Game 3 Preview - The Danger of Statistics

[timvp]

THE DANGER OF STATISTICS

As the years go along, the NBA is being flooded by more and more statistics. Not that long ago, advanced basketball stats were obscure. Hell, even simple plus/minus numbers weren't widely available until about five years ago.

With NBA teams factoring statistics into their gameplans more than ever, it's fascinating to see how statistical trends impact the way NBA coaches manage games. Personally, while I think stats have their place, I believe they should be used cautiously. Small sample sizes run rampant in the game of basketball and you can end up chasing numerical ghosts if you don't know what you're doing.

After two games of the 2012 Western Conference Finals, I'm convinced that Scott Brooks doesn't know what he's doing. His rotations have obviously been handled in a way that attempted to ride the wave of previous trends that had emerged during prior matchups between the Spurs and the Thunder.

As I've previously noted, the Thunder had a lot of success in the regular season against the Spurs when using small ball. When using lineups consisting of two bigmen, Oklahoma City was dominated by San Antonio. The numbers from the regular season: the Thunder were +19 with small ball lineups and -27 in big ball lineups.

Prior to Game 1, Brooks was obviously made aware of those numbers and tried to cash in by playing small ball for nearly 29 minutes. However, the strategy backfired as the Thunder posted a plus/minus of -10 during their small ball minutes. It turned out that his big ball lineups were better in Game 1. In less than 20 minutes, big ball produced a +7 for the Thunder.

Fast forward to Game 2 and Brooks changed his entire rotation again to chase the latest statistical trend. He went with big ball for practically the entire first 30 minutes of the game. Once more, chasing the trend was unsuccessful. When Brooks finally went back to trying small ball -- an alignment he leaned on all season -- the Thunder were down by 20 points.

This is a classic case of a coach not understanding the danger of statistical trends that are based on small sample sizes. He should have never overhauled his strategy coming into the series based on three regular season games. It was even worse to go to the opposite extreme based on one playoff game.

Great coaches know that the goal should be to maximize your own team's efficiency on both ends of the court. If statistical trends develop over 20 or 30 games, then perhaps it's time to consider a change. In a playoff series, adjustments are needed -- but those adjustments should consider only the here and now. Going into a game with the idea of backward coaching in an attempt to piggyback onto something that was statistically successful earlier will usually result in the ultimate realization that you were actually chasing fluke statistical variance.

All that said, as a Spurs fan, I hope you keep chasing those ghosts, Scott Brooks. Please keep doing what you're doing.


LINEUP CHESS MATCH 2.0

In 29:31 minutes of big ball during Game 2, the Spurs outscored the Thunder 77-53. That's a staggering difference that extrapolates to 125-86 over the course of a game. Considering that the Spurs struggled against big ball in Game 1, that was fantastic to see. No longer does San Antonio have to wonder if they can score versus that alignment.

In Game 2, it was the Thunder's small ball lineups that hurt the Spurs. In 18:29 of small ball, OKC outscored SA 58-43. Offensively, the Spurs were still fine against small ball (that's a pace of 112 points per game). Where it killed them in Game 2 was on defense. Allowing 58 points in 18:29 extrapolates to 150 points over 48 minutes. That type of defense won't get it done, to put it kindly.

As the teams head into Game 3, should the Spurs be concerned about the Thunder's small ball lineup? It's difficult to be too concerned. The Spurs have faced OKC's small ball for 47:23 this series and have scored 118 points during that time, which is obviously a healthy amount of points.

While the Spurs were porous defensively against that alignment in Game 2, there were extenuating circumstances. The Thunder were in a desperate, run-and-gun mode for much of the final quarter and a half -- an unsustainable model over an entire game. OKC also went to the free throw line a ton during that time.

Personally, I remain relatively unconcerned with the Thunder utilizing a lot of small ball. The Spurs can score against it and their defense has a good chance of holding the Thunder to at least around a pace of 100 points per game, which will likely be enough considering the success the Spurs should be having on the other end.


FIXING THE LITTLE THINGS

Even though the Spurs won Game 2, they weren't very good at taking care of the little things.

1. Turnovers. The Spurs turned it over 14 -- an acceptable amount. However, the Spurs only forced ten turnovers. Considering that the Thunder are the most turnover-prone team in basketball, there's really no excuse to lose the turnover battle.

2. Rebounding. The Spurs grabbed only 67.3% of the available defensive rebounds in Game 2. That is much too low. During the regular season, the Spurs had a defensive rebounding percentage of 76% -- the top mark in the NBA. Since the league average against the Thunder was 72.2% in the regular season, the Spurs should really never be lower than that number.

3. Transition defense. The Thunder scored 26 fast break points on Tuesday night. In the regular season, they only averaged 16.3 fast break points. The Spurs need to do a much better job of forcing OKC to score in their halfcourt sets.

4. Free throws. The Spurs allowed the Thunder to post a ridiculous .409 FTA/FGA in Game 2. The Thunder averaged .333 FTA/FGA in the regular season, while the Spurs allowed only .221. San Antonio has to be much more judicial about their fouls. They simply can't afford any loose ball fouls or away from the action fouls against this team. To win on the road, the Spurs are probably going to have to hold the Thunder to less than .300 FTA/FGA.

Fix those little things and the Spurs would force the Thunder to play a near perfect game to get a win.


HOME SWEET HOME

The Thunder are 5-0 at home during the playoffs, winning by an average margin of 10.2 points. During the regular season, they were a very respectable 26-7 at home.

Since Oklahoma City is a young squad, it's no surprise that they play much better in front of their home fans. During the regular season, they averaged 100.1 points on the road but 106 points at home. Their three-point shooting goes through the roof -- from 33.2% to 38.4%.

Of their Big 3, Harden is the one who plays much better at home. Serge Ibaka also sees a large boost in his stats playing in OKC. Virtually all of their role players shoot better.


KEYS TO VICTORY

-Sustain the early run. The Thunder will come out breathing fire. The Oklahoma City fans are rabid. It's safe to say they are enjoying their new toy. Be ready for the early run. Withstand it.

-Keep pushing it. Historically, the Spurs have made it a priority to slow down the pace when playing on the road. But everything points to these Spurs playing their best when the pace is elevated. As long as San Antonio is playing good transition defense, there's really no such thing as too fast with this team.

-Maximize depth. The Spurs are unquestionably the deeper team. During the guts of the game, if the Spurs can get quality minutes from their bench players, that will allow the closing lineup to retain more gas for the final push.

-Trust the process. As long as the game is close in the fourth quarter, the Spurs should like their chances. They've been able to score late in games virtually every time they've needed a basket. If it comes down to a battle of execution in the fourth, San Antonio should have the advantage.

-Keep doing what you're doing. While the winning streak isn't important, the fewer games the Spurs can play in these playoffs, the better. It'd really be a shame to let OKC run away with a victory. Giving this Thunder team any sort of life is dangerous. Very dangerous.

Come out focused and be prepared for the most difficult challenge yet.

Live in the moment.

Believe.

[SA210]

I hope the Spurs beat their ass on their home-court.

[capek]

To think I ever though SR was a good Spurs forum. :lmao

Nice writeup :tu

[polandprzem]

Nice timvp - your dedication is superb


As I envision game three as most guys do, OKC will be on fire in the 1st and spurs would have to fight back to have a chance, push push push and take the lead in the 4th.
Important thing at the begining for the spurs is to limit the turnovers as much as possible to the degree of making it a slow mud pace. Concentrate on D and hit board like crazy /if we do not need transition in 1st. As I can see it.

Let's see how Pop gonna figure it out.

Thunder are an emotional team. Let's get them down and screw their heads with diferent tempos. If the spurs can make a leak in their heads and fill it with doubts. Make the spurs team invincible. And ultimate sweepers!
Spurs have good chance.

Of course that's optimistic. The spurs still need to play this game. And the spurs sometimes have a let down games.

Absolutely important will be for our team will be how TD handle inside game.
Overall we need inside presents now when OKC gonna play more athletic small ball.
I see Sefolosha getting more minutes. /Possible they will change starting lineup - it's important for a young team to have something they can feed of - changing a linup is one of the things/


B4 the series started I did not knew what to expect, but I was hoping the spurs can end it in 5 and my dream is to sweep the Thunder.
Frankly IMO even when the spurs gonna sweep all thye playoffs I don't know if they gonna get the props they deserve/?/

[Dingle Barry]

I foresee a big game from Timmy. I also expect the Thunder to come out scorching hot. Hope we can weather the storm.

[BillMc]

Great job. The quality of your writeups surpass anything on ESPN or CNNSI. Easily.

[gilmor]

Great job. The quality of your writeups surpass anything on ESPN or CNNSI. Easily.

That's an understatement. I don't even read ESPN nor CNNSI.

I only read LJ's writeups..

[therealtruth]

Good writeup. I think the Spurs really need to work on improving the little things. OKC is a good windup for the Finals as far as the importance of limiting live ball turnovers.

[100%duncan]

Damn, your points hit bulls eye. I agree with everything you said basically if we play at least good in all those categories it will demand perfect play from OKC.

[objective]

I'm waiting to see if Blair gets some minutes should things go awry instead of Bonner. I could be imagining things, but I think Blair looks slimmer on the bench (maybe it's his current haircut). Maybe he's been putting the work in to slim down the past 40 days or so (David Thorpe on a Hornets podcast last week mentioned that Blair had put back on 30-40 pounds since his draft, and we can all see it).

I'm thinking Blair because

A. He's had some very good games against OKC in OKC

B. Bonner has problems getting his shot off and rebounding at home so much that I can see him being a huge disaster in front of that crazy crowd.

Blair can be a monkey wrench in OKC's plans of switching everything on smallball, provided he's not too fat to jump for rebounds or dunk like he was most of the year.

Could just be a feverdream of mine though.

[SpursIndonesia]

The way Scott Brooks doing his coaching job, i expect this line up will see A LOT of action tonite:

Ibaka
Durant
Sefolosha
Harden
Westbrook

bench:

Collison, Fisher, Cook

And OKC big three will play no less than 40+ minutes each. Perkins will only play token minutes (i really hope TD will make the best of it).

[Russo21]

Can't wait!!

[Russo21]

For the Spurs, even though being up 2-0 we still have a lot of room for improvement, we haven't played a flawless 48 minutes yet. Just like TimVP stated, turnovers, rebounding, transition D and free throw shooting could all be improved upon. We're up 2-0 despite lacking in those area's. That's a good sign. Hopefully we can keep improving, we're on a good streak but i don't think we've peaked yet. Scary

[Ginofan]

I really believe this is a key game (not that every other playoff game isn't but you know what I mean). If the Thunder are going to win a game it's going to be this one. They need that boost from their home court to get their confidence going, if the Spurs can withstand the surge and get this win, I have no doubt a sweep could be in order!

[benefactor]

Good thoughts. As long as they don't get down too big early on they've got a shot.

[TDMVPDPOY]

i think pop is going to hack someone in these away games

[MmP]

man, if i start a local baskeball team here, can i hire you as an assitant? i heard some relatives of yours were argentine. you could hang around here, get to meet the country. :lol

[Maddog]

THE DANGER OF STATISTICS


KEYS TO VICTORY

-Sustain the early run. The Thunder will come out breathing fire. The Oklahoma City fans are rabid. It's safe to say they are enjoying their new toy. Be ready for the early run. Withstand it.


Believe.

I think this is absolutely key.
It did not happen in game 3 of the semifinals. Yeah they overcame it. But not sure they can against the Thunder.

[Manu-20]

Spurs should win this game but like many here I fell this game will be a very important one and the hardest of the two OKC games for the spurs.

[therealtruth]

For the Spurs, even though being up 2-0 we still have a lot of room for improvement, we haven't played a flawless 48 minutes yet. Just like TimVP stated, turnovers, rebounding, transition D and free throw shooting could all be improved upon. We're up 2-0 despite lacking in those area's. That's a good sign. Hopefully we can keep improving, we're on a good streak but i don't think we've peaked yet. Scary

The Spurs are finally feeling some adversity despite winning both games since the Thunder are their toughest opponent so far. I actually feel this could end up being the NBA Finals.

[Keepin' it real]

I love it when the Spurs play on the road in the playoffs against a team with a rabid fan base. This should be the most hostile crowd since Hornets '08. Looking forward to seeing how the Spurs handle it.

[hater]

no need to see any statistics. spurs probably have a -3 underdog spread in game 3. don't even need to look up the odds.

[Naelven]

Great job. The quality of your writeups surpass anything on ESPN or CNNSI. Easily.

I agree and it has been lasting for years.

Thank you !

[Jimcs50]

-Sustain the early run. The Thunder will come out breathing fire. The Oklahoma City fans are rabid. It's safe to say they are enjoying their new toy. Be ready for the early run. Withstand it.


True, the Thunder fans are by far the best fans in the NBA. College atmosphere, the remind me of fans at Cameron Indoor, with the way the scream the whole game. Wish SA had those fans.

That said, these Spurs seem to flourish away from home, they seem to take great pleasure in quieting the home crowds. (what is their record on road lately, something like 22 of last 27 or something?)

Like you sad, the Thunder are going to be pumped up and loaded for bear starting out, so SA needs to withstand that initial energy burst and stay within let's say 6-9 points in first half. If they can do that, then I think when Thunder see that the Spurs are close to even in the game in the 3rd Q, they will start to push some and start making mistakes that SA will take advantage of and grab the lead that they will not relinquish.

I say Spurs win game 110-101

[K-State Spur]

I think this is absolutely key.
It did not happen in game 3 of the semifinals. Yeah they overcame it. But not sure they can against the Thunder.

I'm positive they can't overcome that against the Thunder.

Luckily, I feel good about Spurs chances of not being outscored 3:1 in the first quarter tonight.

[Legacy]

Time to shut those OKC fans' mouths up tonight!


Cannot wait for this game!!


Thanks again for the superb write-up, timvp. :D





:flag: :flag: :flag:

[urunobili]

awesome pre game article! I would have added that is difficult that Harden could have a better game against us than what he did.

[jag]

timvp is a boss. Nice work

[Bulwark]

Great job. The quality of your writeups surpass anything on ESPN or CNNSI. Easily.
John Carroll thinks his stuff is just as good.

[Basketball Power]

I'm confident the spurs win tonight, they're not afraid of playing at OKC because last time they were there they whopped their ass

[Obstructed_View]

Scott Brooks is going to let the conventional wisdom tell him how to coach, so it's a definite bet that whatever he was criticized for not doing last game, he's going to overdo it in this game.

Number one priority for tonight is to weather the early storm. It's nice to have a team that's truly never out of it.

[ShoogarBear]

Great writeup.

You made valid points about the trap of using small sample sizes, but at some point we all do it, to wit:


In 29:31 minutes of big ball during Game 2, the Spurs outscored the Thunder 77-53. That's a staggering difference that extrapolates to 125-86 over the course of a game. Considering that the Spurs struggled against big ball in Game 1, that was fantastic to see. No longer does San Antonio have to wonder if they can score versus that alignment.


The Spurs struggled in game one, did well in game two, and you chose to believe what happened in game two.

I don't disagree with that conclusion, but the point is that statistics can only be used in the context of what you see on the court. You can figure out Gary Neal is a bad defensive matchup on Russell Westbrook in three minutes, you don't need a large sample size.

[maverick1948]

"-Keep doing what you're doing. While the winning streak isn't important, the fewer games the Spurs can play in these playoffs, the better. It'd really be a shame to let OKC run away with a victory"

Of everything you said, this is the most important statement. Stats from one game are irrelevent. Looking at what the Spurs have done in the 10 playoff games, you can see we have NOT changed very much from what we have been doing during the season. Points, rebounds, turnovers, blocks, etc., are all close to what we averaged during the regular season. If we had played one game that we scored 140 points or dominated the boards with 60 rebounds, I would say that we have to adjust to get our game back, but we are running along doing exactly what we have done all year.

MANU= mid season form (44 games/82 regular season games)

:lobt::lobt::lobt::lobt::lobt2::lobt2:

[Agloco]

The last road loss with the Big 3 playing was March 17th.......

The last one before that? Jan 29

:wow

As good as they are at home, they are even better on the road.

That said, I think they are overdue for a bad game. Hopefully all of the bad juju goes out in the same one.

[TE]

The last road loss with the Big 3 playing was March 17th.......

The last one before that? Jan 29

:wow

As good as they are at home, they are even better on the road.

That said, I think they are overdue for a bad game. Hopefully all of the bad juju goes out in the same one.

:depressed

Sadly, I am inclined to agree with this. If our role players hit their shots and play like they usually do, we win. Our big three have to all bring to have a chance.

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

I'm waiting to see if Blair gets some minutes should things go awry instead of Bonner. I could be imagining things, but I think Blair looks slimmer on the bench (maybe it's his current haircut). Maybe he's been putting the work in to slim down the past 40 days or so (David Thorpe on a Hornets podcast last week mentioned that Blair had put back on 30-40 pounds since his draft, and we can all see it).

I'm thinking Blair because

A. He's had some very good games against OKC in OKC

B. Bonner has problems getting his shot off and rebounding at home so much that I can see him being a huge disaster in front of that crazy crowd.

Blair can be a monkey wrench in OKC's plans of switching everything on smallball, provided he's not too fat to jump for rebounds or dunk like he was most of the year.

Could just be a feverdream of mine though.


Given the recent lineups, Blair doesn't seem to have much of a chance, obviously, but if things go haywire, I don't think it's a crazy idea. His weakness is defense - which is what we want to focus on, so I'm not ready to go this direction. But if he came in and did well like he's done in the past? It could easily confuse Brooks and cause some second guessing.

[DMC]

Blair has been out too long to be effective at anything planned. The benefit of using Blair would be in things he does that he was not coached or taught to do, like offensive rebounds or putbacks.

If we get a couple early fouls on the Thunder, we need to bring in Tiago in hopes they are stupid enough to try to get into the bonus. I don't think any coach intentionally gets into the bonus, but Brooks is a different breed of cat.

[temujin]

Yes, "statistics" based on a tiny sample, with arguably no relevance (Irrelevant RS games, Spurs starting Blair and Jefferson, no Diaw, Manu nor Jack), and in the total absence of anything remotely looking like controls,
are not very reliable.

Surprise!

[maverick1948]

How many of us remember the regular seasons over the last 15 years? Spurs begin to come together late in the season to make playoff runs. Happens every year. We start out slow and build to the last 20 games or so. Look at where we would be if this were not a lockout year. 66 regular season and 10 playoff games, we would be peaking about now for the playoff run. Looks to me like we are in the drivers seat for these playoffs. UNLESS, LBJ and DWad get calls like they have against Boston.

:lobt2::lobt2::lobt2::lobt2::lobt:

[ElNono]

thanks!

[RodNIc91]

I think its safe to say not only the spurs are streaking but you are as well. Nice work timvp keep up the good work. :cheers

[TDomination]

awesome pre game article! I would have added that is difficult that Harden could have a better game against us than what he did.


The last road loss with the Big 3 playing was March 17th.......

The last one before that? Jan 29

:wow

As good as they are at home, they are even better on the road.

That said, I think they are overdue for a bad game. Hopefully all of the bad juju goes out in the same one.

That is insane. What an amazing run.

But I think spurs had their bad game already. Game 3 vs clipps. Thing is, this team is so deep, so good, that it didn't take them to the next game to rebound from a bad outing, they did it that same game.

And spurs still have not played that great this series. Individuals have, like parker and manu, but as a team we've been just okay for the majority. Too many TO's is the biggest one.

But I do worry about thunder going crazy and shooting over 60% for the game.

[FromWayDowntown]

Game 3 Officials -- Dan Crawford (crew chief), Bill Spooner, Derrick Stafford

Dan Crawford (11th playoff game in 2012; 266th career playoff game; 49th conference finals game)

The Spurs are 26-13 in playoff games officiated by Dan Crawford (11-8 on the road, 3-2 in conference finals during the Duncan era). Since 2007, the Spurs are 5-3 in playoff games officiated by Crawford and only 1-3 on the road. They lost Game 6 at Memphis in the 2011 WCFR, won Game 3 at home over Dallas in the 2010 WCFR, lost Game 1 at LAL in the 2008 WCF, won Game 3 at Cleveland in the 2007 Finals, won Game 1 over Utah at home in the 2007 WCF, lost Game 2 at Phoenix in the 2008 WCSF, and won Game 1 over Denver at home in the 2007 WCFR. The other conference finals games with Dan Crawford since 1998: 1999 WCF Game 2 v. PRT (Win), 2001 WCF Game 3 at LAL (Loss), 2003 WCF Game 3 at Dallas (Win -- the "call your own fouls" game), 2007 WCF Game 1 v. UTH (Win), 2008 WCF Game 1 at LAL (Loss). The Spurs have not seen Dan Crawford in a playoff game in 2012.

In the regular season, the Spurs were 4-0 in games that Dan Crawford called. They won at home against Houston in February, won at Philadelphia in February, won at Oklahoma City in March, and won at home against Memphis in April.

Road teams are 24-41 in playoff games officiated by Dan Crawford since 2007; this year road teams are 4-6 (In the first round, Indiana won Game 3 at Orlando, Memphis won Game 6 at the Clippers; in the conference semifinals, Philadelphia won Game 2 at Boston, Oklahoma City won Game 4 at the Lakers)

In their current incarnation, the Thunder are 1-2 in playoff games officiated by Dan Crawford. As noted, they won Game 4 at LAL in the 2012 WCSF, they lost Game 4 of the 2011 WCF at home to Dallas, and they lost Game 5 of the 2010 WCFR at the Lakers.

Bill Spooner (8th playoff game in 2012, 86th career playoff game, 12th conference finals game)

The Spurs are 7-7 in playoff games that Spooner has officiated (6-5 on the road, 2-0 in conference finals -- won Game 3 at Dallas in 2003, won Game 2 at Phoenix in 2005). Spooner was part of the officiating abomination that was Game 3 at Dallas in 2006. Since then, the Spurs have only seen him 3 times -- a win at LAC in Game 4 of the 2012 WCSF, a loss at Memphis in Game 4 of the 2011 WCFR, and a win at home over Dallas in Game 6 of the 2010 WCFR.

The Spurs were 1-1 during the regular season in games officiated by Spooner. They lost at Houston in January and won at Boston in April.

Road teams are 13-20 in games officiated by Spooner since 2007. Road teams are 3-4 in Spooner's games this year (Spooner also called Game 3 of the Indiana/Orlando series, which the Pacers won on the road; he called OKC's Game 4 win in Dallas; and, as noted, he called the Spurs Game 4 win at the Clippers in the WCSF).

In their current incarnation, the Thunder are 4-0 in playoff games that Spooner has called, 1-0 at home, and 1-0 in the conference finals. Along with their Game 4 win at Dallas in the 2012 WCFR, the Thunder won Game 2 of the 2011 WCF at Dallas, won Game 4 of the 2011 WCSF at Memphis, and won Game 5 of the 2011 WCFR over Denver. Spooner has called only one Thunder playoff game this year -- the Game 4 win at Dallas in round one.

Derrick Stafford (10th playoff game in 2012, 110th career playoff game, 12th conference finals game)

The Spurs are 12-6 in playoff games officiated by Stafford (3-4 on the road, 2-0 in the conference finals -- won Game 4 at Dallas in 2003, won Game 3 at home over Phoenix in 2005). Stafford has called 2 Spurs playoff games this year -- Game 2 at home against Utah and Game 3 at the Clippers. Obviously, the Spurs won each of those games. Until this round, Stafford has been a crew chief; this is his first playoff game this year in which he will not be the lead official. Since 2007, the Spurs are 3-2 in playoff games officiated by Stafford -- along with the 2 wins this year, the Spurs won Game 5 at home against Phoenix in the 2008 WCFR; they lost Game 2 of the 2010 WCSF at Phoenix and lost Game 1 of the 2011 WCFR v. Memphis.

During the regular season, the Spurs were 1-1 in games that Stafford called, winning at New Jersey in February and losing the game at Portland in February when Pop rested everyone.

Road teams are 15-28 in playoff games officiated by Stafford since 2007. This year, road teams are 2-7 (the Spurs won Game 3 at the Clippers in the WCSF, and Boston won Game 3 at Philadelphia in the ECSF).

In their current incarnation, the Thunder are 2-1 in playoff games officiated by Stafford. They are 1-0 at home and 0-1 in conference finals games. They lost Game 5 of the 2011 WCF at Dallas, won Game 2 of the 2011 WCSF at home over Memphis, and won Game 3 of the 2011 WCFR at Denver.


If you want to go really old school, each of these officials worked a game of the 2005 Spurs/Sonics Western Conference Semifinal series -- D. Crawford worked Game 6 (Spurs win at Seattle), Spooner worked Game 4 (Sonics win in Seattle), Stafford worked Game 1 (Spurs win at home). Only Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Gregg Popovich (and Mike Budenholzer if you want to be really specific), and Nick Collison were part of that series with their current teams; Nazr Mohammad was involved but with the Spurs.

If you want to go really, really old school, Crawford and Spooner each worked games in the 2002 Spurs/Sonics first round series -- D. Crawford worked Game 3 (Spurs win at Seattle), Spooner worked Game 4 (Sonics win at Seattle with Tim in St. Croix for his father's funeral and David Robinson missing the game with his back issues). Only Duncan, Parker, Pop, and Bud remain from that series; Stephen Jackson was with the Spurs that year, but was not on the playoff roster.

[chreph]

I'm waiting to see if Blair gets some minutes should things go awry instead of Bonner. I could be imagining things, but I think Blair looks slimmer on the bench (maybe it's his current haircut). Maybe he's been putting the work in to slim down the past 40 days or so (David Thorpe on a Hornets podcast last week mentioned that Blair had put back on 30-40 pounds since his draft, and we can all see it).



I saw Blair at Little Italy Friday night (eating alone... which I thought was surprising for a single millionare athlete who probably didn't have to worry about playing the next day) and, when he walked by, he looked a quite a bit slimmer. I was surprised at how slim he looked and noticed he was in workout pants and walked with a limp like his legs were sore. Maybe he's been putting in work. Spacing be damned, I'd much prefer Blair to Bonner this series. After the first two games, I'm not sure Bonner is going to get much respect from the Thunder (especially on the road) so I'd rather go with something that COULD work for 10 minutes versus something that we have all seen doesn't work.

[therealtruth]

The last road loss with the Big 3 playing was March 17th.......

The last one before that? Jan 29

:wow

As good as they are at home, they are even better on the road.

That said, I think they are overdue for a bad game. Hopefully all of the bad juju goes out in the same one.

There's no need for a letdown. This is not the same Spurs of past years.

[therealtruth]

Blair has been out too long to be effective at anything planned. The benefit of using Blair would be in things he does that he was not coached or taught to do, like offensive rebounds or putbacks.

If we get a couple early fouls on the Thunder, we need to bring in Tiago in hopes they are stupid enough to try to get into the bonus. I don't think any coach intentionally gets into the bonus, but Brooks is a different breed of cat.

The Spurs need to make sure they get back on defense. Going for offensive rebounds too much could weaken the transition defense.

[emanueldavidginobili]

OKC place will be wild tonight, the 1st quarter will be important and can't come out lazy and need to limit turnovers and have good transition D. Cant wait for this game

[DMC]

The Spurs need to make sure they get back on defense. Going for offensive rebounds too much could weaken the transition defense.
But you take them when you can get them.

Blair is ineffective, even if he gets back.

Also, I think coaches like Brooks understand everything LJ has pointed out here, but they go away from it under pressure. When Brooks relented to the press and said he should have played Ibaka (maybe) in the 4th in game one, that told me a lot about his confidence, and that translates directly to his team's confidence in his decisions. You would never hear coach Pop say he should have done this or that. He makes a choice and lives with the results.

[024]

blair isn't going to play unless bonner airballs all his 3's, misses his defensive rotations by just standing in one place, or breaks a leg.

[DMC]

I don't think Blair would sub for Bonner anyhow. I think he would sub for Tiago.

[Darkwaters]

A win here, even a 1 point win, would be amazing. I've never been an advocate of an OKC sweep, but a win tonight might be enough to make that a realistic possibility. I still think OKC takes this one, but the Spurs are obviously capable of winning any game. Period.

[Spurs Brazil]

Whatever you call it, Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks’ strategy of purposely sending Tiago Splitter to the free-throw line was effective enough in Game 2 that the Spurs are expecting to see more of it tonight in Game 3. Splitter has developed a foolproof plan for dealing with it.

“If that happens I’ll just step to the line and make free throws,” Splitter said after shootaround this morning at Chesapeake Energy Arena. “It’s simple as that.”


http://blog.mysanantonio.com/spursnation/2012/05/31/splitter-hankering-to-be-hacked/

[Obstructed_View]

If Blair had any jumper to speak of whatsoever, he'd be getting Bonner's minutes. If he had Kurt Thomas or Antonio McDyess range, he'd never lack a spot in Pop's rotation.

[cheguevara]

nothing I seen has told me Blair is in any way superior defender than Bonner.

[Obstructed_View]

nothing I seen has told me Blair is in any way superior defender than Bonner.

Also true. As bad as Bonner is, Blair is worse.

[chreph]

I agree that Bonner>Blair in most series but OKC has no low post scoring threat so that point is rendered moot. Neither one of them are going to deter Westbrook, Durant, or Harden when they get in the lane, either, so it boils down to:

Passing, Backdoor Cuts, Possible help on the boards > Standing at the 3-pt line unguarded and still unable to get a shot off to make them pay because OKC can close out quickly IMO.

[Whisky Dog]

I think okc, facing their first real adversity after bringing their A game to game 2 and still losing, will be overly amped for this game to start. If the Spurs take care of the ball and don't give runouts and make them take jumpshots in the half court set to start there will be a pattern of their shots hitting back rim early in the game. I think the Spurs lead after 1 but trail slightly at the half or beginning of the 3rd. After that the extra juice early will be gone and it'll be a matter of whoever executes the best in the end of the 3rd and down the stretch of the 4th. I feel the Spurs have the advantage in that area.

[TDomination]

http://blog.mysanantonio.com/spursnation/2012/05/31/splitter-hankering-to-be-hacked/

Didn't popovich tell Duncan or somebody that if they miss a ft they have to paint his car or something like that? or they get to paint it a certain color.

I can't really remember but I remember something between Pop and the players involving Ft's and his car lol.

[Vic Petro]

If the Spurs are within 2 possessions at the 3 minute mark, they are winning the game.

[LongtimeSpursFan]

I'm waiting to see if Blair gets some minutes should things go awry instead of Bonner. I could be imagining things, but I think Blair looks slimmer on the bench (maybe it's his current haircut). Maybe he's been putting the work in to slim down the past 40 days or so (David Thorpe on a Hornets podcast last week mentioned that Blair had put back on 30-40 pounds since his draft, and we can all see it).

I'm thinking Blair because

A. He's had some very good games against OKC in OKC

B. Bonner has problems getting his shot off and rebounding at home so much that I can see him being a huge disaster in front of that crazy crowd.

Blair can be a monkey wrench in OKC's plans of switching everything on smallball, provided he's not too fat to jump for rebounds or dunk like he was most of the year.

Could just be a feverdream of mine though.

Honestly I dont see Blair being on the same court with Timmy or Tiago.

Im wondering if Pop would consider subbing Blair in for Tiago if OKC decided to do the intentional fouling. Since Blair is a good passer and pick/roll type player you would get the similar skill set as Tiago but better free throw shooting.

[Penya]

Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. tbh.

[DPG21920]

This was a really great article, appreciate the work. Without doing the work you did I've been saying a few of your points in particular that after evaluating the body of work, OKC has had a lot of unsustainable play and still lost. Spurs if they ever clean up the boards and fouls, should win if they play characteristically.

[DPG21920]

I said that if the Spurs can win Rebs, keep to's within 5 of okc and FTs as well they should win all those games.

[Bill_Brasky]

I agree that Bonner>Blair in most series but OKC has no low post scoring threat so that point is rendered moot. Neither one of them are going to deter Westbrook, Durant, or Harden when they get in the lane, either, so it boils down to:

Passing, Backdoor Cuts, Possible help on the boards > Standing at the 3-pt line unguarded and still unable to get a shot off to make them pay because OKC can close out quickly IMO.

You left out the part where Blair gets the ball in the post and proceeds to fumble around and throw up a bad shot.

[TD 21]

After two games of the 2012 Western Conference Finals, I'm convinced that Scott Brooks doesn't know what he's doing. His rotations have obviously been handled in a way that attempted to ride the wave of previous trends that had emerged during prior matchups between the Spurs and the Thunder.

I could have told you this going in. I've long said that Brooks has no idea what he's doing and is in over his head. There's not much separating him from Del Nego, but he doesn't receive a tenth of the scrutiny Del Negro does. That's because he just so happened to inherit a team that was going to progress to the level they're now at on a similar timetable, whether he was coaching them or someone else was. It's the getting them to the next level that actual coaching is required for. He's incapable of this and that's why he needs to be fired. I think Presti realizes this too, which is why he's (curiously) yet to extend him. He probably wants to fire him, but knows he has no cliche reason he can sell to the media and his own team. If they get swept in this series, that could give him the impetus.


-Maximize depth. The Spurs are unquestionably the deeper team. During the guts of the game, if the Spurs can get quality minutes from their bench players, that will allow the closing lineup to retain more gas for the final push.At this time of the year you can't worry about that. Especially with how rested this team is and how much more rested they can become by wrapping this up in five or less. As you alluded to, a team this good (even if they are overrated, as I've long maintained), you don't give any life to. If the opportunity is there to take this game and effectively end the series, you spare damn near no expense.

That being said, if the Thunder hit the Spurs with a hay maker early, expect to see the majority of the bench get a longer than usual 1st half run. I actually wouldn't be surprised either way if they did.