Awesome graphic of metric analysis of Spurs and Jazz

[Spursfanfromafar]

I thought the Tableau graphs for the Spurs and Jazz showed up where they are particularly strong, their weaknesses and their performance relative to league average. Brilliant stuff.

from Hardwood Paroxysm -

http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2012/04/27/2012-nba-playoffs-spurs-vs-jazz/

Dejuan Blair is the anti-Duncan and Splitter is pretty much Duncan-lite.. the graphs show.

Awesome indeed.

[Spursfanfromafar]

Stephen Jackson's worth is so visible - drawing fouls and earning free throws; drives to the basket and shots from close range.

And all the wings - Danny Green, Stephen Jackson and Kawhi Leonard (and Manu Ginobili) are fantastic rebounders for position. Even Gary Neal.

[GSH]

Now that is a great tool! Awesome having so many things in one place like that, and being able to see it graphically. It's going to take some time to digest it all, but even at first glance - look at how much Devin Harris and Earl Watson get to the FT line, compared to Parker and Neal. Think that might be a problem? The Jazz playing physical, and our guys not getting the whistles? Or their guys getting our bigs into foul trouble.

Definitely some interesting info to come from it.

[jestersmash]

The FTA/FGA statistic is pretty deceptive. If anything, as a "first pass" he should've used FTA/2PA (disregarding any 3PA).

By this metric, Ginobili gets to the line more per 2PA (where most fouls happen) than Gordon Hayward, despite Haywards FTA/FGA bar being higher.

The next obvious question to ask is are Ginobili's 3PA hurting is overall offensive efficiency? After all, I can't just outright ignore his 3PA in a FTA/FGA analysis and simultaneously ignore how efficient he actually is from 3. Not to worry - Ginobili's 41.3% from 3 point land far outshines Hayward's 34.6%.

Despite Hayward's FTA/FGA bar being higher than Ginobili's, the reality of the situation is that Hayward takes less 3PA than Ginobili, makes less of them (34.6% to Ginobili's 41.3%), and gets to the line less often than Ginobili when he drives to the rim or pulls up for a mid range jumper.

[jestersmash]

Oh, and the other slight correction you'd have to make is you would have to somehow ignore any FTA Ginobili has received from being fouled at the 3 point line.

I don't have the stats on hand, but I've watched every spurs game this season, and the only time I can remember Ginobili fouled at the 3 point line is in the Lakers game where Kobe tried to close out hard and fouled him.

So knock 3 FTA off his total season FTA and re-do the analysis, and you still come up with the same conclusions. Ginobili has a higher FTA/2PA than Hayward (and that's including any FTA that Hayward may have received from being fouled shooting a 3).

Edit: Slight correction, there was another game where Bonner failed to pass the ball around the horn immediately to Ginobili and instead opted to catch the ball, mini-drive it in left handed, and then pass to Gino who is fouled shooting a 3 point attempt, so make that 6 FTA from being fouled while shooting a 3.

I remember Ginobili was pretty mad at Bonner for failing to look for that pass immediately. I think it was the second time he made that mistake that game. The problem with Bonner is that he has to consider 3 potential options very quickly during the course of the game:

1) Catch and shoot the 3 immediately if he's open
2) Catch, pump-fake, dribble drive (I cringe when I see him do this)
3) Catch and pass immediately to the open man

He wasn't looking for "3" enough even when "3" was the appropriate choice. If not 1, he'd automatically defer to "2", much to Ginobili's annoyance.

[cheguevara]

Splitter is a fucking beast

[GSH]

The FTA/FGA statistic is pretty deceptive. If anything, as a "first pass" he should've used FTA/2PA (disregarding any 3PA).




That's a valid point. And you're right, Manu does get to the line quite a bit when he's shooting 2P shots.

But I was comparing Devin Harris to Parker. And Harris shoots quite a lot of 3's, while Parker only rarely shoots them. If anything, that would make the disparity between the two much worse. Because it means that Harris gets to the line a LOT more than Parker, when he's shooting two-pointers.

[jestersmash]

That's a valid point. And you're right, Manu does get to the line quite a bit when he's shooting 2P shots.

But I was comparing Devin Harris to Parker. And Harris shoots quite a lot of 3's, while Parker only rarely shoots them. If anything, that would make the disparity between the two much worse. Because it means that Harris gets to the line a LOT more than Parker, when he's shooting two-pointers.

Ah yes, with the Harris-Parker comparison you're absolutely right. The FTA/FGA comparison can be useful for other matchups. I agree.

It's deceptive for at least the Manu-Hayward comparison, though (and perhaps a couple of other comparisons, though I haven't checked yet).

[GSH]

Here -

Devin Harris FTA/2Pa is .635
Parker's FTA/2Pa is .343

So when Harris is shooting 2-pointers, he's drawing a whistle close to twice as often as Parker. I know a lot of factors affect that, especially where they are taking their shots. But that is a huge disparity. And the things I said still hold. They are going to be playing physical, especially in the paint. And if Parker doesn't draw some whistles, it's going to be tough. And if Harris is getting the whistles, we're going to have some foul trouble with our bigs.

[GSH]

Splitter is a fucking beast

:tu


I'm good with that.

[jestersmash]

Here -

Devin Harris FTA/2Pa is .635
Parker's FTA/2Pa is .343

So when Harris is shooting 2-pointers, he's drawing a whistle close to twice as often as Parker. I know a lot of factors affect that, especially where they are taking their shots. But that is a huge disparity. And the things I said still hold. They are going to be playing physical, especially in the paint. And if Parker doesn't draw some whistles, it's going to be tough. And if Harris is getting the whistles, we're going to have some foul trouble with our bigs.

Those are some disconcerting statistics. Tony's penchant to make prolific use of the floater probably contributes to that disparity somewhat (where he's ignoring contact by design altogether), but even that notwithstanding those are some sobering statistics.

The one thing that gives me hope is that against Utah this season Tony's been 8-8, 9-10, and 10-10 from the free throw line, respectively. Utah's reputation for fouling a lot wasn't ignored in Tony's case, at least (I think Manu had something ridiculous like 15 FTA in the last Utah@Spurs game as well).

[GSH]

Those are some disconcerting statistics. Tony's penchant to make prolific use of the floater probably contributes to that disparity somewhat (where he's ignoring contact by design altogether), but even that notwithstanding those are some sobering statistics.

The one thing that gives me hope is that against Utah this season Tony's been 8-8, 9-10, and 10-10 from the free throw line, respectively. Utah's reputation for fouling a lot wasn't ignored in Tony's case, at least (I think Manu had something ridiculous like 15 FTA in the last Utah@Spurs game as well).


Pretty much everyone agrees that the Jazz are going to be very physical in this series. It's their main, if not their only equalizer against the Spurs.

I don't have any problems with a team playing physical. But the downside to playing that way should be more whistles. I mean, if your plan is to bang into people a lot more, you aren't going to time all the bumps perfectly. I know the refs allow more contact during the playoffs. But if they totally swallow their whistles, the Spurs are going to have a long, hard series ahead of them.

That graph is just one sign of what I'm talking about. If the Jazz are allowed to bump Tony off his shots, he's going to miss a lot of them. If they don't give him some trips to the FT line to compensate, they will be able to go a long way toward neutralizing our biggest threat this season. We've still got a lot of great outside shooters. But I hate the thought of winning a championship from the 3P line.

[Jess]

Don't these numbers indicate Tim and Tiago can play together? Tim high, Tiago low. Timmy hits that top o' the key jumper often enough to keep his man from sitting in Tiago's lap. And Splitter is way more efficient down low, but Duncan eats all of those FGA. If Tim would defer a little more, seems like that unit would work.

I didn't get to see the Laker games where Tiago started. How did they look?

Edit - Just noticed Tiago is compared against players who play fewer minutes, which skews his post numbers. Disregard.