Nbadan
09-14-2004, 02:46 AM
Wait a minute, hasn't right-wing radio been saying since the convention that the Democrats are so desperate that they have to sling mud to try and make up W's Times Mag gift 11 point lead? This survey says the race is tie, with Kerry leading in swing states, but how can that be?
In IBD/TIPP's first poll of likely voters, conducted Sept. 7-12, both men garnered 47% in a two-man race and 46% in a three-way race. In the latter scenario, independent Ralph Nader would take just 3% of the vote.
Among registered voters, Kerry holds a two-point edge over Bush, with or without Nader, the poll found.
For polls taken after Labor Day, pollsters consider "likely voters" a more accurate indicator of actual election outcomes.
IBD/TIPP defines likely voters as adult Americans who say they are very likely to vote in November, have a high level of interest in the presidential election and have voted in every or nearly every presidential election.
Other polls show Bush ahead by four to 11 points. The latest Zogby and Fox/Opinion Dynamics polls give Bush a four-point lead. He has a five-point lead in an AP/Ipsos poll and 11 points in the latest Time magazine survey.
"The boost Bush got during the RNC and the aura that surrounded an event marked by clever speeches and hitchless execution may be fading," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD's polling partner.
Meanwhile, fresh questions have arisen about Bush's Vietnam-era National Guard service, though questions also have been raised about the authenticity of documents critical of Bush. Also, U.S. casualties in Iraq have surpassed 1,000, a milestone played up by major media. And Kerry has sharpened his attacks against Bush on Iraq and the economy.
While the candidates may be returning to a dead-even race, Bush still seems to have an edge.
"In close elections such as this, the intensity of candidate support is of utmost importance," Mayur said.
"Both Kerry and Bush have been successful in winning the allegiance of more and more of their respective party's traditional support base. However, the president has consistently drawn stronger support from his supporters than Sen. Kerry.
"Past elections have shown intensity of candidate support strongly influences voter turnout," he said.
IBD's poll shows Bush's intensity numbers are 25 percentage points above Kerry's 60%.
While Bush has locked up his party's loyalty, Kerry still has room to improve. Ninety-four percent of Republicans support Bush, while 83% of Democrats back Kerry.
Teflon President?
Despite heavy criticism from the Democratic campaign, anti-Bush independent groups such as Moveon.org, Michael Moore and much of Hollywood, Americans continue to view the president as a strong leader.
The IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index for September rose 2 points, or 4%, to 50.9, back above the neutral 50 level for the first time since May.
The index includes results from all Americans, not just likely voters. It's made up of three components: a favorability rating, a job approval rating and a leadership score.
While all three components are up this month, the leadership gauge shot up 3.1 points, or 6%, to 56.5. That's the biggest gain since after Bush's 2004 State of the Union speech.
The poll also has good news for Kerry. Among independents, Kerry leads Bush by 10 points, 48%-38%. His lead is 12 points -- 51%-39% -- in battleground states.
Kerry also dominates among urban dwellers (60% vs. 31%), while Bush leads in the suburbs (54% vs. 40%) and rural areas (57% vs. 36%).
Among likely voters who are still feeling the sting of lost jobs or impending job losses, Kerry has a 2-to-1 edge (61% vs. 32%). Investors back Bush 50%-40%, but noninvestors favor Kerry by 15 points.
The zeitgeist still points to a Bush victory. Some 48% of those polled foresee Bush retaking the White House, while only 16% think Kerry will win. Another third (31%) feel the race is too close to call.
Yahoo (http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/040913/feature_1.html)
In IBD/TIPP's first poll of likely voters, conducted Sept. 7-12, both men garnered 47% in a two-man race and 46% in a three-way race. In the latter scenario, independent Ralph Nader would take just 3% of the vote.
Among registered voters, Kerry holds a two-point edge over Bush, with or without Nader, the poll found.
For polls taken after Labor Day, pollsters consider "likely voters" a more accurate indicator of actual election outcomes.
IBD/TIPP defines likely voters as adult Americans who say they are very likely to vote in November, have a high level of interest in the presidential election and have voted in every or nearly every presidential election.
Other polls show Bush ahead by four to 11 points. The latest Zogby and Fox/Opinion Dynamics polls give Bush a four-point lead. He has a five-point lead in an AP/Ipsos poll and 11 points in the latest Time magazine survey.
"The boost Bush got during the RNC and the aura that surrounded an event marked by clever speeches and hitchless execution may be fading," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD's polling partner.
Meanwhile, fresh questions have arisen about Bush's Vietnam-era National Guard service, though questions also have been raised about the authenticity of documents critical of Bush. Also, U.S. casualties in Iraq have surpassed 1,000, a milestone played up by major media. And Kerry has sharpened his attacks against Bush on Iraq and the economy.
While the candidates may be returning to a dead-even race, Bush still seems to have an edge.
"In close elections such as this, the intensity of candidate support is of utmost importance," Mayur said.
"Both Kerry and Bush have been successful in winning the allegiance of more and more of their respective party's traditional support base. However, the president has consistently drawn stronger support from his supporters than Sen. Kerry.
"Past elections have shown intensity of candidate support strongly influences voter turnout," he said.
IBD's poll shows Bush's intensity numbers are 25 percentage points above Kerry's 60%.
While Bush has locked up his party's loyalty, Kerry still has room to improve. Ninety-four percent of Republicans support Bush, while 83% of Democrats back Kerry.
Teflon President?
Despite heavy criticism from the Democratic campaign, anti-Bush independent groups such as Moveon.org, Michael Moore and much of Hollywood, Americans continue to view the president as a strong leader.
The IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index for September rose 2 points, or 4%, to 50.9, back above the neutral 50 level for the first time since May.
The index includes results from all Americans, not just likely voters. It's made up of three components: a favorability rating, a job approval rating and a leadership score.
While all three components are up this month, the leadership gauge shot up 3.1 points, or 6%, to 56.5. That's the biggest gain since after Bush's 2004 State of the Union speech.
The poll also has good news for Kerry. Among independents, Kerry leads Bush by 10 points, 48%-38%. His lead is 12 points -- 51%-39% -- in battleground states.
Kerry also dominates among urban dwellers (60% vs. 31%), while Bush leads in the suburbs (54% vs. 40%) and rural areas (57% vs. 36%).
Among likely voters who are still feeling the sting of lost jobs or impending job losses, Kerry has a 2-to-1 edge (61% vs. 32%). Investors back Bush 50%-40%, but noninvestors favor Kerry by 15 points.
The zeitgeist still points to a Bush victory. Some 48% of those polled foresee Bush retaking the White House, while only 16% think Kerry will win. Another third (31%) feel the race is too close to call.
Yahoo (http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/040913/feature_1.html)