timvp
05-13-2012, 03:10 PM
The Grizzlies defeated the Clippers in Game 7 to advance to play the Spurs in round two. While the Clippers put up a good fight in this season, the ending was an inevitability because L.A. was on the road with their best two players (Chris Paul and Blake Griffin) slowed by injuries. I expected Memphis to easily take the game and they were able to do just that.
Although last season’s upset is still fresh in the minds of Spurs fans, I expect San Antonio to handily win the rematch. In fact, I believe it will be a sweep. Yes, 4-0.
It’ll be physical. There will definitely be some tough sledding at times. However, after four games, as long as they can remain healthy, the Spurs will be moving on to the 2012 Western Conference Finals.
Here’s why:
10. No Letdowns
Even though the Spurs will have had more than a week of rest before the Grizzlies series begins, you can bet your bottom dollar that San Antonio will be ready to play. The sting of last year’s loss, especially the way they lost Game 1, won’t allow the Spurs to take this series lightly. The Spurs will be loaded for bear come the opening tip.
9. Tony Parker is ready
Mike Conley came out of nowhere to become the league’s preeminent Tony Parker defender at some point last season. Conley’s ability to stay with the Frenchman seemed to surprise Parker early in last year’s series. Eventually, Parker adjusted and did relatively well in the final few games. In this upcoming series, there won’t need to be an adjustment period. Parker knows Conley is the real deal and will be looking for retribution. And if it’s via passing and playmaking rather than scoring, Parker has shown -- this season more than ever -- the ability and wherewithal to modify his attack accordingly.
8. Tim Duncan is rolling
Last postseason, Tim Duncan wasn’t himself. He sprained his ankle in the stretch run of the regular season and never looked quite right again. Give the Grizzlies credit for defending him well but there’s no doubt Duncan is a better player than we saw in those six games last year in the playoffs. At the moment, the future first ballot Hall of Famer is playing as well as he’s played in years. Duncan’s mobility is much better than a year ago and he’s been in a groove the last couple of months. In the four meetings during the regular season versus the Grizzlies, Duncan has been dominant -- averaging 17.8 points and 10.3 rebounds in 30 minutes per game on 58.3% shooting from the field
7. Manu Ginobili is immune
When it comes to perimeter defenders in the NBA, Tony Allen of the Grizzlies is regarded by many as the best of the best. He’s quick, strong, aggressive and just a tough S.O.B. But, for reasons I’m not entirely sure about, Manu Ginobili is immune to Allen’s defense. Last year in the playoffs, Ginobili destroyed him even though the Argentine sensation was playing with a broken arm. In the 106 minutes the two players were on the court together in the postseason, the Spurs outscored the Grizzlies by 27 points. During those 106 minutes, Ginobili poured in 72 points on 51% shooting from the floor. Subjectively, it appeared as if Ginobili was able to match Allen’s toughness and then beat him with craftiness. On the other end of the court, Ginobili was free to wreak havoc by roaming off of the jumper-less Allen.
6. Zach Randolph is not 100%
Last year, Zach Randolph was by far the best player in the series. But after missing most of the regular season with a knee injury, Randolph has yet to reach last season’s level of play. A year ago, he posted a PER of 22.6 in the regular season and the same number against the Spurs in the playoffs. This regular season, Randolph had a 17.9 PER. Against the Clippers in the first round, his PER was sub-17. Another sign he’s not healthy: Randolph played 40 or more minutes four times against the Spurs in the playoffs last postseason, however he has yet to play 40 minutes in any game so far this season.
5. Grizzlies Strengths Neutralized
As a team, the Grizzlies are elite at two areas of the game: grabbing offensive rebounds and forcing turnovers. While Memphis is able to win a lot of games leaning on those strengths, the Spurs happen to be elite at defensive rebounding and taking care of the basketball. In fact, they’re the best defensive rebounding team in the NBA and the third least turnover-prone. In the postseason last year, the Grizzlies weren’t able to hurt the Spurs much in these two areas and I don’t expect that to change this time around.
4. Spurs Know Spurs
The Spurs traditionally have great chemistry. This season, that on-court chemistry has gone to an even higher level. Every player knows his role and for the last six weeks, San Antonio has been a well-oiled machine. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are still searching for their identity. They have very good pieces but they haven’t yet figured out how those pieces fit together. Specifically, Memphis struggles to balance how much to go to Rudy Gay and how much to go to their interior players. Eventually, they’ll figure it out … but they’re not there yet.
3. Deadwood Removed
If you look back at the stats of last year's series, the Spurs struggled most when two players were on the court: Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess. For the series, the Spurs averaged only 92.7 points per 48 minutes. But when Jefferson was on the bench, the Spurs averaged more than 100 points per 48 minutes. The same thing happened when McDyess was on the bench.
2. Depth Matters
In the first round of the playoffs, Pop went 11 deep and there wasn’t much drop off at any point. Game in and game out, the Spurs can and will go ten deep. The Grizzlies have a quality starting lineup but their bench consists of O.J. Mayo and a bunch of questionable players. Ten versus six will especially help swing the series in the Spurs favor considering there will be limited rest between games.
1. Scoring Will Prevail
While it’s tempting to overdiagnose what went wrong last season, the bottomline is that San Antonio’s offense simply crashed and burned in the playoffs. And the offense disappearing wasn't a fluke; it had been getting progressively worse as last season progressed. Add a quality defensive team like the Grizzlies to the mix -- and that Ginobili arm injury -- and it wasn't exactly a surprise. This year, however, is different. The Spurs are peaking offensively and they will be able to put enough points on the board to make short work of the offensively-challenged Grizzlies.
Believe.
Although last season’s upset is still fresh in the minds of Spurs fans, I expect San Antonio to handily win the rematch. In fact, I believe it will be a sweep. Yes, 4-0.
It’ll be physical. There will definitely be some tough sledding at times. However, after four games, as long as they can remain healthy, the Spurs will be moving on to the 2012 Western Conference Finals.
Here’s why:
10. No Letdowns
Even though the Spurs will have had more than a week of rest before the Grizzlies series begins, you can bet your bottom dollar that San Antonio will be ready to play. The sting of last year’s loss, especially the way they lost Game 1, won’t allow the Spurs to take this series lightly. The Spurs will be loaded for bear come the opening tip.
9. Tony Parker is ready
Mike Conley came out of nowhere to become the league’s preeminent Tony Parker defender at some point last season. Conley’s ability to stay with the Frenchman seemed to surprise Parker early in last year’s series. Eventually, Parker adjusted and did relatively well in the final few games. In this upcoming series, there won’t need to be an adjustment period. Parker knows Conley is the real deal and will be looking for retribution. And if it’s via passing and playmaking rather than scoring, Parker has shown -- this season more than ever -- the ability and wherewithal to modify his attack accordingly.
8. Tim Duncan is rolling
Last postseason, Tim Duncan wasn’t himself. He sprained his ankle in the stretch run of the regular season and never looked quite right again. Give the Grizzlies credit for defending him well but there’s no doubt Duncan is a better player than we saw in those six games last year in the playoffs. At the moment, the future first ballot Hall of Famer is playing as well as he’s played in years. Duncan’s mobility is much better than a year ago and he’s been in a groove the last couple of months. In the four meetings during the regular season versus the Grizzlies, Duncan has been dominant -- averaging 17.8 points and 10.3 rebounds in 30 minutes per game on 58.3% shooting from the field
7. Manu Ginobili is immune
When it comes to perimeter defenders in the NBA, Tony Allen of the Grizzlies is regarded by many as the best of the best. He’s quick, strong, aggressive and just a tough S.O.B. But, for reasons I’m not entirely sure about, Manu Ginobili is immune to Allen’s defense. Last year in the playoffs, Ginobili destroyed him even though the Argentine sensation was playing with a broken arm. In the 106 minutes the two players were on the court together in the postseason, the Spurs outscored the Grizzlies by 27 points. During those 106 minutes, Ginobili poured in 72 points on 51% shooting from the floor. Subjectively, it appeared as if Ginobili was able to match Allen’s toughness and then beat him with craftiness. On the other end of the court, Ginobili was free to wreak havoc by roaming off of the jumper-less Allen.
6. Zach Randolph is not 100%
Last year, Zach Randolph was by far the best player in the series. But after missing most of the regular season with a knee injury, Randolph has yet to reach last season’s level of play. A year ago, he posted a PER of 22.6 in the regular season and the same number against the Spurs in the playoffs. This regular season, Randolph had a 17.9 PER. Against the Clippers in the first round, his PER was sub-17. Another sign he’s not healthy: Randolph played 40 or more minutes four times against the Spurs in the playoffs last postseason, however he has yet to play 40 minutes in any game so far this season.
5. Grizzlies Strengths Neutralized
As a team, the Grizzlies are elite at two areas of the game: grabbing offensive rebounds and forcing turnovers. While Memphis is able to win a lot of games leaning on those strengths, the Spurs happen to be elite at defensive rebounding and taking care of the basketball. In fact, they’re the best defensive rebounding team in the NBA and the third least turnover-prone. In the postseason last year, the Grizzlies weren’t able to hurt the Spurs much in these two areas and I don’t expect that to change this time around.
4. Spurs Know Spurs
The Spurs traditionally have great chemistry. This season, that on-court chemistry has gone to an even higher level. Every player knows his role and for the last six weeks, San Antonio has been a well-oiled machine. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are still searching for their identity. They have very good pieces but they haven’t yet figured out how those pieces fit together. Specifically, Memphis struggles to balance how much to go to Rudy Gay and how much to go to their interior players. Eventually, they’ll figure it out … but they’re not there yet.
3. Deadwood Removed
If you look back at the stats of last year's series, the Spurs struggled most when two players were on the court: Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess. For the series, the Spurs averaged only 92.7 points per 48 minutes. But when Jefferson was on the bench, the Spurs averaged more than 100 points per 48 minutes. The same thing happened when McDyess was on the bench.
2. Depth Matters
In the first round of the playoffs, Pop went 11 deep and there wasn’t much drop off at any point. Game in and game out, the Spurs can and will go ten deep. The Grizzlies have a quality starting lineup but their bench consists of O.J. Mayo and a bunch of questionable players. Ten versus six will especially help swing the series in the Spurs favor considering there will be limited rest between games.
1. Scoring Will Prevail
While it’s tempting to overdiagnose what went wrong last season, the bottomline is that San Antonio’s offense simply crashed and burned in the playoffs. And the offense disappearing wasn't a fluke; it had been getting progressively worse as last season progressed. Add a quality defensive team like the Grizzlies to the mix -- and that Ginobili arm injury -- and it wasn't exactly a surprise. This year, however, is different. The Spurs are peaking offensively and they will be able to put enough points on the board to make short work of the offensively-challenged Grizzlies.
Believe.