Why the Spurs Might Lose and Final Prediction - Spurs vs. Thunder Playoff Preview

[timvp]

I don't like writing about the Spurs possibly losing. First of all, I think the Spurs are going to win this series. Secondly, I don't enjoy doubting a team that has played so well for so long. And, simply, it's not fun.

This isn't about having the appropriate fear or anything like that because this Spurs team is as locked in as humanly possible. They know what's at stake; they know this is probably their last legit chance.

But the Thunder have real shot at winning the series. How much of a shot? After looking at this matchup at every angle I know possible, I give OKC somewhere between a 40 and 45 percent chance of advancing to the 2012 NBA Finals.

The Spurs face some generic potential pitfalls that could derail the team at any time. Injuries, of course, remain a chief concern for a team that is relatively brittle. An ill-timed slump by a key player or two could make it much more difficult to score and ultimately prove fatal. A team-wide shooting slump is another way this could all end badly.

However, those pitfalls aren't what concern me about this series. What concerns me is that Oklahoma City plays in such a manner that is perfectly suited to sidestep San Antonio's strengths on defense.

On defense, if you boil down all their philosophies, the Spurs basically have three tenets:

1. The Spurs never rotate off of a strong-side three-point shooter in the corner. If the Spurs send a double-team, it's almost always from the weak-side. As a result, they are able to limit the number of three-pointers their opponents shoot -- especially threes from the corners.

2. The Spurs position and rotate their defenders with the goal of eliminating easy passes. By playing stellar transition defense, the Spurs limit easy passes even further. San Antonio will give you lanes to dribble with the ball or allow you to isolate on the perimeter, however the number of catch-and-shoot opportunities are severely limited. As a result, San Antonio has been fantastic over the years at limiting assists.

3. The Spurs make it a point to avoid fouls. The coaches teach the players to keep their hands up and to limit contact away from the ball. As a result, the Spurs are always among the best in the NBA at keeping opposing teams off of the free throw line.

With those tenets in mind, if your goal is to construct a team to defeat the Spurs, you'd want a team that doesn't rely on three-pointers, doesn't rely on assists and is able to get to the free throw line regardless of opponent.

That blueprint was exactly what the Mavericks followed to overcome the Spurs back in 2006. Those Mavs didn't need three-pointers or assists to score and they were great at getting to the free throw line against any and all teams. And their strategy worked; the 2006 Spurs were the last great Spurs team that didn't win a championship.

Fast forward to the 2012 Western Conference Finals. Which Spurs playoff opponent of the past do these Thunder most play like? Unfortunately, it's the 2006 Mavericks.

The Thunder are only slightly above average in three-pointers attempted and three-point percentage. OKC doesn't need threes to put a lot of points on the board. To compare, the Spurs have hit 23 more three-pointers than the Thunder in the playoffs even though they've played one less game.

When it comes to assists, or the lack thereof, the Thunder are in a league of their own. During the regular season, Oklahoma City was the only team in the NBA that recorded an assist on less than half their made field goals. Only 49.7% of their field goals required an assist.

This season, the Spurs once again led the league in limiting assists. But, even though the Spurs were far and away the league leader in this category, the number (51.4%) is still higher than the Thunder's rate. In other words, the Thunder already play the way the Spurs try to force their opponents to play.

(Back in 2006, there was only one team that recorded an assist on less than half of their baskets: yes, those Mavs.)

During the regular season, the Thunder were the best team in the league at getting to the free throw line. They averaged .333 free throw attempts per field goal attempts. The Spurs, conversely, were the second best team at keeping opponents off the line by allowing only .221 FTA/FGA.

At first glance, this could be considered an area that majorly favors the Spurs. San Antonio keeps teams off the line and will thus nullify OKC's strength of getting to the line, right?

I hope that ends up being the case ... but it's far from a certainty.

There was one team better at keeping teams off the free throw line this season: the Lakers, who allowed only .213 FTA/FGA. When the Lakers faced the Thunder in the second round, it was a battle of the best at the getting to the line versus the best at keeping others off the line.

Unfortunately, OKC's free throw rate proved to be virtually impervious. Against the Lakers, the Thunder's FTA/FGA was a very healthy .306. While that number was down slightly from the Thunder's regular season rate, it would have still been in the top five in the NBA in that category this year.

It's a bit worrisome that the Lakers failed at keeping the Thunder off the line, especially since they were about 4% better at doing so than the Spurs were during the regular season.

How important is it for the Thunder to get to the line? Extremely important. In the playoffs, the Spurs are shooting 49.1% from the field to the Thunder's mark of 46.5%. If you give a bonus for three-pointers (eFG%), the disparity grows: 54.8% for SA, 50.6% for OKC. But because the Thunder get to the line so often (24.3 FTA per game) and shoot such a high percentage (84%), OKC's offensive efficiency has been even higher than the Spurs in the playoffs (112.4 vs. 112.0). And it's even more impressive once you consider that Oklahoma City has faced much better defenses in these playoffs than the Spurs.

The hope for San Antonio is that their defense -- compared to the Lakers in the second round -- proves to be more disciplined under duress. Maybe because Pop has been at it so long and has instilled his directives so consistently over the years, the Spurs will be different. The fear, obviously, is that the Thunder are a team (like the 2006 Mavs) that are capable at getting to the line regardless of the opposing gameplan.

As for the Thunder's lack of assists, that's a byproduct of having three superstar offensive threats who can create their own shots. As well as Pop can scheme and how well the Spurs are at reading and blowing up plays, it basically comes down to hoping the Thunder aren't scorching hot from the field. If Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden are at the very top of their game and able to produce in isolations, there's simply nothing you can do. There's no defensive strategy to combat that, as we ultimately saw in 2006 against Dirk Nowitzki. You just tip your hat, pack up your locker and wish the Thunder luck in the Finals.

Thankfully, I don't think that will happen. It might … but I don't see it. As I detailed in why I believe the Spurs will win (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=197897), I think San Antonio has some distinct advantages. And even if the aforementioned traits make life difficult for the Spurs, this team is well-rounded enough to win in a variety of ways.

As for my final prediction, it may come as a surprise after what I laid out above but I'm going to predict the Spurs advancing in five games. While many are forecasting this to be an epic battle that will go the distance, I don't see it that way. These two teams are so different that I just don't anticipate a long, drawn out battle.

If the Thunder's offensive superstars prove to be indefensible and the Spurs can't stop their parade to the free throw line, Oklahoma City will probably make short work of the Spurs. If San Antonio is going down, I think it'd be in flames.

Conversely, if things begin to roll in the Spurs direction, I believe this recent dominance will continue. As long as the Spurs can slow OKC's big three -- even a little bit -- while limiting fouls, that will create the needed fast break opportunities that will kickstart the offense that will commence the avalanche.

The Spurs are Thunder are so similar yet so different. Rather quickly, we'll see one team emerge with a notable advantage. I believe that team will be the Spurs.

Believe.

[Mr. Body]

Good thoughts as always. I worry about the refs giving OKC too many calls.

Do you think Pop might be looking into some reverse-Pop manuevers? If the Thunder's offense plays against the Spurs' defensive strengths, might the Spurs think about trying to switch things up, giving them what they normally try to take away?

[tesseractive]

Wow. Sobering post. But seriously great stuff -- thanks for posting it.

[quentin_compson]

I agree on this series not going to seven games. I think it will be a hard-fought, intense playoff battle, but I don't think it will go the long distance. Let's hope the Spurs take it in five or six.

[Blake]

if Pop plays Bonner

[Mugen]

Great writeup, thanks. I feel better about small ball against the '12 Thunder than the '06 Mavs tbh esp with Kawhi/Jack at the 4 rather than Fin.

[Admidave50]

Great read as always, thanks LJ!

I hope that Spurs can win it 6, I'm planning my San Antonio for the NBA Finals :p

[thispego]

The 2006 mavs were great at getting to the free throw line? or the 2006 wcsf mavs were great at getting to the line? Cause I remember about half of the fouls called in the favor of the mavs that series were absolute utter bullshit. (ok half is embellishing but you feel me)

[td4mvp3]

not sure how you count it as anything but 50-50. after rereading the post you mentioned, the items you point out as being in the spurs' favor seem pretty neutralized by the items you mention here. how do you think the spurs might limit the fouls, that's my big worry after reading this. sigh. i'm a lot less optimistic about the spurs advancing than you.

[rmt]

I've always thought that the Mavs gave the Spurs so much trouble because they're a great jump shooting team which played right into Spurs' defensive philosophy of contested 2s (no 3s and protect the paint - no layups). Same with OKC - Durant and Westbrook have great jump shots. So, if they're on, there's not much Spurs can do. Seems contrary to guard against the very thing that they spend the whole season trying to get other teams to do.

[Kidd K]

I pretty much agree with this. The main concern from my perspective was that limiting OKC's free throws would be the top priority. If we can play our normal defense and not foul, I don't see OKC's offensive efficiency being all that good.

While the Thunder did play two of the better defensive teams in the west in the playoffs so far, here's the problem: Those teams weren't great perimeter defenders. When you have players like Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, Kobe Bryant (very undeserving of his defensive team selection yet again imo), and Ramon Sessions shoring up your perimeter defense, somebody's going to be getting off at all times if you have multiple perimeter threats which OKC has.

OKC's top three offensive players are: A PG, a SG, and a SF.

The Spurs' best defensive positions right now are: SG, SF, and whatever we're calling Duncan nowadays. While I don't think our collective PGs are great defenders (Neal is below average), Parker has been able to contain Westbrook throughout their meetings in the last three seasons, forcing him to shoot 37% and only average 16 PPG. Westbrook's last two games against us have been quite good though, so perhaps the loss of George Hill to stop Westbrook when Parker's resting is going to be a problem. But against Tony, I haven't really seen Westbrook go off on him very frequently.

Mainly I'm hoping the refs don't continuously call ticky tack fouls on us throughout the series, or when the game's close and the Thunder are struggling from the field. Nothing handcuffs your defense like a few quick ticky tack foul calls.


Anyway. . .the good news is, their frontcourt really isn't that impressive. They can't really attack our alleged defensive weakness, so that's a nice plus.

[Manudona]

the 2006 mavs were great at getting to the free throw line? Or the 2006 wcsf mavs were great at getting to the line? Cause i remember about have of the fouls called in the favor of the macs that series were absolute utter bullshit. (ok half is embellishing but you feel me)

i agree

[timvp]

Do you think Pop might be looking into some reverse-Pop manuevers? If the Thunder's offense plays against the Spurs' defensive strengths, might the Spurs think about trying to switch things up, giving them what they normally try to take away?If things start to go the wrong way, Pop will probably try things he usually doesn't do (like double perimeter players, trap the pick-and-roll, etc.) but it'd be too late to try to completely overhaul the defense. Much better defensive Spurs teams tried to change their spots on the fly and failed.


I feel better about small ball against the '12 Thunder than the '06 Mavs tbh esp with Kawhi/Jack at the 4 rather than Fin.Yeah, like 2006 Mavs, this series could feature a lot of small ball. But a few things should help change the outcome:

1. The Thunder will also play small. In 2006, it was usually Small Spurs vs. Big Mavs.

2. The Spurs have a lot of experience playing small since 2006.

3. Those Mavs dominated the Spurs on the boards (IIRC, they outrebounded the Spurs in 6 of those 7 games). This Thunder team isn't as good of a rebounding team as those Mavs.


The 2006 mavs were great at getting to the free throw line? or the 2006 wcsf mavs were great at getting to the line? Cause I remember about have of the fouls called in the favor of the macs that series were absolute utter bullshit. (ok half is embellishing but you feel me)
The 2006 Mavs were really good at getting the line. Top three in the league.

But yeah, some of those calls . . . :smchode:

[LakerLanny]

I agree with TimMVP....Spurs in 5 games.

I don't think this is going to be as tough or as long of a series as many others think, OKC has been living a charmed life of lucky bounces and very favorable officiating and that is due to end.

[Mugen]

I agree with TimMVP....Spurs in 5 games.

I don't think this is going to be as tough or as long of a series as many others think, OKC has been living a charmed life of lucky bounces and very favorable officiating and that is due to end.

Kobe gifting them two games also didn't hurt, tbh.

[Mugen]

:lol just realized the comparing the 12 Thunder to the 06 Mavs is the ultimate wet blanket to SpurFan bravado.

Can't be a coincidence that 06 was the last time Spurs fans felt so good about their team only to have it end in ultimate heartbreak.

Well played :depressed

[timvp]

not sure how you count it as anything but 50-50. after rereading the post you mentioned, the items you point out as being in the spurs' favor seem pretty neutralized by the items you mention here. how do you think the spurs might limit the fouls, that's my big worry after reading this. sigh. i'm a lot less optimistic about the spurs advancing than you.

It's probably close to 50-50 before you factor in the Spurs having homecourt advantage and Pop > Brooks.


I've always thought that the Mavs gave the Spurs so much trouble because they're a great jump shooting team which played right into Spurs' defensive philosophy of contested 2s (no 3s and protect the paint - no layups). Same with OKC - Durant and Westbrook have great jump shots. So, if they're on, there's not much Spurs can do. Seems contrary to guard against the very thing that they spend the whole season trying to get other teams to do.

Good point. That's another similarity (although it kinda piggybacks with the fact that neither team needs assists). For the record, as you suggest, the Thunder are the best shooting team in the NBA on long two-pointers.

[Sean Cagney]

Kobe gifting them two games also didn't hurt, tbh.

HE REALLY DID TOO! This is a true statement.
:lol just realized the comparing the 12 Thunder to the 06 Mavs is the ultimate wet blanket to SpurFan bravado.

Can't be a coincidence that 06 was the last time Spurs fans felt so good about their team only to have it end in ultimate heartbreak.

Well played :depressed

Nah the 04 team killed me worst, they almost did not lose for two months and were on A ROLL up 2-0 ON LA looking unbeatable after sweeping round one... THEN :wow:depressed:depressed, that one sucked.

[timvp]

:lol just realized the comparing the 12 Thunder to the 06 Mavs is the ultimate wet blanket to SpurFan bravado.

Can't be a coincidence that 06 was the last time Spurs fans felt so good about their team only to have it end in ultimate heartbreak.

Well played :depressed
I really didn't want to make the comparison but, tbh, the similarities jump out of the page . . .

[Trainwreck2100]

The FTs are the only reason I fear the thuder

[phyzik]

I just dont see how the Thunder are going to compensate for our ball movement... Matchups aside, I seriously doubt they can stay THAT focused on defense. If this was purely based on matchups I'd agree that the Thunder have the edge.... But its not.

Spurs are playing an alien brand of basketball in the NBA. TEAM basketball. The Thunder may well have the better 3 or 4 top players when compared to the Spurs top players, but they dont have the system the Spurs do and they dont have the pieces to defend that Spurs system.

I've said it before and I'll say it again.... The Thunder are going to get exposed. They just dont have the defense to compete with the Spurs offense of making the extra pass.... No team does.

and our defense isnt exactly shitty either.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

3. Those Mavs dominated the Spurs on the boards (IIRC, they outrebounded the Spurs in 6 of those 7 games). This Thunder team isn't as good of a rebounding team as those

this reason is why the mavericks 06 comparison is a stretch to me.

Those mavericks were forced into countless bad shots that they just rebounded and tipped back in.

1) the lineup we throw at thunder will be better rebounding than the small lineup we threw out against the mavs in 06
2) like you said thunder aren't that great st rebounding


Rebounding is just as key as anything else, and from what we have seen this season, spurs should control the boards this round.

[LakerLanny]

Kobe gifting them two games also didn't hurt, tbh.


You are right about that, those ending were hard to watch for Laker fans and the "officiating" didn't help either.

That honestly would be my biggest concern if I was a Spurs fan, the NBA may rig errrrrrr "officiate" OKC into a longer series than they earn.

[Holt's Cat]

You're making me nerrrrvous.

[roycrikside]

I'm not as worried about the Thunder getting an absurd number of FT attempts for a couple of reasons.

1) Westbrook got 6.6 FTA against the Lakers, but that was with Sessions and Blake, two of the worst defensive point guards in the league, checking him. Parker and Green are both far superior defenders than those guys and should be able to do better about keeping Westbrook in front of them. And they won't take as many foolish fouls as the Lakers guys did.

I also think big man fatigue played a part in some of the fouls Westbrook drew, as the Lakers had to play Bynum and Gasol to death. The Spurs bigs won't be as tired.

2. Durant averaged 6.8 FTA against the Lakers, where he had a significant quickness and length advantage against Artest. Indiana Ron averaged 2.1 fouls per game in the regular season but 3.2 against OKC. Leonard averaged only 1.4 fouls during the regular season and hasn't seen his foul rate increase that much in the playoffs. He's at 1.8, despite playing more minutes per game.

In 104 regular season minutes against the Thunder, Leonard had five fouls. That's five fouls in 3.25 games, or 1.54 a game, if you figure Leonard playing 32 minutes per game. He's much younger, quicker and lengthier than Artest, and I think just a smarter guy overall when it comes to avoiding fouls.

Finally, I think the fact that we play with a stretch four actually will help us as far as not drawing fouls against the drives of Westbrook and Harden. The Lakers had two big bangers, so that's two guys for one of those guards to bump against and draw fouls. The Spurs will have their PF on the perimeter guarding against Ibaka's jumpers and won't be in the lane as much. Diaw and Bonner are both far more comfortable playing defense outside of the paint than a guy like Gasol is.

[roycrikside]

L.J., I see the point you're making as far as OKC's offense vs. Spurs D, but shouldn't you worry about the other end of the floor? Seems to me that the '06 Mavs were a far superior defense (and better defensive rebounders) than the '12 Thunder, and also the '12 Spurs are a superior offense to the '06 Spurs.

[Obstructed_View]

Great writeup, and thank you for the comparison to 2006. So basically if Pop doesn't decide to go away from what's been working and bench the entire center rotation, they should be fine.

[Mugen]

L.J., I see the point you're making as far as OKC's offense vs. Spurs D, but shouldn't you worry about the other end of the floor? Seems to me that the '06 Mavs were a far superior defense (and better defensive rebounders) than the '12 Thunder, and also the '12 Spurs are a superior offense to the '06 Spurs.

Probably why it's a "Why Spurs Might Lose" thread and he picked the Spurs in 5.

[LakerLanny]

The Spurs have done a good job in the past of not putting key players for the opponent to the ft line a lot during a series. They certainly focused on that at times in series vs the Lakers as far as Kobe and I expect Pop to make that a primary focus in this series.

If they keep Durant and Westbrook off the line, there is no way OKC hangs in this series chucking jumpers.

[team-work]

Great write-up as usual, LJ!

What I may disagree is that even if things don't go in Spurs' way, the series may not be necessarily short ( c.f. The 2006 wcsf.) These 2012 Spurs should also fight until it ends.

[KaiRMD1]

Better watch it timvp, your analysis could get plagiarized somewhere but very good points made sir

[maverick1948]

I would like to point out that the 2006 Spurs lost in the WCF because of one simple mental mistake at the end of the game. Manu fouled Dirk with 21 secs left for an and 1, to tie the game. Then of all things to happen, Manu and Tim both missed easy buckets from close to the rim. No foul meant the Mavs would have to foul the Spurs or time would have run out. Also, we had NO bench against the Mavs, we have a strong bench for this series. I remember screaming at Manu to let him go but he tried to block Dirk. I dont think we will see that happen again.

Everyone says we are weaker in the front court. I think it is the opposite. Diaw and Duncan starting with Splitter, Bonner and Blair to sub against Obaka, Perkins and Collison. OKC has Nazi and Cole Alrich as their 4th and 5th bigs. The only true proven subs on the entire team are The Beard and Derek Fisher and he is so old that James Anderson would have a field day with him. So it will be up to the Spurs to stop Westbrook then when Harden enters game keep stopping Westbrook and slow down Hardin. When Westbrook is off the court, the Spurs have to shut down Harden. And they have to rebound on the defensive end so as to keep second chance points from being a problem. Durant is going to score, but the Spurs can keep a fresh body on him for 4 quarters where other teams have not done that.

For my prediction, Spurs in 5 or maybe 6 if we dont stop Westbrook.

[suitedkings]

tl;dr

waiting for the John Carroll version.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Alright, tha timvp officially says we gonna lose.


Time to bust out those bravatars

[Russo21]

From what i've seen the Thunder are mainly a long jumpshooting team. Historically speaking those teams don't go too far. You need easy high % baskets, layups, open threes etc. which the spurs excel at. The Thunder take a lot of long 2's, pullup 18 footers etc. sometimes they fall sometimes they don't. That's not a high % offense in my oppinion. Some nights they fall, some nights they don't.

San Antonio on the other hand, have a great interior game with Timmy Boris and Tiago etc. Tony getting the ball in the paint as well as anyone in the league. We have the midrange game and shoot the three ball as well as anyone else in the nba.

I think our higher % offense and more versatility gives us an edge.

[Russo21]

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/blog/eye-on-basketball/19160679/western-conference-finals-preview-san-antonio-spurs-vs-okc-thunder

i thought this article on cbs was quite good accurate read

[Russo21]

http://www.poundingtherock.com/2012/5/22/3036940/body-language?ref=yahoo

courtesy of the guys at pounding the rock. I enjoyed this overview of our spurs to.

[T Park]

the comment section ruins that CBS Sports article...

[crc21209]

Nice write-up as always timvp. :tu Props. Never really thought of the 06' Mavs comparison either, I found that interesting....

[DeadlyDynasty]

The biggest difference between this Thunder team and last year's is that they're excellent in 4th quarters of playoff games now...they're the opposite of what they looked like against Dallas last year. They have the best HCA in the playoffs and their 3 stars played amazing ball against 2 pretty good defensive teams. People will say they could've lost 5-6 games by now, but wasn't the same true with last year's Mavericks?

As much as some of you think the Spurs will dominate, I'm just not seeing it. I think they'll ultimately win, but the first 2 games of this series will be the most important--and dictate what we're in for.

[DJB]

Let's be honest here. This is the best basketball team I have ever seen. No one, and I repeat NO ONE is beating the Spurs 4 times.

[DeadlyDynasty]

Let's be honest here. This is the best basketball team I have ever seen.

It's good to see the NBA is gaining new fans every year. Welcome:toast

[SA210]

Let's be honest. Pop and his stupid small ball lost to the Mavs in 2006. The refs made it even more difficult with their bullshit calls. If Pop had coached it right we would have been able to overcome that piece of shit Javie and the other zebras.

The defeatist attitudes on Spurstalk right now really disgust me. I'm not blind that we are facing a better opponent than the Clippers and Jazz, but I'm not going out thinking like this.

Spurs are gonna kick some ass.

:flag:

[timvp]

The defeatist attitudes on Spurstalk right now really disgust me.

:lol What bizarro world SpursTalk are you logged in on? It's tough to find a Spurs fan who thinks this series is going seven games, much less find one that thinks the Spurs won't win. Myself included, tbh.

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

Great analysis. The 06 comparison is interesting. I think you've applied just the right amount of wet blanket to temper some fans' irrational exuberance. This will be a great series.

Off topic, but where's TD21? I thought he'd be nitpicking/trolling this thread by now...he must be working hard to find a new angle to complain about. Ha.

[SA210]

:lol What bizarro world SpursTalk are you logged in on? It's tough to find a Spurs fan who thinks this series is going seven games, much less find one that thinks the Spurs won't win. Myself included, tbh.


Actually there are some people on here who have been acting like we should be scared.

But anyway, I think Pop is who messed up in 2006.

[timvp]

this reason is why the mavericks 06 comparison is a stretch to me.

Those mavericks were forced into countless bad shots that they just rebounded and tipped back in.


L.J., I see the point you're making as far as OKC's offense vs. Spurs D, but shouldn't you worry about the other end of the floor? Seems to me that the '06 Mavs were a far superior defense (and better defensive rebounders) than the '12 Thunder, and also the '12 Spurs are a superior offense to the '06 Spurs.

Yeah, it's not a dead-on accurate comparison ... and thus the reason why I think the Spurs in five. There are a lot of similarities regarding OKC's offense and how they score points ... but that's about the extent of it.

Oh, and both teams were good at blocking shots . . .

[timvp]

I'm not as worried about the Thunder getting an absurd number of FT attempts for a couple of reasons... Good points; let's hope they prove to be accurate.


From what i've seen the Thunder are mainly a long jumpshooting team. Historically speaking those teams don't go too far. You need easy high % baskets, layups, open threes etc. which the spurs excel at. The Thunder take a lot of long 2's, pullup 18 footers etc. sometimes they fall sometimes they don't. That's not a high % offense in my oppinion. Some nights they fall, some nights they don't. Their equalizer is their free throw shooting. They get to the line a ton and they don't miss. If you can take away their high rate of free throws, then perhaps they will be inconsistent. But with those freebies, they are as consistent as any offense in the league.

[KD4MVP]

Good writeup, should be a heck of a series.

I got a feeling it will be kinda like the Dallas series last year.

Close games, but SA makes the plays in the clutch, hope i'm wrong.

[mercos]

The only thing that worries me is having Westbrook and Durant (or Harden for that matter) go off like Lebron and Wade did against the Pacers. Short of that I would be shocked if OKC managed to come out on top. The Spurs simply have to many advantages across the board. They own the Thunder. It is a real possibility though, because they are both having amazing postseasons.

[tediousj]

Spurs in 6

[will_spurs]

Most of the series will revolve around FT shooting. That's why the Thunder are where they are right now. 3 players in top 10 in FTA is just insane.

In this way the Thunder could very well be like Miami in the 2006 Finals. I hope it won't be THAT disgusting.

[skulls138]

Blah, blah, blah. The Spurs are like the Patriots, nobody understands how they win, they just do.

[Man In Black]

Spurs in 5.

[z0sa]

Long story short, one hopes the Spurs' propensity for playing as a team on offense while not fouling on the other end of the court will come in handy this series.

I think it will come down to holding down homecourt. The Spurs need to come out and win 2 at a home at all costs. If that happens, I doubt the Thunder can regroup and win 4 out of the next 5. If the Spurs can go 2-0, they win in 6.

The Spurs should play like the championship is on the line tonight. Everyone brings their best effort, no exceptions.

I believe they can.

[100%duncan]

Same here, Spurs in 5. :wakeup

[Durant 35]

If you aren't a pro writer, you should be.

[iManu]

L.J. = Gentle Basketball Genius.

I hope someone from the F.O. always reads and ponders your posts. I often forward them along to my best friend who is an assistant division 1 basketball coach.

:toast

[TD 21]

Good writeup.

I said the Spurs would beat the Thunder in five a long, long time ago. So suffice it to say, I'm not changing my prediction now.

[Budkin]

Biggest omission... Mavs had Avery Johnson and (can't remember his name) that former Spurs staffer that knew their whole system, so the Mavs were always one step ahead. The Thunder have Scott Brooks, and the Spurs have Pop. Spurs in 6.

[Whisky Dog]

The Spurs could lose this series. If they don't play with the precision and energy they've displayed they could lose it. They need to keep the pressure on the thunder to have to perform flawlessly to have a chance against the Spurs. If the Spurs make them have to play perfect basketball they won't keep up.

[timvp]

During the regular season, the Thunder were the best team in the league at getting to the free throw line. They averaged .333 free throw attempts per field goal attempts. The Spurs, conversely, were the second best team at keeping opponents off the line by allowing only .221 FTA/FGA.

Game 1 was .277. That's right down the middle and survivable. :tu

[Obstructed_View]

That mention of "cold shooting" had me thinking in the first half.

[td4mvp3]

the mavs had also beaten the spurs during the 06 regular season, winning it 3 to 1. it really shouldn't have been a surprise that they beat the spurs in the playoffs. spurs have gone 9-2 now against okc. here's hoping it continues.

[td4mvp3]

How important is it for the Thunder to get to the line? Extremely important. In the playoffs, the Spurs are shooting 49.1% from the field to the Thunder's mark of 46.5%. If you give a bonus for three-pointers (eFG%), the disparity grows: 54.8% for SA, 50.6% for OKC. But because the Thunder get to the line so often (24.3 FTA per game) and shoot such a high percentage (84%), OKC's offensive efficiency has been even higher than the Spurs in the playoffs (112.4 vs. 112.0). And it's even more impressive once you consider that Oklahoma City has faced much better defenses in these playoffs than the Spurs.

from adande espn column:
"I couldn't make a layup," Harden said. "I couldn't make a shot."

Even worse, he couldn't make a free throw … because he didn't attempt any.

"It affected me," Harden said. "I live at the line. Getting to the free-throw line and getting easy points, it definitely helps me. I've just got to be ready. Got to be more aggressive at getting to the basket and being able to finish in Game 2."

good call.


As for my final prediction, it may come as a surprise after what I laid out above but I'm going to predict the Spurs advancing in five games. While many are forecasting this to be an epic battle that will go the distance, I don't see it that way. These two teams are so different that I just don't anticipate a long, drawn out battle.

If the Thunder's offensive superstars prove to be indefensible and the Spurs can't stop their parade to the free throw line, Oklahoma City will probably make short work of the Spurs. If San Antonio is going down, I think it'd be in flames.

Conversely, if things begin to roll in the Spurs direction, I believe this recent dominance will continue. As long as the Spurs can slow OKC's big three -- even a little bit -- while limiting fouls, that will create the needed fast break opportunities that will kickstart the offense that will commence the avalanche.


so after one game, would we say things are rolling in the right direction or should we wait until game 2 to really judge things?

[wut]

It's a bad omen that the refs had Durant going to the line so easily at the end of the game. If he sneezes and gets to the line in San Antonio, things are going to be much worse in OKC.

[Obstructed_View]

the mavs had also beaten the spurs during the 06 regular season, winning it 3 to 1. it really shouldn't have been a surprise that they beat the spurs in the playoffs. spurs have gone 9-2 now against okc. here's hoping it continues.

Did you think nobody was going to check your facts? They split the season series with Dallas because they coasted in the last one. It really shouldn't have been a surprise that they beat the Spurs when the Spurs wouldn't play their centers.

[td4mvp3]

Did you think nobody was going to check your facts? They split the season series with Dallas because they coasted in the last one. It really shouldn't have been a surprise that they beat the Spurs when the Spurs wouldn't play their centers.

lemme check, wouldn't be the first time i missed something...

looks like you're right, must've looked at the wrong team going down the schedule.

[Obstructed_View]

lemme check, wouldn't be the first time i missed something...

looks like you're right, must've looked at the wrong team going down the schedule.

Sorry for overreacting. It was a widely perpetuated myth that the Mavs dominated the Spurs during that stretch. I'll never completely forgive Pop for benching those two guys.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Yeah
That and benching Bruce with 4 fouls in the 4th quarter, game 1 against lakers 2008.are his two biggest mistakes ever

[timvp]

^Even worse, it was three fouls in the third quarter. Spurs were up 20, Bowen got his third foul and Pop inexplicably benched him. Lakers scored the next 14 points with Kobe lighting up Udoka. Season lost.