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View Full Version : Player Pairs - April 14, 2012



timvp
04-14-2012, 06:34 PM
Here's the latest update. I included all minutes except for when Diogu, Thomas, Dawson or Dentmon were on the court. A green cell means that the player in the column improved the number for the player in the row. A red cell means the opposite. So basically, the more green in a player's column, the better.



Point Differential Per 100 Possessions
http://www.dailyelements.com/pp4-1.jpg


Points Scored Per 100 Possessions
http://www.dailyelements.com/pp4-2.jpg


Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions
http://www.dailyelements.com/pp4-3.jpg


Minutes Played
http://www.dailyelements.com/pp4-4.jpg



Observations:




-Tony Parker's defense continues to be a quiet bright spot this season. Offensively, at first glance Parker's red is surprising ... but then once you consider he is starting next to the four most offensively-challenged players in the rotation, it's much less surprisingly. His numbers point to a fivesome of Parker, Ginobili, Jackson, Bonner and Splitter being a fantastic unit, which makes sense.

-The numbers for Tim Duncan continue to say he's not close to his prime level of play. It's notable that Duncan makes both Parker and Ginobili about half as effective as they usually are. Bonner and Jackson are two players that really help him. It's disappointing that Duncan next to Diaw hasn't been successful. Obviously, the sample size isn't very large but the defensive numbers much worse than I would have guessed.

-Manu Ginobili has been amazing offensively but not so hot defensively. Overall, though, his offense has easily outshined any negatives. It's great to see that he works so well next to Leonard. Diaw and Jackson have both been a good fit next to Ginobili. Jackson and Ginobili show some defensive promise. (Speaking of which, Ginobili's defense is best when he's playing with one of the other shooting guards. Could that mean his best defensive position these days is small forward? Further evidence to support that theory is his defense is bad when next to Leonard. Hmm...)

-While Kawhi Leonard still mostly has red, his numbers have improved as the year has progressed. Defensively, he's very solid when he has Duncan or Diaw behind him. Otherwise, not so much. Offensively, he's great next to Ginobili, which is logical since Ginobili is such a great passer that he allows Leonard to get a ton of easy buckets.

-Even though Danny Green has some explosive shooting outbursts, he's mainly just a defensive player. Outside of Parker (and Jackson if you want to include him), Green grades out as the best perimeter defender on the team.

-Gary Neal's colors couldn't paint a clearer pictures. Very good offensive player, horrible defensive player. Unfortunately, his bad defense overshadows his offense; he brings everyone down overall except Parker and Duncan -- and even those are just barely up. Neal and Blair together produces some of the worst defense ever witnessed on a contending NBA team.

-Speaking of DeJuan Blair, this says he's by far the weakest link on the team. His poor defense makes him unplayable next to Bonner, Neal, Green and Splitter. His poor offense can only be camaflauged by Ginobili.

-Matt Bonner is The King. Outside of his defense next to Blair and Leonard, he makes every other player on the roster better on both sides of the court. That's fantastic work by Bonner. Now let us pray that he can translate this level of play to the playoffs.

-Tiago Splitter's offensive numbers have remained strong -- outside of his inability so far to produce next to Duncan. Although, defensively, it looks like Splitter has been slipping lately. He hasn't done well next to the new guys and his numbers next to Ginobili and Leonard are surprisingly really high. That said, his overall numbers continue to be one of the best on the team.

-To say Boris Diaw has had a smooth transition so far would be an understatement. If you want to know why, look at what he's done when next to Bonner. Sure, small sample size ... but that's extremely high regardless. In fact, that duo has the highest scoring mark and the best defensive mark. It's at least partially a fluke obviously but Pop should think about trying it out a bit more just in case.

-Stephen Jackson has also had a smooth transition. He does his best work next to the players he knows (TP, TD, Manu and Diaw) and The King, which makes sense. Jackson and Diaw's defensive chemistry especially shines through.

-The current starting lineup looks broken judging by these numbers. Blair plays poorly next to Leonard and Green. Leonard and Green don't play well with each other. If Pop is going to put Jackson in the starting lineup, he might want to think about replacing Green instead of Leonard since Jackson and Green have been offensively inept when paired. Starting Diaw should be an upgrade ... as long as that Diaw/Duncan number is a fluke and not indicative of a poor match.

-When Pop trims the rotation, the obvious player to cut is Blair. Beyond him, the next on the chopping block could arguably be Neal since his defense is so horrible.

-When you think of Jackson and Diaw, you first think of what they bring on the offensive side of the court. But come the playoffs, it's their defense that could make them invaluable.

DontStopBelieving
04-14-2012, 06:35 PM
Thanks for these.:)

Beanzamillion21
04-14-2012, 06:37 PM
timvp always with the goods.

FuzzyLumpkins
04-14-2012, 06:45 PM
Love this. and lol at Bonner as The King.

vander
04-14-2012, 06:47 PM
well, there goes my theory of Bonner playing better with TP creating the offense rather than Manu

Paranoid Pop
04-14-2012, 06:47 PM
Actually seeing these numbers an argument could be made to start Tiago only to unleash that monster Bonner-Diaw frontline, that's a more valid argument than any I've read so far :lol.

Then again they only played together vs Dallas, the Jazz and maybe the Hornets if I remember correctly.

freetiago
04-14-2012, 06:52 PM
more fuel for the fire
duncan and splitter start together
diaw/bonner second unit with some tiago sprinkled in could handle other second units
blair= amensty

diaw and jack makes sense since the bobcats were the #1 defensive team in the nba 2 years ago with both of them getting about 40+ minutes per game

also do you think diaw could play SF in the second unit
ginobili
neal
diaw
bonner
splitter

slick'81
04-14-2012, 06:53 PM
bonner is a playmaker

Mal
04-14-2012, 06:55 PM
I wonder if Pop should bench Kawhi for playoffs. Green , Jax and Manu could do his work. He isnt looking good, and since playoff rotation will be limited to 8-9 guys, Kawhi could or even should be out of it.

DontStopBelieving
04-14-2012, 06:55 PM
more fuel for the fire
duncan and splitter start together
diaw/bonner second unit with some tiago sprinkled in could handle other second units
blair= amensty

diaw and jack makes sense since the bobcats were the #1 defensive team in the nba 2 years ago with both of them getting about 40+ minutes per game

also do you think diaw could play SF in the second unit
ginobili
neal
diaw
bonner
splitter

no

Spurs-Fan
04-14-2012, 06:58 PM
Very interesting. Thank you, timvp. :toast

timvp
04-14-2012, 07:03 PM
I hadn't thought of starting Duncan and Splitter for defensive purposes and then to setup the Bonner and Diaw combo off the bench ... but I gotta admit it's intriguing.

How would a team go about defending a lineup of Neal, Ginobili, Jackson, Bonner and Diaw? If that quintet can survive defensively, it could be the ultimate headache for the opposition.

:drunk

CGD
04-14-2012, 07:04 PM
I think we've see the last of Blair this season.

Robz4000
04-14-2012, 07:11 PM
Really wish there was a way to force Pop to read these posts; they really show some unlikely yet interesting numbers. Guess Bonner's playing time isn't just blatant favoritism.

slick'81
04-14-2012, 07:22 PM
yeah its kinda sad when ur only option at the 4 is bonner. diaw inexp in the system and blair is garbarge and we all know tiago isnt getting in there

therealtruth
04-14-2012, 07:30 PM
I hadn't thought of starting Duncan and Splitter for defensive purposes and then to setup the Bonner and Diaw combo off the bench ... but I gotta admit it's intriguing.

How would a team go about defending a lineup of Neal, Ginobili, Jackson, Bonner and Diaw? If that quintet can survive defensively, it could be the ultimate headache for the opposition.

:drunk

Diaw started at center for the Suns. I'm sure he can make it work.

therealtruth
04-14-2012, 07:33 PM
yeah its kinda sad when ur only option at the 4 is bonner. diaw inexp in the system and blair is garbarge and we all know tiago isnt getting in there

Blair could really add something to this team if he could get his energy and defensive rebounding back and quit making boneheaded mistakes. But at this point with other options there's really no need to play him except to not hurt his feelings.

roycrikside
04-14-2012, 07:35 PM
Been saying for a while now that if Spurs are gonna trim to a 9-man rotation that Blair and Neal are the guys that gotta go. Glad the numbers prove it.

TheSkeptic
04-14-2012, 07:38 PM
Really wish there was a way to force Pop to read these posts; they really show some unlikely yet interesting numbers. Guess Bonner's playing time isn't just blatant favoritism.

No I think it's still favouritism.

These numbers reflect team performance when Bonner's on the court right?

When Bonner plays, he benefits from playing with significantly better players (Tim & Tiago) who usually guard the stronger players and who will often rotate if Bonner can't control his man along with perimeter players who are always willing to sag off the perimeter and double where it's necessary. Plus about half of his minutes are against second-unit players.

All he needs to do is try his best on defense, hustle, and be ready on offense, because (let's be honest) he's not creating his own looks as even a screen-setter.

Pop has carved out a role for him that perfectly maximizes his strengths and minimizes his weaknesses, has put Bonner in a position where our championship hopes rest on his ability to not disappear, and to add insult to injury even then he overplays him. All this after Bonner's history in the playoffs.

In my opinion, Pop's playing favourites and attempting to force different results out of the same recipe.

Cant_Be_Faded
04-14-2012, 08:00 PM
Neal would be worth playing if he had a slight offensive percentage bump to put him at last years levels

Danny.Zhu
04-14-2012, 08:46 PM
Great writeup.

Slomo
04-15-2012, 04:21 AM
Really wish there was a way to force Pop to read these posts; they really show some unlikely yet interesting numbers. Guess Bonner's playing time isn't just blatant favoritism.


You are very naive if you think Pop doesn't get even more detailed and in depth analysis from his staff on a daily basis.

chazley
04-15-2012, 04:36 AM
No I think it's still favouritism.

These numbers reflect team performance when Bonner's on the court right?

When Bonner plays, he benefits from playing with significantly better players (Tim & Tiago) who usually guard the stronger players and who will often rotate if Bonner can't control his man along with perimeter players who are always willing to sag off the perimeter and double where it's necessary. Plus about half of his minutes are against second-unit players.

All he needs to do is try his best on defense, hustle, and be ready on offense, because (let's be honest) he's not creating his own looks as even a screen-setter.

Pop has carved out a role for him that perfectly maximizes his strengths and minimizes his weaknesses, has put Bonner in a position where our championship hopes rest on his ability to not disappear, and to add insult to injury even then he overplays him. All this after Bonner's history in the playoffs.

In my opinion, Pop's playing favourites and attempting to force different results out of the same recipe.

This post reflected about 95% of Spurstalk last year, while this year I have been proven to be exactly correct in my analysis of Bonner. If this team makes a deep run, he will have to be an important piece of it.

Start giving Bonner some fucking credit, or you could just choose to trot some token grandma out on the court and I guess if she just hustles and hits some open shots, she will magically have an amazing +/- because she will be playing next to great players. Give the man some fucking credit - he's been crushing it in plus minus this year and it's not a fluke or just a result of playing next to great players.

therealtruth
04-15-2012, 04:44 AM
This post reflected about 95% of Spurstalk last year, while this year I have been proven to be exactly correct in my analysis of Bonner. If this team makes a deep run, he will have to be an important piece of it.

Start giving Bonner some fucking credit, or you could just choose to trot some token grandma out on the court and I guess if she just hustles and hits some open shots, she will magically have an amazing +/- because she will be playing next to great players. Give the man some fucking credit - he's been crushing it in plus minus this year and it's not a fluke or just a result of playing next to great players.

Most will agree Bonner is an asset in the regular season. It's the postseason we're concerned about.

TheSkeptic
04-15-2012, 05:44 AM
Most will agree Bonner is an asset in the regular season. It's the postseason we're concerned about.

Exactly chazley. Bonner will win you games during the regular season and I'll give him credit for making his shots and playing his role to perfection. He knows where to be and he tries his best. In fact, we could even credit Pop for giving him a role that maximizes his abilities. That's an achievement.

As therealtruth said the issue is in the playoffs and the fact that the team will seemingly be counting on him to preform like he does in the regular season then. Even at that, if I thought Bonner was playing say 10 minutes a game or was going to be used as a specialist in the post-season there wouldn't be a problem.

I hope it works out but the Spurs have very little room for error as it stands and making a guy who routinely underperforms a crucial part of the rotation doesn't look like a step in the right direction to me. Even if Bonner surprises us all it still wouldn't be a sound strategy with his history imo.

Obviously you can and do have a different opinion.

jiggy_55
04-15-2012, 07:47 AM
Amazing data, thanks timvp.

Darkwaters
04-15-2012, 09:15 AM
We should play Blair/Bonner/Neal all together at the same time.

Defense? Who needs it?

Keepin' it real
04-15-2012, 09:33 AM
If you're trying to prove that statistics are meaningless, or at least misleading, you're doing a great job. Bonner is a malignant cancer who has been killing the Spurs for years. Any "evidence" to the contrary is just plain wrong.

skin
04-15-2012, 10:42 AM
Great writeup.

IMO the way Duncan played the 1st quarter yesterday shows it is possible Splitter-Duncan pairing in the dying minutes of the 4th quarter. That being said, Diaw should start over Blair.

mazerrackham
04-15-2012, 11:00 AM
The Green and Red in these charts should be symmetrical across the middle diagonal. Why is one Parker-Leonard pairing green and the other red, for instance...

Obstructed_View
04-15-2012, 11:10 AM
The Green and Red in these charts should be symmetrical across the middle diagonal. Why is one Parker-Leonard pairing green and the other red, for instance...

The green and red are relative to the individual player. The numbers should be symmetrical, but not the colors. They have the same number, which is higher than Parker's and lower than Leonard's.

Seventyniner
04-15-2012, 01:55 PM
How would a team go about defending a lineup of Neal, Ginobili, Jackson, Bonner and Diaw? If that quintet can survive defensively, it could be the ultimate headache for the opposition.

:drunk

Careful. You're getting dangerously close to Nellie-ball territory. :nope

Aztecfan03
04-15-2012, 02:19 PM
more fuel for the fire
duncan and splitter start together
diaw/bonner second unit with some tiago sprinkled in could handle other second units
blair= amensty

diaw and jack makes sense since the bobcats were the #1 defensive team in the nba 2 years ago with both of them getting about 40+ minutes per game

also do you think diaw could play SF in the second unit
ginobili
neal
diaw
bonner
splitter

unless you are thinking of playing jax or kawhi at PF, that second unit would mean that one of jax, kawhi, or green would be out of the rotation.

timvp
04-15-2012, 02:21 PM
We should play Blair/Bonner/Neal all together at the same time.

Defense? Who needs it?

That threesome gives up 141 points per 100 possessions :lmao

Good guess.

will_spurs
04-16-2012, 04:21 AM
Nice stats, too bad they don't take into account the strength of the opposition (although to be honest I have no idea how they could do that). I'd like for a 3rd color to be included (some shade of grey) when the difference with the average is less than 1 point (or, say, 1%). Right now it's red regardless of whether the score dips by 0.01 or several points. Another way to show that would be to show differentials in all the tables, and not only in the first.

I'd also like to see Parker's value along the years, just to know if he's always been underrated as a defender, or if he's really improved in this area recently.

In case of players with full red on one side and full green on the other side, it's easy to conclude that they are specialized players (Neal on O, Green on D) but that wouldn't be the case for Parker.

My guess why his D numbers are so good, based on watching games: the Spurs tend to go on a run when he's on the floor, which means even if the O isn't stellar, the D has to be flawless. That would definitely improve his numbers in the way we see right now. He's also playing a lot in the clutch when the D tightens up.