Hollingers Playoff Odds (20th April)

[DieMrBond]

Hollingers system currently has the Spurs chances of WINNING the finals at a ridiculously high 28.7%, compared to the other top teams such as OKC (19.9%) Chicago (15.4%) Miami (12.5%) and further down the scale New York (4.3%) Boston (3.7%) LAC (2.9%) and LAL (1.9%).

I don't know about you guys, but that seems pretty unrealistic to me, despite how much the Spurs have been clicking and wiping out opponents lately. I know it heavily takes into account the winning differential, but surely thats not the only reason we are rated that high?

What do you think?

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

http://members.iinet.net.au/~kelleher_new/standings.JPG

[100%duncan]

Putting Spurs above Heat is funny, considering they have a smooth trip to the finals. And NY and Celtics over Lakers :lmao

[Bruno]

It's because Hollinger formula give more weights to recent results and Spurs have blown out a lot of opponents lately.

Hollinger power ranking formula is the basic margin of victory that is rectified by 3 factors:
1) Hollinger looks at the quality of the opponent by taking into account the strength of schedule (SOS).
2) Hollinger looks at games played on the road by giving a 3.5 points bonus for these games.
3) Hollinger value more recent games. The first 3/4 of the season weight for 50% of his ranking while the last 1/4 weight for the other half.

Spurs margin of victory in the last 1/4 of their games played is very high (+10.85) and that's why their ranking is so high.

[mountainballer]

Hollinger once overrated the win margin, built a whole universe on that theorie and stubbornly refused to adjust this faktor, when it obviously produced more and more inaccurate results. end of story. it's sad, b/c it more or less makes Hollinger's odds and predictions worthless.

[wildbill2u]

I wonder what odds the guys in Vegas are giving. They are the experts at setting odds.

[Aztecfan03]

a big problem is it has new york, boston, atlanta an indiana each close to 10% chance to go to the finals.

[spursfaninla]

Vegas odds are funny to, actually, because they try to keep betters equally on both sides of the line. So, instead of the odds actually being "accurate," they must instead function to make an equal number of people bet on both sides.

If people over-rate one team's strength, the way to get more people to bet against them is to make the odds worse for them; i.e., give you less return for betting on them. Thus, I don't actually put stock in the vegas odds accuracy in charting anything other than the current popular sentiment as to the strength of the teams.

[mathbzh]

Hollinger rankings are based on how well the Spurs have done against playoff teams as well and the average margin of victory, which has been substanial. Let's see, blewout Lakers, Blewout Dallas, Belowout Suns, manhandled Grizzs, etc.

In the past 20 games the Spurs are 10-2 against teams currently seeded in the playoffs, best in the NBA.

Where did you read that he is considering how well teams do against playoffs team?
I see nothing there
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=playoffpredictor-081119

[GSH]

It's because Hollinger formula give more weights to recent results and Spurs have blown out a lot of opponents lately.

Hollinger power ranking formula is the basic margin of victory that is rectified by 3 factors:
1) Hollinger looks at the quality of the opponent by taking into account the strength of schedule (SOS).
2) Hollinger looks at games played on the road by giving a 3.5 points bonus for these games.
3) Hollinger value more recent games. The first 3/4 of the season weight for 50% of his ranking while the last 1/4 weight for the other half.

Spurs margin of victory in the last 1/4 of their games played is very high (+10.85) and that's why their ranking is so high.


It's not just the power rankings. The chance of winning a championship also has to do with the chance to get to the finals. If you don't get there, you can't win it. The reason he rates Miami and Chicago so low to win it all is because there are more teams in the East that he thinks could knock one of those two teams off, and prevent them from even reaching the Finals.

In rough numbers, Hollinger has the Spurs as almost 50/50 to win the West, and slightly higher than 50/50 to win the finals, if they do get there. And he has OKC with about a 32% chance to win the West, and about a 63% chance to beat their Eastern opponent in the finals, if they make it there.

Note that he gives Indiana about a 9% chance of winning the East, but only about a 3% chance of winning it all. That means that he thinks Indiana would only have about a 1-in-3 chance of beating whichever team wins the West.

[dylankerouac]

I'll see how we're playing at the end of the first round before looking at any predictions tbh. These odds can't take into account, among many other things, adjustments by teams in the playoffs.

We also have major questions like will the Spurs brand of basketball kill them in the playoffs? Minutes for starters are expected to increase, that changes our picture if starters get tired and produce less with more minutes.

[Venti Quattro]

Hollinger's stats are good to look at but have no bearing whatsoever in the big picture.

[Splits]

I wonder what odds the guys in Vegas are giving. They are the experts at setting odds.

Spurs are 7-1 to win the chip and 2.75-1 to win the WCF.

[Splits]

^ and to give some context, to win it all:

Miami 2-1
Chicago 3-1
OKC 3-1
Lakers 10-1
Celts 18-1

[jestersmash]

Hollinger once overrated the win margin, built a whole universe on that theorie and stubbornly refused to adjust this faktor, when it obviously produced more and more inaccurate results. end of story. it's sad, b/c it more or less makes Hollinger's odds and predictions worthless.

:lmao

How on earth did this knucklehead get All-SpursTalk 2nd team?

This is objectively the most ridiculous post I've read all day.

[Jimcs50]

I like my $100 to win $400 bet that I made two months ago for them to win West and I really like my 10-1 bet that I made for them to win it all.

I could probably sell those bets for $300 right now.:toast

[SA210]

I like my $100 to win $400 bet that I made two months ago for them to win West and I really like my 10-1 bet that I made for them to win it all.

I could probably sell those bets for $300 right now.:toast

Where is a site where we can place bets?

[Splits]

I like my $100 to win $400 bet that I made two months ago for them to win West and I really like my 10-1 bet that I made for them to win it all.

I could probably sell those bets for $300 right now.:toast

I've got $150 at 6-1 as wcf champs and $300 at 15-1 for the chip :hat

Of course, I placed those not long after they picked up Jack and Diaw. Not sure where you got such bad odds 2 months ago!?

[pgardn]

:lmao

How on earth did this knucklehead get All-SpursTalk 2nd team?

This is objectively the most ridiculous post I've read all day.

What? There is some Spurs Talk rating system?

May I sell you some stock in the Hollinger rating system.

Good God...

I happen to agree with your post, but to think some board rating system means anything... Exactly who is the knucklehead?

[pgardn]

Vegas odds are funny to, actually, because they try to keep betters equally on both sides of the line. So, instead of the odds actually being "accurate," they must instead function to make an equal number of people bet on both sides.

If people over-rate one team's strength, the way to get more people to bet against them is to make the odds worse for them; i.e., give you less return for betting on them. Thus, I don't actually put stock in the vegas odds accuracy in charting anything other than the current popular sentiment as to the strength of the teams.

Hope the Spurs get crushed tonight. Wait a bit...

The above is only partially true. The whales will come in and gather up the casual fan's hometown bias. And thats LA, NY, and Chicago. Put Miami in there as well for the entire east coast.

[pgardn]

^ and to give some context, to win it all:

Miami 2-1
Chicago 3-1
OKC 3-1
Lakers 10-1
Celts 18-1

Miami Heat 2.10 to 1
Oklahoma City Thunder 3.50 to 1
Chicago Bulls 3.75 to 1
San Antonio Spurs 6.50 to 1
Los Angeles Lakers 14 to 1
Boston Celtics 20 to 1
Los Angeles Clippers 25 to 1
Memphis Grizzlies 25 to 1
Dallas Mavericks 35 to 1
New York Knicks 40 to 1

from one sports book as of April 18

pretty close...

[pgardn]

Where is a site where we can place bets?

If you live in Texas it is illegal online

Most likely they will not come and get you, just the site that accepts your wager online.

[DieMrBond]

^ and to give some context, to win it all:

Miami 2-1
Chicago 3-1
OKC 3-1
Lakers 10-1
Celts 18-1

Those odds make a HEAP more sense than us having a better chance than everyone else... Vegas certainly seem to have a better handle. I wouldn't rate our chances better than Miami, Chicago or OKC ... yet.