Why The Spurs Can't Afford To Lose Danny Green

[timvp]

Entering the Western Conference Finals, Danny Green appeared to be a player on the rise. However, as Green hit iron on three-pointer after three-pointer against the Oklahoma City Thunder, it was easy to grow frustrated. Pop certainly did, sending the 25-year-old from the starting lineup to the end of the bench. While it'd be unfair to suggest Green was the main reason why the Spurs lost against the Thunder, his errant accuracy was definitely one of the culprits.

Despite the WCF disappointment, last week the Spurs decided to extend a qualifying offer to Green. That offer, worth a guaranteed $2,695,391, makes Green a restricted free agent. The Spurs are now able to match any contract Green accepts that starts at less than approximately $5,300,000 in the first season. The maximum contract the Spurs can give him is about $23,500,000 over four years. Conversely, if the Spurs don’t negotiate further with Green and he fails to receive an outside offer, Green can simply play next season for $2,695,391 and then become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2013.

How much is Green worth to the Spurs? It’d be a mistake to simply judge him on his ill-timed collapse. Let’s rewind time a bit and look at the bigger picture.

In the 47 games that preceded the Western Conference Finals (39 regular season games, eight playoff games), Green shot 47.8% from three-point territory -- knocking down a sizzling 88-of-184 attempts. While it’s possible that Green ultimately faltered due to the pressure of deep postseason play, it’s also quite possible that he suffered from regression to the mean. Green is a good shooter but he’s not a 47.8% three-point shooter; he was long overdue for a slump. And even after his 4-for-23 shooting on threes against the Thunder, Green still ended up shooting 44.4% on three-pointers in his final 53 contests of the season -- a very, very healthy number.

The statistics tell us, at some point in time, Green was going to experience a dry spell. If we chalk up his Western Conference Finals struggles to inevitable regression, the positives on the rest of Green’s resume are difficult to ignore.

Let’s stay on the offense side of the court. For the season, Green averaged 14.3 points per 36 minutes. That number alone suggests Green is much more than simply a spot-up shooter. Bruce Bowen, for example, never averaged more than 8.2 points per 36 minutes as a member of the Spurs. If you look at just the games following the Richard Jefferson trade, Green scoring soared to 17.4 points per 36 minutes. While that might not sound elite, the NBA is currently extraordinarily weak league-wide at the shooting guard position. Here are the only shooting guards in the NBA scored at least 17.4 points per 36 minutes this season (with a minimum of 500 minutes):

Kobe Bryant - 26.1
Dwyane Wade - 24.0
Louis Williams - 20.5
Monta Ellis - 20.1
Manu Ginobili - 20.0
Michael Redd - 19.5
Kevin Martin - 19.4
Jordan Crawford - 19.3
James Harden - 19.3
Marcus Thornton - 19.3
Joe Johnson - 19.1
Jamal Crawford - 18.7
Klay Thompson - 18.5
Leandro Barbosa - 18.4
Gerald Green - 18.4
Nick Young - 18.3

That’s a total of only 16 shooting guards in the NBA who scored at a better rate than Green scored after Jefferson was traded away. While Green isn’t regarded by pundits or fans as anything more than a complementary piece on the offensive end of the court, he flashed a scoring ability last season that was among the best at his position.

Though Green shows some offensive promise, defense is where he truly shines. He is the rare shooting guard who is capable of racking up blocked shot and steals. Just how rare is that? Last year, Green averaged 1.1 blocks and 1.4 steals per 36 minutes. The only other shooting guards in the last 20 seasons who have had a season that can match those numbers are Dwyane Wade (4 times), Eddie Jones (1 time) and Tony Allen (1 time). Green’s long, active arms and deceptive athleticism give him the ability to wreak havoc like few at his position in this generation.

Green is also an elite rebounder for a shooting guard. He averaged 5.4 rebounds per 36 minutes with a rebounding rate of 8.6. The only shooting guards who had a better rebounding rate this season were Evan Turner (12.2), Paul George (10.6), Mike Miller (10.2), Tony Allen (8.9) and Dwyane Wade (8.7). If focusing on just defensive rebounding, Green leapfrogs over Allen and Wade.

Speaking of defensive rebounding, his actual impact on the game was even better than those elite numbers suggest. When Green was on the court, the Spurs grabbed available defensive rebounds 78.1% of the time. That wasn’t just the best mark on the team (Tim Duncan was second at 76.9%), it was the best mark in the entire NBA. That fact suggests not only does Green corral contested rebounds, he is also conscientious about keeping his man away from the offensive glass.

Early last season, Green had some issues on the defensive end, specifically in regards to giving his man too much space to shoot and failing to maneuver around screens in a timely manner. But as the season progressed, Green continued to improve. Following the Jefferson trade, Green really shined. In the final 25 games of the regular season without Jefferson, opponents scored only 97.6 points per 100 possessions against the Spurs when Green was in the game -- the best mark on the team.

In the playoffs, Green remained stout on the defensive end. Teams scored only 95.0 points per 100 possessions with Green on the court -- again the team’s best mark. As you can see in the Player Pairs from the playoffs ( http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=200042), not only did Green make the starters better on defense, he also helped the bench players defend much better. Even if you look at just the games against the Thunder, Green was again the team’s best defender in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions.

Strategically, Green’s value on defense is immense. His ability to defend point guards, even elite point guards, is extremely useful. Since Tony Parker can defend many shooting guards, the versatility of that backcourt allows for the coaching staff to mix and match on the fly. Green is also quick enough to pressure the basketball and strong enough to survive on the low block.

Considering that Green was on the scrapheap not too long ago, it’s not surprising that he has some flaws to his game. Offensively, he’s just not a very smooth player. I wouldn’t classify him as robotic but he certainly isn’t a graceful athlete by NBA standards. When he drives with the basketball, if he’s forced to do anything but a layup or a dunk, it’s usually an adventure – and an unsightly one at that. While he’s a willing passer who is usually accurate with his dishes, he has below average court vision for a guard. Ballhandling isn’t a strength. While he can play point guard in a pinch, he’s turnover-prone when he’s dribbling in a crowd and his decision-making off the dribble leaves much to be desired.

On defense, screens still perplex Green at times. He’s gotten better about understanding the amount of appropriate space to give his opponent but he still makes mistakes every now and then. He also has a bad habit of synching his defensive energy to how well he’s playing overall. As he grows as a player, he has to learn to play at the same energy level no matter what’s happening with him or anyone else.

As an overall athlete, he’s good but not great, which limits his ceiling on both ends of the court. And while there’s no way he’s a only a one or two dimensional player, he’s always going to be a niche player whose job is to bring aggression and to fill a specific role next to star players. Even though he’s just 25, he’s not someone who is going to turn into a star or become able to single-handedly carry a team.

We’ve looked at Green’s strengths and weaknesses but the question still remains: How much is Green worth to the Spurs? To set the market, let’s look at similar free agents from last season. Here is Green’s 2012 season compared to the 2011 seasons of seven shooting guards who signed free agent deals last summer. I included their age at the time they signed their contract, the average annual value (AAV) of their contract and the contract’s length (CL).

http://oi47.tinypic.com/iqd9qa.jpg

Looking at the comparables, Green stacks up rather well. He’s easily the best rebounder of the bunch and his three-point shooting percentage is also tops. His scoring is on the lower side but it’s quite a bit higher than Arron Afflalo’s rate and Afflalo is the only player listed who is regarded as a quality defender. If Green isn’t the best defender on the list, he’s second.

Numbers-wise, you can see evidence of Green’s weaknesses. His lack of ballhandling and playmaking result in too many turnovers and too few assists. The only other thing that can hold down Green’s value is his relatively small sample size. Green had a great season, compared to expecatations, but he came out of nowhere. Nothing in his history suggested he could shoot the way he shot or have the overall impact he had on a championship contending team. Combined, Green neither having star potential nor tons of data promising a steady level of play going forward may scare off potential suitors.

As a Spurs fan, I’d obviously prefer for Green to re-sign for a deal that calls for him to make around $3 million annually. However, after digging further into his numbers and viewing the comparables, if a team comes in offering $4 million annually, I’m confident in saying that’s a salary the Spurs should match. There’s just no way the Spurs could turn that down when a very comparable player like Afflalo makes more than double that amount.

At what amount should the Spurs let Green go? That’s difficult to answer. It’d be easy if he was a one-dimensional gunner who would lose all value if his shot disappeared (say like Matt Bonner or even Gary Neal) but the numbers tell us Green is much more than that. On a per possession basis, he was the team’s best defender after Jefferson left -- whether you’re looking at the regular season, the playoffs or just the Thunder series. He was the most impactful player in the entire NBA in terms of defensive rebounding. He has the uncommon ability to get steals and block shots at the shooting guard position. His defensive versatility is advantageous. Offensively, he’s a three-point shooter with a quick release who seems to have more room to mature on that end. In a global sense, he’s a team-first type of guy who works hard, blends in and doesn’t command a lot of touches.

Sure, there’s risk that his 43.6% three-point shooting this season was a fluke. But he does so many things well that I believe he’s a low-risk investment. Even if his three-point shooting regresses all the way to around 36%, he’s still a shooting guard who can rebound, block shots, get steals and defend. While the NBA as a whole usually monetarily rewards shooting guards who score the ball -- even if it’s inefficiently -- I would argue that Green does a lot more that helps a team win than someone like a Monta Ellis (sorry cousin) who will shoot a lot and do little else. Rewarding Green for doing a lot of little things well requires some outside-the-box thinking but I believe that it would be justified.

Honestly, when I began this exercise, I was hesitant for the Spurs to give Green much more than $3 million per season. Now, I’ve already talked myself into $4 million. Depending on how the market shakes out for other shooting guards this summer, I might go even higher. At the end of the day, Green brings too much to the table to lose for nothing -- especially since the Spurs have very little long-term money on the books. The numbers say San Antonio would become a much worse team without Green and I agree that it’d be a giant leap backwards. We all might have a bad lasting memory of his 2012 season but if the Spurs have any hope of becoming a legit contender in 2013, Green’s special talents are needed.

[Spurs da champs]

You rely way too much on this "what if" per stat for the basis of your arguments.

[therealtruth]

Green didn't get enough easy baskets against the Thunder. It would have really helped his confidence and shooting. I seem to remember him being able to get some easy baskets in the earlier rounds. That's where the Spurs really miss a guy like TJ Ford that can help a guy who's struggling to get some easy baskets.

[jesterbobman]

We need to keep Green to have any realistic shot at winning. We need a minutes sponge at SG to use the minutes Manu can't play, and Green is a very good one. Additionally, we don't have many options. MLE and LLE are/should be used to get Diaw/Lorbek(and maybe de Colo?) which doesn't leave a ton of chances to upgrade, unless some team really wants Bonner/Neal/Blair and offers a really good SG for them(This is not happening)

I think his contribution to winning is more than his salary will be, And I'm hoping his limited minutes limits his price.

[Redshadows]

Match whatever the offer he got and trade him before 2013 draft if needed.

[Redshadows]

Now I want to know what kind of offer Duncan would get and then try to guess others.

[Russo21]

Damn you must have a lot of time on your hands timvp.

[Russo21]

http://www.projectspurs.com/2012-articles/july/should-the-jazz-and-spurs-starting-talking-trade.html

[TDMVPDPOY]

i think ferry is going to throw an offer at him to get him to the hawks...ST for horford... :D

[racm]

And to think he was a mid second rounder?

He's not elite, but he's GOOD.

[G-Dawgg]

.....blah blah blah.......you wanna get rid of Bonner, yet Green is the second coming the Red Houdini. He plain and simply pulled a Roger Mason when we needed him. He failed.
I feel like he's cut from the same choker mold as Bonner.

Sorry I'm still pretty bitter and couldn't care less if he walked.
You can talk about his stats and how good he plays, but if he shits the bed when we need him and we can't rely on him to put up those numbers when when it matters, then what good is he to us in the end?

Fuck than Danny Green bitch....

[MI21]

Nice work, timvp.

I became a very, very big fan of Danny as the season progressed but there is absolutely no doubting that he sucked hard during the WCF. That said, I'm willing to give him one more chance.

Remember, in 2004, Hedo Turkoglu completely choked against the Lakers. Every Spur fan couldn't wait to get him off the team.

But what happened? Hedo turned into one of the best clutch shot makers in the NBA. In 2009 he was basically the 4th quarter machine that guided the Magic to the finals.

Players can change and players can learn to deal with playoff pressure with time. I'm not talking Matt Bonner time here, but Danny deserves another go. If he fails again, by all means, let him walk.

[Solid D]

Damn you must have a lot of time on your hands timvp.

LJ leaves a piece of journalism made of pure gold on your doorstep for you to read and that is all you have to say?

[racm]

Nice work, timvp.

I became a very, very big fan of Danny as the season progressed but there is absolutely no doubting that he sucked hard during the WCF. That said, I'm willing to give him one more chance.

Remember, in 2004, Hedo Turkoglu completely choked against the Lakers. Every Spur fan couldn't wait to get him off the team.

But what happened? Hedo turned into one of the best clutch shot makers in the NBA. In 2009 he was basically the 4th quarter machine that guided the Magic to the finals.

Players can change and players can learn to deal with playoff pressure with time. I'm not talking Matt Bonner time here, but Danny deserves another go. If he fails again, by all means, let him walk.

He was one of the guys on the UNC championship team. I'd say he's got clutch moments, but as a streaky shooter you never know.

He also led a near-comeback against Dallas that was the start of a tear the Spurs went on. After that Dallas game the Spurs were 12-9 - but finished 38-7.

[Twisted_Dawg]

While I was infuriated with Green's complete choke job against the Thunder, which was one of the factors that lead to our defeat, this reminds me of Hedo Turkolu who choked in a playoff series for us and we got rid of him. He later developed into a solid player.

Understanding Green is a young player, do we want duplicate the Hedo experience? Particularly when are options are very limited? I think not, I just hope we don't overpay this guy, because the jury is still out on him.

Edit: Sorry MI21, I didn't read your post until I posted, but great minds do think alike.

[Wild Cobra Kai]

While I was infuriated with Green's complete choke job against the Thunder, which was one of the factors that lead to our defeat, this reminds me of Hedo Turkolu who choked in a playoff series for us and we got rid of him. He later developed into a solid player.

...who then went on to choke against the very same Lakers in the Finals a few years later with Orlando.

The reason you REALLY don't want to overpay him is that he was absolute shit when the Big Three sat out last year, and realistically, that will be the state of the team NLT 2 years from now, when the expensive part of his contract would kick in. He's a "system guy". Hopefully, other teams have that figured out.

[Mel_13]

While I was infuriated with Green's complete choke job against the Thunder, which was one of the factors that lead to our defeat, this reminds me of Hedo Turkolu who choked in a playoff series for us and we got rid of him. He later developed into a solid player.

Understanding Green is a young player, do we want duplicate the Hedo experience? Particularly when are options are very limited? I think not, I just hope we don't overpay this guy, because the jury is still out on him.

Edit: Sorry MI21, I didn't read your post until I posted, but great minds do think alike.


Hedo left to take a 6yr/38M deal from Orlando. If some team wants to overpay Danny Green in a similar fashion, then we'll watch Green leave as well.

Btw, in that same summer, the Spurs signed Manu to a new 6yr/55M contract and Tony to a 6yr/66M extension.

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

He was one of the guys on the UNC championship team. I'd say he's got clutch moments, but as a streaky shooter you never know.

He also led a near-comeback against Dallas that was the start of a tear the Spurs went on. After that Dallas game the Spurs were 12-9 - but finished 38-7.

Good point. It's almost like Green started the incredible run the Spurs went on in that Dallas game...and then ended it when his 3 point shooting fell off a cliff in the WCF.

[Keepin' it real]

While it’s possible that Green ultimately faltered due to the pressure of deep postseason play, it’s also quite possible that he suffered from regression to the mean.

No, the team suffered "regression to the mean." I was universally criticized for almost hoping (for mathematical reasons) the Spurs would lose a game or two in the earlier rounds of the playoffs. I feared that if they lost a game and didn't immediately bounce back with a win in the following game, it would all avalanche into another embarrassing 4-game skid to end the season, ala 2004. Boy, do I hate being right all the time (... ok, most of the time :hat).

Danny Green, on the other hand, did not suffer regression of anything. The man straight up choked, and it was nauseating to watch. He's a choking cancer of a player, just like Matt Bonner, so I HOPE he gets a better offer elsewhere.

In general, I'm all for second chances, but in this case, given the circumstances, I say fuck Danny Green. Let's burn that bridge and move on.

[K-State Spur]

The player that I would trade Green for that is plausible for the Spurs as well is OJ Mayo. The guy is a better defender from my observation

under no scenario is that true.

[K-State Spur]

LJ, after reading all that, now you have me scared that somebody is going to offer him a wesley matthews type deal...

[8FOR!3]

He was one of the guys on the UNC championship team. I'd say he's got clutch moments, but as a streaky shooter you never know.

He also led a near-comeback against Dallas that was the start of a tear the Spurs went on. After that Dallas game the Spurs were 12-9 - but finished 38-7.

Yeah it's hard to call a guy who was one of the leaders on a national championship team a choker regardless of what he does. Anybody who watched Green's contributions to the team last year should understand he deserves another contract offer in San Antonio. If his value is too high and we can't afford him, that's another thing.

[K-State Spur]

Danny Green, on the other hand, did not suffer regression of anything. The man straight up choked, and it was nauseating to watch. He's a choking cancer of a player, just like Matt Bonner, so I HOPE he gets a better offer elsewhere.

He played an outstanding series in the first round (which Bonner has never done), played an even better second round series (which Bonner has never done), and then played poorly in 3 of the first 4 games against OKC - and was banished to the bench for the rest of the series.

So he choked for 3 of 12 playoff games. ...in his first legit postseason.

Newsflash: Young guys typically struggle in the playoffs. That's why contenders typically fill their role slots with veterans. Most guys aren't Robert Horry clutch straight out of the shoot (and even Horry had some shitty playoff series).

[dylankerouac]

Thanks for putting this together. I continue to hope the team resigns Green.

[racm]

Yeah it's hard to call a guy who was one of the leaders on a national championship team a choker regardless of what he does. Anybody who watched Green's contributions to the team last year should understand he deserves another contract offer in San Antonio. If his value is too high and we can't afford him, that's another thing.

Looking back I still wonder why Indiana picked Psycho T ahead of Ty Lawson and Green... but then it's the Pacers and their fetish for white bigs. :lol


He played an outstanding series in the first round (which Bonner has never done), played an even better second round series (which Bonner has never done), and then played poorly in 3 of the first 4 games against OKC - and was banished to the bench for the rest of the series.

So he choked for 3 of 12 playoff games. ...in his first legit postseason.

Newsflash: Young guys typically struggle in the playoffs. That's why contenders typically fill their role slots with veterans. Most guys aren't Robert Horry clutch straight out of the shoot (and even Horry had some shitty playoff series).

Yeah, if you think about the current Spurs they're the inverse of the championship teams. Instead of surrounding the young core with older role players/ring chasers, the veteran big 3 are surrounded by young role players.

A team like that doesn't get to the conference finals most of the time, so what the Spurs did this season was 2003-04 level of overachieving near the tail end of the season. Problem is, Tim can't carry the team like he used to, so it's up to Tony and to a slightly lesser extent Manu.

[dbestpro]

However, as Green hit iron on three-pointer after three-pointer against the Oklahoma City Thunder, it was easy to grow frustrated.

Sounds like an article that would have been written for Bonner or RMJ after their first playoff collapse.

[freetiago]

people forget about all the big shots he hit during the reg season and in the playoffs
he won an okc game by stealing an inbound pass during the reg season
him and leonard were torching utah and were the guys doing the scoring during those 20-0 type runs
during the clippers he was guarding chris paul during the end games
he was also draining 3s with griffin in his face in close games in the 4th quarter

chokers dont make plays like this

y9ShJ8Sbbdk


during that same game in ot they inbounded the ball to the king with close to 10 seconds left
who promptly decided to urinate himself and let vince carter steal the ball

[Mel_13]

Sounds like an article that would have been written for Bonner or RMJ after their first playoff collapse.

Not really.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Unless there is a minimum/BAE type of player who'd be better than Danny Green, which imo is not the case, then losing him would weaken the team as there's no money for a replacement. Hopefully no dumbass GM grossly overpays him.

[Knoxxx]

Green was on a torrid 3 PT shooting stretch as the Spurs rolled through the first two round of the playoffs. The issue was that round by round the perimeter defense gets tighter. By the time we played OKC, he had to have an extremely quick trigger to get the shot off. He forced a few, missed a few open ones, and Pop panicked. Instead of staying the course, he went heavy with Gary Neal, which didn't work any better.

Same issue was evident with Bonner. Once the wide open 3s dried up, he didn't know what to do. With his short arms and low release, he just can't get a good shot off under any kind of pressure.

Contrast that with S Jax, who has a high overhead release. No problem getting the shot off, and we know what he does to pressure...

[LongtimeSpursFan]

Green is a solid player that we have on the cheap. He plays with lots of energy and can create havoc on defense. Has ability to hit the three pointer that I dont think any of us saw coming. If he can continue to hit the three pointer at the 40+ percent clip or higher then we are in good shape at the 2. I'm not going to fault at a player that had some stuggles in the WCF.
What I'd like to see Green improve on is his ability to dribble under pressure, finish at the rim and his passing. At this point, if he is not catching and shooting I begin to cringe if he decides to do something with the ball receiving.

[SenorSpur]

Just from watching the games, it was always apparent to me how valuable Green has been as a regular contributor to the Spurs - from the starting 2-guard spot. I was quite surprised as to how well he was playing and how much he had developed from last season.

After the Spurs having watched Bonner choke his playoff life away for four straight years, I can easily forgive Green for his regression in the WCFs - and everyone else should too. While it's still early in his career, there is nothing to suggest Green will not continue his upward surge in development.

If I wasn't already convinced how much the Spurs needed to resign Green, after reading this, I certainly am now. Thanks for taking the time and effort of putting this together.

[silverblackfan]

I like Green and don't hold the WCF against him. He played well all season and in the first 2 rounds with passion and confidence. He brings a lot of the small things that help the defense work, like tips, blocks, pressure and long arms. Smart player who will only get better and I don't think the Spurs have a replacement for the same cost.
I just hope that some other GM does not spend the money for him. He is certainly worth the qualifying offer.

[SenorSpur]

One other important reason why the Spurs cannot afford to lose Danny Green? The decline of Manu Ginobili. Unfortunately for all of us who've marveled at Manu's greatness, it's obvious that he's undergoing some serious decline - with age, injury risk and production.

While Green is nowhere near the playmaker, shot creator or star-in-the-making that Manu was in his prime, Green does serve as a nice transition option as the Spurs starting 2-guard.

[dbestpro]

Not really.

Yes really. Green is okay, maybe even good, but he is just not good enough and has all the trappings of a crunch time playoff failure.

[pad300]

My opinion is that the Spurs should match any offer that their Early Bird Rights will allow them too.
All decisions are cap decisions. If the Spurs don't re-sign Green, they will need to use an exception to get another 2 guard. We want to use our MLE to get Diaw and/or Lorbek, not find a replacement for Green. There is no way that the LLE or the vet min gets a as good or better replacement for Green.
Even if we did find such a player, why not sign him in addition to having Green on the squad? For those who say Green's another Bonner, a) it's his first playoffs and he did exceptionally well in the first 2 series, b) unless you think he's Ray Allen in disguise, his shooting was going to regress to the mean sooner or later c) he's not 1 dimensional like Bonner. If Bonner isn't hitting his shots and spreading the floor, he doing nothing useful. Green meanwhile, is a great rebounder (for a 2 guard), and remains our best perimeter defender (as the stats show, "against the Thunder, Green was again the team’s best defender in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions"!).
Finally, If there is no offer: don't bid against yourself! If he asks the Spurs for an offer, I would definitely offer a full 4 years, and maybe up to $16 million... Trade of length (years) vs. cost per year. I've seen enough to say that I'm willing to live with him on the team as a 2 guard. He's one of those guys that plays to the team philosophy. As Pop puts it, "He's gotten over himself." It's a very valuable trait for role-players.

[4down]

Your post has all the trappings of a critical thinking failure, man. If he's good you keep him. Matt Bonner and RMJ are not and were not good, so they should go. Green, however is a keeper at the right price. Especially if by some miracle a 2.7 MM QO gets it done.

Seriously, how do you compare a good defender and decent offensive player who shoots an efctive 3 pt% and also allows Pop to manage Manu's minutes effectively with Roger Bricklayer and Coach B? Sample size is key.

I agree Green looked piss poor in the Thunder series, but maybe bring some real counterpoint analysis to the original post and a better suggestion than Timvp's idea of keeping Green at a reasonable cost if you want him gone.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I wonder if Danny reads this and holds out for more money.

[joeyjfive]

I would like for Danny Green to be in the silver and black next season. He happened to struggle at worst possible time but he brings a lot to the table defensively and there is no one else we can bring in to fill the hole he would leave.

Of course if the Spurs somehow miracled their way into getting Batum and played him at the SG, then by all means let Danny walk but since that isnt going to happen, we must re-sign him.

[wildbill2u]

I'd like to see Green back, but not with an overpaid long term contract. He deserves more money than he was paid this year, but we've seen one year wonders before.

[Big Empty]

It was his real first playoff experience. I like him despite the fallout he had against the Thunder. I remember kobe throwing up bricks against utah in his early years in the playoffs. Im not saying this guy is anywhere near that level lol all im saying is he showed a ton of upside. Give him a chance to flourish. Great article

[Mel_13]

Yes really. Green is okay, maybe even good, but he is just not good enough and has all the trappings of a crunch time playoff failure.

No, he doesn't.

He was extremely effective in the first two rounds. Neither Bonner nor Mason ever had any such success.

[Knoxxx]

Green has limitations, for example he won't ever be a Westbrook type of dunker when finishing around the rim. Then again, those are a very select few players that can do that, D Wade comes to mind as already mentioned. Also Green is doing other things to compensate on defense, like the shotblocking which I view as a function of being a tenacious and smart defender.

The biggest missing piece to Green's game is a midrange and off the dribble game like what Neal has. Neal has that ability to hit a jumpshot anywhere inside the arc, or throw in a pretty banker off the glass. Given that Green has some athletic limitations when finishing around the rim, that type of midrange game would really round him out nicely. Not a very common skill set though.

So at this point anything in the $3-$4 million range seems like a fair deal for all. We can hope he develops that midrange game and overachieves, in which case he could warrant a $5-$10 million annual deal after reupping.

Given that, I'd say 3-4 years, $9-$16 million range. Either side could come out ahead in this deal, depending on his ongoing development which is an unknown.

I don't think though, that this guy has any fear whatsoever, and that is the type of guy I want on the team. A refusal to back down and give an inch.

[AFBlue]

No, he doesn't.

He was extremely effective in the first two rounds. Neither Bonner nor Mason ever had any such success.

And neither Bonner nor Mason were considered solid defenders. I think that's as key a component for Green to be brought back as his ability to spread the floor and knock down open threes.

I also think his shot creation ability is undervalued. I'm not advocating isos for him, but he's better than a stand-still 3pt shooter like James Jones.

[benefactor]

:lol greys in this thread that want to let Green walk


All decisions are cap decisions. If the Spurs don't re-sign Green, they will need to use an exception to get another 2 guard. We want to use our MLE to get Diaw and/or Lorbek, not find a replacement for Green. There is no way that the LLE or the vet min gets a as good or better replacement for Green.

Bingo. Even if you are still feeling butthurt about the WCF and have made up your mind that Green is now a choker after one playoff series his production still has to be replaced...that will cause one of the exceptions to be used. The Spurs really can't afford that.

Remember, this is a team approaching transition. Re-signing Danny Green for the next 4 years doesn't make or break the Spurs title chances because there is a good chance the window is closed anyway.

[SenorSpur]

No, he doesn't.

He was extremely effective in the first two rounds. Neither Bonner nor Mason ever had any such success.

This too.

I'm amazed at the vitriol being lashed at Green because of one poor playoff series, while chokers like Bonner have been hanging around this team for years.

Green already has more produced better playoff production skins in his first go-round (Jazz, Clippers) than Bonner has his entire Spurs career.

[pad300]

:lol greys in this thread that want to let Green walk

Bingo. Even if you are still feeling butthurt about the WCF and have made up your mind that Green is now a choker after one playoff series his production still has to be replaced...that will cause one of the exceptions to be used. The Spurs really can't afford that.

Remember, this is a team approaching transition. Re-signing Danny Green for the next 4 years doesn't make or break the Spurs title chances because there is a good chance the window is closed anyway.

Gotta tell you, that last bit I bolded, is utterly wrong benefactor...

The only way we keep the window open a crack is to improve our bigs. If we spend part of the MLE on a replacement for Danny Green, we can't improve our frontline with that money. That makes re-singing Danny one of several interlinked key steps to having a shot.

[timvp]

... and Green's market value just took a big jump. Landry Fields was really good as a rookie but it's difficult to argue he was much better than Danny Green last year.


http://oi46.tinypic.com/mo11.jpg



Then again, Toronto has the dumbest front office in the NBA. Let's hope the market settles down a bit or else the Spurs really might be in danger of losing Green.

[Bruno]

Nice writeup. :tu

The most interesting for me what the part about his defense. I've had some difficulties to evaluate him on that end of the court since he usually doesn't really shine one way or another.

If a team, with cap space, really likes Green , Spurs could lost him easily. Spurs can't match a deal that start above $5.1M so even a frontloaded $15M/3 years contract will be impossible to match. What should help Spurs is that Green is saying he wants to stay in SA. I guess he likely will give Spurs the chance to give him a similar contract before signing an unmatchable offer sheet.

[K-State Spur]

... and Green's market value just took a big jump. Landry Fields was really good as a rookie but it's difficult to argue he was much better than Danny Green last year.


http://oi46.tinypic.com/mo11.jpg



Then again, Toronto has the dumbest front office in the NBA. Let's hope the market settles down a bit or else the Spurs really might be in danger of losing Green.

True, but Landry Fields is a special situation where Toronto is trying to give NY a poison pill as part of a master plan to sign Nash.

I don't think it's part of a greater overall market trend of slightly above average 2 guards.

Ferry's probably the greatest worry at the moment with the cap space he has cleared and becoming a darkhorse for Howard (who he would promptly want to surround with as many shooters as possible).

[Shastafarian]

Then again, Toronto has the dumbest front office in the NBA.

http://www.nba.com/media/dleague/king_300_101111.jpg

"Look smart look smart look smart look sm....HEY A BUTTERFLY!"

[timvp]

True, but Landry Fields is a special situation where Toronto is trying to give NY a poison pill as part of a master plan to sign Nash.Yeah, let's hope that's all it is. Otherwise, if players like Fields are worth $6.7M, Green for $4.5 to $5M doesn't sound to outrageous.


Ferry's probably the greatest worry at the moment with the cap space he has cleared and becoming a darkhorse for Howard (who he would promptly want to surround with as many shooters as possible).I don't think Ferry is a threat. He's going to keep as much cap space open as possible and go for the ultimate home run of Howard and another max player (CP3?).

[z0sa]

"The statistics tell us, at some point in time, Green was going to experience a dry spell. If we chalk up his Western Conference Finals struggles to inevitable regression, the positives on the rest of Green’s resume are difficult to ignore."

There's no such thing as inevitable regression when you're being left wide open over and over and over and play with the best passing offense in the League. This team was something special offensively and many trends simply do not apply in last year's Spurs' case, IMHO.

The pressure hit, and Green folded. And not just his shot. He was sent to school defensively, as well, mostly by RWB. That's why Pop benched him - his entire game was affected because he completely lost his confidence, something that never bodes well when you're being left open every time.

Besides, this team is built around basically never having a regression to mean unless a team focuses on taking that particular piece out of the puzzle at the cost of leaving others open or lanes to drive. Although Bonner is obviously at fault as well, Green played a big role all season but absolutely choked on the pressure of the WCFs. He possibly played the role of biggest roleplayer culprit as to who cost the Spurs the Thunder series by not simply doing what he had done all season, which was play smart and heady defense, and knock in your 3 pointers off ball movement. I saw a few moves from him during the WCFs I hadn't seen him pull off successfully all season ... he just totally lost himself out there.

He probably comes back but I could care less if he does, tbh, because he cannot be depended upon to play a big role on either end once the pressure increases into playoff mode. It'd be nice if his defensive intensity had improved as his shot failed or something, anything to show he was fighting hard, but everything just fell off a cliff and you could see how nervous he was in his eyes. Very disheartening and frustrating. I know one will argue about his Player pairing defensive numbers or whatever but one needs only the eye test and the fact he never took RWB out of his comfort zone to know he was frustrated on both ends.

[Knoxxx]

What should help Spurs is that Green is saying he wants to stay in SA. I guess he likely will give Spurs the chance to give him a similar contract before signing an unmatchable offer sheet.

Good to know, I had not heard that. Link? Not hard to believe either way.

Hopefully this game of chicken will end soon, if that is what is happening. I suspect the Spurs are in fine shape with Green, and are more concerned with Lorbek/Diaw/De Colo and whatever halfway decent shot blocking big we can bring into the fold.

[Bruno]

Good to know, I had not heard that. Link? Not hard to believe either way.

http://blog.mysanantonio.com/spursnation/2012/07/02/payday-coming-for-free-agent-green/


“I really do like San Antonio,” Green said. “Hopefully, they have faith in me and will do what they need to do to bring me back.”

[Knoxxx]

http://blog.mysanantonio.com/spursnation/2012/07/02/payday-coming-for-free-agent-green/

Thanks and good to know. Here is another quote I like a lot:

Green says more is at stake for him than just the number of figures on his next paycheck.

“A lot of young guys are just looking for the money,” said Green, who won a national championship at North Carolina in 2009. “For me, it’s a balance of the money, the team, the fit. I’ve been in a winning organization my whole life. I want to continue to be on a winning team.”

[Cant_Be_Faded]

After being eliminated, green tweeted that he realized he really let the spurs down by missing shots, and really wants the spurs to bring back the entire team to make another title run.


But....money talks.


I can't even begin to fathom the bad rotation the team will be stuck with, if we lose green.

Freaking knew all that talk about the new CBA bringing player contracts down would be bull

[Cant_Be_Faded]

You know what? Even if Green gets a higher offer, the spurs should match anyways

1) its not like this team has not overpaid worse talent,( effing Bonner)
2) the roster hole will be scary scary
3) does the front office really need as much free space as possible? Duncan has intimated he will be flexible, and if the spurs have space to throwat a higher level FA on the future, the spurs will more than likely overpay someone else

Danny deserves what his market value is. Had he sunk a few more shots against okc, then chilled off against Miami, he'd be getting even sicker offers

[MannyIsGod]

:lol Yeah, the CBA will always mean shit when it comes to stupid owners throwing around bad contracts.

[DPG21920]

You know what? Even if Green gets a higher offer, the spurs should match anyways

1) its not like this team has not overpaid worse talent,( effing Bonner)
2) the roster hole will be scary scary
3) does the front office really need as much free space as possible? Duncan has intimated he will be flexible, and if the spurs have space to throwat a higher level FA on the future, the spurs will more than likely overpay someone else

Danny deserves what his market value is. Had he sunk a few more shots against okc, then chilled off against Miami, he'd be getting even sicker offers

The issue really is not what the Spurs can afford/want to pay, it's that if he signs an offer sheet that in year one is worth more than 5.1M, the Spurs cannot match it.

[pad300]

The issue really is not what the Spurs can afford/want to pay, it's that if he signs an offer sheet that in year one is worth more than 5.1M, the Spurs cannot match it.

Yep, match up to 5.1, because that's what the CBA will let you. But don't start bidding against yourself... no need to run up the price any higher than market.

[kobyz]

to me, Danny Green = Brandon Rush, and Brandon Rush is cheaper, so if we loosing Green we could replace him with Rush!

[Cant_Be_Faded]

The issue really is not what the Spurs can afford/want to pay, it's that if he signs an offer sheet that in year one is worth more than 5.1M, the Spurs cannot match it.

So the way it works its that if he gets offered more than that, he's gone?
We aren't allowed to resign him or offer a new contract?

[K-State Spur]

So the way it works its that if he gets offered more than that, he's gone?
We aren't allowed to resign him or offer a new contract?

If he signs any deal for less than that - we can match and keep him.

If he SIGNS any deal for more than that, he's gone.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Ah okay. Well hopefully the spurs hook him up with a contract towards the max we can give, if that's what it takes. Its easy to forget how well appreciated he was for most of the season

[Knoxxx]

I really doubt a team will pony up the cap space for Green. I think we are sitting fine with him, and of course no state income tax in Texas. ;-)

[SenorSpur]

Yeah, let's hope that's all it is. Otherwise, if players like Fields are worth $6.7M, Green for $4.5 to $5M doesn't sound to outrageous.

This kind of crap is what skews the perceived market value of some players and floods the market with players who are overpaid.

[Budkin]

Agreed 100%

[Brazil]

The spurs can afford to lose Danny Green, they cannot afford to lose Tim tough. Not saying it is not important to resign him but it's not like it would mean the end of the franchise.

Our chance for a title next year is 3% by Timvp estimation with him, 2% without him ? Our chance to have a solid year 50 RS wins is what 60% with him ? 50% without him ?

[TD 21]

Yeah, let's hope that's all it is. Otherwise, if players like Fields are worth $6.7M, Green for $4.5 to $5M doesn't sound to outrageous.

I wouldn't be worried about that; K-State Spur has got it right.

Good work; I echo your sentiments. If Green does get a 3-4 year offer sheet for $5M annually, I'd probably match that too. Sure, it's an overpayment, but do they really want to lose him because he makes what, a million more annually than they'd prefer? The goal is still contending for the next probably two seasons and as you alluded to, they'd be hard pressed to do so without him. Also, if he repeats the season he just had -- even if his 3pt% drops to about 40 --, it's not like that contract would be an albatross.

But what they should do is offer slightly more than they'd probably prefer right now, such as $10-12M over three years as opposed to $9M and hope he takes it. I'd rather they do that than risk someone offer sheeting him for the full MLE.

[Gagnrath]

With KG taking around 10 mill per year, I don't see Duncan being valued at that much more, I know he was willing to sign for less to get players in the past so the spurs will probably pay him a little more now, but this is probably around 2 mill less than speculation was pre-off season.

[pjjrfan]

You could use the same argument on Green's shooting slump for Bonner and we all know that is not the case. However offense aside I also see Green's value on the defensive end and I would hate to lose this guy. I remember he did fantastic defensive stints against nash, paul, and several others where his length and height caused problems. We got to keep him at least to see if he can come around on our next playoff go round.

[racm]

He was part of the Chris Paul Defensive Committee and look what happened. Bad shooting, not going for more than 5 shot attempts until Game 4, turnovers all over.

[benefactor]

Gotta tell you, that last bit I bolded, is utterly wrong benefactor...

The only way we keep the window open a crack is to improve our bigs. If we spend part of the MLE on a replacement for Danny Green, we can't improve our frontline with that money. That makes re-singing Danny one of several interlinked key steps to having a shot.
Hmm...I think you misunderstood me. I am for retaining Green and not using the exceptions.

[Solid D]

timvp, I PM'd you about this...FYI.

[tesseractive]

The pressure hit, and Green folded. And not just his shot. He was sent to school defensively, as well, mostly by RWB. That's why Pop benched him - his entire game was affected because he completely lost his confidence, something that never bodes well when you're being left open every time.
He's young. Other players have learned how to keep their shooting percentage from affecting their effort in other parts of the game, and there's no reason to assume Danny can't. He's smart, and he's not selfish -- and both of those help as well.

If we dumped players every time they choked in a series, Horry would have been gone after 2004. Green's body of work in the first two series merits giving him another chance.

[Mel_13]

Well, George Hill is the latest to get overpaid, securing a 5yr/40M extension to stay with the Pacers.

So...

Is it time to call Green's agent and offer an MLE-sized deal now or do we wait it out and hope that the stupid money evaporates from the market before someone offers Danny a contract we can't match?

[Ice009]

Well all these insane contracts have screwed us over. Owners deserved a hard cap after seeing this shit.

I have no idea how the Spurs are supposed to sign anybody with these crazy offers being thrown around.

[TD 21]

Well, George Hill is the latest to get overpaid, securing a 5yr/40M extension to stay with the Pacers.

So...

Is it time to call Green's agent and offer an MLE-sized deal now or do we wait it out and hope that the stupid money evaporates from the market before someone offers Danny a contract we can't match?

"We" do neither. What they should do is offer him 2/$8M or 3/$12M. He might accept either (the value to the former is that, if he can duplicate or exceed what he did last season, then he's locked in for less term under market value), because, as you alluded to, if he waits too long, money/positions begin to dry up and he could risk being left having to accept something like 2/$6M or 3/$9M from the Spurs, or -- if he finds that unacceptable -- accepting his qualifying offer and hoping to cash in next season, when he'll be unrestricted.

[Mel_13]

"We" do neither.

:lol



What they should do is offer him 2/$8M or 3/$12M. He might accept either (the value to the former is that, if he can duplicate or exceed what he did last season, then he's locked in for less term under market value), because, as you alluded to, if he waits too long, money/positions begin to dry up and he could risk being left having to accept something like 2/$6M or 3/$9M from the Spurs, or -- if he finds that unacceptable -- accepting his qualifying offer and hoping to cash in next season, when he'll be unrestricted.

I agree with your call for a proactive approach. I believe it gives us the greatest chance for success.

[Wild Cobra Kai]

The issue really is not what the Spurs can afford/want to pay, it's that if he signs an offer sheet that in year one is worth more than 5.1M, the Spurs cannot match it.

At that price, I'm not sure they'd want to. OTOH, if a team tried to front load it, say 5.5/3/3 Danny would probably bring it to the Spurs to see if they would do that deal evenly spread.

[Mel_13]

At that price, I'm not sure they'd want to. OTOH, if a team tried to front load it, say 5.5/3/3 Danny would probably bring it to the Spurs to see if they would do that deal evenly spread.

Not possible under the CBA.

[Wild Cobra Kai]

Not possible under the CBA.

The concept, or the amounts I used?

[Mel_13]

The concept, or the amounts I used?

Maximum year to year decreases are limited in the same way as maximum year to year increases in a free agent contract. So 4.5% per year up or down for a team signing another team's free agent.

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

I can see Danny Ferry offering a contract. However he seems to be busier with bigger issues right now than what to do about Danny Green. I don't think Danny Green is considered to be on the same level as George Hill, probably based on exposure and reputation more than anything else. I still think the right move is to wait and see a little longer with what happens with the big men. A gamble, but winning a title is a long shot and the Spurs need all the best players they can get and that will take winning some rolls of the dice in free agency.

[timvp]

Honestly, when I began this exercise, I was hesitant for the Spurs to give Green much more than $3 million per season. Now, I’ve already talked myself into $4 million. Depending on how the market shakes out for other shooting guards this summer, I might go even higher. Props to the Spurs for not letting the market shake out. And thanks to Danny Green for not holding out for every last possible dime.

Welcome back :tu

[DPG21920]

Timvp - great call on this. This really was an excellent thread. I am a big fan of Danny - not just his skill set, but I like his intangibles. He has had struggles, but when you play sports, you see things in guys sometimes that are more of a softer science - IMO Danny has the makings of a really solid rotational player for years to come.

[DPG21920]

And not just because he talks to me on Twitter :lol

[MarioSpeedwagon]

Maximum year to year decreases are limited in the same way as maximum year to year increases in a free agent contract. So 4.5% per year up or down for a team signing another team's free agent.

jeremy lin says hi

[timvp]

jeremy lin says hi

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q44

[Mel_13]

jeremy lin says hi


http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q44


:lol

[Wild Cobra Kai]

jeremy lin says hi

Lin was a special case. Houston used a loophole to offer him an evenly spread deal that the Knicks would have to back load to fit in their cap. They'd be allowed to do so under the Gilbert Arenas rule, but it would butt fuck them on the tax in year 3.

Houston 8.3/8.3/8.3
NYK 5/5/15

As you can see, the back loaded deal would be for the NYK to re-sign their own FA.

[Mel_13]

Lin was a special case. Houston used a loophole to offer him an evenly spread deal that the Knicks would have to back load to fit in their cap. They'd be allowed to do so under the Gilbert Arenas rule, but it would butt fuck them on the tax in year 3.

Houston 8.3/8.3/8.3
NYK 5/5/15

As you can see, the back loaded deal would be for the NYK to re-sign their own FA.


You're off on the mechanics of the Arenas rule. Check the link.

[Fpoonsie]

He actually RT'd me.

So, I'm on board w/ tha muthafucka.

[cheguevara]

Green is a scrub and will always be a scrub.