SA210
05-31-2012, 03:48 AM
ju4Vyny2BN4
Incredible developments have emerged spelling out how Romney may not have actually taken the nomination, after all.
Even with news circulating (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/05/30/bloomberg_articlesM4T0580D9L3501-M4UGJ.DTL) like wildfire that Romney secured the Republican nomination with an alleged win in Tuesday's Texas Primary, it seems as though this may not actually be the case. Ironically enough, Romney still may not have even taken Texas (http://youtu.be/ju4Vyny2BN4), yet.
After a careful comb through the numbers, how the race is playing out and what delegate totals are emerging from the states, it seems as though Romney currently has only around half of the 1,144 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination.
So, why is the 'national' media acting this way? Are they incorrectly still using the 'estimated' delegate totals, based on the initial caucuses and primaries from each state, while ignoring the actual delegate totals emerging as the states finally begin to conclude their weeks-long delegate selection processes?
Every 4 years the GOP does the exact same nomination process and all 50 states play their roll in that process. Some states conclude rather quickly, some rather slowly. Most of the states, however, have some sort of post-caucus/primary delegate selection process that can take, up to, a couple months to complete.
This virtually renders the ultimate outcome unattainable until the vast majority of the states have fully concluded their delegate selection process. Until then, it is virtually impossible to know exactly what each candidate has, in terms of delegate totals.
It is, however, possible to keep track of how the candidates are doing and how many delegates they are likely winning as the states progress in their delegate selection process. Who is taking the delegates at each state's county, then district, then state conventions ultimately determine how many delegates each candidate will receive from each state.
At this juncture, according to one of the the only sites on the internet (http://thereal2012delegatecount.com/) currently dedicated to keeping a tally of the actual delegate totals emerging from each state, Romney has around 600 delegates, Paul around 200.
However, this starts to become an issue because what seems to be emerging from many of the states is the fact that Ron Paul is coming out with the majority of the delegates in quite a few of them.
So far, Paul seems to have taken the majority of delegates in, at least, 11 or more states (http://youtu.be/AqVkf8aW7AE), Romney in only 19. Santorum and Gingrich are virtual non-factors with ultimately very few, to no 'state' wins between them.
Even though it is likely Romney will gain many more delegates in the run up to the RNC, Ron Paul will also continue to rack up delegates as well, leaving it extremely unlikely Romney will amass the total needed to win the nomination.
The totals gained by the other candidates that have been factors in this GOP nomination cycle, along with incredible amount of Ron Paul delegates emerging from the states, all likely equal an amount far exceeding what Romney could afford to have lost in order to have secured 1,144 delegates by Utah's final primary.
Especially considering there is no such thing as a “bound” delegate at the national level, despite what some are trying to claim, Romney is not only nowhere near locking up the nomination, a brokered convention is now almost a guarantee, leaving the Ron Paul Revolution squarely in the driver's seat.
http://www.examiner.com/article/romney-did-not-win-nomination
The REAL Delegate count
http://thereal2012delegatecount.com/
:hat
Incredible developments have emerged spelling out how Romney may not have actually taken the nomination, after all.
Even with news circulating (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/05/30/bloomberg_articlesM4T0580D9L3501-M4UGJ.DTL) like wildfire that Romney secured the Republican nomination with an alleged win in Tuesday's Texas Primary, it seems as though this may not actually be the case. Ironically enough, Romney still may not have even taken Texas (http://youtu.be/ju4Vyny2BN4), yet.
After a careful comb through the numbers, how the race is playing out and what delegate totals are emerging from the states, it seems as though Romney currently has only around half of the 1,144 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination.
So, why is the 'national' media acting this way? Are they incorrectly still using the 'estimated' delegate totals, based on the initial caucuses and primaries from each state, while ignoring the actual delegate totals emerging as the states finally begin to conclude their weeks-long delegate selection processes?
Every 4 years the GOP does the exact same nomination process and all 50 states play their roll in that process. Some states conclude rather quickly, some rather slowly. Most of the states, however, have some sort of post-caucus/primary delegate selection process that can take, up to, a couple months to complete.
This virtually renders the ultimate outcome unattainable until the vast majority of the states have fully concluded their delegate selection process. Until then, it is virtually impossible to know exactly what each candidate has, in terms of delegate totals.
It is, however, possible to keep track of how the candidates are doing and how many delegates they are likely winning as the states progress in their delegate selection process. Who is taking the delegates at each state's county, then district, then state conventions ultimately determine how many delegates each candidate will receive from each state.
At this juncture, according to one of the the only sites on the internet (http://thereal2012delegatecount.com/) currently dedicated to keeping a tally of the actual delegate totals emerging from each state, Romney has around 600 delegates, Paul around 200.
However, this starts to become an issue because what seems to be emerging from many of the states is the fact that Ron Paul is coming out with the majority of the delegates in quite a few of them.
So far, Paul seems to have taken the majority of delegates in, at least, 11 or more states (http://youtu.be/AqVkf8aW7AE), Romney in only 19. Santorum and Gingrich are virtual non-factors with ultimately very few, to no 'state' wins between them.
Even though it is likely Romney will gain many more delegates in the run up to the RNC, Ron Paul will also continue to rack up delegates as well, leaving it extremely unlikely Romney will amass the total needed to win the nomination.
The totals gained by the other candidates that have been factors in this GOP nomination cycle, along with incredible amount of Ron Paul delegates emerging from the states, all likely equal an amount far exceeding what Romney could afford to have lost in order to have secured 1,144 delegates by Utah's final primary.
Especially considering there is no such thing as a “bound” delegate at the national level, despite what some are trying to claim, Romney is not only nowhere near locking up the nomination, a brokered convention is now almost a guarantee, leaving the Ron Paul Revolution squarely in the driver's seat.
http://www.examiner.com/article/romney-did-not-win-nomination
The REAL Delegate count
http://thereal2012delegatecount.com/
:hat