Final Prediction - Spurs vs. Clippers Playoff Preview

[timvp]

As I've previously stated, I do think these Clippers pose some problems for the Spurs (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=197027). And I do think the Spurs are ripe for a letdown. However, looking closer at the Clippers, I've come to the conclusion that the way they beat the Grizzlies is simply not sustainable against the Spurs.

Casually watching the Clippers in the first round, one would probably think L.A. was playing stout defense. But that really wasn't the case. It was a mirage created a slow pace and the Grizzlies inability to make three-pointers.

The Clippers allowed the Grizzlies to score just 91.4 points per game, however the pace of that series was exceptionally low: 87.7 possessions per game. So while the Clippers D looked improved on first glance, there was definitely more to the story.

In the regular season, the Clippers were 18th in the league defensively, allowing 105.7 points per 100 possessions. Against the Grizzlies, the Clippers allowed 102.9 points per 100 possessions, which was still just ninth out of the 16 playoff teams in the first round. On a per-possession basis, Los Angeles didn't do anything drastically better defensively. Instead, the improvement can be directly linked to the Grizzlies shooting 24-for-83 (28.9%) from three-point range. Perimeter shooting was Memphis' main weakness heading into the postseason and it cost them dearly in the first round.

The Clippers weren't good at defending the three-point line in the regular season so it's unlikely they played much of a role in the Grizzlies ineptness. If you adjust the Clippers opponent three-point percentage in the first round to something more sustainable like 35%, their defensive efficiency would rise to 104.9 -- or right around the mark they posted in the regular season.

As we all know, the Spurs are a great three-point shooting team. The Clippers simply can't rely on the Spurs going cold from deep as the backbone of their defensive philosophy. San Antonio is more than capable of punishing teams who don't defend the three-point line. Memphis wasn't.

The other main reason why the Clippers advanced is they took advantage of the Grizzlies second glaring weakness: a lack of a bench. Memphis had only one decent bench option (O.J. Mayo) to go along with a group of subpar players. The Grizzlies bench was particularly horrible on the defensive end. The Clippers, on the other hand, have a fine bench unit.

When the two teams clashed, bench play ended up being a huge factor. The Grizzlies starters actually all posted positive plus/minus numbers for the series (ranging from Tony Allen's +34 to Mike Conley's +16). But those numbers were more than negated by the Clippers bench unit. Nick Young, Eric Bledsoe and Reggie Evans had the three highest plus/minus totals of the series at +49, +42 and +35, respectively.

Against the Spurs, there's no way the Clippers bench is going to have that type of success. The Spurs are at the very least equally as deep and are certainly much deeper than the Grizzlies.

The Clippers bench also hid the fact that Chris Paul didn't direct a very efficient offensive attack. In fact, when Paul was in the game against the Grizzlies, L.A. only scored 100.2 points per 100 possessions.

Add it up and the Clippers defense was aided by the Grizzlies not having three-point range and the Clippers offense relied on their bench to destroy the Grizzlies putrid bench. I just don't see a way that the Clippers can sustain any of that against the Spurs.

Factor in the very real possibility that a number of the Clippers will be slowed by injury (oh, and the fact that the Spurs ain't half bad themselves) and I'm tempted to predict another sweep. But I'm not going to quite go that far.

In a couple games, I think Paul is going to successfully slow the pace to a snail's crawl. In a walk-it-up affair, the Clippers have the pieces to hand the Spurs a loss. They can grab offensive rebounds in bunches, get hot from the outside and execute down the stretch while disrupting the Spurs pick-and-roll offense by switching on the screen and forcing San Antonio to shoot contested jumpers. I think it will all come together for the Clippers in one game and they'll snap the Spurs winning streak.

But that's as far as I'm going. The Spurs will defeat the Clippers in five games and advance to the 2012 Western Conference Finals. I can't put my finger on which game the Spurs will drop but I'm confident, as long as San Antonio stays healthy, it won't be more than one game.

In a couple of the contests, I think the Spurs will be able to blow the Clippers out of the water. When the Spurs are able to push the pace, the Clippers simply won't be able to hang.

You had your fun, Clipshow. Props on escaping the first round.

Now be prepared to be steamrolled.

Believe.



tl;dr: clippers were fortunate, spurs are really good, spurs will win

[ElNono]

The Clippers bench also hid the fact that Chris Paul didn't direct a very efficient offensive attack. In fact, when Paul was in the game against the Clippers, L.A. only scored 100.2 points per 100 possessions.

You mean the Grizzlies. Fix that, and we'll call it a wrap. :lol

[Borosai]

These guys are hurtin' for a squirtin'.

Bonner will be the series MVP.

[T Park]

The lore of Stephen Jackson will grow.

He'll be left open and I think defensively he'll come up huge.

[timvp]

You mean the Grizzlies. Fix that, and we'll call it a wrap. :lol

Thanks, bree.

[Spur|n|Austin]

The lore of Stephen Jackson will grow.

He'll be left open and I think defensively he'll come up huge.

His rebounding as well. I'm pumped. :ihit

[T Park]

Im gonna show more of my lack of BBall knowledge and wonder if it might be ok when Paul is out of the game to just zone the Clippers.

[Obstructed_View]

Yeah my take from that series is that neither team can play offense or defense. The Clippers just made some jumpers at opportune times and the Grizzlies went away from what should have won them the series. The Spurs need to make sure not to get lazy with rebounding and keep pushing the ball and they should be fine.

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

This thread is probably more realistic than the last one timvp put together. Still, I appreciate timvp trying to throw some small amount of cold water on some of the over confident fans with the previous one. People were expecting a title to be handed to them, and that's not only silly but completely beside the point of the journey to winning a title. Anyone who toiled during the 90s through all the disappointing teams, which, yes, sometimes were led by Vinny Del Negro in the backcourt, can very easily understand the great satisfaction in finally winning in 99 after all the turmoil it took to get there.

Having said that, the Clippers seem like they're limping into the second round and are longshots to prevail in a 7 game series. In addition, other than Paul a lot of their players sort of seem like idiots on the basketball court. Maybe that's because the Spurs have such a high team BBIQ right now that every other team seems simple minded and predictable in contrast. (And as a quick tangent, I can't think of a team this deep with so many well coached, intelligent team oriented players in a long time. The Clippers have a decent bench, but it's led by chuckers like Nick Young. Our Neal is a chucker too, fair enough, but he will submit to the team game when it is asked of him. I don't see VDN doing much coaching, or the players doing much listening.

I do believe that Paul will be able to set the pace while he's on the court (as timvp stated) but when he's on the bench and the Spurs second unit is out there I believe their superior focus and coaching and discipline will allow them to make the difference in the game, and ultimately, the series.

Last thought, with the more recent scrutiny on flopping in the media, I think that must help the Spurs and hurt the Clippers, for though Manu will flop with the best of them, his acting seems much more polished than the Clippers - it's like comparing De Niro to Ashton Kucher.

[Robz4000]

Now there's the timvp I know and love :lol

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

tl;dr: clippers were fortunate, spurs are really good, spurs will win

:tu the goods

[Fireball]

Hopefully the Spurs will look as sharp as the Thunder did last night ...

[jiggy_55]

I also predict Spurs in 5, hopefully they come out hot and rested like the Thunder did today rather than cold and rusty. If their rusty, I would not be shocked to see them lose a Game 1 and the series would go to 6.

[flipspursfan]

Spurs in 6. I predict the Clips' athleticism to be too much for the good guys in Staples.

[100%duncan]

You had your fun, Clipshow. Props on escaping the first round.

Now be prepared to be steamrolled.







'Bout damn time, LJ.

[silverblackfan]

Nice job of breaking down the clippers game again. I also think the Spurs can lose one game in this series, but it will take the Spurs losing their focus to do it. Game 4 would be my guess with plenty of home cooking by the refs. I am hoping to be wrong, because a sweep would set up an epic battle with OKC.

Spurs in 5.

[TampaDude]

spurs sweep

if they lose any game by less than 10 i will be disappointed in their lack of effort and focus

Lose??? :lol

[Old School 44]

Run these guys out of the gym!!!
They just came out of an emotional/physical series with the Griz.
Let Blake Griffin get a few monster jams (which can't be good for his injury) and take himself out of the game.

Come on Spurs fans, don't be afraid to say it.....SWEEP!!!

[MmP]

The only point where im concerned with these clippers is athletism, if we can match it and do our job defensevly we are ok. if not, prepare for a long battle.

[Keepin' it real]

Gary Neal's gonna make it rain 3s all over the LAC. Gonna give me that special feeling.

[Legacy]

That's the attitude right there, timvp! :clap

[dougp]

Honestly, the Clippers / Grizzlies series was one of the worst I've seen in awhile - neither team could score very consistently, and felt very underwhelming.

[DBMethos]

Great thread. Can't wait for the game to start.

[manufan10]

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Zj0s98UsGLk/TclF2jZektI/AAAAAAAAETc/pQEcBHIlaTI/s400/bee.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/30/OCR-A_char_Plus_Sign.svg

http://photo-dictionary.com/photofiles/list/3414/4541lilac_leaf.jpg

[Keepin' it real]

Honestly, the Clippers / Grizzlies series was one of the worst I've seen in awhile - neither team could score very consistently, and felt very underwhelming.

Funny, that was the criticism of the Spurs for so many years. Are you saying, in retrospect, that you think the Spurs were boring during their "defensive" years?

For me, LAC vs. Memphis was great, tough, hard-nosed basketball that was a joy to watch. I love to see teams compete like that. I miss that about the Spurs ... the defensive intensity.

[SpurinDallas]

I get the feeling the Clips are going to go into "just happy to be here" mode and not put up the same fight they did against Memphis.

God, this is going to be a long day

[Legacy]

God, this is going to be a long day


NO SHIT!! :madrun:hungry::madrun:hungry::madrun

[dougp]

Funny, that was the criticism of the Spurs for so many years. Are you saying, in retrospect, that you think the Spurs were boring during their "defensive" years?

For me, LAC vs. Memphis was great, tough, hard-nosed basketball that was a joy to watch. I love to see teams compete like that. I miss that about the Spurs ... the defensive intensity.

Dude, that series was NOT about defense, except maybe on the Grizzlies part - and that was as long as their starting 5 were on the court. Everything else was just poor shot selection.

[Obstructed_View]

Funny, that was the criticism of the Spurs for so many years. Are you saying, in retrospect, that you think the Spurs were boring during their "defensive" years?

For me, LAC vs. Memphis was great, tough, hard-nosed basketball that was a joy to watch. I love to see teams compete like that. I miss that about the Spurs ... the defensive intensity.

Inept offense on both sides has nothing to do with great defense. Sorry you can't tell the difference.

[hater]

If Spurs have a let down in game 1 or 2 due to rest. This is going 6 games. If not, this is a 5 game series.

[sa_butta]

Spurs should come out with alot of energy, just hope they are able to shake off the rust early. I think it is important to come out of the gate quick and show them we control the series. If they come out strong and get some momentum and confidence we could be in for a longer series than we anticipated.

[CavsSuperFan]

Spurs fans are taking the Clips too lightly…No way Stern allows the Clips to get swept…They could easily win one or two games in this series…

[bklynspursfan]

My biggest concern (Which is probably the Clipps) is trying to defend the P & R...

[Jimcs50]

I can't put my finger on which game the Spurs will drop but I'm confident, as long as San Antonio stays healthy, it won't be more than one game.


game 4, Spurs will be up 3-0, Pop will rest TD and Manu

[Warlord23]

My biggest concern (Which is probably the Clipps) is trying to defend the P & R...

You're somewhat right. This goes back to the Spurs-Hornets series when CP3 played alongside 2 capable bigs in Chandler and West. They'll make us choose between letting CP3 have an open mid-range jumper and letting Jordan/Blake roll to the rim. The difference however, is that David West had an accurate mid-range jumper.

When the primary big (e.g. TD) defending the P&R stepped out, and the other big stayed in the lane to prevent the roll, CP3 could pass out to West for an open jumper. The Clippers' best big man jump-shooter is KMart, and he's nowhere in the same league as David West (or Channing Frye, the Suns' stretch 4 who helped open up things for Nash). So while the Spurs won't be as ineffective defending the P&R, the Clippers' bigs are a tough rebounding threat. That is where the Spurs will need their wings to get into the paint to fight for rebounds once a shot goes up.

[bklynspursfan]

You're somewhat right. This goes back to the Spurs-Hornets series when CP3 played alongside 2 capable bigs in Chandler and West. They'll make us choose between letting CP3 have an open mid-range jumper and letting Jordan/Blake roll to the rim. The difference however, is that David West had an accurate mid-range jumper.

When the primary big (e.g. TD) defending the P&R stepped out, and the other big stayed in the lane to prevent the roll, CP3 could pass out to West for an open jumper. The Clippers' best big man jump-shooter is KMart, and he's nowhere in the same league as David West (or Channing Frye, the Suns' stretch 4 who helped open up things for Nash). So while the Spurs won't be as ineffective defending the P&R, the Clippers' bigs are a tough rebounding threat. That is where the Spurs will need their wings to get into the paint to fight for rebounds once a shot goes up.

Agreed. I could see K-Mart getting quality minutes. I'm fine with Blake shooting. Can't let them roll to the basket, cause that's usually an easy 2. Guys need to fight through screens, and as you said everyone has to go for the rebounds. Leonard/Jack can make a huge impact in that regard as our bigs will (should) be boxing and wrestling underneath keeping them off the boards

[Keepin' it real]

Dude, that series was NOT about defense, except maybe on the Grizzlies part - and that was as long as their starting 5 were on the court. Everything else was just poor shot selection.

Replace the word Grizzlies with the word Spurs, and you should get my point.



Inept offense on both sides has nothing to do with great defense. Sorry you can't tell the difference.

Tough and physical defense can lead to inept offense. Sorry you can't realize that.

[skin]

Spurs in 5

[ginobilized]

You are really thinking about this stuff timvp. Love that! I'm more aligned with this viewpoint than your last one, though I can see both sides. No guarantees.

Chris Paul runs an organized playground, but, Magic Johnson he is not and I don't see Kareem, Worthy, Scott or Cooper on this squad. I see some Rambises, Kupchaks, McAdoos and several discount versions of Jamaal Wilkes on this Clippers squad. Clips best chance is to make this a halfcourt dogfight and the Spurs will run them out of the gym in spurts. Flopping is not a viable playoff strategy, unfortunately, for flop city.

Looking forward to seeing some new Spurs defensive and offensive sets emerge in this series and even more cohesion. Spurs will be very tough for the Clips to prepare for. Pop will exploit this. Can't wait to see it, after the rust wears off.

Spurs in 5.

[temujin]

Spurs fans are taking the Clips too lightly…No way Stern allows the Clips to get swept…They could easily win one or two games in this series…

This.

[urunobili]

Spurs in 6...

[TacoCabanaFajitas]

Replace the word Grizzlies with the word Spurs, and you should get my point.

Tough and physical defense can lead to inept offense. Sorry you can't realize that.

You must not watch a lot of basketball. Clippers and Grizzlies ball movement was so stagnant and slow, and it had nothing to do with great defense. I can't even count how many times in that series that a player from either team went 1 on 1 for the entire shot clock, it was really bad offense.

[temujin]

1) Don't blow 25 points leads with 8' to go by forcing shots/overdribbling/passing to photographers (G1).
2) Don't have Rudy Gay shoot the game winning, last second shot (G3).
3) Keep the bigs involved and distributing (G1 4th, G3, G4).
4) Don't play zone when Williams and/or Young are in (G7).
5) No Haddadi or Arenas in 4th of G7.

6) Advance to WC Finals.

[Keepin' it real]

You must not watch a lot of basketball.

You're right, only 30+ years as a fan and 10 seasons as a referee, so in retrospect, I guess I haven't watched a lot of basketball. :lol

Please (seriously), if you don't know what you're talking about, just :stfu

[davidbowie]

damn now i want some taco cabana fajitas

[benefactor]

You're right, only 30+ years as a fan and 10 seasons as a referee, so in retrospect, I guess I haven't watched a lot of basketball. :lol

Please (seriously), if you don't know what you're talking about, just :stfu
You're a pretty shitty ref then tbh if you don't see what is pretty obvious to everyone else about that Grizz/Clips series.

[GrandeDavid]

But that's as far as I'm going. The Spurs will defeat the Clippers in five games and advance to the 2012 Western Conference Finals. I can't put my finger on which game the Spurs will drop but I'm confident, as long as San Antonio stays healthy, it won't be more than one game.

In a couple of the contests, I think the Spurs will be able to blow the Clippers out of the water. When the Spurs are able to push the pace, the Clippers simply won't be able to hang.

You had your fun, Clipshow. Props on escaping the first round.

Now be prepared to be steamrolled.

Believe.



tl;dr: clippers were fortunate, spurs are really good, spurs will win

I agree!

[sa_butta]

Clippers-Spurs Key Notes

- The team that wins Game 1 of a seven-game series goes on to win 78.2 percent of the time (337-94, including the 1st Round this year).

- This is their first-ever meeting in the postseason.

- The Spurs are 26-2 at home against the Clippers since drafting Tim Duncan. The .929 win percentage is tied for their third-best at home against any team over that span (27-0 vs Golden State Warriors; 14-0 vs Atlanta Hawks).

- To say these teams have differing levels of success in the postseason would be a drastic understatement. Despite being in the NBA for six fewer seasons, the Spurs have more NBA titles (four) than the Clippers have series wins (three). The Spurs have more than four times as many series wins (34) as the Clippers have playoff appearances (eight).

- Much of the focus will be on the matchup between Chris Paul (third in MVP voting) and Tony Parker (fifth in MVP voting). The two have faced off seven times in the postseason, with Parker winning four times. Paul has enjoyed the statistical advantage, averaging 23.7 points per game and 10.7 assists per game (19.4 PPG, 5.7 APG for Parker).

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/42830/rust-versus-rest-out-west

[DJB]

Spurs fans are taking the Clips too lightly…No way Stern allows the Clips to get swept…They could easily win one or two games in this series…

Did you not read OPs take?

[wildbill2u]

Clippers and Grizzlies was more like watching WWE Smackdown than BB. I really thought the Grizzlies would win that battle because they looked like the tougher of the two teams. It wa the great play of the Clipper bench in the last 4 minutes of game 7 that won the series for them.

But their bench was playing against the Memphis starters so you have to give the Clipper depth and quality some decent props and respect.

We play very smart basketball and should be able to prevail. In 6.

[Obstructed_View]

Tough and physical defense can lead to inept offense. Sorry you can't realize that.

Yes, it CAN, but inept offense doesn't automatically mean good defense. Sorry you can't realize that.

[TheSullyMonster]

You must not watch a lot of basketball. Clippers and Grizzlies ball movement was so stagnant and slow, and it had nothing to do with great defense. I can't even count how many times in that series that a player from either team went 1 on 1 for the entire shot clock, it was really bad offense.

dude, update your sig.:lol

[davidbowie]

spurs in 6

[davidbowie]

dude, update your sig.:lol

just caught that :rollin

[TacoCabanaFajitas]

dude, update your sig.:lol

I only post like twice a year tbh

[ALVAREZ6]

Honestly, the Clippers / Grizzlies series was one of the worst I've seen in awhile - neither team could score very consistently, and felt very underwhelming.

I had the same impression when I watching parts of a few games out of that series. I won't say it's the worst series I've seen in a while, there are always bad and boring series, but overall I thought neither team executed very well, something the Spurs surely do. Both teams often looked very sloppy, horrible shot selection and timing, dumb decision-making, etc. Just bad, inexperienced basketball imo.

I didn't care who won, either team is gonna get handled by the Spurs.

[ALVAREZ6]

http://sphotos.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/560374_331572760246682_124920027578624_780158_1196 965130_n.jpg

:lol


lol they all have the same white hands