You can't base your defense on guys who are good shooters not hitting wide open jumpshots.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

You can't base your defense on guys who are good shooters not hitting wide open jumpshots.

Huh? Our D is set up to do exactly that - stop layups and 3s, give up long jumpers. Perkins is not a good shooter, nor Ibaka (although he improved a lot this year).

22/25 is 88%. How many times will 3 average outside shooting bigs shoot 88% on 25 shots? Not very fucking often! And then Durant scored 16 in the 4th.

Game 4 was a massive outlier, but unfortunately it kick-started OKC's belief in each other, and since they found that they've been a buzzsaw at both ends.