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04-25-2012, 12:15 PM
Who deserves top honors? (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story?page=PERDiem-120425)
The picks for All-NBA teams and individual awards (PER Diem: April 25, 2012)
Yep, it's awards time again. But this year there's a bit of a twist, because there is virtually no controversy about any of the major awards, save for the can-we-kill-this-thing-already foolishness of the Most Improved trophy. Rather than contriving a tortured case for some out-of-left field candidate for one of the major awards (although "Mozgov for MVP" tempts me), we're gonna take this in a very different direction.
Because there is some controversy about a different distinction that's also a kinda-sorta award vote: the spots on the All-NBA team. And sorting out this team sort of gets to the crux of the issue behind most award choices -- namely, who was better than whom this season.
I've seen several variations of people's choices already on the Interwebs, and no two appear the same. While I don't have a real award ballot (my voting privileges this year were limited to the crucial rookie-sophomore and All-Star Game MVPs), it's high time to chime in with some analytics and a hefty dose of subjective opinion on the top 15 players in the league this season.
Also, keep in mind that in forming this team, I'm using a different definition of positions than the league usually uses. Every team plays the same way: one point guard, two wings and two bigs. It's silliness to choose an All-Star or All-NBA lineup any differently, even though the league still insists on "two guards, two forwards, one center" for teams like this.
So here we go:
All-NBA first team
Point guard: Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers
Wing: LeBron James, Miami
Wing: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
Big: Kevin Love, Minnesota
Big: Andrew Bynum, L.A. Lakers
The two wing positions are so obvious that I won't spend much time on them: LeBron and KD will likely be two of the first three names on every MVP ballot. You can argue for Kobe Bryant or Dwyane Wade, but you won't get very far -- they've been both less productive and less durable than LeBron and Durant.
Point guard is more interesting. There's been a surge of interest in Tony Parker, largely because the basketball media just can't handle the idea of an ensemble cast winning a ton of games. San Antonio has three stars and a bunch of good players around them; I'm not sure why it shocks people that they could win this way. But somehow everybody thinks it could only happen if Parker became a superduperstar. Alas, San Antonio's success doesn't make Parker better than Chris Paul, who has both galvanized the Clippers under his leadership and ranks second in the NBA in PER (player efficiency rating, my rating of a player's per-minute effectiveness).
My choice for the first big man is Love, who was having a dominant season before he was knocked out for the final few games and could have come back if it had been important to the Timberwolves. Even with all the missed time, he's still fourth behind the three players above in EWA (estimated wins added, which is essentially my player efficiency rating multiplied by minutes to estimate overall value) this season and has single-handedly launched the lowly Wolves to respectability.
Whether you chose Andrew Bynum or Dwight Howard as your second big man largely depends on which brand of immaturity rankled you more. Bynum's errors, however, were largely borne out of competitiveness; Howard's at times seemed to come from a place of sheer apathy. I freely admit that on sheer per-minute productivity Howard was the superior player, but it's hard for me to give a first-team All-NBA nod to a guy who was clearly uncommitted to his team and trying to backstab the coach.
All-NBA second team
Point guard: Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City
Wing: Dwyane Wade, Miami
Wing: Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers
Big: Blake Griffin, L.A. Clippers
Big: Dwight Howard, Orlando
Again, the sympathies for Tony Parker and Steve Nash are mostly "story" votes; Westbrook outranks both in PER and has been a total ironman, playing every game and for nearly 36 minutes a contest. Derrick Rose is the other contender here, and would be an easy call if he'd been healthy all season. Alas, he simply hasn't played enough games -- his 8.2 EWA, for instance, only ranks 37th in the league even though he has a top-10 PER.
On the wings, we again have very little to debate. Kobe and Wade are pretty clearly No. 3 and No. 4 in the worldwide wingman rankings, with a giant chasm separating them from whomever might be fifth. Wade in particular has had another Hall of Fame season between the injuries; this is his fourth straight season with a PER above 25 and sixth in the past seven. Wade and LeBron are the only two active players with six such seasons; Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett (5), Dirk Nowitzki (4) and Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul (3) round out the list.
Up front, I went with the dynamic duo of Griffin and Howard. Both may be frustrating, but ultimately their talent and durability still made them more valuable than anyone else we could name. And it wasn't just racking up stats -- both Griffin and Howard had impressive plus-minus numbers, suggesting their impact went far beyond just piling up points and rebounds. Howard was sixth in PER; Griffin was 10th while playing every game. While their flaws prevent them from ranking with the creme de la creme, they deserve second-team status.
All-NBA third team
Point guard: Tony Parker, San Antonio
Wing: James Harden, Oklahoma City
Wing: Paul Pierce, Boston
Big: Pau Gasol, L.A. Lakers
Big: Al Jefferson, Utah
And now we get to Parker at the point. While he falls short of Westbrook and CP, he's pretty easily been the league's third-best point guard this season -- again, once we account for Rose missing half the season. He was one of only three point guards to have a double-digit EWA (I suppose you can guess the other two), and the Spurs' record obviously speaks well for his contributions. Additionally, Parker had strong plus-minus numbers despite his team having a very strong bench.
The toughest choices were on the wings, if only because we didn't have any candidates to bowl us over after the top four players. Carmelo Anthony might merit a vote except that this award is for the entire season, including the half during which he quit on his first coach; and Manu Ginobili only played half a season. Normally those would be the two choices, but they've made our decision tougher. Additionally, Rudy Gay had a tough season, and Danny Granger is more a case of voting for the team than the player.
So I landed on Harden and Pierce. Harden was the easier call, thriving in a sixth-man role in Oklahoma City while arguably being the team's second-best player. The Thunder play dramatically better with him on the court -- he's second in the NBA in adjusted plus-minus -- and his EWA, despite limited minutes, was the best of any wing player remaining. Throw in the Thunder's success and this was an easy call.
The tougher call was between Pierce and Andre Iguodala for the final spot. I wanted to reward Iggy's defense, but Pierce is a pretty fine defender in his own right, and his offensive contributions were substantially better. In fact his EWA was only a hair behind Anthony's (9.8 and 9.4), and given the defensive disparity between those two it was clear Pierce deserved the nod.
Now for the frontcourt. Pau Gasol was an easy call for the next big man on the list. He's played consistently effective basketball under a huge minutes load, playing every game at 37.4 minutes per clip, and done so despite rarely getting post touches so Bynum could thrive on the block. He has the best plus-minus on the Lakers and his adjusted plus-minus ranks 12th in the league. You'd be hard-pressed to name a more versatile big man.
Now for the final cut … I agonized between Chandler and Kevin Garnett as my final big, but finally went in a different direction and picked Jefferson. It's not clear that his offense out-values the defense of Chandler or Garnett, but he put the Jazz on his back in their playoff drive, and defensively I'll offer the faint praise that he was better than usual. Supporting that point of view, his adjusted plus-minus numbers this year were outstanding.
What's amazing is how many good bigs didn't make the cut. While we had exactly three elite point guard seasons and were scrounging for wings to fill out our team, Chandler, Garnett, LaMarcus Aldridge, Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Smith, Marc Gasol and Paul Millsap all had compelling cases to be in this frontcourt.
So if I get a "fourth team," I'll fill it all with bigs: Garnett, Chandler, Nowitzki, Aldridge and Smith.
MVP
1. LeBron James, Miami
2. Chris Paul, Clippers
3. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
4. Kevin Love, Minnesota
5. Blake Griffin, Clippers
This covers most of the ground we took on above, but let me just chime in with the thought that Paul was clearly more valuable than Durant, both on and off the court. Ultimately, however, this race is between LeBron James and people's desire to vote for somebody other than James.
The oft-heard mantra is that every other three-time MVP won a championship; what people forget is that not all had a title before they had the third MVP; twice a player has been awarded a third MVP before he had a first ring. Wilt Chamberlain won his third MVP in the spring of 1967 and his first ring a month later, and Moses Malone did the same thing in 1983. James may follow a similar pattern.
Sixth Man
1. James Harden, Oklahoma City
2. Taj Gibson, Chicago
3. (tie) Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams, Philadelphia
Harden is a no-brainer to win, but the guy everybody is sleeping on is Gibson because he's not a scorer. He is, however, a defensive monster who leads the entire NBA in adjusted plus-minus, and he's not a stiff on offense -- his PER this year is a healthy 16.77. I chickened out a bit on third place, but it's really the Young-Williams combo that makes Philly's bench so potent as opposed to just one or the other.
Most Improved Player
1. Ersan Ilyasova, Milwaukee
2. DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento
3. Jeremy Lin, New York
I've always hated this award because the connotation is "We expected you to really suck this year." But if we must … Lin would be the hands-down winner if he had played all season, but he didn't, and we can't just assume he would have played lights-out for 30 more games. Ditto for Minnesota's Nikola Pekovic, another strong contender here.
I also discount those two and Cousins because they're second-year players; we expect progress from the likes of them, as well as the likes of Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors in Utah.
What Ilyasova did, however, was truly different. He emerged from obscurity in his fourth pro season (or sixth, if you include his two-year hiatus overseas) to post a 20.58 PER -- up from 14.40 a year earlier -- and kept Milwaukee in the playoff race. Ilyasova was sort of a poor man's Kevin Love, shooting 45.5 percent on 3s while averaging 12.8 boards per 40 minutes, including a 29-point, 25-board eruption against New Jersey.
Defensive Player of the Year
1. Tyson Chandler, New York
2. Kevin Garnett, Boston
3. Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia
I've made my case for Chandler already, although Garnett's beastly finish to the season certainly warrants attention.
The other interesting discussion item here is shot-blocking leader Serge Ibaka. A lot of people have him on their DPOY ballots, but in my mind he's nowhere close. He blocks a lot of shots but it's difficult to make a case for him when the Thunder's defense shows no great variation whether he's in or out of the game. While he blocks a lot of shots, his fundamentals against pick-and-rolls and perimeter 4s remain raw. Please reference Game 1 of the 2011 Western Conference finals, for instance.
Coach of the Year
1. Gregg Popovich, San Antonio
2. Tom Thibodeau, Chicago
3. Monty Williams, New Orleans
It's a two-horse race at the top followed by several worthy contestants for third; you could quibble between Pops and Thibs but they should be the top two on every ballot. I listed Williams third because of how hard the Hornets played even in a hopeless situation; one could just as easily have put Dwane Casey, Lionel Hollins, Larry Drew, Doc Rivers, Mike Woodson, Stan Van Gundy, Rick Carlisle, Alvin Gentry or Tyrone Corbin in that position.
Rookie of the Year
1. Kyrie Irving, Cleveland
2. Kenneth Faried, Denver
3. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio
Isaiah Thomas was amazing, especially considering he was the 60th pick, but I can't seriously put him ahead of guys making two-way contributions as starters on playoff teams; Faried outranked Thomas in EWA anyway and Leonard wasn't far behind. My last two spots on an all-rookie team would go to Thomas and Minnesota's Ricky Rubio, whose passing drew oohs and ahhs but whose real impact was as a defensive maestro.
The picks for All-NBA teams and individual awards (PER Diem: April 25, 2012)
Yep, it's awards time again. But this year there's a bit of a twist, because there is virtually no controversy about any of the major awards, save for the can-we-kill-this-thing-already foolishness of the Most Improved trophy. Rather than contriving a tortured case for some out-of-left field candidate for one of the major awards (although "Mozgov for MVP" tempts me), we're gonna take this in a very different direction.
Because there is some controversy about a different distinction that's also a kinda-sorta award vote: the spots on the All-NBA team. And sorting out this team sort of gets to the crux of the issue behind most award choices -- namely, who was better than whom this season.
I've seen several variations of people's choices already on the Interwebs, and no two appear the same. While I don't have a real award ballot (my voting privileges this year were limited to the crucial rookie-sophomore and All-Star Game MVPs), it's high time to chime in with some analytics and a hefty dose of subjective opinion on the top 15 players in the league this season.
Also, keep in mind that in forming this team, I'm using a different definition of positions than the league usually uses. Every team plays the same way: one point guard, two wings and two bigs. It's silliness to choose an All-Star or All-NBA lineup any differently, even though the league still insists on "two guards, two forwards, one center" for teams like this.
So here we go:
All-NBA first team
Point guard: Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers
Wing: LeBron James, Miami
Wing: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
Big: Kevin Love, Minnesota
Big: Andrew Bynum, L.A. Lakers
The two wing positions are so obvious that I won't spend much time on them: LeBron and KD will likely be two of the first three names on every MVP ballot. You can argue for Kobe Bryant or Dwyane Wade, but you won't get very far -- they've been both less productive and less durable than LeBron and Durant.
Point guard is more interesting. There's been a surge of interest in Tony Parker, largely because the basketball media just can't handle the idea of an ensemble cast winning a ton of games. San Antonio has three stars and a bunch of good players around them; I'm not sure why it shocks people that they could win this way. But somehow everybody thinks it could only happen if Parker became a superduperstar. Alas, San Antonio's success doesn't make Parker better than Chris Paul, who has both galvanized the Clippers under his leadership and ranks second in the NBA in PER (player efficiency rating, my rating of a player's per-minute effectiveness).
My choice for the first big man is Love, who was having a dominant season before he was knocked out for the final few games and could have come back if it had been important to the Timberwolves. Even with all the missed time, he's still fourth behind the three players above in EWA (estimated wins added, which is essentially my player efficiency rating multiplied by minutes to estimate overall value) this season and has single-handedly launched the lowly Wolves to respectability.
Whether you chose Andrew Bynum or Dwight Howard as your second big man largely depends on which brand of immaturity rankled you more. Bynum's errors, however, were largely borne out of competitiveness; Howard's at times seemed to come from a place of sheer apathy. I freely admit that on sheer per-minute productivity Howard was the superior player, but it's hard for me to give a first-team All-NBA nod to a guy who was clearly uncommitted to his team and trying to backstab the coach.
All-NBA second team
Point guard: Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City
Wing: Dwyane Wade, Miami
Wing: Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers
Big: Blake Griffin, L.A. Clippers
Big: Dwight Howard, Orlando
Again, the sympathies for Tony Parker and Steve Nash are mostly "story" votes; Westbrook outranks both in PER and has been a total ironman, playing every game and for nearly 36 minutes a contest. Derrick Rose is the other contender here, and would be an easy call if he'd been healthy all season. Alas, he simply hasn't played enough games -- his 8.2 EWA, for instance, only ranks 37th in the league even though he has a top-10 PER.
On the wings, we again have very little to debate. Kobe and Wade are pretty clearly No. 3 and No. 4 in the worldwide wingman rankings, with a giant chasm separating them from whomever might be fifth. Wade in particular has had another Hall of Fame season between the injuries; this is his fourth straight season with a PER above 25 and sixth in the past seven. Wade and LeBron are the only two active players with six such seasons; Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett (5), Dirk Nowitzki (4) and Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul (3) round out the list.
Up front, I went with the dynamic duo of Griffin and Howard. Both may be frustrating, but ultimately their talent and durability still made them more valuable than anyone else we could name. And it wasn't just racking up stats -- both Griffin and Howard had impressive plus-minus numbers, suggesting their impact went far beyond just piling up points and rebounds. Howard was sixth in PER; Griffin was 10th while playing every game. While their flaws prevent them from ranking with the creme de la creme, they deserve second-team status.
All-NBA third team
Point guard: Tony Parker, San Antonio
Wing: James Harden, Oklahoma City
Wing: Paul Pierce, Boston
Big: Pau Gasol, L.A. Lakers
Big: Al Jefferson, Utah
And now we get to Parker at the point. While he falls short of Westbrook and CP, he's pretty easily been the league's third-best point guard this season -- again, once we account for Rose missing half the season. He was one of only three point guards to have a double-digit EWA (I suppose you can guess the other two), and the Spurs' record obviously speaks well for his contributions. Additionally, Parker had strong plus-minus numbers despite his team having a very strong bench.
The toughest choices were on the wings, if only because we didn't have any candidates to bowl us over after the top four players. Carmelo Anthony might merit a vote except that this award is for the entire season, including the half during which he quit on his first coach; and Manu Ginobili only played half a season. Normally those would be the two choices, but they've made our decision tougher. Additionally, Rudy Gay had a tough season, and Danny Granger is more a case of voting for the team than the player.
So I landed on Harden and Pierce. Harden was the easier call, thriving in a sixth-man role in Oklahoma City while arguably being the team's second-best player. The Thunder play dramatically better with him on the court -- he's second in the NBA in adjusted plus-minus -- and his EWA, despite limited minutes, was the best of any wing player remaining. Throw in the Thunder's success and this was an easy call.
The tougher call was between Pierce and Andre Iguodala for the final spot. I wanted to reward Iggy's defense, but Pierce is a pretty fine defender in his own right, and his offensive contributions were substantially better. In fact his EWA was only a hair behind Anthony's (9.8 and 9.4), and given the defensive disparity between those two it was clear Pierce deserved the nod.
Now for the frontcourt. Pau Gasol was an easy call for the next big man on the list. He's played consistently effective basketball under a huge minutes load, playing every game at 37.4 minutes per clip, and done so despite rarely getting post touches so Bynum could thrive on the block. He has the best plus-minus on the Lakers and his adjusted plus-minus ranks 12th in the league. You'd be hard-pressed to name a more versatile big man.
Now for the final cut … I agonized between Chandler and Kevin Garnett as my final big, but finally went in a different direction and picked Jefferson. It's not clear that his offense out-values the defense of Chandler or Garnett, but he put the Jazz on his back in their playoff drive, and defensively I'll offer the faint praise that he was better than usual. Supporting that point of view, his adjusted plus-minus numbers this year were outstanding.
What's amazing is how many good bigs didn't make the cut. While we had exactly three elite point guard seasons and were scrounging for wings to fill out our team, Chandler, Garnett, LaMarcus Aldridge, Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Smith, Marc Gasol and Paul Millsap all had compelling cases to be in this frontcourt.
So if I get a "fourth team," I'll fill it all with bigs: Garnett, Chandler, Nowitzki, Aldridge and Smith.
MVP
1. LeBron James, Miami
2. Chris Paul, Clippers
3. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
4. Kevin Love, Minnesota
5. Blake Griffin, Clippers
This covers most of the ground we took on above, but let me just chime in with the thought that Paul was clearly more valuable than Durant, both on and off the court. Ultimately, however, this race is between LeBron James and people's desire to vote for somebody other than James.
The oft-heard mantra is that every other three-time MVP won a championship; what people forget is that not all had a title before they had the third MVP; twice a player has been awarded a third MVP before he had a first ring. Wilt Chamberlain won his third MVP in the spring of 1967 and his first ring a month later, and Moses Malone did the same thing in 1983. James may follow a similar pattern.
Sixth Man
1. James Harden, Oklahoma City
2. Taj Gibson, Chicago
3. (tie) Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams, Philadelphia
Harden is a no-brainer to win, but the guy everybody is sleeping on is Gibson because he's not a scorer. He is, however, a defensive monster who leads the entire NBA in adjusted plus-minus, and he's not a stiff on offense -- his PER this year is a healthy 16.77. I chickened out a bit on third place, but it's really the Young-Williams combo that makes Philly's bench so potent as opposed to just one or the other.
Most Improved Player
1. Ersan Ilyasova, Milwaukee
2. DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento
3. Jeremy Lin, New York
I've always hated this award because the connotation is "We expected you to really suck this year." But if we must … Lin would be the hands-down winner if he had played all season, but he didn't, and we can't just assume he would have played lights-out for 30 more games. Ditto for Minnesota's Nikola Pekovic, another strong contender here.
I also discount those two and Cousins because they're second-year players; we expect progress from the likes of them, as well as the likes of Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors in Utah.
What Ilyasova did, however, was truly different. He emerged from obscurity in his fourth pro season (or sixth, if you include his two-year hiatus overseas) to post a 20.58 PER -- up from 14.40 a year earlier -- and kept Milwaukee in the playoff race. Ilyasova was sort of a poor man's Kevin Love, shooting 45.5 percent on 3s while averaging 12.8 boards per 40 minutes, including a 29-point, 25-board eruption against New Jersey.
Defensive Player of the Year
1. Tyson Chandler, New York
2. Kevin Garnett, Boston
3. Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia
I've made my case for Chandler already, although Garnett's beastly finish to the season certainly warrants attention.
The other interesting discussion item here is shot-blocking leader Serge Ibaka. A lot of people have him on their DPOY ballots, but in my mind he's nowhere close. He blocks a lot of shots but it's difficult to make a case for him when the Thunder's defense shows no great variation whether he's in or out of the game. While he blocks a lot of shots, his fundamentals against pick-and-rolls and perimeter 4s remain raw. Please reference Game 1 of the 2011 Western Conference finals, for instance.
Coach of the Year
1. Gregg Popovich, San Antonio
2. Tom Thibodeau, Chicago
3. Monty Williams, New Orleans
It's a two-horse race at the top followed by several worthy contestants for third; you could quibble between Pops and Thibs but they should be the top two on every ballot. I listed Williams third because of how hard the Hornets played even in a hopeless situation; one could just as easily have put Dwane Casey, Lionel Hollins, Larry Drew, Doc Rivers, Mike Woodson, Stan Van Gundy, Rick Carlisle, Alvin Gentry or Tyrone Corbin in that position.
Rookie of the Year
1. Kyrie Irving, Cleveland
2. Kenneth Faried, Denver
3. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio
Isaiah Thomas was amazing, especially considering he was the 60th pick, but I can't seriously put him ahead of guys making two-way contributions as starters on playoff teams; Faried outranked Thomas in EWA anyway and Leonard wasn't far behind. My last two spots on an all-rookie team would go to Thomas and Minnesota's Ricky Rubio, whose passing drew oohs and ahhs but whose real impact was as a defensive maestro.