Preview: Spurs @ Jazz - Game 3

[timvp]

While I know most Spurs fans are so overconfident right now that they think San Antonio will not only win the championship but do so while going undefeated throughout the playoffs, I think tonight is when we'll really start figuring out how good this Spurs team is and what their chances are going forward.

The first two games against the Jazz were destined to be easy wins. The Jazz have been horrible on the road -- heck, they were worse on the road than the Nets and Bucks this season. A loss at home to the Jazz would have been a colossal upset. In fact, I think it's safe to say any team of the Duncan era would have gone up 2-0 in this series.

Tonight, though, will definitely be a test. At home, the Jazz won only one less game than the Bulls, Thunder, Lakers and Grizzlies. Furthermore, Utah hasn't lost to a playoff team at home in nearly three months.

Although Spurs fans are quick to point to the last game in Utah in which San Antonio sans the Big 3 almost won, I think that was more of a classic letdown game than anything else. The Jazz didn't come out with much energy due to the circumstances, while the Spurs were focused from the beginning to try to steal a win.

In Game 3, there won't be any lack of energy from the Jazz or their crowd. Salt Lake City promises to be ravenous and the Jazz fans incessant whining will be full-throat from the opening tip.

Why are the Jazz better at home? Their offensive efficiency goes from mediocre on the road to elite in front of their home fans. On the road, they average 97.4 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 30.8% shooting on threes. At home, the Jazz average 101.9 points while shooting 46.4% from the field and 33.8% on threes. Utah also gets to the line much more often at home (23.3 vs. 27.2).

Individually, Al Jefferson and Devin Harris play much better at home. Jefferson shoots only 46.5% on the road but 52.3% in Salt Lake City. Harris sees his scoring average rise from 9.8 to 12.8, which is aided by the fact that he goes to the line twice as often at home. So far the Spurs have shut down Jeferson and Harris in this series, but that will be no small task tonight.

For the Spurs to win, the keys remain generally unchanged. To begin the contest, the Jazz are sure to come out fired up. With that in mind, the Spurs need to limit Utah's initial run and avoid early foul trouble. The rest of the way, San Antonio has to continue to do the things needed to beat Utah: rebound on both ends of the court, be physical enough offensively to ensure there won't be a large free throw disparity, and knock down three-pointers against their sagging defense.

I expect the Spurs to win Game 3 but I also expect it to be a dogfight. Things won't come easy and it's going to take some fourth quarter execution to get the job done. Do the 2012 Spurs have championship-level mettle? Tonight will begin to answer that question.

Believe.

[Reck]

Who actually believes they'll go undefeated throughout the playoffs? That's blasphemy.

Good read overall.

[Wild Cobra Kai]

I fully expect to lose one of the Utah games. The problem for the Jazz is that they will have to expend so much effort on the court and in the film room looking for ANY edge to do so that they won't have anything left. It'll be a one off.

Spurs in 5.

[Obstructed_View]

If the Spurs let down, they're gonna get their asses kicked. Utah's been playing pretty good basketball for the last couple of months and they're desperate and they'll have one of the best crowds in sports behind them. There's not really a downside to any result of this game. If they lose, they'll learn an early lesson about maintaining focus.

[Mark in Austin]

There's also a little thing called professional pride. The Utah media has been shaming the team - calling them out since the end of the last game. I would be shocked if Utah didn't come out focused and physical.

[FromWayDowntown]

Game 3 Officials: Ken Mauer (Crew Chief), James Capers, Leon Wood

Since 1998 playoffs:

Spurs are 10-7 overall in Mauer playoff games (5-4 on the road, 4-3 in the first round). They won the only game against the Jazz that Mauer has called in that time -- Game 4 of the 2007 WCF in Utah:


2011 WCFR Gm. 5 v. MEM (Win) -- Neal buzzer beater game
2010 WCSF Gm. 1 @ PNX (Loss)
2010 WCFR Gm. 2 @ DAL (Win)
2008 WCF Gm. 2 @ LAL (Loss)
2008 WCSF Gm. 6 v. NO (Win)
2008 WCFR Gm. 2 v. PNX (Win)
2007 NBAF Gm. 1 v. CLE (Win)
2007 WCF Gm. 4 @ UTH (Win)
2006 WCSF Gm. 6 @ DAL (Win)
2006 WCFR Gm. 3 @ SAC (Loss)
2005 WCF Gm. 2 @ PNX (Win)
2004 WCSF Gm. 6 @ LAL (Loss) -- game after .4
2003 WCSF Gm. 2 v. LAL (Win) -- Bowen's 27 pointer
2003 WCFR Gm. 1 v. PNX (Loss) -- Marbury buzzer beater
2002 WCSF Gm. 3 v. LAL (Loss)
1999 WCFR Gm. 2 v. MIN (Loss)
1998 WCFR Gm. 1 @ PNX (Win) -- Duncan's first playoff game

This season, the Spurs were 0-3 in games that Mauer called, losing in Oklahoma City, in Miami, and in Salt Lake City.

The Spurs are 8-2 overall in Capers playoff games (4-0 on the road, 4-1 in the first round):


2010 WCSF Gm. 3 v. PNX (Loss)
2010 WCFR Gm. 2 @ DAL (Win)
2009 WCFR Gm. 1 v. DAL (Loss)
2008 WCSF Gm. 4 v. NO (Win)
2008 WCFR Gm. 3 @ PNX (Win)
2007 WCSF Gm. 1 @ PNX (Win)
2006 WCFR Gm. 5 v. SAC (Win)
2005 WCSF Gm. 2 v. SEA (Win)
2003 WCSF Gm. 1 v. LAL (Win)
2002 WCFR Gm. 3 @ SEA (Win)

This season, the Spurs were 3-0 in games that Capers called, winning at home over Golden State, at Toronto, and at home against Utah on April 8).

The Spurs are 3-0 overall in Wood playoff games (1-0 on the road, 3-0 in the first round):


2011 WCFR Gm. 2 v. MEM (Win)
2008 WCFR Gm. 2 v. PNX (Win)
2005 WCFR Gm. 3 @ DEN (Win)

This season, the Spurs are 3-0 in games that Wood called, winning at home over Oklahoma City, at home over New York, and at Boston.


The Jazz are 5-2 in Mauer playoff games since 2003 (3-2 at home, 3-1 in the First Round). They are 1-4 with Capers (1-1 at home, 0-2 in the First Round). They are 1-1 with Wood having split a pair of First Round games on the road.

[Spurfect21]

Big key is to hold off the initial surge and get a fast start. Demoralize them early and it this will be another easy win.

[Spurs Brazil]

JMcDonald_SAEN Spurs center Tiago Splitter (wrist) will be available for Game 3 tonight vs. Jazz.

[Reck]

Big key is to hold off the initial surge and get a fast start. Demoralize them early and it this will be another easy win.

I think that will be easy. Spurs will be playing 5 on 4 to start.

Howard is nothing but an obstacle.

[Nathan89]

While I know most Spurs fans are so overconfident right now that they think San Antonio will not only win the championship but do so while going undefeated throughout the playoffs

Believe.

75Ua7yJhdcA

[ElNono]

Thank you both timvp and FromWayDowntown.

I have a feeling this game will be either a blowout win for the Jazz or the Spurs. Hoping for the latter, but wouldn't be surprised if the former comes to pass.

[tesseractive]

Tough game through 3 1/2, broken open down the stretch. 106-94.

[spurs10]

Spurs in 6....Return of Manu!!

[Nathan89]

Thank you both timvp and FromWayDowntown.

I have a feeling this game will be either a blowout win for the Jazz or the Spurs. Hoping for the latter, but wouldn't be surprised if the former comes to pass.

I don't think the Jazz can blowout the Spurs.

[tenbeersbold]

Spurs win by 12+,book it Danno!

[timtonymanu]

Something interesting to keep note: The Spurs haven't won a road playoff game since Game 2 against Dallas in 2010. It would be nice for them to get a win here.

[FromWayDowntown]

Something interesting to keep note: The Spurs haven't won a road playoff game since Game 2 against Dallas in 2010. It would be nice for them to get a win here.

They're 3-16 on the road since winning the title in Cleveland in 2007.

They're 1-12 on the road since winning Game 7 in New Orleans the following year.

[elemento]

Honestly

The mormons will flop like crazy, especially Harris and Hayward.

If the refs do a good job, i don't them winning this game. We will continue to abuse Al Jefferson with P&R and Parker will have 20+ points once again

[elemento]

Honestly

The mormons will flop like crazy, especially Harris and Hayward.

If the refs do a good job, i don't them winning this game. We will continue to abuse Al Jefferson with P&R and Parker will have 20+ points once again

[Aztecfan03]

Why are teams playing their 4th game when Spurs haven't even played their third?

[Cant_Be_Faded]

If we play with a mavericksesque intensity and get stomped I don't know how I will react.

Its not blind SpurFan pride to not even be able to mentally imagine losing tonight

The team has been peaking, on a roll, in an awesome groove.

I just can't see the spurs losing.

Go spurs

[Legacy]

FFS. Another late-ass game to boot. My sleep-cycle is still fucked up. Utah is only one hour behind SA time. Why 9PM over here?? This "series" is moving slower than molasses, I swear.


/wake-up rant

[Leetonidas]

I honestly don't think they will come out lazy against the Jazz. I'm sure Pop has beat it into their minds that they are an elite home team. That being said, I think the Spurs will win by 15 or so.

[chazley]

For the record, we are 1-10 on the road since NO game 7 in 2008, not 1-12.

[Legacy]

BTW, thanks for the read, timvp. :p:


Nap time for me again now. Damn slow-ass schedule. Not used to all this extra freakin' time. :sleep

[Mugen]

Good to know that Caron Butler and Tiago will only miss one game from their respective hand injuries :lol

[Bruno]

Jazz are so much better at home that this game should be more difficult. To have an easy series that will allow Spurs to be fresh for the secodn round, Spurs need to win at least one of two games in Utah.

[Obstructed_View]

Why are teams playing their 4th game when Spurs haven't even played their third?

My guess is that they figure this series is least likely to go six or seven games. They're doing the Spurs a favor if they take care of business. You don't want the Spurs having seven to ten days off between this series and the next one.

[NuGGeTs-FaN]

Game is on ESPN Australia at 12:00pm EST

[FromWayDowntown]

For the record, we are 1-10 on the road since NO game 7 in 2008, not 1-12.

This doesn't really matter that much, but:

They lost 3 in LA in the 2008 WCF.

They lost 2 in Dallas in the 2009 WCFR.

They won 1 and lost 2 in Dallas in the 2010 WCFR.

They lost 2 in Phoenix in the 2010 WCSF.

They lost 3 in Memphis in the 2011 WCFR.

0-3 (LAL, 2008)
0-2 (DAL, 2009)
0-5
1-2 (DAL, 2010)
1-7
0-2 (PNX, 2010)
1-9
0-3 (MEM, 2011)
1-12

[Budkin]

We're too deep and playing too well right now to get rattled. Spurs by 5.

[objective]

I think the key will be how much time Corbin gives to Favors. No Favors = No chance, he's that good for them.

[Obstructed_View]

Actually, this is the time where Manu steps up. He loves angry crowds. I remember him really taking it to Derek Fisher in Utah in 2007. He and Timmy got a ton of free throws in the fourth quarter. Thought that crowd was gonna have puppies.

[Wild Cobra Kai]

I don't think the Jazz can blowout the Spurs.

This. They don't get enough stops. That may lead to their very early demise. They aren't confident enough offensively or sharp enough defensively to overcome our inevitable big run(s). They would be like Dallas in their game three who got down, fought back, got down again, fought back, but cracked the third time.

[Jimcs50]

Timvp, I beg to differ. Huge difference betw this playoff Utah team and reg season team. They have deer in headlight looks every time they have tipped it off thus far. The Spurs will get lead in the game from get go and never relinquish it.

Spurs win tonight by at least 6, and on Monday by 20+.

[wildbill2u]

I have thought of so many possible scenarios it has driven me crazy. I have to admit I have no clue as to how this game will go other than both teams SHOULD come out of the gate with intensity.

Right now I'm thinking we win by four with Manu making foul shots down the stretch. But by game time I might change my mind.

Let's get this on.

[therealtruth]

Why are teams playing their 4th game when Spurs haven't even played their third?

The Spurs complained about a hectic end of the season schedule.

[therealtruth]

The question is how Pop reacts to them being blown out. Does he fight to see if they can still win the game or does he give up and rest the guys for the next game? If you're a championship level team you have to be able to handle being down 10+ and winning.

[biskvito]

Whoever gets sloppy on defense tonight will lose the game.

[timvp]

To put how huge the difference is with these Jazz regarding home vs. road:

Home Record
2004 Lakers: 34-7
2006 Mavs: 34-7
2007 Suns: 33-8
2003 Mavs: 33-8
2003 Nets: 33-8
2010 Suns: 32-9
2009 Mavs: 32-9
2012 Jazz: 31-10
2005 Nuggets: 31-10
2005 Suns: 31-10
2004 Grizzlies: 31-10
2003 Lakers: 31-10
2003 Suns: 30-11
2011 Grizzlies: 30-11
2008 Suns: 30-11
2008 Hornets: 30-11
2008 Lakers: 30-11
2007 Cavs: 30-11
2007 Jazz: 31-10
2010 Mavs: 28-13
2006 Kings: 27-14
2005 Sonics: 26-15
2007 Nuggets: 23-18

Road Record
2005 Suns: 31-10
2007 Suns: 28-13
2003 Mavs: 27-14
2010 Mavs: 27-14
2008 Lakers: 27-14
2008 Hornets: 26-15
2006 Mavs: 26-15
2008 Suns: 25-16
2007 Nuggets: 22-19
2004 Lakers: 22-19
2010 Suns: 22-19
2005 Sonics: 21-20
2007 Jazz: 20-21
2007 Cavs: 20-21
2004 Grizzlies: 19-22
2003 Lakers: 19-22
2009 Mavs: 18-23
2005 Nuggets: 18-23
2006 Kings: 17-24
2003 Nets: 16-25
2011 Grizzlies: 16-25
2003 Suns: 14-27
2012 Jazz: 13-28

(2012 Jazz obviously prorated)

These Jazz are the worst road team the Spurs have faced in the Big 3 era. But at home, they are in the top half and better than the 2011 Grizzlies and 2008 Lakers -- teams that eliminated the Spurs.

[NASpurs]

I like this stat from David Locke's twitter better than the Jazz's home record:

Spurs started year 2-8 on road since then 20-3 with two of those games without Duncan, Parker and Manu. Think about that.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

if we lose tonight it's over

[Russo21]

Nathan 89.. Totally love your vid of Amare bashing the fire extinguisher LMAO classic good job

[Leetonidas]

I honestly don't think they will come out lazy against the Jazz. I'm sure Pop has beat it into their minds that they are an elite home team. That being said, I think the Spurs will win by 15 or so.

Pretty close :toast