Why I Believe - Spurs vs. Thunder Playoff Preview

[timvp]

Going into the much-ballyhooed 2012 Western Conference Finals, the Spurs are considered the favorites. While San Antonio is undoubtedly the hotter team over the last couple months, do they deserve to be the favorites over the Thunder? Yes, I believe they do.

Here are the top eight reasons why I believe:

8. Uncle Mo
While it can be argued how much momentum matters in the playoffs (if it matters at all), my opinion is simple: Momentum can't hurt. And that's especially true with how well the Spurs have been playing lately. An 18-game winning streak and winning 29 of their previous 31 games can't -- and shouldn't -- be ignored.

During that 29-2 run, the Spurs have outscored their opponents by 13.2 points per game. Over the same stretch, the Thunder are 21-10 with an average margin of a 6.6 points -- or exactly half of San Antonio's margin.

Many pundits may point to Oklahoma City's experience and success in close games, especially in the first two rounds of the playoffs. However, there's one thing better than being a team that is great in close games: Being a team that routinely blows out the competition. Winning close games always requires a certain amount of luck, while there is nothing lucky about smashing the opposition.

7. OKC's Lineup Quandary
The Thunder have a set rotation that they've utilized over most of the last two seasons. That rotation features Thabo Sefolosha in the starting lineup and James Harden coming off the bench -- even though Harden is clearly the better player. This alignment usually works well for Oklahoma City because it allows Sefolosha, by far the team's best perimeter defender, to lockup the other team's best offensive swingman at the outset.

But there's one glaring problem with that strategy in this series: San Antonio's best swingman, Manu Ginobili, comes off the bench. To begin games, what will Sefolosha's purpose be on defense? He'd be overkill against Danny Green or Kawhi Leonard. Perhaps the Thunder will put him on Parker ... but that cross matchup would probably just make the Spurs even deadlier in transition.

Green and Leonard, like Sefolosha, are primarily defensive players. However, they are both good enough offensively to be assets on that end on most nights. Sefolosha, on the other hand, is a much more offensively-challenged player than either Green or Leonard, to put it nicely. Thus, if Sefolosha isn't serving a purpose on defense, it'll be difficult for the Thunder to justify starting him.

A solution for OKC could be to move Sefolosha to the bench. And while that may very well happen, the alteration of a well-oiled rotation probably won't be seamless for the young squad.

6. Threes as Weaponry
No matter how you slice it, the Spurs are superior from beyond the three-point line. While the Thunder's shooting from downtown should be classified as above average, the Spurs are elite. During these playoffs, the disparity between the two teams has widened. In the Mavericks and Lakers, the Thunder went against two teams who are weak at defending against three-pointers, yet OKC is shooting less threes and shooting a lower percentage than in the regular season. Conversely, the Spurs are sizzling from deep in the playoffs -- both in terms of makes and percentage.

Three-point shooting against the Thunder is vital for one reason: OKC is far and away the best shotblocking team in the NBA. They thrive at swarming to the paint from the weakside; when not rejecting attempts, they are oftentimes altering the desired trajectory. In addition to Serge Ibaka, the league's leading shotblocker, Nazr Mohammed, Kendrick Perkins and Kevin Durant can also block shots at relatively high rates.

To combat that shotblocking, the Spurs will space the court with shooters. That means San Antonio will spend as much time as possible with four three-point marksmen simultaneously on the court. In theory, such an arrangement should make Ibaka (and the other shotblockers) think twice about leaving his man to hunt blocks.

In general, everything suggests the Spurs will have the advantage when it comes three-point shooting in the series. The Spurs are above average at limiting open three-point looks on defense. The Thunder, on the other hand, are in the middle of the pack when it comes to defending the three-point line.

5. The Turnover Battle
Typically, turnovers haven't really been an issue in the playoffs for the Spurs in the Tim Duncan Era. San Antonio doesn't force many turnovers but they also don't turn it over much, so it usually evens out over the course of a series. However, in the 2012 WCF, turnovers will be in focus.

During the regular season, the Thunder turned it over more than any team in the NBA. But against the Lakers in the second round, OKC's turnovers were way, way down. They went from a regular season average of 16.3 turnovers per game to only 9.0 per game against L.A. -- a microscopic amount.

However, that feat by the Thunder should come with a bolded footnote. It's not sufficient to say the Lakers were poor at forcing turnovers. In fact, since turnovers became an official statistic in the NBA, no team has ever forced turnovers at a lower rate than the 2011-12 Lakers.

Although the Spurs were the sixth worst team in the NBA at forcing turnovers this season, they were able to force in excess of 20% more turnovers than the Lakers. If San Antonio could force Oklahoma City to turn the ball over at their regular season rate, that could be a series-changing accomplishment.

On the other end, the Spurs were the third least turnover-prone in the NBA this season. Add in the fact that the Thunder forced turnovers at the eighth lowest rate in the league and, on paper at least, the Spurs don't appear destined to turn the ball over much in this series.

4. Run, I Dare You
In the lead up to this series, we'll hear a lot about how the Thunder want to take advantage of their young legs and get out and push the tempo. The truth, however, is the Thunder would be foolish to think that strategy would work against the Spurs. San Antonio is the most efficient transition team in the NBA and they become virtually unbeatable in fast paced games.

Consider this: In games in which there have been at least 94 possessions, the Spurs have won 21 straight games. Over the same time frame, the Thunder are 11-7 at games played at that pace. In other words, if the Thunder think they can run the Spurs out of the building, they'll be in for a rude awakening.

If the pace becomes elevated, the key for the Spurs will be to avoid giving up easy transition buckets. The Thunder have the athletes to finish two-on-one and three-on-two fast breaks nearly every time. But if the Spurs can get back on defense and contest shots, San Antonio is more than happy to allow OKC to run until they get a bluish tint.

3. Lineup Versatility
Though Oklahoma City's starting lineup features a tradition quintet, one of their team's deadliest qualities is their versatility. They are able to switch from traditional to big to small and back again without skipping a beat.

The man most responsible for their lineup versatility is Kevin Durant. He's about an inch and a half taller than his listed height of 6-foot-9 and has an enormous wingspan of nearly 7-foot-5. He's extremely mobile and has added enough strength to thrive at shooting guard, small forward and power forward.

The good news for the Spurs is their lineups are nearly as versatile, largely due to the emergence of Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. Green can defend three positions, while Leonard can actually guard four positions. Both players are also really good rebounders for their size who aren't afraid to bang in the painted area. As a result, there's a good chance that OKC's lineup versatility can be mostly neutralized by San Antonio's young duo.

If Durant is at power forward, the Spurs can just move Leonard to power forward. As long as Green is in the game along with Manu Ginobili or Stephen Jackson for added tenacity and toughness, the Spurs should be able to go right back at the Thunder with a quality small ball lineup of their own.

If the Thunder try to go big, the Spurs have a number of big lineup options including the usage of Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter together, or playing Leonard at shooting guard. Sometimes Pop gets criticized for mixing and matching so much during the regular season, but this is an example of how his experiments could pay notable dividends.

2. Where No Star Point Guard Has Gone Before
This era of Thunder has played a total of six series in the playoffs. Here are the starting point guards they've gone against: Jason Kidd twice, Ramon Sessions, Derek Fisher, Mike Conley and Ty Lawson. While solid point guards, there is no star on that list or anyone close to the level of Tony Parker. In this upcoming series, going against a point guard of Parker's quality is going to be a new experience for Oklahoma City in the postseason.

Coming out of UCLA, Russell Westbrook had the reputation of a defensive stopper. And while he has far surpassed his offensive expectations, his defense thus far in his career can best be described as inconsistent. Opponents had a PER of 16.1 against him this season. While not an astronomically high number, it's higher than any of the other perimeter players on the Thunder.

In the last two seasons, Parker and Westbrook have gone at each other for a total of 178 minutes. Per 40 minutes against Westbrook, Parker averaged 26.3 points and 7.4 assists on 50.6% shooting from the field. On the other side, per 40 minutes against Parker, Westbrook averaged 21.9 points and 7.2 assists on 39.9% shooting.

All that said, Westbrook is playing great basketball right now. He seems to be excelling on both sides of the court and he has been one of the best players in the NBA so far in the 2012 playoffs. He very well may be up to the challenge of slowing Parker. But, the point is, nobody knows for sure. At the very least, I assume it will be a little bit of an adjustment for Westbrook in that he'll be forced to play both ends of the court. Against the Mavs and Lakers, that was rarely, if ever, the case.

1. Defense
If you've been locked away in a dungeon since 2007, you wouldn't be surprised that defense is the leading reason why the Spurs should be considered the favorite in a series. However, defense looked like anything but a strength to begin this season. As the season progressed, San Antonio's defense went from poor to pretty bad to average to where it is now. Where is that, exactly? I'd say somewhere north of Above Average Avenue and south of Best Boulevard.

Over the last third of the regular season, the Spurs were in the top five or six in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency. During the playoffs, the defensive stats have gotten even better: San Antonio has allowed only 97 points per 100 possessions. To put that in perspective, that's 6.3 points better than their defensive efficiency in the regular season. In fact, you can make a good case that the Spurs have played the best defense of any team in the playoffs.

(To make that case, I will simply take each playoff team's actual defensive efficiency thus far in the postseason and compare it to their expected defensive efficiency -- a number equal to the average offensive efficiency of their playoff opponents during the regular season.)

Best Defenses as Percentage Better than Expectation
Spurs +9.9%
Celtics +8.9%
Heat +8.8%
Pacers +6.3%
Sixers +4.6%
Thunder +1.4%

Yes, the Jazz were green. Yes, the Clippers were hobbled. But so far, the San Antonio defense has been sturdy in the postseason. The Thunder, on the other hand, statistically have the worst defense of any team still alive in the playoffs. Yes, they had a relatively difficult road in the first two rounds but it's undeniable that the Thunder have been winning mostly with their offense.

Against OKC, the Spurs will have their hands full defensively. Durant, Westbrook and Harden are all amazing offensive players. If you are San Antonio, four aspects give you hope:

A) Outside of Durant, Westbrook and Harden, the only other halfway decent offensive threat is Ibaka. Everyone else is well below average offensively. OKC has some good spot-up shooters and a couple players that can score around the rim if ignored -- but it's basically their Big 3 with a sprinkling of Ibaka.

B) If you need a coach to figure out a scheme to stop a high-powered offense, there's probably nobody on the planet you'd want before Gregg Popovich. This is where the coaching advantage should work in San Antonio's favor. Pop has figured out genius ways to stop high-powered offenses before; let us hope he can do it again.

C) The Spurs might be able to limit their possessions. I mentioned turnovers above but rebounding is another area where the Thunder shouldn't cause too many problems. Oklahoma City is worse than the Clippers and Jazz at rebounding -- both on the offensive end and defensive end. When it comes to defensive rebounding, OKC is actually quite poor. If the Spurs can keep the Thunder off the offensive glass and gobble up a few more offensive boards of their own, the result could help tip the scale in San Antonio's favor -- especially when you add in the potential added possessions from the turnover differential.

D) The Big 3 of the Spurs has been together for a thousand years and their chemistry is impeccable. Meanwhile, the chemistry of the Thunder's Big 3 appears to be a work in progress. Grumblings can often be heard about Westbrook not giving the ball to Durant enough. Now with Harden needing more and more touches as he blossoms into a star, does OKC really know their own pecking order? Personally, it looks like they may need more time to figure it out. Don't get me wrong, they are already great offensively ... but I'm not 100% sure they have championship-caliber chemistry right this second. What will happen if the Spurs are having success and the chips are down? The Spurs can hope that the Thunder need another full season to reach their peak effectiveness.


Overall, I'm optimistic of San Antonio's chances. It's not going to be easy regardless of what Spurs fans who are blinded by the glare of the 18-game winning streak will tell you. It will require a number of players being at the top of their game. I haven't yet decided on my final prediction but I really do believe the Spurs can do this.

Believe.










.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Believe.



(trying, anyways)

[TE]

Nice write up. :tu

[capek]

Probably my favorite of your pre-series write ups so far. :tu




3. Lineup Versatility
Though Oklahoma City's starting lineup features a tradition quintet, one of their team's deadliest qualities is their versatility. They are able to switch from traditional to big to small and back again without skipping a beat.

The man most responsible for their lineup versatility is Kevin Durant. He's about an inch and a half taller than his listed height of 6-foot-9 and has an enormous wingspan of nearly 7-foot-5. He's extremely mobile and has added enough strength to thrive at shooting guard, small forward and power forward.

The good news for the Spurs is their lineups are nearly as versatile, largely due to the emergence of Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. Green can defend three positions, while Leonard can actually guard four positions. Both players are also really good rebounders for their size who aren't afraid to bang in the painted area. As a result, there's a good chance that OKC's lineup versatility can be mostly neutralized by San Antonio's young duo.

If Durant is at power forward, the Spurs can just move Leonard to power forward. As long as Green is in the game along with Manu Ginobili or Stephen Jackson for added tenacity and toughness, the Spurs should be able to go right back at the Thunder with a quality small ball lineup of their own.

If the Thunder try to go big, the Spurs have a number of big lineup options including the usage of Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter together, or playing Leonard at shooting guard. Sometimes Pop gets criticized for mixing and matching so much during the regular season, but this is an example of how his experiments could pay notable dividends.


About OKC's small lineup. Given Pop's penchant for matching small with small, I'm thinking this will probably stay a hypothetical. But here's how I'd really like to see him counter a lineup of Westbrook, Harden, Thabo, Durant at the four, and Ibaka/Perkins:

Tony, Manu/Green, Kawhi/SJax, Diaw/Bonner, and Timmy/Splitter, with Kawhi/SJax guarding Durant, and Diaw/Bonner on Thabo (preferred lineup in bold).

Diaw/Bonner could stay on Thabo, as he camps out at the three point line, and keep an eye out for his cuts to be basket, while also cheating a bit to help on drives and add some size for rebounding. On offense, Diaw could really exploit the Thunder for easy hoops in the paint, and when Bonner is in, there would be tons of space for Tony and Manu to drive to the bucket, with the Thunder only having one big in the game.

I think this could be such a successful response to this particular small lineup the Thunder like to run, that it might force Brooks to go away from it and leave two bigs in the game, which again plays into our hand considering that the Thunder get no offense from the post.

I'm not sure if we'll see Pop try this adjustment, or if it'll even be needed, but I think it has a good chance of being successful if he gives it a run.

[Robz4000]

Been waiting for this thread. Good read! :tu

[Libri]

I think the defense and freethrow shooting will be critical for the Spurs success. OKC is the best freethrow shooting team in the league, so Pop will not have the hack-a-somebody as a recourse to kill the opposing team's momentum. The Spurs will have to rely on their defense.

Furthermore, OKC is averaging 24+ freethrow attempts. A big chunk of the Thunder's points, 20+, comes from the freethrow line. The Spurs will have the difficult task of playing aggressive defense but without committing too many fouls.

The good news is that Spurs, in the playoffs, are not far behind with 22+ attempts and are near the bottom in committing fouls. The Thunder are close to the top in fouls committed per game. Therefore, winning could come down to freethrow shooting. I believe the Spurs are up to the challenge.

[timvp]

I think the defense and freethrow shooting will be critical for the Spurs success. OKC is the best freethrow shooting team in the league, so Pop will not have the hack-a-somebody as a recourse to kill the opposing team's momentum. The Spurs will have to rely on their defense.

Furthermore, OKC is averaging 24+ freethrow attempts. A big chunk of the Thunder's points, 20+, comes from the freethrow line. The Spurs will have the difficult task of playing aggressive defense but without committing too many fouls.

The good news is that Spurs, in the playoffs, are not far behind with 22+ attempts and are near the bottom in committing fouls. The Thunder are close to the top in fouls committed per game. Therefore, winning could come down to freethrow shooting. I believe the Spurs are up to the challenge.My original list was nine long with free throws included. But it became too complicated the more I looked at it so I decided to split it out into another post.

I wasn't quite confident enough regarding free throws for it to make this list, tbh.

[timvp]

capek, that's a pretty damn good idea. Sefolosha is a good shooter but he shoots so infrequently that you can probably hide a big on him if need be. The Spurs did something similar with QRich back in 2005 ... and QRich back then was much more dangerous than Sefolosha is today.

[Floyd Pacquiao]

good read....thanks timvp

[Libri]

My original list was nine long with free throws included. But it became too complicated the more I looked at it so I decided to split it out into another post.

I wasn't quite confident enough regarding free throws for it to make this list, tbh.

Looking forward to reading about it.

[capek]

capek, that's a pretty damn good idea. Sefolosha is a good shooter but he shoots so infrequently that you can probably hide a big on him if need be. The Spurs did something similar with QRich back in 2005 ... and QRich back then was much more dangerous than Sefolosha is today.

Ya, I mean I can't think of any reasons why it wouldn't not only work, but be pretty effective. All the times I watched the Thunder play this year (and it wasn't just against the Spurs or during the playoffs), I don't remember ever seeing Thabo take his defender off the dribble, or even attempt it. It's all spot up threes and cuts to the basket from him. I think both Diaw and Bonner are disciplined enough on defense that they wouldn't get exploited by that too often.

And like the Jazz series this year seemed to exorcise some of your demons from past losses to the Jazz, for me this would exorcise the demon of Pop changing his lineup to go small vs small against Dallas in '06. That still bugs me for some reason. :lol

[roycrikside]

capek, that's a pretty damn good idea. Sefolosha is a good shooter but he shoots so infrequently that you can probably hide a big on him if need be. The Spurs did something similar with QRich back in 2005 ... and QRich back then was much more dangerous than Sefolosha is today.

I don't see the benefit of it, tbh. The rebounding edge of Diaw over Leonard at the 4 isn't that substantial and he's not aggressive enough to take advantage of Durant in the post. Even though he's got the weight, Durant has a massive advantage in wingspan to counter that, and I think the refs will protect him down there. And it's not like Bonner will back down Durant.

Unless Diaw buries Durant in the post every trip, what do we gain from that?

Also, not sure how much Harden and Sefolosha even play together. I think Fisher is more of their smallball guy.

[ElNono]

Good read, thanks!

[roycrikside]

Personally, I think we'd want the Thunder to play small. The more the better. Duncan posting up Ibaka is a big-time advantage for us. He's not nearly stocky enough to guard Tim. We'd have post-ups, maybe even draw some double teams, and we could run all kinds of pick and rolls with Tony and Manu, with Green and Leonard on the corners.

It'd be a very open, high-scoring set, but we'd have the shooting advantage and we could hide either Parker or Manu on Fisher, where as the Thunder couldn't hide him on anyone, and Westbrook, Harden and Durant would have to be engaged on every defensive possession. Our two veteran guards could take turns having a blow on defense.

I'm a lot more worried about the Thunder when they play with Perkins and Ibaka together, tbh.

[TE]

timvp, realistically and statistically speaking, how much success do you think Leonard will have going up against Durant?

It's an intriguing match-up to say the least.

[ShoogarBear]

5. The Turnover Battle

Ultimately, this is what did in the Lakers. Westbrook averaged less than one turnover per game. Even with LA's late-game meltdowns, if OKC had turned the ball over at their usual rate, then the Lakers are up 3-2 and still playing that series.

It's very possible that Durant and Westbrook will both have white-hot shooting for four games in a seven game series, in which case there's not a whole lot you can do. But the statistical chance of them being that careful with the ball again has to be minuscule.

[Obstructed_View]

It occurred to me the other day that the best point guard Westbrook has faced in the postseason is in practice. Parker might not run roughshod over him like he did in the regular season, but playing him to a standstill is still in the Spurs' favor. This looks like the Spurs' series to lose. Hope they take advantage.

[capek]

I don't see the benefit of it, tbh. The rebounding edge of Diaw over Leonard at the 4 isn't that substantial and he's not aggressive enough to take advantage of Durant in the post. Even though he's got the weight, Durant has a massive advantage in wingspan to counter that, and I think the refs will protect him down there. And it's not like Bonner will back down Durant.

Unless Diaw buries Durant in the post every trip, what do we gain from that?

Also, not sure how much Harden and Sefolosha even play together. I think Fisher is more of their smallball guy.

I think we'd reap a few benefits, actually.

1) Diaw has been our second best rebounder in the playoffs at 5.5 rpg, and our best offensive rebounder at 2 a game (1 more than Kawhi). The more he's on the court--especially when only 1 of the 4 of Collison/Ibaka/Perkins/Nazir is in the game--the better chance we have of getting extra shots, and not giving up extra shots or transition buckets.

2) It's another way to potentially make Durant work on the defensive end. In this scenario, you would imagine that Durant would have to pick up Diaw on defense. Well, Diaw is really our only option of taking Durant to the post. Forcing Durant to bang in the post would be a great way to make sure he's as tired as possible when the fourth quarter rolls around. And when Durant is tired, he's more likely to jack up a bunch of deep, contested three's, as opposed to try to take his man off the dribble. Another big plus for us.

3) Spacing. Both Bonner and Diaw can hit the three, so we don't lose anything by not matching small and playing Neal, and we gain the rebounding and taking Durant to the post.

With Manu in the game, I'm sure Brooks will prefer to have Thabo in to guard him as opposed to putting Harden on him (though I'm sure we'll see some of that as well). Anyways, I'm not saying this would be a necessary adjustment. I'll take a small lineup of Tony/Neal, Manu, Green, Kawhi/SJax, and Duncan/Splitter against the Thunder's small lineup all day. I just think there are some opportunities to go big against their lineup that we should try out.

[Danny.Zhu]

Good read. Thanks.

Spurs in 5.

[Sense]

Great, great read Timvp! So glad you take your time to do these, you summed everything up.

[TDMVPDPOY]

do you guys think the 3 scrubs at the end of the bench might get some real minutes if mismatches are a disadvantage to us when we in foul trouble?

[mkurts]

Good stuff timvp - I think the deepness of this year's Spurs team allows it to adapt and match up well against just about anybody.

Favorites or not, need I remind everyone here of what happened during the last lockout shortened season, and the Spurs carrying a big unbeaten streak ?? We won the title.

[TDMVPDPOY]

the way diaw has been playing through the 2 playoff series jumping for offensive rebs for 2nd chance points is going to win us games...the same cant be said about the scrub who loss his starting position to him

[slick'81]

love the take about defense while i wouldnt consider the spurs a defensive juggernaut theyve been solid for stretches and getting stops when they count so far this post season

[senorglory]

when teams run with us, games get decided in our favor by third quarter. that's my impression.

[mudyez]

thanks timvp (its more like 11 points)!

believe! we will beat them... and I dont care how many games it will take us to do so!

[DespЏrado]

This should be up for a pulitzer, great got damn analysis.

[100%duncan]

'Bout damn time. It's getting annoying that most of us here are afraid of the thunder to the point that they are slobbering over their asses. I am afraid of them too, but for God's sake have faith on our team.

Believe.

[will_spurs]

Over the last third of the regular season, the Spurs were in the top five or six in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency. During the playoffs, the defensive stats have gotten even better: San Antonio has allowed only 97 points per 100 possessions. To put that in perspective, that's 6.3 points better than their defensive efficiency in the regular season. In fact, you can make a good case that the Spurs have played the best defense of any team in the playoffs.

The addition of Diaw and Jackson can not be underestimated here. Both of them are difference-makers on D.

Parker also improved his D a lot at the start of the playoffs (see the quotes from him and Pop re: his effort with the French NT). He seems possessed on that end.

[G-Nob]

The transition defense is probably the most crucial key to this series. Putting myself in Pop's shoes, I trap Durant every time he touches the ball. I'll treat Westbrook like cp3, rotating defensive players on him (tony,danny,kawhi). Force others to beat me. Nothing frustrates a team more than having to force up shots from their fourth or fifth options. Also, If the spurs can figure out a way to close the passing lanes and force turnovers, this series could be over a lot quicker than people realize.

[Kuestmaster]

Awesome write-up as always John err I mean timvp.
I think Tony and Westbrook will equal each other, and Tim will outplay their frontline. If Manu rises his play I'm very confident in this team.

[freetiago]

I think SA should actually go over the screens and force westbrook to drive
his drives are so out of control
he just jumps high and throws his body into defenders hoping he draws fouls, im amazed hes so durable which you would never believe watching him play
hes not very good at the drive kick game
imo the reason hes averaging career low in turnovers in the playoffs is because he hasnt been driving as much
teams are giving (not that they can really stop it) the midrange shot and it works in his favor since hes hitting it at a decent clip
he gets in trouble and turns the ball over when he drives and the teams dont foul or he throws bad bailout passes on his drive kick attempts
and SA is one of the best at contesting without fouling and the new guys on the team seem to have good hands at contesting/deflecting/covering passing lanes

[Uriel]

I don't know if he's trying to set himself up against disappointment, but timvp's tone in his Thunder preview seems way too pessimistic, to the point that even fans in Oklahoma City seem to be more inclined to believe that the Spurs will win (as evidenced by their predictions in their forum (http://www.okcthunderfans.com/vforum/showthread.php?8663-conference-finals-predictions-San-Antonio-Spurs-vs-Oklahoma-Thunder)). Granted, I'm aware that the latter point seems a tad ironic considering he states that the Spurs are the favorites in this series -- not to mention, the thread title explicitly states "Why I Believe," -- but time and again throughout his post, he seems to hedge his belief in the Spurs, to the point where one can't help but get the impression that he feels these two teams are absolutely evenly matched, and that the series will ultimately come down to what essentially amounts to a coin flip.

Consider the following points:

A. The Spurs are the better team.

1. The Spurs' point differential of +7.17 for the regular season is over a full point better than the Thunder's +6.12. That difference was even more pronounced in the last quarter of the season, wherein the Spurs' point differential was an astounding +12.71, making the Thunder's +6.12 pale in comparison.

2. It's already been established that the Spurs are better offensively than these Thunder: their offensive efficiency of 108.5 is again over a full point better than their counterpart's 107.1. But what makes this even more glaring is that even though the Thunder's defensive efficiency was better than that of the Spurs by the slimmest of margins -- 100.6 to 100.0 -- as timvp himself and many others pointed out, much of that was registered earlier in the season when the team still featured Jefferson and Blair prominently in the rotation. When you consider the significant improvement that's come since then, it really isn't a stretch to say that the Spurs are better BOTH offensively AND defensively than the Thunder.

B. The Spurs match up well with the Thunder.

1. The Spurs and Thunder met thrice in the regular season. In all three matchups, Manu Ginobili did not play due to injury, and all occurred prior to the arrival of Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw. In spite of this, and the fact that 2 out of the 3 meetings were in Oklahoma City, the Spurs managed to win 2 out of 3 of them, with a point differential of +2.67. And it's not just this season: the Spurs are a combined 8 - 2 over the Thunder over the last 3 seasons. So if the Spurs have consistently shown that they match up well with the Thunder, how much wider will the disparity then be when the Spurs are at full strength, and when 4 out of the 7 games will be played in San Antonio?

To win in the playoffs, you either have to be better than your opponent, or you have to match up well with them. The Spurs are both. To be sure, this series will be more difficult than the last two, but barring injury, it's really difficult to conclude anything other than the Spurs being definitive favorites to win.

Prediction: Spurs in 5.

[pgardn]

#7

is an especially interesting point.

I think Duncan being double teamed so infrequently is a big plus yet again. Ibaka will join the paratroopers club. He will get his blocks, but Tim can use him. Tim can go over the top or around Perkins.

Imo opinion Tim being doubled so sparingly has opened up so much from the outside along with good penetration from Parker with others. Tim healthy and singled makes it so much easier for him to score and pass. The doubles were really hurting him when he became less capable imo.

[silverblackfan]

Good points and well thought out. Thanks!
I really believe the extra ingredient to this series is discipline. Its how the Spurs have played forever and now they have 10-11 guys who stay within themselves and the game plan. When they bring the energy and focus, that discipline becomes the deciding factor and wears down the opponent.
OKC has a few more playoffs under the belt and may be tougher, but they are still young and susceptible to emotions. Our youngest player does not show emotion, only energy and passion.
OKC has 3 very talented players who can quite frankly get hot in the 4th quarter and win a game or two. The Spurs have 3 of their own and then 8 more guys that are definite threats when they are hot.
I will throw OKC a few games due to their crazy home court games and the possibility of their stars getting hot in the 4th. So initially, I thought it would take 6 games to finish them. On the other hand, I am a Homer and do believe this team will get into the Thunder's heads early and often with their discipline and consistent, never let up offense.

Spurs in 5.

[polandprzem]

good read

thx :tu

[mando6599]

timvp, Do you think that Pop utilizes Blair at all this series as he's had quite the success this year against OKC? Or is that just Fool's Gold thinking that? Can he be effective after sitting a whole entire series practically?

mando

[thispego]

Believe.



(trying, anyways)

puuuuuuussssssaaayyyyyyyy

[team-work]

8. Uncle Mo
While it can be argued how much momentum matters in the playoffs (if it matters at all), my opinion is simple: Momentum can't hurt. And that's especially true with how well the Spurs have been playing lately. An 18-game winning streak and winning 29 of their previous 31 games can't -- and shouldn't -- be ignored.

During that 29-2 run, the Spurs have outscored their opponents by 13.2 points per game. Over the same stretch, the Thunder are 21-10 with an average margin of a 6.6 points -- or exactly half of San Antonio's margin.

Many pundits may point to Oklahoma City's experience and success in close games, especially in the first two rounds of the playoffs. However, there's one thing better than being a team that is great in close games: Being a team that routinely blows out the competition. Winning close games always requires a certain amount of luck, while there is nothing lucky about smashing the opposition.

About the winning streak, everyone on the team is aware that it means nothing if the final result is not a championship, especially the veterans who have experienced different scenarios. I'm confident they have the "we can lose a game, but we will not blow the series" attitude, and prevail even if the series is long.

[Legacy]

timvp, realistically and statistically speaking, how much success do you think Leonard will have going up against Durant?

It's an intriguing match-up to say the least.


I SO second this notion. :ihit :hungry:





Thanks again for the sweep-- *ahem* I mean... sweet write-up again, timvp. :p:



*The above sentence was a joke, btw... hence the "cheeky" icon... But once again, The Spurs are MORE than welcome to keep proving people (myself included) wrong, if they wish to. ;)

[cheguevara]

- How can a team that swept the reigning champs and went 3-1 vs. Lakers have less momentum that a team that swept the lowly Jazz and the injured Clips? And no I don't count regular season winning streaks. (not to mention Harden's injury)

- As of today Manu is not Spurs best swingman. Far from it.

- Live by the 3 die by the 3

This series will come down to the following:
- can Duncan still dominate opposing bigs?
- can Durant be contained?
- can Manu improve his game to at least match Harden?

[manufan10]

I'm sticking with my original prediction, Spurs in 6.

[T Park]

Ibaka to me more and more reminds me of a more athletic Marcus Camby. Gets a lot of blocks, Decent post game, thinks he's a jump shooter when he really isn't.

His defensive reputation IMO comes off his blocking every shot and guys like that are terrible one on one cause you can uptake them out of the gym IE Deandre Jordan.

[polandprzem]

easy three

1. expose Thunder bigs ->2. force them to play small. -> 3. win transition battle /trans D esp./

[polandprzem]

Ibaka to me more and more reminds me of a more athletic Marcus Camby. Gets a lot of blocks, Decent post game, thinks he's a jump shooter when he really isn't.

Maybe not more athletic but different frame

But good comparison

[T Park]

- How can a team that swept the reigning champs and went 3-1 vs. Lakers have less momentum that a team that swept the lowly Jazz and the injured Clips? And no I don't count regular season winning streaks. (not to mention Harden's injury)

- As of today Manu is not Spurs best swingman. Far from it.

- Live by the 3 die by the 3

This series will come down to the following:
- can Duncan still dominate opposing bigs?
- can Durant be contained?
- can Manu improve his game to at least match Harden?


Duncan hasn't dominated up till now?

[J.T.]

I can't call sweep but the Spurs should win this series in 5 or 6. I know it's against the conventional wisdom, but I think Westbrook is overrated. I don't think he's ready to try to outgun Tony Parker in a playoff series and it would make my playoffs so far to see him utterly fail to do that.

[mando6599]

I can't call sweep but the Spurs should win this series in 5 or 6. I know it's against the conventional wisdom, but I think Westbrook is overrated. I don't think he's ready to try to outgun Tony Parker in a playoff series and it would make my playoffs so far to see him utterly fail to do that.

This, plus WestBRICK is not the passer and does not have the court vision TP has, imo.

[z0sa]

Turnovers in that Laker series were incredible. The Thunder offense was no way that efficient. They played near-perfect IIRC during that big Game 4 comeback that was capped off by Durant's contested 25 footer.

There's just no way in hell the Thunder do that again.

[ViceCity86]

Thunder's best defenders are negated by Spurs style of play.Perkins can't defend pick n roll.Thabo is wasted by being in starting lineup.They were perfectly built to beat the Lakers.

Thabo on Kobe in iso ball
Perkins on Bynum strictly post ups-Duncan more versatile than bynum.
Too much speed for Lakers
Had no one to go at Westbrook.Sessions was skerred.

Spurs in 5

[Old School 44]

6. Threes as Weaponry
No matter how you slice it, the Spurs are the superior from beyond the three-point line. While the Thunder's shooting from downtown should be classified as above average, the Spurs are elite.

Use the Thunder's youth and speed against them. They'll be closing hard on three point shooters. Leonard, Green, Ginobili, Neal, Jackson, Diaw, Bonner (not so much) should side step the closers and get the Thunder defense moving. This will open up all kinds of offensive options.

[gameFACE]

Grumblings can often be heard about Westbrook not giving the ball to Durant enough. Now with Harden needing more and more touches as he blossoms into a star, does OKC really know their own pecking order? Personally, it looks like they may need more time to figure it out. Don't get me wrong, they are already great offensively ... but I'm not 100% sure they have championship-caliber chemistry right this second. What will happen if the Spurs are having success and the chips are down?

I'm hoping the pressure the Spurs put on him results in Westbeook chucking the ball up more trying to make the big play rather than pass to Durant.

I believe.

[OKC Thunderstorm]

A bunch of delusional homers. There will be an annoiting starting Sunday. Durant as the best player in the West and Westbrook as the top PG in the game. OKC in 6.

[capek]

A bunch of delusional homers. There will be an annoiting starting Sunday. Durant as the best player in the West and Westbrook as the top PG in the game. OKC in 6.

How did having the best players work out for Miami in the finals last year?

Team > stars

[urunobili]

timvp, do you see Brooks gambling by having Harden start if they lose their first two games?

[senorglory]

@okc thunderstorm: regarding your sig, I'm not saying they can't or won't, but why would the thunder WANT to "shit on" my porch?

[T Park]

Ignore the clowns people.... Please....

[OKC Thunderstorm]

Ignore the clowns people.... Please....

:lol

[benefactor]

A bunch of delusional homers. There will be an annoiting starting Sunday. Durant as the best player in the West and Westbrook as the top PG in the game. OKC in 6.
that's nice

[cheguevara]

Duncan hasn't dominated up till now?

yes, he has dominated a young Jazz frontline and an injured/shitty Clippers frontline. my point is can he still dominate a much superior OKC frontline?

[Obstructed_View]

:lol @ false bravado.


Fuck it, I'm calling sweep. Been dancing around it. I wouldn't be shocked if the Spurs drop a game, but there's not really any excuse for them to do so. This group is on a mission not to let up, so I therefore think they won't.

[Fabbs]

3. Lineup Versatility
The man most responsible for their lineup versatility is Kevin Durant. He's about an inch and a half taller than his listed height of 6-foot-9 and has an enormous wingspan of nearly 7-foot-5. He's extremely mobile and has added enough strength to thrive at shooting guard, small forward and power forward.
Timvp sidepoint question.
Of course Durants wingspan is huge and that is your point.
However, why did he not appear on the chart provided on the superb thread :toast by Knoxxx
http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=5890062#post5890062
Believe your eyes: Spurs Outsize LAC Bigs

Here is the chart:
http://swishscout.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/freakish-chart1.jpg
Durant doesn't make the top 10 for standing height vs wingspan difference. (Altho if he is not in the top 10 he must be right on the bubble, like 11th or 12th or....)

Were you approximating the 7'5" wingspan?
Or mathmatically does Durant just miss the +8.54 dif that #10 has?

http://swishscout.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/freakish-chart1.jpg

[Kidd K]

To be honest, the pace of the series is what interests me a lot. The Spurs play best at a fast pace now, so would the Thunder actually try and slow them down to slow down the game? They are average in the half court still, so that's an interesting prospect

The Thunder are only good at "playing fast" if it's with fast breaks. The Spurs are good at "playing fast" both in fast breaks and in the half court. If the Spurs goad the Thunder into taking fast shots in the half court setting, we'll end up blowing them out since they take tougher shots while ours tend to be pretty open ones.

So it'd be interesting to see what OKC tries to do there. I think we can grind them out and win over the course of 48 minutes, but it's it's tied or close in the last 2 minutes, the advantage is with OKC imo due to officiating and their shady track record of getting nearly 80% of the calls favoring them in the last 2 minutes of close games this year. I mean, how many times have you switched between Spurs and OKC games, and seen them at the free throw line almost every time? Or finished watching an OKC game and heard a stat similar to: "OKC hasn't made a field goal in the last 7 minutes but has 12 points in that span"? Yeah.

So I think the main focus should be to get out to a sizable lead before the game starts to come to a close. That way the officiating can't decide the outcome as easily as it can in close games. If we can be up by say, 8 or so with a couple minutes left, we should be able to take the games. But if it's a 1-3 point game, I'm concerned there will be the typical OKC march to the free throw line while the refs swallow their whistles when the Thunder hack people on the wrists on the other end.

The refs haven't done us any favors in the playoffs in a long ass time, so I don't expect that to change now. Especially against the league-preferred Thunder. So taking advantage of all the early minutes will be key, not just playing close and hoping the refs will call it down the middle late.

[thunderfan]

A bunch of delusional homers. There will be an annoiting starting Sunday. Durant as the best player in the West and Westbrook as the top PG in the game. OKC in 6.

lol I'd like some of what you are smoking. I mean, is it a possibility for OKC to win this series? I think so (I would consider it a moderate upset if it happened), but I think you're a BIT overly optimistic here with all the annointing references.

[thunderfan]

timvp, do you see Brooks gambling by having Harden start if they lose their first two games?

Brooks will NEVER start Harden unless Thabo is hurt. I assure you.

[ata]

A bunch of delusional homers...
It takes one, to know one.

[Kidd K]

Timvp sidepoint question.
Of course Durants wingspan is huge and that is your point.
However, why did he not appear on the chart provided on the superb thread :toast by Knoxxx
http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=5890062#post5890062
Believe your eyes: Spurs Outsize LAC Bigs

Here is the chart:
http://swishscout.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/freakish-chart1.jpg
Durant doesn't make the top 10 for standing height vs wingspan difference. (Altho if he is not in the top 10 he must be right on the bubble, like 11th or 12th or....)

Were you approximating the 7'5" wingspan?
Or mathmatically does Durant just miss the +8.54 dif that #10 has?

http://swishscout.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/freakish-chart1.jpg

Just to answer your questions, mathmatically 7'5" (89 inches) is 8.53% larger than 6'10" (82 inches). So he should've been on the list if that was the case. If they're listing him at 6'9", then the gap is even greater at 9.88%.

So either his wingspan is smaller than 7'5" and he's not on the list, or he's just not put on the list for some reason.

I looked up his draft express stats and it says he's 6'9" even (6'10 1/4" with shoes), and has a wingspan of 7'4 3/4th". So that's 9.12% according to draft express, and should be right where Marshon Brooks is.

[T Park]

yes, he has dominated a young Jazz frontline and an injured/shitty Clippers frontline. my point is can he still dominate a much superior OKC frontline?

Lol @ nazr Mohammed and Nick Collison and Perkins being better than Jordan Martin and Griffin

[thunderfan]

Lol @ nazr Mohammed and Nick Collison and Perkins being better than Jordan Martin and Griffin

You're leaving out a first team all NBA defensive player in that list.

[Bill_Brasky]

You're leaving out a first team all NBA defensive player in that list.

You talkin bout the one who got absolutely yammed on by Leonard?

[CitizenDwayne]

All-Defensive team or not, Ibaka's a stat whore. He gets a shit ton of blocks, but his man-to-man d is questionable.

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

Lol @ nazr Mohammed and Nick Collison and Perkins being better than Jordan Martin and Griffin


I hear what you're saying. In my opinion, Clippers bigs have a higher ceiling but they're a bit crazy and/or disappear. I don't think the OKC bigs are better, they're not, but I think they will be consistent and give better effort. Will that matter? I don't think so ultimately. But I do think Ibaka will have some success swarming the paint and blocking Tiago at the rim a few times. It will make some highlight reels, but again, shouldn't be a huge game changer.

[thunderfan]

True - Ibaka's man to man defense was one aspect at which he really needed to improve - and he has, very much so. Still, his weak side help and shot blocking is still his main asset. Ibaka was voted onto this NBA all defensive team by the league's coaches, not media idiots who just look at stats. Ibaka is flat out a game changer defensively. Anyone who thinks otherwise has not seen enough of Ibaka. The coaches around the league recognize his impact on the defensive end, despite any shortcomings he might have in some areas.

[cheguevara]

Lol @ nazr Mohammed and Nick Collison and Perkins being better than Jordan Martin and Griffin

Perk/Ibaka/Collison/Nazi are defensively much better than injured Griffin/Jordan/Martin/Trashman


:lmao thinking otherwise

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

The Thunder thrive off energy either via their crowd, or Ibaka's highlight blocks, or their Big 3's isolation plays.

Honestly, I'm not even sure what their team system is. They were able to stay close with LA and then were able to make a few big runs to open the game up.

The difference when they play the Spurs is that when OKC isn't making big runs we will methodically and slowly pull away from them. I'm sure OKC will still go on occasional runs, but as has been the case time after time with them, we wear them down mentally because they really don't have a mature/playoff approach to the game: no inside offense, thrive off of transition, thrive off of their home court. Against a solid team like the Spurs I just don't see them getting the same opportunities to get into their "zone". I think they will lose focus and energy due to our "surgical approach" of constantly wearing them down with precision.

Isn't that what happens everytime we play them?

Edit: And even when we really weren't that good and were still playing with that bozo RJ, we still found a way to win the game. Obviously, this gives motivation for them to overcome us, but I don't think their approach to the game has changed enough just for them to give more effort and expect to win.

[T Park]

You're leaving out a first team all NBA defensive player in that list.

I'm not impressed by Marcus Camby's younger clone...

[T Park]

True - Ibaka's man to man defense was one aspect at which he really needed to improve - and he has, very much so. Still, his weak side help and shot blocking is still his main asset. Ibaka was voted onto this NBA all defensive team by the league's coaches, not media idiots who just look at stats. Ibaka is flat out a game changer defensively. Anyone who thinks otherwise has not seen enough of Ibaka. The coaches around the league recognize his impact on the defensive end, despite any shortcomings he might have in some areas.


THe coaches put Chris Paul and Kobe Bryan on the first team.

Their cred was shot after that...

[CitizenDwayne]

Still, honestly defensively I'm more worried about Sefolosha than Ibaka, especially if Thabo is guarding Manu. How he didn't make 2nd team all-defense is beyond me. (Congrats Kobe, btw, on your lifetime achievement award!)

Anywho, all joking/trolling aside, this should be a great series (probably the best of the playoffs), and honestly, I wouldn't see it as an upset if the Thunder won. Both these teams are rolling. The Spurs are a superior all-around team, but anything could happen.

[Kidd K]

True - Ibaka's man to man defense was one aspect at which he really needed to improve - and he has, very much so. Still, his weak side help and shot blocking is still his main asset. Ibaka was voted onto this NBA all defensive team by the league's coaches, not media idiots who just look at stats. Ibaka is flat out a game changer defensively. Anyone who thinks otherwise has not seen enough of Ibaka. The coaches around the league recognize his impact on the defensive end, despite any shortcomings he might have in some areas.

Kobe's on an all NBA defensive team this year too (he was even on the first team last year when he was terrible on D). Completely devalues that award imo. I don't put much stock into it anymore.

I don't deny that Ibaka has positive defensive impact, but at the same time Ibaka keeps blocking balls into the stands (possession back to opposing team), or hard to the 3pt line (back into possession of the opposing team), which practically makes the block pointless. Dwight Howard does the same thing. Blocks are only really good when you get the ball afterward. Otherwise it's just another highlight play that didn't make a whole lot of difference. I don't consider Ibaka to be a top 5 defender in the league really. More like around 15-20 area. Still good, but doesn't do well in the post, especially against players with a lot of moves like Duncan who's been beasting in the playoffs thus far.

Speaking of Duncan and playoffs, he's 9 blocks away from setting the all time playoffs blocks record. Since he's getting about 2 per game this postseason, odds are high he'll get it on some Thunder player who will forever have the dubious honor of being a footnote in NBA history.

[T Park]

The Thunder thrive off energy either via their crowd, or Ibaka's highlight blocks, or their Big 3's isolation plays.

Honestly, I'm not even sure what their team system is. They were able to stay close with LA and then were able to make a few big runs to open the game up.

The difference when they play the Spurs is that when OKC isn't making big runs we will methodically and slowly pull away from them. I'm sure OKC will still go on occasional runs, but as has been the case time after time with them, we wear them down mentally because they really don't have a mature/playoff approach to the game: no inside offense, thrive off of transition, thrive off of their home court. Against a solid team like the Spurs I just don't see them getting the same opportunities to get into their "zone". I think they will lose focus and energy due to our "surgical approach" of constantly wearing them down with precision.

Isn't that what happens everytime we play them?

Edit: And even when we really weren't that good and were still playing with that bozo RJ, we still found a way to win the game. Obviously, this gives motivation for them to overcome us, but I don't think their approach to the game has changed enough just for them to give more effort and expect to win.



Their offense is. VDN offense. Roll the ball out and just play. They aren't much for sets it seems.

[T Park]

Perk/Ibaka/Collison/Nazi are defensively much better than injured Griffin/Jordan/Martin/Trashman


:lmao thinking otherwise


Don't sabe me bro....

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

I kind of feel sorry for Westbrook. He seems like a nice guy. But Tony is in his head. And not to mention that Goldstein guy calling him out for wearing fake glasses and looking like a dork. Ouch.

[thunderfan]

Point taken on the blocks going out of bounds or back to the shooting team. Ibaka's damn good though. Yes, some of those blocks don't produce results, but many do and the number of shots he deters, alters, etc is significant. His impact is substantial whether he blocks the shot or not. I'm not making him out to be the NBA's finest defensive big, but he's damn good and he's not even at his peak.

[T Park]

Ibaka IMO isn't the smartest of players either. He loves for some reason from time to time jack up jump shots like he's Dirk Nowitzki, and I reiterate his penchant for wanting to "block everything". More often than not against smart teams those players don't play much due to foul trouble.

[coyotes_geek]

True - Ibaka's man to man defense was one aspect at which he really needed to improve - and he has, very much so. Still, his weak side help and shot blocking is still his main asset. Ibaka was voted onto this NBA all defensive team by the league's coaches, not media idiots who just look at stats. Ibaka is flat out a game changer defensively. Anyone who thinks otherwise has not seen enough of Ibaka. The coaches around the league recognize his impact on the defensive end, despite any shortcomings he might have in some areas.

As far as this series goes the question isn't whether or not Ibaka is a great defender (he is). It's to what extent will his effect on the defensive side of the court be dimished by him having to leave the paint to stick with a Spurs big who can shoot from the outside?

[Kidd K]

Point taken on the blocks going out of bounds or back to the shooting team. Ibaka's damn good though. Yes, some of those blocks don't produce results, but many do and the number of shots he deters, alters, etc is significant. His impact is substantial whether he blocks the shot or not. I'm not making him out to be the NBA's finest defensive big, but he's damn good and he's not even at his peak.

Oh I know, I have no hate for Ibaka. If I could take any player off the Thunder right now it'd be Ibaka (in terms of adding to the Spurs). He's a good player. I like his mid range jumper as well.

But yeah, I find myself not staying awake at night over his shot blocking when he just blocks it back into our hands. Same deal, I don't stay awake at night over a few dunks either. They just count for 2 points in the end, not 5 or 10. Thunder can poster the Spurs all series long for all I care as long as SA still wins. You can have the highlights, I'll take the title.

[cheguevara]

Ibaka usually blocks from the weak side, which means not much body contact. I don't see fouling being an issue. If he guards TD on the other hand... But he won't IMO Perk will guard TD.

[thunderfan]

As far as this series goes the question isn't whether or not Ibaka is a great defender (he is). It's to what extent will his effect on the defensive side of the court be dimished by him having to leave the paint to stick with a Spurs big who can shoot from the outside?

Exactly. What you're going to see this series is a lot of "small ball" by OKC with KD at the 4 and Ibaka/Collison at C.

[Mugen]

Exactly. What you're going to see this series is a lot of "small ball" by OKC with KD at the 4 and Ibaka/Collison at C.

I hope so, especially with Fish used in the smallball lineup.

Neither Ibaka nor Collison can guard Tim without a double team.

[thunderfan]

I hope so, especially with Fish used in the smallball lineup.

Neither Ibaka nor Collison can guard Tim without a double team.

Not to take anything from Duncan, but I honestly (even being objective) don't see Duncan as one of the more difficult defensive assignment Ibaka sees during the course of a season. OKC will not double team Duncan. I'll take my chances one on one with Duncan vs leaving those other guys to shoot the ball without a defender 8 feet from them.

[thunderfan]

Duncan against OKC this year
5-13, 11 pts
5-16 13 pts
5-13 16pts

He's not worthy of a double team from OKC. 6 of his 42 shot attempts were blocked. That's a high %.

[urunobili]

Duncan against OKC this year
5-13, 11 pts
5-16 13 pts
5-13 16pts

He's not worthy of a double team from OKC. 6 of his 42 shot attempts were blocked. That's a high %.

:rolleyes

[Mugen]

Duncan against OKC this year
5-13, 11 pts
5-16 13 pts
5-13 16pts

He's not worthy of a double team from OKC. 6 of his 42 shot attempts were blocked. That's a high %.

I hope Scotty Brooks didnt watch the Clipper series and is thinking the exact same thing, tbh.

[SanDiegoSpursFan]

Duncan against OKC this year
5-13, 11 pts
5-16 13 pts
5-13 16pts

He's not worthy of a double team from OKC. 6 of his 42 shot attempts were blocked. That's a high %.

Duncan against Clippers in the regular season
5-13, 10 points
5-14, 11 points
7-13, 17 points

In the postseason
12-20, 26 points
9-14, 18 points
8-16, 19 points
9-14, 21 points

[Mugen]

Collison might have a shot but Ibaka would be heading to the bench with foul trouble shortly if he's guarding Tim for a prolonged period time.

Perk should do a decent job but he's gonna be pick n roll'd to death while he's out there.

[BatManu20]

Nice write up. Made some good points. As hot as Westbrook, Durant, and Harden are, if we can limit just one of those guys scoring a little bit and play Spurs ball like we have been, I think we have a great shot. Gotta force turnovers a bit more too and crash the boards. I can't wait for Sunday. Believe. Go Spurs.

[thunderfan]

Hey I'm not saying Duncan's not a great player! I just don't think OKC should double team him. If the rest of the team sucked, yeah sure...but they don't.

[Budkin]

Duncan against OKC this year
5-13, 11 pts
5-16 13 pts
5-13 16pts

He's not worthy of a double team from OKC. 6 of his 42 shot attempts were blocked. That's a high %.

Good, Timmy's gonna tear some shit up then.

[Nathan89]

Duncan against Clippers in the regular season
5-13, 10 points
5-14, 11 points
7-13, 17 points

In the postseason
12-20, 26 points
9-14, 18 points
8-16, 19 points
9-14, 21 points

Nice post, tbh.

[thunderfan]

Not saying he's going to repeat that 3 game regular season trend. Duncan's gonna get his. He's one of those guys. You can't double team him and let 3 other guys get theirs too though.

[coyotes_geek]

Exactly. What you're going to see this series is a lot of "small ball" by OKC with KD at the 4 and Ibaka/Collison at C.

The Spurs are comfortable playing that way too so I'm sure we'll see a lot of it from both teams during this series.


Not to take anything from Duncan, but I honestly (even being objective) don't see Duncan as one of the more difficult defensive assignment Ibaka sees during the course of a season. OKC will not double team Duncan. I'll take my chances one on one with Duncan vs leaving those other guys to shoot the ball without a defender 8 feet from them.


Duncan against OKC this year
5-13, 11 pts
5-16 13 pts
5-13 16pts

He's not worthy of a double team from OKC. 6 of his 42 shot attempts were blocked. That's a high %.

A couple of counterpoints to that.

1. Postseason Tim Duncan > Regular season Tim Duncan
2. Granted it's been a couple months since these teams last played, but my recollection is that OKC was doubling Duncan. Dejaun Blair had some of his best games of the season against OKC and I've got to believe that's a direct result of extra attention being given to Duncan.
3. The guy starting next to Duncan these days is a much bigger offensive threat than Dejuan Blair.

[Aztecfan03]

I don't see the benefit of it, tbh. The rebounding edge of Diaw over Leonard at the 4 isn't that substantial and he's not aggressive enough to take advantage of Durant in the post. Even though he's got the weight, Durant has a massive advantage in wingspan to counter that, and I think the refs will protect him down there. And it's not like Bonner will back down Durant.

Unless Diaw buries Durant in the post every trip, what do we gain from that?

Also, not sure how much Harden and Sefolosha even play together. I think Fisher is more of their smallball guy.

He is saying have Leonard on Durant, so im confused what you are saying.

You are probably right about fisher for small ball though.

[tesseractive]

True - Ibaka's man to man defense was one aspect at which he really needed to improve - and he has, very much so. Still, his weak side help and shot blocking is still his main asset. Ibaka was voted onto this NBA all defensive team by the league's coaches, not media idiots who just look at stats. Ibaka is flat out a game changer defensively. Anyone who thinks otherwise has not seen enough of Ibaka. The coaches around the league recognize his impact on the defensive end, despite any shortcomings he might have in some areas.

OK, but remember -- in the Spurs motion sets, both Duncan and Diaw are moving around all over the half court. If he edges off either one of them to be in a position to protect the paint, the Spurs are getting easy baskets. Keeping Ibaka in a position to be able to do the kind of damage he's used to doing is going to be nearly impossible.

The fact that he's a weak man defender but an excellent help defender is all the more reason to run sets where he has to commit to being primarily a man defender.

[Aztecfan03]

Just to answer your questions, mathmatically 7'5" (89 inches) is 8.53% larger than 6'10" (82 inches). So he should've been on the list if that was the case. If they're listing him at 6'9", then the gap is even greater at 9.88%.

So either his wingspan is smaller than 7'5" and he's not on the list, or he's just not put on the list for some reason.

I looked up his draft express stats and it says he's 6'9" even (6'10 1/4" with shoes), and has a wingspan of 7'4 3/4th". So that's 9.12% according to draft express, and should be right where Marshon Brooks is.

the chart uses height w/shoes. So durant would be less than that 8.53%( which wouldn't have made the list anyways.)

[Aztecfan03]

- How can a team that swept the reigning champs and went 3-1 vs. Lakers have less momentum that a team that swept the lowly Jazz and the injured Clips? And no I don't count regular season winning streaks. (not to mention Harden's injury)

- As of today Manu is not Spurs best swingman. Far from it.

- Live by the 3 die by the 3

This series will come down to the following:
- can Duncan still dominate opposing bigs?
- can Durant be contained?
- can Manu improve his game to at least match Harden?

you keep putting way too much stock into them beating the Mavs and Lakers, tbh.

[tesseractive]

I don't see the benefit of it, tbh. The rebounding edge of Diaw over Leonard at the 4 isn't that substantial and he's not aggressive enough to take advantage of Durant in the post. Even though he's got the weight, Durant has a massive advantage in wingspan to counter that, and I think the refs will protect him down there. And it's not like Bonner will back down Durant.

Unless Diaw buries Durant in the post every trip, what do we gain from that?

Also, not sure how much Harden and Sefolosha even play together. I think Fisher is more of their smallball guy.

OK, so the Spurs have Duncan, Diaw, Leonard, Ginobili, and Parker on the floor. The Thunder have Ibaka, Durant, Harden, Fisher, and Westbrook.

Who on Earth is Fisher going to guard? Fisher guarding Parker or Ginobili is a sick joke. Kawhi is probably the least potent Spur offensively, and he's got 6 inches on Fisher and is a lot faster besides at this point in Fisher's career.

[thunderfan]

OK, but remember -- in the Spurs motion sets, both Duncan and Diaw are moving around all over the half court. If he edges off either one of them to be in a position to protect the paint, the Spurs are getting easy baskets. Keeping Ibaka in a position to be able to do the kind of damage he's used to doing is going to be nearly impossible.

The fact that he's a weak man defender but an excellent help defender is all the more reason to run sets where he has to commit to being primarily a man defender.

Valid point. I only recall Ibaka mainly paired with Blair, who I take it is fairly different on offense than Diaw. Ibaka is not a weak man defender. He's just not. Great? No. Weak? Also a no. On the flip side to your point, also keep in mind that Ibaka covers ground unlike any frontcourt player you'll see in the NBA so...he very often makes up for any defensive lapses by him or his teammates on that ability alone. Ibaka's not your primary concern here in this series, but he's a definite factor. Just as, for instance, OKC hasn't seen a PG like Parker in the playoffs this year, SA has not seen a frontcourt defensive player like Ibaka..and they will have to make adjustments accordingly.

[thispego]

you keep putting way too much stock into them beating the Mavs and Lakers, tbh.

'cheguevara' doesn't know shit so don't worry about him.

[Mugen]

good to have Thunder fans on the board. I hope they're better than Seattle fans.

[thunderfan]

We're the nicest fans in the NBA! lol Well, that's what Jimmy Goldstein says anyways.

[cheguevara]

'cheguevara' doesn't know shit so don't worry about him.

by all means be my guest and give us mortals your technical breakdown of the series

:lmao

[cheguevara]

We're the nicest fans in the NBA! lol Well, that's what Jimmy Goldstein says anyways.

http://www.i-mockery.com/halloween/greatest/pics/poltergeist2b.gif

[Manu-20]

yes, he has dominated a young Jazz frontline and an injured/shitty Clippers frontline. my point is can he still dominate a much superior OKC frontline?
LOL :rollin

[Manu-20]

yes, he has dominated a young Jazz frontline and an injured/shitty Clippers frontline. my point is can he still dominate a much superior OKC frontline?
LOL :rollin

[cheguevara]

OKC Frontline >> Jazz/injured Clips

[thunderfan]

OKC's frontline is easily better than that of the Clippers. I don't see how you could really dispute that. Griffin is mediocre (at very best) on the defensive end.

[ace3g]

A major key to the series is to challenge Durant on both sides of the court, test his strength, have SJAX post him up a few times per game. This prevents him from roaming on defense and creating fast break opportunities.

[slick'81]

ibaka is a much better weakside defender then d jordan

jordan looked like a dumb fck tyring to cover the weakside v the spurs

[crc21209]

OKC Frontline >> Jazz/injured Clips

Defensively yeah, but not offensively. Millsap, Jefferson, & Favors >>>>> Ibaka and Perkins.

[tesseractive]

Valid point. I only recall Ibaka mainly paired with Blair, who I take it is fairly different on offense than Diaw. Ibaka is not a weak man defender. He's just not. Great? No. Weak? Also a no. On the flip side to your point, also keep in mind that Ibaka covers ground unlike any frontcourt player you'll see in the NBA so...he very often makes up for any defensive lapses by him or his teammates on that ability alone. Ibaka's not your primary concern here in this series, but he's a definite factor. Just as, for instance, OKC hasn't seen a PG like Parker in the playoffs this year, SA has not seen a frontcourt defensive player like Ibaka..and they will have to make adjustments accordingly.

You're right -- calling him a "weak" man defender is overstating it. My bad.

And for sure, his ability to cover ground quickly is what makes him so elite as a help defender. It will be a constant battle for the Spurs to keep the players and the ball moving fast enough to keep Ibaka out of the path to the basket. That said... that's what the Spurs do. They move players around like crazy and they put 5 guys on the floor who can pass the ball well. This is almost certainly the toughest offense in the league for Ibaka to try to do what he does best.

[capek]

We're the whitest fans in the NBA! lol Well, that's what Jimmy Goldstein says anyways.

fixed

[coyotes_geek]

^^^ Pretty sure the team we faced in the first round has that honor.

[pgardn]

- How can a team that swept the reigning champs and went 3-1 vs. Lakers have less momentum that a team that swept the lowly Jazz and the injured Clips? And no I don't count regular season winning streaks. (not to mention Harden's injury)

- As of today Manu is not Spurs best swingman. Far from it.

- Live by the 3 die by the 3

This series will come down to the following:
- can Duncan still dominate opposing bigs?
- can Durant be contained?
- can Manu improve his game to at least match Harden?

This was clearly NOT the same Mavs team as last year. Dont insult last years Mavs with this years Mavs. It was a COMPLETELY diff. Mavs team. Kidd is done. Dirk was hobbled. NO CHANDLER, no D inside. And no Barea to shake things up. And there is more. These were the defending champs only in name.

The Lakers... The Lakers...

They are going to blow their team up because they are so damn slow and have absolutely no bench. I can understand you saying its not going to be as easy as other posters think. But to think Dallas and LA are any better than Utah and the Clips has no merit imo.

And live by the 3 die by the 3... are you still in last years Memphis series?

[pgardn]

OKC's frontline is easily better than that of the Clippers. I don't see how you could really dispute that. Griffin is mediocre (at very best) on the defensive end.

Jefferson from Utah was better in the playoffs than any big on OKC, the Clips, and the Lakers (because Bynum does not show in half the games and Gasol quit sick and tired of Kobe).

[Legacy]

No offense, cheguevara ... but you did also 'predict' that The Grizz would come back and get rid of The Clips in the middle of that series. ... But those "injured Clips" took care of business and beat the living shit outta' The Grizz on their own homecourt nonetheless.

And now... here we aaarrrree...

Just sayin'. ;)

[TD 21]

Yes, the Jazz were green. Yes, the Clippers were hobbled. But so far, the San Antonio defense has been sturdy in the postseason. The Thunder, on the other hand, statistically have the worst defense of any team still alive in the playoffs. Yes, they had a relatively difficult road in the first two rounds but it's undeniable that the Thunder have been winning mostly with their offense.

Hollinger summed this up perfectly: "(Side note: Those who argue that the Thunder's romp past the Mavs and Lakers was far more impressive need to look at the standings instead of the jerseys. Dallas and Utah had the same record; the Lakers edged the Clippers by a game.)"

Off. Eff. rankings of the four teams: Clippers 4th, Jazz 7th, Lakers 10th, Mavericks 20th. Yes, Paul and Griffin were hobbled, the Jazz' best three-point shooter inexplicably didn't play and the Lakers' offense progressively improved as the season wore on. But still, this notion that the Thunder have been far more tested is a myth.


Overall, I'm optimistic of San Antonio's chances. It's not going to be easy regardless of what Spurs fans who are blinded by the glare of the 18-game winning streak will tell you. It will require a number of players being at the top of their game. I haven't yet decided on my final prediction but I really do believe the Spurs can do this.

Believe.Nothing says belief like having four days to make a prediction and still not making one. A little gun shy with predictions all of a sudden, aren't we? I guess it's understandable after the debacle that was this: http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=197008

I couldn't resist. :rollin

[Legacy]

... this notion that the Thunder have been far more tested is a myth.


Co-fucking-signed.

[timvp]

Personally, I think we'd want the Thunder to play small. The more the better. Duncan posting up Ibaka is a big-time advantage for us. He's not nearly stocky enough to guard Tim. We'd have post-ups, maybe even draw some double teams, and we could run all kinds of pick and rolls with Tony and Manu, with Green and Leonard on the corners.

It'd be a very open, high-scoring set, but we'd have the shooting advantage and we could hide either Parker or Manu on Fisher, where as the Thunder couldn't hide him on anyone, and Westbrook, Harden and Durant would have to be engaged on every defensive possession. Our two veteran guards could take turns having a blow on defense.

I'm a lot more worried about the Thunder when they play with Perkins and Ibaka together, tbh.I tend to agree. The Thunder's small ball lineup doesn't worry me too much. A trustworthy second bigman next to Duncan -- especially in crunch time -- is still somewhat of a question mark. If the Thunder go small, Pop doesn't have to worry about picking out a second bigman ... he can just go with Duncan and the four hottest perimeter players.

It basically boils down to me being more worried about Perkins and Collison than Fisher, Cook or Sefolosha.


timvp, realistically and statistically speaking, how much success do you think Leonard will have going up against Durant?

It's an intriguing match-up to say the least.If Leonard can hold Durant to about 1.2 points per shot, he'd be doing really good work. Durant is averaging about 1.4 points per shot so far in the playoffs.

In other words, it's fine if Durant scores 30 points as long as it takes him 25 shots to get there.

As for what I think Leonard will do, I really have no idea. I think he'll do reasonably well but we haven't seen him tested at all yet in these playoffs. Who is the best perimeter player he's defended for long stretches so far ... the corpse of Caron Butler?

[capek]

^^^ Pretty sure the team we faced in the first round has that honor.

"Spurs. Killing Whities' hopes and dreams since 4/29/12." :ihit

[timvp]

timvp, Do you think that Pop utilizes Blair at all this series as he's had quite the success this year against OKC? Or is that just Fool's Gold thinking that? Can he be effective after sitting a whole entire series practically?

mandoIf everything goes to plan, I don't think Blair will play a role in this series. The Spurs need to space the court and Blair is the exact opposite of a floor-spacer.

That said, if things start headed south for whatever reason, Blair could be an intriguing curveball. He has the bulk and strength to get inside of Ibaka and score on him pretty easily. For example, if the three-point accuracy disappears and Pop is searching for another way to put points on the board, going to Blair may be something he tries.

Outside of that, though, Blair's role won't change.


- How can a team that swept the reigning champs and went 3-1 vs. Lakers have less momentum that a team that swept the lowly Jazz and the injured Clips? And no I don't count regular season winning streaks. (not to mention Harden's injury) :lol @ ignoring the roll the Spurs are on.


As of today Manu is not Spurs best swingman. Far from it.Of course he is. It's not even close.


This series will come down to the following:
- can Duncan still dominate opposing bigs?
- can Durant be contained?
- can Manu improve his game to at least match Harden?-Most of Duncan's value will be on the defensive end.

-Durant won't be contained. The hope is he doesn't totally explode.

-Ginobili doesn't necessarily need to match Harden's stats. For example, if they are trapping him or collapsing in the paint, it's totally acceptable for Manu to go into a facilitating role that doesn't involve much scoring.

[Solid D]

Most intriguing matchup for me is the leadership of the sixth men: Manu Ginobili and Kimbo Slice Harden. How will those minutes impact each game?

[vander]

Of course he is. It's not even close.


playoff on court / off court stats beg to differ, significantly

[timvp]

timvp, do you see Brooks gambling by having Harden start if they lose their first two games?If I'm Brooks, I probably start Cook in place of Sefolosha. That keeps Harden on the bench and then allows Sefolosha to play more of his minutes against Manu.

Let's hope it takes Brooks a few games to figure that out.

(BTW, OKC ultimately needing a lineup adjustment makes the first two games even more important for the Spurs. Gotta jump on them before Brooks figures out his starting lineup makes no sense against the Spurs.)


Nothing says belief like having four days to make a prediction and still not making one.Patience. :wakeup


A little gun shy with predictions all of a sudden, aren't we? I guess it's understandable after the debacle that was this: http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=197008

I couldn't resist. :rollin :lol That was some good ish, if I may say so myself.

[Spurminator]

This post is so good it actually concerns me that it's on the World Wide Web and available for anyone, such as the OKC coaching staff, to read.

[Solid D]

Hollinger summed this up perfectly: "(Side note: Those who argue that the Thunder's romp past the Mavs and Lakers was far more impressive need to look at the standings instead of the jerseys. Dallas and Utah had the same record; the Lakers edged the Clippers by a game.)"

A look at the standings and stats to compare the playoff strengths of those teams doesn't cut it with me. The playoff experience of Kobe, Gasol, Bynum and, when he was there, Artest/Peace or Dirk, Terry, Kidd and company means far more to me post-season.

[DPG21920]

Exactly. Okc beat champions.

[ace3g]

ESPN NBA 2K12 Simulation:

http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/tech/post/_/id/734/nba-2k12-simulation-spurs-vs-thunder

[emanueldavidginobili]

This post is so good it actually concerns me that it's on the World Wide Web and available for anyone, such as the OKC coaching staff, to read.

[romsho]

Outstanding post. I think your point about Westbrook having to work at both ends of the floor is a huge key...I don't think he or anyone on their roster can stop Tony Parker.

In the Clipper series, they actually did a decent job of staying in front of Parker, limiting penetration and disrupting the pick n roll with Paul, Mo Wiliams and Bledsoe...that type of personnel non existent on OKC.

[Paranoid Pop]

This post is so good it actually concerns me that it's on the World Wide Web and available for anyone, such as the OKC coaching staff, to read.

Not sure if serious tbh, there's almost nothing related to possible ajustments because there's just not much room for them.

They can go small and start someone different at the 2. We want them to go small the way Tim's playing.

Regarding the 2 spot, you can say Sefolosha is wasted on Green but that's only half the story because Harden's offense will be much more efficient against Manu who will have the hardest time staying in front of him the way he's playing D. Our best 2 defender is wasted on Sefolosha as well thus the whole point doesn't really make much sense to me.

[therealtruth]

Not sure if serious tbh, there's almost nothing related to possible ajustments because there's just not much room for them.

They can go small and start someone different at the 2. We want them to go small the way Tim's playing.

Regarding the 2 spot, you can say Sefolosha is wasted on Green but that's only half the story because Harden's offense will be much more efficient against Manu who will have the hardest time staying in front of him the way he's playing D. Our best 2 defender is wasted on Sefolosha as well thus the whole point doesn't really make much sense to me.

Good point. It works both ways. D. Green is a better offensive player than Sefolosha but that's not why he starts. The Spurs will probably use TP, him, and KL liberally against Westbrook.

I find it interesting that Dirk said that they lacked playmakers against the Thunder. The Spurs basically start 4 playmakers. Then most of the guys of the bench can make plays and get their own shots.

[senorglory]

Did anyone see nytimes article which concluded, with statistical suooport, that okc loses offensive rebounding prowess when playing small lineup? Pretty heady stuff.

[timvp]

Regarding the 2 spot, you can say Sefolosha is wasted on Green but that's only half the story because Harden's offense will be much more efficient against Manu who will have the hardest time staying in front of him the way he's playing D. Our best 2 defender is wasted on Sefolosha as well thus the whole point doesn't really make much sense to me.

The aspect you're overlooking is that Danny Green isn't a one-dimensional defensive specialist like Sefolosha. Sefolosha is scoring 8.5 points per 40 minutes in the playoffs. Green is scoring 16.8 points per 40 minutes. There's a huge difference between these two players ... with the main difference being Green's value isn't solely tied to his defensive matchup.

If Sefolosha is on the court with no one to defend, he's basically a less accurate version of Bruce Bowen. Add in the fact he usually plays limited minutes and it makes no sense for Brooks to start him against the Spurs. Let's hope he doesn't figure that out until later in the series.

[G-Dawgg]

OKC suffers from Miami Heat syndrome.... Outside of their big 3, nobody is a real threat to put up scoring numbers... The Spurs on the other hand can have a full roster of players that could go ape-shit on any given night.. A big reason for this is because of how the Spurs equal opportunity system is run and how they move the ball around.

Also most formidable teams are masterminded by an excellent coach. That is an advantage the Spurs also clearly hold. Popovich will outcoach Scotty..

Imo depth, and coaching will be the 2 deciding factors in this series.

[Legacy]

Exactly. Okc beat champions.


"Champions" that didn't show up.




LMAO @ all the doubters/chickenshits.

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

I'm excited to see what scheme Pop comes up with for defense.

Coach Brooks...I'm still not sure what he does with this team. I'm not saying he's a bad coach, I just can't put a finger on what stamp, if any, he has put on this team other than just trying to make everyone get along. He's let Westbrook try to take over games a la Kobe for years now. I'd think a strong-minded coach would have put an end to that shit years ago.

So if Pop can force Brooks to make changes, then I think that is a great start for the series, in theory, because I don't think he's had much experience having to do much coaching other than babysitting. Of course, I don't want them to be changes that actually help their team. :lol

[cheguevara]

This was clearly NOT the same Mavs team as last year. Dont insult last years Mavs with this years Mavs. It was a COMPLETELY diff. Mavs team. Kidd is done. Dirk was hobbled. NO CHANDLER, no D inside. And no Barea to shake things up. And there is more. These were the defending champs only in name.

who said they were? This mavs team was still better than Jazz/Injured Clips



The Lakers... The Lakers...

They are going to blow their team up because they are so damn slow and have absolutely no bench. I can understand you saying its not going to be as easy as other posters think. But to think Dallas and LA are any better than Utah and the Clips has no merit imo.


once again these lakers as shitty as they were would not have lost to the Jazz or injured Clips in a series.

[cheguevara]

No offense, cheguevara ... but you did also 'predict' that The Grizz would come back and get rid of The Clips in the middle of that series. ... But those "injured Clips" took care of business and beat the living shit outta' The Grizz on their own homecourt nonetheless.

And now... here we aaarrrree...

Just sayin'. ;)

that's correct. I predicted Grizz were going to come back and win when the series was 1-3. Well my bold prediction almost came to fruition since Grizz forced a game 7. But alas shame on me. It looks like those game 7s for a team that has been fighting elimination are just impossible (see Spurs/Mavs 06) :(

[Facts]

Overall, I'm optimistic of San Antonio's chances. It's not going to be easy regardless of what Spurs fans who are blinded by the glare of the 18-game winning streak will tell you. It will require a number of players being at the top of their game. I haven't yet decided on my final prediction but I really do believe the Spurs can do this.

Believe.

.


You lose more knowledge about the game during your morning constitutional than 99% Lakers fans will ever possess. If basketball knowledge and strategic insight were gold, there would be companies lining up to buy your septic tank.

[xellos88330]

Valid point. I only recall Ibaka mainly paired with Blair, who I take it is fairly different on offense than Diaw. Ibaka is not a weak man defender. He's just not. Great? No. Weak? Also a no. On the flip side to your point, also keep in mind that Ibaka covers ground unlike any frontcourt player you'll see in the NBA so...he very often makes up for any defensive lapses by him or his teammates on that ability alone. Ibaka's not your primary concern here in this series, but he's a definite factor. Just as, for instance, OKC hasn't seen a PG like Parker in the playoffs this year, SA has not seen a frontcourt defensive player like Ibaka..and they will have to make adjustments accordingly.

The Spurs have made adjustments all season long against strong closeouts. That is the main reason why Diaw is so damn effective for the Spurs. Diaw is a legitimate 3pt threat, Ibaka MUST close out on him quickly. Diaw is also a good ball handler/passer. If Ibaka closes out too quickly, Diaw will drive past him and leave him completely out of the play, and can either score himself or get an easy interior pass, or a kickout to the corner three from a collapsing defender. This also gives him great box out position on Ibaka. The play of Diaw is going to be crucial against the Thunder.

I am not saying this is exactly how it will play out, but the Diaw/Ibaka matchup is more key to me than any other. If Diaw can break down the Thunder defense, the Thunders only interior advantage against the Spurs will be effectively compromised. Once again, this is about my opinion and idea of how things will take place. Ibaka could make me eat my shit, but that is why the game is played. :toast

[024]

hopefully we can see some of this elite defense timvp brushed upon. spurs will need to tighten their defense because it's a matter of when not if the spurs' jump shots will stop falling. as they get deeper in the playoffs, their hands will be a bit shakier and the mental pressure becomes heavier. there will be a few games where the spurs will shoot horribly and the only way to recover is to play excellent defense.

it's hard to judge the spurs' level of defense the past two series. the jazz and clippers' offense in no way compares to the thunder's. we don't really know if spurs defense improved or if they simply faced struggling teams.

however, the spurs have slowly added the personnel to play above average defense and even parker improved. replacing jefferson and blair with leonard and diaw at the starting spots have reaped dividends. the media constantly praises the spurs' efficient offense while the spurs' defense flies under the radar. i still believe defense wins championships and hope pop has been secretly disciplining the spurs into playing hard nosed defense once again. i want to see pop unleash the defense onto the thunder like a card he's been holding back.

[therealtruth]

hopefully we can see some of this elite defense timvp brushed upon. spurs will need to tighten their defense because it's a matter of when not if the spurs' jump shots will stop falling. as they get deeper in the playoffs, their hands will be a bit shakier and the mental pressure becomes heavier. there will be a few games where the spurs will shoot horribly and the only way to recover is to play excellent defense.

it's hard to judge the spurs' level of defense the past two series. the jazz and clippers' offense in no way compares to the thunder's. we don't really know if spurs defense improved or if they simply faced struggling teams.

however, the spurs have slowly added the personnel to play above average defense and even parker improved. replacing jefferson and blair with leonard and diaw at the starting spots have reaped dividends. the media constantly praises the spurs' efficient offense while the spurs' defense flies under the radar. i still believe defense wins championships and hope pop has been secretly disciplining the spurs into playing hard nosed defense once again. i want to see pop unleash the defense onto the thunder like a card he's been holding back.

That eight minute stretch against the Clippers shows the defensive potential of this team. I don't think it would have been possible in the past. The Clippers weren't just missing shots. The Spurs were forcing them to miss.

[therealtruth]

I'm excited to see what scheme Pop comes up with for defense.

Coach Brooks...I'm still not sure what he does with this team. I'm not saying he's a bad coach, I just can't put a finger on what stamp, if any, he has put on this team other than just trying to make everyone get along. He's let Westbrook try to take over games a la Kobe for years now. I'd think a strong-minded coach would have put an end to that shit years ago.

So if Pop can force Brooks to make changes, then I think that is a great start for the series, in theory, because I don't think he's had much experience having to do much coaching other than babysitting. Of course, I don't want them to be changes that actually help their team. :lol

I believe the Thunder are pretty good when Westbrook takes over.

[TD 21]

A look at the standings and stats to compare the playoff strengths of those teams doesn't cut it with me. The playoff experience of Kobe, Gasol, Bynum and, when he was there, Artest/Peace or Dirk, Terry, Kidd and company means far more to me post-season.

I don't necessarily disagree, I'm just saying the extent of the gap that's been portrayed between the competition is a myth. But it is funny, though. The past few seasons, when many remained steadfast that the Spurs weren't contenders, I never heard when someone beat them in the playoffs about how difficult it was because of their championship experience. Now the Spurs and Lakers (and to a lesser extent, Mavs) have swapped places, yet they're still being built up for what they've done in the past.

[timvp]

Zach Lowe on SI gave a very important stat:

The Thunder allowed the fourth most corner three-pointers this season.

That could potentially be HUGE. The Spurs live off of corner three-pointers. That could also explain why the Spurs have shot >50% on three-pointers against the Thunder over the last two seasons.

If a team doesn't defend the corner threes against the Spurs, they are usually doomed, tbh. The Grizzlies, for example, made it a point to eliminate corner threes last year in the playoffs ... and we all remember how well that strategy worked.

Please, please, please keep ignoring those corner threes, OKC.

[ducks]

well thunder covered threes well for most part but spurs made some big ones in 4

[Facts]

Overall, I'm optimistic of San Antonio's chances. It's not going to be easy regardless of what Spurs fans who are blinded by the glare of the 18-game winning streak will tell you. It will require a number of players being at the top of their game. I haven't yet decided on my final prediction but I really do believe the Spurs can do this.

Believe..

That would be a 19-game winning streak, not 18.


:flag: