Michael Barone in AEI: the illegal immigration problem is going away

[Winehole23]

The illegal immigration problem is going away.

That's the conclusion I draw from the latest report of the Pew Hispanic Center on Mexican immigration to the United States.

Pew's demographers have carefully combed through statistics compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau, the Department of Homeland Security and the Mexican government, and have come up with estimates of the flow of migrants from and back to Mexico. Their work seems to be as close to definitive as possible.

They conclude that from 2005 to 2010, some 1.39 million people came from Mexico to the United States and 1.37 million went from the U.S. to Mexico. "The largest wave of immigration in history from a single country to the United States," they write, "has come to a standstill."http://www.aei.org/article/society-and-culture/immigration/shrinking-problem-illegal-immigration-from-mexico/

[boutons_deux]

It was the housing bubble that sucked them in. Home builders, many of them Repugs, loved underpaying/not-paying illegal immigrants.

[Winehole23]

With the Mexican reservoir of potential illegals dried up, and with better border enforcement and increased use of the much improved e-Verify system in workplaces, the illegal population seems likely to decline.

The key immigration issue for the future is whether America, like our Anglosphere cousins Canada and Australia, will let in more high-skill immigrants.

[johnsmith]

Home builders, many of them Repugs,

:lol

[Wild Cobra]

It was the housing bubble that sucked them in. Home builders, many of them Repugs, loved underpaying/not-paying illegal immigrants.

LOL...

That's right Bot...

Keep plugin away at anything you can to blame "repugs."

[boutons_deux]

Sure, Repug politicians LOVE to beat up on illegal immigrants, but Repug businessmen hate not having them around to pick fruit and veg, build houses, dig ditches, etc.

Not true on the Dem side.

[RandomGuy]

With the Mexican reservoir of potential illegals dried up, and with better border enforcement and increased use of the much improved e-Verify system in workplaces, the illegal population seems likely to decline.

The key immigration issue for the future is whether America, like our Anglosphere cousins Canada and Australia, will let in more high-skill immigrants



That will reverse itself in short order if you get a stream of refugees fleeing the drug violence.

I think it may very well come to the point where we seriously have to consider acting as hosts to people literally fleeing for their lives to escape the violence.

[Winehole23]

possible

[boutons_deux]

"refugees fleeing the drug violence."

no

Besides less work in USA, illegal immigrants are not attempting to cross the border due to extreme violence on the MX side.

[TeyshaBlue]

"refugees fleeing the drug violence."

no

Besides less work in USA, illegal immigrants are not attempting to cross the border due to extreme violence on the MX side.

You lie. Already happening.

http://www.tucsonsentinel.com/nationworld/report/041312_mex_exiles_texas/mexicans-flee-drug-violence-refuge-us/

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/18/us/18border.html?pagewanted=all

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/19/us-usa-mexico-asylum-idUSTRE76I6P020110719

[boutons_deux]

You Lie, bitch

Mexicans legally immigrating to USA, esp wealthy ones with $100Ks to qualify for special visas for starting companies/hiring in USA, is completely different than illegals trying walk/sneak in through the drug war.

[TeyshaBlue]

I see you didn't read the links...again. :facepalm

[TeyshaBlue]

Sure, Repug politicians LOVE to beat up on illegal immigrants, but Repug businessmen hate not having them around to pick fruit and veg, build houses, dig ditches, etc.

Not true on the Dem side.

BTW...Utah says Shut the Fuck Up, bot.

http://www.npr.org/2011/03/18/134626178/utahs-new-immigration-law-a-model-for-america


gfy.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The immigration problem is systemic in laws that are not meant to be enforced and a resistance to those laws that does not look for changes to said rule of law.

lol amnesty

If unemployment trends plummet they will be back.

[Wild Cobra]

Sure, Repug politicians LOVE to beat up on illegal immigrants, but Repug businessmen hate not having them around to pick fruit and veg, build houses, dig ditches, etc.

Not true on the Dem side.
Why are the democrats better?

I heard an interesting election season fact today.

Three-quarters of this nations non-white governors are republican, and two-thirds of the female governors are republican.

Is this why democrats have to cry the loudest about diversity? To make people believe that they are more diverse?

[ElNono]

lol anecdotes...

First female democrat governor sworn in: Nellie Tayloe Ross (1925, Wyoming)
First female republican governor sworn in: Kay A. Orr (1987, Nevada)

[boutons_deux]

Why are the democrats better?

I heard an interesting election season fact today.

Three-quarters of this nations non-white governors are republican, and two-thirds of the female governors are republican.

Is this why democrats have to cry the loudest about diversity? To make people believe that they are more diverse?

Repugs, esp old white low education males and their politicians, not Dems, are the ones screaming and whining about illegal immigrants.

[TeyshaBlue]

Welcome to the Tautology Club.

[TeyshaBlue]

Why are the democrats better?

I heard an interesting election season fact today.

Three-quarters of this nations non-white governors are republican, and two-thirds of the female governors are republican.

Is this why democrats have to cry the loudest about diversity? To make people believe that they are more diverse?

How many does this add up to?

:rolleyes

[Wild Cobra]

Welcome to the Tautology Club.
LOL...

Good word that applies to the AGW crowd...

It's getting warmer... because of greenhouse gasses...

It's getting colder... because of greenhouse gasses...

[Wild Cobra]

How many does this add up to?

:rolleyes

Not many.

[Winehole23]

There's a different sort of drought (http://www.cnbc.com/id/47706164/) plaguing California, the nation's largest farm state. It's $38 billion agricultural sector is facing a scarcity of labor.

"This year is the worst it's been, ever," said Craig Underwood, who farms everything from strawberries to lemons to peppers, carrots, and turnips in Ventura County. Some crops aren't get picked this season due to a lack of workers.

"We just left them in the field," he said.

The Western Growers Association told CNBC its members are reporting a 20 percent drop in laborers this year. Stronger border controls are keeping workers from crossing into the U.S. illegally, and the current guest worker program is not providing enough bodies. (

"We have 100 fewer people this year," said Sergio Diaz, who provides workers under contract for growers. "We're having difficulty finding people to do this work."

The lack of workers is forcing farmers to pay more. In one of Underwood's fields, pickers are harvesting peppers for $9.25 a hour, or $5 a bucket, whichever is more. Craig Underwood said his workforce is aging and starting to retire, and no one is coming in to replace them.

"Migratory flows between Mexico and the United States have come to a halt," Carlos Gonzalez Gutierrez, consul general of Mexico in Sacramento, told a California farm bureau labor committee, according to AgAlert (http://www.agalert.com/story/?id=4467).


Growers of California's wine grapes are concerned there won't be enough pickers for this fall's harvest. Berry growers — among the highest paying — saw fewer field hands show up in the spring.

"Fruit that you should be picking is not being picked," said grower John Eiskamp.

Most pickers in California are not here legally, a fact of life for decades.

When asked if any local residents have come out to apply to work in the fields, Craig Underwood replied, "None. Absolutely none." He is even having trouble finding truck drivers and other semi-skilled labor for jobs that pay $12-$18 an hour. http://www.cnbc.com/id/48725145

[Winehole23]

likely more related to recessionary pressures than current immigration policy, but current policy does play in: interdiction/enforcement is at historic highs.

[Wild Cobra]

likely more related to recessionary pressures than current immigration policy, but current policy does play in: interdiction/enforcement is at historic highs.
There are plenty of people without jobs taking government money. make them work if they want to also stay on the take.

[Winehole23]

compelled labor? are we still living in the USA?

[Winehole23]

lol soi disant libertarians supporting forced labor

[Winehole23]

countervailing (http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/08/30/164240/obama-immigration-policy-brings.html)?

[Wild Cobra]

compelled labor? are we still living in the USA?
It's a trade.

Show you are willing to work for wealfare.

[boutons_deux]

It's a trade.

Show you are willing to work for wealfare.

There are plenty of WHITE, red state, Repug-voting, hyper-partriot, tea bagger bubbas on govt assistance, nearly half of the total. Why aren't they in the fields, orchards, slaughterhouses?

[Wild Cobra]

There are plenty of WHITE, red state, Repug-voting, hyper-partriot, tea bagger bubbas on govt assistance, nearly half of the total. Why aren't they in the fields, orchards, slaughterhouses?
I don't know. Why don't you ask them?

[boutons_deux]

Do Your Own Research

--WC

[ElNono]

:lol

[Winehole23]

Is mass migration from Mexico to the United States a thing of the past?


At least for the moment, it is. Last May, the Pew Hispanic Center, in a study based on U.S. and Mexican statistics, reported that net migration from Mexico to this country had fallen to zero from 2005 to 2010.






Pew said 20,000 more people moved to Mexico from the United States than from there to here in those years. That's a vivid contrast with the years 1995 to 2000, when net inflow from Mexico was 2.2 million people.


Because there was net Mexican immigration until 2007, when the housing market collapsed and the Great Recession began, it seems clear that there was net outmigration from 2007 to 2010, and that likely has continued in 2011 and 2012.


There's a widespread assumption that Mexican migration will resume when the U.S. economy starts growing robustly again. But I think there's reason to doubt that will be the case.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/12/10/mexican_migration_may_be_over_116375.html

[boutons_deux]

Battleground Poll: Most back path to citizenship

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground poll (http://www.politico.com/polls/politico-george-washington-university-battleground-poll.html) finds that 62 percent of those surveyed support an immigration reform proposal that would allow illegal or undocumented immigrants to earn citizenship over a period of several years. Thirty-five percent oppose it.

The national poll, conducted last week, finds more Republicans — 49 percent — support a path to citizenship than oppose it — 45 percent. Democrats favor this approach 3-to-1, 74 percent to 24 percent. And independents back it by a 26-point margin, 61 percent to 35 percent.

The poll reveals significantly greater overall support, 77 percent, for an immigration law that allows the children of illegal or undocumented immigrants to earn the right to stay here permanently if they complete a college degree or serve in the military. Just 19 percent oppose this key element of the so-called DREAM Act.

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/poll-most-back-path-to-citizenship-84826.html

[CosmicCowboy]

If housing ever kicks back into high gear there simply aren't enough skilled locals to pour the concrete, do the brick/rock/stucco work, or hang the sheetrock.

[Winehole23]

that could be awhile. when it happens, there's no guarantee Mexicans will emigrate en masse to do it. labor might have to come from elsewhere.

[CosmicCowboy]

Yeah, all the fine arts majors can pour the concrete.

[CosmicCowboy]

Finishing concrete level and smooth is kind of an art...:)

[Winehole23]

Once the American economy resumes its long-term growth path with full employment (it has not been on this path for the past 4 years), the economic pull from the US should return to where it had been before the economic crisis. However, the push from Mexico has been decreasing and should continue its downward path for the foreseeable future. One important cause is the sharp decline in Mexican birth rates during the past couple of decades. Not long ago Mexico was a country with high birth rates that produced many young adults who had trouble finding jobs. Now, the Mexican total fertility rate (TFR)- the number of children born to a typical woman over her lifetime- has plummeted to about 2.25. This rate is only a little above the population replacement rate of 2.1. Unlike in the past, the number of young people in Mexico will no longer be growing rapidly over time, so that the numbers looking for work in the Mexican labor market will be on the decline.


The push from Mexico has also diminished because its economy has been growing at a good clip during the past 9 years. Excluding the large drop in 2009, the growth rate in real GDP has been over 4% per year. Mexico’s growth rate after 2009 considerably exceeds the American rate of under 2%, which is remarkable since about 80% of all Mexican exports go to the depressed American economy. One consequence is that the gap between earnings in Mexico and the United States is narrowing. This clearly reduces the demand to immigrate to America, especially under the difficult circumstances illegal immigrants face.

http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/2013/03/the-decline-in-illegal-immigration-from-mexico-becker.html

[boutons_deux]

two other "important causes" are

1. drug violence along the MX border

2. increased US border control

which will probably remain constant as economics on either side move up or down.

[boutons_deux]

Sequestration cuts border patrol as predicted; Republican outrage ensues (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/03/06/1192024/-Sequestration-cuts-border-patrol-as-predicted-Republican-outrage-ensues)


http://s3.amazonaws.com/dk-production/images/3768/large/Brewer.png?1345299430

The sequester cuts that we all knew were coming are hitting customs and border protection in the ways we knew they would, and Republicans are freaking out. Border patrol agents will be furloughed and have overtime hours cut as their agency's funding is slashed by $500 million. That's because the sequester is an indiscriminate across-the-board kind of thing—that's how it was designed, and Republicans knew what was coming when they flatly refused to put things like corporate tax loopholes on the table in a bargain to avert it.

The border patrol agents union says these cuts will make things easier for smugglers; an expert points out, though, that since the border patrol is currently larger than it's ever been, the cuts will only roll things back to where they've been in recent years. What's undeniable is that the agents will lose a lot of pay.But despite the total lack of anything surprising in what's being cut by sequestration, to the Republican border paranoia crowd, it's time for OUTRAGE (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-06/sequester-cuts-aid-smugglers-border-patrol-union-says.html?alcmpid=politics):


[Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer's] spokesman, Matthew Benson, said the Border Patrol reductions would be “outrageous” and could put Arizonans at risk.“The White House approach to sequestration seems to be to create as much pain and public panic as possible,” Benson said in a telephone interview. “Any cut that impacts public safety should be a last resort.”

Joe Arpaio, elected to his sixth term as sheriff of Maricopa County, Arizona’s largest, as he faced a federal civil- rights lawsuit over immigration-related arrests, criticized the planned reduction.
“You shouldn’t take away resources when you still have a problem,” Arpaio, 80, said yesterday in an interview. “It doesn’t make sense.”


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/03/06/1192024/-Sequestration-cuts-border-patrol-as-predicted-Republican-outrage-ensues?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+dailykos%2Findex+%28Daily+Kos %29# (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/03/06/1192024/-Sequestration-cuts-border-patrol-as-predicted-Republican-outrage-ensues?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+dailykos%2Findex+%28Daily+Kos %29#)

:lol

[boutons_deux]

Top Republican Warns Of French People Illegally Crossing Mexican Border In South Texas (http://thinkprogress.org/immigration/2013/03/28/1787161/top-republican-warns-of-french-people-illegally-crossing-the-mexican-border-in-south-texas/)


http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/ap_cornyn_tppf_130111_wblog-300x168.jpg

“You gotta stop the flow of people coming across and my friends and your friends Edd who have places in South Texas tell me, as a matter a fact a guy told me last night, he said we’ve got people coming across our place speaking Chinese, French and basically all of the languages in the world, coming through and across our southern border,”

http://thinkprogress.org/immigration/2013/03/28/1787161/top-republican-warns-of-french-people-illegally-crossing-the-mexican-border-in-south-texas/

Mon Dieu! Sacre Bleu! Les chez eating surrender monkeys! Hope they be bringin some good wine and aged fromage!

TX Senators, what a fucking joke, as are the red neck, secessionist, macho-wanna-be bubbas who voted them in.