Would you prefer a 2-0 or 3-2 lead in a playoff series?

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

I'd personally prefer a 2-0 series lead. First of all, because you get two chances to make it a 3-0 or 3-1 lead, either of which would put a virtual stranglehold on the playoff series.


Secondly, because a 3-2 lead is more fragile than it seems. Yes, you only need to win one to win it all. But should you lose Game 6, it's a 3-3 tie, Game 7 winner-take-all, and you may just have lost your mental edge and come unhinged.

(See the 2010 Boston Celtics and 2011 Texas Rangers as examples of teams that held a 3-2 lead but lost both remaining games to lose it all).

[Barfunk]

Tough to say but went with 2-0 series lead.

Btw, props on your screen name, not many folks who are both Spurs and Mavs fans on here its seems. Spurs fan first of course. :toast

[Rummpd]

It would be interesting to see the stats on this and if they could be done 2-0 home and away. Can some one track them down. If I recall winning game 5 predicts the success of a series at least 75%.

[ffadicted]

I like Coke better

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

Baseball and NBA finals: 2-0 (provided that I'm the team up 3-2 going on the road the last two)



If you say, "Provided I'm the team up 3-2," then isn't that really trying to have your cake and eat it too? Kind of defeats the poll purpose.

[irishock]

Depends on if you have game 7 at home. I'd take 3-2 lead any day if game 7 is at home. You don't lose those games.

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

Tough to say but went with 2-0 series lead.

Btw, props on your screen name, not many folks who are both Spurs and Mavs fans on here its seems. Spurs fan first of course. :toast


Haha, thanks. I'm from Dallas but like the Spurs.

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

Depends on if you have game 7 at home. I'd take 3-2 lead any day if game 7 is at home. You don't lose those games.


True, can't think of the last time an NBA team lost such a series. Then again I'm not an NBA historian type.

[100%duncan]

Against the Lakers, Heat, Bulls 3-2. Anyone else 2-0

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

If I recall winning game 5 predicts the success of a series at least 75%.


Well, if you think of the odds of winning a game to be 50/50 - a coin toss, essentially - then it makes sense.


In order to win a series when trailing 3-2, you must win both of your two remaining games. If the odds of winning a game are fifty percent, then your odds of winning two games in a row are 25%.


Conversely, in order to lose a series in which you hold a 3-2 lead, you must lose both remaining games. Again, assuming you have a fifty percent chance of winning or losing, your odds of losing both games in a row are 25 percent.

[YoMamaIsCallin]

It's logical to prefer 2-0.

If you're up 2-0, you have to win 2 of the next 5 games. If you're up 3-2, you have to win 1 of the next 2. Your odds are better with 2-0, you only have to play .400 ball instead of .500.

Look at it another way, if you are up 2-0 first, then go to 3-2, what happened is you just won one game but lost two. By any measure that's a downgrade of your position in the series.

[capek]

Right, 2-0 is the easy call. 100% record vs 60% record. And everything Yo said.

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

It's logical to prefer 2-0.

If you're up 2-0, you have to win 2 of the next 5 games. If you're up 3-2, you have to win 1 of the next 2. Your odds are better with 2-0, you only have to play .400 ball instead of .500.

Look at it another way, if you are up 2-0 first, then go to 3-2, what happened is you just won one game but lost two. By any measure that's a downgrade of your position in the series.



I agree, but I think the main psychological appeal of a 3-2 series lead is that you now have your opponent on the very brink of elimination. Or, to put it another way, you're just one game away from victory.


A 2-0 lead still leaves you two wins away from victory, and that can feel distant and insecure.

[Mal]

I`d take 3-2. With all pressure on opposite team. They need to win game 6. You have game 7 in minds. Not everyone can handle it.

[TampaDude]

It depends on what round and whether or not you have HCA.

From www.whowins.com:

Leading 2 games to 0:

NBA all all 99-141 (.413) 226-14 (.942)
NBA all H 83-130 (.390) 202-11 (.948)
NBA all V 16-11 (.593) 24-3 (.889)
NBA Finals all 12-19 (.387) 28-3 (.903)
NBA Finals H 10-18 (.357) 25-3 (.893)
NBA Finals V 2-1 (.667) 3-0 (1.000)
NBA Semis all 26-36 (.419) 59-3 (.952)
NBA Semis H 19-31 (.380) 47-3 (.940)
NBA Semis V 7-5 (.583) 12-0 (1.000)
NBA Qtrs all 42-59 (.416) 96-5 (.950)
NBA Qtrs H 35-56 (.385) 88-3 (.967)
NBA Qtrs V 7-3 (.700) 8-2 (.800)
NBA Prelim all 19-27 (.413) 43-3 (.935)
NBA Prelim H 19-25 (.432) 42-2 (.955)
NBA Prelim V 0-2 (.000) 1-1 (.500)

Leading 3 games to 2:

NBA all all 137-107 (.561) 209-35 (.857)
NBA all H 81-77 (.513) 145-13 (.918)
NBA all V 56-30 (.651) 64-22 (.744)
NBA Finals all 25-17 (.595) 35-7 (.833)
NBA Finals H 15-11 (.577) 24-2 (.923)
NBA Finals V 10-6 (.625) 11-5 (.688)
NBA Semis all 38-31 (.551) 56-13 (.812)
NBA Semis H 21-22 (.488) 37-6 (.860)
NBA Semis V 17-9 (.654) 19-7 (.731)
NBA Qtrs all 49-48 (.505) 86-11 (.887)
NBA Qtrs H 31-37 (.456) 64-4 (.941)
NBA Qtrs V 18-11 (.621) 22-7 (.759)
NBA Prelim all 25-11 (.694) 32-4 (.889)
NBA Prelim H 14-7 (.667) 20-1 (.952)
NBA Prelim V 11-4 (.733) 12-3 (.800)

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

I`d take 3-2. With all pressure on opposite team. They need to win game 6. You have game 7 in minds. Not everyone can handle it.


True, If you're trailing 3-2, you're in do-or-die mode which can actually make you play worse - more tense. The other team is more relaxed - they can technically afford to lose one.

[100%duncan]

It really depends on the team you are facing.

[Cow Eye]

I voted 2 - 0 simply based on morale factors. Way too many things to be accounted for, though. Such as the two teams, home court advantage etc.

[mudyez]

two things matter:

(1) homecourt for the remaining games:
- if your the superior team, you have to choose the "3:2" as you will have at least one home out(two in the 2-3-3-system)...a "2:0" would only mean, you protected homecourt(stronger statement in the 2-3-3 as I mentioned).
- if your the inferior team its the other way around: who wouldn't love beening up "2:0" with 3 out of 5 games at home?
(its the same in the 2-3-2 and the 2-2-1-1-1 system, but coz you have 2 home outs as the superior team beeing up "3:2" its even more of a nobrainer)
(2) how much better/weaker is your team than the opponent:
- the more games to be played, the more often the better team will prevail...so if your way inferior, you probably choose the "3:2" and if your way superior you go with the "2:0"

--> as you see both points are on colition course! so if you have hca as a pretty even team its more like point (1)...if there is a huge difference point (2) might be more important

btw.: I think its also importand if you face/are a vets team or a green bunch of rookies. closing out, staying calm in elimination games ect.
I'm just not sure whats more shocking for a young squad: a elimination game or beeing down 0:2

(3) if your the Spurs, you take the "2:0" all the time, as less games are important to stay fit/healthy!!!!

[rascal]

2-0 lead is better. Just have to win 2 of the next 5.

[EVAY]

Tbh, I have always preferred that the games tally read 4-0.