Adjusted Player Pairs - Apr. 20

[timvp]

In this update, I'm only using games since Jan. 30. The sample size is 40 games in which the Spurs have gone 33-7. I included all minutes except for when Thomas, Dawson or Dentmon were on the court. A green cell means that the player in the column improved the number for the player in the row. A red cell means the opposite. So basically, the more green in a player's column, the better.



Point Differential Per 100 Possessions
http://www.dailyelements.com/pp5-1.jpg


Points Scored Per 100 Possessions
http://www.dailyelements.com/pp5-2.jpg


Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions
http://www.dailyelements.com/pp5-3.jpg


Minutes Played
http://www.dailyelements.com/pp5-4.jpg



Observations:

-Hold onto your hats before taking a look at what Duncan and Splitter have done next to each other in the last 40 games. The scoring is still a bit underwhelming but the defense ... wow. 68.25 points per 100 possessions is ridiculous, even though the sample size is small. Speaking of the sample size, as you can see Pop has played Duncan and Splitter together for fewer than 32.3 minutes in the last 40 games. Less than a minute per game? Let's hope Pop knows what he's doing, especially since the defensive numbers are so great.

-Overall, Tim Duncan's numbers look a lot better using this set of games rather than the whole season. That in itself tells us that he was unusually bad to begin the season, which was pretty obvious to anyone who was watching. Defensively, he's been really, really strong. Offensively, Duncan has a lot of red but most of the numbers are in the ballpark.

-The other player who looks much better when looking at this time frame is Kawhi Leonard. His numbers offensively are great, especially considering he spends so many of his minutes next to Blair and/or Green. He's not a playmaker so you wouldn't expect him to make so many of his teammates better on the offensive end ... but it appears as if his efficiency has the same effect. Defensively, Leonard is very good as long as he has Duncan behind him.

-It's pretty amazing that Manu Ginobili's numbers are so good considering that this stretch of games eliminates his hot start to the season from the equation. Offensively, Ginobili is otherworldly. His offense is so good in fact that it almost doesn't matter that his defensive numbers are the worst on the team.

-The only player Tony Parker doesn't make better is Duncan ... and even that is slight. Offensively, he's pretty strong considering he plays so much with Blair and Green. Defensively, he's pretty close to Duncan.

-Ginobili and Parker being so great next to each other bodes well for the playoffs.

-Danny Green is surprisingly a really weak offensive player. I wouldn't suspect that since he's a good shooter and a pretty good passer. Defensively, he's really good -- especially when you keep him away from Neal and Blair.

-Overall, Gary Neal looks like a useful player as long as you keep him next to Duncan, Parker or Splitter. Duncan is able to hide Neal's defensive shortcomings. Next to Parker, he's apparently very capable of defending shooting guards. Neal seems to have good chemistry with Splitter and that shines through here.

-DeJuan Blair being a liability on offense isn't a surprise. But what is shocking is that he has actually been good on defense when next to Duncan. Really good. That's extra shocking because his minutes next to Duncan are usually spent defending starters ... so there aren't many cheap minutes involved. Blair's defense doesn't become exploitable until he's playing with the reserves.

-As long as you keep Matt Bonner away from Blair, you can't find much fault with The King. He's the best offensive player next to Ginobili and decent on defense. However, it should be noted that Bonner hasn't been helping Duncan's defense. In fact, Bonner is well behind Blair and everyone not named Ginobili (and Diaw, if you count him) in terms of helping Duncan.

-Tiago Splitter's offensive numbers are strong. That's logical. But why are his defensive numbers so weak? The only players with weaker defensive numbers overall are Ginobili and Neal. Just judging by these numbers, you'd think he has a lot of trouble protecting the rim because his numbers are bad with those who allow penetration and decent to good with those who excel at cutting off penetration. Hmmmm...

-Boris Diaw and Stephen Jackson have both been positive additions. Diaw makes the offense better, which makes sense since that's why he was added to the team. Jackson's defense is strong, especially when paired with other strong defenders.

[Juan]

Lol stirring the pot when it comes to Tim and Tiago when the sample size is retarded low.

[Libri]

According to those graphs, if the Spurs are down then we should expect a pairing of Bonner or Diaw with Ginobili.

[z0sa]

LOL I don't know what to think of Blair's numbers.

[TimmehC]

Jack is one tough SOB.

[Blake]

The only number possible to use when pairing Bonner with Bonner is ∞

[spursfaninla]

According to this, Bonner and Diaw have a bigger impact (+/-) than Duncan and Splitter; the latter two are about tied for 3rd and 4th among the bigmen. That is just weird.

For the guards, Manu and tony getting minutes is obvious, but the real question is whether to give more or less minutes to green and neal. They have opposite strengths.

SJax and Leonard effect the game approximately the same, though with opposite strengths as well.

[timvp]

Lol stirring the pot when it comes to Tim and Tiago when the sample size is retarded low.

Tbh, I'm not sure what's more noteworthy in the last 40 games, the fact that teams can't score on that duo or that Pop is playing them an average of 48.5 seconds per game.

[Seventyniner]

I always laugh when I see Bonner called "The King."

Aren't nearly all of the numbers going to look really good when you're talking about a 33-7 stretch with what's probably a pretty high point differential?

Have Diaw and Jax been with the team long enough to have their numbers be statistically significant? In a similar vein, how do the numbers look if you only count games after those 2 joined the team?

[will_spurs]

According to this, Bonner and Diaw have a bigger impact (+/-) than Duncan and Splitter; the latter two are about tied for 3rd and 4th among the bigmen. That is just weird.

Remember these are raw stats, and don't take into account strength of opposition. Bonner and Diaw tend to play against the opponent bench.

[Dex]

Tbh, I'm not sure what's more noteworthy in the last 40 games, the fact that teams can't score on that duo or that Pop is playing them an average of 48.5 seconds per game.

Further evidence that Pop is more focused on offense than defense these days. He's not looking at the 68.25 Points Allowed...he's just looking at the 106.56 Points Scored.

Still, you'd think that Point Differential would be enough to convince him. That 38.30 is second only to the 41.27 posted when Bonner and Diaw are stretching the floor to kingdom-come. :lol

Really, though, I think Pop's main reasoning for not starting Splitter with Duncan is his preference to keep a legitimate big on the floor at all times, which is extremely hard to do if both start and even further extrapolated if one gets into foul trouble. I slightly agree with this theory there...although now that we have Diaw in the mix, I feel like he could help to fill that "big" gap coming off the bench along with Bonner or Blair.

He could, at the very least, start Diaw next to Duncan, so we'd have a more legitimate big to start the games, and also another shooter to spread the floor with Duncan. Win/win.

[GSH]

-Hold onto your hats before taking a look at what Duncan and Splitter have done next to each other in the last 40 games. The scoring is still a bit underwhelming but the defense ... wow. 68.25 points per 100 possessions is ridiculous, even though the sample size is small. Speaking of the sample size, as you can see Pop has played Duncan and Splitter together for fewer than 32.3 minutes in the last 40 games. Less than a minute per game? Let's hope Pop knows what he's doing, especially since the defensive numbers are so great.



Defense? We don't need no steenking defense.

Seriously, you have to wonder if Pop really is focusing on the combos that provide the best offense, and just outscoring everyone. Maybe Pop has just decided that this isn't a defensive team, and the reason we aren't seeing Tim/Tiago is simply because of the lack of offense? I know that concept is having a hard time sinking into my brain, but it fits the facts as well as most theories.



Further evidence that Pop is more focused on offense than defense these days. He's not looking at the 68.25 Points Allowed...he's just looking at the 106.56 Points Scored.

Still, you'd think that Point Differential would be enough to convince him. That 38.30 is second only to the 41.27 posted when Bonner and Diaw are stretching the floor to kingdom-come. :lol


Heh... you snuck that in on top of me while I was writing. Yeah, I almost need something like electro-shock to re-program my brain to think like that. It's hard to even imagine Pop not obsessing on the defense.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Have you put any thought into making differentials that are really close like +/- .5 or something and make those white or yellow. if a guy only changes another's performance that insignificantly I think that would be more telling than giving them red or green. You see that here and there especially with Green and Leonard from just a brief look at the numbers themselves.

[Blake]

If I'm reading it right, it looks to me the best offensive trio on the team is Splitter, Manu, and Bonner?

Best defensive trio: Parker, Duncan, ....... and Neal?

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Green has been groomed for this playoff run.

If his three pointer is falling, Daniel Green is going to make himself some MONEY this summer

[spursfaninla]

Have you put any thought into making differentials that are really close like +/- .5 or something and make those white or yellow. if a guy only changes another's performance that insignificantly I think that would be more telling than giving them red or green. You see that here and there especially with Green and Leonard from just a brief look at the numbers themselves.

Seconded. I end up doing a quick check on many reds for this reason, but it would be generally helpful.

[dylankerouac]

Thanks for the analysis. This team is looking good!

[dylankerouac]

Green has been groomed for this playoff run.

If his three pointer is falling, Daniel Green is going to make himself some MONEY this summer

I hope Green stays. With the way this team is built he could help be part of a b2b and while doing it can become a much better, well rounded basketball player with San Antonio. Imagine how dangerous he will be once he gets his offense in line with his defense.

While here, his stock can continue to improve and he can aim for a bigger contract from another team once the TD/Manu and Tony trifecta is at its end stages or even from SA depending on what direction they are leaning on. What better players are there to continue to learn from; I can't imagine a team that wouldn't want him if he continued to perfect his game here.

[coyotes_geek]

Tbh, I'm not sure what's more noteworthy in the last 40 games, the fact that teams can't score on that duo or that Pop is playing them an average of 48.5 seconds per game.

In fairness to Pop, when you remove the 11 games during that stretch that either Duncan or Splitter didn't play, Pop is giving them an average of 66.8 seconds per game. :p:

[DPG21920]

Mind blowing defensive numbers from TnT. It will be interesting to see if Pop goes TnT tonight for the LA match up. Small sample size yes, but definitely worth more exploration from Pop. I know it doesn't make much sense, but I have a feeling in the playoffs, in fourth quarters we will see more TnT.

[Blake]

-Tiago Splitter's offensive numbers are strong. That's logical. But why are his defensive numbers so weak? The only players with weaker defensive numbers overall are Ginobili and Neal. Just judging by these numbers, you'd think he has a lot of trouble protecting the rim because his numbers are bad with those who allow penetration and decent to good with those who excel at cutting off penetration. Hmmmm...

[DAF86]

:lol Manu's offensive numbers are ridiculous.

[ElNono]

In other words, team leader Ginobili rocks... I thought so. :wakeup

[TheSkeptic]

Further evidence that Pop is more focused on offense than defense these days. He's not looking at the 68.25 Points Allowed...he's just looking at the 106.56 Points Scored.

Still, you'd think that Point Differential would be enough to convince him. That 38.30 is second only to the 41.27 posted when Bonner and Diaw are stretching the floor to kingdom-come. :lol

Really, though, I think Pop's main reasoning for not starting Splitter with Duncan is his preference to keep a legitimate big on the floor at all times, which is extremely hard to do if both start and even further extrapolated if one gets into foul trouble. I slightly agree with this theory there...although now that we have Diaw in the mix, I feel like he could help to fill that "big" gap coming off the bench along with Bonner or Blair.

He could, at the very least, start Diaw next to Duncan, so we'd have a more legitimate big to start the games, and also another shooter to spread the floor with Duncan. Win/win.

This is more or less how I see it. But I have to say, after the embarrassing LAL loss from last time it looks like I've liked Pop's calls a lot better. I've just liked his rotations, the fact that he matched size with size last time, and his defensive game-planning a lot more since then.

I mean, he probably still is putting offense ahead of defense but I think he's been more balanced as of late and the last LAL game showed that he's willing to make adjustments. I'd still prefer to let the "Twin Towers" style frontcourt start and so on but I can live with what we've been seeing these past few games.

Thanks as always Timvp :toast

[therealtruth]

Start with Tim and Tiago to set a defensive tone. If Pop's worried about the offense I think the easiest way to remedy that is to start Manu. Bring Diaw and Bonner of the bench.

[timvp]

But why are his defensive numbers so weak?

After thinking about it, I think the answer is simple: Everybody gets to play minutes next to Duncan other than Splitter. Duncan, even at this age, makes everyone seem like a better defender. Splitter doesn't get that luxury though.

[DAF86]

I'm surprised at all that red in Neal's offensive numbers.