Summer 2012: State of the Spurs

[timvp]

The 2011-12 San Antonio Spurs, while they were ultimately unable to win a championship, go down in history as a memorable bunch. On three separate occasions, they posted double-digit winning streaks – including the franchise record 20-game run that extended into the postseason. Although the Oklahoma City Thunder ended San Antonio's torrid push to win the franchise's fifth title, the Spurs come away from the season having learned a number of lessons.

First of all, no matter how well a team is playing, the favorites to win the championship are always the teams with the best players. It's no coincidence that LeBron James and Kevin Durant, the two most unstoppable forces in the basketball world today, are battling in the 2012 Finals. Teamwork, creativity, chemistry and cohesion are all fantastic traits; unfortunately for today's Spurs, dominant players at the top of their craft still reign supreme.

Of the last 32 champions, 27 of those teams featured one of following first ballot Hall of Famers playing at a dominant level: Tim Duncan, David Robinson, Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O'Neal, Dwyane Wade, Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Moses Malone and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. In other words, after this year's Finals, 84.8 percent of the past 33 championship teams will have featured an all-time great at or near his prime.

The other five championship teams in the last 33 year also share a specific attribute: they were dominant defensive teams. The 1979 Sonics and the 2008 Celtics were the best defensive teams in their respective leagues, while the three championship Pistons squads (1989, 1990 and 2004) were the third, second and first best on defense, chronologically.

Thus, the second lesson is that unless you have a transcendent superstar, history tells us your team needs a top three defense to have a legitimate chance to win a championship. For these Spurs, that probably became painfully obvious when the Thunder seemingly scored on every possession in fourth quarters that didn't feature some sort of mistake by Russell Westbrook.

The 2012 Spurs were a fantastic offensive team with a defense that could generously be described as above average. And while Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili were great at points in time during the regular season and the playoffs, none of the three are at the high level of the aforementioned legends. The Spurs weren't just trying to win a championship, they were attempting to shatter the mold that has held true for more than three decades.

WHERE TO GO FROM HERE

A transcendent superstar in peak form isn't galloping into town to the rescue the Spurs anytime soon. There's no prime version of Tim Duncan, David Robinson or George Gervin coming through that door. For at least this summer, there's no draft pick or salary cap space to even dream of such a miracle.

Without the all-time great, history says to concentrate all efforts on becoming an elite defensive team. Last summer, that's the path I thought the Spurs should take. But after watching the 2012 Spurs, I've actually changed my mind.

Even though there is no precedence in the last 33 seasons, I believe the Spurs need to continue down their current path. I believe the Spurs need to try to win it all with an offense-first approach.

Personnel-wise, the Spurs simply don't have any other choice. Parker might have been a top ten defensive point guard in the NBA but he's far from the type of defender you can build around. Father Time has been harsh to Ginobili's D. During the championship years, he was very good at team-defense and at least average individually. Unfortunately, Ginobili is now average at team-defense and usually subpar individually.

The largest change, however, is Duncan's defense. First of all, his defensive ability has eroded over the years. At 36, he's still capable at defending the low block and challenging shots at the rim. But when it comes to aspects that require mobility -- such as defending pick-and-rolls or switching out on the perimeter -- Duncan is below average.

Additionally, the current rules in the NBA and the influx of lethal perimeter scorers blessed with otherworldly athleticism make it very difficult to build an elite defense around a center who isn't exceptionally quick. Duncan is a lot of things but no one would describe his quickness as exceptional. In today's NBA, great defenses are built by complementing star perimeter defenders with bigmen who can seamlessly switch onto smaller players when needed. The Spurs, with Duncan in the middle, can't do that. Add Ginobili's declining defense to the fact that Parker doesn't have the size or strength to improve much past his current level at that end and we arrive an unfortunate truth: there's no pathway to make this Spurs team a great defensive unit.

If the Spurs won't have the transcendent superstar or the elite defense to attempt to win a championship via a traditional route, the Spurs are left with the chore of paving their own road. That road must consist of the best offense in the NBA combined with a defense that, at the very least, is decidedly above average.

CAN IT BE DONE?

After San Antonio's demise, a lot of absolute terms were used when describing their downfall. Teams that rely on offense can't win championships, they said. You can't hitch your wagon to a small, playmaking point guards and expect to be taken to the promised land, they said. They said the core was too old, the role players were bound to fail and the style of play wouldn't hold up during the rigors of the NBA playoffs.

To that I say they were right. Those reasons are all justifiable by the evidence of history. However, I just don't think those declarations are necessarily absolute. Sooner or later, there will come a time when a team shatters the mold on the way to a championship. For proof, just look at the 2012 Spurs. Add a few Ifs to the equation (If multiple role players didn't shrivel under pressure; If Parker caught on fire from the perimeter; If a replacement ref wasn't needed in Game 6 of the WCF; If Duncan and/or Ginobili were able to turn back the clock for two weeks; If the opposition missed a few outside shots) and can anyone absolutely declare that the Spurs had no chance at all to win the championship this season? I don't believe so. Though it was always an uphill battle, a championship was within the realm of possibilities.

Going into next season, the Spurs will once again begin the campaign as a longshot to win a championship. They will need to mesh perfectly, avoid wear, steer clear of injuries, have the playoff matchups break impeccably in their favor, see a couple other contenders fall off the rail and hope to peak at the right time. Or, to put it more simply, have what happened this year happen again next year, with the added difficultly of Duncan and Ginobili potentially falling off a cliff at any second due to their age.

As it stands, even saying the Spurs have a 5 percent chance of winning the 2013 championship is optimistic. Their true odds are probably somewhere between 1 and 3 percent.

REBUILDING IS NOT AN OPTION

Despite the dim outlook, rebuilding right now makes no sense (well, unless Duncan shocks the sporting world and decides to retire). In the NBA, there are only a handful of teams each season that have a chance to win the championship. Right now, the Spurs are in that conversation -- and that isn't something to be thrown away. One day San Antonio will have to take the first step toward a long and painful rebuild. Thankfully, that time has not arrived.

Sentimental and business reasons aside (which there are many), basketball remains the biggest reason why the Spurs need to keep trucking. Many teams, particularly small market teams, would love to switch places with the Spurs right now. A legitimate, though slim, shot a championship with a clean salary cap outlook for the eventual rebuilding project? That's nothing to be upset about.

HOW TO REFUEL

As previously stated, the Spurs need to try to win with offense. With that in mind, I believe that all moves made during this offseason should be decided by offensive fit. For the Spurs to be the best offensive team in the league, they can't afford to have any weak links. It's true that hypothetically an athletic, shotblocking bigman would be a fit defensively, as would a perimeter stopper. However, unless the hypothetical player is also able to play on the offensive end at a high level, it'd be the wrong move.

Defensively, I think the Spurs should rely on growth and tweaks. Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green (if re-signed) and Tiago Splitter should be much better defensively in their second full year in the rotation. Finding a backup point guard better than Gary Neal would be difficult not to accomplish. Plus, even veterans like Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw (again, if re-signed) will be better on that end following a training camp.

I don't believe that wholesale changes are needed at this point. Instead, the Spurs should build off of this season's success and hope beyond hope that they can become the exception to who usually rules the NBA.

[Big P]

We were all waiting for this one...thanks timvp!

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

Great writing, as always. And I agree with all the points. Spurs are not gonna find another foundation player, and it'll be damn hard to find an athletic big to fill their needs. So they should probably work on continuing to boost their already-top-tier offense.

If Lorbek and De Colo are indeed signed as the recent reports claim, how well do you think they fit into that plan?

[bigfan]

Good article TIMVP; and I agree with your points. I just think if we can replace Bonner and Blair with fresh talent Ill be happy. Niether of those guys is terrible but BLair didnt even play in the post season so he is done here and Bonner, well, he has talent that has disappeared every post season. On Green, hes good enough but I would not overpay the guy. I would like to see Diaw and SJ stick around though. Mills is gone and Id keep Neal, he is a good shooter, just a crappy defender and pg. Splitter needs to hit the weight room this off season.

[DMC]

I don't think you can use a team that was backdoor swept in the WCF by a team that's probably going to lose in the Finals as proof of your assertion. The "ifs" are many and every team with an illusion of being on the cusp could use those as well.

Playoffs? Yes.

Finals? No.

Remember, you gave them a 2% chance of winning game 4 or something like that.

[timvp]

If Lorbek and De Colo are indeed signed as the recent reports claim, how well do you think they fit into that plan?I'm working on a Lorbek scouting report in which I'll answer that question in depth. I should be finished in the next day or so.

[timvp]

I don't think you can use a team that was backdoor swept in the WCF by a team that's probably going to lose in the Finals as proof of your assertion.Manner of demise and what that team went on to accomplish doesn't matter much, IMO. Playoffs are about matchps and getting hot at the right time.

Besides, that exact same thing happened in 2004 to the Spurs and 2005 wasn't a sad year. I know having a prime Duncan is the huge difference but the circumstances would have been the same for the Spurs if they lost to the Thunder in 7 and the Thunder went on to sweep the Heat.


Playoffs? Yes.

Finals? No.

Remember, you gave them a 2% chance of winning game 4 or something like that.

I don't see how a conclusion can be reached that the Spurs have absolutely no chance of making it to the Finals. They'll need to be very fortunate again but it's possible.

And 2% in Game 4?

[benefactor]

This year was a complete shock. Now that I'm over the WCF loss I still look back and marvel at what they managed to do when no one could have conceived such a thing at the beginning of the year.

It's now time to do exactly what we did during this season...sit back and enjoy the ride. The championship years are probably over, but we should still get to enjoy quality basketball in SA next season and probably the season after that. They will still win a lot of games and still make the playoffs. Like you said, many teams(and fans of those teams) would love to be in Spur fans shoes.

This team doesn't need rings. They have them. Let's throw expectations out the window yet again and see what happens. Worked out pretty well last season.

[Arcadian]

...the favorites to win the championship are always the teams with the best players.

You can't say this is always true if there is a single exception. The 2004 Pistons come to mind. I'm sure there are other examples (perhaps I'm too young to know of them), but even one exception is enough to break a rule.

I agree with your general point, though, that the best teams usually have all-time great players, and you provided data that show it.


As it stands, even saying the Spurs have a 5 percent chance of winning the 2013 championship is optimistic. Their true odds are probably somewhere between 1 and 3 percent.

Why do you attempt to estimate a priori probabilities? It makes no sense when the phenomenon in question (i.e. winning an NBA title) is so dynamic and dependent on so many variables. The probability could change on a daily basis, so what's the point of declaring it now?

Maybe you're saying something like the following: If we observe 100 parallel universes in which the San Antonio Spurs exist, they should win the championship in 1 to 3 of them. But even that is meaningless...Should we be celebrating the Spurs winning the 2012 Finals in a parallel universe?


REBUILDING IS NOT AN OPTION

Agreed.

[SamoanTD]

When the spurs make the playoffs next year I wan't them to just shit on somebody's parade I hope we get one of the favorites in the playoffs and just shit on them. After that I dont care what happen's lol. But honestly it would be great to see one more banner make it 5 but hey let the dice roll next season and maybe we can catch the NBA slipping one more time.

[Russ]

First of all, no matter how well a team is playing, the favorites to win the championship are always the teams with the best players. It's no coincidence that LeBron James and Kevin Durant, the two most unstoppable forces in the basketball world today, are battling in the 2012 Finals. Teamwork, creativity, chemistry and cohesion are all fantastic traits; unfortunately for today's Spurs, dominant players at the top of their craft still reign supreme.

And yet Israel Gutierrez was castigated in this forum for essentially saying just that.


Without the all-time great, history says to concentrate all efforts on becoming an elite defensive team. Last summer, that's the path I thought the Spurs should take. But after watching the 2012 Spurs, I've actually changed my mind.

Even though there is no precedence in the last 33 seasons, I believe the Spurs need to continue down their current path. I believe the Spurs need to try to win it all with an offense-first approach.


Here, I disagree slightly. I think the Spurs need to get better defensively and not just go for offense. As Pop said during one of his miked time outs during the playoffs, "Don't worry about offense, it will come. Just concentrate on D."


As it stands, even saying the Spurs have a 5 percent chance of winning the 2013 championship is optimistic. Their true odds are probably somewhere between 1 and 3 percent.

I'd put it at at least 10%.



REBUILDING IS NOT AN OPTION

Despite the dim outlook, rebuilding right now makes no sense (well, unless Duncan shocks the sporting world and decides to retire). In the NBA, there are only a handful of teams each season that have a chance to win the championship. Right now, the Spurs are in that conversation -- and that isn't something to be thrown away. One day San Antonio will have to take the first step toward a long and painful rebuild. Thankfully, that time has not arrived.

You got that right. :toast:flag:

[Prime Time]

I still think this team needs more defense. Not crazy good defense but good enough to contain superstars from not going buzurk on us. But the thing is, Spurs don't have the $$ to obtain well-known perimeter defenders. Which is why i choose to go under the radar

One of the guys I'm interested in is DeAndre Liggins. He's young, hard nosed, and a solid athlete. Being 6'6 with an almost 7 foot wingspan this guy's defensive potential is much higher than Danny Green's is IMO. the main let down about his skill set is his shooting, yet Spurs always seem to make bad shooters good. BUT The reason why Spurs wouldn't sign is because he's not very disciplined. He always seems to be trying to do too much, not the type of guy to quickly "get over himself".

Then there's Darius Morris. Most of his game relies on his good BB IQ. great play maker in college but he's just an average defender. When Lakers drafted this guy I thought they had a huge steal, but they didn't play him enough IMO. maybe there's a reason for that. (I didn't watch a ton of laker games so I have no clue how he looked in his 1st season)

[baseline bum]

I agree with most of what you've said, LJ (what a change from last summer, lol), except that you forgot the part about telling Bonner to go play in the middle of I-35.

[tesseractive]

You can't say this is always true if there is a single exception. The 2004 Pistons come to mind. I'm sure there are other examples (perhaps I'm too young to know of them), but even one exception is enough to break a rule.

The 2003-2004 Pistons were not obvious favorites to win the title going into the season unless I'm misremembering.

When you don't have an all-NBA first-teamer leading your squad, a lot of things have to go right for you to be able to win out. When you have Tim Duncan or you have Shaq and Kobe you still need some breaks, but not as many of them.

[Das Texan]

The only real personnel change I'd really want is that redheaded choker finding someone else's postseason to ruin.

[dbreiden83080]

I honestly think Tim should sign a 1 year deal and retire at the end of it. Spurs will have another good reg season and sadly lose in the playoffs again.. Then he can ride off into the sunset.. It's too hard to retire off the year the Spurs just had.. Tim will go 1 more..

[dbreiden83080]

If Tim was just hungry for another ring he would sign with the Heat and make them a 70 win team.. But he is too loyal


God bless him...:toast

[CGD]

it's crazy to think after all this time that next season will be the last stand. I just can't imagine it going further than that with this group, as much as I'd like it.

[ElNono]

This year was a complete shock. Now that I'm over the WCF loss I still look back and marvel at what they managed to do when no one could have conceived such a thing at the beginning of the year.

It's now time to do exactly what we did during this season...sit back and enjoy the ride. The championship years are probably over, but we should still get to enjoy quality basketball in SA next season and probably the season after that. They will still win a lot of games and still make the playoffs. Like you said, many teams(and fans of those teams) would love to be in Spur fans shoes.

This team doesn't need rings. They have them. Let's throw expectations out the window yet again and see what happens. Worked out pretty well last season.

this basically. I'm not mad they might not contend. I'm ok with the farewell tour. I'm also eager to see the progression of promising guys like Kawhi and Danny.

I think the only shot the Spurs might have is improving the defense fairly drastically, and a lot of that will have to happen with important improvement from the younger guys.

On an ideal world, I would like the team to jettison Bonner and perhaps Blair. I'm fairly happy with the rest of the roster.

[therealtruth]

As great as it has been to see the offense the past few season I much more enjoyed seeing the Spurs play defense again. I think that's the key to the 5th Obrien. You can only do so much to coach offense. Shots will fall or not fall. The Spurs have lead the offensive metrics and it hasn't meant much when other teams score just as easily. We've got to get back to defending.

[intlspurshk]

SPURS need to find another assistant coach who can provide better offensive plays than PoP

[chazley]

This year was a complete shock. Now that I'm over the WCF loss I still look back and marvel at what they managed to do when no one could have conceived such a thing at the beginning of the year.

You can try and pretend I didn't say it, but that wouldn't be fair.

[Nathan89]

If you want to focus on offense then you want to trade Splitter. Right?

I've been begging for more Splitter for awhile but I'm now okay with him being traded. The negative is we will lose more games in the regular season. That's where Splitter value is to this team. He won't be playing next to Duncan he will be playing backup to Duncan. In the playoffs even next year if need Duncan will play 36+ minutes taking away much of his value. I'm prepared sacrifice a player with regular season value in a trade for someone that can help in the playoffs.

[Bruno]

The main key is the summer is the PF slot (or C spot if you want to keep calling Duncan a PF).

The type of player Spurs will put at PF will define the whole orientation of the team. Having a PF able to stretch the floor with shooting/passing/driving makes Spurs damn efficient on the offensive end. A PF able to provide some interior defense will make Spur a very good defensive team. How Spurs will fill the PF spot is about 80% of the offseason.

Aside of that, another obvious issue is the backup PG. A little less obvious issue is I think Spurs really miss a player like George Hill defensively. Parker has been damn great defensively in the playoffs but other guards have been between average and awful. Spurs need to add a good defensive guard this summer. Even a player as limited as Royal Ivey would help a lot Spurs in some matchups.

[mountainballer]

if Lorbek can in fact be brought in - and all signs indicate this - the Hill for Leonard plus Lorbek rights trade will go down as one of the best moves of the last 10 years.

Spurs FO gambled on this one much more than they usually are willing to do.

sacrifice a solid young player for a pick is always a gamble. you never know if the player makes the transition and they also couldn't know if Lorbek will ever leave Europe, where he is a star and plays and lives in one of the greatest cities in the whole world.

they pulled the trigger. and won big time.

why I write this? one year ago I wouldn't have seen the option of trading a solid rotation player like Splitter for a pick as a possibility. this year, with the experience from the Hill trade, this looks different.

I think the FO has tasted blood and they do know that this can be a successful strategy to either build for the future and improve the current roster. I do hope the Spurs play this card and wouldn't be disappointed, if this time it doesn't work out as well as last summer. I would be disappointed, if they didn't try.

[polandprzem]

TwTRgDx7xJw

[Slippy]

Excellent read.




Defensively, I think the Spurs should rely on growth and tweaks. Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green (if re-signed) and Tiago Splitter should be much better defensively in their second full year in the rotation

Fingers crossed Tiago is healthy when pre-season comes around.

[Cane]

Good stuff. Kind of depressing that we're talking about needing another PF/C, it's been that way for far too long.

It'll be interesting to see if the Spurs gamble on old vets again like Kevin Garnett for the PF/C and Jason Kidd as the backup PG. That'd be one hell of a veteran last stand :lol

[Russo21]

Fuck, Kidd would be awesome as a backup PG here!! Don't get my hopes up mate lol

[benefactor]

You can try and pretend I didn't say it, but that wouldn't be fair.
lol RMJ

Please post me a quote where you said that the Spurs would get rid of RJ for Jack, sign Diaw and go on three double digit win streaks including one with 20 wins that spilled over into the playoffs.

I'll wait.

[Horse]

With all due respect cause you do a great job, blah blah blah. If we dont have stern screw us we're still playing and I think we matchup better with miami than okc does. End of story.

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

With all due respect cause you do a great job, blah blah blah. If we dont have stern screw us we're still playing and I think we matchup better with miami than okc does. End of story.


Get real. OKC was a better team. And Miami is a better team then them right now. Miami would have kicked the Spurs butts too.

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

if Lorbek can in fact be brought in - and all signs indicate this - the Hill for Leonard plus Lorbek rights trade will go down as one of the best moves of the last 10 years.

Spurs FO gambled on this one much more than they usually are willing to do.

sacrifice a solid young player for a pick is always a gamble. you never know if the player makes the transition and they also couldn't know if Lorbek will ever leave Europe, where he is a star and plays and lives in one of the greatest cities in the whole world.

they pulled the trigger. and won big time.

why I write this? one year ago I wouldn't have seen the option of trading a solid rotation player like Splitter for a pick as a possibility. this year, with the experience from the Hill trade, this looks different.

I think the FO has tasted blood and they do know that this can be a successful strategy to either build for the future and improve the current roster. I do hope the Spurs play this card and wouldn't be disappointed, if this time it doesn't work out as well as last summer. I would be disappointed, if they didn't try.

I agree about trading Splitter if the right deal and player come along.

What is your opinion of Lorbek's game and how it will translate to the Spurs?

[Ocotillo]

You make mention of it in the original post but I would amplify it more than you did and that is this years team was blessed without any injuries and it is just a long shot that next years team will have the same luck.

This was the first playoffs in years that Manu has been healthy and with the other guys healthy as well, it was easy to get excited about our chances.

I just don't see us entering the playoffs next year with the entire roster healthy.

I see why you put the chances of a :lobt2: at 1 to 3%, everything has to go just right and for the most part, it did go just right this year and it still wasn't enough.

[dylankerouac]

Thanks for the article Timvp. I like the potential of this new direction and I hope the franchise continues to gives it another shot, they really got so close this year especially after considering the expectations at the beginning of the season. I look forward to your scouting report of Lorbek.

[024]

honestly, this was the year the spurs could have won the championship in the twilight years of the big 3. the lock out season rewarded consistency, spurs suffered no great injuries nearing the playoffs (with the exception of ford), they miraculously landed the perfect role players, and met teams in the playoffs that they matched up well against. yet they still could not make it. who knows what injuries will come next season, how much better other teams will become. the spurs core will be another year older and another year slower.

the stars don't align any better than this season. they could not make it to the finals even with such fortunate events. this is the end of the big 3 era and the spurs management would be stupid to let their sentiment overpower their logic. they have to break up the big 3 and most likely trade ginobili. you can sit there and ponder over the ifs but the truth is the spurs had most of the balls bounce their way this season and it still was not enough.

[Horse]

Get real. OKC was a better team. And Miami is a better team then them right now. Miami would have kicked the Spurs butts too.

Nonsense we got f'd by the ref in gm 4,5 and even you can't deny gm 6. And just cause miami is beating okc doesn't mean they would beat us. Miami's weaknesses are the Spurs strengths. However you may be right considering stern would certainly sodomize us in the finals against miami.

[timtonymanu]

With all due respect cause you do a great job, blah blah blah. If we dont have stern screw us we're still playing and I think we matchup better with miami than okc does. End of story.

Hey donut boy.

[timtonymanu]

Great analysis, timvp and I agree. As long as Duncan, Ginobili, and Jack are around, rebuilding shouldn't be an option. Yes a few tweaks to the roster and we possibly are the NBA champions right now but there's no Durant or LeBron type of player coming in.

I did enjoy the season and might as well sit back and enjoy the ride like benefactor said.

[timtonymanu]

You can try and pretend I didn't say it, but that wouldn't be fair.

You also said Bonner would be valuable in the playoffs. How did that work out for you?

[polandprzem]

If we want some offense we can go for it and trade for Nowitzki :)

Clutch superstar who is tough cover.


We do not have guys that can go unstoppable.
We had Ginobili and Duncan previously but the time has passed.

I do not see spurs getting any better. Even if, it's still far more difficult to be in such comfortable situation next year as it was this.

The window is closed!

[polandprzem]

When TP takes over it's all about him and team does not matter. That's why you can shut him down and he cannot crate for others.
But still he is top3 PG

[Keepin' it real]

We were all waiting for this one...thanks timvp!


Great writing, as always.


Excellent read.


Good stuff.


Thanks for the article Timvp.


Great analysis, timvp and I agree.

Jesus, what a huge load of man-on-man fellatio. :lol I'll make this quick so you all can get back on your knees in no time.

I agree about continuing to improve the offense. It's fun to watch and really the only legit shot the Spurs have to be competitive, given their aging, or should I say aged, nucleus. Here's what I'm hoping for:



Duncan retires. May he leave us with his legacy intact and still playing at a decent level. Think about it: even with all the coddling and days off from Pop during the regular season, and even with a week off between series in the playoffs, Tim had almost nothing left in the tank in the WCF. Honestly, how bad do you think he will look next season? Let's not go there. Ride into the sunset, big man! And thanks for the memories!
Bonner jettisoned. 'Nuff said.
Green shown the door. His collapse (not a slump, a total COLLAPSE) in the WCF is unforgivable, regardless of his youth. If he'll play for the minimum, keep him, but on the bench. As a consequence of his WCF choke, he should not be allowed to start next season.

Beyond this, let the front office do their stuff. I look forward to seeing who we have next season.

That took longer than I expected. Sorry, back on your knees, fellas.

Spit or swallow??? :lol:lol:lol

[polandprzem]

keep it real



:fight

[timvp]

... Let's throw expectations out the window yet again and see what happens. Worked out pretty well last season.Pretty well said. :tu

The Spurs entered this season with a low amount of expectations and were pretty darn close to going on a run for the ages. It probably won't happen again next year ... but maybe.

With Kawhi added to the mix and some other intriguing options, at least this time the Spurs have some sort of blueprint.


You can't say this is always true if there is a single exception. The 2004 Pistons come to mind. I'm sure there are other examples (perhaps I'm too young to know of them), but even one exception is enough to break a rule. I think you misread what you quoted. I said teams with the best players are the favorites ... not that teams with the best players always win the championship.


Why do you attempt to estimate a priori probabilities? It makes no sense when the phenomenon in question (i.e. winning an NBA title) is so dynamic and dependent on so many variables. The probability could change on a daily basis, so what's the point of declaring it now?My point was to assess the current situation of the Spurs. I thought that estimating their chances of winning a championship next year was an appropriate part of that assessment. Apologies if you think otherwise.


Here, I disagree slightly. I think the Spurs need to get better defensively and not just go for offense. As Pop said during one of his miked time outs during the playoffs, "Don't worry about offense, it will come. Just concentrate on D."IMO, the 2012 Spurs were so good offensively that they never really had to worry about offense. But I think that was due to having personnel that was so talented on offense. The danger is if you shift too far back to defense, the Spurs will again have trouble scoring like 2008 thru 2010.

The way I see if, the Spurs have a much better chance of becoming overwhelmingly elite offensively than defensively. In fact, I don't think it's possible to become elite defensively when 40% of your clutch-time lineup is Duncan and Ginobili.


I agree with most of what you've said, LJ (what a change from last summer, lol), except that you forgot the part about telling Bonner to go play in the middle of I-35.:lol Bonner being eliminated should be a given, IMO. If Pop doesn't finally give up on him ... I don't even know what to say.

And it's not even enough to try to bury him on the bench. The dangerous part about Bonner is he's so good in the regular season that he'll end up winning a spot in the rotation again. But, of course, he'd end up sucking in the playoffs again.

As for comparing this summer to last summer, this summer is much more clear cut in terms of not rebuilding. Last summer I was a little bit unsure. But in retrospect with what we know now, it would have been really dumb to have blown things up. Much dumber than any one of us could have imagined -- mostly due to the addition of worthwhile youngsters and Parker taking his game up another level.

[baseline bum]

Much dumber than any one of us could have imagined -- mostly due to the addition of worthwhile youngsters and Parker taking his game up another level.

And due to dumping Jefferson. I never figured they'd get out of that contract and it was a huge part of why I wanted to completely blow the team up last summer.

[cheguevara]

Let's face reality. 2012 was a miserable failure for the Spurs. :lol calling a team with Bonner memorable. if the 2005 Suns were not able to win it wall, there was no way in hell the 2012 Spurs were going to. Yet, spurs office and coach still tried to cram their offense first strategy.

If they continue doing that next year I predict more doom. plain and simple.

[baseline bum]

Spurs just gotta stay the course and hope for health and for Leonard to have a huge sophomore campaign. I can't wait to see him with a training camp under his belt and a full-time starting position this coming season.

[ElNono]

One thing I expect is for some teams in the West to play much better next season. Don't forget this was a shortened season, with basically no training camp, and I think that hurt certain teams with new coaches (ie: Lakers) or teams that added/swapped new important pieces (ie: Clippers, Dallas). I thought the Spurs benefitted from the fact that most of their guys were already part of the program going into the season, so there was some continuity there.

[baseline bum]

Let's face reality. 2012 was a miserable failure for the Spurs. :lol calling a team with Bonner memorable. if the 2005 Suns were not able to win it wall, there was no way in hell the 2012 Spurs were going to. Yet, spurs office and coach still tried to cram their offense first strategy.

If they continue doing that next year I predict more doom. plain and simple.

2011 was a miserable failure. 2012 they weren't that far from winning the West (of course Miami would have mopped the floor with them).

[wildbill2u]

Here's a nit pick comment.

I don't think the last Boston championship was due to one dominant superstar player. They had three previous All-star caliber players who played great, but probably were never dominant superstars in their careers prior to that season. KG may have been the closest to that designation, but he never proved it before with his previous team.

I agree with Bruno that a great-to-good PF is the main need here. Give us a PF who plays good defense and can play on the perimeter on offense would be great.

[cheguevara]

2011 - manu broken arm. out 1st round

2012 - 100% healthy. backdoor swept after a 20+ win streak.

you make the call which is more pathetic

[baseline bum]

One thing I expect is for some teams in the West to play much better next season. Don't forget this was a shortened season, with basically no training camp, and I think that hurt certain teams with new coaches (ie: Lakers) or teams that added/swapped new important pieces (ie: Clippers, Dallas). I thought the Spurs benefitted from the fact that most of their guys were already part of the program going into the season, so there was some continuity there.

I don't expect Mike Brown nor Vinny Del Negro to be doing anything positive for their teams next season. Dallas? They should be able to add a decent free agent, so they should be better. The team in the West I expect to be much better next season is Oklahoma City though. Durant has taken a huge step forward this playoffs and Westbrook has at times looked like a real point guard for once. Plus they're going to be pissed about blowing the Finals so badly in such an even matchup.

[ElNono]

And due to dumping Jefferson. I never figured they'd get out of that contract and it was a huge part of why I wanted to completely blow the team up last summer.

Agreed. It looked like we would never get some talent to fill that huge hole in the wing, especially with that albatross contract. Plus Hill looked like he reached his ceiling. Spurs really lucked out with that Kawhi swap.

[baseline bum]

2011 - manu broken arm. out 1st round

2012 - 100% healthy. backdoor swept after a 20+ win streak.

you make the call which is more pathetic

I did - 2011. The team was completely out of gas and even with Manu healthy wouldn't have won a series vs anyone in the West other than New Orleans.

[timvp]

The Spurs have lead the offensive metrics and it hasn't meant much when other teams score just as easily. We've got to get back to defending.In a perfect world where Duncan and Ginobili get to trim a decade of wear and tear off the bodies, I'd agree. With the hand that is dealt, it's just not possible to became an elite defensive team, unfortunately. "Very good" is just about the ceiling.


If you want to focus on offense then you want to trade Splitter. Right? No, not necessarily. When Splitter is rolling right (pun slightly intended), he's a major asset on offense -- especially in a pick-and-roll heavy offense. I realize that his minutes will always be limited with Duncan also on the roster but Splitter is so valuable in those minutes that I want him kept around if at all possible.


Whottt about our mvp candidate Tony Parker??? I thought he was soooo good?It looks like he failed to meet your personal expectations. That sounds like a personal problem, IMO.

If the Spurs had won the championship this year, TP would been the best player on a team that won the championship with a mediocre defense. The only other players who can say that are all-time greats like I listed in the initial post. Parker is pretty damn good but it's unfair to say he was a failure for not reaching that level.

Think of it this way, what current player could have switched places with Parker and led the Spurs to a championship? LeBron? Anyone else? By the OKC series, Parker was asked to be the main scorer, the main playmaker and the lead defender. Not exactly the easiest proposition.


I'm hoping Duncan retires

NASFs :lol

[timvp]

If they continue doing that next year I predict more doom. plain and simple.Wow. Really going out on a limb with that prediction. Only >97% chance you'll be right.

That's almost as sure of a bet as that time you predicted Bonner to choke in the playoffs.


Here's a nit pick comment.

I don't think the last Boston championship was due to one dominant superstar player.Not a nitpick, tbh, since I agreed with that sentiment in the initial post in the thread.


I agree with Bruno that a great-to-good PF is the main need here. Give us a PF who plays good defense and can play on the perimeter on offense would be great.Great-to-good PFs who play well on both sides of the ball are rare ... and none of them are obtainable by the Spurs this summer. The PF that is selected will be a limited player in at least a couple aspects.

[ElNono]

I don't know that the Spurs cannot become a top 5 defensive team with Gino and Tim in the fray. I agree they might be below average individually for spurts, but overall, I think they can be at least serviceable. If the focus is going to be there, the main area of concern is Gary Neal and Matty. I also think Green, Kawhi and Tiago would need to make some major steps forward in that department.

[DesignatedT]

Spurs need to find that fine line between great offense and good defense. There are players out there that are just as good offensively as green/neal etc but better defensively. Problem that arises there is the "corporate knowledge" type of argument. Keep the guys who have been here and are only going to get better defensively since they have a full years worth of playing in the system or keep switching out the role players for better defensive players. If you look at what Kawhi was able to do this year I think you keep swapping them out if you find a player that is better defensively and just as good offensively as Green,Neal, etc.

[cheguevara]

Wow. Really going out on a limb with that prediction. Only >97% chance you'll be right.

That's almost as sure of a bet as that time you predicted Bonner to choke in the playoffs.

and yet you still BELEIVEd in those same Spurs :lol

[ElNono]

tbh, the Knicks ranked #5 in defensive efficiency last season, and it was largely Chandler's doing. Not saying the Spurs will land a Chandler, but you don't necessarily need exceptional defensive talent on all 5 positions.

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

Let's face reality. 2012 was a miserable failure for the Spurs. :lol calling a team with Bonner memorable. if the 2005 Suns were not able to win it wall, there was no way in hell the 2012 Spurs were going to. Yet, spurs office and coach still tried to cram their offense first strategy.

If they continue doing that next year I predict more doom. plain and simple.

If getting to the WCF is doom, then you are out of touch with reality.

[DesignatedT]

tbh, the Knicks ranked #5 in defensive efficiency last season, and it was largely Chandler's doing. Not saying the Spurs will land a Chandler, but you don't necessarily need exceptional defensive talent on all 5 positions.

Very true. Although they're very few Chandler/Bowens out there. I think the Spurs are hoping Kawhi can turn into that type of player and have that type of impact on a defense.

[CaptainLate]

If Tim is really a "Spur for life", then sign a two year deal with year two a minimum contract to enable the Spurs to sign a superstar to get title #5. Unless there is a superstar we can sign this year. Then take the minimum this year and next to get title #5. Spurs Mgmt should strike some kind of ownership deal with Tim to compensate him for taking less $$ in order to keep the team a legit contender.


I honestly think Tim should sign a 1 year deal and retire at the end of it. Spurs will have another good reg season and sadly lose in the playoffs again.

[cheguevara]

If getting to the WCF is doom, then you are out of touch with reality.

if you don't think getting backdoor swept after winning 20+ is doom, you need to wake up

[baseline bum]

If Tim is really a "Spur for life", then sign a two year deal with year two a minimum contract to enable the Spurs to sign a superstar to get title #5. Unless there is a superstar we can sign this year. Then take the minimum this year and next to get title #5. Spurs Mgmt should strike some kind of ownership deal with time to repay him for taking less $$ in order to keep the team a contender.

Tim has been grossly underpaid most of his career due to not coming out his sophomore or junior year when there was a favorable collective bargaining agreement. He can ask $20 million per for all I care next season, and the Spurs should give it to him.

[RodNIc91]

Great post as always timvp! I've got 2 questions. First, how realistic is to expect next year's team to be even greater offensively? Second, do you think Manu can still ride the bench? Those games in the OKC series started to ring the alarm for me. If so, how important you see seeking this offseason for a new sixth man (And I do not mean shipping him away)

[anonoftheinternets]

Jesus, what a huge load of man-on-man fellatio. :lol I'll make this quick so you all can get back on your knees in no time.

I agree




the only useful part of your post. Ironic.

[ace3g]

tbh, the Knicks ranked #5 in defensive efficiency last season, and it was largely Chandler's doing. Not saying the Spurs will land a Chandler, but you don't necessarily need exceptional defensive talent on all 5 positions.

That is why the Spurs need versatile players like Kawhi that can defend multiple positions (also whose game isn't totally centered around shooting).

Dominic McGuire is high on my list for that very reason, can defend the 2,3,4 spots. Fills the stat sheet with rebounds/blocks/steals.

He is quick enough for the Durants of the NBA and the new age PFs

[CaptainLate]

Tim has been grossly underpaid most of his career due to not coming out his sophomore or junior year when there was a favorable collective bargaining agreement. He can ask $20 million per for all I care next season, and the Spurs should give it to him.

Sure, pay him $20mil if you'd like to see another 1 and done like 2011.

Grossly underpaid? That is a ridiculous statement coming from a typical sheeple that believes paying someone millions of dollars to play a game should be the norm. Oh, but don't worry, you have plenty of company as about 95% of human beings are lemmings who are, sadly, pied pipered to their damnation. :depressed

:wakeup Grossly OVERPAID, along with 100% of the rest of "professional" sports athletes, is what an intelligent mind would say.

The problem with "superstars" who claim to be a "(fill in the blank) for life" are that they pander to the fans opinions...yes, the fans who help pay their ludicrous salaries that have helped destroy societal economics. Can anyone name five current superstars that have really meant what they said. Manu and TP came close during their last contract negotiations when they signed for "less millions" that they could have at the time.

I was hoping the owners (i.e., employers) would have jettisoned the 2012 season. :toast But they are as :greedy as the players (i.e., their employees). As well as the owners and players of other "professional" sports team.

Their greed is b/c the "fans" are :idiot. So stupid in fact that it is too much to hope for these lemmings to :wakeup and boycott "professional" sports until salaries are in line with other occupations.

What this year's Spurs team taught me -- with their 20 game winning streak and all the inane opinions and predictions of a championship that went along with it -- is that it is better to trust in God than men.

God answered my prayers, and I thank Him for waking me up. So now it is time for me to :fishing for a long, long, time.

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

if you don't think getting backdoor swept after winning 20+ is doom, you need to wake up

I think doom is more like having Michael Jordan as an owner and being a fan of a team that never ever wins. You sound spoiled. Losing the way the Spurs did sucks, but it's still way better than the 2008-2011.

[baseline bum]

:cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry

I don't like the team cuz dey don't win titles no more :cry

[polandprzem]

:D

The spurs are set plays team, and that's why they can get punished by teams that figure it out.

No matter how all you can slice it - 2012 was the golden opportunity. THE CHANCE.


Blowing it in all those circumstances makes it no hope for 2013. No matter how Gino, Tim, Tony Splitt and Kwhai gonna play.

[SpursFaninMS]

The 2011-12 San Antonio Spurs, while they were ultimately unable to win a championship, go down in history as a memorable bunch. On three separate occasions, they posted double-digit winning streaks – including the franchise record 20-game run that extended into the postseason. Although the Oklahoma City Thunder ended San Antonio's torrid push to win the franchise's fifth title, the Spurs come away from the season having learned a number of lessons.

First of all, no matter how well a team is playing, the favorites to win the championship are always the teams with the best players. It's no coincidence that LeBron James and Kevin Durant, the two most unstoppable forces in the basketball world today, are battling in the 2012 Finals. Teamwork, creativity, chemistry and cohesion are all fantastic traits; unfortunately for today's Spurs, dominant players at the top of their craft still reign supreme.

Of the last 32 champions, 27 of those teams featured one of following first ballot Hall of Famers playing at a dominant level: Tim Duncan, David Robinson, Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O'Neal, Dwyane Wade, Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Moses Malone and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. In other words, after this year's Finals, 84.8 percent of the past 33 championship teams will have featured an all-time great at or near his prime.

The other five championship teams in the last 33 year also share a specific attribute: they were dominant defensive teams. The 1979 Sonics and the 2008 Celtics were the best defensive teams in their respective leagues, while the three championship Pistons squads (1989, 1990 and 2004) were the third, second and first best on defense, chronologically.

Thus, the second lesson is that unless you have a transcendent superstar, history tells us your team needs a top three defense to have a legitimate chance to win a championship. For these Spurs, that probably became painfully obvious when the Thunder seemingly scored on every possession in fourth quarters that didn't feature some sort of mistake by Russell Westbrook.

The 2012 Spurs were a fantastic offensive team with a defense that could generously be described as above average. And while Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili were great at points in time during the regular season and the playoffs, none of the three are at the high level of the aforementioned legends. The Spurs weren't just trying to win a championship, they were attempting to shatter the mold that has held true for more than three decades.

WHERE TO GO FROM HERE

A transcendent superstar in peak form isn't galloping into town to the rescue the Spurs anytime soon. There's no prime version of Tim Duncan, David Robinson or George Gervin coming through that door. For at least this summer, there's no draft pick or salary cap space to even dream of such a miracle.

Without the all-time great, history says to concentrate all efforts on becoming an elite defensive team. Last summer, that's the path I thought the Spurs should take. But after watching the 2012 Spurs, I've actually changed my mind.

Even though there is no precedence in the last 33 seasons, I believe the Spurs need to continue down their current path. I believe the Spurs need to try to win it all with an offense-first approach.

Personnel-wise, the Spurs simply don't have any other choice. Parker might have been a top ten defensive point guard in the NBA but he's far from the type of defender you can build around. Father Time has been harsh to Ginobili's D. During the championship years, he was very good at team-defense and at least average individually. Unfortunately, Ginobili is now average at team-defense and usually subpar individually.

The largest change, however, is Duncan's defense. First of all, his defensive ability has eroded over the years. At 36, he's still capable at defending the low block and challenging shots at the rim. But when it comes to aspects that require mobility -- such as defending pick-and-rolls or switching out on the perimeter -- Duncan is below average.

Additionally, the current rules in the NBA and the influx of lethal perimeter scorers blessed with otherworldly athleticism make it very difficult to build an elite defense around a center who isn't exceptionally quick. Duncan is a lot of things but no one would describe his quickness as exceptional. In today's NBA, great defenses are built by complementing star perimeter defenders with bigmen who can seamlessly switch onto smaller players when needed. The Spurs, with Duncan in the middle, can't do that. Add Ginobili's declining defense to the fact that Parker doesn't have the size or strength to improve much past his current level at that end and we arrive an unfortunate truth: there's no pathway to make this Spurs team a great defensive unit.

If the Spurs won't have the transcendent superstar or the elite defense to attempt to win a championship via a traditional route, the Spurs are left with the chore of paving their own road. That road must consist of the best offense in the NBA combined with a defense that, at the very least, is decidedly above average.

CAN IT BE DONE?

After San Antonio's demise, a lot of absolute terms were used when describing their downfall. Teams that rely on offense can't win championships, they said. You can't hitch your wagon to a small, playmaking point guards and expect to be taken to the promised land, they said. They said the core was too old, the role players were bound to fail and the style of play wouldn't hold up during the rigors of the NBA playoffs.

To that I say they were right. Those reasons are all justifiable by the evidence of history. However, I just don't think those declarations are necessarily absolute. Sooner or later, there will come a time when a team shatters the mold on the way to a championship. For proof, just look at the 2012 Spurs. Add a few Ifs to the equation (If multiple role players didn't shrivel under pressure; If Parker caught on fire from the perimeter; If a replacement ref wasn't needed in Game 6 of the WCF; If Duncan and/or Ginobili were able to turn back the clock for two weeks; If the opposition missed a few outside shots) and can anyone absolutely declare that the Spurs had no chance at all to win the championship this season? I don't believe so. Though it was always an uphill battle, a championship was within the realm of possibilities.

Going into next season, the Spurs will once again begin the campaign as a longshot to win a championship. They will need to mesh perfectly, avoid wear, steer clear of injuries, have the playoff matchups break impeccably in their favor, see a couple other contenders fall off the rail and hope to peak at the right time. Or, to put it more simply, have what happened this year happen again next year, with the added difficultly of Duncan and Ginobili potentially falling off a cliff at any second due to their age.

As it stands, even saying the Spurs have a 5 percent chance of winning the 2013 championship is optimistic. Their true odds are probably somewhere between 1 and 3 percent.

REBUILDING IS NOT AN OPTION

Despite the dim outlook, rebuilding right now makes no sense (well, unless Duncan shocks the sporting world and decides to retire). In the NBA, there are only a handful of teams each season that have a chance to win the championship. Right now, the Spurs are in that conversation -- and that isn't something to be thrown away. One day San Antonio will have to take the first step toward a long and painful rebuild. Thankfully, that time has not arrived.

Sentimental and business reasons aside (which there are many), basketball remains the biggest reason why the Spurs need to keep trucking. Many teams, particularly small market teams, would love to switch places with the Spurs right now. A legitimate, though slim, shot a championship with a clean salary cap outlook for the eventual rebuilding project? That's nothing to be upset about.

HOW TO REFUEL

As previously stated, the Spurs need to try to win with offense. With that in mind, I believe that all moves made during this offseason should be decided by offensive fit. For the Spurs to be the best offensive team in the league, they can't afford to have any weak links. It's true that hypothetically an athletic, shotblocking bigman would be a fit defensively, as would a perimeter stopper. However, unless the hypothetical player is also able to play on the offensive end at a high level, it'd be the wrong move.

Defensively, I think the Spurs should rely on growth and tweaks. Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green (if re-signed) and Tiago Splitter should be much better defensively in their second full year in the rotation. Finding a backup point guard better than Gary Neal would be difficult not to accomplish. Plus, even veterans like Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw (again, if re-signed) will be better on that end following a training camp.

I don't believe that wholesale changes are needed at this point. Instead, the Spurs should build off of this season's success and hope beyond hope that they can become the exception to who usually rules the NBA.


Agree with 90 percent of it. The part about offense-oriented vs. defense-oriented is dead on. We just can't be a defensive team. Our bigs don't have the speed off the rolls. We don't have the speed and athleticism to get help-side blocks. That is the reason that why our defensive focus is the paint and we give up a lot of open jumpers.

That leaves Kawhi or Jax typically on an island with an elite 2 or 3. Kawhi can be that lockdown defender in the future, but is still learning. TP is a good defender, but not great. Manu has lost a couple steps. Gary Neal..ha. But can we change defensive strategy? I don't think. Our bigs aren't capable of holding down the paint from their man and dribble penetration and rebounding.

In terms of offense vs. defense emphasis, what you see is going to stay the same. it has to.

My question is on offense. I'm in the minority here for believing offense cost us the series against the Thunder. I don't care what the stats say, our offense is too relient on Tony Parker to get past elite teams. To me, the difference was that no one else was a concern off the bounce (other than Manu's fourth in Game 1 and Game 4). It could be a slashing 2/3 or a big posting up, but someone else has to be able to create a shot or set up a teammate.

This offense will hum in the regular season, no doubt. I'd guarantee the same numbers, maybe better next year, with this system and roster. But the Thunder realized if you cut the head off the snake, the rest dies with it. Shut down the facilitator and the system will break down, forcing a bunch of role players and past their prime guys to go one-on-one. To make matters worse, they could fly out to the three point line, too. Obviously, only a handful of teams will have the one-on-one defender and team speed to stop Tony without leaving shooters wide open. You can bet we'll run into one of those teams when it counts, though.

Kawhi is the one I'm wanting to see next year. He worked on his three-point shooting before this season. Do we start to see him mature in other areas and take on an extended role on offense? That would mean working on his handle. Who else will get to the rim on their own?

Disagreements: Splitter...his stock is at its peak. Obviously, I wouldn't trade him for nothing, but I would certainly be shopping him.

[TD 21]

As previously stated, the Spurs need to try to win with offense. With that in mind, I believe that all moves made during this offseason should be decided by offensive fit. For the Spurs to be the best offensive team in the league, they can't afford to have any weak links. It's true that hypothetically an athletic, shotblocking bigman would be a fit defensively, as would a perimeter stopper. However, unless the hypothetical player is also able to play on the offensive end at a high level, it'd be the wrong move.

Agreed. And it starts with finding a true backup PG; one who's an adept play maker. I liked what Ford brought to the table before he succumbed to injury. Underwhelming as he's been to this point, I think pursuing Flynn is worthwhile. My thoughts as to why: http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=199589

The days of just having Parker and Ginobili as play makers are over (or at least, they should be). Especially coming off of playing into June and playing in the Olympics. This team desperately needs another guard who can create.


As previously stated, the Spurs need to try to win with offense. With that in mind, I believe that all moves made during this offseason should be decided by offensive fit. For the Spurs to be the best offensive team in the league, they can't afford to have any weak links. It's true that hypothetically an athletic, shotblocking bigman would be a fit defensively, as would a perimeter stopper. However, unless the hypothetical player is also able to play on the offensive end at a high level, it'd be the wrong move.

Defensively, I think the Spurs should rely on growth and tweaks. Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green (if re-signed) and Tiago Splitter should be much better defensively in their second full year in the rotation. Finding a backup point guard better than Gary Neal would be difficult not to accomplish. Plus, even veterans like Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw (again, if re-signed) will be better on that end following a training camp.If they want to take a significant step forward defensively, then they need an athletic, shot blocking big man. There's no other way around it. I agree that said play can't be an offensively liability though. That's why they need to make a major offer for Smith, long shot or not. My thoughts as to why: http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=190683&page=4

They can and probably will make incremental improvement, I just don't buy that they'll be marked improvement. You can blame lack of practice time all you want. I know it takes more than a few practices here and there to get used to the Spurs rotations, but they had a few days before the playoffs and long layoffs between rounds and for as improved defensively as they appeared the first two rounds, if you look at the end results, they were about the same defensive team they were the entire season and last season. And it's not because of lack or practice time, it's because they flat out don't have the personnel to be much better than that.

There's got to be more athleticism, mobility, speed and quickness. As much as we all liked the Diaw and Jackson pickups, they were a step backward on those fronts (not saying I wouldn't have done them though). They've got four rotation players in their athletic primes, but only one has above average athleticism (Leonard). Two have average athleticism (Green and Splitter) and one has well below average athleticism (Neal). That's not good enough.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Jesus, what a huge load of man-on-man fellatio. :lol I'll make this quick so you all can get back on your knees in no time.




Well stated. I'd never stoop to such mindless, psuedo-gay, ass-kissing behavior myself.

With that in mind, I'd just like to say that this article by Timvp got me all hot and bothered. I was up all night pondering the various points made in this incredible essay. When I get ahold of an LJ piece, I can't put it down until I've fully extracted all of its contents. Let's just say his stuff satisfies my needs like no one else's in this place can.







To the article, I'd love to see us pursue the best offensive players around, but I'd like to put a caveat on that recruiting process. I'd like to go after those players that have proven they can hit a shot in the post season. As Matt Bonner and Richard Jefferson have proven, there are some regular season heroes out there that cannot deliver when the heat is on. And as Stephen Jackson has proven, there are those other guys that live for the post season. Players that might be considered slightly damaged goods, but have that killer instinct, seem to be able to come in here and do fine with the constants like Duncan and Pop around.

We obviously need to keep Jack in a Spurs uniform for the foreseeable future. Bonner is really the only guy who I'd say needs to go. If Danny Green could be upgraded for another player I'd be all for that move as well.

All that being said, I also think it would be great to get a young interior stopper, even if his offense is weak at this point. Adding another wing player with defensive tools and potential at the offensive end would be nice too.

While I love to watch this Spurs team play their offense, I do feel that we'll need the ability to at least challenge opponents at the rim, and defend a little bit on the perimeter if we hope to win another ring.

Stephen Jackson provided toughness on defense as much as he provided fearlessness on the offensive end of the court. I'd argue that his defense, attitude and tenacity, while far from perfect, was really the huge upgrade from Jefferson that allowed the Spurs to out-perform last post season.

The second difference maker was young Leonard. Kawhi Leonard proved that if you sign the right young player with the right basic skillset, his offensive skills can be molded. I expect his offensive game to take a big leap forward in year 2. After seeing him play a lot of college ball, I was shocked at his improvement on the offensive end from college to the pros. Watching his development in the Spurs system makes me think that we could do this again with someone else. He's very unique, to be sure, but if you watched this kid hitting his 29% from 19 feet in college it was hard to imagine him with the kind of game he's put together in such short order at the top professional level.

Defensive players can be had cheaper than offensive players. If Leonard was an offensive phenom in college he would have been a top-5 pick. As it was, those doubts about his offensive game let the Spurs grab him mid-round.

If Kawhi develops into a reliable offensive force, with his defensive talent you could have 3 pro-offense players on the floor with him, and one Bowen-style hound slowing down the other team's 1st or 2nd offensive threat with Kawhi on the other one. Ideally that would be a guy patrolling the paint, ala George Johnson style (Spurs history lesson for those who don't know about George), or bring in Kawhi-Light to co-team with Leonard on the perimeter depending on the matchups.

So, I guess my take is that offense probably should be the primary focus on this team based on personnel and direction, but we'll need that defense, too, in order to win a championship.

[rmt]

Don't agree with trading Splitter. Sure, he doesn't play much because he's backing up TD but what happens when TD retires in 1-2 years? 7ft centers with decent hands, bball-iq and great pick-n-roll ability don't grow on trees. Get rid of Bonner and Blair, hope Lorbek comes over and play the young fellas a lot next season.

I enjoyed this last season. I think they had a good chance - better than any year since 07. SJax and Diaw fit seamlessly but Spurs peaked a bit too soon. OKC is just a superior team - younger, faster, more athletic and with shooting stars like Durant and Westbrooke. Once they watched tape of Spurs in games 1 and 2 and started sharing/passing the ball, it was over.

Gotta continue on this offensive path and hope for growth of Leonard, Splitter, Green and hopefully Lorbek. It was still a great year - getting close with a small chance of winning. With injuries or a few bounces here or there, winning is not totally impossible.

[tesseractive]

if you don't think getting backdoor swept after winning 20+ is doom, you need to wake up

Yeah, I'm sure there are tons of fans in Charlotte and New Jersey saying to themselves. "Thank God. At least we didn't get backdoor swept out of the conference finals."

I'm sure Mav Fan is thinking "Sure, we may have let our second-best player walk and pissed away any chance at defending our title, but at least we didn't make it to the conference finals and win a couple of games before dropping 4 straight to the Thunder."

Brilliant analysis.

[rascal]

I hope the team blows it up but they won't. It is obvious that this team will not win with the current team. How many years do they have to get beat down by younger more athletic teams. Every year it is the same story, everyone wants them to come back with the same team. Maybe next year, maybe next year, if only Manu was not injured, if only the refs would not make bad calls, if only the Lakers did not make that trade for Gasol, if only this role player or that role player would of had a good series. There are always other teams with stars in their prime that are younger and better now.


The Spurs come back with the same core team with just a couple changes that end up not making any type of difference.



Their core main players are reaching the time where they fall off a cliff as players. manu did not look good in the playoffs and Duncan can no longer carry the frontline by himself. I am not impressed with Splitter and don't expect any big jump improvements from him as a player. Splitter is best as a backup. Jackson everyone is excited about but I don't see him as anything special, just a role player getting up in years.




The spurs had the number 1 seed, were healthy and had easy playoff matchups but still could not get to the finals with the current core team. I don't see how things will be any better with their top players another year older.

And don't expect the league to stand still and not make changes with teams improving and passing the spurs who will be standing still with minor role player changes.

[benefactor]

I hope the team blows it up but they won't.
Shocking take.

[therealtruth]

I don't know that the Spurs cannot become a top 5 defensive team with Gino and Tim in the fray. I agree they might be below average individually for spurts, but overall, I think they can be at least serviceable. If the focus is going to be there, the main area of concern is Gary Neal and Matty. I also think Green, Kawhi and Tiago would need to make some major steps forward in that department.

I am fine if Gino and Tim are the weakest defenders since they can probably at least be above average at team defense. The problem is when everyone else is a turnstile on defense.

[timvp]

tbh, the Knicks ranked #5 in defensive efficiency last season, and it was largely Chandler's doing. Not saying the Spurs will land a Chandler, but you don't necessarily need exceptional defensive talent on all 5 positions.

If you have a mobile center who can switch on picks and defend the rim, you can be pretty damn good without much discipline because that center can basically defend the whole court. But those players are in short supply ... and most aren't even traditional center. The list includes Chandler, KG, Noah, Horford and not many more.

Duncan may very well be a top five low block defender and a top five rim protector ... but teams can and will exploit the fact that he can't switch onto smaller players anymore. The Spurs could try to work around that but at the end of the day it's a fatal flaw in terms of being an elite defense in today's NBA.

Tbh, it's ironic that Duncan is the team's best defender but also the main reason why they can't be elite anymore.

[lurker23]

Like timvp, I think the Spurs still have a shot at a championship with this core, albeit a small one. I'd much rather watch them chase that outside chance (and be a good-to-great team in the process for the next 1-3 years) than blow it up.

To me, the risks/costs of blowing it up at this point are much too high. Realistically, there are very few paths you can take back up to the mountaintop once you lose your franchise or near-franchise players. Basically, you have to either become really bad, or get really lucky in the lottery, to get another franchise player to build around. Either way, it requires patience while those young guys develop.

Eventually, the Spurs will have to go that route, and I'll still be cheering for them when they do. But you don't use the nuclear option until you truly need to.

[Spurious]

I live in the Atlanta area and know the Hawks' ownership has some boneheaded personnel moves in their future. They generally do. So we can keep hoping they'll give away Horford or Smith, and maybe it will come true. Unlikely, but it's about the best we have to hope for at this point.

[ElNono]

If you have a mobile center who can switch on picks and defend the rim, you can be pretty damn good without much discipline because that center can basically defend the whole court. But those players are in short supply ... and most aren't even traditional center. The list includes Chandler, KG, Noah, Horford and not many more.

Duncan may very well be a top five low block defender and a top five rim protector ... but teams can and will exploit the fact that he can't switch onto smaller players anymore. The Spurs could try to work around that but at the end of the day it's a fatal flaw in terms of being an elite defense in today's NBA.

Tbh, it's ironic that Duncan is the team's best defender but also the main reason why they can't be elite anymore.

IMO, that's why Bruno is spot on in that whoever plays next to TD is key from a defensive aspect, and why I said Tiago would need to make major strides on the defensive end.

But the Spurs also got exposed defending the perimeter pretty badly by OKC. Frankly, since we flipped Bowen with RJ, and adding Manu's decline to Neal's general ineptness, we just really have had a tough time handling even jumpshooters.

I think swapping Jack for RJ was an immediate improvement in that area, even though Jack is probably on the tail end of his career. Also Kawhi's ceiling on the defensive end is simply unknown at this time. The kid just blew away any rook expectations, and it's going to be exciting to see how he progresses. He obviously wasn't ready enough for a challenge like Durant, but he's just getting his feet wet. I also thought Danny showed some flashes of being capable to be a workhorse on the defensive end. He has size, is fairly athletic and knows how to block shots. He just haven't figured out the balance between aggressive and reckless yet. Hopefully an extra year can bring some insight there.

Manu will retire a Spur, and the reality is that the worst Manu is still quite better than the best Gary Neal on the defensive end. I love Gary, and I really like what he brings on the offensive end when he's on, but it has come to a point where Pop couldn't even play him for stretches due to his defense.

All in all, there's stuff to look forward to. If Danny, Kawhi, Tiago hit that next level defensively, I think the only missing link is a legit backup PG, and there's no reason for the Spurs not to realistically be top-10 (wishful thinking top-5) defensively. There's a lot of "ifs" there, but at least it's young kids we're talking about. Realistically it's easier to teach them new tricks.

Obviously, this would also necessitate Pop being more adamant about playing defense (which is code-word for giving less minutes to defensive liabilities like Bonner, Blair and, depending on the situation, Neal).

[MultiTroll]

Hey timvp great writeup.

Want to ask you, what do you think of this posters grades of Pop and how significant was Pops coaching in the Spurs going from up 2-0 to the Thunder winning 4 straight?


Game 3...

Pop C-
The players didn't seem ready for the amount of fire the Thunder would bring to the game. Pop, too, seemed unprepared. His playcalling oscillated between non-existent and confusingly bland. The Thunder threw the book at the Spurs and I didn't see many in-game adjustments by Pop. Rotations-wise, I was disappointed. Matt Bonner was overwhelmed yet Pop inexplicably continues to show belief in him. I thought Diaw and Leonard should have played more. When things started going south, going to Blair to try to change the tenor of the game would have been worth a shot, especially since the Spurs were lacking interior scoring and energy -- Blair's two strengths. Heading into Game 4, Pop has a lot of decisions to make when it comes to countering the Thunder's adjustments. Perhaps even more importantly, Pop needs to ensure that his troops bring the appropriate amount of enthusiasm and desperation.


The Spurs entered Game 4 with the goal of taking a commanding 3-1 lead....

Pop C-
First of all, playing Bonner was a mistake. Bonner is totally overwhelmed by the moment. With as well as Blair played, in hindsight Pop probably should have used him beginning in Game 3. I would also like to see better plays called when the bench unit is in the game. There has to be something in Pop's bag of tricks that is able to take advantage of a defense that is switching everything. Leonard also deserved more minutes and, perhaps most blatantly of all, Ginobili needs to play more than 25 minutes. That's an absurdly low number of minutes with so much on the line. Defensively, the Spurs have been horrible this series and Pop deserves a portion of that blame. On paper, Pop's defensive scheming was supposed to help the Spurs overcome the Thunder's brigade of talent. Thus far, that hasn't been the case. I don't think it's hyperbolic to suggest that Game 5 is the most important game of Pop's career, especially because he doesn't have a superstar version of Duncan to fall back on. Pop needs to make a number of difficult decisions regarding the rotation, continue to adjust the offensive sets to account for how OKC is defending, and figure out a defensive gameplan that gives the Spurs a fighting chance. Pop, the time is now to show why you are a future Hall of Famer.





Game 5
Pop F
As both teams were preparing for Game 5, I went on record to say this contest would go down as the most important game of Pop's coaching career. He had many items to consider, many possible avenues to explore and no superstar-level Tim Duncan to rely on. Now that the game is over, I still feel like it was the most important game of Pop's career. Unfortunately, Pop was an unmitigated disaster. His first quarter rotations made absolutely no sense. I realize he was dealing with foul trouble but to play Blair at the center of a small ball lineup when the defense was already porous to begin with was astoundingly stupid. Pop shuffling players in and out added to the confusion. By the second quarter, it was obvious that Pop had committed the coaching cardinal sin: he took the game out of the hands of his players. As the game progressed, Pop was better ... but that's not saying much. The rotation was still a question mark and the playcalling was lacking. I've always been a big supporter of Pop but this was an embarrassingly bad coaching effort. Now he faces the even more difficult task of leading the Spurs to a Game 6 win over the Thunder. From what we saw on Monday night, there's little reason to believe that Pop is up to the challenge.

Thanks.

[temujin]

Spurs have zero chance to win another championship.
Zero.
It's a superstar-driven business and young superstars win championships, because they are good and because they are marketable (non in that order) and Spurs have none.
If they bring in Loberk, resign Diaw, get rid of Bonner, and find a good backup PG (McCalebb), they will be very very very good again and a treat to watch.
Tha's all I care about, actually.
Spurs have had their -large- share of winning.

Winning an NBA title requires other "assets" which are only marginally basketball-related.
The 2012 PO has clarified for those who are not totally blind that they don't have these "assets" anymore.

[Ghjkll]

A lot of people here said that Manu looked bad in the playoffs...I don´t think he was that horrible...In the first two rounds he barely played, took only a few shots and was not used...In the conference finals, he averaged 18.5, 4 and 3.5 in 50, 42 and 93...in 30 minutes per contest! Including 34 in the most important game. He may not be an all-star anymore due to consistency and health issues, but he can still be a productive player. I think he is fine as a 3rd option/game changer. Our team needs to adress other problems, imo.

[Fabbs]

A lot of people here said that Manu looked bad in the playoffs...I don´t think he was that horrible...In the first two rounds he barely played, took only a few shots and was not used...In the conference finals, he averaged 18.5, 4 and 3.5 in 50, 42 and 93...in 30 minutes per contest! Including 34 in the most important game. He may not be an all-star anymore due to consistency and health issues, but he can still be a productive player. I think he is fine as a 3rd option/game changer. Our team needs to adress other problems, imo.
Manu played awesome when it counted and should have been rewarded with some more Classic Clutch Manu moments.
The most glaring was his drive and shot-putt style bucket after getting fouled by DurantFag for the 2+1. Great momentum play and brought the Spurs to 87-88 after the offense had been vegging. Tweet! Obviously shuffling and leaning Kobe Durant is given the call as the basket is waived and Manu gets rung up for the bogus charge call.

[Slippy]

A lot of people here said that Manu looked bad in the playoffs...I don´t think he was that horrible...In the first two rounds he barely played, took only a few shots and was not used...In the conference finals, he averaged 18.5, 4 and 3.5 in 50, 42 and 93...in 30 minutes per contest! Including 34 in the most important game. He may not be an all-star anymore due to consistency and health issues, but he can still be a productive player. I think he is fine as a 3rd option/game changer. Our team needs to adress other problems, imo.

If you look hard enough for some stats - not the games that mattered (Wc finals) you will find some sort of letdown in Manu.. Even though our eyes and the boxscores showed bigger disappointments.

[Ghjkll]

I agree that he played below his level in the first round, but his number was not called at all... The team was winning without him. I'm not saying that he is the same player as five years ago, but considering his style of play and the fact that he is almost 35, i think he aged just fine. He is still an impactful player. He can give us 14-3-4 off the bench in reduced minutes. Heck, I think that if the Spurs are still winning, with that kind of production Manu would win another sixth mand of the year award. I`m just pointing out that the team has greater concerns than Ginobili's performance. That is, of course, asuming that next year he won't decline more than he had right now.

[Bartleby]

Spurs have come a long way. No matter what happens in game 7, I'm proud of my team.

[Bartleby]

Spurs have come a long way. No matter what happens in game 7, I'm proud of my team.

[Bartleby]

Spurs have come a long way. No matter what happens in game 7, I'm proud of my team.