What does playoff history say about our odds?

[said7]

Discuss:

per: Bleacher Report
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1207030-nba-playoffs-series-tied-at-2-2-what-happens-in-game-5-and-the-series


Last night, the Oklahoma City Thunder defeated the San Antonio Spurs, 109-103, and tied their Western Conference Finals series at 2-2.

So here’s the big question: What’s going to happen in Game 5 of that series on Monday night?

To get an idea of what might transpire, let’s take a look at the last 25 NBA playoff games where the series was tied at 2-2. We discover that:

* The home team won Game 5 in 20 of those 25 contests.

* The series ended with the Game 5 winner also winning Game 6 in 14 series.

* The series went to a Game 7 11 times. The home team won Game 7 in nine of those 11 games.

* The team that won Game 5 also won Game 7 seven times.

Here’s a look at those five series where the team winning the series was not the home team in Game 5

NBA Finals, 2010, L.A. Lakers over the Boston Celtics: In the 2-3-2 finals format, the home team Celtics won Game 5. The series then shifted to Los Angeles for Game 6 and Game 7, where the Lakers won both contests.



Eastern Conference Semifinals, 2010, Boston Celtics over the Cleveland Cavaliers: Tied at two games apiece, the visiting Celtics clobbered the Cavs, 120-88, in Game 5 in Cleveland. The Celtics then wrapped the series in Game 6 with a 94-85 victory.



Eastern Conference First Round, 2010, Atlanta Hawks over the Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks stole Game 5 in Atlanta with a 91-87 win and headed home for Game 6 hoping to close out the series. The Bucks lost Game 6 to the visiting Hawks, 83-69. The Hawks won the series with a 21-point win at home in Game 7.



Eastern Conference Semifinals, 2009, Orlando Magic over the Boston Celtics: The home team Celtics won Game 5, then lost Game 6 in Orlando and lost the series when they could not close out the Magic at home. The Magic won, 101-82, in Game 7 in Boston.



Western Conference Semifinals, 2008, San Antonio over the New Orleans Hornets: The Hornets defeated the Spurs at home in Game 5, but the Spurs won the series by winning Game 6 at home, 99-80, and then winning 91-82 in New Orleans.

[Russ]

Eastern Conference First Round, 2010, Atlanta Hawks over the Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks stole Game 5 in Atlanta with a 91-87 win and headed home for Game 6 hoping to close out the series. The Bucks lost Game 6 to the visiting Hawks, 83-69. The Hawks won the series with a 21-point win at home in Game 7.

That's the only series I could find that a team did just what the Spurs would have to do.

In other words, the team with the HCA wins the first two at home, loses the next two on the road then loses Game 5 at home, then wins the last two -- Game 6 on the road and Game 7 at home.

2W -- 3L -- 2W.

Two problems. One, OKC looks like they've turned the corner on the Spurs and can beat them wherever and whenever needed.

Two, the 2012 Thunder are not the 2010 Bucks.

[Bulwark]

That's the only series I could find that a team did just what the Spurs would have to do.

In other words, the team with the HCA wins the first two at home, loses the next two on the road then loses Game 5 at home, then wins the last two -- Game 6 on the road and Game 7 at home.

2W -- 3L -- 2W.

Two problems. One, OKC looks like they've turned the corner on the Spurs and can beat them wherever and whenever needed.

Two, the 2012 Thunder are not the 2010 Bucks.

The spurs aren't the 2010 Hawks either.

[FromWayDowntown]

Since 1990, I count 5 instances in which a team won Games 1-2 at home, lost Games 3-5, and then won Games 6 and 7:


Atlanta did it against Milwaukee in the 2010 ECFR.

Detroit did it against Cleveland in the 2006 ECSF.

Detroit also did it against New Jersey in the 2004 ECSF.

New York did it against Indiana in the 1994 ECF.

Utah did it to Denver in the 1994 WCSF.

I did that research very quickly, so there may be a mistake; I may also have overlooked another example.

[FromWayDowntown]

The spurs aren't the 2010 Hawks either.

I think the more appropriate comparison is that the 2012 Thunder aren't the 2010 Bucks.

[ALVAREZ6]

And the OKC aren't ANY version of the Hornets, either.


:lmao, Spurs = F:lolcked

[ALVAREZ6]

:lol 1 seeds
:lol 2 years in a row
:lol disappointing endings
:lol pussified Spurs crumbling in adversity
:lol Everyone outside Manu, Jax, Leonard, and maybe Diaw has grown one or two vaginas in a matter of days

[ALVAREZ6]

:lol thinking Spurs have a chance in OKC
:lol Stern will ensure OKC gets every 50/50 call
:lol Durant gonna be on fire
:lol Spurs role players will continue to have no confidence

[kobe4life]

:lol I agree it is real funny considering Duncan chokes when he goes up 2-0 while Kobe never chokes a 2-0 lead and that is why Kobe has 5 and Duncan will always have 4.

[Bulwark]

I think the more appropriate comparison is that the 2012 Thunder aren't the 2010 Bucks.
Relatively speaking, if we're going to say the Thunder are better than the 2010 Bucks in our comparative analysis I would hope we could say the Hawks (who won) aren't as good as the Spurs.

[ALVAREZ6]

Relatively speaking, if we're going to say the Thunder are better than the 2010 Bucks in our comparative analysis I would hope we could say the Hawks (who won) aren't as good as the Spurs.

Let's just say both OKC and SA are far and away better than those respective comparison teams. A big part of that is both teams are more talented, and OKC is much more consistent. Their defense is always present. They have several scorers, one of which who obviously can score at will.

AKA, much harder to pull off in this case, vs. a series in which both teams are streakier and inconsistent.

[Bulwark]

Let's just say both OKC and SA are far and away better than those respective comparison teams. A big part of that is both teams are more talented, and OKC is much more consistent. Their defense is always present. They have several scorers, one of which who obviously can score at will.

AKA, much harder to pull off in this case, vs. a series in which both teams are streakier and inconsistent.
That makes more sense.

[Spurs and Mavs fan]

Bear in mind that OKC had only 6% chances of winning this series after they fell behind 0-2. Historical odds might not be very meaningful.

[therealtruth]

:lol I agree it is real funny considering Duncan chokes when he goes up 2-0 while Kobe never chokes a 2-0 lead and that is why Kobe has 5 and Duncan will always have 4.

That's not Kobe that Phil Jackson who's responsible for that.

[therealtruth]

Bear in mind that OKC had only 6% chances of winning this series after they fell behind 0-2. Historical odds might not be very meaningful.

Another thing is the Spurs have rarely looked like themselves since game 3. I don't think the Thunder can beat the Spurs playing to their potential.