Seeding considerations

[will_spurs]

The Clippers loss yesterday night against Phoenix means they are now one full game late on the Lakers, and since they have the same remaining number of games (3) and the Lakers hold the tiebreaker, it's actually 1.5 games.

The magic number for the Lakers to clinch 3rd seed is therefore 2, which means any combination of 2 wins for the Lakers and/or losses for the Clippers.

The Lakers next games: @SA, OKC, @SAC
The Clippers next games: NO, @ATL, @NYK

The Lakers should at least win against SAC (which should be trying to tank at that point), but that's unless the Lakers purposefully want to tank it to get the 4th seed. The other 2 games are obviously against teams fighting for the 1st spot.

The Clippers have an easier road, except NO managed to beat Houston in OT yesterday (WTF). After that, Atlanta might be tanking to get Indiana instead of Boston (Atlanta is being cockblocked by Boston anyway due to the stupid "Division winner with worse record rule"), and NY, well, is NY.

On the 1st and 2nd seed front, Spurs own the tiebreaker against OKC and OKC has one more loss (and therefore one fewer game to play). If SA wins all their games they are guaranteed HCA against Miami and probably Chicago too (not sure what the tiebreakers are).

The magic number for top seed is 4, any combination of 4 Spurs wins or OKC losses.

OKC next 4 games: @SAC, @LAL, SAC, DEN
SA next 5 games: LAL, CLE, POR, @PHO, @GS

OKC should win twice against SAC, the other 2 games may be tough, as Denver may be positioning for 6th seed.

SA should win against CLE and POR and against GS. We should beat PHO too but since it's at their place and they might still be alive for the playoffs, it won't be easy.

Resting the big 3 tonight is not a bad situation, it helps the Lakers lock the 3rd seed and still means the Spurs are very likely to get the 1st seed in the West. That's pretty much all that's left in the Spurs control at this point.

On the other hand it's unlikely the Clippers don't lose one, but that's obviously out of our control. There's also the aspect that the LAL might want the 3rd seed after all due to better 1st round match-up.

EDIT: Updated to take comments into account. I had wrongly asserted the magic number for 3rd seed was 1, instead of 2. This changes the picture quite a bit.

[Fireball]

Good rundown of possibilities, but I do not share the feeling that the Spurs can control something. And I just do not want to see the Big Three getting rest against the Lakers. Rest them later if the probabilities to control the outcome have increased, but until then try to win every game and stay healthy ...

[will_spurs]

The point is that there aren't more ways down the road to control the seedings, except our own. Tonight the Spurs can control the seeding of 2 other teams.

[Fireball]

Yeah, but since we cannot fully control our own seeding right now, what sense does it make to control the seeding of other teams?

[roycrikside]

The Lakers magic number to get the 3 seed is 2, not 1. Think about it. If they go 1-2 and the Clips finish 3-0, the Clips would finish with a better record.

The Lakers need to either beat OKC (that'd be great for us) or hope that the Clips lose @Atl or @NYK. I don't think the Lakers will be trying to "tank" to the 4th seed because even though they'd probably rather face us than OKC in rd 2, they have to get past rd 1 first and Dallas is a much easier match-up (no Chandler or Barea this time) than Memphis.

[roycrikside]

The Lakers magic number to get the 3 seed is 2, not 1. Think about it. If they go 1-2 and the Clips finish 3-0, the Clips would finish with a better record.

The Lakers need to either beat OKC (that'd be great for us) or hope that the Clips lose @Atl or @NYK. I don't think the Lakers will be trying to "tank" to the 4th seed because even though they'd probably rather face us than OKC in rd 2, they have to get past rd 1 first and Dallas is a much easier match-up (no Chandler or Barea this time) than Memphis.

[Warlord23]

The magic number for the Lakers to clinch 3rd seed is therefore 1, which means any combination of 1 win for the Lakers or 1 loss for the Clippers.

I don't think that's right. The magic number for LAL to get the 3rd seed should be 2.

LAL: 40-23, LAC: 39-24
LAL winning only 1 game out of their 3 will give them a record of 41-25. If LAC wins all 3 of their games, they get to 42-24. However, 2 LAL wins or (1 LAL win + 1 LAC loss) guarantees the 3rd seed to the Lakers.

And that's where the risk is. If the Spurs beat the Lakers tonight, and the Lakers then lose to OKC on Sunday, LAL can drop to #4 if the Clips win out.

[temujin]

Pop might want to rest Ginobili (after all, he had a concussion the other night, right?), but he should try to win this one.
1) They would completely control their own fate as #1. And a first round against Jazz or Suns would be easieer than facing Dallas or Denver.
2) The lakers are unlikely to end up 4 anyway, if anything because they might not want to face the Spurs anytime, having been beaten down twice and weaknesses exposed, and they'd be going against Memphis, which matches up very well against their bigs. It would probably be a long, tough series for them.

[temujin]

I don't think that's right. The magic number for LAL to get the 3rd seed should be 2.

LAL: 40-23, LAC: 39-24
LAL winning only 1 game out of their 3 will give them a record of 41-25. If LAC wins all 3 of their games, they get to 42-24. However, 2 LAL wins or (1 LAL win + 1 LAC loss) guarantees the 3rd seed to the Lakers.

And that's where the risk is. If the Spurs beat the Lakers tonight, and the Lakers then lose to OKC on Sunday, LAL can drop to #4 if the Clips win out.

In that case, Spurs can still lose in Phoenix and send the Toros to GS.

[roycrikside]

Pop might want to rest Ginobili (after all, he had a concussion the other night, right?), but he should try to win this one.
1) They would completely control their own fate as #1. And a first round against Jazz or Suns would be easieer than facing Dallas or Denver.
2) The lakers are unlikely to end up 4 anyway, if anything because they might not want to face the Spurs anytime, having been beaten down twice and weaknesses exposed, and they'd be going against Memphis, which matches up very well against their bigs. It would probably be a long, tough series for them.

where did you read that he had a concussion?

[Warlord23]

In that case, Spurs can still lose in Phoenix and send the Toros to GS.

True, but that would mean losing HCA against OKC if the Spurs meet them in the WCF. The other way of going about it would be to lose vs LAL tonight, virtually assuring the Lakers of the 3rd seed (assuming they win vs the Kings in their last one). Then the Spurs can proceed to win their last 4 (CLE, POR, PHX, GSW) and still maintain the #1 seed by virtue of the tie breaker over OKC. That would leave OKC and LAL at 2 and 3, facing off in the 2nd round.

[temujin]

where did you read that he had a concussion?

I saw it, didn't you?

Concussion, from the Latin concutere ("to shake violently")[1] or the Latin concussus ("action of striking together"),[2] is the most common type of traumatic brain injury. The terms mild brain injury, mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI), mild head injury (MHI), minor head trauma, and concussion may be used interchangeably.
The best-known concussion grading scales count head injuries in which loss of consciousness does not occur to be mild concussions and those in which it does to be more severe.

I think the NBA has even rules on how to behave in case of head traumas. Whether or not there was loss of consciousness.

Even if Manu had no further symptoms, no doctor could argue with the SPurs being cautious on this matter.

[will_spurs]

@royrikside: Manu didn't have a concussion, but that would be an easy excuse, since he was banged up in the last game. Not that Pop needs excuses anyway to do whatever he wants.

@Warlord23: finally somebody understands the whole thing :toast

Losing tonight is still the best way to control our destiny AND avoid injuries.

[temujin]

True, but that would mean losing HCA against OKC if the Spurs meet them in the WCF. The other way of going about it would be to lose vs LAL tonight, virtually assuring the Lakers of the 3rd seed (assuming they win vs the Kings in their last one). Then the Spurs can proceed to win their last 4 (CLE, POR, PHX, GSW) and still maintain the #1 seed by virtue of the tie breaker over OKC. That would leave OKC and LAL at 2 and 3, facing off in the 2nd round.

Correct.
Losing intentionally to the Lakers with a full roster is (i) bad psychologically and (ii) unlikely, the way Spurs have played as of late.
My feeling is that to lose to the Lakers, this team needs to play without a few players.
Parker or Ginobili. And one between Duncan, Splitter or Diaw.
This is up to Pop to decide to sit them.
He certainly has an excuse to sit Manu.

[will_spurs]

LAL @ SAS and LAL @ OKC are actually mirror games. Whichever teams wins or loses, both teams are still moving in the direction of meeting in the 2nd round.

LAL-SAS pushes Spurs to 1 and Lakers to 4 (or conversely Spurs to 2 and Lakers to 3).
LAL-OKC pushes OKC to 1 and Lakers to 4 (or conversely Lakers to 3 and OKC to 2).

Spurs have an advantage insofar as they can tank against Lakers (helping Lakers clinch 3rd) and still be sure to have HCA in the West (and pretty much overall) by winning their last 4 games (ensuring they won't meet OKC or LAL before the WCF).

The Lakers half want the 3rd because it's an easier 1st round matchup; and half don't want it because it pushes them into OKC's arms in the 2nd round (where they'd prefer the Spurs).

OKC doesn't care about 1st or 2nd round matchups, although finishing 1st would open the possibility of an easier 2nd round matchup (I assume they'd rather face LAC or MEM than LAL). What they care the most about is getting 1st to have HCA against Spurs and possibly Miami.

All in all it looks to me that OKC will be a lot more motivated to win against the LAL at home, than the Lakers are in locking 3rd seed.

[temujin]

@royrikside: Manu didn't have a concussion, but that would be an easy excuse, since he was banged up in the last game. Not that Pop needs excuses anyway to do whatever he wants.

@Warlord23: finally somebody understands the whole thing :toast

Losing tonight is still the best way to control our destiny AND avoid injuries.

Losing tonight at full strength will just reinforce the Lakers' idea that the loss last night was nothing, that they didn't have Kobe, and that they should target SA in the second round, hence lose the remaining games to get the 4.

Plus, to lose tonight and NOT have confidence problems, Pop needs to sit a few players.

[Bruno]

The Spurs game @Phoenix could be very difficult to win and easily turn into a loss. I don't think Pop will be fine with playing a high intensity game that close to the playoffs start. It would be way more comfortable for Spurs if they don't have to win thsi game in order to secure the first spot.

Clippers game in Atlanta could be loss. They have won their last 2 games so it doesn't looks like they are tanking to avoid Boston. In fact they might fight hard to get HCA over them.

[100%duncan]

Wow, a really complicated situation here, we could just forfeit tomorrow and win the rest of the games. With that we have an easy first round in Utah/Phx and Clippers in the 2nd. I just think they will beat the Memphis,tbh, I mean they have the young guys and can be a bad match-up nightmare for the Grizz.

[Mel_13]

Maintain your priorities as to rest and rhythm, but play to win the game.

[will_spurs]

Losing tonight at full strength will just reinforce the Lakers' idea that the loss last night was nothing, that they didn't have Kobe, and that they should target SA in the second round, hence lose the remaining games to get the 4.

Plus, to lose tonight and NOT have confidence problems, Pop needs to sit a few players.

Who talked about "full strength". If you are trying to tank, of course you don't come at full strength. Pop can rest the big 3 and be in a win-win situation because of everything I outlined above + if the remaining Spurs players keep it close, this will get into the Lakers head, but if it's a blowout loss we fallback on the "no big 3" excuse.

[buttsR4rebounding]

I believe the Spurs need to go all out to win this game. They need to get the #1 seed because I think whatever team comes out of that 4/5 matchup is going to be beat up. Spurs/Jazz which would be the likely first round then probably goes no more than 5 games. I like that scenario going into the 2nd round. The likely 2/3 matchup then is Lakers/OKC which could be another bloodbath.

[Wild Cobra Kai]

Say you tank/rest tonight, and you wind up facing the Lakers down the road anyway. How bad would that be psychologically?

For the last LAL game, Pop kicked the coaches out of the front of the plane and just talked to T,T, and M. I doubt THEY want to throw this game, so I doubt the Spurs come at this any way other than full strength unless Manu is really hurt.

FEAR THE SPURS

[Legacy]

Maintain your priorities as to rest and rhythm, but play to win the game.



This is my mantra, and it will be drilled into my skull. Now and forever. To say over and over and over and over and over again. Why? Because -- Hi, my username is Legacy, and I am a Bipolar Spurs fan. :lol



YEESH.

[hater]

stop being pussies. all we need to fear are injuries at this point.

[Seventyniner]

Looking at tonight's game from the Lakers' point of view they're going to go all out for several reasons.

1) They like to win
2) Revenge for Tuesday
3) A win makes a 2/3 Spurs/Lakers 2nd round matchup more likely
4) Getting the 3 seed means avoiding the Grizzlies in the first round
5) (if Kobe plays) Kobe always has something to prove

[K-State Spur]

This is getting irrational.

If we sit the big 3 in any games (including tonight's) down the stretch - it will be solely for our own benefit. How it plays out for the Lakers or anybody is pointless to worry about.

Hell - beat the Lakers tonight, they still have a good shot at the 3 seed. But even if they drop to 4, you may not have to worry about them anyways with Memphis matching up well AND playing better bball the second half of the year.

I know that the 2 beat downs at home the Lakers have given us over the past 13 months lead to fear, and they're not an ideal match-up for us under any circumstances. That said, no point in going out of our way to avoid them. If they're playing good bball, we'd have to meet them at some point anyways. And even if we do - over a 7 game series, they have issues with matching up with us along the perimeter that we do matching up with them down low.

They'll also have Kobe back, who (with a career low 52% TS%) is going to take shots away from the down low advantage they have (57% TS% for Gasol/Bynum).

[hater]

why would lakers want to face spurs in 2nd round? IMO they rather wait til WCF. Get Kobe in shape/rhythm, hope for injuries

[Mugen]

A win tonight pretty much guarantees the Spurs the 1st seed because i don't see them going worse than 3-1 in the last 4 games.

Even if the Lakers lose tonight, i still think they finish at the 3rd seed because I think the Clippers go 2-1 to finish the year.

I'd be very happy if the Spurs finish at 1 and the Lakers at 3. But I'd be fine if the Lakers finished at 4 and had to play Memphis in the 1st round. I'm not so sure the Lakers get out of that series and even if they do, it's gonna be extremely physical and could give the Spurs the edge should they meet in Round 2.

Worst case scenario would be the Spurs/Lakers to finish at 2/3.

That said, I'm with Mel regarding tonight and think the Spurs should try their best to maintain rhythm and momentum. If they want to sit one of the Big 3 then I'm for Manu sitting. But I think we should go for the win tonight and like our chances.

[will_spurs]

all we need to fear are injuries at this point.

So what's your plan to avoid that?

[td4mvp21]

The Lakers probably want and are trying for the 3rd seed, so the Spurs need to do what it takes to secure the 1st seed.

[Knoxxx]

I think everyone plays to win this weekend. Things MAY be a bit more clear after that.

[Keepin' it real]

So what's your plan to avoid that?

Live in a bubble.

[rascal]

I don't think that's right. The magic number for LAL to get the 3rd seed should be 2.

LAL: 40-23, LAC: 39-24
LAL winning only 1 game out of their 3 will give them a record of 41-25. If LAC wins all 3 of their games, they get to 42-24. However, 2 LAL wins or (1 LAL win + 1 LAC loss) guarantees the 3rd seed to the Lakers.

And that's where the risk is. If the Spurs beat the Lakers tonight, and the Lakers then lose to OKC on Sunday, LAL can drop to #4 if the Clips win out.

the Clippers are not winning out. The lakers will be the number 3 seed.

[rascal]

If the Lakers are playing well they will beat OK City and then meet up with the Spurs in the WCF anyways. The seeding matters in reaching the WCF but the Spurs may meet up with the Lakers anyways just at a latter time when Kobe is back at full strenght and the Lakers are rolling.

I see OK City as the choke team is this years playoffs. Everyone is thinking they will take out the Lakers but a good chance that does not happen.

[romain.star]

Fuck that.

The Spurs need to stay healthy and mentally/physically fresh comes PO time. Beyond that? Aspciet spartam...

[acoelho1]

We should try to win every game why maintaining rest for our older players. Also, even if the Lakers fell to 4th place, I wouldn't pencil them in just yet to beat Memphis. They have the size to compete against the Lakers and in my opinion, they are a better team overall.

[hater]

So what's your plan to avoid that?

you can't really avoid them alltogether. Luck and precaution, just like driving.

[GSH]

So what's your plan to avoid that?

Mel suggested wrapping Manu in bubble wrap until the playoffs. Frankly, I kind of like it.

[will_spurs]

A friend of mine is a Lakers fan and here is his perspective:


I think it makes no sense that the Lakers would tank to get #4. They WILL limit Kobe's minutes with him just coming back and still not 100%. They also have to get Gasol, who as you said has logged a ton of minutes, some rest. Again, I understand that Hill was hurt earlier but Brown should have been throwing him in for some minutes recently. That aside the Lakers want to be third seed much more than any concern for who they would play in round two. I think LA would prefer to play the Spurs merely because the speed of OKC/Westbrook gives us a little more trouble. However the Spurs also thumped us and the Lakers know the Spurs are a better team too. The three is important because Memphis is a much better team and a tougher match-up for either LA team than either Dallas or Denver. I also think the Lakers are confident enough to think it's possible that they and the Clips stage upsets in round two and meet gives home-court to the three. Pretty unlikely, but they have to think that way. Lastly, the whole Lakers organization does not want the Clippers to finish ahead of them. I am really rooting hard for the #3 to be locked so the Lakers will not have to play all-out in that last Sacto game. The Kings suck but hate the Lakers and will definitely play all-out to be us if something is on the line for us.
I also think it is foolish for the Spurs to tank and lose to the Lakers. They can find some minutes of rest in other games, and your guys aren't that beaten down anyway. If the Spurs lose to the Lakers they increase their chances of dropping to the #2. A potential road situation in the conf. finals seems highly undesirable. Beyond that they'd set the Lakers at #3 for a potential match in round two. We all know, despite the fact that OKC is better than LAL, that the Spurs camp (including fans :) ) has a paranoia about meeting the Lakers. The Clippers did the Spurs a favor last night. Now the Spurs can go for the #1 and beat the Lakers, yet still figure doing so MIGHT not drop the Lakers to #4.

So yeah, win or lose tonight, doesn't really matter, just rest Manu.

[Keepin' it real]

Although so many scenarios could still play out, it does seem somewhat likely at this point that the Spurs will have (for them) an ideal path to the finals:



Utah/Phx.
LAC, who is a bad matchup for the Grizz
OKC, and we're a bad matchup for them.

I think this is the law of averages at work, given the worst possible draw last season.

[sharkenleo]

The way I see it, Lakers beating OKC would be fantastic for us, maybe even better than winning tonight. It gives us a half game advantage over OKC and gives us a little more room to breathe, and almost locks the Lakers into the 3 seed.

Biggest game of the weekend folks, no doubt about it. I will be watching it and rooting HARD for the Lakers.