Spurs Clippers preview

[mchammer]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/paul_forrester/05/13/spurs.clippers.preview/index.html

No team handled the shortened season better than the Spurs. After receiving an infusion of athleticism and shooting from the outside in the offseason, coach Gregg Popovich played Scrooge with minutes, not allowing anyone play more than 32.8 a game and letting the team's Big Three skip selected road trips in order to keep rested. But unlike many veteran contenders, the Spurs didn't suffer a decline in playoff seeding for the gains of better health. In the process, Popovich developed a roster that doesn't have merely a Sixth Man of the Year candidate, but an entire lineup of them. In Round 1, the Jazz found out the futility of fighting to keep pace with Tim Duncan and Co. only to see San Antonio's bench extend leads in a four-game sweep.
The Clippers didn't find many leads to extend in beating the Grizzlies in seven games, but they seemed to discover the grit they'll need to have any chance of tripping up the Spurs' well-oiled machine. Part of that comes from grinding out physical, often ugly, wins over a solid Memphis defense. But more of it comes from Chris Paul, Caron Butler and Kenyon Martin -- players whose games rise when things get a little testy. The Spurs don't invite the type of sharp elbows Zach Randolph did, which may present a challenge to the Clippers to generate the muck on which they seem to thrive. But if they can prevent the Spurs from jumping out too far in front, L.A.'s toughness may keep Duncan from his almost-customary seat on the bench in the fourth quarter.
KEY MATCHUP
Tony Parker vs. Chris Paul. Paul will meet up with one of the few point guards in the game who can play him on equal footing. Paul finished third in the MVP voting; Parker was fifth. Paul ranked second this season in assist-to-turnover rate (4.38); Parker ranked seventh (3.03). Paul averaged 22.3 points and 8.7 assists in three games against the Spurs this season; Parker tallied 22.0 and 9.5 in two games vs. the Clippers. Unlike what Paul faced in the first round, Parker holds the keys to an offense more Ferrari than Ford -- a unit with 10 targets, including himself, who averaged at least nine points per game in the regular season.
But let's not forget that Paul is one of the few talents who can bend a game to his will. Even when dinged up, as he was in the latter stages of the Memphis series, Paul is capable of getting anywhere he wants on the floor -- either by quickness or force. As much as any player in the league, Paul is the Clippers' de facto coach, casting everyone into their optimal spots on the floor while getting in their ear. If there's one trouble spot for Paul, it's found in his (and the Clippers') tendency to cruise through the early stages of a game. That may make for spectacular 24-point fourth-quarter comebacks in the first round; it'll make for blowout losses in the second round.
X-FACTORS
Spurs: Tim Duncan. After a season in which he played the fewest minutes of his career, Duncan appears fresher for the postseason than he has in ages. And the Spurs will need him spry for this matchup against the explosive Blake Griffin, who will test Duncan's ability to keep up with him on defense. What Duncan has lost in quickness, he makes up in craft, working angles, referees and his mid-range jumper (shooting 47 percent) to still present an axis around which the Spurs' offense can revolve. Still a threat in the paint, Duncan is one of the primary reasons Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard are getting spacious looks from the three-point line. Against a Clippers team that played at one of the most deliberate paces in the game, Duncan's ability to produce will be critical at those times the Clippers are able to make the game a grind. And whatever points he can win from the referees will be just as crucial in keeping Griffin -- who averaged four fouls in three games against the Spurs this season -- grounded.
Clippers: Caron Butler. Against "three-averse" Memphis, the Clippers' three-point field-goal defense that ranked among the bottom four in the league was a footnote. Against San Antonio, which shot a league-best 39.3 percent from behind the arc, it's a grenade waiting to explode. Butler will be counted on to diffuse the threat, as he's sure to be matched up against the Spurs' deep pool of outside shooters. He doesn't need to stop them, much as he didn't stop Rudy Gay in the conference quarterfinals. But if he can at least make the Spurs' shooters work, make them volume scorers and less efficient ones, the Clips might be able to hang close enough in games to let Paul work his fourth-quarter magic.
BOTTOM LINE
The Spurs haven't lost since April 11. They've won the 14 games they've played in that span by an average of 18 points per game. They're the best-shooting team in the playoffs and have the stingiest field-goal defense.
On the other hand, the Clippers have Paul and Griffin. L.A.'s Big Two are going to need a lot of help stopping a team as deep, savvy and rested as the Spurs. Of course, they did just take down a Grizzlies team that stunned San Antonio last year in the first round. But these Spurs are different, sleeker, based around an offense that can deliver from any spot on the floor -- quickly. And rest assured, when the Clippers turn over the ball almost 15 times a game, they won't be bailed out by a team that coughs its up even more. Manu Ginobili and Parker don't take playoff gifts for granted; they nab the miscue and deliver a three that all but ends a game. And those two figure to end these games on the winning side more times than not. Spurs in four.


Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/paul_forrester/05/13/spurs.clippers.preview/index.html#ixzz1uo2vHgVb

[dbreiden83080]

Predicting a sweep is too much. I think 5 but maybe 6 if the rust is a problem for game 1.. Spurs are better IMO but Clips are very good..

[Wild Cobra Kai]

Clips are more athletic, but don't defend the P'n'R or the three point line much, if any better than Utah. The Spurs, with their top offense and top 10 defense, can make you crack if they get that one middling run of 8 or 10 points. You spend the rest of the game running uphill. It's demoralizing.

[T Park]

I'd say theyre good.

Their mediocre defense and propensity to turn the ball over keeps them at good from very good.

[mchammer]

http://www.nba.com/2012/news/features/fran_blinebury/05/13/spurs-clippers-preview/index.html

Clippers face uphill battle against Spurs' depth, experience

Posted May 13 2012 4:47PM
No shock of San Antonio getting hit in the mouth with another No. 8 over a No. 1 upset to ruin the summer. No May surprise this time. Unless you consider running into the Clippers in the conference semifinals, which doesn't happen often.
Now that the Spurs are fresh off their 4-0 sweep of the Jazz in the first round of the playoffs, there is no denying that they are the team to beat in the Western Conference. All of the parts of the puzzle are fitting together. All of the cogs in the machine are running smooth.
The Spurs are riding a 14-game winning streak into the conference semifinals, their last loss coming on April 11 vs. the Lakers. They have won 27 of their last 29 games and are 42-7 since Jan. 30.
"We are optimistic," Manu Ginobili said. "We had a few great additions late in the season to make us even better. Our defense is slowly improving. I think Boris (Diaw) is doing a great job, Tiago (Splitter) too. Stephen Jackson is putting a lot of character in that defense, getting some big boards.
"I think we are a little better. But the league is so tough and anybody can beat another team. We've got to stay humble and think only on the next opponent. We can't be thinking now about the Finals, because it wouldn't help."
The Spurs assume nothing and take care of all of the details. Tony Parker continued what coach Gregg Popovich has called the finest of his 11 NBA seasons by leading the way in the rout of the Jazz. Tim Duncan looks like's managed to shave at least five off his clock and looked a lot quicker and livelier than 36-year-old in dominating whenever he wanted in the paint. Ginobili is still seeking his rhythm after missing 32 games during the regular season, but he nailed a trio of clutch 3-pointers that finished off Utah in the Game 4 clincher and seems to be getting closer.
But what has made San Antonio so effective and so difficult to beat all season has been the depth of the lineup that allows Popovich to often play 10 different players by the end of the first quarter and can get 11 or 12 deep, even in the playoffs.
"Our depth has been a hallmark of this team all season long and I don't see any reason at this point why we would look to change something that's been working," said Popovich.
The Clippers are coming off their first playoff series win since 2006 and only their second in the past 36 years. Not that they didn't make things interesting by letting a 3-1 lead over the Grizzlies go all the way down to a Game 7. Now they are looking for Chris Paul to take them further.
"Everyone knows it's obviously the playoffs," coach Vinny Del Negro said. "Chris is so good at not only making plays for himself, but making the right play, which is more important at times and getting his teammates involved. He understands the moment. He's picking his spots when he needs to be aggressive offensively and when he needs to run the team a little bit more and get the ball to certain guys that maybe have it going a little bit, whether it's Blake (Griffin) in the post or Mo (Williams) on a flare or Randy (Foye) or whoever. That's what makes him a star."
"I don't think it's taught," said Kenyon Martin, an opponent for many years and now a teammate. "You just have to have it."
Paul has it. The Clippers have Paul. That's why they'll always have a chance in the final minutes of a close game and now why they finally are a real playoff team.
Five quick questions
Who wins the Chris Paul-Tony Parker showdown?
Far more of the burden is on Paul and yet he'll excel. But Parker will use all of his many teammates to come out on top.
Where's Manu?
He shot just 7-for-22 and scored 7, 4 and 6 points in the first three games against Utah. But he's contributing on the boards and with assists and is close to breaking out.
Who's on the spot for the Clippers?
Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Eric Bledsoe and Reggie Evans, if the spot happens to be the free throw line late in a game.
Who's made the Spurs even better in the playoffs?
Boris Diaw, the late season gift from Charlotte who now starts at center and is a perfect fit with his all-around skills.
How do you spell a Clippers' upset?
With two letters and a number: CP3
When the Spurs have the ball...
The Spurs want Tony Parker to push the ball up the floor in transition and break down opponents before they get set. Once they're in the half-court game, it's all about the pick-and-roll and Parker is becoming quite efficient at it. Gregg Popovich has done a transformation on offense that has turned the Spurs from starting each half-court possession with Tim Duncan in the low post to get Parker into the paint and then finding the open man when defenses collapse. The Spurs are as good as it gets to spacing the floor and having everyone in just the right spot to take advantage of open looks at the basket.
The Clippers will try to cut off penetration to the hoop with shot-blockers such as Griffin and Jordan. But that was Utah's plan in the first round, too, and those aggressive shot-blockers can be used and abused by head fakes.
When the Clippers have the ball...
Everything begins and ends with the ball in the hands of CP3 as he plays with it like a yoyo on the end of a string, goes anywhere and sets up just about anyone he wants on offense. With Paul running things in New Orleans in 2008, he kept a less talented Hornets team pushing the Spurs before they squeezed out a series win. For all the attention that is created by the "Lob City" hype with Griffin finishing Paul set-ups at the rim, one of the Clippers' other strengths is their 3-point shooting and that's how they topped the Spurs back on March 9 in San Antonio. On that night, the Clippers shot 14-for-27 on 3-pointers and Mo Williams nailed seven triples all by himself.
The Spurs will use a collective effort to stop up the middle against the off-the-charts-but-one-dimensional athleticism of Griffin. Nobody is better at scheming than Popovich. The other challenge will be to close out on L.A.'s crop of outside shooters -- Williams, Nick Young, Caron Butler -- who are much better than Utah.
In the clutch
It's happened mostly below the radar, but the leadership of the season has been taken over by Parker and he'll have the ball in his hands picking his spots when the games get late. He's got plenty of options with Duncan, Ginobili and a deep supporting cast. But this season, Parker is more apt to do it himself.
It's a simple goal, really, for the Clippers: Try to keep it close and then get Paul the ball to work his magic in the clutch. He has the best handle in the game, can get into the lane to finish or set up teammates and is the worst nightmare for any would-be defender.
Wild cards
There are X-factors lurking behind every bush in this Spurs lineup that is deeper and thicker than a rainforest. If it's not Danny Green or Gary Neal hitting jumpers, then rookie Kawhi Leonard is defending and rebounding. Tiago Splitter and Stephen Jackson bring energy off the bench in the middle and Matt Bonner brings a bucket of 3s.
Reggie Evans has managed to stick around in the league for such a long time because of his knack for getting on the inside of plays and under the skin of opponents. Somebody will have to give the Clippers a jolt of unexpected electricity to bring down the Spurs and Evans always has a full charge.
Prediction
The Spurs took the series 2-1 and L.A.'s only win came when the Clippers rained down a torrent of 3-pointers. It's a coaching mismatch with Vinny Del Negro running into his mentor. Another one that's short and sweet with the Spurs winning 4-1.
Fran Blinebury has covered the NBA since 1977. You can e-mail him here and follow him on twitter.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Turner Broadcasting.