So is Facebook really worth $38 a share?

[mavs>spurs]

I'm pointing out what I see as a real trend and all you can do is troll and talk shit. I was right when I told y'all it would tank Monday, I was right months ago when I lol'ed the fuvk out if this idea if a "Facebook ipo," and I'm right now. First it was xanga, then MySpace, now Facebook. Social media comes and goes people won't be using Facebook forever that's a reasonable assumption. In my opinion Facebook has been gaining some negative perception for a while now and many I know have abandoned it already.

[ChumpDumper]

I'm pointing out what I see as a real trendIf it's a real trend, surely there is more than two articles from a year ago referring to the same article also from a year ago.

[mavs>spurs]

I think with a sample size of 500+ Facebook acquaintances it's a valid sample size bro. Of the 4 people I talk to most, 2 have already quit and the other 2 have severely curbed their use. It's irrational to think that people will always be on Facebook.

[mavs>spurs]

And even if they did, the other kicker is that their revenues aren't high enough to garner a 100 billion valuation and the growth rate is irrational especially considering they saw a big disappointment last quarter.

Facebook is a flop chump, you gonna argue with me on that? Me and dok called it this is what we study.

[MannyIsGod]

I think with a sample size of 500+ Facebook acquaintances it's a valid sample size bro. Of the 4 people I talk to most, 2 have already quit and the other 2 have severely curbed their use. It's irrational to think that people will always be on Facebook.

:lmao

What the hell kind of statistics did they teach you? You think your 500+ friends on Facebook (LOL @ that TBH) you have some kind of random and good sample size?

[Yonivore]

Facebook is a flop chump, you gonna argue with me on that? Me and dok called it this is what we study.
I don't know I'd call Facebook a flop. A social network used by hundreds of millions of people around the world can't be called a flop.

I would agree, however, it's not a lucrative business model. It's free to join and they make money off of ads no one clicks through.

[MannyIsGod]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/603401-facebook-has-a-growth-problem

This is how you do an analysis on Facebook's user numbers. While it obviously can't keep growing forever, with population growth and the fact that its not even in China yet, there is certainly a lot of room for growth.

[MannyIsGod]

I don't know I'd call Facebook a flop. A social network used by hundreds of millions of people around the world can't be called a flop.

I would agree, however, it's not a lucrative business model. It's free to join and they make money off of ads no one clicks through.

4 billion in revenue is not a lucrative business model?!!

Holy shit.

[MannyIsGod]

Facebook was overvalued at its IPO but that doesn't mean:

1) Its not going to continue to make a shitload of money
2) That is is just going to magically disappear for no reason.

[mavs>spurs]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/603401-facebook-has-a-growth-problem

This is how you do an analysis on Facebook's user numbers. While it obviously can't keep growing forever, with population growth and the fact that its not even in China yet, there is certainly a lot of room for growth.

It's not in china because their dictatorship doesn't and won't ever allow it. It's over valued because according to time value of money a company that makes 3.7 billion per isn't worth 100 billion

[MannyIsGod]

Sure, but being overvalued doesn't mean you're not still VERY valuable.

[coyotes_geek]

Even if FB can sustain and increase user growth, that doesn't guarantee that they'll be able to sustain revenue growth. Even with growth in their user base, FB still has two huge challenges that they're going to need to overcome.

1. The mobile version of FB is presently ad free, which to FB means revenue free. As far as advertisers are concerned if you're using FB on a mobile device you may as well not be using FB at all. As smart phones and tablets continue to infiltrate the population, the percentage of FB users who choose to access FB via a mobile device will also increase. This presents FB with a dilemma. Add ads to the mobile version and risk pissing off users, or leave the mobile version ad free and live with a decreasing percentage of users that generate ad revenue.

2. Not all FB users are created equal. For users to be valuable to advertisers, they have to have disposable income to buy products. Generally speaking, Americans have more disposable income than those in second & third world countries. But those second and third world countries are where FB's growth is concentrated. The number of users can go up, but that doesn't guarantee that the revenue per user they're getting now will stay the same. It will probably decrease.

[mavs>spurs]

^keep speaking truth just ignore chump dumper when he disagrees with you and spreads lies and misinformation

[MannyIsGod]

Number one is not true since simply by interacting through facebook you are giving the advertisers information which in and of itself is extremely valuable.

Number two is no different than other forms of ad driven revenue. Disposable income is increasing greatly in those countries as well. You have to remember that FB advertising is so targeted that its not like India users are seeing adds for American products.

In any event, I'm not arguing that they're worth the IPO valuation but I do think they are a very valuable company that is not going to simply die in 5 years.

[mavs>spurs]

In any event, I'm not arguing that they're worth the IPO valuation but I do think they are a very valuable company that is not going to simply die in 5 years.

valuable at the moment? sure. going to be around in 5 years? maybe, maybe not. what makes you so sure that the whole world is going to be on facebook for the rest of forever? a big part of a stocks value is it's ability to earn money into the foreseeable future. i'm not convinced that facebook will become a staple of human living from here on. people will get tired of it. people i know have already deleted theirs.

[hater]

tbh Facebook ads are very dissapointing. Looks like they pretty much are using the same ad engine as AltaVista used. Seriously? 100 billion dollars and you have the shittiest ad design in history?

Fuck them greedy bitches. Facebook will be a distant memory in 5 years.

[ChumpDumper]

^keep speaking truth just ignore chump dumper when he disagrees with you and spreads lies and misinformationAnd watch out for the drones!

[TeyshaBlue]

fucking troll drones at that!

[Goran Dragic]

fuk yo drone clown

[mavs>spurs]

fuk yo drone clown

[ChumpDumper]

Had m>s bothered to research anything more recent than one year ago :lol he would see that FB membership in North America went up after it went down, then down, then up again. Net result? About the same membership as before the drop he reported.

[mavs>spurs]

how is staying the same over a 1 year period considered growth? and how is that translating to revenue growth? as far as i know their revenue growth wasn't all that impressive last quarter.

[ChumpDumper]

how is staying the same over a 1 year period considered growth? and how is that translating to revenue growth? as far as i know their revenue growth wasn't all that impressive last quarter.You can't read.

lol as far as you know

lol two friends

[ChumpDumper]

dude, why are you on here arguing with me about facebook valuation in the first place?I never did.

lol you really can't read

The drones got to you.

[TDMVPDPOY]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/603401-facebook-has-a-growth-problem

This is how you do an analysis on Facebook's user numbers. While it obviously can't keep growing forever, with population growth and the fact that its not even in China yet, there is certainly a lot of room for growth.

china already has its own version of networking sites like weibo....so does that mean weibo is worth billions like fb? if it floated...

[ChumpDumper]

so then why do you nitpick on little shit?You post stupid shit. It's fun to point that out.

[Out of nowhere goods]

'umpdump tiptoeing through the tulips, pulling at daisies, and bringing the short answer pecking away make em bleed to death annoying bads par per etc

[ChumpDumper]

it wasn't stupid whenever i told yall months in advance not to buy facebook stock and predicted the massive tanking monday, before the previous friday afternoon even rolled around. call it stupid all you want dumbfuck, but there is no reason to assume that facebook will be around forever. that's the point i'm making, billions of people won't be religiously on facebook in 10 years. disagree or no?It's a straw man considering what I was actually talking about.

You're so sensitive lately.

[ChumpDumper]

so then grow some balls and clearly state what your beef is and why you feel a need to argue with me in the thread.Not really arguing tbh. Told you I was just pointing out stupid shit.

You never said why you are so sensitive.

[ChumpDumper]

what's stupid? be specific.

i have 8 friends online right now. 2 years ago, that number in the summer would have been 30 or 40. usage is down, check the numbers. this article is only from 6 months ago and backs my claim.lol personal anecdote


I don't know why you have to be such an asshole and then wonder why I respond to you harshly.You respond harshly most of the time anyway. You're just being more emo than usual.

Don't really care too much about fb as it is. Of course it was overvalued. Not my problem.

[ChumpDumper]

articles are not personal bud, actually read it and try again.Actually the author used a personal anecdote as well. :lol

[ChumpDumper]

Facebook may have run its course.

Of course, it’s too early to telllol definitive

[ChumpDumper]

And?

[ChumpDumper]

so whats your beef? agree or no?Don't really care.
guess well see what happens. i know what i got my money on.What money?

[mavs>spurs]

:lol you don't really care, you just wanted to pester me.

[ChumpDumper]

Pretty much.

You've been quite emo and paranoid lately -- an easy mark.

[spursncowboys]

so whats your beef? agree or no? guess well see what happens. i know what i got my money on.
His beef is with logic.

[ChumpDumper]

His beef is with logic.lol brothers in butthurt

[coyotes_geek]

Testing $30 today..........

[MannyIsGod]

Slower growth =! falling usage.

[RandomGuy]

In answer to the OP, which I'm sure others have gotten there;

Apparently not.

LOL shareholder lawsuits. I wonder if Zuckerberg will unfriend them...

[RandomGuy]

His beef is with logic.

Maybe that logic can explain gas prices without running away.

[boutons_deux]

After Facebook, More Fear of Stock Market

The excitement surrounding Facebook's initial public offering was enough for Alex Tsesis, a law professor, to give the stock market one more try. But after the company's stock encountered technical problems then sputtered for three days, he sold his few hundred shares for a $2,200 loss and vowed to end his equity gambles for good.

"I'm just extremely skeptical about the ability of a retail purchaser to be able to play on a level field in the market," said Mr. Tsesis, who is 45 and lives in Chicago. "I'm just trying to get out of stocks."

Mr. Tsesis is part of a growing retreat from the stock market, a trend that began before the Facebook debut. The portion of Americans invested in the stock market dropped this year to its lowest level since Gallup started asking, every two years, in 1998 - 53 percent said they were in the market in April, compared with a high of 67 percent in 2002 and 65 percent as recently as 2007, before the financial crisis. A Bankrate poll in April found that only 17 percent of respondents were more likely to invest in the stock market, even with the small amount of interest they earn on bank deposits.

The financial industry had hoped that Facebook, the highly anticipated and biggest-ever tech offering, would rekindle ordinary investors' excitement in stocks. Instead, first-day trading snags, a 16 percent decline in the new stock's price and suggestions that warnings were exchanged among professional investors about Facebook's prospects have stoked fears that the stock market may not be safe for everyone.

"This added gasoline to a fire that was already burning," said Craig Ferrantino, the president of the financial advisory Craig James Financial Services in Melville, N.Y. .

http://mobile.nytimes.com/article;jsessionid=147456110D609C0E80DF9D628CBA8C9 2.w5?a=955658&f=23

======

Y'all Muppets, as Wall St calls retail buyers of stocks, keep on hopin for a changin.

[CosmicCowboy]

Damn...down to $28.

[CosmicCowboy]

If anyone wants to get brave options are trading now.

[Wild Cobra]

If anyone wants to get brave options are trading now.
The price is too high. I'm not interested unless it drops to $19 with signs it will recover.

[Wild Cobra]

Nevermind.

Just read something that makes me not want to buy, even at $10.

[Wild Cobra]

One article has Facebook's actual value at $7.50 per share.

[boutons_deux]

Getting bearish on Facebook shares

In the first day for Facebook options, the bearish puts outnumbered calls by 1.26 to 1, said Brian Overby, a senior options analyst at online brokerage TradeKing of Florida. Facebook debuted as the second-most actively traded option behind Apple Inc. with 366,409 total contracts.

Put options grant investors the right to sell the stock at a predetermined price, while call options give owners the right to buy a stock at a preset price.

"It's giving people another way to short the stock, and you are seeing people jump on it," Overby said. "The options market can drive the actual stock price."

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-facebook-shares-20120530,0,258704.story

[cheguevara]

facebook stock fall drops Zuckadick off top 40 richest :lmao

Zuckerberg’s monetary worth was pegged at $14.7 billion Tuesday, down from $16.2 billion on May 25, Bloomberg reported. In that time, the price of shares dropped 9.6% to $28.84.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/money/facebook-stock-fall-knocks-mark-zuckerberg-top-40-richest-people-list-article-1.1086540#ixzz1wNARI0K5

[CosmicCowboy]

still dropping. Down to 27 today.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Damn im glad I got punched in the arm instead of shot in the face on this one


I'll buy back in at fifteen

[jack sommerset]

facebook stock fall drops Zuckadick off top 40 richest :lmao

Zuckerberg’s monetary worth was pegged at $14.7 billion Tuesday, down from $16.2 billion on May 25, Bloomberg reported. In that time, the price of shares dropped 9.6% to $28.84.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/money/facebook-stock-fall-knocks-mark-zuckerberg-top-40-richest-people-list-article-1.1086540#ixzz1wNARI0K5

I doubt he is losing any sleep over this. God bless

[Wild Cobra]

I doubt he is losing any sleep over this. God bless
I agree. He already got paid.

[LnGrrrR]

It's fun reading this thread after the fact. I'll have to look up more info on underwriters... unless someone wants to give me a quick down and dirty summary.

[LnGrrrR]

silly rabbit. how do you know it will ever settle at 15? how do you know it won't tank further if you bought at 15?

I'd stay away from the stock market if i didn't know whottt i was doing, which most of us including people who study the crap don't. Computer trading has fucked shit up.

This. I've got a mutual fund for retirement, but it pretty much invests in relatively stable companies (pepsis, walmarts, etc etc). At least, they were stable last time I checked. :lol

Plus I started that shit when the stock market bottomed out, so I shouldn't be down too bad.

[Wild Cobra]

It's fun reading this thread after the fact. I'll have to look up more info on underwriters... unless someone wants to give me a quick down and dirty summary.
I haven't a clue what to say. I have no idea how they could have been so wrong, unless it is either a symptom of our new education standards, or corruption.

[Wild Cobra]

This. I've got a mutual fund for retirement, but it pretty much invests in relatively stable companies (pepsis, walmarts, etc etc). At least, they were stable last time I checked. :lol

Plus I started that shit when the stock market bottomed out, so I shouldn't be down too bad.
Yep.

Unless you have the time to do some lengthy research, or are psychic, very few individual stocks are a safe way to invest. The only good ones are among those that pay out regular capital gains and/or dividends.

I agree. Stick with mutual finds. Most mutual find managers keep a sane balance to not go upside-down with them.

[cheguevara]

I haven't a clue what to say. I have no idea how they could have been so wrong, unless it is either a symptom of our new education standards, or corruption.

greed. It's all about greed.

they knew exactly what they were doing. Just trying to steal as much money as they can from those dumb morons before the next economic collapse.

like taking candy from a baby

[TDMVPDPOY]

alot of IPOs have been postponed till next year man, be stupid to be floating anything in this climate of austerity and teh financial institutions

short term if you wanna make quick trades and money, then should keep an eye out for good stocks....the best stocks are mainly shit ppl really need and companys that hold a fkn monopoly for something...

have u check germanys latest govt bonds offering...lmao they keep ur money for free with no % on deposit, other words negative bonds...

[coyotes_geek]

keep an eye out for good stocks....the best stocks are mainly shit ppl really need and companys that hold a fkn monopoly for something...

:tu

Yep. Good time to stay defensive and just hunker down in blue chip dividend payers. IMHO at least........

[ChumpDumper]

greed. It's all about greed.

they knew exactly what they were doing. Just trying to steal as much money as they can from those dumb morons before the next economic collapse.

like taking candy from a babySo they "stole" as much money as they could from people who willingly bought their stock even with all the valuation questions, then planned on losing 25% of their new-found wealth in a couple of weeks, and another 6% of the remainder so far today?

I'd say they didn't know exactly what they were doing.

[cheguevara]

So they "stole" as much money as they could from people who willingly bought their stock even with all the valuation questions, then planned on losing 25% of their new-found wealth in a couple of weeks, and another 6% of the remainder so far today?

I'd say they didn't know exactly what they were doing.

LOL "losing"

they didn't lose shit. They made 100 billion out of thin air and then the 25% you claim they "lost" was just that, thin air.

they still keeping 75% of 100 billion and will be cashing out most of it.

[ChumpDumper]

LOL "losing"

they didn't lose shit. They made 100 billion out of thin air and then the 25% you claim they "lost" was just that, thin air.

they still keeping 75% of 100 billion and will be cashing out most of it.lol thin air

Why do you hate the free market and entrepreneurs?

[cheguevara]

:lol entrepreneurs

the big fish that cheated the retail investors even given inside information?

[cheguevara]

like I said, the robbers will cash in regardless:

Facebook already unleashed millions of shares to wary investors. Now the technology giant's early investors are about to see if they can force-feed millions more.
Starting in just a few months, select insiders and early investors in Facebook will be free to sell their shares as the so-called lock-up period expires. Some fear the flood of stock available for trading could further inundate investors and water down Facebook's share price, already 26% below the $38 initial public offering price. Facebook fell 65 cents Wednesday to $28.19.

http://www.cio-today.com/news/Millions-More-Facebook-Shares-Ahead/story.xhtml?story_id=0010003BPX2B

[ChumpDumper]

:lol entrepreneurs

the big fish that cheated the retail investors even given inside information?Why do you hate investor risk and capitalism?

[cheguevara]

Why do you hate investor risk and capitalism?

that boat sailed a long time ago.

[ChumpDumper]

that boat sailed a long time ago.That's a bullshit throwaway line from a person who never knows what he's talking about.

[cheguevara]

:lmao calling todays US Economic System, Capitalism

I'm sure you leave cookies and milk for Santa too :rollin

[CosmicCowboy]

LOL "losing"

they didn't lose shit. They made 100 billion out of thin air and then the 25% you claim they "lost" was just that, thin air.

they still keeping 75% of 100 billion and will be cashing out most of it.

They didn't sell 100 Billion of stock. Not even close.

[ChumpDumper]

:lmao calling todays US Economic System, CapitalismYou never explain what you mean what you spout bullshit like that.

Explain.

[cheguevara]

They didn't sell 100 Billion of stock. Not even close.

The valuation at 100 billion directly affected the share price which in turn valuated the initial big investors shares. Greed is what caused this IMO because they wanted the biggest cake possible to start with.

When they start cashing out they will be taking real money and leaving air filled shares.

[CosmicCowboy]

They sold 180 million shares. Do the math.

[ChumpDumper]

They sold 180 million shares. Do the math.He won't.

[Wild Cobra]

LOL "losing"

they didn't lose shit. They made 100 billion out of thin air and then the 25% you claim they "lost" was just that, thin air.

they still keeping 75% of 100 billion and will be cashing out most of it.
Yep.

[Wild Cobra]

facebook the corp that is, but as far as zuckerburg and them personally, yeah the value of their holdings are declining every day. when are they allowed to sell it?
Sure, the value of their holding, but how much cash did they get by selling the initial stocks?

That cash doesn't change value, and they didn't have it before the stock sales.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

facebook the corp that is, but as far as zuckerburg and them personally, yeah the value of their holdings are declining every day. when are they allowed to sell it?
Whenever the lockup period is over.

[Wild Cobra]

dude, zuckerberg and them personally don't have access to the cash raised by the IPO. that became property of facebook CORPORATION, now it's own separate legal entity. that cash is co-owned by each and every individual shareholder.
OK, but he still has cash he didn't have before if he sells it.

What is the number? He has 28% of the stock, I think.

I wonder if this would have gone public if he had controlling interest?

[Wild Cobra]

With an actual stock value estimated by assets of around $7.50, he is a winner where ever the price settles at.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

OK, but he still has cash he didn't have before if he sells it.
Yes, and none of that cash would have been raised through the IPO. He could have privately sold shares before the IPO.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

With an actual stock value estimated by assets of around $7.50, he is a winner where ever the price settles at.
:lmao the stock's book value isn't relevant here. Those shares had a market value well above $7.50 before the IPO.

[Wild Cobra]

:lmao the stock's book value isn't relevant here. Those shares had a market value well above $7.50 before the IPO.

True. Profit potential is a factor. I was just surprised when I read that all it was worth at that level.

[LnGrrrR]

The valuation at 100 billion directly affected the share price which in turn valuated the initial big investors shares. Greed is what caused this IMO because they wanted the biggest cake possible to start with.

When they start cashing out they will be taking real money and leaving air filled shares.

If you're dumb enough to believe the people who are SELLING the stock point blank, you deserve to get fleeced. "Hey, Facebook is going to be worth 1 billion one day! Get on the bandwagon now!" If you get suckered, that's your fault. Stocks are a risk.

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao WC found a new topic to be wrong about. So fucking good.

[Drachen]

Sure, the value of their holding, but how much cash did they get by selling the initial stocks?

That cash doesn't change value, and they didn't have it before the stock sales.

I believe that I read that FB made 20 B off the ipo

[CosmicCowboy]

ya'll know the way an IPO works right? usually the way it works is they sell those shares to the underwriter at a discount, who turns around and sells it for slightly more. facebook should have gotten paid no matter what imo, the losses would fall on the underwriters.

You are wrong.

[CosmicCowboy]

I believe that I read that FB made 20 B off the ipo

Whoever wrote that isn't very good at math.

[CosmicCowboy]

since y'all can't seem to do it I'll do it for you.

They sold 180 million shares.

If they got $42 for every single one (which they didn't) that would be a hair over 7 1/2 billion. ( 7.56 to be exact)

[Wild Cobra]

:lmao WC found a new topic to be wrong about. So fucking good.
Stocks at this level aren't my thing, so yes, I may be wrong. I find your grade school attitude of making fun of me whenever you can beyond juvenile.

[CosmicCowboy]

enlighten me, great one :lol

The underwriters are paid a (big) fee for the IPO. Big funds and brokers ask for an allocation of shares for their clients (Merrill Lynch, E-Trade, etc.) and the underwriter doles them out to the individual brokerages to sell to customers. The underwriter is not obligated to buy the shares of the IPO if no one wants them.

In the case of Facebook the underwriters did buy a lot of shares just to support the $38 price point the first day but they weren't legally obligated to do so. It was pride but also good PR/business. If they hadn't the next company that went public probably wouldn't use an underwriter that wouldn't support the opening price.

[CosmicCowboy]

That is of course is an oversimplification. Some IPO's have been cancelled at the last second if the underwriter detected that there wasn't enough demand at the set price point.

[coyotes_geek]

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The IPO market is settling into a deep freeze following Facebook's troubled initial public offering two weeks ago.

"Facebook alone froze the pipeline. It was done so poorly by the underwriters, and there had been so much hype around this deal that it's produced so much angst and fear about the IPO market," said Scott Sweet, managing director of IPO Boutique.


In the Facebook blamegame, lead underwriter Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) has come under attack for overvaluing the stock, which is now trading nearly 29% below its IPO price.

New companies are now worried that underwriters may significantly underprice their shares to simply get investors interested in this environment, according to several experts.

link (http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/04/investing/ipo-freeze/index.htm?iid=HP_LN)

[coyotes_geek]

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The IPO market is settling into a deep freeze following Facebook's troubled initial public offering two weeks ago.

"Facebook alone froze the pipeline. It was done so poorly by the underwriters, and there had been so much hype around this deal that it's produced so much angst and fear about the IPO market," said Scott Sweet, managing director of IPO Boutique.


In the Facebook blamegame, lead underwriter Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) has come under attack for overvaluing the stock, which is now trading nearly 29% below its IPO price.

New companies are now worried that underwriters may significantly underprice their shares to simply get investors interested in this environment, according to several experts.

link (http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/04/investing/ipo-freeze/index.htm?iid=HP_LN)

[Goran Dragic]

:lol new low today
:lol down over 30% since IPO

[Wild Cobra]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't a large number of IPO's settle lower then their starting price? Isn't it the nature of the game?

[Goran Dragic]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't a large number of IPO's settle lower then their starting price? Isn't it the nature of the game?
In some IPOs the price shoots up initially with the hype then shoots back down. The Zillow IPO last year is an example of this.

Immediately tanking from the get go like this is rare and means someone fucked up valuing shares.

[TDMVPDPOY]

In some IPOs the price shoots up initially with the hype then shoots back down. The Zillow IPO last year is an example of this.

Immediately tanking from the get go like this is rare and means someone fucked up valuing shares.

IPOS dont hurt if you receive them free out of nothing or can always deferred payments for bought shares, then again these clowns can just offset the losses CGT....i once had free shares that jumped to $45 on openning day, then slowly crawling down to $4 in 15 years....:bang

the only companies that are immune to he up and downs when ur looking at a yield perspective are stupid monopoly companies who get alot of govt protection

[jack sommerset]

I find it fascinating Facebook is already being sued by stockholders. God bless

[Wild Cobra]

I find it fascinating Facebook is already being sued by stockholders. God bless
I didn't read the disclosure that accompanied the purchase. Think they have a case? There is no guarantee for stocks.

[Wild Cobra]

:lol so we had a discussion about facebook stock today in my finance class. my professor who is a phd and averages a 20% return on the market every year for the past 20 years and worked as a trader in the past says that it should be worth somewhere between 8 and 20 dollars :rollin

he wasn't sure specifically because he doesn't care about facebook, but did manage to make a little money off the ipo and got out as quickly as possible
My instinct first told me that bottom fishing for it was good at $19. Then I read the article that their assets are only worth $7.50.

Alex... I'll take bottom fishing for $15.

I agree... that's midway between his range. But what do I know about valuing stocks... that's just a wild ass guess tempered with instinct.

[mavs>spurs]

The underwriters are paid a (big) fee for the IPO. Big funds and brokers ask for an allocation of shares for their clients (Merrill Lynch, E-Trade, etc.) and the underwriter doles them out to the individual brokerages to sell to customers. The underwriter is not obligated to buy the shares of the IPO if no one wants them.

In the case of Facebook the underwriters did buy a lot of shares just to support the $38 price point the first day but they weren't legally obligated to do so. It was pride but also good PR/business. If they hadn't the next company that went public probably wouldn't use an underwriter that wouldn't support the opening price.

if the underwriters simply get a fee and don't actually take possession of and resell the shares, then why did UBS lose 350 million trying to unload shares?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47739332

[CosmicCowboy]

if the underwriters simply get a fee and don't actually take possession of and resell the shares, then why did UBS lose 350 million trying to unload shares?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47739332

If you would go back and read the earlier posts in the first few pages I already explained. It was pride and good PR...as the underwriter they felt obligated to support the $38 floor the first day. Underwriting is big business for thee guys...if they hadn't supported the stock price it would have killed their reputation and their underwriting business.

BTW, UBS was not the underwriter. They bought the shares...now claiming they bought them "accidentally" by repeating the buy order because they didn't get confirmation of previous buy orders being filled.

[Wild Cobra]

I wonder how many people listened to Sam Hamadeh on the 17th?

Confirmed: Facebook sets $38 share price for largest tech IPO in U.S. history (http://venturebeat.com/2012/05/17/facebook-ipo-starting-price/)

At $38 a share, Facebook is likely an excellent buy for the investor who can flip her shares as the stock initially pops on the public market. But does the $38 price and a $104 billion valuation accurately reflect Facebook’s fair value?

Not a chance, PrivCo chief executive Sam Hamadeh told VentureBeat earlier. He said the initial offering price may be a minimal risk for those who want to turn a quick profit, but long-term investors should be wary. A backslide is inevitable, he said.

PrivCo, which tracks the financial data of private companies, believes that Facebook’s fair value rests between $24 and $25 a share. The company arrived at these numbers with two different methods: using enterprise value to revenue multiples (based on comparable public companies) and a discounted cash flow calculation that modeled out the next four years of Facebook’s costs, revenues, and net incomes.

Hamadeh predicts that, following several events he expects in the coming year, Facebook’s stock price will fall closer to this $25 “fair value” by year’s end.

One such event: a missed earnings report. Facebook will disappoint investors when it reports its second-quarter and third-quarter 2012 earnings, Hamadeh predicted. “The projections that people have for this company are so inflated at this point, Facebook can’t help but miss,” he said.

“After it returns to fair value, then the stock will grow as the company grows,” Hamadeh said. “It could take two or three years to get back to its IPO price.”

[coyotes_geek]

Bump. Facebook earnings tomorrow. Could get ugly. ZNGA just announced and they missed badly. FB already taking a pretty big hit in after hours trading as collateral damage.

[TeyshaBlue]

Isn't FB preparing some kind of settlement for the traders that got trapped @ $40 while the stock tanked but due to technical errors couldn't unload it?

[TeyshaBlue]

Oh, that was NASDAQ offering up the settlement.

http://allfacebook.com/nasdaq-greifeld-definitive_b95475

[MannyIsGod]

Looks like they made way more money than was expected.

[baseline bum]

Looks like they made way more money than was expected.

LOL, still drops $2.50 today.

[baseline bum]

Oops, make it almost $5.50 so far counting after hours trading.

[Spurminator]

Almost 20%... Ouch.

Worse news for Zynga.

[vy65]

They lost money

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebook-posts-quarterly-loss-as-costs-rise-2012-07-26?dist=afterbell

[coyotes_geek]

Revenue looked okay, but they still need to figure out how they're going to make money off of mobile users. Valuation on the stock is still horribly out of whack though.

[MannyIsGod]

SMH they LOST money? CNN fails again?

[coyotes_geek]

CNN may have just been reporting that revenues increased, which is a true statement.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

Down close to 15% since yesterday's close :lol

Their P/E ratio is at 57 which is still pretty high. IMO their P/E should be around 30.

[Wild Cobra]

How is my "bottom fishing for $15" looking?

[Wild Cobra]

i really wouldn't know man, i'm not the one to ask about that. my gut feeling is that facebook isn't worth shit i mean the company can't even turn a profit. ad revenues can only generate you so much whenever people ignore those things (people go on facebook to chat or just check their stuff and log right off) and facebook usage is on the decline. if the market ever wises up to how overvalued facebook is and it makes it's way down to 15 it might not stop there. i'm just staying away from facebook because it's too volatile personally, except for a few spot instances like yesterday. anyone could have guess ahead of time that the earnings would be disappointing. the market is just too damn overly optimistic on facebook in my opinion.
I haven't watched or read enough details to put money into it, but between it's actual asset value, and normal PE ratio's, I think it will bottom at $15 before a stable company is formed, then top out at around $20.

[mercos]

I don't like Facebook as an investment in the long run. I don't think it is a brand that will last. Their management is sub par. They still have not transitioned well to mobile, and they are not making enough money on the users they already have. They also have to compete against Google, who can easily outlast them as Search is their main business, and business is good.

[coyotes_geek]

Facebook hits new low as IPO lock up ends (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/facebook-hits-low-ipo-lock-143200785.html)


Shares of Facebook are plunging to all-time lows after the expiration of a lock-up period that has provided early investors and insiders with an opportunity to exit.

The stock fell 7 percent, or $1.49, to $19.71 in Thursday morning trading.


In all, 271 million shares will become eligible for sale Thursday, on top of the 421 million already trading.

[Wild Cobra]

How is my "bottom fishing for $15" looking?
Out of shits and grins, I'll say $15.38.

[velik_m]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-16/facebook-freeing-60-percent-more-shares-seen-weighing-on-stock.html

[coyotes_geek]

Out of shits and grins, I'll say $15.38.

I dunno. I think FB might tread water here in the 18-22 range until the next earnings release.

[Wild Cobra]

I dunno. I think FB might tread water here in the 18-22 range until the next earnings release.
And to you think the next earnings release will be better?

I don't.

Give my prediction till just after the quarter ending in June next year.

[coyotes_geek]

hard to say. last quarter they had a one time charge that meant the difference between profit and loss, so unless they've got another one time charge lined up they should be profitable this quarter. of course if they're not "profitable enough" to make the big fish happy then $15 or lower is still easily doable.

[coyotes_geek]

didn't bother bumping this thread to post it, but the other day i read that FB admitted that about 80 million of their accounts are fake.

[LnGrrrR]

Hey Teysha, are you glad you sold early while you could? :D

[mavs>spurs]

dump all stocks and invest in lead and gold

[coyotes_geek]

Hey Teysha, are you glad you sold early while you could? :D

He's one of the few people who has actually made money on FB's stock. He must be an evil 1%'er! :devil

[TeyshaBlue]

Hey Teysha, are you glad you sold early while you could? :D

That one has a silver star beside it in The Book Of Stupid Shit I've Done.:lol

[TeyshaBlue]

And yes, it's a multiple book collection.:depressed

[LnGrrrR]

That one has a silver star beside it in The Book Of Stupid Shit I've Done.:lol

Think of it this way... it could've become the new title of your book if you held onto it. :D

"Keeping Facebook Stock: The Book of Stupid Shit I've Done"

Has a nice ring to it :lol

[Wild Cobra]

hard to say. last quarter they had a one time charge that meant the difference between profit and loss, so unless they've got another one time charge lined up they should be profitable this quarter. of course if they're not "profitable enough" to make the big fish happy then $15 or lower is still easily doable.
Well, I expect a profit for Christmas advertisement. This will boost the unsuspecting investors to buy and raise prices. I predict they will be disappointed after that as the next quarters will drop again. I believe the stocks value will then trade around the low range I speak of.

Right now might be a good time to buy, and hold till after next quarter.

[ChumpDumper]

dump all stocks and invest in lead and goldThrowaway Alex Jones line.

[jack sommerset]

Throwaway Alex Jones line.

And for you, one post closer to your 70,000. I'm guessing 48 hours away, maybe less! God bless

[CosmicCowboy]

All those guys that can now sell stock from their options are going to owe taxes on it whether they sell or not. I suspect they are all gonna dump the shit out of it as soon as they can.

[Venti Quattro]

:lmao :lmao Faceb:lol:lolk

[coyotes_geek]

I'll say this for Facebook, at least they're not Zynga or Groupon.

lol social media stocks

[boutons_deux]

The Man Behind Facebook's I.P.O. Debacle


http://mobile.nytimes.com/2012/09/03/blogs/david-ebersman-the-man-behind-facebooks-i-p-o-debacle.xml;jsessionid=E4CF350569D393D4030A225A623 66065?f=23

[coyotes_geek]

Meh. Plenty of blame to go around. Ebersman wasn't the one fueling the hype, nor was he the only one who got caught up in it. To try and pin it all on him is an over simplification.

BTW, FB down to $17.60 as I type this....

[coyotes_geek]

That being said, looks like Forbes agrees (http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2012/09/04/why-sorkin-is-right-about-ebersman-blowing-the-ipo-and-what-that-says-about-zuckerberg/?partner=yahootix) with the NYT and disagrees with me.

[TeyshaBlue]

$45 and change. Wow.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/11/us-facebook-shares-idUSBRE98A17W20130911

[MannyIsGod]

Not bad. Just took them a year and change to get back there.

[Wild Cobra]

Anyone know what happened for their sudden upward spike in July? Seems odd to me.

[Th'Pusher]

Anyone know what happened for their sudden upward spike in July? Seems odd to me.
Earnings report. Super strange.

[MannyIsGod]

I believe it has to do with monetizing the mobile services. The advertising directed at me via google and facebook has also gotten much better. I got a 75% off coupon for some glasses from GlassesUSA when I started shopping for a new pair, recently.

[velik_m]

Twitter Files for IPO

The long-awaited day has come.

Twitter, the 200 million user microblogging service, has filed for its initial public offering. Fittingly, the only public acknowledgement came in the form of a simple tweet.

“We’ve confidentially submitted an S-1 to the SEC for a planned IPO,” the company said in a tweet on Thursday. “This Tweet does not constitute an offer of any securities for sale.”

A Twitter spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment. (Update: A Twitter spokesperson confirmed that the tweet is accurate.)

Twitter’s disclosure of its filing is a spin on a new “secret” IPO process made possible by the recent JOBS act, which gives companies the ability to make their initial filings with the SEC without public scrutiny.

Assuming Twitter does eventually decide to sell shares to the public, it will have to disclose financial documents to the rest of world. In the meantime, the company and its bankers can communicate with the SEC in private.

The fact that Twitter is taking advantage of a JOBS filing means that the company’s annual revenue is less than $1 billion, since anyone above that threshold can’t use that process. “Secret” IPOs have been popular throughout 2013, though this is the first time we’ve seen a company acknowledge the initial S-1 filing in public.

One major benefit to filing confidentially is that if Twitter does have any issues to hash out with the SEC early on in the process, we won’t get to see that particular sausage get made.

If, for instance, Groupon had been able to use the confidential process, investors wouldn’t have watched the back and forth over a novel accounting method that Groupon initially wanted to use and eventually abandoned.

In hindsight, the timing of Twitter’s filing has been foreshadowed by its actions. On Monday, the company made its biggest acquisition to date by buying MoPub, the mobile ad exchange startup, in a deal primarily composed of Twitter stock. On that same day, CEO Dick Costolo appeared at TechCrunch’s Disrupt conference and made a speech that was notable because it contained almost no information about his company.

http://allthingsd.com/20130912/twitter-files-for-ipo/?mod=atdtweet