Five Things I'm Worried About

[timvp]

We Spurs fans love to worry. It's what we do. Here's what's worrying me at the moment:

1. Tony Parker's Assertiveness
Tony Parker's struggles in the last two games have all of us a bit skittish. The Spurs had a test against too big, physical teams and Parker responded with two of his worst games of the season.

Personally, what has me worried regarding Parker is his assertiveness. I'm not convinced that he realizes he needs to be the alpha dog on this year's team. While Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili can still be great players, they're simply not capable of carrying the team for long stretches of time as effectively as Parker can. Mostly due to age and health reasons, this needs to be a Parker-centric team for the Spurs to make a strong playoff push. Obviously, Duncan and Ginobili will be there in tight situations but over the course of the 48 minutes, Parker has to have the mindset that it's his job to orchestrate the action.

Basically, Parker just needs to be more selfish, be more reluctant to defer and stay in attack mode. Maybe at some point in the playoffs, Duncan and Ginobili will be ready to become the go-to players ... but that's not the case right now. It has to be Parker.

Speaking of Parker, I disagree with the commonly held opinion that Parker struggled simply due to facing big, physical teams. Against the Grizzlies, he appeared unconfident, out of rhythm and just couldn't complete plays he has completed all season long. And, reluctantly, I think we need to start giving credit to Mike Conley. Outside Avery Bradley of the Celtics, Conley has evolved into probably the best defensive point guard in the league. Add in Memphis' overall fundamentally sound defense and I don't think that is a team the Spurs can expect Parker to dominate against on a regular basis.

But the Lakers are a different story. After Wednesday's game, "Parker always sucks against the Lakers; their just too long" was written a lot. Looking back through the years, it's just not true.

Last year, Duncan and Ginobili were horrible against the Lakers. Parker, on the other hand, averaged 19.3 points on 51% shooting and was the best starter in each game. In 2010, Parker averaged 23 on 53% shooting. In 2009, it was 21.3 points on 55% shooting. In 2008, Parker was the best of the Big 3 against the Lakers in the playoffs and averaged 21 points on 57% shooting against L.A. in the regular season.

The Lakers are a horrible matchup for the Spurs but it's not because of Parker. Recent history tells us Parker's struggles on Wednesday were more of a fluke than a continuation of a trend.

2. Pop Forfeiting the Wrong Games
We know that Pop is going to forfeit at least a couple more games down the stretch due to the compressed schedule. In the next 13 days, the Spurs play nine games. Obviously, there's no way Pop should play all the players in all those games. It's simply too dangerous for such an injury-prone team.

But Pop has to be smart about this. If he forfeits the wrong games, he could hurt the team's confidence ... not to mention their ability to land the highest possible seed for the playoffs.

Tomorrow against the Suns, there's no much reason to rest anyone. The Spurs are still recovering from that Lakers travesty so they need to go out and take care of the Suns with all hands on deck.

After the Suns game, the Spurs face a back-to-back-to-back. Going into the season, I thought it would be wise to forfeit the middle game. But not anymore. That middle game is against the Lakers and there's no way the Spurs should just roll over and die. Going on the road and winning that game would officially get this team back on track. That's not an opportunity Pop can flush down the toilet.

Instead, Pop needs to forfeit the first game of that back-to-back-to-back, which happens to be against RJ and the Warriors. With the Warriors desperate to tank, the Spurs have a good shot of winning that game anyways. (For those not following Tankfest 2012, Golden State basically needs to lose the rest of their games or else they will lose their first round pick to the Jazz.)

After the Lakers game, the Spurs travel to Sacramento. The Kings have been horrible lately so Pop could probably get away with limiting the Big 3's minutes in that game.

The Spurs then return to San Antonio their final homestand of the season. First, it's a must-try game against the Lakers. After that, it's two games against tanking teams (the Cavs and Blazers) that should be easy wins.

The final dangerous game on the schedule is the second to last game of the season against the Suns. Unless the Spurs have wrapped up their seed in the playoffs, they should probably attack that one and go for a win ... especially since it'd be the final chance at a tune-up. (Yes, I realized what happened last year in the same situation … don't remind me.) If the Suns are still in the playoff hunt, that could be a really good test and one the Pop should take advantage of.

The season ends against the tanking Warriors. Again, the Spurs should win that game no matter who plays.

Overall, while the schedule looks daunting, Pop can navigate it while giving the Spurs a legit chance to win each game. The Spurs can forfeit two contests (the Warriors games), limit minutes in three contests (Kings, Cavs, Blazers) and play the full roster in the other four games (Lakers twice, Suns twice). When you think about it that way, trying hard in four games over the next 13 days shouldn't be too taxing.

3. Manu Ginobili's Minutes

Amazingly, Manu Ginobili hasn't played more than 30 minutes in a contest this year since the first game of the season. While I'm in favor of Pop being careful with Ginobili down the stretch in an effort to ensure his health for the postseason, I also think Pop should pick a game or two to push his minutes up to around 35 or 36. Relying on the playoffs to be the stage where Ginobili begins to build his endurance sounds like a dangerous proposition to me.

That said, I'm still in favor of Ginobili coming off the bench. The formula that has worked the best includes the Argentine star quarterbacking the reserves. Since Ginobili can't be counted on for big minutes right now, the way to make certain he'll be able to play all the minutes with the bench unit is to (drumroll, please) bring him off the bench. For now, it's really that simple.

Perhaps at some point in the playoffs Ginobili will be needed to start. But even if that happens, we've seen him be able to make that move seamlessly ... so preemptively making the move now isn't necessary.

4. The Starting Lineup
As long as we're on the subject of the starting lineup, I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop. Pop is likely to alter the current starting five but I honestly don't know which way he's leaning.

Next to Duncan, does Pop stick with DeJuan Blair? It looks like Boris Diaw could be on the verge of taking over that spot ... and it could happen as soon as tomorrow against the Suns.

Kawhi Leonard has hit the rookie wall, Danny Green is extremely streaky and Stephen Jackson has the skillset of a starter. Those three things combined would point to Pop making a move. Plus, going into the playoffs with basically two rookies at the wing positions would be ... unconventional, I guess is the right word. Pop is going to make a move here at some point, right? Yeah, I think so.

5. Matt Bonner's Shooting
We all know that Matt Bonner isn't exactly known for his intestinal fortitude come the postseason. However, does Bonner actually start choking once the playoffs are in sight? I mean, I know he's not a player who thrives under pressure but is he really so scared of the playoffs that he starts quivering at the end of the regular season? I believe it was angelbelow who pointed out that Bonner has a history of shooting poorly in the month of April.

Three-Point Shooting in Aprils
April 2012: 33.3% (10-for-30)
April 2011: 33.3% (8-for-24)
April 2010: 36.8% (14-for-38)
April 2009: 37.9% (11-for-29)
April 2008: 25.0% (3-for-12)
April 2007: 25.0% (4-for-16)

As a Spur, Bonner is 50-for-149 (33.6%) on three-pointers in April during the regular season. In the playoffs, he's 20-for-62 (32.3%) on three-pointers. The rest of the time, Bonner shoots 42.7% (443-for-1038).

Is Matt Bonner a choker or simply the world's most unluckiest basketball player? The evidence gets more and more difficult to ignore. Since the Spurs rely (and will continue to rely) on Bonner's shooting, I'm beyond worried of how Bonner is going to shoot in the playoffs. I'm petrified.

[suitedkings]

I believe it was angelbelow who pointed out that Bonner has a history of shooting poorly in the month of April.



and May

[Sean Cagney]

Bonner starting to fade in April again, GO FIGURE! It's like clockwork! TO HIS FANS hwo support him still and argue his presence! He does this every year towards the playoffs! He is what he is, that last one is not a worry to me it's a given every f in year yet he still plays late.

[Beanzamillion21]

Great insight, I agree with the Manu section of this post. If I were Pop, I would play him the rest of the way, (baring the final game of course) I liked how Pop managed the big 3 on the first B2B2B but I feel Manu is ready to ride out the rest of the season. He is the heartbeat of the second unit, and keeps a good balance when TP is not in.

[The_Worlds_finest]

fuck it lets get the playoff started and see how this plays out!!!

[DMC]

We could get to the 2nd round if we land a good 1st round opponent. We might even get past that 2nd round if our matchup has a key injury or suspension, or they just shoot piss poor. We probably cannot get through the WCF, but we might. If we get to the Finals, I have no idea what happens from there. We might sweep the Heat. I doubt it, but you never know.

[mercos]

Totally agree with number 1 and believe it is the most important factor. Tony Parker right now is our most dominant player. When he is on and in attack mode he is in the upper echelon of players in this league. He can take over a game like Derrick Rose, Kobe Bryant, and Dwayne Wade. Duncan obviously was once in that category, as was Manu the past few years, but age and injury have derailed them. We need big games out of Parker to make a serious push this year.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Timvp do you really think Avery Bradley is the leagues best defensive point guard?


Yeah, Conley does great against Parker.

[Beanzamillion21]

Timvp do you really think Avery Bradley is the leagues best defensive point guard?


Yeah, Conley does great against Parker.

He is pretty good man.

[slick'81]

lol worried about bonner fckn sucking come playoffs

[TheSkeptic]

He is pretty good man.

Real good. Did you see him against Miami? Awesome pick-up for the Celtics.


lol worried about bonner fckn sucking come playoffs

It's true. I have no idea what there is to worry about in this case.

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

Parker: I thought he played horribly to begin the season, so I can't recall for sure if his last two games have been the worst of the season. I still remember Pop awkwardly grabbing his head that one game to shake some sense into him. Also, he played really well when he wanted to get on the All Star team. I'm impressed that he can turn it on, but the fact that he got motivated for personal honors strikes me as weak motivation in the whole scheme of Spurs teamwork and the system and all that business. He's played well in the playoffs before and I think he can make it happen.

Pop: The last few years he hasn't shown me a lot of confidence in the playoffs, which is understandable given the relative decline of the Big 3, but I'd like to see him take a more active, confident role instead of his existential fear of and excuses about health and rest.

Manu: I agree. He can't be expected to lead the team anymore. Hopefully Tony doesn't expect him to either. But Manu is perfect to lead the second unit. The second unit is the difference maker for the team.

Starting lineup: The new infusion of players is a nice problem to have but players need to know their roles. Especially Blair vs. Diaw. But on that note, Parker needs to know his role as well.

Bonner: I've noticed over the years his fading. I wouldn't be surprised if his regular season 4th Q shooting percentages were lower than his average either. It's ridiculous that the team revolves around him but that's the way it is. He's going to shrivel and Pop is going to overplay him. Hopefully the other players like Neal and Jack can fill the void from deep.

[timvp]

Timvp do you really think Avery Bradley is the leagues best defensive point guard?Yeah, the guy has been a beast this year. Especially over the last couple months. He looked horrible as a rookie but turned it up this year.

(Damn, just looked it up and the Celtics allow only 85 points per 48 minutes that he's in the game. :wow)


lol worried about bonner fckn sucking come playoffsLike it or not, Bonner is going to close games in the playoffs. If he can't at least hit around 38% on threes, the Spurs are doomed.

38% shouldn't be a high bar for him ... but unfortunately it probably is.

[100%duncan]

Agree with all. But you have forgotten health, lol though as if anyone could control that. Good Write-up.

[ElNono]

Like it or not, Bonner is going to close games in the playoffs.

I can't get over this. I just can't. Thanks for ruining my night.

Make that my weekend. :bang:bang:bang:bang:bang:bang:bang

[100%duncan]

I can't get over this. I just can't. Thanks for ruining my night.

Make that my weekend. :bang:bang:bang:bang:bang:bang:bang

Of course, that was a surprise to you my friend.

[ElNono]

I know he's going to close games. I've known for the past 3 or 4 seasons. It's well documented.

I just keep lying to myself and for the most part it works up until the playoffs come around. Then I just can't put it away anymore. :lol

[SA210]

F Pop!

[100%duncan]

I know he's going to close games. I've known for the past 3 or 4 seasons. It's well documented.

I just keep lying to myself and for the most part it works up until the playoffs come around. Then I just can't put it away anymore. :lol

F your week end anyway (insert yao's face). :lmao

[ElNono]

BTW, thanks for the write LJ!

I personally think that it really is going to depend on Tony more than ever. I just don't know what Pop has to do to get him focused. Maybe show him pictures of Westbrook before the games or some fake ballot of an All Star game in June.

[roycrikside]

1. While generally speaking Parker may have a bigger slice of the pie than Tim or Manu, I disagree with the notion that he has to this dominant scorer for the Spurs to win.

For one thing, a game is 48 minutes long. Each of the big three should be able to shoulder the load for 16 minutes of a game. That's not unreasonable.

For another, Tim is still our most indispensable player overall because he has the most defensive responsibility, both in terms of rebounding but also in protecting the rim. The Spurs can win games, even playoff games, with the occasional Parker stinker, because there's plenty of scorers to go around. It will be much harder to win if Duncan isn't close to his best, especially in his own end.

Finally, where I thought Tony's game made a quantum leap this year was in passing, not scoring. He used to be a guy who got his assists only a couple of specific ways, either going all the way to the hoop and kicking it out for a corner three or going behind the basket and hitting the trailer. This year though his pick-and-roll game has been better, his fastbreak passing (both 2-on-1 and 3-on-1) is improved and he's even more accurate on oops. He's got almost all the passes in his bag now that a guy like Nash has.

Don't get me wrong, if the layups or floaters or open 14-footers are there, take 'em sure, but Tony can help the team in more ways than scoring.

2. I've been saying it forever, they can win 5 of these last 9 games playing just 2 of the big 3 and rest the other guy. Personally I'd rest Tim and Tony against the W's, and let Manu and Splitter pick-and-roll them to death about 50 times. I'd play 'em all against LA and then rest Manu at Sac and play Tim and Tony in that one as needed.

I do think with OKC's schedule, the Spurs probably need to finish 8-1 to get the 1 seed because I doubt the Thunder will drop more than one game. And Pop should absolutely coach with the 1 seed in mind, and home court over Miami, too. Right now we have no room to drop a game against either team, but that may change depending on what they do. Still, Pop shouldn't relax unless there is room to relax with. Chicago is too far away, but the rest of them aren't.

3. I agree Manu's minutes need to be elevated. I think he's getting a lot of flak about not driving to the hoop enough, but 1) he knows the whole team (and the entire fanbase) is petrified about him being hurt again and doesn't want to let them down, 2) he's very conscious of having to be the main facilitator of that bench unit. He's gone to the line more the last few days, so I think his aggression is coming back. Personally, I'd play him a bunch against the Warriors (they won't be too physical) and the Lakers and then dial back after that.

4. Diaw should start next to Tim. That's fine. I just wish Tiago's minutes would correspond with Ginobili's. There's no reason for it not to. Manu plays half his minutes with the starters and half with the bench. Tiago can do the same thing. I refuse to believe the offense would get stagnant with Tim and Tiago together, as long as Manu is on the court with them running pick-and-rolls. If the other team adjusts by taking out their 2nd big or by putting in a stretch 4, then okay, take Tiago out, but make them adjust first.

Whatever, just drop Blair already and don't play him unless you're up 25.

I don't much care who starts between Jackson or Kawhi, but they should both play about 20-25 mins, so it doesn't matter.

5. Bonner's shooting will only be a factor if other teams allow it to be. I don't think most teams will leave him open that often, tbh. Maybe in fast break situations where he can be a trail guy or off offensive rebounds, but not in half court sets. Manu and Tony have to read accordingly and take the ball to the basket more, since there will be less help.

What I'm looking for from Bonner is to pump fake and drive aggressively or to make the quick pass. Either way, a quick and correct decision, no hesitation. Also, his work on the other end is just as important, because teams will test him until he proves he's up to the challenge.

[TDMVPDPOY]

im only concerned with duncan and whoever decides taking turns to show up....if duncan plays like he gives a damn for the playoffs, then every game is winnable...we cant afford to have pop continue to play the white flag shit when we are down in the first half...

[elemento]

Good points

One thing that concerns me is when we face good rebounding teams. It was painful to watch us against the Bulls and the Lakers. I don't know if it's a matter of effort or if we suck at it, but it has made a huge difference so far.

[mystargtr34]

Yeah, the guy has been a beast this year. Especially over the last couple months. He looked horrible as a rookie but turned it up this year.

(Damn, just looked it up and the Celtics allow only 85 points per 48 minutes that he's in the game. :wow)

Like it or not, Bonner is going to close games in the playoffs. If he can't at least hit around 38% on threes, the Spurs are doomed.

38% shouldn't be a high bar for him ... but unfortunately it probably is.

Yeah defensively Avery Bradley is pretty much George Hill with better lateral quickness and defensive IQ... thats a scary combination. When they drafted him.. Doc specifically said he could easily become one of the best defensive PG's in the league.

[Bruno]

Basically, Parker just needs to be more selfish, be more reluctant to defer and stay in attack mode. Maybe at some point in the playoffs, Duncan and Ginobili will be ready to become the go-to players ... but that's not the case right now. It has to be Parker.

Parker will do whatever Pop will ask him to do. Even after all these successful NBA years, Parker can still be coached like a rookie by Pop. Pop can call him out, scream at him and TP will react positively. To keep Parker in attack mode, it will just take Pop saying him "you must stay aggressive and I want you to take at least 20 shots in this game".


Pop Forfeiting the Wrong Games

I don't know if Spurs should forfeit some games or not but Spurs priority for the rest of the season should be to put Lakers on Thunder side of the playoffs bracket. It will significantly increase Spurs odds of winning the west. Spurs should focus on that even if the cost is to enter in the playoffs a little tired. It would be great too if Spurs could avoid Mavs in the first round.


The Starting Lineup

My guesstimate for the playoffs starting lineup is Parker/Green/Jackson/Diaw/Duncan. Agree? Do you like it?



Since the Spurs rely (and will continue to rely) on Bonner's shooting, I'm beyond worried of how Bonner is going to shoot in the playoffs. I'm petrified.

I'm sure a lot of Spurs fans are. :lol

[temujin]

So, no more drama for the lack of Duncan-Splitter together, or Splitter's minutes.
Good.

Parker.
Not worried, he is probably a bit tired overall, he has played way way too many minutes.

Games.
I disagree with the @Lakers game. What did winning that close game @LAL do last year? The one game to win is the final Lakers game @SA. I wouldn't be surprised if Pop is playing mind games with the Lakers coaching staff (Brown and Messina, both know the SA system quite well), and should continue to do so. All other games are winnable without playing anyone >28'.

Ginobili's minutes.
I agree he should be playing a couple of >30' games, just to feel it, but never on btb and, in general, he should never never do again what he did with Memphis, going for loose balls and rebounds amid flying elbows. Keep that for PO, Manu.

Starting lineup.
Never obsessed by starting lineups. Other than Blair really really looks out of place against teams with big lineups.

Bonner.
Stats need controls. I don't see any. What are Bonner stats in the other months? Incidentally, I see a lot of variation over the years, is this true for the other months as well? Honestly, stating Bonner's % in April is like stating % on Thursday nights. Bonner is less important this year, in general, come PO time.

I see two defensive issues.
1) Full court press. We saw some in the Memphis game, and I think it payed off late in the game, with Conley making mistakes down the stretch. The Spurs have now the players to do so, even in PO games. Go for it.
2) Zone defense. That's what gave the Mavs their title in the end. The Spurs have lineups with smart, agile, mobile players that could really be playing a deadly zone. Against teams with no great outside shooters, and there will be some in PO, that could be a weapon. But I realize this is a lost cause because Popovich, for whatever reason, never really did that, unless desperate.

[Keepin' it real]

Like it or not, Bonner is going to close games in the playoffs.

In other words, we're FUCKED. :ihit

[romsho]

Whether he is or not, Tony Parker has to show up with the attitude that he is the best player on the floor...absolutely has to be agressive from jump and in attack mode. The Spurs can get away with subpar games from him against bad teams, but not against playoff competition. The last trip to OKC is a perfect example..he took over that game early and the Spurs rolled. If he's going to have a bad game, it cannot be from lack of aggression. It's a superstar mindset...he needs to accept that responsibility for this team to go anywhere.

I also agree with you about Manu...there are many reasons to keep him coming off the bench, but maybe none more right now then the pick and roll combination he has going on with Splitter. It's deadly, and should continue to be a focal point of the 2nd unit offense when in the halfcourt. Seeing two guys with off the chart basketball IQ's run that thing to perfection is a thing of beauty, and a strength that most other teams won't be able to match with their bench, much less starters. No reason to change that.

[ManuTastic]

Yeah, the guy has been a beast this year. Especially over the last couple months. He looked horrible as a rookie but turned it up this year.

(Damn, just looked it up and the Celtics allow only 85 points per 48 minutes that he's in the game. :wow)

Like it or not, Bonner is going to close games in the playoffs. If he can't at least hit around 38% on threes, the Spurs are doomed.

38% shouldn't be a high bar for him ... but unfortunately it probably is.

Of course one major difference is that in the playoffs the defense actually stays home on our shooters instead of giving them wide open looks. Bonner's makes nearly always come when he's shooting without defensive pressure, imo.

[T Park]

I still think had they won game 1 last year Bonner wouldve finally shaken off the bugs.
Those 3's he made were clutch no matter who shot em.

That said, of he struggles Pop at least now has Diaw to go to.

[Old School 44]

Amazingly, Manu Ginobili hasn't played more than 30 minutes in a contest this year since the first game of the season. While I'm in favor of Pop being careful with Ginobili down the stretch in an effort to ensure his health for the postseason, I also think Pop should pick a game or two to push his minutes up to around 35 or 36. Relying on the playoffs to be the stage where Ginobili begins to build his endurance sounds like a dangerous proposition to me.

The "resting" thing is great during the regular season to protect guys from injury, but I wonder sometimes how it affects player's endurance in the playoffs. Our depth is the best in the league, but if we're not going to use that depth and push the big three's minutes to 35+ per game this really concerns me.

It concerns me more for Duncan than Ginobili, and moreso on defense than offense. What other big is going to step up and help TD defend the paint? Blair, who will probably see his minutes dramatically reduced. Splitter, who hasn't seen any time with Duncan and will probably be sucking wind, if his minutes go past 25. (no fault of his). Bonner, who's 3-pt shot is affected not only by the playoff defense applied to him, but the defense he's expected to play against opposing bigs who salivate over this matchup. Diaw, maybe... but he hasn't seen enough court time either.
And if none of the other bigs are effective, can we expect a heavy dose of small ball?

[benefactor]

Good thoughts. I pretty much agree with everything.

Like ElNono...I'm trying to block the Bonner situation out of my mind. I long for the days when Bonner used to screw up and Pop would doghouse him. Now when he sees Bonner all he sees is a mixture of Robert Horry and Michael Finley.

[acoelho1]

Parker will do whatever Pop will ask him to do. Even after all these successful NBA years, Parker can still be coached like a rookie by Pop. Pop can call him out, scream at him and TP will react positively. To keep Parker in attack mode, it will just take Pop saying him "you must stay aggressive and I want you to take at least 20 shots in this game".

It didn't seem to work last year in the Memphis series. Parker is a very frustrating player, sometimes he comes out with a chip on his shoulder like in the OKC game where he dismantled Westbrook and then there other times where he seems disinterested.

I've never figured out Parker in terms of what really motivates him at the end of the day. Let's hope we see more of the OKC Parker in the playoffs.

[TDMVPDPOY]

I've never figured out Parker in terms of what really motivates him at the end of the day. Let's hope we see more of the OKC Parker in the playoffs.

frog face vs frog face

[EVAY]

Parker: I thought he played horribly to begin the season, so I can't recall for sure if his last two games have been the worst of the season. I still remember Pop awkwardly grabbing his head that one game to shake some sense into him. Also, he played really well when he wanted to get on the All Star team. I'm impressed that he can turn it on, but the fact that he got motivated for personal honors strikes me as weak motivation in the whole scheme of Spurs teamwork and the system and all that business. He's played well in the playoffs before and I think he can make it happen.

If it is true that Parker can 'turn it on' for the all-star game (I don't honestly believe that - I think he was genuinely trying to carry the team in Manu's absence), wouldn't the logical corollary be that Tim Duncan has turned it on this season because he is negotiating a new contract at the end of the season?

He showed up in better shape and has played better this year than in the last three years. His contract is up and he wants a new one for X number of years at Y million per year. At a similar point in his career, David Robinson threatened to leave the spurs if he didn't get X number of years at 12M or so per year. What do you think Duncan is looking for?

Isn't he making about $22M per year now? Shouldn't he be carrying the team for that amount of money?

So if Duncan has played better and looked better this season than any in the past several, given your logic, wouldn't the same motivational concerns accrue to Tim and his play that do to Parker's?

[DesignatedT]

I disagree on how to handle the b2b2b. I play all my guys against GSW and SAC and give LA the middle game. By doing this you assure yourself to win 2 out of the 3 which would be a good stand. If we sit the guys out (and lose) and then lose to LAL full strength that would be even worse for this teams confidence going forward.

The reason I do this is because we play LAL 2 nights later at home in which the Spurs should treat as a must win. Going 1-2 against LAL is fine and this scenario makes sure we are getting as many wins as possible as well.

[vander]

seems to me that even with bonner shooting poorly of late, spurs still doing the most damage while he's in the game, so, he's vital even when shooting 33%. also, people seem to forget that bonner's shooting is dependant in part on the offense, the big 3, getting him OPEN looks rather than kinda open looks. if TP and manu are getting shut down by playoff level D, that's gonna make bonner look bad, comparetively. Mostly TP, I think Bonner plays best when TP is getting him the open looks, one more reason we need TP to be at his best.

[Ryan Fitzpatrick]

Mario Chalmers is a damn good defensive point as well

[wildbill2u]

1. Parker may be a little tired after carrying the team on his back all year. Now that the playoffs are looming he may have lost some focus.

2. Pop forfeiting the wrong game? Pop has been an absolute wizard all year and may even be COTY as he is getting lots of respect and kudos for his coaching, including managing the minutes of the Big 3. TIMVP's choices for 'team management' ( I hate even the implication using the word "forfeit") are a pretty good analysis, but whatever Pop does will be carefully thought out in his craft mind.

2. Starting group and starting minutes may not be so important since Pop has used his bench so much this year and has confidence in at least 10 players. He might continue to start Blair just to use up some minutes when he is fresh and moving well. I sense that TimVp loves Jax so much he'd like to see him start--but Jax hasn't earned it so far. Young Guns Leonard and Green earned the spot, but again, Pop has shown he's got a quick hook to take these guys out if they don't produce or have a bad matchup.

4. Manu. He's Manu Ginobilli. As long as he's healthy. he is the heart of this team because of his will to win. Doesn't matter where he plays or how many minutes as long as he is our closer. Other teams have to fear--and our players have to feel confidence--when they see #20 checking into the game in the closing minutes.

5. Bonner. Interesting stats on Bonner in April. We always talk about other players getting tired and hitting the wall, mentally and physically, at the end of the season or at the end of a game, but most of us never consider Bonner in that regard. When you think about it, he's a big, kinda blocky guy, and not what you'd consider a natural athlete.

It is what it is. He's helped win a couple of close games lately at the end with a timely block, rebound or 3. Players react differently to criticism by coaches and fans, so as fans, let's just pray for him to do better this year instead of getting down on him. Can't hurt if you believe in the power of prayer or good karma from positive thinking.

.

[Mugen]

seems to me that even with bonner shooting poorly of late, spurs still doing the most damage while he's in the game, so, he's vital even when shooting 33%. also, people seem to forget that bonner's shooting is dependant in part on the offense, the big 3, getting him OPEN looks rather than kinda open looks. if TP and manu are getting shut down by playoff level D, that's gonna make bonner look bad, comparetively. Mostly TP, I think Bonner plays best when TP is getting him the open looks, one more reason we need TP to be at his best.

:lmao Kinda open in the NBA means your wide open.

[Mugen]

I just hope that after another year of choking in the playoffs, he's gone in the offseason.

[Spur|n|Austin]

I disagree on how to handle the b2b2b. I play all my guys against GSW and SAC and give LA the middle game. By doing this you assure yourself to win 2 out of the 3 which would be a good stand. If we sit the guys out (and lose) and then lose to LAL full strength that would be even worse for this teams confidence going forward.

The reason I do this is because we play LAL 2 nights later at home in which the Spurs should treat as a must win. Going 1-2 against LAL is fine and this scenario makes sure we are getting as many wins as possible as well.

I'd have to agree with your plan here. Giving our bench a go against a full LA team will hopefully boost their confidence, then put a full squad against them next time we face them in a must win.

[tmtcsc]

Yeah, #1 is troublesome. Tony is unpredictable and has played with his head up his backside these last two games. He loses focus and just plays scared.

[Blake]

Like it or not, Bonner is going to close games in the playoffs. If he can't at least hit around 38% on threes, the Spurs are doomed.

38% shouldn't be a high bar for him ... but unfortunately it probably is.

If you look at the Memphis game, Bonner hit two shots in the 4th quarter where his foot was on the 3 pt line.

Give him those several inches and Bonner's April 2012 numbers become 12 of 32 or 37.5%.

Just sayin.

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

If it is true that Parker can 'turn it on' for the all-star game (I don't honestly believe that - I think he was genuinely trying to carry the team in Manu's absence), wouldn't the logical corollary be that Tim Duncan has turned it on this season because he is negotiating a new contract at the end of the season?

He showed up in better shape and has played better this year than in the last three years. His contract is up and he wants a new one for X number of years at Y million per year. At a similar point in his career, David Robinson threatened to leave the spurs if he didn't get X number of years at 12M or so per year. What do you think Duncan is looking for?

Isn't he making about $22M per year now? Shouldn't he be carrying the team for that amount of money?

So if Duncan has played better and looked better this season than any in the past several, given your logic, wouldn't the same motivational concerns accrue to Tim and his play that do to Parker's?

I'm not sure what logic, if any, you are using. Tony Parker and Tim Duncan are two different people and act individually of each other.

If you take umbrage that I suggested Tony gets motivated for personal achievements, like stepping up his game against other top point guards, or, yes, turning up his game in the weeks preceding the All Star game, and then cooling off right after the All Star game, then I guess we'll have to disagree.

[timvp]

1. While generally speaking Parker may have a bigger slice of the pie than Tim or Manu, I disagree with the notion that he has to this dominant scorer for the Spurs to win. I don't think Parker has to be the dominant scorer but he has to stay in attack mode playmaking-wise. When he's constantly looking to make things happen, that's when he's helping the team the most.


For another, Tim is still our most indispensable player overall because he has the most defensive responsibility, both in terms of rebounding but also in protecting the rim. The Spurs can win games, even playoff games, with the occasional Parker stinker, because there's plenty of scorers to go around. It will be much harder to win if Duncan isn't close to his best, especially in his own end. Good point. Can't really argue with it.


Finally, where I thought Tony's game made a quantum leap this year was in passing, not scoring. He used to be a guy who got his assists only a couple of specific ways, either going all the way to the hoop and kicking it out for a corner three or going behind the basket and hitting the trailer. This year though his pick-and-roll game has been better, his fastbreak passing (both 2-on-1 and 3-on-1) is improved and he's even more accurate on oops. He's got almost all the passes in his bag now that a guy like Nash has.

Don't get me wrong, if the layups or floaters or open 14-footers are there, take 'em sure, but Tony can help the team in more ways than scoring. :tu


I don't think most teams will leave Bonner open that often, tbh. Maybe in fast break situations where he can be a trail guy or off offensive rebounds, but not in half court sets. There have been times in the playoffs where teams have figured out they didn't need to guard him closely since he was in full-choke mode (the Mavs, for one, stopped guarding him too closely in the playoffs).

If Bonner can remain enough of a threat to remain guarded closely, then he'd be doing his job. Unfortunately, that too is far from given.

[timvp]

I don't know if Spurs should forfeit some games or not but Spurs priority for the rest of the season should be to put Lakers on Thunder side of the playoffs bracket. It will significantly increase Spurs odds of winning the west. Spurs should focus on that even if the cost is to enter in the playoffs a little tired. It would be great too if Spurs could avoid Mavs in the first round.Yeah, avoiding the Lakers is probably more of a key than having HCA over OKC, tbh.

What sucks is that if the Spurs beat the Lakers, they make a 1 seed vs. 4 seed matchup more likely. If the Spurs lose to the Lakers, they make a 2 seed vs. 3 seed matchup more likely. It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation :depressed


My guesstimate for the playoffs starting lineup is Parker/Green/Jackson/Diaw/Duncan. Agree? Do you like it?I'm fine with Diaw starting but I'd probably prefer to keep Leonard in the starting lineup.

1. If he's going to be the lead perimeter defender, he's best utilized as a starter.

2. He needs stable minutes and starting is the best way to get that.

3. The bench unit, more than the starting unit, needs shooting and floor spacing. SJax provides that better.


But, yeah, it's a difficult decision because all four wings have legit cases to start.

[DesignatedT]

If the Spurs get the 1 and knock down LA to 4 by doing it that would most likely set up an LAL/MEM first round. I'm not so sure LAL is a for sure to get out of that. Even if LAL finishes 3 and Dallas gets the 6, that should be an interesting series as well.

[timvp]

So, no more drama for the lack of Duncan-Splitter together, or Splitter's minutes.Worrying about the inevitable is pointless, tbh.


Bonner.
Stats need controls. I don't see any. What are Bonner stats in the other months?

Career splits:

Bonner Three-Point Percentage
November: 46.3%
December: 42.5%
January: 41.4%
February: 45.3%
March: 40.4%
April: 34.7%


The only year Bonner shot over 40% on three-pointers in April was in 2006 with the Raptors ... the only season in which the team he was on had no chance of making the playoffs. Coincidence? Let's hope so.


Bonner is less important this year, in general, come PO time.Extremely disagree. The last few years, Pop had McDyess to end games. Now it's up to Bonner. His minutes may be similar but his role is more vital.

[spurs10]

If I'm not mistaken the Clippers own the tiebreaker with the Lakers. OKC has a very good shot at keeping the first seed no matter what. I think chances are we are staying at the 2 seed and the Lakers could drop to 4, especially if we beat them.
We won't have hca against the Thunder, but they very likely will have their hands full in the second round. We can win OKC either way.

[timvp]

Starting group and starting minutes may not be so important since Pop has used his bench so much this year and has confidence in at least 10 players.The starting lineup become more important in the playoffs. It's unavoidable.


I sense that TimVp loves Jax so much he'd like to see him start--but Jax hasn't earned it so far.Your spidey senses need rebooting, tbh. :)

[Blake]

Extremely disagree. The last few years, Pop had McDyess to end games. Now it's up to Bonner. His minutes may be similar but his role is more vital.

Wouldn't surprise me at all to see Diaw resume that McDyess role come playoff time

[TheSkeptic]

Wouldn't surprise me at all to see Diaw resume that McDyess role come playoff time

Diaw seems a little out of shape and less willing to shoot though. I'm hoping he can be more aggressive in the playoffs but I'm not sure.

[therealtruth]

The starting lineup become more important in the playoffs.

I agree how you start is much more important in the playoffs. Teams are going to zero-in against all the starters weaknesses. That's why it's tricky starting playoff rookies.

[TD 21]

2 and 3 concern me the most.

How do you know Ginobili "can't be counted on for big minutes"? If true, they have no one but themselves to blame. Not playing him even 30 minutes, let alone in excess of that, for virtually the entire season, is insane. You know how you prepare someone to play 35 minutes? By gradually building them up to that. Not continuing to baby them and arbitrarily deciding they can't do it, months removed from an injury that wasn't exactly career altering.

This reminds me of when he went down early in the season. Supposedly, the Spurs weren't capable of anything but being a fringe playoff team. I begged to differ (go back and check if you don't believe me; it was one of your threads). Look what happened. Classic case of not knowing what you're capable of until you're forced to do something.

And this notion that he can't start and run the second unit is nonsense. He did it last season, so why couldn't he do it now? Just sub him out at the 5 minute mark, bring him back at the 1 minute mark, then sub him out again at the 8 minute mark and bring him back at the 4-5 minute mark. Then repeat the same thing in the second half.

[therealtruth]

2 and 3 concern me the most.

How do you know Ginobili "can't be counted on for big minutes"? If true, they have no one but themselves to blame. Not playing him even 30 minutes, let alone in excess of that, for virtually the entire season, is insane. You know how you prepare someone to play 35 minutes? By gradually building them up to that. Not continuing to baby them and arbitrarily deciding they can't do it, months removed from an injury that wasn't exactly career altering.

This reminds me of when he went down early in the season. Supposedly, the Spurs weren't capable of anything but being a fringe playoff team. I begged to differ (go back and check if you don't believe me; it was one of your threads). Look what happened. Classic case of not knowing what you're capable of until you're forced to do something.

And this notion that he can't start and run the second unit is nonsense. He did it last season, so why couldn't he do it now? Just sub him out at the 5 minute mark, bring him back at the 1 minute mark, then sub him out again at the 8 minute mark and bring him back at the 4-5 minute mark. Then repeat the same thing in the second half.

People forget how many games we won with Ginobili as the starter.

[angelbelow]

Good write up :tu

I need to see a few more games out of Parker to decide whether to be concerned or not. He's been great all year but hes also carrying a heavy load. We were without Tj for most of the season and Mills is a recent addition.

Manu absolutely has to play more, couldn't agree more. I think he should start as well. He should be playing minutes with both the starting lineup and the 2nd unit because hes just that damn good. Splitter should be attached to his hip too. I thought Parker and Splitter developed some nice chemistry but Tiago and Manu's was instant.

I'm hoping Bonner snaps out of it when the playoffs starts. The law of averages could be on our side here..

[Slippy]

Dont agree with one. If anything , Tony Parker needs Manu and to a lesser extent TD to be more assertive when teams are focused on containing his own game.

It's always been the case. Tony parker coming out saying we need a healthy Manu wasn't for nothing and i do remember Parker saying he preferred Manu starting. A big reason for why is that it free's up Tony from opposing defenses.

[timvp]

How do you know Ginobili "can't be counted on for big minutes"?He can't be counted on for big minutes since we don't know if can handle it due to lack of evidence. He probably can but since he hasn't played more than 30 minutes since the season opener, that's more of a guess than anything.


And this notion that he can't start and run the second unit is nonsense. He did it last season, so why couldn't he do it now? Just sub him out at the 5 minute mark, bring him back at the 1 minute mark, then sub him out again at the 8 minute mark and bring him back at the 4-5 minute mark. Then repeat the same thing in the second half.That plan calls for Manu playing more than 30 minutes. Until Manu actually plays that many minutes regularly, then the best way to ensure he can always run the second unit is to bring him off the bench.


People forget how many games we won with Ginobili as the starter.Who has forgotten that?

[TD 21]

He can't be counted on for big minutes since we don't know if can handle it due to lack of evidence. He probably can but since he hasn't played more than 30 minutes since the season opener, that's more of a guess than anything.

Just like the vast majority of you didn't know the Spurs could still be one of the best teams in the league without him . . . until you did.

Time is running out. I agree with you that there's probably only four more games where we'll see some semblance of a playoff rotation, minutes wise. That's why, unless they blow this game open relatively early tonight, he should play in excess of 30 minutes, particularly in light of a potential two days off following this.


That plan calls for Manu playing more than 30 minutes. Until Manu actually plays that many minutes regularly, then the best way to ensure he can always run the second unit is to bring him off the bench.I realize that, but the time is now to start playing the playoff rotation. They can shave off another 1-2 minutes by waiting until the automatic under 3 timeout in 1st half to bring him back, instead of the 4-5 minute mark. There's no reason to think he can't handle 31-33 mpg in 4 or 5 games down the stretch. Plus, that would jive perfectly with beginning to get him used to play those types of minutes regularly.

[Brazil]

Speaking of Parker, I disagree with the commonly held opinion that Parker struggled simply due to facing big, physical teams. Against the Grizzlies, he appeared unconfident, out of rhythm and just couldn't complete plays he has completed all season long. And, reluctantly, I think we need to start giving credit to Mike Conley. Outside Avery Bradley of the Celtics, Conley has evolved into probably the best defensive point guard in the league. Add in Memphis' overall fundamentally sound defense and I don't think that is a team the Spurs can expect Parker to dominate against on a regular basis.

But the Lakers are a different story. After Wednesday's game, "Parker always sucks against the Lakers; their just too long" was written a lot. Looking back through the years, it's just not true.



I posted that on another thread.

Against the Grizz last two seasons (13 games) incl POs, TP is shooting 46%, 17.8 pts per game, 6.4 assists, 1.5 stls and 3.2 TOs. Against Grizz TP struggles a bit with a lower FG% and 0.6 more TO than his regular average but it's not like he is far below his usual production.

As for the Lakers his production is very comparable that what he usually do. Last 17 games againts the lakers TP is shooting 50%, has 19 pts a game, 5.5 assists, 1 stl and 2.3 TOs. Last PO serie against the Lakers, 48% FG, 19 ppg, 5.6 assists, 0.8 stl, 2.4 TOs.

[Legacy]

All I have to say is BRING IT ON! "Sacrificial by Fire", Baby!! That's what makes you THE BEST OF THE BEST, IMO!! :ihit


Now, if only this guy right here -------->> :pop: could get that through his old, thick, and crusty skull. :nope :sleep


So, I still believe in miracles, I suppose. That is all. :flag:

[Mal]

Great write-up, hope someone from Spurs organizations read it.

[pgardn]

If this is really legit:

But Pop has to be smart about this. If he forfeits the wrong games, he could hurt the team's confidence ...


We dont deserve chit...

[Fabbs]

2. Pop Forfeiting the Wrong Games
Overall, while the schedule looks daunting, Pop can navigate it while giving the Spurs a legit chance to win each game. The Spurs can forfeit two contests (the Warriors games), limit minutes in three contests (Kings, Cavs, Blazers) and play the full roster in the other four games (Lakers twice, Suns twice). When you think about it that way, trying hard in four games over the next 13 days shouldn't be too taxing.

concur! :tu

[SA210]

2. Pop Forfeiting the Wrong Games

Just like he already has a few times already.

[Man In Black]

I was cracking up when April kicked in and Bonner, in the few losses the team had, was missing wide open 3's the board had started calling him PLAYOFF Bonner:lmao

THEY HAVE TO BE MEN IN BLACK AND BUST OUT THE GUNS EVERYTIME THEY STEP.ON THE COURT!
Where's that old school Parker Ginobili Men In Black pic in the chairs with the weaponry when I need it? :bang

ALSO...WHERE ARE THE BEARDS?

[Fabbs]

5. Matt Bonner's Shooting
Is Matt Bonner a choker or simply the world's most unluckiest basketball player?
:rollin good one.