Insider Request: San Antonio Spurs winning with offense

[Uriel]

Could anyone with ESPN Insider please post the full version of the following article? It's fairly old, but it details how the Spurs could struggle in the playoffs given the dropoff in their defense (which fortunately has been showing signs of life as of late).

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story?id=7813218

Here's the preview:

San Antonio winning with offense
Spurs could struggle in playoffs without trademark stifling D

Originally Published: April 14, 2012
By Neil Paine | Basketball Reference

With the San Antonio Spurs vaulting up the Western Conference standings over the past few months, you might be tempted to take a stroll down memory lane, reminiscing about those great championship Spurs teams of old. You know, the ones featuring the likes of David Robinson, Bruce Bowen and Robert Horry, with a suffocating defense led by Tim Duncan, owner of the sixth-most defensive win shares in NBA history.

It's true, the Spurs' title years are matched only by the 1950s-60s Celtics in the pantheon of great defensive dynasties. In fact, they're the only two teams in the history of the NBA to sustain a defensive efficiency five points better than the league average over a 14-season span. For this reason alone, Duncan deserves to be mentioned in the same sentence as Bill Russell when it comes to anchoring the greatest multiyear defenses ever built.

From 1998-2008, the Spurs never finished outside the league's top three in defensive efficiency. On offense, San Antonio was regularly above-average, and finished worse than 12th in offensive efficiency only once between 1999 and 2007. But just the same, they were never an elite offensive team; 2007 was the only season during San Antonio's dynasty years that it ranked among the league's top five teams in points per possession. It's hard to find fault with this game plan of serviceable offense and elite defense -- after all, it resulted in four titles over a nine-season span.

However, the red-hot Spurs of 2012 bear little resemblance to those dynasty-era San Antonio teams. As Duncan has gotten longer in the tooth and defense-first role players like Bowen and Horry have retired, the Spurs have gradually shifted their focus away from a dominant D. This season, San Antonio ranks just 13th in defensive efficiency, its worst showing since 1996-97 (the season before Duncan's rookie campaign).

Instead, these Spurs are winning with offense -- which could lead to postseason disappointment in San Antonio for the second season in a row.

[shorttotry]

There's no freaking way our defense is any worse than last years' given our recent upgrades. It's definitely our best defensive lineup in a very very long time.

[Solid D]

While Neil Paine of Basketball reference fame may have statistical basis for what he says, stats don't always tell the tale. Paine's statistics showed that Pop should have finished 4th in Coach of the Year honors, behind Monty Williams, Ty Corbin and Larry Drew. http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2224

Right now, the Spurs are the hot team and one need only look as far back as the St. Louis Cardinals, NY Giants or even Dallas Mavs last season to see that the hot team can win the title. The same Cardinals and Giants who squeezed into the playoffs in their last regular season games or the same Mavs who had only the 7th best defensive efficiency and 8th best point diff..

[Spursfanfromafar]

While Neil Paine of Basketball reference fame may have statistical basis for what he says, stats don't always tell the tale. Paine's statistics showed that Pop should have finished 4th in Coach of the Year honors, behind Monty Williams, Ty Corbin and Larry Drew. http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2224

Right now, the Spurs are the hot team and one need only look as far back as the St. Louis Cardinals, NY Giants or even Dallas Mavs last season to see that the hot team can win the title. The same Carinals and Giants who squeezed into the playoffs n their last game or the same Mavs who had only the 7th best defensive efficiency and 8th best point diff..

Actually, Paine's estimates are very revealing. It shows while some coaches have coached very bad teams and made them passable (Corbin, Drew), Popovich has turned a good team into a really good one. And considering that he exceeded expectations last year as well, it adds to his aura even more. Paine's analysis therefore makes Popovich an even more deserving candidate by grading performance based on relativising cumulative player performance from last year.

[Solid D]

Actually, Paine's estimates are very revealing. It shows while some coaches have coached very bad teams and made them passable (Corbin, Drew), Popovich has turned a good team into a really good one. And considering that he exceeded expectations last year as well, it adds to his aura even more. Paine's analysis therefore makes Popovich an even more deserving candidate by grading performance based on relativising cumulative player performance from last year.

True about Pop..and while Paine's analysis has statistical basis, the reality regarding a championship is the hot team can, and frequently does, win it all.

[jiggy_55]

San Antonio winning with offense
Spurs could struggle in playoffs without trademark stifling D

Originally Published: April 14, 2012
By Neil Paine | Basketball Reference

The new-look Spurs are strong on offense but vulnerable on defense.
With the San Antonio Spurs vaulting up the Western Conference standings over the past few months, you might be tempted to take a stroll down memory lane, reminiscing about those great championship Spurs teams of old. You know, the ones featuring the likes of David Robinson, Bruce Bowen and Robert Horry, with a suffocating defense led by Tim Duncan, owner of the sixth-most defensive win shares in NBA history.

It's true, the Spurs' title years are matched only by the 1950s-60s Celtics in the pantheon of great defensive dynasties. In fact, they're the only two teams in the history of the NBA to sustain a defensive efficiency five points better than the league average over a 14-season span. For this reason alone, Duncan deserves to be mentioned in the same sentence as Bill Russell when it comes to anchoring the greatest multiyear defenses ever built.

From 1998-2008, the Spurs never finished outside the league's top three in defensive efficiency. On offense, San Antonio was regularly above-average, and finished worse than 12th in offensive efficiency only once between 1999 and 2007. But just the same, they were never an elite offensive team; 2007 was the only season during San Antonio's dynasty years that it ranked among the league's top five teams in points per possession. It's hard to find fault with this game plan of serviceable offense and elite defense -- after all, it resulted in four titles over a nine-season span.

However, the red-hot Spurs of 2012 bear little resemblance to those dynasty-era San Antonio teams. As Duncan has gotten longer in the tooth and defense-first role players like Bowen and Horry have retired, the Spurs have gradually shifted their focus away from a dominant D. This season, San Antonio ranks just 13th in defensive efficiency, its worst showing since 1996-97 (the season before Duncan's rookie campaign).

Instead, these Spurs are winning with offense -- which could lead to postseason disappointment in San Antonio for the second season in a row.

What's to blame for the Spurs' decline on D? One glaring difference between the Spurs of recent vintage and the dynasty versions is the absence of a second huge, lane-clogging big man to pair with Duncan in the frontcourt. Early in their run, Duncan and Robinson formed a fearsome "twin towers" combination that severely curtailed opponents' ability to create high-percentage looks around the basket. In 2003, that role was split between an aging Robinson and the undersized Malik Rose, but starting in 2004 the team again began slotting in big men who stood 6-foot-10 or taller beside Duncan -- names like Rasho Nesterovic, Nazr Mohammed, Fabricio Oberto, and Francisco Elson.

San Antonio's defense started to slip in 2009, when the Spurs were again forced to use undersized bigs like Kurt Thomas, Antonio McDyess, DeJuan Blair and Tiago Splitter -- on top of giving increased minutes to Matt Bonner, whom the plus/minus numbers hold in reasonably high regard but scouts consider a below-average defender. That, combined with Gregg Popovich aggressively managing Duncan's minutes (he averages about 28 MPG these days), has had a profound impact on San Antonio's defense.

Another place to look for culprits in the Spurs' defensive decline is on the wing. The drastic reduction in 2008-09 in Bowen's playing time (followed by his retirement that summer) and various injuries to Manu Ginobili have done serious damage to San Antonio defensively. Pre-2010 acquisition Richard Jefferson was always an average defender at best, while backup guards George Hill, Gary Neal and James Anderson haven't been standouts at that end of the floor, either (Hill and Jefferson have since been traded). Danny Green and rookie Kawhi Leonard have shown flashes of improved D this season, but as of yet the Spurs have not been able to replace the lockdown wing defense Bowen provided for so many seasons.

Whatever the reasons for their declining defense, San Antonio is instead relying heavily on the league's second-ranked offense for wins. The Spurs are 4.8 efficiency points better than the NBA average on offense, which would be their best showing in a season since the Mike Mitchell/Artis Gilmore-led squad of 1983. With Ginobili again losing large chunks of time to injury, Tony Parker has put the team on his back, shouldering much of San Antonio's scoring load and almost all of its playmaking responsibilities with a great deal of efficiency. In addition, Duncan and Blair have been solid, if unspectacular, and the team's role players -- namely Leonard, Green, Bonner and Splitter -- are collectively having a great season, averaging 1.16 points every time they finish a possession (the league average is 1.05).

What Leonard, Green and Bonner have in common is that they take a large number of shots from 3-point territory (particularly Green, for whom 3s make up 48 percent of his shots, and Bonner, who takes an astounding 72 percent of his shots from long range), making roughly 40 percent of them apiece. Their ability to knock down open jumpers created by Parker's penetration and Duncan's still-threatening offensive game is why San Antonio counts itself among the league's most potent shooting teams, both by 3-point percentage (the Spurs rank second) and total makes (fourth). This is what the new-look Spurs do: bomb you from downtown, attack you in screen-and-rolls, and hope they score enough to offset an increasingly average defense.

It's a formula that Popovich has cleverly crafted in response to ever-changing personnel, reminiscent of the way his closest football equivalent, Bill Belichick, has retooled the formerly defensive-minded New England Patriots into a high-flying offensive attack in recent seasons. But in two Super Bowl losses (sandwiched around two other early postseason exits), Belichick has learned the hard lesson that great regular-season offenses frequently disappoint in the NFL playoffs.

Likewise, the best offenses in the NBA often flame out before reaching the promised land: Since 1951, teams that finished first or second in offensive rating won the NBA title 20 times, a 16 percent rate. The same number for teams that were first or second in defensive rating -- 28 times, or 23 percent. Score one for that adage about defense winning championships.

Neither a great defense nor a great offense alone is a guarantee of postseason success, mind you. History shows that a balanced team which mixes great O and great D is the best ticket to a championship. However, by casting their fate with offense over defense in recent seasons, the Spurs have not only departed from the recipe that won them four championships in nine seasons, but they've likely set themselves up for postseason disappointment. A recent loss to the Lakers exposed San Antonio's matchup problems with bigger frontcourts, an issue that goes hand in hand with its shift in focus from defense to offense.

This isn't to say the Spurs are destined to lose before hoisting their fifth Larry O'Brien trophy, but what was once the game's premier defensive franchise has unquestionably transformed itself into an offense-first team over the past few seasons. We'll find out in the playoffs whether that change was for the better.

Neil Paine is a writer and analyst for Basketball-reference.com.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

While Neil Paine of Basketball reference fame may have statistical basis for what he says, stats don't always tell the tale. Paine's statistics showed that Pop should have finished 4th in Coach of the Year honors, behind Monty Williams, Ty Corbin and Larry Drew. http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2224

Right now, the Spurs are the hot team and one need only look as far back as the St. Louis Cardinals, NY Giants or even Dallas Mavs last season to see that the hot team can win the title. The same Cardinals and Giants who squeezed into the playoffs in their last regular season games or the same Mavs who had only the 7th best defensive efficiency and 8th best point diff..

They have been 37-7 the last three months. .860 over 42 games is not a hot streak. Its dominance.

[xellos88330]

April 14th?

[Genjuro]

Likewise, the best offenses in the NBA often flame out before reaching the promised land: Since 1951, teams that finished first or second in offensive rating won the NBA title 20 times, a 16 percent rate. The same number for teams that were first or second in defensive rating -- 28 times, or 23 percent. Score one for that adage about defense winning championships.
Well, I thought it was much worse, but a 7 percentage point differential looks pretty low to me.

[therealtruth]

Well, I thought it was much worse, but a 7 percentage point differential looks pretty low to me.

Does that count the overlap?

[Hooks]

The Spurs defense has gotten a lot better since adding Diaw and Jax, benching Blair and starting Diaw/Leonard.

Does anyone know where their defense ranks since adding them?

[freetiago]

i remember in a david locke (jazz radio guy) podcast posted here
he looked into san antonios last 10 games of the regular season and we had a top 5 defense in the league

dumping RJ and benching the cancer blair really removed all the weaknesses
if our guards ever learn how to move around a screen we could still be elite defensively
screens and ballhandlers in the pick and roll are our only weaknesses defensively

[Stabula]

Dude

[buttsR4rebounding]

Dude

Wow, way to bring it with your 2nd post...was your first post "Gnarly"?

[mudyez]

no Kevin Willis mentioned?

-->fail!

[dunkman]

Not sure how are Dice and Splitter undersized. Thomas is average height PF. Dice and Thomas were better defensive players than Nazr, Overtly or Elson. The defense slipped because Bowen wasn't an elite defensive player since 2008 and Duncan lost mobility around that time too.

The Lakers had more talent in 2008, the Spurs lost that year because they didn't improved they roster by much, while other teams like the Celtics and Lakers improved a lot. The Spurs had no answer for Odom, Bowen couldn't contain Kobe anymore and Gasol was very effective too. Also Manu was overused to survive the Hornets series, he caught some injury, no way an sub par defensive wing like the machine would guard him, no one can guard him.

In 2009, the Spurs lost to an very talented Mavs team, and Manu was out and some key contributors of the past seasons were on their last legs. The Spurs were not a contender, hence the Spurs added talent (RJ) and Dice after the season.

In 2010, the Suns were much better than the Spurs. They would have matched up better against the Lakers. Duncan had problems with his knee for the second part of the season. A big salary addition RJ disappointed.

In 2011, once again, the Spurs faced a better team in the playoffs. Manu injured his arm in the last regular season game. The Grizzlies had quality bigs, great wing defensive players and an excellent PG. Once again, RJ did nothing.

The FO made some bad decisions, like trading first rounders, trading Scola away or trading for RJ, then Manu was injured 3 seasons, Pop didn't want to play some defensive players, and the competition was much better then ever before. Since 2008, the teams that have won it all, had much more talent than the Spurs last championship team.

This year is different, the Spurs are q legit contender for a number of reasons. But I'm not sure if they can pass the Heat if both teams make it to the finals. Time will tell.

[Cherry]

:rolleyesESPN:rolleyes






.:flag:

[Jimcs50]

They have been 37-7 the last three months. .860 over 42 games is not a hot streak. Its dominance.


42 games? Hmmm, 37+ 7= 44, unless I'm missing something.

:p:


37-7 is much better than 37-13 which is record they had in 99, when they dominated the playoffs 15-2 to win first championship.

That is why I think they will go at least 16-2 this year.

[wut]

There's no freaking way our defense is any worse than last years' given our recent upgrades. It's definitely our best defensive lineup in a very very long time.

agreed...it might be the dirty little secret no one in the national media even knows about. Spurs offense has been more up-tempo for a few years now, it's the lack of defense, or poor defense that has had the Spurs coming up short in recent history.

[wildbill2u]

Hoopsdata.com has some interesting statistics on team performance this year. The most interesting is the offensive vs. defensive stats which measure the difference between points scored vs. points allowed. That's a pretty good way to determine the overall strength of the team when averaged out over lots of games.

The Spurs have relentlessly moved up in the standings during the year. By 4-26 they were number 2 behind the Bulls. Bulls had a 9.2 point differential while the Spurs had 7.9 point differential. And you might want to figure in that the Bulls division and conference is probably weaker than the West.

God only knows what the differential may be now with the latest wins added in.

[Knoxxx]

The jury is out, and last year was useless to predict this year. Duncan had the bum ankle and Manu the elbow, and certainly we got better by dumping RJ.

The NBA needs to thank us if we win it this year. Scoring well over 100 PPG in an up tempo precision attack SHOULD be what everyone likes to see.

Instead the NBA, due to the idiocy of the general public, has to hype up ugly defensive teams like the Heat. I would rather be water boarded than have to watch a Heat game. Unless the Spurs are involved and routing them by 30. :-)