Plus/Minus Over Time - Apr. 7, 2012

[timvp]

In the following graph, the x-axis represents time (in games), while the y-axis is plus/minus per 48 minutes. I found that it takes about 200 minutes played for the noise to be limited enough to make plus/minus useful, so each player's plus/minus number only got plotted after they reached that 200-minute minimum.

(I removed the minutes played in that Blazers game Pop forfeited.)

http://oi40.tinypic.com/2j5kxma.jpg




Observations:




-Kawhi Leonard! Not only is he producing lately, that production is helping the Spurs. For a 20-year-old rookie, that's very impressive. From game No. 24 until now, it's been an almost straight line of improvement.

-Unfortunately, DeJuan Blair hasn't shown the same improvement. He remains the glaring weakness of this team plus/minus-wise.

-The King of the Plus/Minus just keeps heading north. Matt Bonner has proven beyond all doubt that he's an asset in the regular season.

-If you look at the top right, you can see that Bonner may have a challenger in Stephen Jackson. Jack's return to S.A. has gone about as smooth as possible and his plus/minus agrees.

-Manu Ginobili ain't quite Matt Bonner but he's close. Before Pop returns him to the starting lineup, he should probably take into consideration how much of a difference-maker Ginobili is off the bench.

-Tiago Splitter, the other key player off the bench, looks to have flattened out as of late but there's no shame in hanging around +9.

-For a guy who gets such inconsistent minutes, James Anderson's positive impact has been pretty consistent over the year.

-Tony Parker's line doesn't look impressive at face value but it's important to consider that the rest of the starting lineup does him no favors. When he gets to play with the bench, his plus/minus goes through the roof.

-Danny Green's plus/minus took a nosedive but it seems to have settled around the team average. That said, if he goes any further south, there's a good case to be made that he doesn't deserve a spot in the starting lineup.

-Since around game No. 24, Tim Duncan has remained close to the team average. The truth is that this Spurs team is so deep that they don't rely on Duncan being the difference-maker any longer. His job nowadays is to keep the squad steady and help fight off any slumps.

-Gary Neal is another player who has hovered around the team average for more than half the season. However, that's actually a bit worrisome for him because he's playing with the bench unit that has otherwise been plus/minus beasts. You'd think the rest of the bench would have pulled his number higher by now.

-Overall, plus/minus says to remove Blair from the starting lineup and keep a close eye on Green and Neal. It also says Leonard is a vastly improved player since the middle of the season. And that Pop would be insane to remove Bonner from the rotation anytime soon.

[TheSkeptic]

Thanks :toast

I know I was pretty mad about the George Hill trade but I've really been impressed with Leonard this year. He just keeps getting better and better. He's a good one.

[ThePop]

lol @ Jefferson

[freetiago]

wasnt it last year that pop had nightmares after a laker beatdown and inserted mcdyess into the starting lineup
with 3 games in less than 2 weeks lets hope the same happens
knowing pop hell just make blair first big off the bench and start bonner
tiago will be the cleanup crew player

i like what green brings but his inconsistency should worry anyone
but hes a solid player the spurs should keep for years, this is basically his first season
gary is an asset at the 2 spot, he should never be forced to play backup pg at all costs

[therealtruth]

wasnt it last year that pop had nightmares after a laker beatdown and inserted mcdyess into the starting lineup
with 3 games in less than 2 weeks lets hope the same happens
knowing pop hell just make blair first big off the bench and start bonner
tiago will be the cleanup crew player

i like what green brings but his inconsistency should worry anyone
but hes a solid player the spurs should keep for years, this is basically his first season
gary is an asset at the 2 spot, he should never be forced to play backup pg at all costs

It will be interesting to see those Lakers games. Hopefully the Lakers are completely healthy.

[Rito3d30]

lol @ GTFO

[jesterbobman]

Interesting.

Looking at that, there's definitely co-variance in the bench play, which fits with observation. Our bench is dominating other teams benches(Top 4 ATM is Bonner/Jackson/Ginobili/Splitter, and Diaw will be high once he reaches 200 minutes).

This may explain part of Greens fall, going from Bench(dominant as a unit) to starters isn't going to help raw plus/minus.

Another point is that that probably understates the quality of Leonard ATM. He's weighed down in an average by the first 24 games. Would a moving last 200/400 minutes indicate his(and all players) current quality more?

[TheSkeptic]

And before I forget Timvp, have you noticed any established patterns as far as the lines and predicting future performance goes?

Like for example, I'm seeing on this chart that Parker's line has quite a few places where he's plateaued slightly and then done a bit better for a larger trend of helping the team more as the season's progressed (after taking a bit of a dip).

Leonard's a rookie so I wouldn't try to extrapolate with him, but does that work at all?

I don't know too much about stats so...

[Mr. Body]

Interesting.

Looking at that, there's definitely co-variance in the bench play, which fits with observation. Our bench is dominating other teams benches(Top 4 ATM is Bonner/Jackson/Ginobili/Splitter, and Diaw will be high once he reaches 200 minutes).

This may explain part of Greens fall, going from Bench(dominant as a unit) to starters isn't going to help raw plus/minus.

Another point is that that probably understates the quality of Leonard ATM. He's weighed down in an average by the first 24 games. Would a moving last 200/400 minutes indicate his(and all players) current quality more?

These are great points against what is a valuable and very interesting exercise. I wonder if there was a way to control against starting vs. bench units.

[Borosai]

MattVP

[GSH]

Edit: NM. I've been short on time and cherry-picking/skipping ahead in threads too much lately.

Oh, and another cool thing would be to see the same thing for the bench and the starters (aggregate +/- , not sure that per 48 would work too well).

[dylankerouac]

Lmao the gtfo for Jefferson. Classic.

[Nathan89]

Would be nice to have numbers at the end of the line like the "GTFO". Would need to be in the key as well.

[hooperflash]

RJ :lmao

[roycrikside]

-Overall, plus/minus says to remove Blair from the starting lineup and keep a close eye on Green and Neal. It also says Leonard is a vastly improved player since the middle of the season. And that Pop would be insane to remove Bonner from the rotation anytime soon.

L.J., I know there are folks in the Spurs organization who surely use analytics and probably keep stats we've never heard of, but to your knowledge does Pop ever bother looking at adjusted plus/minus, 5-man lineups or any of that stuff or does all the stuff people tell him just fall on deaf ears?

I just want to know if there's a method to the madness.

[timvp]

Looking at that, there's definitely co-variance in the bench play, which fits with observation.True. The whole bench unit gets a boost since the Spurs' bench is the strength of the team right now. Although Neal hasn't seen a similar rise.

Now that I think about it, it makes sense though. The bench is doing good but it really excels with Parker running the bench unit. That's why Parker is ahead of the starters and why Neal trails behind.

I haven't looked but I'm guessing the most productive units consist of Parker with bench players (in addition to the bench players playing with each other, of course).


This may explain part of Greens fall, going from Bench(dominant as a unit) to starters isn't going to help raw plus/minus.Yeah, Green began starting at game No. 26 ... which led to his freefall.


Another point is that that probably understates the quality of Leonard ATM. He's weighed down in an average by the first 24 games. Would a moving last 200/400 minutes indicate his(and all players) current quality more?Yeah, I've actually been working on ways to format that. It'd be interesting because by now early season play doesn't have much bearing on the future.


And before I forget Timvp, have you noticed any established patterns as far as the lines and predicting future performance goes?Raw plus/minus (which this is) doesn't have much predictive value. It can tell you what has happened ... but even then you need to put it in context (for example, Anderson's plus/minus is high largely due to him playing with mostly with an amazingly strong bench unit).

There are other forms of plus/minus that adjust for teammates and opposition that do have some predictive value.

Raw plus/minus can help you guess what the future holds but it would be unwise to put much stock in it.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Neal plus minus numbers are reflecting what we've seen

he looks to be going through a George Hill esque regression in production

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Also,.crofl at the RJ gtfo

[timvp]

I wonder if there was a way to control against starting vs. bench units.That's definitely possible using the totals ... but it'd be difficult to control the units and plot it over time.


L.J., I know there are folks in the Spurs organization who surely use analytics and probably keep stats we've never heard of, but to your knowledge does Pop ever bother looking at adjusted plus/minus, 5-man lineups or any of that stuff or does all the stuff people tell him just fall on deaf ears?

I just want to know if there's a method to the madness.The Spurs do have a few stats people they employ. They are given a voice in coaches meetings. I don't think Pop actively seeks out the numbers but I know he's given updates.

For the record, PJ Carlesimo was extremely high on plus/minus. He even valued in-game plus/minus, which most statisticians say is crazy due to the microscopic sample size. With Carlesimo gone, I imagine that Pop is less likely to adjust due to plus/minus numbers.

[DieMrBond]

I don't mean to be negative, because the chart and work is really freaking awesome, but with my eyes I have some difficulty figuring out which line is which - Leonard / Green in particular. Maybe their initials or something at the start of each line might help the colour blind like me :S Again, sorry to be negative because the work is above and beyond.

Back on topic: Like someone else said, it will be very interesting to see where Diaw and Patty lands on the charts...

Is it easy to find out how the Spurs compare to other teams in +/-, or is it kind of a pointless endeavour?

[Slomo]

Wow! Thanks timvp for this. I always wondered what the GTFO graph function in Excel was used for.
:tu

[TE]

Timvp, have you ever thought about working with the Spurs as a statistician or something similar?


The team, more importantly, Pop, could use you for orchestrating appropriate playing time for players.

[jiggy_55]

Timvp, have you ever thought about working with the Spurs as a statistician or something similar?


The team, more importantly, Pop, could use you for orchestrating appropriate playing time for players.

And then he could convince Pop that Splitter should replace Bonner's minutes, and that Diaw should replace Blair's minutes! :downspin:

[jiggy_55]

Hey timvp, the fact that Blair continues to start and play minutes really baffles me, so I have a serious question:

What are the possible reasons Pop continues to play and start Blair ahead of the likes of Splitter, Diaw, and even Bonner?

Personally, when I come to think of it I find it hard to think of any valid reasons to justify this so I'm just trying to get into Pop's head and understand his thinking. Yes, Blair has a good understanding with Tim at times, and he can score inside and make some great passes, but overall his IQ is below average and he makes too many mistakes on the court to continue to play him regular minutes. Splitter is a better defender, is great at making screens, and is high percentage inside scorer. Bonner is a better shooter and defender while spreading the floor (yes I said that). Lastly, in his short time with the team Diaw has shown he has a very high basketball IQ, can make plays for his teammates and find them open, and can score if needed. Blair really isn't better than any of these guys in most things to consistently warrant a starting job and 20+ mins.

[Bender]

I don't mean to be negative, because the chart and work is really freaking awesome, but with my eyes I have some difficulty figuring out which line is which - Leonard / Green in particular. Maybe their initials or something at the start of each line might help the colour blind like me
same with me... I can't tell which is which on these graphs. Some of the lines look the same to me, but I'm color blind too

[spursfaninla]

Hey timvp, the fact that Blair continues to start and play minutes really baffles me, so I have a serious question:

What are the possible reasons Pop continues to play and start Blair ahead of the likes of Splitter, Diaw, and even Bonner?

Personally, when I come to think of it I find it hard to think of any valid reasons to justify this so I'm just trying to get into Pop's head and understand his thinking. Yes, Blair has a good understanding with Tim at times, and he can score inside and make some great passes, but overall his IQ is below average and he makes too many mistakes on the court to continue to play him regular minutes. Splitter is a better defender, is great at making screens, and is high percentage inside scorer. Bonner is a better shooter and defender while spreading the floor (yes I said that). Lastly, in his short time with the team Diaw has shown he has a very high basketball IQ, can make plays for his teammates and find them open, and can score if needed. Blair really isn't better than any of these guys in most things to consistently warrant a starting job and 20+ mins.

Splitter might not be able to avoid injury playing more minutes. If you want to have at least one on splitter and Duncan on the floor at all times and splitter can only play minutes in the 20s the math is not that hard